Fairmount Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for October 28, 2025

Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. The report is prepared by one of our Pick Pony analysts, so selections may differ from , which are based on the consensus of all analysts.

Fairmount Park presents an 11-race card on Tuesday, October 28, 2025, featuring a mix of maiden claiming events, standard claiming races, and allowance optional claiming contests that should provide solid betting opportunities for handicappers.​

Track Conditions and Weather

The track is currently listed as fast with cloudy conditions and a temperature of 54°F. Humidity stands at 86% with calm winds, creating ideal racing conditions for the final day of Fairmount Park’s 2025 season. The one-mile dirt oval features a clay and sand surface that provides consistent footing, with chutes available for six furlong and 1¼ mile races.​

Race-by-Race Analysis

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming $6,250 (6 Furlongs, 1:00 PM)

Key contenders include Cajun Cruiser with Santos Ademar aboard for trainer James Watkins. The Watkins-Santos combination has been productive recently, and Cajun Cruiser showed effort in his last start on September 27th despite finishing seventh. Odin the Accident represents value with Felix Julio, who is riding at a 30% clip during this meet.​

Warrior of Gold offers another Watkins entry with Carlos Herrera, providing trainer flexibility. Young Mischief drops from allowance company and could benefit from the class relief with Reynier Arrieta riding.

Pace analysis suggests moderate early fractions with Floating Smokey and Enchanted Moment likely to press early. The six furlong distance should favor horses with tactical speed who can position for a late rally.​

Race 2 – Claiming $5,000 (6 Furlongs, 1:25 PM)

El Peligro represents another Watkins runner with Alexander Bendezu, continuing the hot trainer’s presence throughout the card. Fast Cross Traffic brings experience with Alex Gonzalez for Lori Plasters, who maintains solid statistics at Fairmount Park.​

Spoonman with Santos Ademar provides the hot jockey angle, while City of Clouds offers tactical speed with Javier Diego. The claiming level suggests these horses are closely matched in ability.

Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming $20,000 (6 Furlongs, 1:50 PM)

Race 3 at Fairmount Park presents a competitive six-horse Illinois-bred allowance optional claiming event at six furlongs with a $28,000 purse, featuring several horses with recent form and legitimate winning chances.​

Key Contenders

Bikini Martini (3 F, 117 lbs, Arrieta/Essenpreis)

This three-year-old Yorkton filly enters as the morning line favorite based on recent strong performances. She captured a $27,000 allowance race at Fairmount Park on September 20th under Alex Gonzalez, demonstrating her ability at this class level. Her recent form shows 462312, indicating consistency with multiple placings. The switch to Reynier Arrieta provides a strong jockey upgrade, and trainer Eddie Essenpreis maintains excellent statistics with Illinois-bred horses. The filly’s tactical speed should allow her to secure a favorable stalking position behind the early pace.​

Weslan (5 G, 124 lbs, Felix/Wainwright)

This five-year-old Mor Spirit gelding brings experience and proven form at the allowance level. While his early career statistics from Canada show limited success with 11 starts and no wins, his recent move to Illinois and trainer John Wainwright has produced improved results. Felix provides a strong jockey angle with his current 30% win rate at the meet. Recent form shows he finished third behind Good Apple and second to Grayhop in competitive allowance company, suggesting he belongs at this level.​

Hand Over My Heart (4 G, 124 lbs, Santos/Essenpreis)

This four-year-old Heart to Heart gelding represents the powerful Essenpreis stable with Santos Ademar aboard. He captured a six furlong race at Fairmount Park on July 1st as the 15/8 favorite, proving his ability at this distance and class. Recent efforts show he finished sixth in a competitive field on September 19th but has demonstrated the class to compete at this level. The Santos-Essenpreis combination has been highly productive throughout the meet.​

Secondary Choices

Grayhop (5 G, 126 lbs, Gonzalez/Plasters)

This experienced five-year-old brings solid recent form with a victory at allowance level on September 30th. His form line of 951232 indicates recent consistency, and he defeated several of today’s opponents in that September 30th score. Trainer Lori Plasters has been among the leading conditioners at the meet with a 4-for-15 record in the last 21 days. The partnership with Alex Gonzalez provides proven chemistry, making this a logical contender despite carrying top weight.​

