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The 2025 Keeneland Fall Meet launches today with an exceptional 10-race program headlined by the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes and featuring competitive fields across multiple race types. First post is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET under sunny skies with temperatures reaching the low 90s.
Weather and Track Conditions
The National Weather Service forecasts sunny conditions with a high near 92°F for today at Keeneland. The track should be in excellent condition for the opening day of the Fall Meet, with no precipitation expected and clear skies providing ideal racing weather.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Starter Allowance (1:00 PM)
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Dirt | Purse: $55,000
Key Contenders: Miss Ellary (#2) enters with Tyler Gaffalione aboard for trainer Lauren Robson at 7-2 morning line odds. The filly has experience and should appreciate the distance. Nerazurri (#7) gets a significant jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr. for trainer Angel Quiroz at 5-2 odds.
Secondary Choices: Indy Label (#4) with Luis Saez and Ladan (#5) with Jose Ortiz provide veteran jockey strength in this competitive field.
Longshots: Lady Lala (#1) could surprise at longer odds with capable connections.
Pace Analysis: Expect a moderate pace with several horses capable of pressing early.
Selection: Miss Ellary (#2) offers value with strong connections and proven form.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming (1:32 PM)
Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $55,000
Key Contenders: Perfect Audible (#8) represents the powerful Steven Asmussen barn with son Keith aboard at 5-1 odds. Fame Chaser (#9) brings Wesley Ward’s expertise with Walter Rodriguez riding at 3-1.
Secondary Choices: Alexander K (#6) with Jose Ortiz provides solid backup.
Pace Analysis: Should develop into a fast early pace with several speed types entered.
Selection: Perfect Audible (#8) for the hot Asmussen barn.
Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight Turf (2:04 PM)
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Turf | Purse: $110,000
This maiden special weight event for two-year-old fillies marks the first turf race of the Keeneland Fall Meet and features a competitive field of 14 runners. The race carries preference for horses that have not started for less than $75,000, indicating quality breeding and connections throughout the field.
Key Contenders
Sneakily (#6) – 9/5 Morning Line Favorite
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. | Trainer: Brad Cox
Sneakily enters as the prohibitive favorite after a strong second-place debut effort. The Tapit filly out of Sneaking Out brings exceptional breeding and represents the powerful Brad Cox barn, which dominated last year’s fall meet with a 38% win rate. Cox shows 27% winners from 37 starts during spring 2025 with a particularly strong 32% win rate on the main track. Ortiz Jr. adds significant value, having relocated to Kentucky for the fall season after finishing second at Churchill Downs with 23 wins at 27%. The combination of Cox and Ortiz Jr. represents the meet’s strongest partnership.
Trust Account (#5) – 9/2 Second Choice
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione | Trainer: Brendan Walsh
The Into Mischief filly out of Shared Account ran “a fair race on debut last time out, beaten 5 lengths”. Walsh finished tied for third last fall with eight wins and maintains excellent turf statistics with 20% winners from turf starts during spring 2025. The trainer shows particular strength with turf runners, posting a 20% win rate on grass compared to 32% on dirt. Gaffalione brings defending champion credentials from last year’s fall meet with 24 wins and recently captured the Churchill September title with 26 wins at 25%.
Turner’s Charm (#1) – 8/1
Jockey: Lanfranco Dettori | Trainer: Brendan Walsh
The Not This Time filly debuts for Walsh with Hall of Fame jockey Dettori taking the assignment. Walsh’s 28% win rate during spring 2025 makes him the second-leading trainer by percentage. The combination of Walsh’s turf expertise and Dettori’s class provides strong debut potential for this well-bred filly.
Ginger Ale (#2) – 12/1
Jockey: Flavien Prat | Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset
The Into Mischief filly out of Co Cola brings proven sire power and represents Brisset, who dominated fall 2024 with nine wins from 20 starters for an exceptional 45% strike rate. Prat maintains elite status among North American riders and adds significant value to any mount.
Secondary Contenders
Live Your Dreams (#4) – 6/1
Jockey: Jose Ortiz | Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
The Curlin filly presents solid breeding credentials with Jose Ortiz providing veteran guidance. Ortiz concentrated his efforts at Keeneland this season and posted 17 wins during last fall’s meet.
Atlantic Beach (#10) – 10/1
Jockey: Luis Saez | Trainer: Phillips Catherine Day
The Omaha Beach filly brings contemporary sire power with Saez, who finished second to Gaffalione last fall with 20 wins.
Longshot Considerations
Last Curtain Call (#12) – 12/1
Jockey: Walter Rodriguez | Trainer: Victoria Oliver
The Oscar Performance filly represents value at double-digit odds with proven connections.
Menkaure (#8) – 12/1
Jockey: John Velazquez | Trainer: William Walden
The City Of Light filly gets Hall of Fame rider Velazquez, whose class and experience could unlock improvement.
Pace Analysis
The pace projection suggests an honest to fast early tempo, typical for a field of lightly raced juveniles where many do their best running on the lead early in their careers. Several fillies are stretching out in distance for the first time, which should contribute to solid early fractions. The honest pace should set up well for closers and stalkers, particularly important on Keeneland’s turf course where off-the-pace runners combine for 76% of victories.
Key Angles to Consider
Brad Cox Angle: Cox sends out his first of three short-priced second-time starters on the card. His exceptional statistics and Sneakily’s solid debut effort make her the logical choice despite short odds.
Brendan Walsh Turf Specialty: Walsh’s dual representation with Turner’s Charm and Trust Account highlights his turf expertise. His 20% turf win rate during spring 2025 significantly exceeds expectations.
