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Gulfstream Park presents a 10-race card on Thursday, February 26, 2026, with first post at 12:20 PM ET. The card features a diverse mix of surfaces and conditions: three races on the Tapeta synthetic (Races 1, 3, 7), three on turf (Races 2, 5, 10), three on dirt (Races 4, 6, 9), and one on turf with a Tapeta backup (Race 8). Class levels range from rock-bottom $8,000 claimers to an $84,000 Maiden Special Weight on turf, which anchors the late card.
The scratch watch is active today. Hope Diamond (4) in Race 1 is flagged for a veterinarian scratch. Max (3) in Race 2 carries a trainer scratch. Slender Slipper (4) in Race 3 is on the vet list. Mas Que Nada (1) in Race 4 has a gate issue. Win Runner (3) in Race 4 and Hall Monitor (2) in Race 5 were re-entered. Commendatore (5) in Race 6 is flagged for a veterinarian scratch. Race 8 has several also-eligible runners including Amended Dreamer (4), Brown Diamond (1), Josie Joe (2), Mia Familia (8), and Mo’s Little Darlin (6), the last of whom also appeared on a previous vet list. Bettors should check final entries before wagering.
The Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) headlines Saturday’s card at Gulfstream, two days from now, and the presence of top connections on Thursday’s undercard suggests some barns may be conserving their best stock for the weekend.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Hallandale Beach calls for a high of 79 degrees and a low of 60 degrees with broken clouds and minimal precipitation risk (approximately 5%). East winds should remain light in the 5-10 mph range. These are near-ideal racing conditions for South Florida in late February, and there is no expectation of any off-track designation on any surface.
The dirt main track should be listed as fast. The turf course, protected by the rail set at 66 feet for the afternoon’s turf routes, should offer firm footing. The Tapeta synthetic surface, which drains well and is largely unaffected by light weather events, should also be rated fast.
With no rain in the picture, turf races are expected to remain on the grass, meaning the Tapeta backup will not be activated for Races 2, 5, 8, or 10.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Understanding current Gulfstream biases is critical to handicapping today’s card. Recent data paints a clear picture of surface-specific tendencies that should be factored into every selection.
On the dirt in sprints, stalkers have been the dominant running style at a 43% win rate, and posts 4-6 have been winning 41% of races on the current meet. Early speed is not helpless but has surrendered the overall edge to horses who settle just off the pace and make a move on the turn.
In dirt routes, early speed wins at a 42% clip and inside runners (posts 1-3) win at 50%, though posts 4-6 remain competitive at 40%. The small field sizes in routes have narrowed the inside advantage somewhat.
Turf routes present the strongest bias on the entire card. Closers are winning at a dominant 52% rate, while early speed wins only 14% of turf routes. This trend has persisted for months and intensified recently, going 9-for-13 and 5-for-9 in the two most recent weeks studied. Post positions play fairly on the turf, so the focus should be on running style rather than post draw.
Turf sprints (5 furlongs) are the polar opposite of turf routes. Front-running speed dominates, and closers have significant difficulty. A “speed of the speed” approach is essential in these races.
The Tapeta is the most equitable surface at Gulfstream. Various running styles can succeed, though mid-pack draws (posts 4-6) have been particularly productive in routes, winning 43% of the time. In Tapeta sprints, 92% of winners have been within striking distance of the lead, meaning horses who are forwardly placed or stalking have the edge.
Race 1 — Maiden Claiming $12,500, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Tapeta (Synthetic)
Post Time: 12:20 PM ET
A field of nine maiden fillies and mares, four years old and upward, will contest this opening race on the synthetic surface. If Hope Diamond (4) scratches as expected per the vet list, the field drops to eight. The morning line has Hope Diamond at 2-1 and It’s Just a Game (8) at 5/2, but with a likely scratch the dynamics shift considerably.
Pace Analysis
This is a two-turn route on the Tapeta, where mid-pack runners and stalkers thrive. List (1), Spirit of Jamaica (6), and Starlight Luna (5) could show some early interest, but this group lacks a dominant front-runner. The pace should be moderate, favoring horses who can sit in a comfortable stalking position and kick on through the final furlong.
Key Contenders
List (1) had a useful debut in a sprint and should benefit from the stretch-out to two turns on the Tapeta. With the rail draw, which has been productive on synthetic routes, and Renzo Rojas aboard, this filly can save ground and pounce late. Handicappers have flagged this one as a top play in the opener.
