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Fonner Park in Grand Island, Nebraska hosts its second Saturday card of the 2026 live meet today with a loaded 10-race program. The centerpiece of the afternoon is the 59th running of the Grasmick Stakes (Race 9), a $20,000-added four-furlong dash for three-year-olds and upward that drew 31 nominations and an eight-horse field. The card also features two certified Nebraska-bred allowance races (Races 3 and 8) with purses of $17,000 and $18,200 respectively, along with three open allowance events, three claiming races, and a maiden special weight nightcap.
First post is 1:30 PM CST. The card spans from low-level $2,500 claiming sprints to the featured Grasmick Stakes, offering both value and quality plays throughout the afternoon. The scratch watch lists Guitar Doctor (Race 1) and Doris Avenue (Race 2) as possible veterinary scratches, while Secreto Uno (Race 10) faces a possible stewards’ scratch. Bettors should monitor scratch announcements before finalizing wagers.
Today’s conditions create a broad range of claiming, allowance, and stakes levels, ensuring a diverse betting menu. The four-furlong sprint races (Races 1, 3, 8, and 9) will be run around one turn on Fonner’s tight five-furlong oval, while the six-furlong events (Races 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 10) navigate two turns. The compact nature of Fonner Park amplifies every handicapping factor, from post position to running style, making today’s card a true test of horseplaying skill.
Weather and Track Conditions
Current conditions at 6:53 AM CST showed a temperature of 16 degrees Fahrenheit with mostly cloudy skies and a light breeze at 4.6 mph out of the west-northwest. By post time, the high is forecast to reach approximately 38 degrees Fahrenheit, with a feels-like temperature around 29 degrees due to wind of 10 mph. Skies will be mostly cloudy with only a 1% chance of precipitation and no rain or snow expected.
The cold morning temperatures mean the racing surface will begin the afternoon firm and potentially hard-packed, as any overnight moisture would have frozen. As the day progresses into the upper 30s, slight surface softening is possible, but conditions should remain fast throughout the card. Humidity is forecast at 51%, which is relatively low and should not meaningfully affect the track. Wind at 10 mph from the north is manageable and should not significantly impact the stretch run or the backstretch, though horses running into the wind along the backside may expend marginally more energy.
Overall, expect a fast dirt surface all afternoon. Speed horses and front-runners should not encounter any weather-related obstacles. The cold, dry conditions favor a consistent racing surface from first race to last.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Fonner Park is a five-furlong oval with tight turns and short straightaways, which creates one of the most pronounced track biases in American racing. Historically, this track strongly favors speed. Front-runners who can secure the lead early and establish position into the first turn enjoy a significant structural advantage.
In the four-furlong races, this speed bias is amplified dramatically. With only 880 yards of racing and a single turn to navigate, horses that break sharply and grab the rail frequently wire the field. Inside post positions (posts one through three) win at disproportionately high rates in these sprints, as they allow a horse to save ground around the turn without burning excess energy to establish position. Horses drawn outside in four-furlong races must either use extra fuel to cross over quickly or risk losing lengths going wide through the turn, which is often an insurmountable disadvantage on this bullring layout.
In six-furlong races, the bias shifts slightly. While speed still holds a general advantage, the two-turn configuration allows stalking types to settle into position through the first turn and make a sustained move entering the second turn. Inside posts remain advantageous but not as overwhelmingly so as in four-furlong races. Posts four through six in larger fields can actually benefit from a cleaner break without inside traffic, provided the horse has enough early tactical speed to secure a forward position through the clubhouse turn.
Bettors should weight speed and post position heavily in four-furlong races (Races 1, 3, 8, and 9), and look for horses with tactical speed and clean trips in six-furlong races. On a dry, fast track like today, expect the rail to be the golden path, especially in the featured Grasmick Stakes.
Race 1 — Claiming, 4 Furlongs, Purse $6,900
Post Time: 1:30 PM CST
This is a $2,500 claiming sprint for horses that have not won a race in 2026. A field of six older geldings will contest the opener, a one-turn dash that should be run in roughly 46 seconds on a fast track.
Pace Analysis
Expect James’s Moonshine (1) and State School Smart (5) to vie for early position, with Guitar Doctor (3) also likely to show speed if he runs. Webcam (6) has enough early pace to sit a forward stalking trip. The pace scenario should be moderate to honest, as no single horse figures to have an uncontested lead. Inside speed should control this race.
Key Contenders
James’s Moonshine (1) comes in as the horse to beat on recent form. He won his last start by nearly a length over five furlongs at Arapahoe Park, albeit three-and-a-half months ago. He now moves to the Kyle Schindler barn and draws the rail, which is the coveted post position in four-furlong dashes at Fonner Park. Jose Medina gets the ride, and Medina is one of the most experienced jockeys at navigating this track. The inside draw and proven speed make this one the likely pacesetter and the horse everyone must run down.