Lonesome Dream (8 G, 124 lbs, Giles/Higgins)

This veteran eight-year-old Golden Sphinx gelding brings extensive experience with 17 career starts. While his overall record shows just one victory, he has demonstrated the ability to hit the board consistently with three seconds and six thirds. His lone career victory came at Hawthorne on December 6, 2020. Recent form indicates he’s been competitive in allowance company, finishing sixth behind Good Apple in his last start on October 11th.​

Longshot Consideration

Adios Kid (3 G, 120 lbs, Tavares/Delong)

This three-year-old represents legitimate value as a lightly raced prospect who captured an allowance race at Fairmount Park on June 8th. That victory came at odds of $13.20 in a $25,000 race, defeating Zee Fire and demonstrating his potential. The weight break to 120 pounds provides a significant advantage, and jockey Javier Tavares brings tactical awareness to the assignment.​

Pace Analysis

The six furlong distance should produce moderate early fractions with Bikini Martini and Hand Over My Heart likely to press the early tempo. Grayhop’s tactical speed could see him involved early, while Weslan and Lonesome Dream will likely settle mid-pack for late rallies. Adios Kid’s running style suggests he may benefit from a contested pace scenario where his closing kick becomes effective.​

Key Angles and Wagering Strategy

The Illinois-bred restriction creates a unique betting environment where local knowledge and trainer familiarity with the circuit becomes crucial. Eddie Essenpreis entries represent the strongest angle with both Bikini Martini and Hand Over My Heart showing recent competitive form. The trainer’s 18 wins from 116 starts demonstrates consistency at this level.​

Santos Ademar continues his exceptional meet and provides the strongest jockey angle aboard Hand Over My Heart. The combination of proven class, distance experience, and hot jockey creates compelling value given morning line odds.​

The pace dynamics favor horses with tactical speed who can position for late moves. Weslan’s experience at route distances suggests he may appreciate the added distance if early fractions become contested.​

Race Prediction

Win Selection: Bikini Martini offers the most consistent recent form and represents the leading trainer’s top entry

Value Play: Hand Over My Heart provides excellent odds with the Santos-Essenpreis combination in peak form

Exotic Inclusion: Adios Kid merits consideration in trifecta and superfecta combinations as a lightly raced improver

Suggested Wagering: Exacta box Bikini Martini/Hand Over My Heart, with Adios Kid included in trifecta combinations for value.

Race 4 – Fillies and Mares Claiming $6,250 (1 Mile, 2:15 PM)

The route distance should benefit horses with tactical speed and stamina. Wildwood Encore with Felix gives the hot jockey another opportunity, while Last Gasp offers value with Bendezu for Scott Becker.

I Be Gone represents Dennis Higgins with Herrera, bringing proven form at the distance. Wicked Sky with Giles could benefit from the added distance if pace develops favorably.

Race 5 – Illinois-Bred Allowance Optional Claiming $20,000 (6 Furlongs, 2:40 PM)

Faith Hope N Love with Diego represents Robert Pompell in this restricted event. Halo Honey gives Essenpreis another chance with Alvin Ortiz riding. Boyce’s Bandita with Bendezu brings experience for Billy McEwen.

The Illinois-bred restriction limits the field but maintains competitive balance. Irish Spark with Arrieta for Essenpreis provides trainer depth.

Race 6 – Starter Optional Claiming $15,000 (1 1/16 Miles, 3:05 PM)

The route distance over 1 1/16 miles should favor proven route horses. American Cause with Santos continues the hot jockey’s presence, while Eternally Grateful offers value with Bendezu.

Lemon Drop Shot with Tavares brings tactical speed, and City of God provides distance capability with Israel Hernandez. Two Hearted represents the lone filly with Felix riding.

Race 7 – Fillies and Mares Starter Optional Claiming $15,000 (6 Furlongs, 3:30 PM)

Fast N Happy with Arrieta represents Fernando Alonso in this competitive sprint. Lil Bit Tipsey brings experience at age 10 with Diego for McEwen. Summer of Mischief provides another Becker angle with Bendezu.