Debut vs. Experience: The field splits between first-time starters and fillies making second or third career appearances. Second-time starters typically hold advantages in maiden events.
Distance Stretch-Out: Several fillies extend from shorter distances, which could lead to pace pressing early and potential late weakening.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Trust Account (#5) offers the best value among the top contenders at 9/2 odds. Walsh’s turf expertise combined with Gaffalione’s current form provides solid overlay potential.
Place/Show: Sneakily (#6) appears overbet as the heavy favorite but should hit the board. Turner’s Charm (#1) offers debut value with Walsh and Dettori.
Exacta: Key Trust Account over Sneakily in exactas, as the 9/2 shot could upset the favorite. Also consider Turner’s Charm and Ginger Ale as underneath horses.
Trifecta: Build around Trust Account and Sneakily while including Live Your Dreams and Turner’s Charm for third.
Final Selection
Win: Trust Account (#5) – Offers the best combination of value and winning chance with proven turf connections
Place: Sneakily (#6) – Likely overbet but should hit the board for Cox
Show: Turner’s Charm (#1) – Debut special for Walsh with Dettori aboard
The race sets up well for Trust Account to improve off her debut effort under Gaffalione’s patient handling, while the honest pace should allow Walsh’s turf expertise to shine through in this competitive maiden special weight event.
Race 4 – Allowance (2:36 PM)
Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $120,000
This competitive allowance event for two-year-old fillies features horses that have never won two races, carrying preference for entries from higher quality starts. The field of nine brings proven form and strong connections competing for the substantial purse in this sprint event.
Key Contenders
Tiz in Sight (#8) – 5/2 Top Selection
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione | Trainer: Mark Casse
The expert analysis identifies Tiz in Sight as the top selection despite not being the morning line favorite. This filly “ran okay in the Adirondack two back” where she “had a tougher trip than Spa Prospector (#4), who had a sweet rail ride, but came up empty”. She “came with a wide bid and was bumped at the top of the lane, but still finished just ¾ of a length behind Prospector”. The key insight is that “the top two finishers of that race are significantly better than anyone in this group”.
Her most recent effort “tried the turf in the PG Johnson and wasn’t interested in the lawn when running into Todd Pletcher’s, Time to Dream”. The analysis suggests “that effort will give her a stamina boost in a race where I think many will be in chase mode early and often”. Gaffalione recently captured the Churchill September title with 26 wins at 25% and brings defending champion credentials from last year’s fall meet.
Donna Romano (#7) – 9/5 Morning Line Favorite
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. | Trainer: Brad Cox
The odds-on morning line favorite for the powerful Cox barn represents the logical choice. She “drew the rail in a large field at Saratoga in an auction maiden special weight race” where “the final time came back solid that day and her speed figures were solid for that effort”. The analysis notes “this is a tougher field, but Brad Cox’s horses tend to be better in their second starts”.
However, expert opinion suggests caution: “She’s the morning line favorite in this spot, but I think 9-5 is a little too short for my liking. If her price floats up, I’d be more inclined to back her, but for now, I’m viewing her as more of a backup”. Cox dominated last year’s fall meet with 14 winners from 37 starters for 38% and shows 27% winners from spring 2025 starts. Ortiz Jr. adds significant value after relocating to Kentucky for fall season success.
Kingsolver (#1) – 3/1 Second Choice
Jockey: Flavien Prat | Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset
The Irish racing analysis identifies Kingsolver as a main threat, noting she “placed in a higher grade last time”. Expert analysis confirms she “broke her maiden in the Schuylerville two starts back” and “ran well to be second in the Debutante at Ellis Park where she finished in front of Prowess (#6), who she sees again today”. Crucially, “Flavien Prat was aboard for her only career win and he’s back in the saddle again today”.
Brisset dominated fall 2024 with nine wins from 20 starters for exceptional 45% strike rate. The trainer-jockey combination provides elite credentials for this proven stakes performer dropping in class.
Secondary Contenders
Spa Prospector (#4) – 6/1
Jockey: Jose Ortiz | Trainer: Thomas Amoss
Expert analysis notes she “had a sweet rail ride, but came up empty” in the Adirondack when facing Tiz in Sight. Despite the favorable trip, she couldn’t capitalize, suggesting potential limitations. However, Amoss maintains solid statistics and Jose Ortiz concentrated his efforts at Keeneland this season with 17 wins during last fall’s meet.
Prowess (#6) – 8/1
Jockey: John Velazquez | Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
She finished behind Kingsolver in the Debutante at Ellis Park. Getting Hall of Fame jockey Velazquez provides class, and McPeek brings stakes experience to the assignment.
My Sweetheart (#5) – 10/1
Jockey: Luan Machado | Trainer: Mark Casse
Irish racing notes her as “a stakes winner” and among the “main threats”. Casse trains both My Sweetheart and top selection Tiz in Sight, providing tactical options in the race.
Longshot Considerations
Final Shipman (#2) – 12/1
Jockey: Gabriel Saez | Trainer: Carl Deville
At 120 pounds, she carries two pounds less than her rivals, indicating a “non-winner of a race other than claiming or starter” allowance condition. The weight break could provide an edge at generous odds.
Annie’s Allie (#3) – 15/1
Jockey: Walter Rodriguez | Trainer: Eric Foster
Listed as also-eligible for a stakes race on August 23 , indicating quality breeding and connections despite longer odds.
Pace Analysis
Expert analysis anticipates “many will be in chase mode early and often” , suggesting a fast early pace typical of competitive juvenile sprint events. The honest early fractions should set up well for closers and horses with tactical speed. Keeneland’s main track shows 52% winners from front-end runners in dirt sprints , making early position crucial.