It’s Just a Game (8) is 0-for-11 lifetime but has managed third-place finishes four times. Jorge Ruiz rides, and while the consistency factor is questionable, the placement record suggests she belongs in the exotics.
Starlight Luna (5) could pose a late threat from the mid-pack under Jose Morelos. At 6-1 on the morning line, she offers some value if she can sit a good trip behind a moderate pace.
Secondary Choices
Vino for the Queen (2) topped one algorithmic model at 12-1 morning line odds, representing a significant overlay if that price holds at post time. Rajiv Maragh rides for Nicholas Palmer, and this five-year-old mare with blinkers could show improvement.
Dream Diamond (9) at 20-1 drew outside but Katie Davis has been riding at a 44% show rate at the current meet, which suggests placement upside if nothing else.
Longshots
Spirit of Jamaica (6) at 20-1 is intriguing for Edgar Perez. Devilsgoldenfiddle (7) at 30-1 gets the apprentice Carlos Martinez and 5 pounds off, which could matter in a weak field.
Selections
Win: List (1)
Place: Starlight Luna (5)
Show: It’s Just a Game (8)
Betting strategy: List (1) to win and place. Exacta box 1-5-8. Include Vino for the Queen (2) in trifecta and superfecta spread.
Race 2 — Maiden Optional Claiming $50,000, 1 Mile, Turf
Post Time: 12:50 PM ET
Eight three-year-old fillies line up for this maiden turf mile. Note that Max (3) is flagged for a trainer scratch, which could reduce the field to seven. The turf course’s strong closer bias at a 52% win rate in routes is the single most important handicapping angle in this race.
Pace Analysis
Resort (6) showed a stalking style in her prior starts and could be forwardly placed early. Too Loose La Trek (1) has also shown forward tendencies. Mo Java (4), the debut runner, is an unknown. The pace looks moderate, but the turf closer bias means horses who can finish strongly from off the pace have a statistical edge over early runners.
Key Contenders
Resort (6) is the morning line favorite at 2-1 for Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. This French-bred filly has made three starts showing an improving profile, most recently finishing fourth going 1-1/16 miles on this turf course. Pletcher historically wins at a 20% rate on turf at Gulfstream, and Ortiz (28% win rate this meet) is the dominant rider. However, Resort has yet to hit the board in three tries, and the stalking style may leave her vulnerable to closers on this turf course.
Role Play (8) is listed at 5/2 for Kevin Attard with Mario Gutierrez riding. This filly was second going 1-1/16 miles on this turf course in her most recent outing and has a 50% show rate in two career starts. Gutierrez has been riding at a 28% win rate at the current meet, which is a strong number. Role Play’s closing style fits the turf route bias perfectly.
Secondary Choices
Souper Landslide (7) makes her second start for Mark Casse with John Velazquez up. First-time-out she finished sixth in a dirt mile, and the switch to turf could bring significant improvement. Casse wins at a 24% clip in the current meet and is one of the top three trainers at Gulfstream.
People Pleaser (5) is a first-time starter for Anthony Dutrow with Javier Castellano riding. Castellano’s 17% win rate and 43% in-the-money rate at the meet give any mount some credibility. Dutrow runners making debuts deserve respect.
Longshots
Sister Slew (2) at 8-1 showed a fast closing style and finished third in her second career start. Patrick Biancone trains at a 30% win rate with David Egan riding at 15% wins this meet.
Too Loose La Trek (1) at 9/2 for Michael Trombetta with Edwin Gonzalez is interesting. Gonzalez’s 18% win rate on turf routes gives this one a puncher’s chance.
Selections
Win: Role Play (8)
Place: Resort (6)
Show: Souper Landslide (7)
Betting strategy: Role Play (8) on top in exactas flowing to Resort (6) and Souper Landslide (7). Use People Pleaser (5) and Sister Slew (2) in trifectas and superfectas underneath.
Race 3 — Claiming $8,000, 5 Furlongs, Tapeta (Synthetic)
Post Time: 1:20 PM ET
Seven fillies and mares contest this bottom-level sprint on the Tapeta, though the field may shrink to six if Slender Slipper (4) is scratched per the vet list. On Tapeta sprints, 92% of winners have come from within striking distance of the lead.
