Laurel Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for November 16, 2025

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Laurel Park hosts a competitive 10-race card on Sunday, November 16, 2025, featuring both turf and dirt races with the first post at 12:00 PM ET. The card includes multiple route races on both surface, starter optional claiming events, maiden contests, and allowance races, providing many wagering opportunities for handicappers. The racing conditions favor tactical speed and versatile runners who can adapt to pace changes. With several races featuring 14 and 15-horse fields, trip handicapping and post position awareness become crucial in identifying value.

Weather and Track Conditions

Fair weather conditions prevail at Laurel Park with temperatures around 46 degrees Fahrenheit and light northwest winds at 3 mph. The main dirt track is listed as fast, while the turf course maintains a firm designation. These ideal racing conditions should produce fast main track surfaces and firm turf courses that favor tactical speed and versatile runners. The turf rail is positioned at 87 feet for races 1, 4, and 7, and at 35 feet for races 3, 6, and 9.​

Laurel Park boasts one of the widest racing surfaces in North America, which effectively eliminates significant frontrunner bias. The track layout tends to slightly favor closers, especially in route races, as horses making their moves around the turn have plenty of space to stretch out and maneuver. On the turf course, middle stalls four and five have the highest winning percentages, accounting for nearly 38 percent of winners. Inside posts on turf have been largely unproductive, while stalls six and seven each produce winners at about 16.7 percent.

On the main dirt track, post position bias appears relatively balanced in sprint events, with stall seven showing slight profitability. In route races on the main track, outside posts demonstrate a clear advantage, particularly stalls seven and eight. Just 18 percent of route winners emerge from the two inside posts at Laurel, providing strong evidence that the wider track benefits horses drawn wide in longer races. The 1 1/16-mile distance shows particularly strong post position influence, making outside draws valuable in route events.​

Race 1

Post Time

12:00 PM ET – Starter Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Turf, Purse $24,000.​

Pace Analysis

This 14-horse turf route sets up as a contested pace scenario with multiple confirmed speed types. Better Watch It, Keen Surge, Country Charlie, and Your Mission all show early speed tendencies that should create honest fractions. The presence of multiple pace factors favors closers and mid-pack runners with strong finishing kicks. With the turf rail at 87 feet and a full field, trip handicapping and ability to find clear running room become paramount factors.​

Key Contenders

Better Watch It draws the rail and brings consistent form to this starter optional claiming affair. Handicappers favor this runner as a top contender based on recent performances and the ability to press or establish the pace from the favorable inside post. Keen Surge emerges as a consensus selection with strong early speed and positive recent form, narrowly beaten when heavily backed last start at Laurel Park. Your Mission brings experience and tactical speed with jockey J.G. Torrealba aboard, showing the versatility to rate off the pace and finish with authority.​

Secondary Choices

Bourbon Outlaw fits as a mid-pack closer who can benefit from the anticipated contested pace scenario. Basic Miles shows 50 percent in-the-money consistency over his last two starts and could improve with the pace setup. Latin Rebel adds value as a potential upset candidate at longer odds with the ability to close from off the pace.​

Longshots

Heaven’s Champion offers value at 8-1 morning line odds with the tactical speed to capitalize on a pace meltdown. Maupansant represents a live longshot at 14-1 or higher with pace-stalking ability.​

Betting Strategy

Structure horizontal wagers keying Better Watch It, Keen Surge, and Your Mission while spreading to Bourbon Outlaw and Basic Miles underneath. Consider small win wagers on Better Watch It and Keen Surge as dual top selections. The contested pace sets up perfectly for exacta and trifecta coverage using the top contenders over mid-pack closers.​

Selections

Win: Better Watch It

Place: Keen Surge

Show: Your Mission

Race 2

Post Time

12:28 PM ET – Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $45,000.​

Pace Analysis

This Maryland-bred maiden special weight sprint features first-time Lasix restrictions and should develop with honest early fractions. Pont Aven shows the fastest leader profile and projects as the controlling speed from the rail. Caseofthemondays brings strong form from a recent second-place finish over this course and distance. The compact seven-horse field allows for clean trips with minimal traffic concerns.​

Key Contenders

Pont Aven draws the rail and shows a 28 percent win probability based on pace and positional advantages. This Blofeld colt adds blinkers for the first time and has shown speed in two previous starts. Code of Silence steps down in class after placing in stakes company and adds first-time blinkers. Caseofthemondays has strong form with a second-place finish over this course and distance last time out.​

