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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.

Happy Thanksgiving to Laurel Park! Today's holiday card features nine races with a mix of dirt sprints and turf routes. The feature is Race 7, a competitive Allowance Optional Claiming event for sprinters. With a special 11:25 AM post time to get the action started early, the card offers excellent betting opportunities, particularly in the turf events where the rail placement will play a significant role.

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecast: Expect cool and crisp autumn weather. Skies will be partly cloudy with highs ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds will be out of the west at 5-10 mph.
Track Condition: The dirt track should be fast. The turf course is expected to be firm.
Rail Setting: The turf rail is set at 52 feet. This ultra-wide setting significantly reduces the course width, often creating a “super highway” for horses that can secure position. Traffic trouble is common with this setting, making clear trips essential.
Track Bias:

• Dirt Sprints (6F): The main track at Laurel is wide and generally fair, but recent trends show a slight advantage to outside post positions (7+) in sprints. Closers have been getting up in time, especially if the pace is hot.
• Dirt Routes: Outside posts have been performing well. Front-runners can hold on if allowed to set moderate fractions, but the long stretch allows closers to make an impact.
• Turf: With the rail out 52 feet, ground loss on the turns is deadly. Horses that can save ground and pop out (or wire the field) are preferred over deep closers who have to loop the field wide.

Race 1

Post Time

11:25 AM ET – Maiden Claiming $12,500, 1 Mile Dirt

Pace Analysis

A lack of confirmed early speed in this field suggests a muddled pace scenario. Tell 'Em I'm Comin has shown flashes of tactical speed and may find himself on the lead by default. Edelweiss also has enough early foot to be involved from the inside. A slow pace would favor those forwardly placed.

Key Contenders

#1 Tell 'Em I'm Comin (2-1): The morning line favorite looks formidable here for trainer Jose Corrales. He drops into a realistic spot and has shown enough consistency to beat this group. The rail draw is decent for a mile if he can secure position early.
#8 Christmas Spirit: Comes from the Michael Trombetta barn and deserves respect. He has been facing tougher company and should appreciate the class relief.

Secondary Choices

#2 Edelweiss: Draws well and should save ground. If the pace is as slow as expected, he could be right there at the end.
#7 Dats My Pharaoh: A grinder who picks up pieces. If the favorites falter, he is the likely beneficiary for the exotics.

Betting Strategy

The race goes through the #1. Use him as a single in early multi-race wagers or key him on top in trifectas.

Selections

Win: 1
Place: 8
Show: 2

Race 2

Post Time

11:53 AM ET – Claiming $7,500, 6 Furlongs Dirt

Pace Analysis

There is plenty of speed signed on here. #4 Prom Knight and #5 Pudge Boy Palace both like to be forward. This could set up for a stalker or a closer who can pick up the pieces if the leaders duel into submission.

Key Contenders

#5 Pudge Boy Palace (3-1): A strong contender who ran better than his last line suggests. In his last start over a mile, he made a big early move into a hot pace and held on for second. The cutback to 6 furlongs—his winningest distance—is a major positive. Trainer Jose Corrales and jockey Yedsit Hazlewood have a 26% strike rate together in dirt sprints.
#1 Keeping It Country: Draws the rail and should be saving ground. If the pace collapses, he will be the one moving late.

Secondary Choices

#3 P J's Song: Consistent type who fits well at this level.
#6 Island d'Lite: Will likely be involved early but needs to avoid getting caught in a speed duel.

Betting Strategy

Pudge Boy Palace looks like a solid bet to win on the cutback. A Win bet and an Exacta box with #1 and #3 is the play.

Selections

Win: 5
Place: 1
Show: 3

Race 3

Post Time

12:21 PM ET – Starter Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf

Pace Analysis

A competitive turf sprint. #4 El Tinmarin has speed, as does #2 Wiffleball. The wide rail (52 feet) means the run to the turn is short; whoever breaks sharpest will have a huge advantage.