Pace Analysis
Beautiful Crazy (1) is the morning line favorite at 6/5 with Irad Ortiz Jr. and profiles as the fastest early runner — labeled a “Fastest Leader” in pace analysis. Maerdama (7) also shows early speed, described as a “Fast Leads” type. These two should establish the pace, with Beautiful Crazy likely controlling from the inside.
Key Contenders
Beautiful Crazy (1) takes a big class drop and appears clearly best in this field. Her recent form shows two fourth-place finishes in better company, and one win from six starts at the 5-furlong distance. With Ortiz aboard and a significant class edge, she is the deserving favorite. Handicappers across multiple outlets have her as the top selection.
Maerdama (7) at 5/2 is a 10-start veteran with a 20% win rate and 60% show rate. She won recently at the 6-furlong distance and should press the pace. Martin Chuan rides for Blake Kelly, who shows a 100% show rate in limited starts at the meet.
Secondary Choices
Stubold (2) at 3-1 has a 60% show rate in 20 career starts and profiles as a mid-pack stalker. Junior Alvarado aboard for Ronald Coy makes this a natural exotic play.
Longshots
Windrush (3) at 10-1 is described as a “Fast Deep” runner. At a distance where forwardly placed runners dominate on the Tapeta, a deep closer faces headwinds.
Ellagio (6) at 10-1 is a mid-pack stalker with Jonathan Ocasio, who shows a 33% win rate in limited recent starts.
Selections
Win: Beautiful Crazy (1)
Place: Maerdama (7)
Show: Stubold (2)
Betting strategy: Beautiful Crazy (1) to win and place. Exacta box 1-2-7. If the price is right, single Beautiful Crazy on top in trifectas flowing to Maerdama (7), Stubold (2), and Ellagio (6).
Race 4 — Maiden Claiming $35,000, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt
Post Time: 1:50 PM ET
Seven three-year-old colts and geldings make up this maiden dirt sprint. Note that Mas Que Nada (1) is on scratch watch for a gate issue, and Win Runner (3) was re-entered. On the dirt in sprints, stalkers have been dominant at a 43% win rate and posts 4-6 have been winning 41% of races.
Pace Analysis
Never Count Me Out (4) made one start going 6.5 furlongs and could show early foot. Win Runner (3) is a fast stalker type. Valen Time (7) also profiles as a fast stalker. There should be enough early speed to create a fair pace, though first-time starters Mas Que Nana (1), Mr. Aventus (2), and Mentor (6) are unknowns in terms of running style.
Key Contenders
Never Count Me Out (4) is the morning line favorite at 9/5 for Jorge Delgado with David Egan riding. Delgado trains at a 29% win rate and Egan hit the board 100% of the time in their sole collaboration at the meet. The colt drew post 4, right in the sweet spot for dirt sprints. With only one start under his belt (fifth of nine going 6.5 furlongs), there is ample room for improvement cutting back in distance.
Win Runner (3) at 7/2 gets Javier Castellano, who has been riding at a 43% win rate in limited recent starts. Trained by Armando De La Cerda, this colt has three starts but no wins. His fast stalker style fits the current dirt sprint bias.
Secondary Choices
Mentor (6) at 6-1 is a first-time starter for Kelly Breen with Edwin Gonzalez. Breen’s 25% win rate and 58% ITM rate at the meet suggest he brings his horses ready. Multiple algorithmic models have Mentor ranked first.
Valen Time (7) at 9/2 gets the 5-pound apprentice Yolber Torres and has four starts of experience with one show. His fast stalker profile suits the bias, and the weight break is meaningful at this level.
Longshots
Mr. Aventus (2) at 8-1 is a first-time starter for Manny Real with Jose Morelos. Limited information makes this one a speculative play.
Cajun Lad (5) at 12-1 showed almost nothing in a debut (10th of 11) but gets Renzo Rojas for Michael Yates, who wins at a 25% clip.
Selections
Win: Never Count Me Out (4)
Place: Mentor (6)
Show: Win Runner (3)
Betting strategy: Never Count Me Out (4) to win. Exacta: 4 with 3-6-7. Trifecta key: 4 over 3-6-7 over 1-2-3-5-6-7.
Race 5 — Starter Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles, Turf
Post Time: 2:20 PM ET
A full field of 11 (pending potential scratches) contests this turf route for four-year-olds and upward. Hall Monitor (2) was re-entered and may or may not draw in. The turf closer bias is the dominant factor: closers win 52% of turf routes at Gulfstream this meet.
Pace Analysis
Replevin (9) has speed and could be the one to fear on the front end, but with closers dominating at 52% in turf routes, the speed may be compromised. The Brigade (1) will benefit from a rail trip if he can sit just off the pace. The pace scenario could set up well for deep closers, particularly in a large field where traffic is more likely up front.
Key Contenders
Two Beers by Ten (4) was second in a photo finish in each of his last two starts. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Mike Maker. Gaffalione is second in the jockey standings with 49 wins, and Maker is a veteran Gulfstream trainer. This horse seems overdue for a victory and his stalking style from the middle of the pack fits the turf bias perfectly. He draws post 4, which is productive in routes.
War Officer (11) at 6-1 runs for Saffie Joseph Jr. with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. Joseph is the leading trainer at Gulfstream with 14 consecutive meet titles, and Ortiz is the leading jockey at 28% wins. This is the most powerful trainer-jockey combination on the grounds. The wide draw in post 11 is a concern on turf, but Ortiz excels at getting horses into position from difficult draws.
Secondary Choices
Replevin (9) at 10-1 has speed and David Egan riding for Laura Cazares. Handicappers note he is the one to fear on the front end. If the pace collapses or the field allows him to coast along unchallenged, he could wire them.
The Brigade (1) at 9/2 draws the rail for Mark Casse. Casse ranks third in the trainer standings, and the inside draw helps in a large turf field. The Brigade will be helped by a rail-saving trip.
Palace View (3) at 8-1 gets Javier Castellano and has the seasoned six-year-old profile that could thrive from off the pace in a large turf route field.
Longshots
Cognoscenti (6) at 8-1 and Fly Erik Fly (5) at 20-1 offer value for bettors looking to spread in exotics.
Selections
Win: Two Beers by Ten (4)
Place: War Officer (11)
Show: The Brigade (1)
Betting strategy: Two Beers by Ten (4) to win and place. Exacta box 4-9-11. Include The Brigade (1) and Replevin (9) in trifectas. This race is wide open and should be spread in exotics.
Race 6 — Maiden Claiming $35,000, 6 Furlongs, Dirt
Post Time: 2:50 PM ET
Six four-year-old and upward maidens sprint 6 furlongs on the dirt. Note that Commendatore (5) is on scratch watch for a vet issue, potentially reducing the field to five. The dirt sprint bias favoring stalkers (43%) and mid-range posts (4-6) applies here.
Pace Analysis
With a small field, speed could survive more easily. Step Slow (4) showed enough run last out to suggest he could press or stalk the pace. Skyrush (6) is more of a stalker type. Holy Dancer (3) and Brick City (1) could factor as pace pressers. A moderate pace seems likely, setting up for whoever can kick on from a forward position turning for home.
Key Contenders
Skyrush (6) is the morning line favorite at 2-1 for Danny Gargan with Joel Rosario aboard. Rosario is a world-class rider, and Gargan has been effective at Gulfstream. This four-year-old gelding should appreciate the small field and could sit a perfect stalking trip from the outside.
Step Slow (4) at 5/2 was second the last time he raced at this level, suggesting he is well-placed in terms of class. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Fernando Abreu. The post 4 draw is in the prime zone for dirt sprints, and Gaffalione’s 15% win rate across the meet understates his talent on this type of runner.
Secondary Choices
Redhotnotbothered (2) at 9/2 gets Mario Gutierrez, who has been riding at a 28% win rate. Michael Lerman trains. The inside draw could be an asset in a small field.
Holy Dancer (3) at 6-1 makes his debut for Nicholas Zito with Katie Davis. Zito is a Hall of Fame trainer, and any first-timer from this barn in a maiden claimer deserves attention, though Davis’s limited recent win rate tempers enthusiasm.
Longshots
Brick City (1) at 8-1 gets the 5-pound apprentice Yolber Torres from post 1. One algorithmic model ranked Brick City first, and the weight allowance in a small field could be the difference in a blanket finish.
Selections
Win: Skyrush (6)
Place: Step Slow (4)
Show: Redhotnotbothered (2)
Betting strategy: Step Slow (4) offers better value than the favored Skyrush (6). Consider Step Slow to win and place. Exacta box 4-6. Trifecta key 4-6 over 4-6 over 1-2-3.
Race 7 — Starter Optional Claiming $20,000, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Tapeta (Synthetic)
Post Time: 3:20 PM ET
Seven fillies and mares, four and up, go in this two-turn Tapeta route. Ashima (3) towers over this field at 3/5 on the morning line. On Tapeta routes, mid-pack draws (posts 4-6) have been productive at a 43% win rate, but the overwhelming class advantage here may override bias considerations.
Pace Analysis
Galley Head (5) and Heaven’s Promise (1) could flash some early foot, but this pace scenario revolves around Ashima (3), who should sit comfortably behind the speed and unleash a late run under Irad Ortiz Jr. Puckered (4) and Show Off (2) are stalker types who could factor in the exotics.
Key Contenders
Ashima (3) is the overwhelming favorite at 3/5 for Sal Santoro with Irad Ortiz Jr. The 28% meet-leading jockey on a 3/5 favorite makes this the most reliable play on the card. Ashima has been running in better company and drops into this field with a significant class edge.
Secondary Choices
Show Off (2) at 7/2 has Joe Bravo up for Fausto Gutierrez. Bravo is a savvy veteran rider who excels at saving ground in two-turn races. If Ashima has an off day, Show Off is the most logical alternative.
Galley Head (5) at 9/2 is an interesting second choice at a mid-range post. Miguel Angel Vasquez rides for Beau Chapman. Vasquez’s 13% win rate this meet is modest, but the post 5 draw suits the Tapeta route bias.
Longshots
I Love Venezuela (6) at 10-1 for Ronald Coy with Edwin Gonzalez could provide a mild upset at this class level. Puckered (4) at 20-1 and Storm West (7) at 20-1 are the deepest longshots.
Selections
Win: Ashima (3)
Place: Show Off (2)
Show: Galley Head (5)
Betting strategy: Ashima (3) is a logical single in multi-race wagers. Win price will be low, so focus on using Ashima underneath in exactas with Show Off (2) and Galley Head (5) on top for bigger prices. Exacta: 2-5 over 3.
Race 8 — Maiden Special Weight $84,000, 1 Mile, Turf
Post Time: 3:50 PM ET
Ten three-year-old fillies go in this high-class maiden turf mile, the feature race on the card. Several runners are listed as also-eligible, so the field could be dynamic. The turf closer bias (52% win rate for closers in routes) is paramount here.
Pace Analysis
Mo’s Little Darlin (6) and Mia Familia (8) could show some early speed, but the deep closer bias on turf routes means the pace setters are vulnerable. Expect a moderate to honest pace with late runners having every opportunity to sweep past tired speed in the stretch.
Key Contenders
East Jabip (9) at 7/2 runs for Brian Lynch with Irad Ortiz Jr. Lynch has been one of the most effective turf trainers at Gulfstream, winning at 29% on dirt and 21% on turf in the prior championship meet. Ortiz’s dominance at 28% wins this meet adds an enormous edge. This Irish-bred filly should be suited by the turf and the distance.
Paradise Street (10) at 5-1 is also trained by Brian Lynch, creating an interesting dynamic with stablemate East Jabip. Joel Rosario rides, and Lynch’s willingness to run two in the same race suggests both are live. The outside post is not a significant disadvantage on the turf course where posts play fairly.
Munnings Talks (3) at 4-1 for Brendan Walsh with Tyler Gaffalione is a prominent contender. Walsh is a consistent turf trainer, and Gaffalione’s 49 wins (second in the standings) command respect in any field.
Secondary Choices
Mia Familia (8) at 9/2 for Jose D’Angelo with Edgard Zayas. D’Angelo was the second-leading trainer at the prior championship meet with 40 wins, and he has had strong momentum entering this winter.
Josie Joe (2) at 6-1 for Riley Mott with Junior Alvarado is intriguing if she draws in. Alvarado has 27 wins this meet at a 17% strike rate.
Longshots
Amended Dreamer (4) at 8-1 was also-eligible and may or may not draw in. Brown Diamond (1) at 10-1 is a first-time starter for Armando De La Cerda with David Egan, whose 15% win rate merits respect.
