Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	A
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	D	C
Dirt Speed	C	A
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	B	A
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	F	B
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	D	A
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	A
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	C	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	D
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	C	F
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	B	D
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	D	F
Route FPS	D	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	D	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	A
Sprint FPS	B	A
Route FPS	B	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	F	B
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	D	A
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	A
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	C	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	D	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	A
Sprint FPS	B	A
Route FPS	B	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	D
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	C	B
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	F	C
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	D	C
Recent
Speed	F	B
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	D	B
Sprint FPS	F	F
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	C	B
Recent
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	B	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	C	B
Dirt Speed	F	C
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	C	B
Recent
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	A	C
Route FPS	B	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	F
Speed	B	F
Early Pace	B	D
Mid Pace	C	F
Late Pace	D	D
Finish Pos	B	D
Dirt Speed	A	C
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	C
Recent
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	F
Late Pace	D	F
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	F
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	F
Mid Pace	C	F
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	C	F
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	C	F
Recent
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	F
Mid Pace	C	F
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	D	F
Route FPS	D	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	D
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	C	B
Distance Speed	C	B
Recent
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	F	F
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	B
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	C	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	B
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	B
Finish Pos	B	B
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	C	A
Distance Speed	B	A
Recent
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	A
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	B	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	A
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	C	B
Finish Pos	C	B
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	B	A
Distance Speed	F	F
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	B	D
Mid Pace	B	D
Late Pace	B	D
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	A	C
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	D
Recent
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	F
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	D	F
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	D	D
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	C	F
Late Pace	D	F
Sprint FPS	B	D
Route FPS	B	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	D
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	A	D
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	C	D
Turf Speed	A	C
Distance Speed	A	C
Recent
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	B	D
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	B	C
Sprint FPS	D	F
Route FPS	C	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	A	D
Late Pace	B	D
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	B	C
Turf Speed	B	C
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	D	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	F
Speed	C	F
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	D	F
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	D	D
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	D	F
Sprint FPS	F	F
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	C	A
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	A	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	C	A
Recent
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	F	F
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	B
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	F	F
Recent
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	A	C
Route FPS	B	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	D
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	C	A
Turf Speed	C	B
Distance Speed	B	A
Recent
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	F	D
Sprint FPS	D	F
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	C
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	D	B
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	D	B
Turf Speed	C	B
Distance Speed	C	B
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	D	F
Route FPS	C	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	F
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	F	D
Dirt Speed	C	F
Turf Speed	C	B
Distance Speed	C	C
Recent
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	F	F
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	F
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	F	F
Finish Pos	C	A
Dirt Speed	C	F
Turf Speed	F	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	F	F
Sprint FPS	F	F
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	F
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	C	A
Dirt Speed	C	F
Turf Speed	C	B
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	C	F
Route FPS	C	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	C	F
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	C	B
Finish Pos	C	A
Dirt Speed	C	F
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	B	B
Recent
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	C	F
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	C	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	D
Mid Pace	A	D
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	C	A
Dirt Speed	C	F
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	A	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	F
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	F	F
Finish Pos	C	A
Dirt Speed	C	F
Turf Speed	F	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	F	F
Sprint FPS	F	F
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	D
Mid Pace	B	D
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	C	A
Dirt Speed	C	F
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	A	B
Recent
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	B	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	D
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	B	A
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	B	D
Mid Pace	B	D
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	B	A
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	B
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	F	D
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	B
Recent
Speed	F	C
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	F	C
Sprint FPS	F	D
Route FPS	F	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	A
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	F	C
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	D	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	C	A
Recent
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	D	B
Route FPS	C	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	B	A
Recent
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	A
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	B	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	A
Speed	F	C
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	F	B
Turf Speed	A	C
Distance Speed	D	B
Recent
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	D	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	F	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	C	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	C
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	F	B
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	B	B
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	F	D
Route FPS	F	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	C
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	A
Finish Pos	C	B
Dirt Speed	C	A
Turf Speed	C	A
Distance Speed	B	B
Recent
Speed	D	A
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	A
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	B	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	C
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	F	C
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	B	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	B	A
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	D	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	D	B
Distance Speed	C	C
Recent
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	A
Sprint FPS	A	C
Route FPS	C	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Speed	F	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	D	B
Finish Pos	F	C
Dirt Speed	D	C
Turf Speed	B	A
Distance Speed	B	A
Recent
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	A
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	C	F
Recent
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	C	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	A
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	B	D
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	D	B
Finish Pos	D	B
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	C
Recent
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	A
Sprint FPS	B	A
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	C	F
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	B	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	C	F
Recent
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	D	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	C	B
Finish Pos	D	B
Dirt Speed	F	F
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	C
Recent
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	A
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	B	B