Secondary Choices

Golden Kid placed in a higher class race recently and should benefit from the class relief. Skillian represents trainer Lacey Gaudet and shows competitive speed figures. Make It Quick adds value as a potential improver with jockey Xavier Perez aboard.​

Betting Strategy

Focus on Pont Aven and Code of Silence as dual top selections with Caseofthemondays as the backup choice. Structure exacta boxes using the top three with Golden Kid and Skillian for value coverage underneath. Small win wagers on Pont Aven and Code of Silence provide solid single opportunities.​

Selections

Win: Pont Aven

Place: Code of Silence

Show: Caseofthemondays

Race 3

Post Time

12:57 PM ET – Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $30,000.​

Pace Analysis

This 15-horse maiden claiming route on turf presents significant trip handicapping challenges with the large field and turf rail at 35 feet. Pace projections remain uncertain with multiple first-time starters and lightly raced horses. Horses drawn in middle posts four through seven hold positional advantages based on turf bias patterns at Laurel.​

Key Contenders

Handicappers favor horses with middle post positions and tactical speed in this contentious maiden claiming event. The large field creates numerous longshot opportunities for bettors willing to spread tickets.​

Secondary Choices

Horses with previous turf experience hold advantages over first-time turf runners in this maiden claiming affair. Late-running types benefit from the anticipated pace scenario and wide racing surface.​

Betting Strategy

Use multiple horses in horizontal wagers due to the uncertain pace dynamics and large field size. Focus on horses drawn in posts four through seven to exploit the turf bias. Consider small exacta boxes and trifecta wheels using middle-post runners.​

Selections

Win: Post 6

Place: Post 8

Show: Post 3

Race 4

Post Time

1:26 PM ET – Starter Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf, Purse $37,000.​

Pace Analysis

This 11-horse turf sprint features several confirmed pace factors that should establish contested fractions. The 5 1/2-furlong distance favors horses with tactical speed who can secure favorable position entering the stretch. The turf rail at 87 feet provides ample racing room for horses to find their best stride.​

Key Contenders

Noble Jon brings strong form and tactical positioning ability with jockey Jorge Vargas Jr. aboard. Maya Prince represents trainer Michael Trombetta, the meet’s second-leading conditioner, and fits the class level. Where’s Ray shows tactical speed and recent competitive efforts.​

Secondary Choices

Souzak from France brings European turf experience and represents top trainer H. Graham Motion. Uncle Cat offers value at double-digit odds with mid-pack running style. Great Idea could improve off the layoff with the drop in class.​

Betting Strategy

Focus on Noble Jon and Maya Prince as dual top selections while using Where’s Ray and Souzak underneath in exactas and trifectas. The competitive nature of this starter optional claiming event warrants spreading tickets across multiple contenders.​

Selections

Win: Noble Jon

Place: Maya Prince

Show: Where’s Ray

Race 5

Post Time

1:55 PM ET – Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $22,000.​

Pace Analysis

This nine-horse claiming sprint for fillies and mares features contested early speed between Lost River, South Pacific, and Bond’s Belle. The presence of multiple pace factors sets up perfectly for closers with strong finishing kicks. The compact field size allows for clean trips and minimal traffic concerns.​

Key Contenders

Thunder in Paris represents hot trainer Phillip Capuano and shows tactical speed despite the rail-skewed weight allowance. Youmakemecharlie brings the Michael Trombetta barn and positive jockey Mychel Sanchez. Anotherhope fits the class level and shows improvement potential.​

Secondary Choices

Lost River brings fast leader profile and early speed from post two. South Pacific offers veteran experience as a six-year-old mare. Ade represents value at longer odds with tactical speed.​

Betting Strategy

Key Thunder in Paris and Youmakemecharlie in exactas while spreading to Lost River and Anotherhope underneath. The pace setup favors closers, making Thunder in Paris particularly attractive despite the outside post.​

Selections

Win: Thunder in Paris

Place: Anotherhope

Show: Lost River

Race 6

Post Time

2:24 PM ET – Starter Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Turf, Purse $24,000.​

Pace Analysis

This 14-horse turf route mirrors the first race conditions with the turf rail at 35 feet creating different racing dynamics. Agent Kelly projects as the primary pace factor with fastest leader profile. Sweet Tone shows tactical stalking ability and strong in-the-money consistency. The large field creates trip handicapping challenges that favor experienced turf routers.​