State School Smart (5) returns from a three-and-a-half month layoff as a consistent performer who is ideally suited to this level. His last outing was a sixth over five-and-a-half furlongs at Arapahoe Park, but the drop to four furlongs on a track that favors speed should help. Nathan Haar, who rides consistently well at Fonner, takes the mount. The outside post is a concern in a four-furlong race, but the smaller six-horse field mitigates some of that disadvantage.
Secondary Choices
Guitar Doctor (3) is a scratching concern (listed on scratch watch for veterinary reasons), but if he runs, he brings solid credentials. He hit the frame when last resuming from a layoff at Delta Downs and now ships to the Isai V. Gonzalez barn with Alex Birzer up. The post-three draw is favorable. Condition permitting, he rates a serious look.
Webcam (6) is a new addition to the Trevor Rushton barn and placed at Arapahoe Park before going on a break. Bryan McNeil rides. The outside draw is a negative, but in a small field, he can save ground if he breaks alertly. He rates as a contender for the minor awards.
Longshots
Stoops Sine Die (2) and Campton (4) round out the field. Neither horse profiles as a winner here based on current form, though Campton for trainer Gonzalez could pick up a minor share if the pace collapses.
Betting Strategy
The rail draw and recent form give James’s Moonshine (1) a strong edge. A win bet on the 1 is the primary play. For exactas, key James’s Moonshine (1) on top over State School Smart (5) and Guitar Doctor (3) if the latter runs. If Guitar Doctor scratches, a small exacta box of the 1 and 5 is sufficient.
Selections
Win: James’s Moonshine (1)
Place: State School Smart (5)
Show: Guitar Doctor (3)
Race 2 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Purse $8,100
Post Time: 1:59 PM CST
A six-furlong $5,000 claiming event for non-winners of three (or NE-bred non-winners of four). Six runners are entered, though Doris Avenue (6) is on scratch watch. This is a two-turn race that should produce a moderate pace scenario.
Pace Analysis
Storm Strategy (1) and Flame Rock Fire (4) figure to contest the early pace, with To Too Twentytwo (5) sitting just behind in a stalking position. Papa’s Nico Boy (3) could also show some early speed from the three post. The pace should be honest enough that a closer with any kick could get involved late.
Key Contenders
To Too Twentytwo (5) improved markedly in his last start, finishing third over six furlongs at Sam Houston Park, beaten only six lengths. He profiles as a stalker who should benefit from tracking the early speed of Storm Strategy and Flame Rock Fire. Jose Medina takes the mount, and handicappers note that Medina knows this track as well as any jockey in the colony. If the pace is honest up front, To Too Twentytwo has the running style to capitalize in the stretch.
Flame Rock Fire (4) finished fourth over five furlongs at Delta Downs five-and-a-half weeks ago, beaten ten lengths. He steps up in distance to six furlongs today, which could be a positive if he can rate slightly off the pace. David Cardoso rides for trainer Mark Hibdon, a potent combination. He should be poised just off the lead and has winning claims on his best figures.
Secondary Choices
Storm Strategy (1) has the rail draw and should show early speed, though his last effort at Delta Downs was a poor 10th beaten 17 lengths. The class drop to $5,000 claiming and the move to Fonner could spark improvement. Belen Quinonez rides for the Gonzalez barn.
Prints Money (2) has been away since a poor ninth at Horseshoe Indianapolis in October, but he returns for the Kelli Martinez barn with Alex Birzer aboard. If he has trained well over the break, he could be live at a price.
Longshots
Papa’s Nico Boy (3) has been inconsistent but is capable of a strong effort on his best day. Travis Cunningham takes the mount for Marvin Johnson. If he can work out a forward trip from the three hole, he could be a sneaky play in exactas and trifectas.
Betting Strategy
To Too Twentytwo (5) is the top choice in a race that could set up for a mid-pack stalker. A win bet on the 5 supplemented with an exacta keying 5 on top of 4 and 1 is the preferred play. For trifecta coverage, use 5 over 4, 1, 2 over 4, 1, 2, 3.
Selections
Win: To Too Twentytwo (5)
Place: Flame Rock Fire (4)
Show: Storm Strategy (1)
Race 3 — Allowance (NE Bred), 4 Furlongs, Purse $17,000
Post Time: 2:28 PM CST
A certified Nebraska-bred allowance event for non-winners of three, run at four furlongs with winners preferred. Seven runners are entered for a solid $17,000 purse, making this one of the more competitive races of the early card.
Pace Analysis
Expect It’s Notmyproblem (1) to use the rail to establish early position. Turn N Burn Boss (6) and Inspiring Indeed (5) both have tactical speed and could press or stalk. This race has the potential for a contested pace if multiple horses try to grab the lead early, which could benefit a closer, though closers rarely prevail in four-furlong dashes at Fonner.