TL;DR

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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

We have arrived at a spectacular Saturday card at the Fair Grounds, headlined by a quartet of stakes races celebrating the best of the Louisiana-bred division alongside open company turf action. The feature races—the Red Camelia, Edward J. Johnston Memorial, Star Guitar, Black Gold, and Charged Cotton Stakes—have drawn competitive fields that blend established class with rising talent.

Today’s card serves as a crucial bridge toward the Louisiana Derby, with several 3-year-olds looking to earn black type. The rail on the turf course is set at 14 feet, which typically plays fair but can occasionally tighten the turns, favoring horses with tactical agility over deep closers who lose ground sweeping wide.

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecast: High of 72°F, Partly Cloudy. Winds SW at 8 mph. Dirt: Fast. Turf: Firm (Rail at 14 feet).

Track Bias Analysis

Dirt: The main track at Fair Grounds has been playing Honest this meet, though early speed holding the rail has been a profitable angle in sprints. In routes, stalkers sitting just off the pace in the 2-3 path have found success. Watch for a potential inside speed bias if the track dries out further by the afternoon. Turf: With the rail at 14 feet, the course often rewards horses who can save ground. Being stuck 3-4 wide on both turns is a death knell here. Look for horses drawing inside posts (1-4) or those with jockeys like Florent Geroux or Marcelino Pedroza Jr., who excel at working out ground-saving trips in New Orleans.

Race 1: Red Camelia Stakes

Post Time: 12:45 PM CST Distance: 1 Mile (Turf) Conditions: Fillies and Mares 4yo+, LA Bred. Purse $100,000.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario here centers on Highly Wicked (1). She possesses natural early foot and, breaking from the rail, has no choice but to go. Rising Inflation (6) has tactical speed and will likely press the issue from the outside. If they duel, it could set up for a stalker like Tommie G (3), but in a small field of seven, a moderate pace is more likely, favoring the front-runners.

Key Contenders

Rising Inflation (6) enters this spot in formidable form for trainer Jonathan Wong. Her ability to sit just off the pace and pounce makes her dangerous. She has been consistent in the state-bred ranks and gets the services of Isaac Castillo, who is riding aggressively this meet. Her recent Speed Figures suggest she is the one to beat if she handles the mile distance, which she should.

Highly Wicked (1) is the speed of the speed. Trained by Sam David Jr., she is a specialist at this configuration. While she can occasionally be run down late, the rail draw is a massive advantage today. If Pedroza can lull the field to sleep with a 24.00 opening quarter, she may never be caught. She is a must-use on top tickets.

Secondary Choices

Tommie G (3) is a hard-knocking mare who rarely runs a bad race. She doesn’t have the explosive turn of foot of the top two, but she grinds out checks. If the pace collapses, she will be the first one picking up the pieces.

Longshots

Kalil (2) steps up in class but has shown flashes of talent. At 4 years old, she has more upside than the older mares in this field. Jareth Loveberry is an excellent turf rider who can extract maximum value here, though a minor award seems her ceiling.

Betting Strategy

The race likely goes through the #6 and #1. An Exacta Box 1-6 is the prudent Play, with a saver Win bet on #6 if she floats above 2-1.

Selections

Win: Rising Inflation (6) – 35% confidence Place: Highly Wicked (1) – 30% confidence Show: Tommie G (3) – 20% confidence Alternative: Kalil (2) – 10% confidence

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight

Post Time: 01:15 PM CST Distance: 6 Furlongs (Dirt) Conditions: LA Bred Maidens, F/M 3yo+. Purse $54,000.

Pace Analysis

A scramble is expected here. Divineintervention (2) shows speed on paper, but Southern Queen (3) adds blinkers (or keeps them) and draws well. Day Storm (5) may also send from the outside. Expect a contested opening half-mile.

Key Contenders

Southern Queen (3) looks ready to graduate. The Herman Ladner barn has been patient, and this filly has shown enough early grit to suggest 6 furlongs is her game. She fits the “preference to horses not started for less than $25k” condition, implying her connections have protected her, believing in her quality.

