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Mahoning Valley Race Course presents a nine-race Monday card featuring mixed conditions with a focus on claiming and maiden events. The program includes four claiming races, two maiden claiming events, two allowance races, and one special weight race. Purse structures range from $12,200 to $33,700, with the ninth race offering the highest purse on the card. The Ohio-bred program maintains its presence throughout the card, with several races restricted to state-bred competitors.
Weather and Track Conditions
December 15 forecasts indicate very cold conditions with temperatures struggling to reach 38 degrees Fahrenheit for the high and dropping to 30 degrees overnight. The track surface should be listed as fast given the lack of precipitation in the immediate forecast, though the sealed winter surface will be tight and potentially favor early speed. Mahoning Valley features excellent drainage infrastructure with drainage stone beneath the racing surface, allowing conditions to improve quickly after precipitation. Winter tracks tend to be sealed tight during cold weather, significantly favoring horses with tactical speed who can establish forward positions without excessive early exertion.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Mahoning Valley exhibits a pronounced inside post bias, particularly in sprint races where posts one through four produce notably higher win percentages. The one-mile oval configuration features relatively tight turns with a 1,000-foot stretch, limiting closing opportunities and making early speed crucial for success. In six-furlong sprints, inside posts allow ground-saving trips through the turn while maintaining forward positioning for stretch drives. Posts one through three historically demonstrate the strongest winning percentages at sprint distances.
The track is banked at 3 percent in the stretches and 6 percent in the turns, a configuration that tends to favor early speed and tactical versatility. For route races at one mile and beyond, the inside bias remains relevant though somewhat diminished due to the longer run to the first turn allowing better positional adjustments. The sealed winter surface amplifies the speed bias, particularly when combined with cold temperatures. Horses with tactical speed who can secure forward positions without excessive energy expenditure hold significant advantages.
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming – 1 Mile Dirt
Post Time: 12:15PM
Pace Analysis
The one-mile maiden claiming event projects to feature moderate early pressure with Santorini and Bustin Boulders showing tactical speed. The distance allows for more tactical adjustments than sprint races, somewhat mitigating the inside post bias. However, horses drawn outside still face challenges establishing position before the first turn. The projected pace should be reasonable, allowing stalkers to remain close enough to strike in the stretch.
Key Contenders
Santorini gets a positive rider switch to Cedillo and moves back to dirt after a failed turf experiment. The horse has early tactical speed and gets a favorable outside draw that allows for forward positioning without inside traffic. Trainer Lopez maintains solid statistics with this type. Bustin Boulders ships in from Thistledown with recent form that fits this level. The horse shows tactical speed and gets a favorable post position. Weatherly has been riding well and the Musarro barn can pop with live runners. Briarcliff makes the second start off the layoff for the Ramgeet connections. The horse showed improved speed in the last start and the inside post allows for a ground-saving trip.
Secondary Choices
Sligotime drops in class after failing at higher levels. The inside post helps but the horse needs to show improved form to contend with these. Maravich makes the second start for the Szczepanski barn and could improve with the Lasix addition. The outside post provides tactical options. Lookin Like Lucky makes the first start for the Langley barn and gets Lasix. The tactical unknown and outside post present challenges but the price will be attractive.
Longshots
None of the longshots appear particularly appealing given the competitive nature of the race.
Selections
Win: Santorini
Place: Bustin Boulders
Show: Briarcliff
Race 2 – Claiming – 1 Mile 70Y Dirt
Post Time: 12:43PM
Pace Analysis
The one-mile seventy-yard claiming event features Indian Fever and Sammy’s Smile as the primary early speed horses. The distance allows for tactical adjustments, though the sealed surface still favors forwardly placed runners. The projected pace appears honest without being suicidal, potentially setting up for sustained drives from the half-mile pole.
