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Gulfstream Park presents a loaded 12-race Saturday card headlined by the $125,000 Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes (Race 10), a six-furlong dirt dash for older horses. The card features a well-balanced mix: two maiden special weight turf events at 7 1/2 furlongs (Races 1 and 12), a maiden claiming dirt sprint (Race 2), a pair of claiming races on dirt and Tapeta (Races 3 and 4), a maiden claiming Tapeta sprint (Race 5), two allowance optional claiming turf routes (Races 6 and 9), a starter optional claiming dirt sprint (Race 7), a maiden special weight dirt route (Race 8), and a claiming Tapeta route for fillies and mares (Race 11).
First post is 12:20 p.m. ET. The 52-foot turf rail is set for both turf events today, with no expectation of surface switches given the clear weather forecast. The card also includes the Sunset 6 wager connecting Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita across the final three races at each track. Horseplayers should note several scratches to watch on the card, including recent veterinarian flags on Deference (Race 1) and Bombs Away (Race 2), and stakes scratches previously on Con Compania (Race 10) and Wound Up (Race 10) — though both are currently entered today. Three to G (Race 1) was a vet scratch on February 12 but returned and is entered here.
Weather and Track Conditions
Hallandale Beach will enjoy near-ideal racing weather today. The forecast calls for mostly sunny skies with a high of 80-81 degrees Fahrenheit and a low near 69 degrees. Southeast winds will be light at 5-10 mph through the morning, increasing slightly to 8-9 mph from the east-southeast by mid-afternoon. Humidity will start around 80% in the morning and taper to approximately 62% by the afternoon.
There is zero percent probability of precipitation throughout the racing hours, meaning all turf races should remain on the grass and the Tapeta surface will be in typical condition. The track should play fast on the dirt and firm on the turf. A cold front approaches Sunday, but today’s racing will be unaffected. These conditions favor standard speed-and-class profiles across all surfaces.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Understanding the prevailing biases at the current Gulfstream Park Championship Meet is critical for handicapping today’s card. Data from the meet (November 27 through mid-February) reveals some clear patterns across surfaces.
On the dirt in sprint races, posts 1-3 have been winning at a 45% clip, with early speed and pace-pressing types converting at a high rate. However, stalkers have been closing the gap recently, winning 43% of dirt sprints in the latest sample weeks. In dirt routes of a mile or longer, the profile is more balanced: stalkers hold a slight edge, and inside posts 1-3 have won frequently, though posts 4-6 are competitive and the advantage is less pronounced than in sprints.
On the turf in route races, closers are dominating at a remarkable 51-52% win rate. Early speed has been struggling badly in turf routes, winning only about 14% of the time. Stalkers are the second-best style at 43%. With the rail at 52 feet, ground-saving trips are valuable, but inside closers have actually struggled, meaning a mid-track or outside closing rally has been the winning profile. In turf sprints, stalkers have been winning 50% of the time.
On the Tapeta surface, early speed wins 51% of sprint races, making it very favorable to pace-pressers in the short distances. In Tapeta routes, posts 4-6 have been winning 43% of the time consistently.
These bias trends will be woven into the race-by-race analysis below.
Race 1 — Maiden Special Weight, 7 1/2 Furlongs Turf, $84,000
Post Time: 12:20 PM ET
This is a large field of 13 three-year-old fillies going two turns on the grass for the first time for many. Several first-time starters and surface switchers make this a challenging opener.
Pace Analysis
Three to G (PP7) showed early speed in her lone career start and figures to be prominent early under Irad Ortiz Jr. Voluntary (PP6) and River Ride (PP9) may also show some tactical speed. With a large field, expect moderate-to-honest fractions that should set up for stalkers and closers, which aligns perfectly with the turf route bias favoring off-the-pace runners.
Key Contenders
Three to G (PP7) is the clear morning-line favorite at 2-1 and draws wide consensus support. She ran a game career debut and now makes a significant rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr. for trainer Danny Gargan. The concern is price — she will be hammered at the windows and may go off below 2-1 in this spot. Little Georgie (PP2) turned in a solid main-track debut behind stablemate La Dolce Vita, has been freshened, and now switches to the turf off several sharp breezes, including a swift half-mile work on February 6 when besting multiple allowance winner Ultimate Authority in company. She sheds blinkers and could get the jump on speed if she breaks well.
Secondary Choices
Copacabana (PP3) makes her second career start for the formidable Todd Pletcher-John Velazquez combination, and second-starters from this barn routinely improve. Jokette (PP8) is one of two Brendan Walsh first-time starters and may be the better of the two, especially off a strong February 13 work with MSW grass-winning stablemate Surprise Ending. Javier Castellano takes the ride.
Longshots
Lady of Lords (PP10) is the other Walsh trainee and could offer value at a bigger number. Four Three Forty (PP4) for George Weaver is worth a look as a new face with Luca Panici aboard.
Betting Strategy
The turf route bias heavily favors closers, so look for runners who can sit off the pace. Three to G is the obvious threat but may offer no value. A Daily Double strategy keying underneath horses like Little Georgie and Copacabana with the Race 2 contenders could yield value. Consider spreading in the exacta: 2, 3, 7, 8 in boxes or part-wheels.
Selections
Win: 7 Three to G
Place: 2 Little Georgie
Show: 3 Copacabana
Race 2 — Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, $38,000
Post Time: 12:50 PM ET
A small but competitive field of eight three-year-old fillies sprinting on the main track. The $35,000 claiming tag makes this a place where runners with experience have an advantage.
Pace Analysis
This shapes up as a moderate pace. Affluenza (PP3) should be forward from the gate, and Sweet Dream Lady (PP8) has shown tactical speed in her recent efforts. The dirt sprint bias favoring inside posts and speed types sets up well for inside-drawn runners with pace.
Key Contenders
Sweet Dream Lady (PP8) has paired Beyer top figures in her last two starts and was beaten just a neck for second in her latest by Turkish Pistachio, who returned to defeat similar company with a 74 Beyer. She is well posted to take advantage of the prevailing track bias. Trainer Michael Yates makes a smart distance cutback and hires Renzo Rojas to ride. Affluenza (PP3) showed promise in the mornings going into her debut but got pinned on a dead rail throughout and never had a fair chance. She now comes up tagged for her second start and Tyler Gaffalione picks up the mount. Despite drawing inside once more, she deserves another chance if she can avoid traffic.
Secondary Choices
Nasti Z (PP6) held her own in morning workouts prepping for her debut with stablemate Justina, who has beaten $50,000 company. Launching her career for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. with Micah Husbands aboard, she demands respect as a first-time starter from a powerful barn. Pom Pom (PP2) gets Irad Ortiz Jr., and the jockey alone commands attention at the maiden claiming level.
Longshots
Lady Lullaby (PP4) draws attention with apprentice Carlos Martinez and the five-pound weight break, getting in light at 113 pounds. At a price, she could surprise.
Betting Strategy
Sweet Dream Lady is the most proven runner in the field and fits the dirt sprint bias well. Use her as the key in the Daily Double with Race 1 selections. A straight win bet has merit. Exacta part-wheel: 8 over 2, 3, 6.
Selections
Win: 8 Sweet Dream Lady
Place: 3 Affluenza
Show: 6 Nasti Z
Race 3 — Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, $23,500
Post Time: 1:20 PM ET
A small field of seven older males contesting a $6,250 claiming event going 6 1/2 furlongs on the main track. This is a bottom-level affair where recent form and trip advantages matter most.
Pace Analysis
Sound of the Beast (PP1) and Gallant Knight (PP6) are the likely pace setters. Gallant Knight profiles as a “fastest leader” type, while Sound of the Beast is a “fast stalker.” With Outlaw Country (PP5) as a deep closer, there should be moderate early pressure. The dirt sprint bias favoring inside posts and speed gives Sound of the Beast a positional advantage, but handicappers note he has benefited from that bias in both recent wins and may be vulnerable at a short price today.
Key Contenders
Gallant Knight (PP6) stays put off the claim and ran a game race in defeat when pinned down on the rail behind eventual winner Sound of the Beast last time. He now draws outside that rival and picks up Irad Ortiz Jr., a massive rider upgrade that could flip the script. With a fastest-leader running style and 23% career win rate, he is the one to beat. Lou the Body (PP7) had a slow start last out but closed full of run for second when dropping to this tag for the first time. He turns back to 6 1/2 furlongs off a series of longer tries, which should help his closing kick. Rajiv Maragh stays aboard.
Secondary Choices
Sound of the Beast (PP1) is a logical choice off two consecutive wins but benefited from favorable track bias on both occasions and draws inside again. At a short morning line of 3-2, he may offer no value and could be vulnerable with Gallant Knight drawing outside and getting a better trip.
Longshots
Outlaw Country (PP5) has extensive experience with a 23% career win rate over 39 starts and $523,000 in earnings, far more than this field. He profiles as a deep closer and may find this sprint distance too short, but Kelly Breen is the meet’s hottest trainer in this category (50% win rate recently).
Betting Strategy
Gallant Knight with Ortiz is the play in a race where the favorite may be overbet. Win bet on Gallant Knight, with a saver exacta box of 6-7 and part-wheel exacta 6 over 1, 5, 7.
Selections
Win: 6 Gallant Knight
Place: 7 Lou the Body
Show: 1 Sound of the Beast
Race 4 — Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Synthetic, $24,500
Post Time: 1:50 PM ET
Eight older males sprint 5 1/2 furlongs on the Tapeta surface with a $8,000 claiming tag. The Tapeta sprint bias strongly favors early speed at 51%.
Pace Analysis
Loud Applause (PP1) is the likely early leader from his rail draw. Kantharos Jr (PP2) and El Muheet (PP7) could also press. With the Tapeta surface favoring speed, the early pace scenario may be contested, which could set up for a stalker or presser.
Key Contenders
Lodato (PP3) is the consensus pick across handicappers, coming off a well-graded maiden win with jockey Katie Davis, who has impressed multiple trainers since arriving in Florida from New York. He is well spotted dropping in class and should sit a stalking trip just off the speed. Loud Applause (PP1) was hard used contesting the pace when dropped last time but picks up veteran rider Edgard Zayas and could stand some catching on graduation day if he breaks cleanly from his inside draw.
Secondary Choices
G Speedy (PP6) gets class relief while returning to his preferred Tapeta surface. He was reclaimed by current connections earlier in the session, suggesting they know what they have. Last Run (PP8) and Grand Joker (PP4) could fill out the bottom of the exotics.
Longshots
Saint Cloud (PP5) is a colt in a field of mostly geldings and could show improvement cutting back in distance for Victor Barboza Jr. El Muheet (PP7) for Joe Orseno has shown some morning speed.
Betting Strategy
Lodato is the clear top choice and should be used confidently. A win-and-place bet is warranted. Exacta part-wheel: 3 over 1, 6, 8.
Selections
Win: 3 Lodato
Place: 1 Loud Applause
Show: 6 G Speedy
Race 5 — Maiden Claiming, 5 Furlongs Synthetic, $29,000
Post Time: 2:20 PM ET
Eleven three-year-old fillies sprint five furlongs on the Tapeta. With many first-time starters and the short distance, this is a volatile race ripe for an upset.
Pace Analysis
This short sprint on the Tapeta, where early speed wins 51% of the time, favors horses who can break alertly and establish position quickly. Harpy (PP9) should be forwardly placed, and several first-time starters make pace projections difficult.
Key Contenders
Harpy (PP9) drops sharply in class for her local debut after having brutal trips in both previous New York starts, including a race from which the winner ultimately became a stakes winner. She held her own in works with allowance-winning mate Wooton and should be on or near the lead from the outset. Little Gussie (PP8) has been a beaten favorite in each of her last three starts but gets additional class relief off the claim and the significant upgrade of Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time. It is now-or-never time for this one.
Secondary Choices
Tiger Eye Pearl (PP4) demands respect as a new face in a weak field. Workout reports indicate she will debut wearing blinkers, which is always a positive sign for a first-timer in a cheap maiden claiming spot. Chispuda (PP11) drew multiple picks across handicapping outlets and could rally from off the pace if the early speed collapses.
Longshots
Cuddle the Kitten (PP10) has Tyler Gaffalione for trainer Happy Alter and could offer value as a first-time starter. Miss Candy Girl (PP3) showed some ability in her recent works.
Betting Strategy
This is a volatile field where the favorites have been unreliable. Spread in the exotics. Trifecta key: 8, 9 over 4, 10, 11 over all. If singling is needed, lean toward Harpy based on class drop.
Selections
Win: 9 Harpy
Place: 8 Little Gussie
Show: 4 Tiger Eye Pearl
Race 6 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, $86,000
Post Time: 2:50 PM ET
A competitive field of 10 fillies and mares four and up going two turns on the grass. This is the first of two identical-condition turf routes on the card. The turf route closer bias is the dominant factor here.
Pace Analysis
This field does not have a dominant speed type, and the turf route conditions strongly favor closers (51-52% win rate) and stalkers (43%). Phoenix of Wit (PP3) should be forwardly placed throughout and could get a soft lead. North End Lady (PP7) may also press, but the race sets up beautifully for those who can close from mid-pack or farther back.
Key Contenders
Phoenix of Wit (PP3) gets a shaky top nod in a wide-open field. She won a similar condition last month at Tampa and remains eligible for the category. She was second best to Chad Brown’s Peak Hype last fall in New York, and that rival subsequently finished fourth in the Pebbles Stakes. She should be forwardly placed throughout. Timeless Wonder (PP4) returns for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, who rehires John Velazquez. She won in this condition previously and the barn is always dangerous when bringing one back to repeat.
Secondary Choices
Starship Melody (PP2) returns to her preferred turf surface and posted a career-best Beyer figure last time on grass when finishing second. She looked sharp in a blowout workout last week. Javier Castellano picks up the mount. Jalila (PP5) was checked to last at the break and got hung extremely wide around the opening turn in her last allowance try. With a cleaner trip, she could be dangerous. Tyler Gaffalione rides.
Longshots
Ivory and Ebony (PP10) ships in for trainer Dale Romans with veteran Corey Lanerie aboard, seeking her first win of the meet. At 6-1 morning line, she offers value in a wide-open race. High South (PP9) is conditioned by sharp trainer George Arnold, who hires Mario Gutierrez for the occasion.
Betting Strategy
The closers’ bias makes this a race to spread wide. Exacta box of 3, 4, 5. Trifecta key: 3, 4 over 2, 5, 9, 10 over all. The Pick 4 begins at Race 9, but this race can set up multi-race sequencing with Races 7-8.
Selections
Win: 3 Phoenix of Wit
Place: 4 Timeless Wonder
Show: 5 Jalila
Race 7 — Starter Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, $33,000
Post Time: 3:20 PM ET
Seven older males sprint six furlongs on the dirt in a starter optional claiming event. The field is manageable, and the dirt sprint bias again favors inside speed and stalkers.
Pace Analysis
Zydeceaux (PP7) looks like the speed of the speed and could take this field a long way on the front end if kept out in better footing near mid-track. He Be Hoppin (PP1), Alarik (PP5), and Wound Up analogs could provide some early pressure, though this race has pace types spread throughout the field. Expect a moderate-to-honest pace that may favor a presser.
Key Contenders
Jimmies Big Day (PP6) broke from the rail last time and ran very well in defeat, getting pinned near the inside late while holding on for second behind a runaway winner who benefited from a mid-track path. Today he draws outside and returns to his preferred six-furlong distance. Micah Husbands rides for Saffie Joseph Jr., one of the meet’s best barns. To the Eastside (PP3) exits a very strong race won by classy veteran Mish, from which the runner-up already returned to win at even money with an 80 Beyer in his next start. His inside draw is the main concern given the rail has been somewhat dead at times.
Secondary Choices
Zydeceaux (PP7) is the front-end speed coming in fresh and could take them a long way if he gets out into better footing on the front end. He Be Hoppin (PP1) has the rail and could press from the inside.
Longshots
Alarik (PP5) gets apprentice Carlos Martinez and the weight break. Holy Stick (PP4) is also ridden by Martinez at 112 pounds.
Betting Strategy
Jimmies Big Day is the play from the outside draw. Win bet warranted. Exacta part-wheel: 6 over 3, 7. Trifecta: 6 over 3, 7 over 1, 3, 5, 7.
Selections
Win: 6 Jimmies Big Day
Place: 3 To the Eastside
Show: 7 Zydeceaux
Race 8 — Maiden Special Weight, 1-1/8 Miles Dirt, $84,000
Post Time: 3:50 PM ET
Seven three-year-olds tackle two turns at 1-1/8 miles on the main track. This is a high-quality maiden event with several promising runners and Kentucky Derby implications down the road.
Pace Analysis
This two-turn dirt route favors stalkers slightly over pure speed types. Fancy Gentleman (PP5) figures to sit a mid-pack stalking trip, while Gregarious (PP2) and Overview (PP4) may show some early presence. With only seven runners, expect an honest but not blistering pace.
Key Contenders
Fancy Gentleman (PP5) exited a very promising second-place finish behind well-graded debut winner Thunderously in his two-turn bow on January 10, finishing on the deep rail in the process. Tyler Gaffalione rides for trainer Danny Gargan, and this colt is the morning-line favorite at 7-5 with strong consensus support. He looks ready to graduate. Autobahn (PP7) also had the misfortune of catching a very promising division member, Canaletto, when finishing third trying a mile last time. He should move forward off that effort and is well posted outside with Irad Ortiz Jr.
Secondary Choices
Ovechkin (PP6) did not have the best of trips after getting shuffled around on the second turn when switching to turf in his three-year-old debut. He adds blinkers and has shown enough promise in morning workouts on dirt to suggest his best may be yet to come. He should offer value behind the top two choices. Infinite Light (PP3) runs for Todd Pletcher with John Velazquez and sports blinkers for his debut, making him a runner to respect based on connections alone.
Longshots
Gregarious (PP2) gets Javier Castellano for Jose Castro. Overview (PP4) is the second Pletcher entry but may need more distance.
Betting Strategy
Fancy Gentleman is the confident play. A straight win bet is appropriate here. Exacta part-wheel: 5 over 6, 7. Trifecta: 5 over 3, 6, 7 over all.
Selections
Win: 5 Fancy Gentleman
Place: 7 Autobahn
Show: 6 Ovechkin
Race 9 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, $86,000
Post Time: 4:20 PM ET
Eleven fillies and mares contest the second turf route on the card at 1-1/16 miles. This is the opening leg of the late Pick 4 sequence, and the turf route closer bias again dominates.
Pace Analysis
Lady Kathryn (PP6) figures to get loose on an easy lead at a square price. The question is how far she can carry that speed given the heavy closer bias in turf routes this meet. Expect stalkers and closers to dominate the finish once again.
Key Contenders
Maggie Go (PP11) is the consensus top choice, a Chad Brown trainee making her return to turf after a solid U.S. debut against decent Grade 3 foes last summer at Monmouth Park. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides, and the Brown-Ortiz combination is always dangerous on the grass. She should benefit from her last race on the main track. Pretty Lavish (PP9) had to take up briefly on the turn in her last race but finished best of all when dropping into this condition for the first time. She has stakes experience that should serve her well, and with cleaner sailing, she could be tough. Tyler Gaffalione rides.
Secondary Choices
Afrodita (PP8) has held her own with much better company and was beaten just a few lengths by Silver Moonlight two starts back. The fact she comes up tagged to be eligible is a slight concern, but the talent is there. Protective Custody (PP3) comes from the Shug McGaughey barn with John Velazquez, a classy combination on the grass.
Longshots
La Cantera (PP10) is an Irish-bred who could relish the turf and offers value at a bigger number. Lady Kathryn (PP6) could steal it on an easy lead if ignored, though the bias works against her.
Betting Strategy
Maggie Go is the anchor in Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences. Exacta part-wheel: 11 over 3, 8, 9. Use 9, 10, 11 in the Pick 4 for this leg as the spread.
Selections
Win: 11 Maggie Go
Place: 9 Pretty Lavish
Show: 8 Afrodita
Race 10 — Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes, 6 Furlongs Dirt, $125,000
Post Time: 4:50 PM ET
The feature race of the day, the Gulfstream Park Sprint Stakes, draws eight older sprinters going six furlongs on the main track. Multiple graded stakes winner Damon’s Mound (PP6) is the 7-5 morning-line favorite and clear class of the field.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario is the central question. Damon’s Mound wired the Sunshine Sprint in 1:09.19 and likes the front end. Wound Up (PP5) could press from just inside the favorite. Rolando (PP7), Ajaayb (PP3), and possibly Con Compania (PP8) could also show early foot. With multiple pace types engaged, expect competitive fractions of approximately 22 and change for the opening quarter and 45-flat for the half-mile. This could set up for a horse who can press or sit a stalking trip.
Key Contenders
Damon’s Mound (PP6) is a near-millionaire with six career stakes wins, including the Saratoga Special (G2), Gallant Bob (G2), and Bold Ruler (G3). He has won back-to-back Sunshine Sprints and is 2-for-2 at Gulfstream Park. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is 4-for-8 in stakes this Championship Meet, an elite rate. Regular rider Junior Alvarado knows this horse inside and out. He is the one to beat, though the price will be short. Con Compania (PP8) wanted no part of 1-1/16 miles in his last start but returns to his preferred sprint distance and is well posted outside to sit a perfect pace-stalking trip with speed drawn to his inside. He cut back from a route to a sprint and the versatile running style is a major asset from post 8.
Secondary Choices
Wound Up (PP5) ran credibly in the Mr. Prospector behind Knightsbridge and does not face anything near that caliber today. Irad Ortiz Jr. picks up the mount, which is always a boost, though the D’Angelo barn has been off its normal success early in 2026. Jack’s Promise (PP2) scored an allowance victory over this track and trip on Christmas Eve and makes his first start since. He has a bullet workout from February 8 and is 2-for-3 at Gulfstream. This is his first stakes try, but the Dale Romans barn is going well at the meet.
Longshots
Rolando (PP7) is the 2025 Hutcheson Stakes winner over this course and distance and is 3-for-6 at Gulfstream with no local trifecta misses. He caught a tough field at Tampa in the Pelican Stakes on February 7 and wheels back quickly on 14 days’ rest, which mirrors his Hutcheson win pattern (that victory came on 13 days’ rest). John Velazquez rides. Beeline (PP4) wired the Hutcheson two years ago and is returning to his preferred Gulfstream surface with Tyler Gaffalione aboard for the first time. He is 1-for-7 since but the surface switch could be the spark.
Betting Strategy
Damon’s Mound is the clear top horse but will be heavily favored. The value play is to use him underneath in exactas and trifectas. Exacta part-wheel: 6 over 5, 7, 8, and 8 over 6. Trifecta key: 6 with 2, 5, 7, 8 with 2, 5, 7, 8. In the Pick 4, use 2, 5, 6, 7 in this leg.
Selections
Win: 6 Damon’s Mound
Place: 8 Con Compania
Show: 5 Wound Up
Race 11 — Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards Synthetic, $27,000
Post Time: 5:20 PM ET
A contentious 12-horse field of fillies and mares four and up goes a route on the Tapeta with a $10,000 claiming tag. This is one of the most wide-open races on the card. On the Tapeta in routes, posts 4-6 have been winning 43% of the time.
Pace Analysis
This race features plenty of early pace types, and if they all engage, it could set up beautifully for closers. Compass Rises (PP1), Musical Journey (PP6), and Midnight Bella (PP9) all show early foot in their form cycles. The likely contested pace should benefit late runners.
Key Contenders
Mi Triguena (PP8) steps up in class off a conditioned claiming win but exits a career-best Beyer figure and could handle the class hike in her present form. She is capable of running from off the pace, which could serve her well if the early speed types duel. Javier Castellano rides for Armando De La Cerda. U Know When U Know (PP3) also elevates off a career-best performance and shares the same profile as Mi Triguena — a closer who should benefit from the expected pace scenario. Katie Davis rides for Sal Santoro.
Secondary Choices
Compass Rises (PP1) was reclaimed by current connections and did beat this level for Rodriguez two back. She should come running at the end as another closing type. Geaux Amy (PP2) gets Irad Ortiz Jr. for Rohan Crichton, and the rider alone makes her dangerous.
