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The Saturday card at Fair Grounds features nine races with a mix of dirt and turf contests, highlighted by several competitive allowance and optional claiming events. The program begins at 12:45 PM CST. The card includes four turf races (Races 1, 4, 6, 8) and five dirt races. A key factor for today’s handicapping will be the rail setting on the turf course, which is positioned at 28 feet. This significant temporary rail setting often creates specific biases that astute handicappers must navigate. The dirt races, primarily sprints and routes, will test the local colony’s ability to handle the main track which has been playing fast in recent weeks.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for New Orleans today calls for fair skies with temperatures hovering around 50°F. Winds are expected from the West-Northwest at approximately 13 mph, which could be a factor in the stretch run, potentially providing a slight headwind for horses closing on the outside. The dirt track is listed as Fast, and the turf course is Firm. With the rail out 28 feet, the turf course effectively becomes narrower, often putting a premium on ground-saving trips and tactical speed.
Track Bias Analysis
On the main dirt track, 6-furlong sprints at Fair Grounds historically favor horses with early speed or those who can press the pace from the inside. The rail post and inside draws (1-3) typically perform well, while outside posts can be a disadvantage if the horse cannot clear the field early. In route races on dirt, the dynamic shifts slightly, allowing stalkers to have more of a say, but being involved early remains an asset.
For the turf course with the rail at 28 feet, the “inside speed” angle becomes potent. The tight turns and narrower lane make it difficult for deep closers to circle the field without losing significant ground. Horses that can save ground and pop through openings often outperform those forced to make wide sweeping moves. In turf sprints (5.5 furlongs), the bias towards the inside is even more pronounced; horses breaking from the outside in large fields often find themselves hung out to dry.
Race 1
Post Time
12:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
The opener is a 5-furlong turf sprint for Louisiana-bred maidens. In these large fields with the rail out, the break is critical. Restless Mind from the rail and C C Fanta C from post 4 show signs of early foot. Expect a scramble for position into the turn. The pace should be honest but not scorching, giving the advantage to those who can secure the pocket or the lead.
Key Contenders
Restless Mind (1) draws the coveted rail for trainer Shane Wilson and jockey Paco Lopez. This 3-year-old filly gets a massive jockey upgrade to Lopez, who is known for his aggressive gate riding. Wilson is a high-percentage trainer at this meet, and the combination of the inside draw and aggressive rider suggests she will be sent hard to hold her position. She has shown flashes of ability and fits well here.
Expect a Guitar (10) is a 4-year-old taking on younger rivals. While the outside post is a challenge with the rail at 28 feet, the maturity edge is significant. She carries more weight (125 lbs) but likely possesses more physical development than the 3-year-olds. If she can clear the traffic early, she is a major threat.
Secondary Choices
C C Fanta C (4) sends out Isaac Castillo for Brett Brinkman. This filly is likely to be forwardly placed and should get the jump on the wider runners. Her works suggest she is ready to fire, and Brinkman is capable with first-time starters or lightly raced types in state-bred company.
Longshots
Sweet Iron (9) is a 5-year-old mare who has faced issues, indicated by the vet scratch on January 14. However, if she draws in and runs, her age and experience could be a factor against a mostly green field. She is a wildcard who could hit the board at a price.
Betting Strategy
Focus on the inside runners who can save ground. A win bet on Restless Mind is the primary play, coupled with exactas using C C Fanta C and Expect a Guitar.
Selections
Win: Restless Mind (1) Place: Expect a Guitar (10) Show: C C Fanta C (4)
Race 2
Post Time
01:15 PM CST
Pace Analysis
This 6-furlong dirt sprint for maiden claimers features a small field of six. Sultan’s Pride and Deal Me Trips look to be the primary speed. With a short run to the turn not being an issue here, the pace should be moderate, likely turning into a match race from the quarter pole home.
Key Contenders
Deal Me Trips (4) looks like the horse to beat. Paco Lopez takes the mount for trainer Alexis Claire. This horse drops into a realistic spot and has the tactical speed to sit just off the lead or set it. The aggressive riding style of Lopez suits this dirt sprint perfectly.
Sultan’s Pride (1) draws the rail for trainer Matthew Lorefice. Isaac Castillo is a strong rider for this circuit. The rail draw is advantageous in dirt sprints here, and if he breaks well, he could wire this field.
Secondary Choices
Make Me a Deal (3) is the logical alternative if the top two duel each other into submission. Sofia Vives is an apprentice who provides a weight break (though not specified in the conditions, her claim allows for good value).
