Mahoning Valley – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for December 16, 2025

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Mahoning Valley presents a nine-race card on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, featuring a competitive mix of maiden, claiming, and allowance races with a strong emphasis on Ohio-bred horses. The first post is scheduled for 12:15 PM EST, with purses ranging from $12,200 to $36,200. The card showcases the competitive Ohio racing circuit with multiple trainers including Jeffrey Skerrett, Wesley Ward, and Eddie Kenneally fielding entries across several divisions.​

The racing program includes two maiden special weight events, five claiming races at various levels, and two allowance contests. Ohio-bred horses feature prominently throughout the card, with restricted races in multiple divisions offering enhanced purses through the Ohio Thoroughbred Race Fund. The competitive nature of the card creates numerous betting opportunities across vertical and horizontal wagers.​

Weather and Track Conditions

The weather forecast for December 16 calls for cold conditions with a high temperature of 37°F and a low of 22°F. These temperatures are typical for mid-December racing in northeast Ohio, with the track expected to maintain a sealed winter surface that favors early speed and inside post positions.​

The sealed winter surface at Mahoning Valley becomes particularly speed-favoring in cold weather, as the track tends to play faster and more compact. Horses with tactical speed who can secure forward positions without excessive early exertion hold significant advantages on this surface configuration. The cold temperatures may also impact horses shipping in from warmer climates, making locally-based runners particularly formidable.​

Track maintenance crews have been vigilant about track conditions throughout the meeting, with racing occasionally cancelled or delayed due to adverse weather. However, current forecasts suggest racing should proceed as scheduled with a fast or good track condition expected for the afternoon program.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Mahoning Valley exhibits a pronounced inside post bias, particularly in sprint races where posts one through four produce notably higher win percentages. The one-mile oval configuration features relatively tight turns with a 1,000-foot stretch, limiting closing opportunities and making early speed crucial for success.​

In six-furlong sprints, inside posts allow ground-saving trips through the turn while maintaining forward positioning for stretch drives. Posts one through three historically demonstrate the strongest winning percentages at sprint distances. The track is banked at 3 percent in the stretches and 6 percent in the turns, a configuration that tends to favor early speed and tactical versatility.​

For route races at one mile and beyond, the inside bias remains relevant though somewhat diminished due to the longer run to the first turn allowing better positional adjustments. The sealed winter surface amplifies the speed bias, particularly when combined with cold temperatures. Horses with tactical speed who can secure forward positions without excessive energy expenditure hold significant advantages throughout the afternoon program.​

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight – 2YO Fillies

Post Time: 12:15 PM EST

This six-furlong maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies offers a purse of $24,300. The eight-horse field features several first-time starters along with experienced fillies seeking their inaugural victory.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario appears moderate with several fillies showing tactical speed in their past performances. Making Daisys from the Wesley Ward barn should secure a forward position from post five, while horses drawn inside could contest the early lead. The maiden nature of the field creates some uncertainty in pace dynamics, but the six-furlong distance leaves little margin for error, making early positioning critical.

Key Contenders

Making Daisys represents elite trainer Wesley Ward and draws significant handicapper support despite limited racing experience. The Gun Runner filly ships in from Ward’s Kentucky base and has worked consistently for this assignment. Ward’s two-year-olds typically arrive fit and ready, and Walter Rodriguez’s presence in the irons signals serious intentions. The post five draw allows flexibility in tactics.​

Betsy trains with Eddie Kenneally and represents a quality operation with strong credentials. The filly brings experience from previous outings and should appreciate the class level. Yan Aviles rides with a tactical advantage from post three, allowing ground-saving positioning through the turn.​

Secondary Choices

Pam’s Friend draws post one with Jose Bracho aboard, giving her the rail advantage that has proven valuable at this meeting. Aaron West trains this filly who could benefit from the inside draw if she shows early speed.​

Daddy’s Lil Chef represents Kevin Buttigieg with Luis Antonio Gonzalez riding from post two. The filly adds depth to the pace scenario and could factor with improvement.