Divineintervention (2) is the logical threat from the Mike Maker barn. Maker’s runners in state-bred companies are always dangerous. She carries 125 lbs as an older horse, which is a slight concern against 3-year-olds carrying 117, but her back class should carry her through.

Secondary Choices

What's Love (1) draws the rail for Bret Calhoun. The 3-year-old filly gets a significant weight break (117 lbs) and Brian Hernandez Jr., who is a master at saving ground on the dirt. If she breaks clean, she’s a major player.

Longshots

Cava De Oro (8) returns from a vet scratch in January. If Joseph Foster has her right, she could pop at a price from the outside post, where she avoids the kickback.

Betting Strategy

Focus on the 3-year-olds getting weight. Win bet on #3. Exacta box 2-3.

Selections

Win: Southern Queen (3) – 28% confidence Place: Divineintervention (2) – 25% confidence Show: What's Love (1) – 18% confidence Alternative: Cava De Oro (8) – 12% confidence

Race 3: Claiming $7,500

Post Time: 01:50 PM CST Distance: 1 Mile (Dirt) Conditions: 4yo+, NW4 or NW2 since Aug 2025.

Pace Analysis

This is a bottom-level claiming event where pace is often erratic. Proven Hope (1) has speed and the rail. Skipper's Pride (3) will likely force the issue.

Key Contenders

Proven Hope (1) drops into a very winnable spot. The rail draw at a mile on dirt is advantageous, and Isaac Castillo stays aboard. His recent form suggests he can handle this company easily if he runs his race.

Daryl's Bolt (6) represents the Joe Sharp barn. Sharp is deadly with claimers dropping in class. The horse fits the “NW2 since August” condition perfectly and Ben Curtis is a strong finisher.

Secondary Choices

Soul Coaxing (2) is an 8-year-old veteran. He knows where the finish line is and will likely sit a ground-saving trip. He is a safe use for the bottom of trifectas.

Longshots

Keys Included (5) is a lightweight (113 lbs with apprentice allowance possibly). In a race of tiring veterans, a massive weight break can be the difference maker in the final furlong.

Betting Strategy

A chaotic race. Keep it simple. Win bet on #6 Daryl's Bolt.

Selections

Win: Daryl's Bolt (6) – 25% confidence Place: Proven Hope (1) – 22% confidence Show: Soul Coaxing (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: Skipper's Pride (3) – 10% confidence

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight

Post Time: 02:25 PM CST Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) Conditions: 3yo Fillies. Purse $54,000.

Pace Analysis

In these turf maiden routes, the pace is often slow. High Street Pizzaz (10) might send from the outside to clear. Adorable Moments (1) has the rail and should secure position.

Key Contenders

Lowenstein (IRE) (6) is the one to watch. Trainer Brendan Walsh excels with European imports, and this filly has likely been targeting this meet. The “IRE” suffix is often a license to Print money in maiden turf routes at Fair Grounds. Pedroza riding is a huge vote of confidence.

Dagmara (12) draws the parking lot but is trained by Brad Cox. You simply cannot ignore Cox in these spots. Jareth Loveberry will have his Work cut out for him to overcome post 12, but if she has a turn of foot, she can circle this field.

Secondary Choices

Twirling Daisy (2) gives trainer D. Whitworth Beckman a strong hand. Drawing inside allows her to save ground while the 12 has to Work. Isaac Castillo is a plus.

Raging Bloom (3) for Kenny McPeek. McPeek’s young horses often improve drastically with distance. At 1 1/16 miles, she should find her stride.

Longshots

Butterfly Jasmine (11) is a massive longshot but could spice up the exotics if the pace collapses.

Betting Strategy

Lowenstein (IRE) is a Standout Play. Win bet. Exacta 6 with 2, 12.

Selections

Win: Lowenstein (IRE) (6) – 32% confidence Place: Dagmara (12) – 20% confidence Show: Twirling Daisy (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: Raging Bloom (3) – 10% confidence

Race 5: Allowance

Post Time: 03:00 PM CST Distance: 6 Furlongs (Dirt) Conditions: F/M 3yo+, NW1X. Purse $55,000.

Pace Analysis

Just Bluffing (1) and Solemn Vow (2) are the main speed influences inside. Trust Fund Philly (5) will likely stalk.

Key Contenders

Wondrous (3) is the class of the field. Another Brendan Walsh trainee, she sits perfectly mid-pack in a sprint that should have Honest fractions. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. fits her running style perfectly.