Key Contenders

Robert’s Moon draws the rail and brings tactical speed from trainer Jonathan Maldonado. Where’s Charlie shows strong closing ability with 100 percent in-the-money record over his last start. Sneaking Suspicion fits as a pace-stalking type who can benefit from honest fractions.​

Secondary Choices

Sweet Tone brings consistent form with 80 percent in-the-money percentage and tactical versatility. Wicked Boss represents the Madison Meyers barn and fits the class level. Caddiemaster adds value with tactical speed and trainer Horacio De Paz.​

Betting Strategy

Focus on Robert’s Moon and Where’s Charlie as top selections while spreading to Sneaking Suspicion and Sweet Tone in horizontal wagers. The large field warrants multi-race sequence plays incorporating this race.​

Selections

Win: Robert’s Moon

Place: Where’s Charlie

Show: Sneaking Suspicion

Race 7

Post Time

2:54 PM ET – Starter Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf, Purse $24,000.​

Pace Analysis

This 14-horse turf sprint for fillies and mares features Wonder Girl as the dominant pace factor with fastest leader profile. The mare shows 44 percent win rate over her last nine starts and 67 percent in-the-money consistency. Fivecommatwo brings mid-pack closing ability while Little Lamb Chop shows tactical stalking skills. The competitive sprint distance favors horses with tactical speed who can secure favorable position.​

Key Contenders

Wonder Girl emerges as the consensus top selection with 27 percent career win rate and hot recent form. The mare represents trainer Kieron Magee and draws favorable post seven. Little Lamb Chop fits as the main pace stalker with 52 percent in-the-money consistency. Fivecommatwo offers closing punch with apprentice jockey Yedsit Hazlewood aboard.​

Secondary Choices

River Tay from Ireland brings European turf experience with jockey Jorge Ruiz aboard. Patria shows tactical speed for trainer Marco Salazar. Social Whirl adds veteran experience as a seven-year-old mare.​

Betting Strategy

Wonder Girl stands out as a strong single in all horizontal wagers based on pace advantage and recent form. Key Wonder Girl over Little Lamb Chop and Fivecommatwo in exactas while spreading to River Tay and Patria for trifecta coverage.​

Selections

Win: Wonder Girl

Place: Fivecommatwo

Show: Little Lamb Chop

Race 8

Post Time

3:23 PM ET – Allowance, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, Purse $49,000.​

Pace Analysis

This 10-horse dirt route allowance features moderate pace dynamics with tactical speed distributed throughout the field. The 1 1/16-mile distance favors horses with proven route credentials and outside post positions. The coupled entry of Majestic Tiger and Mad Banker (6A-7A) from trainer Jamie Ness adds betting intrigue.​

Key Contenders

Mika represents trainer Brittany Russell, the meet’s leading conditioner with 29 wins, and shows tactical speed. Super Accelerate brings veteran experience as a five-year-old gelding. The Ness coupled entry of Majestic Tiger and Mad Banker offers value with favorable outside posts.​

Secondary Choices

Indy Magic fits the allowance condition and shows competitive speed figures. Holiday Express brings tactical speed for trainer Benjamin Perkins Jr.. Amy’s Music represents Michael Trombetta and receives significant weight allowance with apprentice jockey Yedsit Hazlewood.​

Betting Strategy

Focus on Mika and the Ness entry as dual top selections while spreading to Super Accelerate and Holiday Express underneath. The allowance condition creates competitive racing that warrants exacta boxes and trifecta wheels.​

Selections

Win: Mika

Place: Super Accelerate

Show: Holiday Express

Race 9

Post Time

3:53 PM ET – Allowance, 1 1/8 Miles Turf, Purse $49,000.​

Pace Analysis

This 15-horse turf marathon at 1 1/8 miles develops with moderate pace dynamics and tactical positioning. The distance favors horses with proven stamina and strong closing kicks. The coupled entry of Primed to Go and Outrunner (9A-15A) from trainer Jorge Duarte Jr. adds betting complexity. The turf rail at 35 feet provides multiple racing lanes for late-closing types.​

Key Contenders

Phil’s Prince brings consistent form and tactical speed for trainer Madison Meyers. Ennis Town represents Michael Trombetta with jockey J.G. Torrealba aboard. Paraclete draws inside post with blinkers and represents top trainer H. Graham Motion.​

Secondary Choices

Whiskeyinthejaro shows tactical positioning ability with jockey Mychel Sanchez. Border War brings experience and fits the allowance condition. Name It offers value at double-digit odds with tactical speed.​