Bullet Journal (7) at 15-1 for Riley Mott with Jorge Ruiz could close from far back at a big price, fitting the closer profile.
Selections
Win: East Jabip (9)
Place: Munnings Talks (3)
Show: Paradise Street (10)
Betting strategy: This is a spread race. Use East Jabip (9) and Munnings Talks (3) on top in exactas. Spread wide in trifectas: 3-9-10 over 2-3-8-9-10 over all.
Race 9 — Allowance $54,000, 6 Furlongs, Dirt (Florida-Bred Fillies)
Post Time: 4:21 PM ET
Seven Florida-bred three-year-old fillies contest this allowance sprint on the main dirt track. This is a competitive field with five runners at single-digit morning line odds. The dirt sprint bias toward stalkers (43%) and posts 4-6 (41%) is in full effect.
Pace Analysis
Sweet Ember (2) is labeled a “Fastest Leads” type who won her last start leading from the front at 5 furlongs. Jestina (4) also profiles as a “Fast Leads” runner. Drama (7) is described as a “Slowest Leader,” meaning she likes the front but may not be quick enough to contest the early pace. With two or three wanting the lead, the pace could be honest, setting up for stalkers and closers.
Key Contenders
Drama (7) was an easy winner in her last start on dirt, and handicappers have elevated her to top contender status for this race. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Saffie Joseph Jr., the dominant trainer at Gulfstream with 14 consecutive meet titles. Joseph’s 33% win rate and 69% ITM rate at the meet are simply overpowering. Drama’s last dirt win was visually impressive, and the step forward from that effort makes her dangerous here.
Sweet Ember (2) is the morning line favorite at 2-1 for Ed Plesa Jr. with Jose Morelos aboard. She was a sharp winner on the Tapeta last out and has nice dirt breeding. Her 50% win rate and 100% show rate in two starts make her the most consistent horse in the field. The stalker-bias on dirt sprints may work against her front-running style, but she is talented enough to overcome it.
Secondary Choices
Muffin Music (1) at 5/2 should welcome a switch to dirt for Wesley Ward with John Velazquez riding. Ward’s 48% win rate at the current meet is extraordinary, and Velazquez at 18% wins adds firepower. Muffin Music won at Keeneland on dirt and has been fourth on this turf course. The surface switch is the key angle.
Jestina (4) at 5-1 for Saffie Joseph Jr. with Micah Husbands cannot be ignored. Joseph sending two to the post (with Drama) in the same race indicates he believes both are live. Husbands has been riding at a 29% win rate and 54% ITM. Jestina drew the advantageous post 4.
Longshots
Samaritan’s Joy (6) at 6-1 has two wins from three starts, a 67% win rate. Javier Castellano rides for Gary Subratie. This one could be sitting on a breakout effort at a price.
Duchess Eleanor (5) at 20-1 ships from Tampa Bay where she was a winner going 6 furlongs.
Selections
Win: Drama (7)
Place: Sweet Ember (2)
Show: Muffin Music (1)
Betting strategy: Drama (7) to win and place. Exacta box 1-2-7. Include Jestina (4) and Samaritan’s Joy (6) in trifectas for value.
Race 10 — Starter Optional Claiming $35,000, 5 Furlongs, Turf
Post Time: 4:51 PM ET
Nine three-year-old fillies close out the card in a turf sprint. The turf sprint bias strongly favors early speed and front-runners. Closers have significant difficulty in 5-furlong turf sprints at Gulfstream, making pace analysis the most critical factor.
Pace Analysis
Chucky’s Ride (4), Kate the Smate (5), and Viable Asset (1) could all show early speed. With multiple speed types engaged, the pace could be honest, but in turf sprints, even a contested pace often resolves in favor of whoever can clear early and hold on. The rail at 66 feet benefits horses on the inside.
Key Contenders
Chucky’s Ride (4) at 7/2 runs for Mark Casse with Edgard Zayas. Casse’s 24% win rate at the meet and the post 4 draw (inside enough to save ground, outside enough to avoid traffic) make this a prime play in a turf sprint.
Kate the Smate (5) at 4-1 gets Miguel Angel Vasquez for Bobby Dibona. Handicappers from multiple outlets have flagged this filly. Vasquez has 28 wins this meet, and the mid-draw suits in a 9-horse turf sprint.