The sprint distance should produce contested early pace with several speed horses. She’s Inthearmynow offers value with Hernandez for Hugo Rodriguez.

Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming $50,000 (6 Furlongs, 3:55 PM)

Race 8 at Fairmount Park presents the highest class event of the day, a $25,000 allowance optional claiming sprint at six furlongs with a $50,000 claiming option, featuring seven proven performers in this competitive grade.​

Key Contenders

Fast Jack (6 G, 126 lbs, Santos/Becker) – 2/1 Morning Line Favorite

This six-year-old Munnings gelding enters as the rightful favorite based on class, connections, and recent form. Trainer Scott Becker has been among the leading conditioners at Fairmount Park throughout the meet, and his partnership with Santos Ademar provides the strongest jockey-trainer combination on the card. Fast Jack’s recent allowance company suggests he belongs at this level, and the six furlong distance fits his tactical speed profile. Santos Ademar enters this race riding at peak form with multiple recent victories, making this the most logical choice in a competitive field.​

W W Hotshot (7 G, 126 lbs, Bendezu/Becker) – 3/1 Second Choice

This seven-year-old Ghaaleb gelding represents exceptional recent form with multiple victories in 2024. His record shows wins on October 22nd and October 6th, 2024, both at six furlongs, demonstrating his current effectiveness at today’s distance. The Becker stable entry with Alexander Bendezu provides proven chemistry, as this combination scored those recent victories. W W Hotshot’s career statistics show 5 wins from 9 starts in 2021, indicating significant ability when in peak form. His recent consistency makes him a legitimate threat to upset the favorite.​

King Cab (6 G, 124 lbs, Felix/Irion) – 4/1 Third Choice

This six-year-old represents Heather Irion’s stable with excellent credentials, including stakes-winning status and career earnings of $37,775. His partnership with Julio Felix provides a strong jockey angle, as Felix maintains a 30% win rate during this meet. Trainer Irion operates at a solid 14.3% win rate from 453 starts with a strong 41.3% in-the-money percentage. King Cab’s class background suggests he can compete effectively at this allowance level, and the two-pound weight concession provides a tactical advantage.​

Secondary Choices

Heart N Soul (5 G, 126 lbs, Arrieta/Irion) – 10/1

This five-year-old Goldencents gelding brings solid recent form for the powerful Irion stable. His most impressive recent effort came with a victory at Horseshoe Indianapolis on July 11, 2024, in allowance company. The Arrieta-Irion combination has been productive, with Heart N Soul earning $7,704 per start and achieving a 97 best speed figure. Recent form shows a third-place finish at Fairmount Park on July 8th, indicating competitive ability at this venue.​

Bureau (6 H, 124 lbs, Gonzalez/Wilborn) – 12/1

This six-year-old brings modest recent form with a fourth-place finish in claiming company on September 30th and a second-place effort on June 14th. While his recent performances suggest he may be outclassed at this allowance level, the two-pound weight break and partnership with Alex Gonzalez provide some tactical advantages. His form figures of 4343-42 indicate consistency without significant recent success.​

Longshot Considerations

Clyde’s Green Go (8 R, 124 lbs, Diego/Pompell) – 10/1

This eight-year-old veteran brings significant experience with seven career victories. His most notable recent success came at Hawthorne on April 22, 2024, capturing a $35,000 race, demonstrating his capability at higher levels. Recent form shows competitive efforts in allowance company, including a victory on July 1st, 2025, at Fairmount Park. His partnership with Javier Diego provides tactical awareness from an experienced rider.​

Bow Draw (7 M, 123 lbs, Simpson/Cook) – 6/1

This seven-year-old mare brings the advantage of a five-pound weight concession and represents Wesley Cook’s stable with Javour Simpson aboard. While detailed recent form is limited, the significant weight advantage in a competitive field merits consideration for exotic wagering combinations.