Key Contenders
Indian Fever possesses the tactical speed to secure forward position from the inside post. The Bowen rider-trainer combination has been effective at this meeting. The horse drops in class and fits competitively at this level. Sammy’s Smile returns to Mahoning Valley after a failed experiment at higher levels. The six-year-old gelding finds his best form over this track and should secure forward positioning. Into Gold makes the second start off the layoff for the Mahan barn and gets a rider upgrade to Batista. The horse has been competitive at this level historically.
Secondary Choices
Relish the Ride cuts back in distance after failing at longer routes. The Radosevich connections know how to place their horses effectively. Need to Know Basis makes the second start for the Treharne barn and could improve with the cutback in distance. Gone in a Flash drops in class and should be competitive at this level despite the outside post.
Longshots
Mr Loooch would need significant improvement to factor in this spot.
Selections
Win: Indian Fever
Place: Sammy’s Smile
Show: Into Gold
Race 3 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time: 01:11PM
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong sprint should feature contested early fractions with multiple speed types entered. Eastern Extension and Frame Up both possess tactical speed and should secure forward positions. The sprint distance heavily emphasizes early positioning, making the inside posts particularly valuable. The projected pace suggests honest but competitive early fractions that should set up well for horses who can secure forward positions while rating kindly.
Key Contenders
Quarantino finished a close second last time out and appears the one to beat. The recent form fits this level and the horse has shown consistency. Eastern Extension has been consistent in recent runs and possesses tactical speed from an inside post position. The Gonzalez rider-Huffman trainer combination is dangerous at this level. Frame Up won two back and should show early foot. The Diaz-Sullivan connections can be dangerous with well-meant runners.
Secondary Choices
Corman has been competitive at this level and gets a favorable post position. The Hamm barn knows how to have runners ready. J J Valentin comes from the Radosevich barn and could improve with the weight allowance. Paige Perfect drops in class and could factor with improved effort.
Longshots
No Authority would need significant improvement to be competitive in this spot.
Selections
Win: Quarantino
Place: Eastern Extension
Show: Frame Up
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time: 01:39PM
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong maiden claiming event for fillies and mares should develop with multiple speed types creating contested early fractions. Rivers Run Red and Mandavilla both possess tactical speed and should secure forward positions. The six-furlong distance heavily favors horses with early foot, particularly on the sealed winter surface. The projected pace suggests honest fractions that will test stamina in the final furlong.
Key Contenders
Rivers Run Red makes the second start for the Pappada barn after showing improved speed in the debut. The inside post allows for a ground-saving trip and the Bowen rider is having a productive meet. Mandavilla drops in class after failing at higher levels and returns to Mahoning Valley where the horse has run competitive races. The Vigil rider knows this track well. Play Ball Susie makes the second start and showed improvement in the last effort. The Parker rider-Urieta trainer combination can be effective at this level.
Secondary Choices
Destiny’s Tot cuts back in distance after failing at longer routes and gets Lasix for the first time. The Romero barn can improve horses with medication additions. Dianna’s Lady makes the second start for the Bernardini barn and could improve with experience. Justworthashot drops in class for the Juarez-Mendoza barn and should be competitive at this level.
Longshots
Dollar Dance would need to improve significantly to factor in this spot.
Selections
Win: Rivers Run Red
Place: Mandavilla
Show: Play Ball Susie
Race 5 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time: 02:07PM
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong claiming event for fillies and mares should develop with multiple speed types creating contested early fractions. Devoutly and Emerald Eyes both possess tactical speed and should secure forward positions. Collector Gold and Anotherwinner also show early foot. The projected pace suggests honest fractions that will test stamina in the final furlong, particularly given the competitive nature of the field.
Key Contenders
Devoutly makes the second start off the layoff and drops in class. The Rivera rider-Radosevich trainer combination is effective and the horse has tactical speed from an inside post. Emerald Eyes ships in from higher level competition and has been consistently competitive. The Tapara rider is having a strong meet. Total Smokeshow drops in class after showing good form at higher levels. The Hernandez rider-Norris trainer combination can be dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Anotherwinner makes the second start for the Zielinski barn and could improve with the cutback in distance. Collect Gold comes from the Radosevich barn and has shown tactical speed. Princess Em gets a significant weight allowance and has been competitive at this level. Watch Me Daddy makes the second start for the Cline barn and could improve.