Key Angles to Consider
Class Relief Angle: Several horses step down from stakes company, including Kingsolver from the Schuylerville and Debutante.
Brad Cox Second-Timer: Donna Romano represents Cox’s second-time starter pattern, though the analysis suggests the odds may be too short.
Proven Distance: Tiz in Sight has proven ability at today’s six-furlong distance in graded company.
Trainer Hot Streaks: Both Brisset (45% fall 2024) and Cox (38% fall 2024) bring exceptional recent statistics.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Tiz in Sight (#8) offers the best combination of class, form, and value at 5/2 odds with expert analysis supporting the selection.
Place/Show: Kingsolver (#1) provides solid backup with proven connections and class relief from stakes company.
Exacta: Key Tiz in Sight over Donna Romano, Kingsolver, and Spa Prospector for potentially profitable combinations.
Trifecta: Build around Tiz in Sight and Kingsolver while including My Sweetheart and Prowess for value underneath.
Final Selection
Win: Tiz in Sight (#8) – Expert top pick with class advantage and tactical speed
Place: Kingsolver (#1) – Class horse with proven connections dropping down
Show: Donna Romano (#7) – Cox second-timer likely to hit the board despite short odds
The race sets up perfectly for Tiz in Sight to capitalize on her graded stakes experience against this allowance field, while the expected fast pace should allow her tactical speed to shine through under Gaffalione’s patient handling.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight (3:08 PM)
Distance: 7 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $110,000
This maiden special weight event for three-year-olds and upward represents one of the more challenging handicapping puzzles on the card, featuring 11 runners with quality breeding and connections. The race carries preference for horses that have not started for less than $40,000 in their last three starts, indicating a competitive field of well-bred maidens seeking their first victory.
Key Contenders
Barb (#10) – 3/1 Top Selection
Jockey: Flavien Prat | Trainer: Michael Maker
Leading handicapping analysis identifies Barb as having “a top jockey booked and gets the nod”. The Sky Sports form shows him with recent efforts of 463224, indicating consistency and improvement. Flavien Prat brings elite credentials as the #1 money-winning jockey in 2025 with $30,067,817 in earnings from 934 starts, posting 219 wins at 23%. His partnership with Maker has proven successful, as Maker ranks #8 nationally with $12,784,743 in earnings and 155 wins. The spring 2025 Keeneland statistics show Maker with 4 wins from 24 starts at 17%.
Divine Justice (#6) – 4/1 Second Choice
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione | Trainer: Brad Cox
The Brad Cox-trained colt by Justify out of Rarities brings exceptional breeding and connections. Cox dominated last year’s fall meet with 14 winners from 37 starters for 38% and shows 32% win rate on main track during spring 2025. His maiden special weight horses often improve significantly in subsequent starts. Gaffalione recently captured the Churchill September title with 26 wins at 25% and brings defending champion credentials from last year’s fall meet with 24 wins. The Sky Sports analysis shows Divine Justice with a form figure of “2,” indicating a second-place effort in his most recent start.
Crazy Diamond (#11) – 8/1 Value Play
Jockey: John Velazquez | Trainer: Dallas Stewart
The Omaha Beach colt out of Five Funs represents excellent value with Hall of Fame jockey Velazquez aboard. Sky Sports shows him with a recent form figure of “6” but notes he has an official rating of 96, equal to Barb and suggesting significant ability. Velazquez’s class and experience often unlock improvement in lightly raced horses. The Omaha Beach sire line has shown consistent success with maidens stretching out in distance.
Secondary Contenders
Hitchcock (#5) – 8/1
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. | Trainer: Peter Eurton
The expert analysis from earlier identified Hitchcock as “the value play with class connections” at 8/1 odds. Ortiz Jr. relocated to Kentucky for the fall season after finishing second at Churchill Downs with 23 wins at 27%. The combination of Ortiz Jr.’s current form and Eurton’s training provides solid credentials at attractive odds.
Ripped (#8) – 12/1
Jockey: Keith Asmussen | Trainer: Steven Asmussen
The Sky Sports form shows extensive racing experience with figures of 967638, indicating multiple starts and some competitive efforts. Steven Asmussen ranks #2 nationally with $19,625,317 in earnings and brings exceptional maiden expertise. Having son Keith aboard maintains family connections while potentially offering value at longer odds.
Bob Mo (#4) – 10/1
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo | Trainer: Rohan Crichton
The handicapping analysis notes Bob Mo “has a decent chance on the figures and can emerge second best”. His consistent form and improving connections make him a threat at attractive odds.
Longshot Considerations
Nu What’s New (#3) – 12/1
Jockey: Walter Rodriguez | Trainer: James DiVito
The analysis suggests he “commands respect as well”. Sky Sports shows recent form of 672 with an official rating of 92, indicating competitive ability at generous odds.
Morlock (#1) – 7/2
Jockey: Luis Saez | Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Sky Sports shows extensive form figures of 2223-22, indicating consistent placing efforts. Saez finished second to Gaffalione last fall with 20 wins and maintains strong statistics.
Pace Analysis
The race projects to develop moderate early pace with several horses possessing tactical speed rather than pure front-running ability. The 7-furlong distance should allow for genuine pace development, setting up well for horses with closing kicks. Keeneland’s main track favors front-end speed with 52% winners from on-pace runners in dirt sprints , making early position important but not essential.
Key Angles to Consider
Elite Jockey Angle: The race features four elite riders in Prat, Gaffalione, Ortiz Jr., and Velazquez, suggesting the top trainers view this as a competitive maiden with earning potential.