Pace Analysis

The six furlong sprint distance should produce tactical early fractions with Fast Jack and W W Hotshot likely to engage early. King Cab’s tactical speed suggests he’ll position favorably behind the leaders, while Heart N Soul has demonstrated the ability to close from off the pace. The allowance class typically produces honest pace scenarios where positioning becomes crucial for success.​

Key Angles and Wagering Strategy

Scott Becker’s dual entry represents the strongest trainer angle, with both Fast Jack and W W Hotshot showing recent competitive form at this level. The Santos Ademar factor provides significant value given his exceptional current form and proven partnership with the Becker stable.​

Heather Irion’s dual representation with King Cab and Heart N Soul offers exotic wagering opportunities, particularly given the trainer’s solid 14.3% win rate and strong recent performances from both entries.​

The claiming option at $50,000 creates additional dynamics, as connections must weigh the value of their horses against potential claims at this elevated price level.

Race Prediction

Win Selection: Fast Jack represents the logical choice combining class, connections, and current form

Value Play: W W Hotshot offers excellent odds at 3/1 given his recent victory pattern and proven Becker-Bendezu combination

Exotic Angles: King Cab merits inclusion in trifecta combinations as the Felix angle with class relief

Suggested Wagering: Win bet on Fast Jack with exacta combinations including W W Hotshot and King Cab. Consider trifecta wheels using Fast Jack on top with W W Hotshot and King Cab in second and third positions.​

Race 9 – Claiming $12,500 (6 Furlongs, 4:20 PM)

On the Money Red with Diego leads this claiming sprint, while Megan’s Honor provides Becker representation with Bendezu. Junior Bug offers weight relief with Arrieta riding.

Purple Octopus with Ortiz represents Harry Lynch, and Skylane brings tactical speed with Tavares. The claiming level creates competitive balance.

Race 10 – Claiming $5,000 (1 Mile 70 Yards, 4:45 PM)

The route distance should favor stamina over speed. Severance with Diego opens the card, while Smile Like Kyle with Ortiz represents Pompell. Highly Perfect brings proven form with Harold Ortega.

Pontus with Santos provides another jockey angle for Plasters, while Mystic Power offers value with Arrieta.

Race 11 – Claiming $4,000-$6,500 (1 3/16 Miles, 5:10 PM)

The finale features the longest distance of the day. Major Contender with Javour Simpson opens for Anthony Blea, while Holcombe with Diego represents the same trainer. Solomon Vandy with Santos provides the top jockey angle.

Irish Declaration brings experience with Herrera for Ralph Martinez, and Try Try Again offers tactical speed with Tavares.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Santos Ademar enters the card as the hottest jockey at Fairmount Park, with recent victories and strong partnerships with leading trainers. His combination with James Watkins has been particularly effective, making their runners automatic contenders.​

Julio Felix continues his strong meet with a 30% win rate from 111 starts. His versatility and experience at claiming levels provide consistent opportunities throughout the card.​

Alexander Bendezu represents solid value with multiple mounts for Scott Becker, who leads the trainer standings. The Becker-Bendezu combination has shown recent success in claiming company.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

James Watkins leads all trainers with 30 wins from 112 starts, providing a 26.8% win rate and strong return on investment. His multiple entries throughout the card make him a key angle for handicappers.​

Eddie Essenpreis continues his productive meet with 18 wins from 116 starts. His Illinois-bred specialists provide value in restricted events, particularly when paired with proven jockeys.​

Scott Becker maintains consistency with proven claiming horses and solid partnerships with veteran riders. His multiple entries provide exotic wagering opportunities.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The maiden claiming opener presents value with class droppers and first-time starters worth exotic consideration. Focus on trainer James Watkins throughout the card, as his 26.8% win rate provides consistent opportunities.​

Late Pick 4 covering races 8-11 should target the Santos Ademar rides in the higher-class events. The jockey’s hot streak and quality mounts provide solid foundation plays.

Daily Double opportunities exist with the Watkins entries in races 1 and 2, providing potential value if both runners perform to expectations. Consider boxing Santos Ademar mounts in exacta combinations throughout the card, as his current form suggests multiple winning chances on this final day program.

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback