Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
The Los Alamitos daytime thoroughbred meet continues this Sunday with a 10-race card headlined by the $100,000 King Glorious Stakes for 2-year-old California-breds. The program features a mix of maiden claiming, claiming, and allowance events, offering competitive fields and several opportunities for value. The King Glorious Stakes (Race 10) serves as the feature event, drawing a field of eight juveniles stretching out to one mile on the main track. Post time for the first race is 12:00 PM.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Cypress, California, calls for clear skies and sunshine with temperatures reaching the mid-60s to low-70s. The main dirt track is expected to be fast. Humidity levels will be comfortable, and wind should not be a significant factor. Given the dry conditions leading up to the race day, the surface should be firm and consistent.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
The Los Alamitos one-mile dirt oval generally plays fair, but specific trends often emerge during these short meets.
Speed Bias: In sprint races (5 1/2 and 6 furlongs), early speed is typically an asset. Horses that can clear the field or secure a tactical stalking position near the lead often hold an advantage, especially given the long stretch run which can be daunting for deep closers if the pace is moderate.
Post Position: Inside posts (1-3) tend to perform well in sprints, allowing horses to save ground around the turn. For route races (1 mile), the configuration with the short run to the first turn can make outside posts slightly disadvantageous unless the horse possesses enough tactical speed to cross over and save ground before the clubhouse turn.
Race 1 Analysis
Post Time: 12:00 PM
Distance: 1 Mile Dirt
Grade: Maiden Claiming $20,000
Pace Analysis
The pace in this one-mile event for fillies and mares appears moderate. Eastwick and Moonlit Courage show enough tactical speed to be forwardly placed. With a small field of six, the early fractions should not be blistering, potentially favoring those who can stay close to the front.
Key Contenders
Eastwick arrives as the one to beat. The Craig Dollase trainee has shown consistency and finds a soft spot here. Her speed figures fit well against this group, and the move to the mile distance should be within her scope.
Moonlit Courage represents the class of the field, dropping significantly from maiden special weight company to the $20,000 claiming level. Trained by Richard Mandella, this aggressive drop is often a “win or move on” signal. While her recent form shows some dull efforts, this level of competition is far weaker than what she has faced at Del Mar and Santa Anita.
Secondary Choices
Greta’s Ghost has been knocking on the door and fits well at this level. She should be in the mix late and offers a reliable alternative if the top two falter.
Longshots
Gemadini returns from a layoff for Doug O’Neill. While the break is a concern, O’Neill is capable of having them ready off the bench. At expected odds of 6-1 or higher, she is a usable piece in vertical wagers.
Betting Strategy
The race likely goes through Eastwick and Moonlit Courage. A win bet on Eastwick is the logical play, but utilizing Moonlit Courage in exactas is prudent given the class drop.
Selections
Win: Eastwick
Place: Moonlit Courage
Show: Greta’s Ghost
Race 2 Analysis
Post Time: 12:30 PM
Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt
Grade: Claiming $16,000
Pace Analysis
This 6-furlong sprint features plenty of early zip. Man Child and Player B both possess high cruising speed and should ensure an honest pace. Night Time, the veteran, will likely look to stalk from a mid-pack position.
Key Contenders
Man Child is the morning line favorite and strictly the one to beat. He has the speed to clear or sit just off the lead and has been in good form.
Player B is a dangerous rival who matches up well on speed figures. He should be right there at the finish.
Secondary Choices
Night Time is a classy 8-year-old veteran who knows how to win. While he may have lost a step of pure speed, his back class and ability to close make him a threat if the pace heats up too much up front.
Longshots
Zombo Bombo and Manitowish offer some value for the bottom of trifectas and superfectas but would need a career-best effort to topple the top trio.
Betting Strategy
Focus on the top two, Man Child and Player B. An exacta box is a solid approach.
Selections
Win: Man Child
Place: Player B
Show: Night Time
Race 3 Analysis
Post Time: 1:00 PM
Distance: 1 Mile Dirt
Grade: Allowance Optional Claiming
Pace Analysis
Mayacama is expected to control the pace or sit very close. The small field dynamics favor horses with tactical speed who don’t have to navigate traffic.
Key Contenders
Mayacama is the standout here. Trained by Jeff Mullins and ridden by Juan Hernandez, she has been facing tougher company and looks poised to dominate this group. Her speed figures are superior to her rivals.