Brad Cox Maiden Pattern: Cox’s maidens often show significant improvement in subsequent starts, making Divine Justice a logical choice despite competitive odds.
Breeding Upgrade: Several horses by top sires (Justify, Omaha Beach) suggest quality that may translate to breakthrough performances.
Experience vs. Class: The field splits between lightly raced horses with breeding and more experienced maidens seeking breakthrough wins.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Barb (#10) offers the best combination of proven connections, elite jockey, and handicapping support at 3/1 odds.
Place/Show: Divine Justice (#6) provides solid backup with Cox’s maiden expertise and Gaffalione’s current form.
Exacta: Key Barb over Divine Justice and Crazy Diamond for potentially profitable combinations given the class of connections.
Trifecta: Build around Barb and Divine Justice while including Hitchcock and Crazy Diamond for value in third position.
Pick 6 Strategy: As the opening leg of the traditional $1 Pick 6 , consider using multiple horses given the competitive nature and maiden unpredictability.
Final Selection
Win: Barb (#10) – Top handicapping choice with elite jockey and proven trainer
Place: Divine Justice (#6) – Cox maiden with improvement expected
Show: Crazy Diamond (#11) – Value play with Hall of Fame rider and quality breeding
The competitive nature of this maiden special weight, combined with the quality of connections throughout the field, suggests Barb’s proven form and Prat’s current excellence provide the most reliable path to victory in this challenging opener to the Pick 6 sequence.
Race 6 – Allowance Turf (3:40 PM)
Distance: 1 Mile Turf | Purse: $120,000
This challenging allowance contest for fillies and mares brings together 16 runners on Keeneland’s Haggin Course turf with the rail at 0 feet. The field represents fillies and mares that have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter or have never won two races, creating a competitive mix of lightly raced and experienced campaigners seeking breakthrough performances.
Key Contenders
Hear the Queen (#2) – 7/5 Morning Line Favorite
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. | Trainer: Brad Cox
The Audible filly out of Behold The Queen enters with exceptional credentials and connections. Sky Sports shows impressive form figures of 541-13 with an official rating of 105, the highest in the field. Expert analysis identifies her as having “a top jockey booked and gets the nod” in this competitive field.
Cox dominated last year’s fall meet with 14 winners from 37 starters for 38% and shows particularly strong turf statistics with 11% win rate during spring 2025 despite limited turf opportunities. Crucially, Cox’s spring 2025 turf statistics show just 9 starts with 1 win, but his 18 favorites went 6-for-18 at 33%. The combination with Ortiz Jr., who relocated to Kentucky for fall season success after posting 23 wins at 27% at Churchill Downs, provides elite credentials.
Modern Sound (#12) – 5/2 Second Choice
Jockey: Flavien Prat | Trainer: Michael Maker
The Audible filly out of Modern Masterpiece brings proven form and elite connections. Recent Kentucky Downs results show Modern Sound finishing third on September 7 with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, indicating competitive ability at the highest levels. Maker ranks #8 nationally with $12,784,743 in earnings and 155 wins, showing exceptional turf expertise with 351 turf starts in his career.
Spring 2025 statistics show Maker with 24 starts and 4 wins at 17%, but his turf record shows 14 starts with 2 wins at 14%. Prat’s partnership with Maker has proven successful, and he brings elite status as the nation’s leading money-winning jockey with over $30 million in 2025 earnings.
Caitlin Time (#16) – 8/1 Value Play
Jockey: Flavien Prat | Trainer: Michael Maker
The Not This Time filly out of Dream Your Dreams represents Maker’s second runner in the field. Recent Kentucky Downs form shows Caitlin Time finishing fifth on September 7 with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard. The significant jockey upgrade to Prat suggests improvement expected from this lightly raced filly. Maker’s dual representation indicates strong confidence in the race setup.
Secondary Contenders
Golden Gamble (#9) – 10/1
Jockey: Jose Ortiz | Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
The Laoban filly out of Me And Mine brings solid breeding credentials. Sky Sports shows form figures of 432542 with an official rating of 95, indicating consistent competitive efforts. McPeek maintains strong statistics and Jose Ortiz concentrated his efforts at Keeneland this season with 17 wins during last fall’s meet.
Eunomia (#10) – 12/1
Jockey: Lanfranco Dettori | Trainer: Victoria Oliver
The Tiz The Law filly out of Speedy Vanessa gets Hall of Fame jockey Dettori, whose class and turf expertise could unlock improvement. Sky Sports shows an official rating of 90 with recent form suggesting potential.
In the Stars (#6) – 6/1
Jockey: Luis Saez | Trainer: George Arnold II
The Into Mischief filly out of Stellar Wind brings exceptional breeding power. She carries 120 pounds, indicating an allowance condition advantage. Saez finished second to Gaffalione last fall with 20 wins and maintains strong form.
Longshot Considerations
Romany Road (#3) – 15/1
Jockey: Florent Geroux | Trainer: Brian Williamson
The Good Samaritan filly shows Sky Sports form figures of 43-2412 with an official rating of 82. Geroux brings elite credentials and could provide value at generous odds.
Exclusive Star (#11) – 20/1
Jockey: Ben Curtis | Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
The American Pharoah filly provides quality breeding at substantial odds with proven connections.
Pace Analysis
The large field of 16 suggests moderate to honest early pace, typical of turf allowance events where tactical positioning becomes crucial. Keeneland’s turf course historically favors off-the-pace runners, with stalkers and closers combining for 76% of victories. The one-mile distance allows for genuine pace development, setting up well for horses with closing kicks and tactical speed.