Autumn Rhythm (4) for Eddie Kenneally is consistent and fits these conditions well. Ben Curtis is a strong aggressive rider who will keep her in contention throughout.

Secondary Choices

Solemn Vow (2) comes from the Al Stall barn. Stall’s horses typically improve with racing, and she gets Brian Hernandez Jr. If the rail bias is active, she moves up.

Longshots

No Time Left (6) is a 3-year-old facing older mares but gets a weight break.

Betting Strategy

Trifecta Key: 3 over 2, 4, 5.

Selections

Win: Wondrous (3) – 30% confidence Place: Autumn Rhythm (4) – 25% confidence Show: Solemn Vow (2) – 20% confidence Alternative: Trust Fund Philly (5) – 12% confidence

Race 6: Edward J. Johnston Memorial Stakes

Post Time: 03:35 PM CST Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) Conditions: 4yo+, LA Bred. Purse $100,000.

Pace Analysis

Sippin On Gin (1) breaking from the rail has to go. Cajun Mitole (3) also possesses high cruising speed. The pace should be Honest, setting up for a stalker/closer.

Key Contenders

Allnight Moonlight (2) is a Louisiana-bred Standout. He carries top weight (124 lbs) for a reason—he is the class of the field. Tim Thornton knows this horse inside and out. From post 2, he can sit right behind the speed and get first run. A major threat.

Cajun Mitole (3) is dangerous if left alone on the lead. While there is other speed, his stamina is proven.

Secondary Choices

Benoit (7) is a solid turf performer who will be running late. James Graham is an excellent turf tactician and will have him timed for a late run.

Wicked Secret (5) is consistent but may find the top two a bit too classy.

Longshots

Boss Of All Bosses (9) for Mike Maker. Any Maker turf horse is dangerous, even from a wide post.

Betting Strategy

Allnight Moonlight is the most likely winner. Win bet #2. Exacta 2-3 straight.

Selections

Win: Allnight Moonlight (2) – 35% confidence Place: Cajun Mitole (3) – 25% confidence Show: Benoit (7) – 15% confidence Alternative: Boss Of All Bosses (9) – 10% confidence

Race 7: Star Guitar Stakes

Post Time: 04:10 PM CST Distance: 1 Mile 70 Yards (Dirt) Conditions: 3yo, LA Bred. Purse $100,000.

Pace Analysis

Thebabeslayer (8) has speed and draws outside, which often forces a fast break to clear. Wherethehitsare (1) on the rail will likely protect position.

Key Contenders

Thebabeslayer (8) looks like the Standout for Steven Asmussen. Despite the wide draw, this horse has shown superior figures against state-breds. Asmussen’s main call rider (often waiting for big days) or Graham here indicates intent.

Wherethehitsare (1) for Al Stall Jr. is the main danger. The rail draw at the mile 70y distance is a huge advantage, allowing him to save ground into the first turn while the 8 works.

Secondary Choices

Creole Chrome (4) gets Jose Ortiz. That jockey booking alone demands respect. Joe Sharp trains; expect a tactical trip.

Longshots

Scar Ship (2) could pick up pieces if the pace melts down.

Betting Strategy

This looks like a duel between #8 and #1. The value might be on Wherethehitsare (1) due to the post advantage.

Selections

Win: Wherethehitsare (1) – 30% confidence Place: Thebabeslayer (8) – 30% confidence Show: Creole Chrome (4) – 20% confidence Alternative: Mor Force (6) – 10% confidence

Race 8: Black Gold Stakes

Post Time: 04:45 PM CST Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) Conditions: 3yo Open. Purse $100,000.

Pace Analysis

A fascinating race. Black Hornet (1) has speed potential but might want to cover up. Touch Of Fire (5) for Brad Cox will likely be forwardly placed.

Key Contenders

Black Hornet (1) for Brendan Walsh is the top selection. Drawing the rail in a turf route is ideal. He has shown the ability to handle tight turns and accelerates well. Walsh’s barn is firing on all cylinders.

Touch Of Fire (5) represents the Brad Cox/Marcelino Pedroza combination. He will likely take a lot of money and deserves it based on connections, but he needs to Prove he can handle the distance against this caliber.

Secondary Choices

Sunrise (7) is a very interesting horse. Formerly with Pletcher, now with Walsh (or similar trajectory), the barn change angle is Powerful. Ben Curtis riding suggests they are trying to wake him up. Blinkers off or on Changes could be in Play (check equipment). At 8-1 or better, he is a live wire.