Key Contenders
Inspiring Indeed (5) returns from a seven-month layoff and was a genuine performer in his last campaign, most recently finishing third over six furlongs at Horsemen’s Park. Handicappers have tabbed Inspiring Indeed as the consensus selection at 5-2 morning line odds. Victor Bailon rides for Kyle Schindler. The cutback from six furlongs to four furlongs could be a significant positive, as this horse has the tactical speed to sit close to the pace and pounce. The five post is workable in a seven-horse field at four furlongs.
It’s Notmyproblem (1) is a promising three-year-old who placed over five furlongs at Delta Downs in his only start of the last campaign. He has never been out of the placings when resuming from a layoff (two attempts), making him a formidable fresh runner. Jose Medina rides from the rail for Mark Hibdon, and the combination of inside draw, proven freshness, and a top trainer makes this one extremely dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Turn N Burn Boss (6) goes well when fresh, including a win at this track to launch his last campaign over four furlongs. He returns from a nine-month break under Nathan Haar for Grady Thompson. If he reproduces his previous first-up form, he is a legitimate threat to wire the field.
Goin Owen (7) is a deeper value play. His last race was a distant fifth over a mile at Horsemen’s Park, but the cutback to four furlongs on a track that favors speed could wake him up. Travis Cunningham rides for David Anderson.
Longshots
Game’s Kartel (2) and Mister Lester (4) are longer shots who would need career-best efforts to factor here. One Lucky Boy (3) for Jason Wise with Bryan McNeil up could pick up a minor share if the pace is particularly taxing.
Betting Strategy
Inspiring Indeed (5) and It’s Notmyproblem (1) figure to dominate the exacta. A win bet on Inspiring Indeed (5) with an exacta box of 5, 1, and 6 provides solid coverage. The trifecta play uses 5 and 1 on top over 1, 5, 6 over 6, 7, 3 for deeper value.
Selections
Win: Inspiring Indeed (5)
Place: It’s Notmyproblem (1)
Show: Turn N Burn Boss (6)
Race 4 — Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Purse $13,200
Post Time: 2:57 PM CST
An open allowance event at six furlongs for non-winners of three (or NE-bred non-winners of four), with winners preferred. Seven runners enter for a $13,200 purse.
Pace Analysis
Forthelonghaul (6) and Hello Sunshine (4) could both show early speed. Anchor Line (5) also has enough tactical pace to sit forwardly. Wedding Gift (7) will likely stalk from mid-pack. The pace should be moderate, favoring horses with forward position entering the far turn.
Key Contenders
Forthelonghaul (6) has been tabbed as the handicapping consensus at 8-1 morning line odds, suggesting significant value if he runs to his potential. He resumes after a ten-week break, and his prior prep began with a debut win over six furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs, showing he can handle the distance. Xavier Pickner rides for Stetson Rushton. The six post is acceptable at six furlongs. If he can reproduce anything close to his debut form, he is the one to beat.
Wedding Gift (7) returned from a layoff four weeks ago and finished fourth at Delta Downs over a mile, beaten only 2.25 lengths. David Cardoso rides for Mark Hibdon, and the jockey-trainer combination is one of the best at Fonner. Cardoso knows how to get the best from this horse. The cutback from a mile to six furlongs should not be a problem given his tactical speed profile.
Secondary Choices
Seven Taylors (3) is a new addition to the Stetson Rushton stable, most recently finishing in the placings at Remington Park before a break. Nathan Haar takes the mount. He has not trialed publicly, but his Remington form is solid enough to put him among the contenders in this group.
Anchor Line (5) is a Fonner Park-bred runner who finished fifth at this track last prep, beaten four lengths over six-and-a-half furlongs. Jose Medina rides for Jason Wise. He ran well enough here last year to suggest he is competitive at this level.
Longshots
Brody’s Treasure (1) and Lucky’s Secret (2) are the outside chances. Lucky’s Secret draws inside with Alex Birzer up for Kelli Martinez and could benefit from a forwardly placed trip.
Betting Strategy
Forthelonghaul (6) offers the best value proposition in this race at a projected generous price. A win bet on the 6, paired with an exacta keying 6 on top of 7 and 3, is the play. For wider coverage, include 5 underneath in trifectas.
Selections
Win: Forthelonghaul (6)
Place: Wedding Gift (7)
Show: Seven Taylors (3)
Race 5 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Purse $6,900
Post Time: 3:26 PM CST
A $2,500 claiming event at six furlongs for horses that have not won two races in 2025-2026. Eight runners are entered in what shapes up as one of the more wide-open races on the card.
Pace Analysis
Letshaveonemore (1) and Jake the Great (3) figure to contest the early lead, with Fleet of Hoof (4) and Sweet Rachel (8) also capable of showing speed. The abundance of early pace could set this race up for a closer like Denington (5) or Beggin for Trouble (7) to run on late.