Divinely Inspired (6) at 6-1 for Mark Casse with Irad Ortiz Jr. is the horse with the highest ceiling. Ortiz and Casse is a powerful combination, and algorithmic models rank Divinely Inspired first. If she shows tactical speed, she is a win threat at a price.
Secondary Choices
Viable Asset (1) at 6-1 draws the rail with Joel Rosario for Fernando Abreu. On the turf sprint where speed and inside posts matter most, the rail draw is a significant asset. Rosario can establish position early and dare the field to catch him.
Fermi (7) at 5-1 gets Jose Morelos for Kent Sweezey. The outside draw is a disadvantage in a turf sprint, but Fermi ranked high in one model.
Longshots
Rogue Runner (8) at 8-1 for Gary Jackson with David Egan and Practically Famous (9) at 12-1 are the value plays for exotics.
Gigi Cake’s (2) at 12-1 with Luca Panici for Melanie Giddings offers price but limited form.
Selections
Win: Chucky’s Ride (4)
Place: Divinely Inspired (6)
Show: Kate the Smate (5)
Betting strategy: Chucky’s Ride (4) and Divinely Inspired (6) on top in exactas. Trifecta key: 4-6 over 1-4-5-6-7 over all. Look for value in Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequences ending with this race.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz Jr. has six mounts today (Races 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10) and leads the meet with 71 wins from 257 starts at a 28% win rate and 58% ITM. He is the five-time Gulfstream champion jockey and rides with supreme confidence on this circuit. His best opportunities today appear to be Ashima (3) in Race 7 (3/5 favorite), Beautiful Crazy (1) in Race 3 (6/5 favorite), and East Jabip (9) in Race 8 (7/2). Ortiz commands respect in every mount.
Tyler Gaffalione ranks second on the jockey standings with 49 wins from 320 starts at 15% wins and 48% ITM. He rides Hope Diamond (4) in Race 1 (likely scratch), Two Beers by Ten (4) in Race 5, Step Slow (4) in Race 6, Munnings Talks (3) in Race 8, Drama (7) in Race 9, and Practically Famous (9) in Race 10. His mounts with best chances include Drama (7) in Race 9 and Two Beers by Ten (4) in Race 5.
Javier Castellano has 33 wins from 207 starts at 16% wins and 43% ITM. He rides Win Runner (3) in Race 4, People Pleaser (5) in Race 2, Palace View (3) in Race 5, and Samaritan’s Joy (6) in Race 9. Castellano’s 43% win rate in limited recent dirt sprint starts is noteworthy for Win Runner.
John Velazquez rides Souper Landslide (7) in Race 2 and Muffin Music (1) in Race 9. At 18% wins from 147 starts, the Hall of Famer remains dangerous, especially with the Wesley Ward-trained Muffin Music.
Joel Rosario has limited but impactful mounts: Skyrush (6) in Race 6 and Viable Asset (1) in Race 10. As a world-class jockey, Rosario’s selections often indicate trainer confidence.
David Egan continues an impressive meet at 26 wins and 15% wins from 175 starts. He rides Never Count Me Out (4) in Race 4, Sister Slew (2) in Race 2, and Rogue Runner (8) in Race 10.
Edgard Zayas has 37 wins from 253 starts (15%) and rides Winplaceandshow (3) in Race 9, The Brigade (1) in Race 5, Storm West (7) in Race 7, Chucky’s Ride (4) in Race 10, and Mia Familia (8) in Race 8.
Yolber Torres carries a 5-pound apprentice allowance that makes his mounts dangerous, especially Jessica’s Dream (3) in Race 1 (carrying 118 lbs), Max (3) in Race 2 (117 lbs), Valen Time (7) in Race 4 (117 lbs), and Fly Erik Fly (5) in Race 5 (118 lbs). His 12% win rate at the meet is modest, but the weight break can be decisive at lower claiming levels.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Saffie Joseph Jr. is the undisputed king of Gulfstream Park, having won 14 consecutive training titles at the track. His current meet numbers show a 33% win rate and 69% ITM. He saddles Genuine Gomo (7) and War Officer (11) in Race 5, and Jestina (4) and Drama (7) in Race 9. When Joseph doubles up in a race, both runners deserve serious consideration. Drama (7) in Race 9 appears to be his strongest play of the day.