Key Angles to Consider
Brad Cox Turf Angle: Despite limited turf opportunities, Cox’s 33% favorite rate during spring 2025 suggests his turf horses are properly placed when entered.
Michael Maker Double: Maker’s decision to enter both Modern Sound and Caitlin Time indicates confidence in the race setup and his fillies’ fitness.
Jockey Upgrades: Several horses show significant jockey improvements, particularly Caitlin Time getting Prat and Eunomia adding Dettori.
Class Relief: Multiple horses stepping down from higher-level competition should appreciate this allowance condition.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Hear the Queen (#2) offers the best combination of form, connections, and race setup despite short odds. Her 105 official rating significantly exceeds the field.
Place/Show: Modern Sound (#12) provides solid backup with proven connections and recent competitive form.
Exacta: Key Hear the Queen over Modern Sound and Caitlin Time for potentially profitable combinations given Maker’s dual representation.
Trifecta: Build around Hear the Queen and Modern Sound while including Golden Gamble and In the Stars for value underneath.
Pick 3 Strategy: This race serves as the opening leg of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3 covering races 6, 8, and 10. Consider using multiple horses given the competitive 16-horse field.
Final Selection
Win: Hear the Queen (#2) – Class horse with highest official rating and elite connections
Place: Modern Sound (#12) – Proven form with elite jockey-trainer combination
Show: Caitlin Time (#16) – Value play with significant jockey upgrade and proven connections
The competitive nature of this 16-horse turf allowance makes Hear the Queen’s class advantage and elite connections the most reliable path to victory, while Maker’s dual representation provides excellent place and show value for exotic wagering strategies.
Race 7 – Phoenix Stakes G2 (4:12 PM)
The 173rd running of the Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes serves as a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Del Mar. This Grade 2 sprint has launched champions like Whitmore, Runhappy, Work All Week, and Aloha West to Breeders’ Cup Sprint victories. The compact field of six seasoned campaigners brings proven graded stakes credentials to this prestigious event.
Key Contenders
Nakatomi (#5) – 13/8 Morning Line Favorite
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. | Trainer: Wesley Ward
The six-year-old gelding brings exceptional Keeneland credentials with a 6-3-2-0 record at the track, including runner-up finishes in the last two editions of this race. Expert analysis identifies him as the selection: “This six year old gelding has three wins and two second place finishes in those six local tries. Wesley Ward always targets this meet and he’s looking to get the trophy in this race for the first time”.
The tactical advantage is key: “I think he’s going to get the right setup with Skelly (#3) blazing the trail and World Record (#4) hot on his trail. Nakatomi is at his best when he’s not too far off the pace, and I trust Irad Ortiz is going to give him the right ride”. Ward finished fifth last fall with seven winners and brings proven stakes success. Ortiz Jr. relocated to Kentucky for fall season success after 23 wins at 27% at Churchill Downs.
Career statistics show 23 starts with 6 wins, 4 seconds, and 7 thirds for $1,726,026 in earnings. The combination of proven track record, tactical positioning, and elite connections makes him the logical choice despite coming off his only Grade 1 victory in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes.
World Record (#4) – 9/4 Second Choice
Jockey: Flavien Prat | Trainer: Rodolphe Brisset
The four-year-old colt by Constitution out of Diva Delite brings exceptional recent form with a rapid 1:07.84 six-furlong victory. Brisset dominated fall 2024 with nine wins from 20 starters for 45% strike rate. The combination with Prat, the nation’s leading money-winning jockey with over $30 million in 2025 earnings, provides elite credentials.
However, expert analysis suggests caution: “World Record hot on his trail” indicates he may press the pace and set up the race for Nakatomi’s tactical style. The scratch watch notes show he was originally entered in the Level Stakes at Churchill Downs on September 13 but was scratched by stewards , suggesting potential connections concerns.
Skelly (#3) – 5/2 Third Choice
Jockey: Luis Saez | Trainer: Steven Asmussen
The six-year-old gelding brings the highest speed figures in the field but faces track and trainer concerns. Expert analysis notes: “Skelly is a nice horse that has shown the ability to run the best figures in this field. He’s never been to Keeneland, and his trainer, Steve Asmussen has struggled considerably here over the last several years. Outside of Oaklawn Park, this one is not nearly as threatening”.
The analysis continues: “He should be a short price in this race, but I think he’s vulnerable in this spot. I’ll upgrade him if speed is holding well, but I think Nakatomi is the one to beat here”. Recent form shows a rapid 1:08.15 six-furlong victory , but the Keeneland unfamiliarity and Asmussen’s local struggles create concerns despite elite speed figures.
Secondary Contenders
Whatchatalkinabout (#2) – 8/1
Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo | Trainer: Wesley Ward
The four-year-old gelding represents Ward’s second runner in the field. The Daily Racing Form YouTube analysis suggests skepticism: “Neither is what you’re talking about. At least in my opinion. I just to me this horse has got figures that suggest that he’s pretty good and I just I think he’s just a very dressed up horse”.
The criticism continues: “Two of his big speed figures this year have come with Lasix. He does not get to run on Lasix here. Make of that what you will”. However, Ward’s dual representation indicates tactical options and confidence in the race setup.
Longshot Considerations
Durante (#1) – 20/1
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione | Trainer: David Jacobson
The six-year-old gelding shows Racing TV form figures of 313495, indicating some competitive efforts. Gaffalione recently captured the Churchill September title with 26 wins at 25% and brings defending champion credentials. At 20/1 odds, he provides exotic value despite longer form concerns.
Here Mi Song (#6) – 12/1
Jockey: Edgar Morales | Trainer: William Stinson Jr.