Key Contenders

#8 War Humor: Re-entered for this spot and looks dangerous. He has the tactical speed to sit just off the leaders and pounce. The outside draw is actually decent with the rail out, allowing him to see the field and clear traffic.
**#4 El Tinrin (9-2): Jamie Ness trainee who has plenty of speed. If he clears early, he could be tough to catch.

Secondary Choices

#7 King Covee: A veteran runner who knows this course well.
#2 Wiffleball: Must be respected for his early speed, but the inside post could be a trap if he doesn't break cleanly.

Betting Strategy

This is a wide-open race. War Humor offers good value. Box him in exactas with El Tinmarin and King Covee.

Selections

Win: 8
Place: 4
Show: 7

Race 4

Post Time

12:50 PM ET – Starter Optional Claiming, 7 Furlongs Dirt

Pace Analysis

#7 Devastating looks like the speed of the speed. Ness sends this one out, and with Mychel Sanchez aboard, the intent will be to send hard. #4 Don't Fool With Me will try to keep her honest.

Key Contenders

#7 Devastating (3-2): The clear horse to beat. She has superior speed figures and runs for the high-percentage Ness/Sanchez combo. At 7 furlongs, her speed is a potent weapon.
#8 Arise My Love: The main danger. She should sit a perfect stalking trip from the outside post and get first run at the favorite if she tires.

Secondary Choices

**#4 Don'tool With Me: A solid alternative for the exotics.
#1 Runsweetly: The rail horse who could sneak into the trifecta with a ground-saving trip.

Betting Strategy

Devastating is a likely winner but will be a short price. Try to beat the favorite in verticals by keying Arise My Love in second or top if you want a price.

Selections

Win: 7
Place: 8
Show: 4

Race 5

Post Time

01:19 PM ET – Claiming $7,500, 1 Mile Dirt

Pace Analysis

A lower-level claiming route for fillies and mares often leads to chaotic results. #10 Don't Tell Kelly has speed from the outside and may try to clear. #2 Ribbonsinherhair also has tactical foot.

Key Contenders

#10 Don't Tell Kelly: Despite the wide post, she fits well here. Her recent form is consistent enough to beat this group, and Jeiron Barbosa is an aggressive rider who can overcome the draw.
#2 Ribbonsinherhair: Jamie Ness trainee who drops in for a tag. She will be overbet but must be included on tickets.

Secondary Choices

#3 Baby Sox: A steady grinder who hits the board often.
#5 Skip Thru Da Fire: Corrales trainee who adds depth to the exotics.

Betting Strategy

A race to tread lightly. Don't Tell Kelly is the tepid pick.

Selections

Win: 10
Place: 2
Show: 3

Race 6

Post Time

01:54 PM ET – Maiden Claiming $16,000, 1 1/16 Miles Turf

Pace Analysis

#4 Renfro's Reception was caught in a speed duel last time and should rate better today. #2 Musical Entourage led narrowly last time and will likely be sent again.

Key Contenders

**#4 Reno's Reception (4-1): He took a nice step forward last time on the turf, running a 63 Beyer despite a difficult trip where he was caught tight between foes contesting a fast pace. He is entitled to improve in his third start and should get a much better trip today.
**#Musical Entourage: Showed speed last time before fading. With a slightly easier lead, he could hang around longer.

Secondary Choices

#1 Gordito: The rail horse who could save all the ground.
#12 Pujol: Stuck in the parking lot (post 12) which is brutal with the rail out 52 feet, but has back class.

Betting Strategy

Renfro's Reception is a strong “Best Bet” candidate. The improved trip scenario makes him a prime win candidate.

Selections

Win: 4
Place: 2
Show: 1

Race 7

Post Time

02:24 PM ET – Allowance Optional Claiming $40,000, 6 Furlongs Dirt

Pace Analysis

A high-quality sprint. #6 Seven's Eleven has serious class and speed. ** Heard On Thestreet can also move. The pace should be honest but not suicidal.

