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Laurel Park presents a nine-race card this Sunday to close out the holiday weekend. The program features a mix of claiming sprints and allowance routes, highlighted by a competitive allowance optional claiming event in Race 8. Bettors should note significant carryovers in the Jackpot Pick 6 and Super High 5 pools, adding extra incentive to the late sequences.
With the turf season officially concluded, all races today will be contested on the main dirt track. The card is headlined by the dominant barn of Brittany Russell and the high-percentage riding of her husband, Sheldon Russell, along with Jamie Ness’s powerful stable, which has entries in multiple key spots.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast: Sunday will be chilly and crisp, with temperatures ranging from a high of 49°F to a low of 28°F. Skies are expected to be overcast with a chance of late sprinkles, but likely dry during racing hours. Winds will be light, around 5-10 mph.
Track Condition: The main track is expected to be Fast. The surface has been draining well during the current meet, and the cold temperatures will tighten the track, potentially favoring speed slightly more than usual.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Main Track (Dirt):
- Wide Configuration: Laurel’s one-mile oval is wide with sweeping turns, generally allowing for fair racing where closers can make up ground.
- Outside Post Advantage: Recent trends for the November meet have shown a surprising advantage for outside posts (7+) in both sprints and routes. The wide turns allow horses in the clear to maintain momentum, while inside horses can sometimes get buried or shuffled back if they don’t break sharply.
- Sprint Bias: In 6-furlong sprints, speed is always dangerous, but the track has not been a pure “speedway.” Stalkers sitting just off the pace in the clear (paths 3-4) often get the best trips.
- Route Bias: In two-turn races (1 1/16 miles), the start is close to the first turn, making inside post position more important for saving ground, though the recent “outside momentum” bias still applies for horses that can clear the field.
Race 1
Post Time: 12:00 PM EST
Distance: 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Grade: Claiming $12,500 (N/W2L)
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario here is moderate to fast. **#1 Ellingerhowed blazing speed last time out and nearly wired the field at huge odds. He will likely be sent hard from the rail. #2 World On Fire and #4 Oleg also possess early foot and will ensure the rail runner doesn’t get an easy lead. If they duel, it could set up for a stalker/closer.
Key Contenders
#1 Ellinger (5-1): He ran a massive race on November 14, leading until deep stretch before getting caught. If he can clear the field or sit just inside of the pressure, he is a major threat to steal this wire-to-wire.
#7 Real Talented (4-1): Broke his maiden convincingly last time out, taking advantage of a soft pace. He is the only horse in the field with two recent speed figures in the 70s, suggesting he is in the best form of his life. The outside post fits the current track profile.
#4 Oleg (3-1): A consistent runner who should be right in the mix early. He battles hard and fits this class level well, though he often settles for minor awards.
Secondary Choices
**#8 New York Strong (6): Draws the favorable outside post. He has tactical speed and could get a perfect trip stalking the leaders in the clear.
#6 Chase a Dream (12-1): A longshot who could pick up the pieces if the pace meltdown occurs, though he needs to improve significantly on speed figures.
Betting Strategy
The rail horse is the speed of the speed, but he will be pressured. Real Talented looks like the most logical winner given his recent form cycle. A Win bet on #7 and an Exacta box 1-7 is a solid play.
Selections
Win: 7 (Real Talented)
Place: 1 (Ellinger)
Show: 4 (Oleg)
Race 2
Post Time: 12:28 PM EST
Distance: 1 Mile (Dirt)
Grade: Claiming $12,500 (N/W2L)
Pace Analysis
#1 Repeatingofcourse stretching out to a mile is the primary pace factor. He showed speed in a sprint last time and should be on the engine or sitting pocket. #6 Maupansant also has tactical speed and will likely press from the outside.
Key Contenders
#1 Repeatingofcourse (8-5): The heavy morning line favorite looks formidable. He handled the stretch-out well last time, holding second after showing speed. Trainer Horacio De Paz is hitting at a high clip, and this spot seems chosen specifically to get this horse a win.
#2 Twice Gold (5-2): A consistent grinder who fits well at this level. He rarely runs a bad race and figures to be the main danger coming from just off the pace.
#7 Real Talented: Note: Listed in Race 1 analysis but also appears in some data feeds for Race 2. Assuming he runs in Race 1 based on Race 1 analysis above. If he scratches there and runs here, he is a contender, but we will focus on #6 Maupansant.