The seven-year-old gelding shows Racing TV form figures of 005312, indicating recent struggles. However, the veteran campaigner could provide surprise value in a small field where one pace collapse could dramatically alter the outcome.
Pace Analysis
Expert analysis projects a fast early pace: “I think he’s going to get the right setup with Skelly (#3) blazing the trail and World Record (#4) hot on his trail”. This pace scenario favors Nakatomi’s tactical style, positioning him to capitalize on early speed duel between the front-runners. The compact six-horse field should develop genuine pace, particularly important in a Grade 2 sprint where every runner possesses stakes-caliber speed.
Key Angles to Consider
Breeders’ Cup Prep Angle: As a “Win and You’re In” qualifier, connections view this as a crucial stepping stone to Del Mar, ensuring peak form and serious intentions.
Track Specialist: Nakatomi’s 6-3-2-0 Keeneland record significantly exceeds his overall statistics, indicating genuine track preference.
Pace Setup: The projected speed duel between Skelly and World Record should set up perfectly for Nakatomi’s stalking style.
Trainer Targets: Ward “always targets this meet” and seeks his first Phoenix Stakes victory after near misses in 2023 and 2024.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Nakatomi (#5) offers the best combination of track record, tactical advantage, and race setup despite short odds.
Place/Show: World Record (#4) should hit the board with elite connections despite pace concerns.
Exacta: Key Nakatomi over World Record and Skelly for combinations reflecting the expected pace scenario.
Trifecta: Build around Nakatomi while including all runners given the compact field and Grade 2 quality.
Pick 4 Strategy: This race serves as the second leg of the traditional Pick 4 covering races 7-10. Nakatomi appears the most reliable selection.
Final Selection
Win: Nakatomi (#5) – Track specialist with perfect pace setup and proven connections
Place: World Record (#4) – Elite form with quality connections despite pace concerns
Show: Skelly (#3) – Highest speed figures but track and trainer concerns
The race sets up perfectly for Nakatomi to capitalize on his exceptional Keeneland record and Ward’s proven stakes expertise, while the projected pace scenario strongly favors his tactical running style in this prestigious Breeders’ Cup qualifier.
Race 8 – Jessamine Stakes G2 (4:44 PM)
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Turf | Purse: $400,000
The Jessamine Stakes serves as a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar. This Grade 2 turf contest for two-year-old fillies has drawn an overflow field of 14 runners, making it one of the most competitive juvenile turf events of the season.
Key Contenders
Time to Dream (#12) – 2/1 Morning Line Favorite
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. | Trainer: Todd Pletcher
The undefeated Into Mischief filly out of All About The Girl enters as the heavy favorite with a perfect 2-for-2 record. Expert analysis notes: “While Todd Pletcher’s undefeated filly, Time to Dream (#12) will grab the headlines, I think this race is wide open”. Racing TV shows her carrying 120 pounds, indicating allowance weight conditions.
The filly represents Pletcher’s proven ability with juvenile fillies on turf and brings the nation’s leading connections. Ortiz Jr. relocated to Kentucky for fall season success after posting 23 wins at 27% at Churchill Downs. However, expert analysis suggests caution about the short odds in such a competitive field.
Aggressive Lime (#4) – 8/1 Value Selection
Jockey: Flavien Prat | Trainer: Brad Cox
The Authentic filly out of Cool Beans represents the powerful Cox barn with elite rider Prat. Cox dominated last year’s fall meet with 14 winners from 37 starters for 38% and has exceptional success with juvenile fillies, including 2019 Alcibiades winner British Idiom who went on to Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies victory. Sky Sports shows her with form figure “1” and official rating of 90.
Cox’s spring 2025 statistics show particularly strong results with favorites going 6-for-18 at 33%. The combination with Prat, the nation’s leading money-winning jockey with over $30 million in 2025 earnings, provides elite credentials at attractive 8/1 odds.
Imaginationthelady (#11) – 10/1 European Influence
Jockey: Lanfranco Dettori | Trainer: Brendan Walsh
The Irish-bred daughter of Galileo Gold out of Kodiac brings European breeding and Walsh’s proven turf expertise. Walsh finished tied for third last fall with eight wins and maintains strong turf connections with 28% win rate during spring 2025. The spring statistics show Walsh with particularly strong turf results at 20% compared to 32% on dirt.
Dettori’s Hall of Fame credentials and European turf experience provide significant advantages, especially with Irish breeding. Walsh’s background includes extensive European experience and success bringing Irish-bred horses to North American turf. Racing TV shows starting price odds of 13/2, indicating respected form.
Secondary Contenders
Mackinac (#2) – 9/2 Second Choice
Jockey: Luis Saez | Trainer: George Arnold II
Sky Sports shows solid form figures with an official rating of 85. Arnold II brings proven stakes experience and Saez finished second to Gaffalione last fall with 20 wins. The combination provides solid backup credentials at attractive odds.
Infinite Sky (#9) – 5/1 Cox Second String
Jockey: Luan Machado | Trainer: Brad Cox
Cox’s second runner in the field indicates strong confidence in the race setup. The trainer’s dual representation suggests tactical options and belief in his fillies’ readiness for Grade 2 competition.
Dyna (#14) – 6/1 International Shipper
Jockey: Flavien Prat | Trainer: Kevin Attard
The scratch watch notes show Dyna was originally entered in the Natalma at Woodbine on September 13 but was scratched by stewards. Getting Prat for the ride indicates serious intentions despite the travel from Canada.