Longshots

Star Ella and Olive On Top appear on the scratch list and may not participate[user_query_card]. Far Reaching from Israel Acevedo’s barn with Luis Alberto Batista aboard offers value if the favorites underperform.

Selections

Win: Making Daisys
Place: Betsy
Show: Pam’s Friend

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight – Ohio Breds

Post Time: 12:43 PM EST

This six-furlong maiden special weight for Ohio-bred males three years old and upward offers a purse of $31,800. The restricted nature creates competitive balance among the eight-horse field.

Pace Analysis

Docs Legend should establish early positioning with his tactical speed, while Onirico could press from a stalking position. The pace appears contested but manageable, setting up well for horses who can secure favorable positions through the opening quarter. The sprint distance emphasizes tactical positioning over sustained speed.​

Key Contenders

Docs Legend draws significant support from handicappers after consistent placed efforts in higher-class races. Jay Bernardini trains this four-year-old gelding who has demonstrated ability against tougher competition. Erik Barbaran rides with confidence, and the post two draw provides tactical flexibility. The gelding’s experience advantage proves valuable in this maiden field.​

Onirico represents Richard Estvanko with Jose Bracho aboard from post one. The three-year-old gelding brings improved form and benefits from the inside post position that has proven advantageous throughout the meeting. Bracho’s strong recent riding form adds appeal to this contender.​

Secondary Choices

Lordbetwentothorns trains with Justin Radosevich and showed improvement in recent efforts. Yan Aviles provides tactical speed from post seven, though the outside draw presents challenges in securing position.​

Quality Kiss from Robert Cline’s barn with Victor Fernandez riding offers depth to the field. The gelding adds competition to the pace scenario.

Selections

Win: Docs Legend
Place: Onirico
Show: Lordbetwentothorns

Race 3: Ohio Bred Claiming – $10,000

Post Time: 1:11 PM EST

This six-furlong claiming race for Ohio-bred three-year-olds and upward offers a purse of $19,400 at the $10,000 claiming level. The NW2 conditions create competitive balance among the eight-horse field.

Pace Analysis

The sprint distance and claiming level suggest contested early fractions with multiple horses showing tactical speed. Hidden Heart and Weekend Retreat could press the pace early, while Ol’ Nelson possesses the versatility to stalk or engage. The honest pace should set up well for horses with combination speed who can secure favorable positions.​

Key Contenders

Ol’ Nelson receives strong consensus support from handicappers after improving recent efforts. Candace Huffman trains this three-year-old gelding who has shown versatility in running styles. Rocco Bowen rides with tactical awareness, and the post six draw allows options in the early stages. The gelding’s recent form suggests readiness to graduate at this level.​

Sgt York drops in class after recent setbacks and could benefit from the conditions. The gelding has demonstrated ability and should appreciate the softer competition. Luis Raul Rivera provides experienced handling from post two.​

Secondary Choices

Weekend Retreat brings course and distance form to the assignment. Saul Morales trains this gelding who has competed effectively at this level. Fernando Salazar Becerra rides from post three with tactical speed to secure position.​

Playfulasitgets represents Larry Smith with Angel Diaz aboard. The combination brings competitiveness to this claiming level.

Longshots

Moonshine Joe carries apprentice Joshua Radosevich with a seven-pound weight allowance, making him an interesting value play at expected long odds.

Selections

Win: Ol’ Nelson
Place: Sgt York
Show: Weekend Retreat

Race 4: Ohio Bred Claiming – $10,000

Post Time: 1:39 PM EST

This six-furlong claiming race for Ohio-bred three-year-olds and upward offers a purse of $19,400 at the $10,000 claiming level with NW2 conditions. The eight-horse field presents competitive balance.