Key Contenders
Letshaveonemore (1) is the consensus pick at 5-2 morning line odds and draws the rail in this six-furlong race. He returns from a ten-week layoff and hit the frame when last resuming at Fair Grounds over six furlongs. He is now in a different yard under Jason Wise with Jose Medina aboard. The rail, the proven ability to run well fresh, and a leading jockey make this one the rightful favorite.
Denington (5) finished third last time out at Will Rogers Downs over six furlongs, beaten four lengths. He hit the line nicely and should be poised to run on again in the stretch under Travis Cunningham for Marvin Johnson. He is probably the horse best positioned to benefit if the pace is contentious up front.
Secondary Choices
Beggin for Trouble (7) is a four-year-old gelding making his first start for the David Anderson stable. He has not raced since a sixth at Hawthorne four-and-a-half months ago, but the move to a new yard at a small track often sparks improvement. Alex Birzer rides, and a bold showing is expected.
Lucky Break (2) has not raced since a second-place finish over six furlongs at Horsemen’s Park in July, but the layoff has been accompanied by a change of venue and he has found a soft spot. Adrian Ramos rides for Richard Dean Bliss.
Longshots
Pervasive (6) for John Muckey with Scott Bethke aboard is a price play if the pace falls apart. Sweet Rachel (8) has speed but tends to flatten out late.
Betting Strategy
Letshaveonemore (1) is a strong single in win wagers. For exactas, key the 1 on top of 5, 7, and 2. The trifecta play is 1 over 5, 7, 2 over 5, 7, 2, 3, 6 for deeper value.
Selections
Win: Letshaveonemore (1)
Place: Denington (5)
Show: Beggin for Trouble (7)
Race 6 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Purse $9,200
Post Time: 3:55 PM CST
A $5,000 claiming event at six furlongs for non-winners of four (or horses that have not won since August 21, 2025). Eight runners are entered.
Pace Analysis
El Mero Mero (4) and Midnight Rules (7) should fight for the early lead, with Husker Butch (1) also showing enough early foot to be involved. Magnet and Steel (5) could stalk from behind the leaders. The pace figures to be contested, which could set up a mid-pack runner for a late surge.
Key Contenders
El Mero Mero (4) is the clear morning line favorite at 8-5, having been identified as the consensus selection by handicappers. His last effort at Delta Downs was a disappointing fifth over six-and-a-half furlongs, but this field is considerably weaker. Belen Quinonez rides for Isai V. Gonzalez. This spot does not look as hard as what he has been facing, and he is likely to play a significant role from an inside-middle draw.
Subsidize (2) is an eight-year-old gelding making his first start for the Trevor Rushton stable. He closed out his last campaign with an 11th in stakes class at Arapahoe Park three-and-a-half months ago. The massive class drop from stakes company to $5,000 claiming is a huge positive, even considering his poor finish. Adrian Ramos rides, and the horse looks well placed in this spot.
Secondary Choices
Master Game (6) ran fifth over a mile-and-a-half at Turfway Park in his last start, missing by eight lengths. He now cuts back dramatically to six furlongs for Kelli Martinez with Alex Birzer aboard. The cutback should improve his speed figures, and he looks to be in the right place at the right time.
Optimal Trip (3) returns from a layoff after a poor eighth over a mile at Prairie Meadows. He drops significantly in class and could benefit from the shorter distance. Nathan Haar rides for Grady Thompson.
Longshots
Somersetslastride (8) for the Bethke barn is the deep closer in the field and could pick up a minor share if the pace falls apart. Husker Butch (1) has the rail and could benefit if he can grab the early lead unchallenged.
Betting Strategy
El Mero Mero (4) is the logical favorite but at 8-5 does not offer much value. A more creative approach is to key Subsidize (2) in exotic wagers, given his class drop. Exacta: box 4 and 2, backed up with a trifecta of 4, 2 over 4, 2, 6 over 6, 3, 1, 8.
Selections
Win: El Mero Mero (4)
Place: Subsidize (2)
Show: Master Game (6)
Race 7 — Allowance, 6 Furlongs, Purse $16,000
Post Time: 4:24 PM CST
An open allowance race at six furlongs for three-year-olds and upward with winners preferred. Eight runners make this a strong field with a generous $16,000 purse.
Pace Analysis
Ben Diesel (2) and Forced Ranking (8) may contest the early lead, while Sprint Out Pass (5) figures to come from off the pace. Judo (7) could sit in a stalking position early. The pace should be moderate, which often benefits horses with tactical speed at Fonner. Blow Torch (1) has the rail and could grab early position cheaply.
Key Contenders
Judo (7) is a six-year-old gelding making his first start for the David Anderson yard. He comes off a fourth-place finish in Listed grade at Assiniboia Downs five months ago, which represents by far the highest level of recent competition in this field. Victor Bailon rides. Though he has not trialed publicly, his class edge is significant and he looks nicely placed to make an immediate impact.