Longshot Considerations
Lit Ship (#1) – 6/1
Jockey: Jose Ortiz | Trainer: Joe Sharp
The scratch watch shows Lit Ship was also scratched from a September 13 race at Churchill Downs by stewards. Jose Ortiz concentrated his efforts at Keeneland this season with 17 wins during last fall’s meet.
Soloist (#13) – 10/1
Jockey: John Velazquez | Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
Expert analysis identifies her as part of the wide-open field. Velazquez brings Hall of Fame credentials and McPeek maintains strong juvenile development.
Pace Analysis
The large field of 14 suggests moderate early pace with tactical positioning crucial on Keeneland’s turf course. Expert analysis notes this as “wide open,” indicating multiple pace scenarios possible with the diverse field composition. Keeneland’s turf course historically favors off-the-pace runners, with stalkers and closers combining for 76% of victories.
The 1 1/16-mile distance allows for genuine pace development, setting up well for horses with closing kicks. The European influence through Imaginationthelady and international connections suggests varied tactical approaches that could create ideal race flow.
Key Angles to Consider
Breeders’ Cup Prep: As a “Win and You’re In” qualifier, connections view this as crucial for Del Mar positioning, ensuring peak form and serious intentions.
Brad Cox Juveniles: Cox’s proven success with two-year-old fillies, including Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner British Idiom, provides strong angle for both Aggressive Lime and Infinite Sky.
European Breeding: Imaginationthelady’s Galileo Gold breeding and Walsh’s Irish connections provide tactical advantages on turf.
Undefeated Angle: Time to Dream’s perfect record attracts attention but also creates potential overlay situations for other contenders.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Aggressive Lime (#4) offers the best combination of value and winning chance with Cox’s juvenile expertise and Prat’s elite status at 8/1 odds.
Place/Show: Time to Dream (#12) likely hits the board despite short odds given undefeated record and elite connections.
Exacta: Key Aggressive Lime over Time to Dream and Imaginationthelady for combinations reflecting value and class.
Trifecta: Build around Aggressive Lime while including Mackinac, Infinite Sky, and Soloist for value underneath in the competitive field.
Pick 3 Strategy: This race serves as the second leg of the All-Turf Pick 3 covering races 6, 8, and 10. Consider multiple horses given the competitive nature.
Final Selection
Win: Aggressive Lime (#4) – Best value with proven juvenile connections and elite jockey
Place: Time to Dream (#12) – Undefeated favorite with Hall of Fame trainer
Show: Imaginationthelady (#11) – European influence with elite turf connections
The wide-open nature of this Grade 2 event makes Aggressive Lime’s 8/1 odds attractive given Cox’s exceptional success with juvenile fillies and Prat’s current excellence, while the competitive 14-horse field provides multiple exotic wagering opportunities in this prestigious Breeders’ Cup qualifier.
Race 9 – Darley Alcibiades G1 (5:16 PM)
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Dirt | Purse: $650,000
The 74th running of the Darley Alcibiades Stakes serves as the opening day feature at Keeneland and a crucial “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar. This prestigious Grade 1 contest has produced champions like Wonder Wheel, British Idiom, and Simply Ravishing who went on to capture Breeders’ Cup glory.
The Overwhelming Favorite
Tommy Jo (#3) – 2/5 Morning Line Favorite
Jockey: John Velazquez | Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Tommy Jo enters as “a truly overwhelming, justifiable favorite” following her dominant summer campaign. The undefeated Into Mischief filly out of Mother Mother showcased exceptional ability in her Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes victory, winning by 6½ lengths in 1:23.39 while posting superior speed figures.
Form Analysis: Her debut at Saratoga on July 26 produced a 3¾-length maiden victory over six furlongs, earning a 93 Equibase speed figure. The performance was impressive enough to advance directly to graded stakes company in the Spinaway Stakes on August 30, where she stalked early before accelerating away to her dominant triumph.
Expert analysis confirms her class advantage: “Her Brisnet Speed figures tower over this cast, she is bred to handle the stretch out in distance with ease”. Pletcher secured his record-extending seventh Spinaway victory with Tommy Jo, surpassing Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. The combination with Velazquez, who rode her debut victory, provides elite credentials for the distance stretch-out.
Distance Concerns: The sole question mark surrounds “her first attempt at the demanding two-turn distance of 1 1/16 miles”. However, her Into Mischief breeding by Pioneerof the Nile suggests natural ability to handle the additional furlong.
Key Contenders
Percy’s Bar (#1) – 3/1 Second Choice
Jockey: Luan Machado | Trainer: Ben Colebrook
The rematch from the Spinaway Stakes brings Percy’s Bar back to face Tommy Jo after finishing second by 6½ lengths. Expert analysis identifies tactical advantages: “Percy’s Bar is the logical second, having chased the favorite last time out” with the caveat that she “was left with far too much to do in the Spinaway after being held up in the rear for the first half of the race”.
Form Credentials: She enters with a perfect 2-for-2 record, including a victory in the Listed Debutante Stakes at Churchill Downs before the Spinaway effort. Racing Post form shows her maintaining 100% win rate over two career starts with $203,000 in earnings. The distance stretch-out to 1 1/16 miles should favor her running style and breeding.
Trainer Profile: Ben Colebrook brings solid credentials with career statistics showing 335 wins from 2,683 starts for 12.5% and over $19.7 million in earnings. His experience developing juveniles provides confidence for this Grade 1 assignment.
Go to Girl (#2) – 20/1 Longshot Value
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. | Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
The Knicks Go filly represents significant value with elite jockey Ortiz Jr. taking the mount. Expert analysis notes “Irad Ortiz is a notable booking” and “she should thrive over this distance”. McPeek’s proven success in this race, including 2020 winner Simply Ravishing, provides strong historical precedent.