Pace Analysis

Tap the Wind should establish early positioning with tactical speed, while He’s My Boy could press from a stalking position. The pace appears contested with multiple horses showing forward intentions. The sprint distance rewards horses who can secure favorable positions through the opening stages.​

Key Contenders

He’s My Boy drops in class after a strong second-place finish in recent efforts. Rodney Faulkner trains this three-year-old gelding who benefits from the class relief. Kirsten Swan provides handling from post six. The gelding’s recent form suggests readiness to capitalize on the class drop.​

Tap the Wind narrowly missed in recent efforts and appears ready to break through. Candace Huffman trains this five-year-old gelding with Luis Antonio Gonzalez aboard. The post three draw provides tactical advantage, and the gelding’s consistency makes him a logical contender.​

Secondary Choices

Couple Beers Deep receives support from handicappers after competitive efforts. Saul Morales trains this three-year-old gelding with Noel Vigil riding from post eight. The outside draw presents challenges, but the gelding brings tactical speed.​

Balki Bartokomous represents Shane Meyers with Alexander Crispin aboard. The three-year-old gelding adds depth from post four.

Selections

Win: He’s My Boy
Place: Tap the Wind
Show: Couple Beers Deep

Race 5: Claiming – $7,500 NW3

Post Time: 2:07 PM EST

This six-furlong claiming race for three-year-olds and upward offers a purse of $14,800 at the $7,500 claiming level with NW3 conditions. The nine-horse field creates competitive depth.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario suggests moderate early fractions with several horses showing tactical speed. Picaro and Golden Test could contest early positioning, while Cool Couple possesses versatility to secure a stalking position. The claiming level and sprint distance favor horses with combination speed.​

Key Contenders

Golden Test drops in class and receives strong support from handicappers. Jay Bernardini trains this three-year-old gelding who has competed at higher levels. Brandon Tapara provides tactical handling from post four. The class relief and favorable post position make this gelding a logical choice.​

Picaro narrowly missed in recent efforts and appears ready to break through. Rey Juarez-Mendoza trains this three-year-old ridgling with strong recent form. Alexander Chavez rides with tactical awareness from post three.​

Secondary Choices

Cool Couple has demonstrated consistency at this level. Jason DaCosta trains this three-year-old gelding with Rocco Bowen aboard. The post two draw provides tactical advantage for this stalking type.​

Cacique Abarrio represents Jeffrey Skerrett with Yan Aviles riding. The four-year-old gelding brings experience to the assignment.

Longshots

Jackson’s Roar appears on the scratch list and may not participate[user_query_card]. Breeze the Bayou from Jeffrey Skerrett’s barn offers value at expected odds.

Selections

Win: Golden Test
Place: Picaro
Show: Cool Couple

Race 6: Claiming – $5,000 NW3 Fillies/Mares

Post Time: 2:35 PM EST

This six-furlong claiming race for fillies and mares offers a purse of $12,200 at the $5,000 claiming level with NW3 conditions. The nine-horse field presents competitive balance at the bottom claiming level.

Pace Analysis

The pace appears contested with several fillies showing early speed intentions. Style in Time and Gamble On Love could engage early, while the claiming level suggests honest fractions. The sprint distance rewards horses who can secure favorable positions without excessive early exertion.​

Key Contenders

Style in Time receives support after consistent recent efforts. Nicole Higham trains this three-year-old filly with Alexander Chavez aboard. The post three draw provides tactical advantage on the inside, and the filly’s recent form suggests competitiveness at this level.​

Gamble On Love represents Kevin Buttigieg with Angel Diaz riding from post one. The three-year-old filly benefits from the rail position and Diaz’s tactical awareness. The inside draw proves particularly valuable in sprint races.​

Secondary Choices

Kate Wins from Manuel Vlaun’s barn with Yan Aviles aboard brings competitive form. The three-year-old filly has earned solid purse money and should factor in the outcome.

Babe in the Woods represents Shane Spiess with Charle Oliveros riding. The four-year-old filly adds depth to the competitive field.

Longshots

Luna Llena and Miss Foxann appear on the scratch list and may not participate[user_query_card]. Huixtla from Marco Ccamaque’s barn offers value at expected long odds.