Sprint Out Pass (5) ran fourth over six-and-a-half furlongs at Turfway Park in his most recent start, beaten 4.5 lengths. He now ships to Fonner for Kelli Martinez with Alex Birzer aboard. Birzer is a veteran presence who should give this horse every chance from a mid-draw post. He has the ability to figure prominently.
Secondary Choices
Numero Siete (4) finished fourth over a mile at Delta Downs a week-and-a-half ago after being in contention on the turn. The cutback to six furlongs should help his speed figures. David Cardoso goes aboard for Mark Hibdon, and Cardoso consistently extracts maximum effort from his mounts.
Nullarbor (6) closed his last campaign with a minor placing over a mile at Prairie Meadows. He returns for the Larry Donlin, Jr. barn with Nathan Haar aboard. He has proven form at this level and has to be respected on his best day.
Longshots
Blow Torch (1) draws the rail with Xavier Pickner up for Schuyler Condon. The inside draw at Fonner is always valuable, and if he can grab the early lead, the five-furlong oval geometry works in his favor. He is worth a small saver bet at a likely generous price.
Betting Strategy
Judo (7) has the class edge but carries the uncertainty of a new barn and extended layoff. A win bet on the 7 supplemented with an exacta box of 7, 5, and 4 provides strong coverage. For trifectas, include 6 and 1 underneath for value.
Selections
Win: Judo (7)
Place: Sprint Out Pass (5)
Show: Numero Siete (4)
Race 8 — Allowance (NE Bred), 4 Furlongs, Purse $18,200
Post Time: 4:53 PM CST
A certified Nebraska-bred allowance at four furlongs with winners preferred, carrying the second-highest purse on the card at $18,200. Nine runners are entered, making this a large and competitive field for a four-furlong dash.
Pace Analysis
City Slicken (1), General Shipman (4), and Caleb On the Go (3) all have the tactical speed to contest the early lead. Ships Log (8) and Mo Summer (9) may be forced to stalk from further back given their outside draws. In a nine-horse field at four furlongs, the break from the gate and the run into the first turn will be chaotic and decisive.
Key Contenders
Ships Log (8) started his last campaign impressively when placing over four furlongs at this track. He returns for Marvin Johnson with Belen Quinonez aboard. Despite the outside draw in a nine-horse field, his Fonner form gives him a significant edge in track knowledge and surface preference. He rates highly and should take some beating.
Mo Summer (9) also returns from a layoff and placed when returning fresh at this track during his last campaign. Jose Medina rides for David Anderson. Like Ships Log, the outside draw is a concern in a four-furlong race, but his proven ability to run well first-up at Fonner is a major positive.
Secondary Choices
Nebraska Gold (7) won at this track when returning from a layoff last prep, making him a proven fresh runner on this surface. Adrian Ramos rides for Kelli Martinez. He is among the better hopes in this race.
General Shipman (4) makes his first start for the Isai V. Gonzalez barn, resuming from a four-month layoff. He placed when resuming last campaign at Remington Park on turf, and the move to dirt at Fonner is an unknown. Alex Birzer rides from a favorable inside-middle draw.
Longshots
They Call Me Moose (2) draws well from the two post with Nathan Haar aboard for Grady Thompson. The inside draw is a major asset in four-furlong races at Fonner, and this horse could outrun his odds if he breaks sharply. Yayasgotmoregame (6) is the veteran of the field at nine years old and could pick up a minor check from the six hole.
Betting Strategy
The four-furlong distance and large field make this race a strong candidate for wider exotic play. Ships Log (8) and Mo Summer (9) are the top two choices but both draw wide, creating value on inside speed. A trifecta box of 8, 9, and 7 is the primary play, but adding They Call Me Moose (2) and General Shipman (4) underneath provides insurance against the inevitable chaos of a nine-horse four-furlong sprint.
Selections
Win: Ships Log (8)
Place: Mo Summer (9)
Show: Nebraska Gold (7)
Race 9 — Grasmick Stakes, 4 Furlongs, Purse $20,000 Added
Post Time: 5:22 PM CST
The featured race of the card is the 59th running of the Grasmick Stakes, a $20,000-added four-furlong test for three-year-olds and upward. This is the first stakes race of the 2026 Fonner Park meet and drew 31 nominations, with eight finalists making the field. The race drew significant attention after Paynted Blue was cross-entered from a $75,000 stakes at Delta Downs.
Pace Analysis
This race figures to have a contested pace. Under Oath (1), India Ink (8), and Bolt Forty Five (6) all possess early speed. Paynted Blue (3) can sit close to the pace or press it. Spirit’s Mischief (2) and Axel Steel (5) are more likely to stalk or come from off the pace. The pace should be sharp and honest, which could benefit horses sitting just behind the speed.