#6 Maupansant (9-2): Comes out of sprints and stretches out. His pedigree suggests the mile shouldn’t be an issue, and he gets a positive rider switch to Kevin Gomez.
Secondary Choices
#3 White Blue (10-1): Recent form is muddy, but at a price, he could clunk up for a share if the race falls apart.
Betting Strategy
Repeatingofcourse looks like a potential “single” in horizontal wagers. He has the speed, the pedigree, and the connections. Don’t overthink it.
Selections
Win: 1 (Repeatingofcourse)
Place: 2 (Twice Gold)
Show: 6 (Maupansant)
Race 3
Post Time: 12:56 PM EST
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)
Grade: Starter Optional Claiming
Pace Analysis
#3 Rowsie Express is a confirmed front-runner coming off a gate-to-wire victory. She will likely try to replicate that effort. #5 Bay Street and #2 Pam Pam have enough tactical speed to keep her honest, preventing a total theft.
Key Contenders
#3 Rowsie Express (5-2): In peak form with two wins in her last three starts. When she gets the lead comfortably, she is very dangerous. The primary question is if she can hold off the closers at this longer distance if pressured early.
**#6 Solving Progress8-1): The “wise guy” horse of the race. She made a massive move from far back last time to just miss. Now switching back to dirt (where she has back class) and likely sitting closer to the pace, she offers huge value.
#2 Pam Pam (2-1): Jamie Ness trainee who is always dangerous. She has the versatility to stalk and pounce, which might be the winning trip if Rowsie Express is sent too hard.
Betting Strategy
Solving Progress at 8-1 or higher is a fantastic value bet. The surface switch and improving form cycle signal a big effort.
Selections
Win: 6 (Solving Progress)
Place: 3 (Rowsie Express)
Show: 2 (Pam Pam)
Race 4
Post Time: 01:25 PM EST
Distance: 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Grade: Allowance (MD-Restricted)
Pace Analysis
#1 Wickeddivine and #7 All the Hardways provide the bookend speed. The pace should be honest, setting up well for a horse that can stalk.
Key Contenders
**#Great Heavens (9-2): The “bridesmaid” of the field with three consecutive second-place finishes. He is knocking on the door and faces a field he fits perfectly with. However, his lack of “winning instinct” (2 wins in 13 tries at this distance) makes him a vulnerable favorite.
#3 Change My World (5-1): Rallied to be third behind Great Heavens last time. He has been steadily improving all season and might have more upside than the favorite.
#7 All the Hardways (8-1): Cutting back from a route to a sprint. His speed figure of 91 two starts back at this distance is the highest last-out number in the field. If he runs back to that, he wins.
Betting Strategy
Take a shot against the chronic runner-up #4. All the Hardways offers great value on the cutback angle.
Selections
Win: 7 (All the Hardways)
Place: 4 (Great Heavens)
Show: 3 (Change My World)
Race 5
Post Time: 01:54 PM EST
Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
Grade: Maiden Claiming $16,000
Pace Analysis
A field of 2-year-olds usually guarantees chaos and speed. #1 Sugar On Fire and #8 Gonzalo look like the primary speed elements.
Key Contenders
#5 Hoppetosse (2-1): Burned money as the favorite last time but had a legitimate excuse (wide trip). Two starts back, he ran a competitive race at Timonium. If he gets a clean trip, he is the horse to beat.
#8 Gonzalo (4-1): Ran a career-best figure last time out while finishing third. The outside post is perfect for a young horse to stay out of trouble and make a clear run.
#4 Flying to Work (5-1): First-time starter for Anthony Farrior. Farrior is excellent with debut runners in claiming spots, and this colt has a “win-early” pedigree.
Betting Strategy
Hoppetosse deserves one more chance to prove the last race was a fluke. Use Gonzalo as the main danger.
Selections
Win: 5 (Hoppetosse)
Place: 8 (Gonzalo)
Show: 4 (Flying to Work)
Race 6
Post Time: 02:23 PM EST
Distance: 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Grade: Maiden Claiming $12,500
Pace Analysis
#8 Superlastingsecret showed good speed off the layoff last time and faded late. With that tightener under his belt, he should carry his speed further today.
Key Contenders
**#8 Superlastingsecret3-1): The one to catch. He drifted out late in his last race, costing him the win, but that was likely due to fatigue. He should be tighter today.
#1 Gaelicheartofgold (5-1): improved significantly on turf at Meadowlands and now drops to a career-low class level on dirt. If the form transfers, he is a major player.