Hey Demps is the logical alternative. She has been consistent and should pick up the pieces if the favorite has an off day.
Secondary Choices
She’s a Joker brings experience and fits the conditions well. She usually gives an honest effort and is a likely candidate for the minor awards.
Betting Strategy
Mayacama will be a very short price. Singling her in multi-race wagers is the best strategy.
Selections
Win: Mayacama
Place: Hey Demps
Show: She’s a Joker
Race 4 Analysis
Post Time: 1:30 PM
Distance: 7 Furlongs Dirt
Grade: Claiming $32,000
Pace Analysis
This 7-furlong test should see Baladi and Gypsy Tears vying for early position. The extended sprint distance tests both speed and stamina, often favoring horses cutting back from a mile or true sprinters stretching out who can relax.
Key Contenders
Baladi looks best on paper. He has the tactical speed to handle the distance and comes from the Craig Dollase barn which is having a solid meet.
So I’m Told is a consistent runner at this level and should be finishing strongly.
Secondary Choices
Gypsy Tears has speed but can be inconsistent. If he gets loose on the lead, he could be dangerous, but he faces pressure here.
Longshots
Coach Cronin and Otro Mas are capable of filling out the exotics at a price.
Betting Strategy
Baladi is the most likely winner, but So I’m Told offers better value.
Selections
Win: Baladi
Place: So I’m Told
Show: Gypsy Tears
Race 5 Analysis
Post Time: 2:00 PM
Distance: 1 Mile Dirt
Grade: Maiden Claiming $20,000 (2YO Fillies)
Pace Analysis
A field of 2-year-old fillies going a mile often results in a chaotic pace. Many of these are stretching out for the first time. Remember April and Big Coin appear to have the most early initiative.
Key Contenders
Remember April (Tim Yakteen) and Big Coin (Rafael DeLeon) look like the main players. Remember April has shown flashes of ability that suggest she can handle this company.
Big Coin has run competitive races and finds a winnable spot.
Secondary Choices
Rumpus in Paradise and Aguila Azul are wildcards. In a field of inexperienced juveniles, improvement can come suddenly.
Betting Strategy
Tread lightly with 2-year-old maiden claimers at a mile. Box the top picks.
Selections
Win: Remember April
Place: Big Coin
Show: Rumpus in Paradise
Race 6 Analysis
Post Time: 2:30 PM
Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Grade: Allowance Optional Claiming
Pace Analysis
Chai and Emirates Affair are key speed influences. The pace should be honest.
Key Contenders
Emirates Affair (Robert B. Hess Jr.) is a seasoned mare who fits these conditions perfectly. She has the class to beat this group.
Stay in Line is a consistent mare who rarely runs a bad race. She should be closing late.
Secondary Choices
Chai, the other Hess runner, has speed but might face pressure.
Tequilaandtherapy gets a weight break and could be a factor.
Betting Strategy
Emirates Affair is the solid choice.
Selections
Win: Emirates Affair
Place: Stay in Line
Show: Chai
Race 7 Analysis
Post Time: 3:00 PM
Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt
Grade: Maiden Claiming $50,000
Pace Analysis
B Grayson and Road Rules show speed. This is a competitive maiden claiming sprint where the start will be crucial.
Key Contenders
B Grayson has shown good early foot and should be on or near the lead throughout.
P Town Prancer (Doug O’Neill) drops in class and adds Juan Hernandez, a lethal combination.
Secondary Choices
Road Rules (John Sadler) is another dropper who deserves respect. The Sadler barn is dangerous with these types.
Betting Strategy
P Town Prancer offers good value with the jockey switch.
Selections
Win: P Town Prancer
Place: B Grayson
Show: Road Rules
Race 8 Analysis
Post Time: 3:30 PM
Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Grade: Starter Allowance
Pace Analysis
A sprint for fillies and mares. Uffda and Ready Jet Go figure to be prominent early.
Key Contenders
Uffda has been in good form and has the speed to win this.
Ready Jet Go is a veteran mare who loves this track and distance.
Secondary Choices
Lady Laoban is a closer who would benefit from a pace meltdown.
Betting Strategy
Uffda is the speed of the speed.