Selections

Win: Style in Time
Place: Gamble On Love
Show: Kate Wins

Race 7: Ohio Bred Claiming – $8,000 Fillies/Mares

Post Time: 3:03 PM EST

This six-furlong claiming race for Ohio-bred fillies and mares offers a purse of $21,500 at the $8,000 claiming level. The seven-horse field features quality state-bred distaffers.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario suggests moderate early fractions with Cowgirl Sara and La Rosa showing tactical speed. The Ohio-bred conditions and claiming level create competitive balance. The sprint distance favors fillies who can secure forward positions efficiently.​

Key Contenders

Hello Sweets receives strong support from handicappers after impressive recent form. Eddie Clouston trains this five-year-old mare with Luis Alberto Batista aboard. The post four draw provides flexibility, and Batista’s 800th career win milestone demonstrates his riding skill. The mare’s class and consistency make her a logical choice.​

Cowgirl Sara represents Rey Juarez-Mendoza with Angel Diaz riding from post one. The four-year-old filly benefits from the inside post advantage. Diaz’s tactical speed expertise proves valuable in securing favorable position.​

Secondary Choices

Beautiful Charade trains with Timothy Hamm and brings competitive form. Rocco Bowen provides experienced handling from post six. The four-year-old filly has demonstrated ability at this level.​

La Rosa from Justin Radosevich’s barn with Luis Antonio Gonzalez aboard offers depth. The six-year-old mare brings experience to the assignment.

Selections

Win: Hello Sweets
Place: Cowgirl Sara
Show: Beautiful Charade

Race 8: Ohio Bred Allowance NW4

Post Time: 3:31 PM EST

This six-furlong allowance for Ohio-bred three-year-olds and upward offers the richest purse on the card at $36,200. The seven-horse field features the best Ohio-breds competing at Mahoning Valley.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario suggests Fourdatesforhoco establishing early positioning with Wasabi Beach potentially pressing. The allowance conditions and quality of the field create competitive dynamics. The sprint distance rewards horses with tactical speed and class.​

Key Contenders

Fourdatesforhoco receives consensus support after a dominant eight-length victory in recent efforts. Craig Sweeting trains this three-year-old gelding by Tale of Ekati who has demonstrated superior class. Luis Alberto Batista provides confident handling from post seven. The gelding’s recent form and power ratings make him the horse to beat.​

Wasabi Beach impressed with a strong recent victory. Susan Anderson trains this three-year-old gelding with Jose Bracho aboard. The post five draw provides tactical positioning, and Bracho’s strong recent form adds appeal. The gelding represents the primary threat to the favorite.​

Secondary Choices

Blue Nomore has placed in all recent starts and brings consistency. Jennifer Tooley trains this four-year-old gelding with Yan Aviles riding from post one. The inside draw proves advantageous for this stalking type.​

Tempered Dream represents Richard Zielinski with Luis Raul Rivera aboard. The four-year-old gelding adds competitive depth from post three.

Longshots

Ghost of Londyn and Finally Friday offer value at expected odds if the favorites underperform.

Selections

Win: Fourdatesforhoco
Place: Wasabi Beach
Show: Blue Nomore

Race 9: Allowance NW2 Fillies/Mares

Post Time: 3:59 PM EST

This six-furlong allowance for fillies and mares three years old and upward offers a purse of $25,900. The ten-horse field features competitive distaffers seeking their second career victory.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario suggests moderate early fractions with Toastmaster and The Devil’s Dream showing tactical speed. The allowance conditions and large field create competitive dynamics throughout. The sprint distance rewards fillies with tactical speed and class.​

Key Contenders

Toastmaster receives strong support after a stakes victory in recent efforts. Timothy Hamm trains this three-year-old filly who has demonstrated superior class. Rocco Bowen provides experienced handling from post two. The filly’s stakes credentials and inside post position make her a logical favorite.​

Ashlee’s Ring finished second in a similar contest recently. Jay Bernardini trains this five-year-old mare with Erik Barbaran aboard. The post six draw allows tactical positioning, and the mare’s consistency proves valuable in competitive allowance fields.​

Secondary Choices

The Devil’s Dream brings consistent form from Gary Johnson’s barn. Mauro Cedillo provides experienced handling from post eight. The six-year-old mare has competed effectively at this level.​

Je Suis Rapide represents Julie Stansbury with Luis Negron riding. The six-year-old mare adds depth from post seven.