Longshots
Gato Blue (5) adds blinkers (denoted by ‘b’ in some past performances, though not explicitly here) or makes an equipment change that could wake him up. In a small field, any improvement puts him in the mix.
Betting Strategy
This looks like a two-horse race. An exacta box of Sultan’s Pride and Deal Me Trips is the safest route.
Selections
Win: Deal Me Trips (4) Place: Sultan’s Pride (1) Show: Make Me a Deal (3)
Race 3
Post Time
01:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
A 6-furlong dirt claiming event. Yockey’s Drivethru and Star Rock Star have shown speed in the past. Blame Me Seriously can also be close. The pace should be contested, potentially setting up for a stalker.
Key Contenders
Blame Me Seriously (1) is another Shane Wilson/Paco Lopez collaboration. Drawing the rail in a dirt sprint is a high-percentage angle at Fair Grounds. This 5-year-old mare has the back class to handle this field and should get a dream trip saving ground.
Yockey’s Drivethru (4) is a veteran 6-year-old who knows where the finish line is. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. rides for Sam David Jr. This horse is consistent and fits these conditions well.
Secondary Choices
Star Rock Star (2) should be involved early. If the rail horse falters, this one will be in the catbird seat.
Longshots
Aller Vite (7) breaks from the outside but gets a weight break with Hunter Rea. If the pace collapses, he could pick up the pieces.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on Blame Me Seriously.
Selections
Win: Blame Me Seriously (1) Place: Yockey’s Drivethru (4) Show: Star Rock Star (2)
Race 4
Post Time
02:15 PM CST
Pace Analysis
This 1 1/16-mile turf race is a Starter Allowance. Allnight Moonlight has speed, as does Calibrate. The pace should be honest. With the rail at 28 feet, the first turn can be treacherous for outside horses; those with tactical speed inside will have a huge edge.
Key Contenders
Risk Manager (6) represents the powerful Mike Maker barn. Jareth Loveberry rides. Maker is deadly in these turf claiming/starter allowance spots. This 8-year-old veteran has seen it all and fits perfectly in this condition. He likely sits mid-pack and makes one run.
Great Escape (9) draws outside but has Isaac Castillo and Robertino Diodoro. This is a dangerous team. If he can overcome the post, his class is undeniable. However, the post is a major concern with the temporary rail.
Secondary Choices
Allnight Moonlight (1) is the speed of the speed from the rail. If he gets loose on a slow pace, he could steal it.
Longshots
Liar’s Poker (5) with James Graham is an interesting price play. Graham is an excellent turf rider who knows how to save ground.
Betting Strategy
Risk Manager is the most likely winner based on class and connections. Box him with Allnight Moonlight.
Selections
Win: Risk Manager (6) Place: Allnight Moonlight (1) Show: Great Escape (9)
Race 5
Post Time
02:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
A dirt route for fillies and mares. Conch Fried Rice and Paris Lily should be forward. The small field of five ensures a tactical affair where the jockey’s decision-making will be paramount.
Key Contenders
Paris Lily (2) comes from the Brendan Walsh barn with Ben Curtis riding. Walsh excels with this type of runner. She has shown the ability to route and should sit a perfect stalking trip just behind the leaders.
Conch Fried Rice (1) is the main speed threat from the rail. Sofia Vives rides for Michael Stidham. If she is allowed to set slow fractions, she could be hard to catch.
Secondary Choices
Amarth (3) with Paco Lopez and Eddie Kenneally is a threat. Lopez will likely be aggressive, ensuring Conch Fried Rice doesn’t get an easy lead.
Betting Strategy
Exacta box 1-2. The race likely comes down to the stretch duel between these two.
Selections
Win: Paris Lily (2) Place: Conch Fried Rice (1) Show: Amarth (3)
Race 6
Post Time
03:15 PM CST
Pace Analysis
A 1-mile turf allowance for LA-breds. Le Monstre Rapide and Laser Clad have speed. Boss of All Bosses should be stalking. The rail at 28 feet favors the inside runners significantly at this distance due to the short run to the first turn (if run at 1 mile).
Key Contenders
Boss of All Bosses (3) is another Mike Maker entry with Ben Curtis. This 4-year-old is on the improve and fits these state-bred allowance conditions perfectly. He should get the jump on the deep closers.
Behemah Star (4) is an 8-year-old veteran for Shane Wilson. He knows this course well and always puts in an honest effort.