Todd Pletcher historically dominates the championship meet with 31 wins at 17% last year. He sends out Resort (6) in Race 2, his lone entrant today, with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. Pletcher’s turf runners at Gulfstream historically win at 20%, making Resort a must-use even if she has yet to hit the board in three starts.
Mark Casse finished third in last year’s training standings with 34 wins (13%). He enters Souper Landslide (7) in Race 2, The Brigade (1) in Race 5, and Chucky’s Ride (4) and Divinely Inspired (6) in Race 10. His 24% win rate at the current meet makes every Casse runner dangerous, and the two-horse entry in Race 10 gives bettors multiple shots.
Jose D’Angelo was the runner-up trainer last year with 40 wins and has Breeders’ Cup momentum entering this winter. He trains Hope Diamond (4) in Race 1 (likely scratch), Beautiful Crazy (1) in Race 3, Step Slow (4) in Race 6, and Mia Familia (8) in Race 8.
Wesley Ward sends out Muffin Music (1) in Race 9 with an extraordinary 48% win rate at the current meet. Ward is known for having his runners ready and fit, and the dirt switch for Muffin Music is a key angle.
Brian Lynch trains both East Jabip (9) and Paradise Street (10) in Race 8. Lynch historically wins at 29% on dirt and 21% on turf at Gulfstream and earned 22 wins at the prior championship meet. Two entries in the featured maiden special weight signals live runners.
Kelly Breen sends out Mentor (6) in Race 4 with a 25% win rate and 58% ITM at the current meet. First-time starters from Breen deserve respect.
Jorge Delgado trains Never Count Me Out (4) in Race 4 at a 29% win rate and 57% ITM — one of the most efficient barns at the current meeting.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The 10-race card offers several angles for both straight and exotic wagering. The following strategies incorporate the bias data, morning line analysis, and handicapping consensus.
Best Bet of the Day: Drama (7) in Race 9 at 8-1 morning line is the standout play. Saffie Joseph Jr. (33% win rate) and Tyler Gaffalione combine with a filly who won her last dirt start easily. At 8-1 on the morning line, the value is significant relative to her chances. She rates as a strong win play and an anchor for Pick sequences ending in Race 9.
Value Play of the Day: Mentor (6) in Race 4 at 6-1 morning line. Kelly Breen’s 25% win rate and 58% ITM with first-time starters, combined with Edwin Gonzalez’s improving form, make this debut runner a compelling overlay. Multiple models rank Mentor at or near the top of this field despite being a first-time starter.
Spread Race to Key: Race 5 (Starter Allowance, turf) is the most competitive race on the card with 11 entrants and no clear standout. Two Beers by Ten (4) at 7/2 has the narrative of two consecutive second-place photo finishes, but War Officer (11), Replevin (9), and The Brigade (1) are all live. Use this race as a spread leg in any Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequence.
Single Candidates for Multi-Race Wagers: Ashima (3) in Race 7 at 3/5 is the safest single on the card with Ortiz and a massive class edge. Beautiful Crazy (1) in Race 3 at 6/5 is another potential single with the leading jockey and a class drop.
Late Pick 4 (Races 7-10) Strategy: Single Ashima in Race 7. Spread Race 8 using East Jabip (9), Munnings Talks (3), Paradise Street (10), and Mia Familia (8). In Race 9, use Drama (7), Sweet Ember (2), Muffin Music (1), and Jestina (4). In Race 10, use Chucky’s Ride (4), Divinely Inspired (6), and Kate the Smate (5). This creates a manageable ticket with strong coverage.
Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5) Strategy: Use List (1) and Starlight Luna (5) in Race 1. Spread Race 2 with Role Play (8), Resort (6), and Souper Landslide (7). Single Beautiful Crazy (1) in Race 3. Use Never Count Me Out (4) and Mentor (6) in Race 4. Spread Race 5 widely with Two Beers by Ten (4), War Officer (11), Replevin (9), and The Brigade (1).
Exotic Value Angles: Race 6 offers a potential exacta overlay if Step Slow (4) can beat the favored Skyrush (6). A $1 exacta with Step Slow on top of Skyrush should return a decent payout. Race 1, if Hope Diamond scratches, becomes wide open and suitable for boxing the top four selections in exactas and trifectas at inflated prices.