Key Contenders
Paynted Blue (3) is the morning line favorite at 2-1 and arrives as the class of the field. He won at Delta Downs two starts ago and was a competitive second in his most recent effort, beaten only half a length over six-and-a-half furlongs at Delta Downs in an allowance optional claiming race. He was claimed for $15,000 by owner-trainer Mark Hibdon on January 10 and brings a career record of four wins, seven seconds, and two thirds in 23 starts with $93,640 in earnings. The cutback from six-and-a-half furlongs to four furlongs is the one question mark, but he has shown enough tactical speed to suggest the shorter distance will not be an issue. Jose Medina rides from a favorable inside draw. Hibdon is one of the most successful trainers at Fonner, and his confidence in entering this horse first off the claim in stakes company speaks volumes.
Spirit’s Mischief (2) is the defending Grasmick Stakes champion, having won this race last year at 8-1 odds. He returns for Schuyler Condon with Adrian Ramos aboard. He carries 122 pounds (three pounds less than the top weight), which gives him a slight weight advantage over Under Oath. Prior Grasmick winners who return often run well, as they have proven they can handle Fonner’s tight turns and short straightaway. He should stalk the early pace and unleash a rally in the stretch.
Under Oath (1) draws the coveted rail and returns from a two-and-a-half month layoff. He placed when returning from a layoff last campaign at Arapahoe Park. Nathan Haar rides for Stetson Rushton. He carries top weight at 125 pounds but the rail draw at four furlongs is an enormous advantage at Fonner. If he breaks sharply and establishes early position, the rail could carry him to a wire-to-wire victory.
Secondary Choices
India Ink (8) bounced back in his last start, winning by 1.75 lengths after being prominent at the turn over five furlongs at Delta Downs. He faces a tougher assignment here but is good enough to figure in the finish. David Cardoso rides for Mark Hibdon, giving the Hibdon barn a potent two-pronged attack in this stakes.
Axel Steel (5) was a disappointing seventh, beaten ten lengths, when resuming last start over six furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs. However, he has a very strong second-up record, and handicappers should not dismiss him based on that single poor effort. Travis Cunningham rides for Schuyler Condon. If he improves as his running pattern suggests, he could factor late.
Longshots
Bolt Forty Five (6) carries only 120 pounds with Alex Birzer aboard for Sean Foley. At a light weight with a strong jockey, he could outrun his odds if the pace is especially contentious. Diamond City (7) draws the seven hole with Xavier Pickner for Schuyler Condon and is looking for a better trip after inconsistent form. More Than Destiny (4) rounds out the field at 120 pounds with Belen Quinonez for Marvin Johnson.
Betting Strategy
This is the race to invest in on the card. Paynted Blue (3) is the rightful favorite and should be used as the primary key. However, Spirit’s Mischief (2) as the defending champion and Under Oath (1) from the rail both demand respect. The recommended play is an exacta key of Paynted Blue (3) on top of Under Oath (1), Spirit’s Mischief (2), and India Ink (8), backed by a trifecta of 3 over 1, 2, 8 over 1, 2, 5, 8, 6. For win wagering, Paynted Blue (3) at 2-1 or better offers solid value for the quality he brings.
Selections
Win: Paynted Blue (3)
Place: Spirit’s Mischief (2)
Show: Under Oath (1)
Race 10 — Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Purse $11,000
Post Time: 5:51 PM CST
The nightcap is a maiden special weight at six furlongs for three-year-olds and upward. A field of ten is entered, making this the largest field on the card. Maiden races at Fonner tend to be unpredictable, but handicapping fundamentals still apply.
Pace Analysis
Noble Reign (1), Golden Hurricane (5), and Notime Formischief (8) all possess enough speed to contest the early pace. In a ten-horse maiden race, the first turn will be congested, and horses that can avoid trouble and establish clean position will have a significant advantage. Speed from inside posts is especially valuable in large-field six-furlong maiden events.
Key Contenders
Noble Reign (1) resumes from a ten-week layoff and looked close to a win before that break, finishing with a placing over five-and-a-half furlongs at Remington Park. He draws the rail, which is a significant aid in a field of ten. Nathan Haar rides for Stacey Rushton. His ability and inside draw make him the one to beat in this maiden event.
Notime Formischief (8) has been improving and finished 1.5 lengths away in fourth over seven furlongs at Delta Downs in his most recent start after being in contention on the turn. He now cuts back to six furlongs for Mark Hibdon with David Cardoso up. Hibdon wins at 38% at this meet, an extraordinary hit rate, and he has placed this horse suitably.
Secondary Choices
Secreto Uno (2) is on the scratch watch (stewards), but if he runs, he improved last time at Turfway Park over six furlongs. Alex Birzer rides for Kelli Martinez from the two post. The inside draw is favorable, and Birzer’s experience could make the difference in a chaotic maiden sprint.