Longshots
Oh Eye See would need to improve significantly to contend. Smartasset drops in class but has been inconsistent.
Selections
Win: Devoutly
Place: Emerald Eyes
Show: Total Smokeshow
Race 6 – Claiming – 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time: 02:35PM
Pace Analysis
The five-and-a-half-furlong sprint heavily favors early speed and inside posts. Bucket List and Zippin Gigi both possess tactical speed and should secure forward positions. The short distance minimizes closing opportunities and emphasizes the importance of the break. The projected pace appears contested but not suicidal, setting up for horses who can secure forward positions without excessive early exertion.
Key Contenders
Bucket List has tactical speed and gets a favorable post position. The Paucar rider-Mahan trainer combination is dangerous at this level. Midnight Rules has been competitive at this level and gets a rider switch to Terraza. The Martinez barn has been effective with sprinters. Back to Reality drops in class for the Bernardini barn and has tactical speed from the rail.
Secondary Choices
Zippin Gigi has been consistent at this level and should secure forward position. Classic King makes the third start off the layoff and could improve with conditioning. Blue Max drops in class and has tactical speed. Montauk Cove has been competitive at this level despite the advanced age.
Longshots
True Jedi would need to improve significantly to factor.
Selections
Win: Bucket List
Place: Midnight Rules
Show: Back to Reality
Race 7 – Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time: 03:03PM
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong sprint should feature contested early fractions with multiple speed types entered. Fivefive Six Champ and Colonel Vargo both possess tactical speed and should secure forward positions. Atkins and Priority Lane also show early speed. The projected pace suggests honest but competitive early fractions that should set up well for horses who can rate kindly while maintaining forward position.
Key Contenders
Thru the Vine drops in class after competing at higher levels. The Cedillo rider-Johnson trainer combination is effective and the horse has tactical speed. Priority Lane makes the second start off the layoff and drops in class. The Rivera rider-Joy trainer combination knows how to win at this level. Fivefive Six Champ has been consistently competitive at this level and possesses tactical speed. Atkins makes the second start for the Vecchio barn and could improve with the cutback.
Secondary Choices
Captivated Drama drops in class after failing at higher levels. The Barbaran rider-Joy trainer combination can be dangerous. Colonel Vargo has been competitive at this level and gets a favorable post position. Dropkick Murphy makes the first start for the Fletcher barn and could improve with the change of scenery.
Longshots
None of the longshots appear particularly appealing.
Selections
Win: Thru the Vine
Place: Priority Lane
Show: Fivefive Six Champ
Race 8 – Allowance – 6 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time: 03:31PM
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong allowance features multiple speed types that should create contested early fractions. Sprint Out Pass and Admiral Nelson both possess tactical speed and should secure forward positions. Video Evidence and Big Prankster also show early speed. The projected pace suggests honest fractions that will test class and stamina in the final furlong.
Key Contenders
Sprint Out Pass makes the second start off the layoff and drops in class. The Haldar rider-Martinez trainer combination is effective and the horse has tactical speed from an inside post. Video Evidence ships in from higher level competition and has tactical speed. The Negron rider-Mathes trainer combination can be dangerous at this level. Admiral Nelson makes the second start for the Castro barn and could improve with experience.
Secondary Choices
Big Prankster drops in class after showing good form at higher levels. The Rivera rider-Radosevich trainer combination knows how to win allowances. El Muchacho Alegre ships in from higher level competition and has shown tactical speed. Wings of God makes the second start for the Poole barn and could improve with the cutback in distance.
Longshots
Sneaky Sneaky would need to improve significantly to factor.