Swift Blade (3) is the “other Cox” (or similar profile). Never ignore the second-stringer from a super barn.

Longshots

Mccready (4) for Hugh Robertson. Robertson is a legendary conditioner who often pops with turf longshots at Fair Grounds.

Betting Strategy

Black Hornet (1) to win. Sunrise (7) is the value Play for exotics.

Selections

Win: Black Hornet (1) – 28% confidence Place: Sunrise (7) – 20% confidence Show: Touch Of Fire (5) – 18% confidence Alternative: Mccready (4) – 12% confidence

Race 9: Charged Cotton Stakes

Post Time: 05:15 PM CST Distance: 1 Mile (Dirt) Conditions: 3yo Fillies, LA Bred. Purse $100,000.

Pace Analysis

Fade To Gold (1) has the rail and the speed. Mischievous Cindy (9) from the outside will have to send.

Key Contenders

Fade To Gold (1) is the horse to beat. Trained by Tom Amoss, she broke her maiden impressively recently and stretches out. The rail is perfect for her speed-oriented style. If she handles the distance, she wins.

Tied The Knot (2) is the main threat. She has been running against tougher company and should appreciate the state-bred restriction. Jareth Loveberry is a plus.

Secondary Choices

Thrill Seeker (3) for Joe Sharp. Another consistent runner who will sit the trip.

Longshots

Braken Poppa (4) for Asmussen. Always dangerous.

Betting Strategy

Fade To Gold looks like a potential single in late Pick 4s/5s.

Selections

Win: Fade To Gold (1) – 40% confidence Place: Tied The Knot (2) – 25% confidence Show: Thrill Seeker (3) – 15% confidence Alternative: Braken Poppa (4) – 10% confidence

Jockey Notes and Insights

Marcelino Pedroza Jr.: He is the “King of the Turf” at Fair Grounds. When he is on a turf horse, especially for barns like Walsh or Stall, upgrade the horse significantly. Watch his ride on Highly Wicked (R1) and Lowenstein (R4).
Ben Curtis: A very aggressive rider who excels at getting horses out of the gate and into position. He is live on Sunrise (R8).
Jose Ortiz: In town for the stakes? His presence on Creole Chrome (R7) is a massive tell that the connections mean business.
Corey Lanerie / James Graham: Veterans who excel at saving ground. Watch Graham on longshots like Benoit (R6); he often steals races on the turf by skimming the rail.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Brendan Walsh: The barn is heating up. His success with European imports (like Lowenstein in R4) and turf routers (Black Hornet in R8) is notable. Bet his horses with confidence today.
Brad Cox: As always, the dominant force. Even his “second stringers” in stakes races are often better than the field. Touch Of Fire (R8) and Dagmara (R4) are key players.
Tom Amoss: A master with young speed horses. Fade To Gold (R9) fits his profile perfectly—fast, well-schooled, and ready to fire off the layoff or maiden win.
Mike Maker: Watch for his claiming drop-downs and turf marathoners. Divineintervention (R2) fits his M.O. of spotting horses aggressively.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Best Bet of the Day: Race 9 – Fade To Gold (1). The pace advantage and rail draw for a Tom Amoss speed horse is a high-percentage angle.
Best Value Play: Race 8 – Sunrise (7). The “new barn” angle with Brendan Walsh is Powerful. If this horse floats to 8-1 or 10-1, he is a prime win bet candidate.
Pick 5 Ticket (Races 5-9):
- Race 5: 3, 4
- Race 6: 2, 3
- Race 7: 1, 8
- Race 8: 1, 5, 7
- Race 9: 1
- Cost for $0.50 base: $12.00. This ticket leans on Fade To Gold as a single to afford coverage in the competitive 8th race.

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Weather and Track Conditions

Track Bias Analysis

Race 1: Red Camelia Stakes

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Betting Strategy

Selections

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Betting Strategy

Selections

Race 3: Claiming $7,500

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Betting Strategy

Selections

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Betting Strategy

Selections

Race 5: Allowance

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Betting Strategy

Selections

Race 6: Edward J. Johnston Memorial Stakes

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Betting Strategy

Selections

Race 7: Star Guitar Stakes

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Betting Strategy

Selections

Race 8: Black Gold Stakes

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Betting Strategy

Selections

Race 9: Charged Cotton Stakes

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Betting Strategy

Selections

Jockey Notes and Insights

Trainer Notes and Insights

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

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