Betting Strategy

Focus on Phil’s Prince and Ennis Town as top selections while spreading to Paraclete and the Duarte entry underneath. The large field creates opportunities for trifecta and superfecta coverage using multiple combinations.​

Selections

Win: Phil’s Prince

Place: Ennis Town

Show: Paraclete

Race 10

Post Time

4:23 PM ET – Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $18,000.​

Pace Analysis

This nine-horse claiming route at one mile features the Jamie Ness coupled entry of Alilnalot and Uncle Irish (2A-9A) as pace factors. Shogun Be Fast and Addicted to You show tactical speed capabilities. The claiming level creates competitive racing with multiple live contenders.​

Key Contenders

The Ness coupled entry draws significant attention based on trainer statistics showing 16 wins at the current meet. Addicted to You brings veteran experience as a seven-year-old gelding with tactical speed. Shogun Be Fast fits the claiming level and shows improvement potential.​

Secondary Choices

Admit Nothing offers value at longer odds with tactical positioning ability. Southern Horse from Argentina brings international experience. Midnight Renegade shows mid-pack running style.​

Betting Strategy

Key the Ness entry and Addicted to You as dual top selections while spreading to Shogun Be Fast and Admit Nothing underneath. The claiming route sets up perfectly for exacta coverage using the coupled entry advantage.​

Selections

Win: Uncle Irish/Alilnalot Entry

Place: Addicted to You

Show: Admit Nothing

Jockey Notes and Insights

Yedsit Hazlewood leads all Laurel Park jockeys with 38 wins from 165 starts and $1,309,013 in earnings, posting a strong 23 percent win rate and 52 percent in-the-money percentage. Jorge Ruiz follows with 31 wins from 118 starts and impressive $1,068,150 in purse earnings. Angel Cruz demonstrates strong consistency with 28 wins and 36 percent in-the-money rate while showing particular effectiveness with late-running types. J.G. Torrealba brings 24 wins at 21 percent strike rate with strong positioning skills in route races. Julio Hernandez maintains solid form with experience across all distances and surfaces. Carlos Eduardo Lopez shows 16 percent win rate with 41 percent in-the-money consistency. Xavier Perez demonstrates improving form with tactical riding ability. Mychel Sanchez brings strong pace-stalking skills and route experience.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Brittany Russell dominates the Laurel Park trainer standings with 29 wins from 91 starts, posting an impressive 32 percent win rate and 59 percent in-the-money percentage with $1,087,400 in purse earnings. Michael Trombetta ranks second with 19 wins from 96 starts at 22 percent strike rate and $796,193 in earnings. Jamie Ness holds third position with 16 wins from 78 starts at 20 percent win rate and strong 57 percent in-the-money percentage. Horacio De Paz shows 30 percent win rate with strong tactical training methods. Phillip Capuano demonstrates excellent recent form and strategic placement. H. Graham Motion brings top-level conditioning and strong turf racing expertise. Madison Meyers maintains consistent form across multiple surfaces. Kieron Magee shows 38 percent win rate with specialty in turf sprints. Jonathan Maldonado demonstrates strong tactical training with route horses.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Focus multi-race sequences on the late Pick 3 covering races 8-9-10 with emphasis on trainer Brittany Russell’s Mika in race 8, Michael Trombetta’s Ennis Town in race 9, and Jamie Ness’s coupled entry in race 10. These top trainers show dominant meet statistics that warrant aggressive betting approaches in late-card sequences. Construct Pick 4 wagers from races 7-10 using Wonder Girl as a single in race 7 based on pace advantage and recent form dominance.​

Target exacta boxes in races with contested pace scenarios, particularly race 1 where Better Watch It, Keen Surge, and Your Mission offer value combinations. Race 7 presents single opportunity with Wonder Girl showing clear pace and class advantages over the field. Structure rolling exotic plays using race 2 maiden special weight as a key leg with Pont Aven and Code of Silence offering value.​

Consider daily double coverage connecting race 6 with race 7 using Robert’s Moon and Where’s Charlie in the route with Wonder Girl as a single in the sprint. Exploit post position bias in turf routes by focusing on horses drawn in middle stalls four through seven. Target trifecta wheels in large fields using top selections over multiple combinations underneath, particularly in races 1, 3, 6, and 9. Value plays emerge in claiming routes where class drops and trainer form intersect, specifically targeting Russell, Trombetta, and Ness runners throughout the card.​

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