Covert Quality (4) finished third over a mile at Prairie Meadows last time out and now makes his first start for trainer Annie Hansen Hines. Victor Bailon rides from the four post. He looks to be one of the genuine hopes in the race, though the trainer switch adds some uncertainty.
Longshots
Ima Boxer Boy (3) for Marvin Johnson with Travis Cunningham aboard draws inside and could benefit from a clean break. Aryton (10) ships in for Schuyler Condon with Xavier Pickner up and is worth a look at a price. Leavenodoubt (9) is a first-time starter to monitor for any tote action.
Betting Strategy
Noble Reign (1) from the rail is the top selection but maiden races are inherently volatile. Spread in exactas and trifectas using Noble Reign (1) and Notime Formischief (8) on top, with Secreto Uno (2) (if he runs) and Covert Quality (4) filling the bottom slots. This is a good race to play defensively with wider tickets rather than heavy win bets.
Selections
Win: Noble Reign (1)
Place: Notime Formischief (8)
Show: Covert Quality (4)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jose Medina is the jockey to follow on this card. He has extensive experience at Fonner Park and knows the track’s nuances better than most. He rode five winners on a single card at Fonner during the 2024 meet opening, demonstrating his dominance at this venue. Today he has strong mounts in Race 1 (James’s Moonshine), Race 2 (To Too Twentytwo), Race 3 (It’s Notmyproblem), Race 5 (Letshaveonemore), Race 8 (Mo Summer), and the featured Grasmick Stakes aboard morning line favorite Paynted Blue (Race 9). His familiarity with Fonner’s tight turns and speed-favoring surface gives him a tactical edge, particularly in four-furlong races.
Alex Birzer is a veteran rider who brings polish and experience to every mount. He has mounts in seven races today, including Guitar Doctor (Race 1), Prints Money (Race 2), Sprint Out Pass (Race 7), General Shipman (Race 8), and Bolt Forty Five (Race 9). Birzer’s ability to get horses to settle and save ground around Fonner’s tight turns makes him especially effective in the six-furlong two-turn races.
Travis Cunningham was the hot hand during the 2026 opening weekend, winning multiple races on February 14. He has solid mounts today including Papa’s Nico Boy (Race 2), Goin Owen (Race 3), Hello Sunshine (Race 4), Denington (Race 5), Magnet and Steel (Race 6), Forced Ranking (Race 7), Caleb On the Go (Race 8), Axel Steel (Race 9), and Ima Boxer Boy (Race 10). His confidence level should be high coming off a strong opening card.
Nathan Haar is another consistent performer in the Fonner jockey colony. He rides State School Smart (Race 1), Seven Taylors (Race 4), Jake the Great (Race 5), Optimal Trip (Race 6), Nullarbor (Race 7), They Call Me Moose (Race 8), Under Oath (Race 9), and Noble Reign (Race 10). His ability to rate horses off the pace and deliver them at the right moment is valuable in the longer six-furlong events.
David Cardoso has a strong book today with mounts for Mark Hibdon in key spots. He rides Flame Rock Fire (Race 2), Wedding Gift (Race 4), Numero Siete (Race 7), India Ink (Race 9), and Notime Formischief (Race 10). The Cardoso-Hibdon partnership is one of the most productive at Fonner, and bettors should track these connections closely.
Belen Quinonez was sharp on opening day with multiple victories on February 14, including wins in Races 4, 5, and 10. She rides today in Race 1 (Campton), Race 2 (Storm Strategy), Race 5 (Sweet Rachel), Race 6 (El Mero Mero), Race 8 (Ships Log), Race 9 (More Than Destiny), and Race 10 (Millie O Nayer).
Trainer Notes and Insights
Mark Hibdon is the trainer to watch on this card, with an extraordinary win rate of approximately 38% at the current Fonner meet. He saddles horses in eight of the ten races today, including key contenders like It’s Notmyproblem (Race 3), Brody’s Treasure and Wedding Gift (Race 4), Flame Rock Fire (Race 2), Numero Siete (Race 7), and the one-two punch of Paynted Blue and India Ink in the Grasmick Stakes (Race 9). Hibdon also sends out Notime Formischief in the maiden nightcap (Race 10). His ability to place horses where they can win and his success rate off the claim make every Hibdon starter a serious contender. He set the national mark for most wins by one horse in 2024 when his Tennessee Moon won 13 of 18 starts.
Isai V. Gonzalez has multiple entries including Storm Strategy (Race 2), Campton (Race 1), El Mero Mero (Race 6), General Shipman (Race 8), and Sweet Rachel (Race 5). El Mero Mero in Race 6 is his most likely winner, and his strength is placing horses where they fit on class.
David C. Anderson operates a deep barn at Fonner and sends out Beggin for Trouble (Race 5), Magnet and Steel (Race 6), Judo and Time Muse (Race 7), City Slicken and Mo Summer (Race 8). Judo in Race 7 represents his best chance of the day, coming off competitive form at a higher level. Anderson’s runners often show significant improvement in their second or third start of a campaign.