Selections
Win: Uffda
Place: Ready Jet Go
Show: Lady Laoban
Race 9 Analysis
Post Time: 4:00 PM
Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Grade: Maiden Claiming $30,000 (2YO)
Pace Analysis
Another juvenile sprint. Old Timer and Flamingo Star appear to be the quickest early.
Key Contenders
Old Timer (Craig Dollase) looks ready to graduate against this group.
Flamingo Star has shown some promise and gets Kazushi Kimura.
Secondary Choices
Trail Blaze and Jimmy Delivers are playable underneath.
Betting Strategy
Old Timer to win.
Selections
Win: Old Timer
Place: Flamingo Star
Show: Trail Blaze
Race 10 Analysis – King Glorious Stakes
Post Time: 4:30 PM
Distance: 1 Mile Dirt
Grade: Stakes ($100,000)
Pace Analysis
Tommy Norris (Blinkers ON) is expected to show more aggression and could try to wire the field or sit very close. Smoovin Saturday also has tactical speed. The pace should be moderate, giving the front-runners a chance to stay involved, but the class of the closers will be a major factor.
Key Contenders
Can’t Help Myself is the clear horse to beat. Trained by John Sadler and ridden by Hector Berrios, he finished third in the Golden State Juvenile and faces easier company here. Sadler hits at a high rate with dirt route runners (over 25%), and this horse has already proven he can compete at a higher level.
Pavlovian (Doug O’Neill) stumbled and lost the rider in the Golden State Juvenile. Ignoring that line, his prior form is solid, and he removes blinkers today, which could help him settle.
Secondary Choices
Smoovin Saturday defeated Mo Holland Drive previously and has shown ability. He should be in the mix.
Tommy Norris is the interesting longshot. The addition of blinkers and the stretch out to a mile for trainer Librado Barocio (who has good stats with dirt routers) makes him a dangerous threat on the lead.
Longshots
Mo Holland Drive is a talented horse but his best work has been on turf. The switch to dirt is a significant question mark, making him a vulnerable contender at short odds.
Betting Strategy
Key Can’t Help Myself on top of trifectas. Use Tommy Norris as a value horse in the exotics.
Selections
Win: Can’t Help Myself
Place: Pavlovian
Show: Tommy Norris
Jockey Notes and Insights
- Juan Hernandez: Rides Mayacama (Race 3), P Town Prancer (Race 7), and John Metcalfe (Race 10). He is the dominant rider on the circuit and his presence on P Town Prancer is a major positive signal.
- Hector Berrios: Teams up with John Sadler on Can’t Help Myself (Race 10). This combination is deadly in stakes races.
- Edwin Maldonado: Known for his aggressive gate speed, his ride on Tommy Norris (Race 10) suggests they will send hard from the gate.
- Kazushi Kimura: Rides Moonlit Courage (Race 1) and Flamingo Star (Race 9). He is an excellent tactical rider who can get the most out of closers and stalkers.
Trainer Notes and Insights
- John Sadler: His runners in dirt routes are always dangerous. Can’t Help Myself (Race 10) fits his preferred profile of a class horse stretching out or maintaining distance against restricted company.
- Richard Mandella: The drop of Moonlit Courage (Race 1) to $20,000 claiming is extreme for this barn. It usually indicates the horse is being moved along, but in this weak field, it makes her a formidable opponent on class alone.
- Doug O’Neill: Has several live runners including Gemadini (Race 1) and Pavlovian (Race 10). O’Neill is excellent at spotting horses in claiming races where they can be competitive immediately.
- Librado Barocio: A trainer to watch with routers. His move to put blinkers on Tommy Norris (Race 10) signals maximum intent.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bet: Mayacama (Race 3). She appears to have a significant class and speed figure edge over the field.
Best Value: P Town Prancer (Race 7). The combination of the class drop and the addition of Juan Hernandez makes this horse a prime candidate to outrun his odds.
Longshot Play: Tommy Norris (Race 10). At 12-1 or higher, he is the speed of the race with blinkers on and could steal it if the favorite falters.
Pick 4 Strategy (Races 7-10):
- Race 7: 1, 2, 6
- Race 8: 1, 4, 5
- Race 9: 1, 5
- Race 10: 3 (Can’t Help Myself)
- Alternative Ticket: Include 5 (Tommy Norris) and 6 (Pavlovian) in Race 10 for coverage.