Key Contenders

#5 Heard On Thestreet: He had a troubled beginning last time and raced wide, yet still galloped out nicely. Second off the layoff today, he should be sharper and offers value.
#1 Riyadh Moon: The rail horse for Horacio De Paz. He is dangerous if he can work out a trip from the inside.
#3 Bolt of Aurum: Coming off a vet scratch on Oct 29, which is a concern, but his best races put him right in the mix.

Secondary Choices

#6 Seven's Eleven: The class of the field, but carries weight and has been off since the steward scratch in October.

Betting Strategy

Heard On Thestreet is the value play to upset the favorites.

Selections

Win: 5
Place: 1
Show: 3

Race 8

Post Time

02:54 PM ET – Allowance (MD Bred), 1 Mile Turf

Pace Analysis

A full field of Maryland-breds. Traffic will be the main issue. **#11 Nothingbutblueskys a massive closer who needs pace. #14 Thataway is stuck outside.

Key Contenders

#11 Nothingbutbluesky (11-1): The tape on his Oct 25 run is revealing. He was ridden ice cold at the back of the pack until the eighth pole and then surged with real energy to finish just 2 lengths back. With a more aggressive ride today, he can blow up the tote board.
#14 Thataway: Has the talent but the post 14 is a nightmare. He will need a lot of luck.

Secondary Choices

#1 Elfuegomasbrilante: Draws the rail and has speed. He could steal it if the closers get traffic trouble.
#10 Mugatu: A recognizable name who fits on class.

Betting Strategy

Nothingbutbluesky is the longshot play of the day. Win/Place bet.

Selections

Win: 11
Place: 14
Show: 1

Race 9

Post Time

03:24 PM ET – Starter Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt

Pace Analysis

**#7 Winningrip showed a new dimension last time, sitting close to a hot pace and holding on. That “Pace Upgrade” signals he is in peak form. #6 Shootersgottashoot will be firing late.

Key Contenders

#7 Winning Trip: Coming off a gritty win where he prompted a hot pace and held off challenges. He has taken a step forward since being gelded and looks ready to repeat.
#6 Shootersgottashoot: Claudio Gonzalez trainee who always merits respect in the nightcap.

Secondary Choices

#1 Schrader: Rail draw is tricky but has some ability.
#2 Square Slice: A consistent check-getter.

Betting Strategy

End the day with Winning Trip.

Selections

Win: 7
Place: 6
Show: 1

Jockey Notes and Insights

Yedsit Hazlewood: He is clicking at a high rate with trainer Jose Corrales (26% ROI $2.70). Watch him on #5 Pudge Boy Palace (Race 2).
Jevian Toledo: Always dangerous on the turf. Watch his ride on #3 Bolt of Aurum (Race 7) and #10 Mugatu (Race 8).
Mychel Sanchez: In town to ride for Jamie Ness. This combination is lethal. #7 Devastating (Race 4) is their best shot.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jose Corrales: His barn is heating up. Look for his horses to outperform their odds, especially in sprints.
Jamie Ness: As usual, he holds a strong hand in multiple races (Races 3, 4, 5, 8). His horses are almost always “live” and will take money.
A. Ferris Allen: Sends out Edelweiss (Race 1) and Sheriff Ronnie (Race 7). His runners often improve second time off a layoff.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Best Bet: Race 6 #4 Renfro's Reception (4-1) – The trip notes suggest he is much better than his last running line.
Value Play: Race 8 #11 Nothingbutbluesky (11-1) – Visually impressive late kick in his last start suggests he is sitting on a big race.
Live Longshot: Race 2 #5 Pudge Boy Palace (3-1) – Not a huge longshot, but offers great value on the cutback in distance.

Suggested Early Pick 4 (Races 2-5):
Race 2: 1, 5
Race 3: 4, 7, 8
Race 4: 7, 8
Race 5: 2, 10
Cost for $0.50 ticket: $12.00