Kelli Martinez campaigns a string of competitive runners including Prints Money (Race 2), Lucky’s Secret (Race 4), Master Game and Midnight Rules (Race 6), Sprint Out Pass (Race 7), Nebraska Gold (Race 8), and Secreto Uno and Golden Hurricane (Race 10). She works well with jockey Alex Birzer, and the Martinez-Birzer pairing is worth noting throughout the card.
Schuyler Condon trains three entrants in the Grasmick Stakes — Spirit’s Mischief, Axel Steel, and Diamond City — giving him the strongest stakes hand of any trainer today. Spirit’s Mischief as the defending champion is his best shot, and the Condon barn has consistently produced stakes runners at this meet.
Stetson Rushton has a diverse set of entries including State School Smart (Race 1), Fleet of Hoof (Race 5), Seven Taylors and Forthelonghaul (Race 4), Under Oath (Race 9), Lone Ryder and Millie O Nayer (Race 10), and Noble Reign (Race 10 via Stacey Rushton). The Rushton barn typically does well with horses returning from layoffs.
Jason Wise trains To Too Twentytwo (Race 2), Letshaveonemore (Race 5), One Lucky Boy (Race 3), and Anchor Line (Race 4). Letshaveonemore is his best shot of the day in Race 5.
Grady Thompson saddles Turn N Burn Boss (Race 3), Optimal Trip (Race 6), They Call Me Moose (Race 8), and Hello Sunshine (Race 4). Turn N Burn Boss could be a live longshot in the NE-bred allowance if he runs as well fresh as he did last campaign.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Fonner Park card offers several clear angles for bettors today. The overall approach should prioritize speed horses in the four-furlong races and look for stalkers with a clean trip in the six-furlong events. Here are the recommended strategies:
Best Win Bet of the Day: Letshaveonemore (1) in Race 5 offers the strongest profile on the card — a proven horse at this level returning from a layoff with a history of running well fresh, drawing the rail with Jose Medina aboard. He should be a solid favorite and is the type of horse worth a strong win commitment.
Best Value Play: Forthelonghaul (6) in Race 4 at 8-1 morning line odds represents substantial overlay potential. He won on debut at Tampa Bay Downs and fits well on class at this level. If he shows anything close to that form, the price should be generous and the payoff rewarding.
Grasmick Stakes Strategy: The Grasmick (Race 9) is the marquee betting race. Paynted Blue (3) at 2-1 morning line is the deserved favorite with the best recent form and a top trainer-jockey combo. However, Spirit’s Mischief (2) as the defending champion and Under Oath (1) from the rail at longer odds create exacta and trifecta value. The recommended exacta is to key Paynted Blue (3) on top over Under Oath (1), Spirit’s Mischief (2), and India Ink (8). A trifecta play of 3 over 1, 2, 8 over 1, 2, 5, 6, 8 provides full coverage with upside.
Pick 3 Late Sequence (Races 8-9-10): This sequence offers the strongest play of the afternoon. In Race 8, use Ships Log (8), Mo Summer (9), and Nebraska Gold (7). In Race 9, use Paynted Blue (3) and Spirit’s Mischief (2). In Race 10, use Noble Reign (1) and Notime Formischief (8). A 3x2x2 ticket costs $12 for a $1 base and provides excellent coverage of the three most playable late races.
Pick 5 Strategy: The early Pick 5 (Races 1-5) can be attacked by singling James’s Moonshine (1) in Race 1 and Letshaveonemore (1) in Race 5, then spreading in Races 2, 3, and 4. Using 1 / 5, 4, 1 / 5, 1, 6 / 6, 7, 3 / 1 creates a 1x3x3x3x1 ticket (27 combos) at $54 for a $2 unit, which is a manageable cost for the early sequence.
Daily Double (Races 9-10): The Grasmick into the maiden nightcap is an attractive late double. Using Paynted Blue (3) and Spirit’s Mischief (2) in Race 9 over Noble Reign (1) and Notime Formischief (8) in Race 10 creates a 2×2 ticket for $8 at a $2 base.
Cold Weather Edge: Track surfaces in cold weather tend to play faster and harder, which benefits speed even more than usual. Lean into front-runners in all four-furlong races today. The morning cold may create a surface that is less forgiving to late runners, reinforcing the speed bias that already exists at Fonner Park.
Scratch Watch Impact: Monitor Guitar Doctor (Race 1), Doris Avenue (Race 2), and Secreto Uno (Race 10) closely. If Guitar Doctor scratches, the field in Race 1 drops to five and strengthens James’s Moonshine considerably. If Doris Avenue scratches from Race 2, it reduces the pace scenario and may help To Too Twentytwo. If Secreto Uno scratches from Race 10, Noble Reign’s rail advantage becomes even more pronounced.