Longshots
More Than Glory (PP4) drew a pick from handicappers at 6-1 and gets the advantageous post 4 for the Tapeta route bias. Don’t Tell Tammo (PP11) sports blinkers and could offer a price for Carlos David.
Betting Strategy
This is a spreader race. Use it broadly in the Pick 4 and keep exotics wide. Trifecta key: 2, 3, 8 over 1, 2, 3, 4, 8 over all.
Selections
Win: 8 Mi Triguena
Place: 3 U Know When U Know
Show: 1 Compass Rises
Race 12 — Maiden Special Weight, 7 1/2 Furlongs Turf, $84,000
Post Time: 5:50 PM ET
The card closer mirrors Race 1 with 12 three-year-old fillies going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. This is the Best Bet race for at least one prominent handicapper, centering on a filly making her second start off a troubled debut.
Pace Analysis
The turf route closer bias again applies: 51-52% win rate for closers, 14% for early speed. Expect moderate early fractions with several horses wanting to stalk. This sets up for strong late runners.
Key Contenders
Celebrity Warrior (PP8) is an Irish-bred making her second start for Todd Pletcher after stumbling badly at the break and getting fanned extremely wide in her debut. She was second best to Ultimate Love in the Selima, and that rival subsequently finished fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. With a clean start on her preferred surface, she should be a much different horse. Rajiv Maragh rides. Conciliation (PP9) is a first-time starter from the Bill Mott barn who appears to be working forwardly on the dirt in preparation for her career debut. She is a new face to the category and could be dangerous from a powerful barn.
Secondary Choices
She Reigns (PP2) represents trainer Mark Casse with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, a lethal turf combination. Vekoma View (PP4) is well-bred for the turf as a relative of Grade 1-placed Cliffs and ran a strange but promising race over wet Tapeta at first asking. Let’s Go Barbie (PP5) gets John Velazquez for Riley Mott and could rally late.
Longshots
Dreaming of Joy (PP3) is a half-sister to Malathaat ($3.7 million earner), but all of Malathaat’s success came on dirt. The fact that this one debuts on grass from the Brad Cox barn is perhaps a slight red flag at what figures to be a short price. Use Me (PP1) is a Walsh-trained Irish import with Gaffalione aboard and could offer value at a bigger number.
Betting Strategy
Celebrity Warrior is the Best Bet of the card and the consensus anchor for the final leg of the Pick 4. Win bet warranted. Exacta part-wheel: 8 over 2, 4, 9. In the Pick 4, use 4, 5, 8 for this leg.
Selections
Win: 8 Celebrity Warrior
Place: 9 Conciliation
Show: 4 Vekoma View
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz Jr. has six mounts today (Races 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10) and is the meet’s leading rider. He won once on Friday’s card and remains the most dangerous jockey on the grounds. His key mounts include Three to G (Race 1), Gallant Knight (Race 3), Little Gussie (Race 5), Wound Up (Race 10), and Maggie Go (Race 9). When Ortiz rides for high-percentage barns, his strike rate is elite.
Tyler Gaffalione rides in seven races and is the meet’s second-leading rider. He was held to one win Friday but remains a consistent threat. His best mounts are Affluenza (Race 2), Fancy Gentleman (Race 8), Cuddle the Kitten (Race 5), and Beeline (Race 10). The Gaffalione-Gargan combination in Race 8 is particularly potent.
John Velazquez has mounts in Races 1, 6, 9, and 10. The Hall of Famer is most dangerous when paired with Pletcher, as he is on Copacabana (Race 1), Timeless Wonder (Race 6), and Rolando (Race 10).
Javier Castellano carries live mounts in Races 1, 8, 11, and 12. His pick rides on Jokette (Race 1), Gregarious (Race 8), and Mi Triguena (Race 11) all deserve respect.
Katie Davis continues to impress since arriving from New York and has two mounts today: Lodato (Race 4), off a winning effort, and Starship Elation (Race 9). She has caught the eye of multiple trainers with her competitive riding.
Edgard Zayas scored a hat trick on Friday’s card and rides in Races 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 11. He is a strong value rider at Gulfstream who often provides fair prices.