Secondary Choices
Le Monstre Rapide (1) has the rail and Paco Lopez. This is a “send” signal. He will try to take them gate to wire.
Longshots
Wicked Secret (6) could pick up the pieces if the pace gets hot.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on Boss of All Bosses. Trifecta key 3 over 1,4.
Selections
Win: Boss of All Bosses (3) Place: Le Monstre Rapide (1) Show: Behemah Star (4)
Race 7
Post Time
03:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Dirt route allowance. Dawn After Dawn and Anonima will likely vie for the front. The pace should be moderate.
Key Contenders
Anonima (2) hails from the Kenny McPeek barn with Colby Hernandez. She has been facing tough company and should find this spot more to her liking.
Sea To Sky (5) is an Irish-bred trained by Cherie DeVaux. While bred for turf, DeVaux is excellent at placing horses, and this surface switch or continued dirt campaign suggests confidence.
Secondary Choices
Dawn After Dawn (1) has the rail and Paco Lopez. Stidham trains. Expect a very aggressive ride.
Betting Strategy
Anonima looks like the class of the field.
Selections
Win: Anonima (2) Place: Dawn After Dawn (1) Show: Sea To Sky (5)
Race 8
Post Time
04:15 PM CST
Pace Analysis
5.5-furlong turf sprint. This will be fast. September Magic, Tempting Eve, and Betty’s Dance all have speed. The rail at 28 feet makes post 1 (September Magic) a massive advantage.
Key Contenders
Tempting Eve (2) represents the Chris Hartman barn, which wins at a high clip in turf sprints. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. rides. She should sit just off the rail horse and pounce.
September Magic (1) has the best draw. Ben Curtis rides for Tom Amoss. Amoss is brilliant with sprinters. If she breaks clean, she is the one to catch.
Secondary Choices
Betty’s Dance (4) is a Joe Sharp trainee with Paco Lopez. Sharp is a turf sprint specialist. This horse is a must-use in exotics.
Longshots
Miss Lonelle (5) is a Wayne Catalano trainee who could close into a hot pace.
Betting Strategy
This is a very competitive race. Box the inside three (1, 2, 4) in exactas.
Selections
Win: Tempting Eve (2) Place: September Magic (1) Show: Betty’s Dance (4)
Race 9
Post Time
04:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a 6-furlong dirt sprint. Hittin My Stride and Slam Diego are the class. Pace should be swift.
Key Contenders
Hittin My Stride (1) draws the rail with Paco Lopez. This 5-year-old mare should be sent hard and could wire the field.
Slam Diego (5) is a 7-year-old veteran for Diodoro. He drops in class/maintains level and has the back numbers to crush this field if ready.
Secondary Choices
Margoinabubblebath (4) is a consistent runner who usually hits the board.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on Hittin My Stride.
Selections
Win: Hittin My Stride (1) Place: Slam Diego (5) Show: Margoinabubblebath (4)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Paco Lopez is the rider to watch today. He has mount after mount with live chances, particularly on horses drawing the rail (Races 1, 3, 6, 7, 9). His aggressive style is perfectly suited for the Fair Grounds dirt sprints and the turf course with the rail out, where maintaining position is everything. Expect him to send his mounts hard from the gate.
Ben Curtis and Jareth Loveberry are also in excellent spots. Curtis has live mounts for Walsh and Maker, while Loveberry is aboard key turf contenders.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Shane Wilson has entered several live horses today (Restless Mind, Blame Me Seriously, Behemah Star). As a leading trainer on this circuit, his horses are generally fit and spotted well. When he teams up with aggressive riders like Lopez, it is a signal of intent.
Mike Maker sends out a few dangerous turf runners (Risk Manager, Boss of All Bosses). Maker is the premier trainer for claiming/allowance turf horses in the region. His horses often outperform their odds in these spots.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best bet of the day appears to be Blame Me Seriously in Race 3. The combination of the rail draw, dirt sprint stats, and the Wilson/Lopez connection is formidable.
For value, look to Risk Manager in Race 4. His age may scare some off, but his class on the turf is superior to this field, and Maker excels with these types.
In the Pick 5 (covering races 1-5 or 5-9), lean heavily on the inside horses in the turf sprints (Race 1 and 8) and singling the dirt sprinters with inside draws in Races 2 and 3. The rail at 28 feet on the turf is the defining bias of the day; ignore it at your peril. Favor horses with posts 1-4 in these grass events.