#10 Knucker Punk (10-1): A sleeper pick. He stopped badly going a mile but cuts back to a sprint where he has run well before. First-time Lasix is a potent angle.
Betting Strategy
Superlastingsecret is the most likely winner, but Knucker Punk is an interesting bomb for exotics.
Selections
Win: 8 (Superlastingsecret)
Place: 1 (Gaelicheartofgold)
Show: 10 (Knucker Punk)
Race 7
Post Time: 02:53 PM EST
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)
Grade: Allowance Optional Claiming
Pace Analysis
#1 Le Gris and #4 Magical Ways will likely dispute the early lead. #2 Omaha Omaha can also show speed. A contested pace will help the closers.
Key Contenders
#1 Le Gris (9-2): Rudy Rodriguez shipper from New York. He ran a huge 95 Beyer speed figure three starts back at Saratoga. That number crushes this field. Even his “off” races are better than most of these.
#5 Pirate (4-1): Jamie Ness trainee who has been consistent. He will be stalking the pace and gets the first jump on the closers.
** Magical Ways (2-1): The likely favorite, but he will have to work hard to clear Le Gris.
Betting Strategy
Le Gris is the class of the field. At 9-2, he is the bet of the day if he stays anywhere near his morning line.
Selections
Win: 1 (Le Gris)
Place: 5 (Pirate)
Show: 4 (Magical Ways)
Race 8
Post Time: 03:23 PM EST
Distance: 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Grade: Allowance Optional Claiming
Pace Analysis
#4 Happy Clouds is a need-the-lead type. #1 Braganza also has speed from the rail. The pace will be hot.
Key Contenders
**#3 Conquerthosewecan3-1): Brittany Russell trainee ridden by Sheldon Russell. She has speed but can rate. This versatility is key in a race loaded with one-dimensional speed.
#7 I’m a Cutie Pie (7-2): Steps up in class after beating softer fields, but her winning form is undeniable. She knows how to find the wire.
#2 Goodnightngodbless (4-1): A closer who will benefit if the leaders scorch each other.
Betting Strategy
Trust the Brittany Russell/Sheldon Russell connection here. Conquerthosewecan sits the perfect trip.
Selections
Win: 3 (Conquerthosewecan)
Place: 7 (I’m a Cutie Pie)
Show: 2 (Goodnightngodbless)
Race 9
Post Time: 03:53 PM EST
Distance: 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Grade: Claiming $40,000
Pace Analysis
#2 Itsamonstamash has great tactical speed and can dictate terms. #1 Spencer Tiara also showed speed off the layoff and should be tighter.
Key Contenders
#2 Itsamonstamash (4-1): Won convincingly last time out with a perfect stalking trip. She looks poised to repeat that effort.
#8 Nancy Mary (6-1): Closed well to be second behind the top pick last time. The outside post helps her late running style, ensuring she doesn’t get trapped.
#7 Obliging (6-1): “Horse to follow” from the notebook. She had a troubled trip on turf last time but ran well on dirt prior to that. Look for a bounce-back effort at a price.
Betting Strategy
An Exacta Box 2-7-8 covers the logical contenders and the live longshot.
Selections
Win: 2 (Itsamonstamash)
Place: 8 (Nancy Mary)
Show: 7 (Obliging)
Jockey and Trainer Notes
Brittany Russell (Trainer): Dominating the meet with a 33% win rate. When she teams up with her husband, jockey Sheldon Russell, the win percentage is even higher. Any entry of theirs must be respected.
Jamie Ness (Trainer): The clear second-best barn at the track. Ness excels with claiming horses and dirt routers. Watch for his entries in Race 3 and Race 7.
Yedsit Hazlewood (Jockey): Riding in excellent form and is currently second in the standings. He often gets good prices on live mounts.
Best Wagering Strategies & Value Plays
Best Bet: Race 2, #1 Repeatingofcourse. Looks singular in ability and placement.
Best Value: Race 3, #6 Solving Progress (8-1). A massive class and surface switch angle that the public may overlook.
Best Longshot: Race 6, #10 Knucker Punk (10-1). First Lasix and a distance cutback are a potent recipe for a wakeup call.
Suggested Late Pick 4 (Races 6-9):
R6: 1, 8, 10
R7: 1, 4, 5
R8: 3, 7
R9: 2, 7, 8
Cost for $0.50 ticket: $27.00