Selections
Win: Sprint Out Pass
Place: Video Evidence
Show: Admiral Nelson
Race 9 – Allowance – 1 Mile Dirt
Post Time: 03:59PM
Pace Analysis
The one-mile allowance event projects to feature moderate early pressure with Duo and Blue Blood Cowboy showing tactical speed. The distance allows for more tactical adjustments than sprint races. The projected pace should be reasonable, allowing stalkers to remain close enough to strike in the stretch. The class level appears competitive with multiple horses dropping in from higher levels.
Key Contenders
Mobil Mission drops in class after competing at higher levels. The Bracho rider-Radosevich trainer combination is highly effective and the horse has tactical speed from the rail. Duo ships in from higher level competition and has tactical versatility. The Chavez rider-Winters trainer combination can be dangerous. Blue Blood Cowboy makes the second start for the DaCosta barn and has shown improvement. The Salazar rider brings tactical awareness.
Secondary Choices
Truth N Soul cuts back in distance after failing at longer routes. The Radosevich connections know how to place their horses effectively. Jacobi drops in class for the Yoder barn and has tactical speed. Silver Is a Gift ships in from higher level competition and could improve with the change of scenery. Haley’s Dante makes the first start for the Fernandez barn and has shown tactical speed in workouts.
Longshots
Heidi N Seek would need to improve significantly to factor. P J’s Boy drops in class but faces a competitive field. Lucky’s Prize makes the third start off the layoff and could improve with conditioning.
Selections
Win: Mobil Mission
Place: Duo
Show: Blue Blood Cowboy
Jockey Notes and Insights
Cedillo and Rivera have been riding extremely well at this meeting and merit extra consideration in competitive races. The inside post bias at Mahoning Valley makes riders who can break quickly and secure forward position particularly valuable. Speed riders who can judge the pace effectively have significant advantages on the sealed winter surface.
Bowen has shown improvement in recent weeks and the rider knows how to rate speed horses effectively. Gonzalez has been effective with speed types and understands the importance of securing forward position from inside posts. Batista brings high-level experience and has been effective with the Mahan barn.
Young riders like Tapara and Bracho have been competitive and should not be overlooked in the wagering windows. Veteran riders like Diaz and Chavez understand the track configuration and know how to save ground through the tight turns.
Trainer Notes and Insights
The Radosevich barn has multiple entrants throughout the card and knows how to place horses effectively at this level. The barn shows particular strength with horses dropping in class and those with tactical speed. The Johnson barn has been effective with speed types and merits extra consideration in sprints.
The Meyers barn has been dangerous in claiming events and knows how to have horses ready off layoffs. The Huffman barn shows strength with shippers and horses adding Lasix. The Musarro barn can pop with live runners at attractive prices.
The Mahan barn has been effective with sprinters and merits extra consideration in the shortened five-and-a-half-furlong event. The Vecchio barn shows improvement with second-off-the-layoff runners and could surprise in the seventh race.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The inside post bias at Mahoning Valley creates significant opportunities throughout the card, particularly in sprint races. Horses drawn in posts one through four historically produce higher win percentages, especially in six-furlong races. Focus wagering strategies on horses with tactical speed who can secure forward positions from favorable draws.
Early speed horses drawn inside in sprints present the strongest wagering opportunities. The sealed winter surface amplifies this bias, making front-runners and pace pressers particularly dangerous. Closers require exceptional circumstances to win, needing either a hot pace or perfect trips from inside posts.
Multi-race wagers should emphasize consistency over explosion potential. The competitive nature of the fields suggests spreading in horizontal wagers while pressing with inside-speed types in vertical wagers. Daily Double and Pick Three sequences starting in early races with clear speed types present solid wagering opportunities.
Value plays include horses dropping in class with inside posts and tactical speed. The Radosevich barn merits particular attention as they have multiple well-meant entrants throughout the card. Shippers from higher-level tracks dropping into Mahoning Valley claiming events often provide value.