Recent form shows “she was a winner on her latest effort” and “faced stronger competition finishing third in her second outing than The Grumpy Rabbit has met”. McPeek’s dual representation indicates confidence in the race setup and his fillies’ readiness.
Secondary Contenders
The Grumpy Rabbit (#4) – 12/1
Jockey: Flavien Prat | Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
McPeek’s second runner brings different tactical dimensions with Prat aboard. The Not This Time filly out of Midtown Traffic shows 50% win rate from two starts with $72,269 in earnings and speed figure of 78. However, expert analysis suggests caution: she has faced weaker competition than Go to Girl.
Haute Diva (#5) – 6/1 Value Horse
Jockey: Luis Saez | Trainer: Patrick Biancone
Expert analysis identifies her as the key value play: “you must include the value horse, Haute Diva, whose 6-1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes odds significantly boost the potential payout”. She “was a winner last time out, but she was well-beaten on her effort at Gulfstream Park in August”. The wide post position (#5) may create tactical challenges, but Saez brings proven experience.
Longshot Consideration
Wonzee Weather (#6) – 30/1
Jockey: Chase Miller | Trainer: Darrin Miller
The ultimate longshot provides exotic value with father-son Miller connections. Her 30/1 odds make her a potential trifecta and superfecta inclusion given the small field dynamics.
Pace Analysis
Expert analysis projects honest early pace with Tommy Jo’s tactical style setting up perfectly. Her ability to stalk and accelerate, demonstrated in both career starts, should allow patient positioning before her superior turn of foot takes over. The compact six-horse field reduces pace complications while ensuring genuine fractions for the distance.
Key Angles to Consider
Breeders’ Cup Prep: As a “Win and You’re In” qualifier, connections bring peak form and serious intentions for this $650,000 feature.
Todd Pletcher Dominance: His record-extending seventh Spinaway victory and exceptional juvenile filly development provide strong historical precedent.
Distance Advantage: The stretch-out from seven furlongs to 1 1/16 miles may favor closers like Percy’s Bar and Go to Girl over pure speed types.
McPeek Double: His dual representation with different tactical horses suggests confidence in race setup and multiple winning scenarios.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Tommy Jo (#3) represents the class of the field despite short 2/5 odds. Her superior speed figures and proven ability make her the logical choice for serious money.
Exotic Focus: The small six-horse field makes exotic wagering attractive. Expert recommendation includes “anchoring Tommy Jo in the top spot of your exacta and trifecta tickets”.
Value Strategy: Key Tommy Jo over Percy’s Bar for exactas, then include Haute Diva and Go to Girl for trifecta value given their attractive odds and competitive ability.
Superfecta: The compact field allows reasonable superfecta coverage using Tommy Jo on top with various combinations underneath.
Final Selection
Win: Tommy Jo (#3) – Overwhelming class advantage with superior speed figures
Place: Percy’s Bar (#1) – Logical second choice with distance advantage
Show: Go to Girl (#2) – Elite jockey pickup with distance breeding
The race sets up as Tommy Jo’s coronation party before the Breeders’ Cup, but the competitive nature of her opponents and the distance stretch-out provide sufficient value in exotic wagering to make this prestigious Grade 1 feature both predictable and profitable.
Race 10 – Maiden Special Weight Turf (5:48 PM)
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Turf | Purse: $110,000
Key Contenders: Market Chill (#10) with Flavien Prat for Chad Brown brings proven connections. Raiding Party (#1) debuts for Brendan Walsh with Tyler Gaffalione.
Selection: Market Chill (#10) for the Brown barn.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz Jr. has relocated to Kentucky for the fall season after finishing second at Churchill Downs September meet with 23 wins at a 27% clip. He brings exceptional form and motivation to the Keeneland meet.
Tyler Gaffalione enters as defending champion from last year’s fall meet with 24 wins. He recently won the Churchill September title with 26 wins at 25%.
Luis Saez finished second to Gaffalione last fall with 20 wins and maintains strong form. The spring 2025 Keeneland statistics show him with 18 wins from 79 starts at 23%.
Jose Ortiz will concentrate his efforts at Keeneland this season and had 17 wins during last fall’s meet. His spring 2025 statistics show solid consistency.
Flavien Prat maintains his status as one of the nation’s leading riders with strong statistics.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brad Cox dominated last year’s fall meet with 14 winners from 37 starters for a remarkable 38% win rate. His spring 2025 statistics show 10 wins from 37 starts at 27%. Cox continues as the trainer to follow.
Brendan Walsh finished tied for third last fall with eight wins and maintains strong turf connections. His spring statistics show 10 wins from 36 starts at 28%.
Wesley Ward brings proven stakes success and finished fifth last fall with seven winners.
Rodolphe Brisset had an exceptional 2024 fall season with nine wins from 20 starters for 45%.
Todd Pletcher was quieter last fall but brings Tommy Jo as a major contender today.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The track shows strong front-end bias on the main track, with horses on or close to the pace winning 52% of dirt sprints and 57% of dirt routes. Turf racing favors off-the-pace runners with stalkers and closers combining for 76% of victories.
Best Bets:
- Tommy Jo (#3) in Race 9 as the standout Grade 1 favorite
- Trust Account (#5) in Race 3 for turf specialist connections
- Donna Romano (#7) in Race 4 for the hot Cox barn
Value Plays:
- Hitchcock (#5) in Race 5 at 8-1 odds with class connections
- Miss Ellary (#2) in Race 1 as the opening day special
The Pick 4 covering races 7-10 offers solid value with key horses in competitive races.