Junior Alvarado has the all-important call on Damon’s Mound (Race 10) and also rides Conciliation (Race 12) and Mystic Sea (Race 9). He knows Damon’s Mound as well as anyone and has guided the sprinter to his last two victories.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Bill Mott (Hall of Fame) is the featured trainer on this card with a remarkable 4-for-8 record in stakes races this Championship Meet. He sends out Damon’s Mound (Race 10) as the feature favorite and also has Wind Flower (Race 6), Mystic Sea (Race 9), and Conciliation (Race 12). His runners always need respect, and when they are favored, they deliver at a high rate.
Todd Pletcher (Hall of Fame) has entries in Race 1 (Copacabana), Race 6 (Timeless Wonder), Race 8 (Infinite Light and Overview), and Race 12 (Celebrity Warrior). Celebrity Warrior is his most significant runner on the card and the day’s Best Bet for one prominent handicapper. Second-starters from the Pletcher barn historically improve, making Copacabana a live runner in Race 1.
Danny Gargan has two of the day’s most prominently favored runners: Three to G (Race 1) at 2-1 and Fancy Gentleman (Race 8) at 7-5. He was absent as a listed trainer for Three to G’s debut (his substitute trained), so this is effectively the first start under his personal supervision for that filly.
Saffie Joseph Jr. saddles Nasti Z (Race 2) and Jimmies Big Day (Race 7). The Joseph barn has been productive all meet and first-time starters from this barn demand attention.
Chad Brown trains Maggie Go (Race 9), the turf grass specialist. Brown is the nation’s leading turf trainer, and the Brown-Ortiz pairing on the turf is among the most profitable angles in American racing.
Dale Romans sends out Jack’s Promise (Race 10) and Ivory and Ebony (Race 6). His barn has been performing well at the meet and these two offer live value at fair morning line prices.
Brendan Walsh trains both Jokette (Race 1) and Lady of Lords (Race 1), giving him two chances in the opener, as well as Use Me (Race 12).
Victor Barboza Jr. has multiple entrants and is the trainer of both Grand Joker (Race 4) and Ajaayb (Race 10).
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The day’s strongest win plays, ranked by confidence:
- Celebrity Warrior (PP8, Race 12) — The Best Bet of the card at 3-1 morning line. She has graded stakes form, is returning to her preferred surface, and gets a mulligan for a troubled debut. At a fair price, this is the strongest play on the card.
- Fancy Gentleman (PP5, Race 8) — At 7-5 morning line, he exited a strong second behind a classy debut winner and has the connections to finish the job this time.
- Damon’s Mound (PP6, Race 10) — The class of the sprint field but likely to be around even money. The value is in using him as an anchor in multi-race wagers rather than a straight win bet.
- Lodato (PP3, Race 4) — Strong consensus pick at a reasonable 9-5 morning line, coming off a winning effort.
The late Pick 4 (Races 9-12) is the day’s marquee exotic wager. A suggested ticket:
Race 9: 9, 10, 11 (Pretty Lavish, La Cantera, Maggie Go)
Race 10: 2, 5, 6, 7 (Jack’s Promise, Wound Up, Damon’s Mound, Rolando)
Race 11: 2, 3, 8 (Geaux Amy, U Know When U Know, Mi Triguena)
Race 12: 4, 5, 8 (Vekoma View, Let’s Go Barbie, Celebrity Warrior)
This is a $0.50 Pick 4 that costs $54 and covers the key contenders while allowing for a possible mid-price surprise in Races 10 and 11.
For the early Daily Double (Races 1-2), a cost-effective ticket is: 3, 7 with 3, 8, costing $20 at $5 per combination. This pairs the two strongest Race 1 contenders with the two best in Race 2.
Value singles to consider for multi-race wagers: Gallant Knight in Race 3 (getting Ortiz against a vulnerable favorite), Jimmies Big Day in Race 7 (outside draw, right distance, top barn), and Celebrity Warrior in Race 12 (class and surface advantage).
The Tapeta races (4, 5, 11) tend to produce volatile results and are best treated as spread races in multi-leg wagers rather than singling spots. Keep tickets wide in those legs to protect Pick 4 and Pick 5 investments.