Longshots

Mizzen the Point from Paul Overholt’s barn with Jose Bracho aboard offers value at expected odds. Late Nite Lizzie and Sexarito provide longshot alternatives in the competitive field.​

Selections

Win: Toastmaster
Place: Ashlee’s Ring
Show: The Devil’s Dream

Jockey Notes and Insights

Jose Bracho demonstrates strong recent form with multiple victories in December, including wins on Ghostagain, Timeisgolden, and Liam’s Lass. The jockey’s tactical awareness and ability to judge pace prove valuable throughout the card. Bracho rides Making Daisys in the opener, Wasabi Beach in Race 8, and Mizzen the Point in the finale, providing opportunities across multiple races.​

Luis Alberto Batista achieved his 800th career win at Mahoning Valley in November 2025, demonstrating his consistency and skill at the track. The Panama-born rider excels with tactical speed types and understands the importance of securing forward position from inside posts. Batista’s mounts include Far Reaching, Luna Llena, Late Nite Lizzie, Hello Sweets, and Fourdatesforhoco, giving him quality opportunities throughout the program.​

Angel Diaz brings high-level experience and tactical speed expertise to his assignments. The veteran rider understands the track configuration and knows how to save ground through the tight turns. Diaz rides Olive On Top, Playfulasitgets, Gamble On Love, Cowgirl Sara, and Queenofthebuckeye, providing solid mount opportunities across multiple races.​

Yan Aviles demonstrates competence as an apprentice rider with improving recent form. The young rider benefits from working with quality trainers and understands tactical positioning. Aviles rides Betsy, Hidden Heart, Cacique Abarrio, Kate Wins, and Blue Nomore throughout the card.​

Luis Antonio Gonzalez brings experience to competitive fields with tactical awareness. The rider excels with speed types and understands early positioning dynamics. Gonzalez rides Daddy’s Lil Chef, Greewhiz, Tap the Wind, and La Rosa on the program.​

Rocco Bowen shows improvement in recent weeks and understands how to rate speed horses effectively. The rider knows how to judge pace and position horses for late runs. Bowen rides Ol’ Nelson, Cool Couple, Beautiful Charade, and Toastmaster, giving him quality mount opportunities.

Alexander Chavez demonstrates competitiveness with tactical types and brings consistency to his assignments. The rider understands track dynamics and positioning importance. Chavez rides Dynamic Victory, Picaro, Style in Time, and Cause of Love throughout the afternoon.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jeffrey Skerrett fields multiple entries throughout the card, demonstrating the depth of his Ohio-based operation. The trainer’s horses Agnello City, Hidden Heart, Cacique Abarrio, Breeze the Bayou, and Queenofthebuckeye compete across various claiming and allowance levels. Skerrett’s lifetime earnings exceed $3.9 million with an 11% win rate, reflecting consistent competitiveness.​

Wesley Ward ships Making Daisys from his Kentucky base for the maiden special weight. Ward ranks among elite trainers nationally with strong statistics at major tracks. His two-year-olds typically arrive fit and ready for competitive efforts. Ward’s presence signals serious intentions in the opener.​

Eddie Kenneally trains Betsy in the opening maiden race, bringing international experience to Ohio racing. The Irish-born trainer has developed successful operations at major tracks and understands juvenile development.​

Jay Bernardini operates a productive stable at Ohio tracks with multiple entries including Docs Legend, Golden Test, and Ashlee’s Ring. The trainer’s consistency with claiming and allowance horses proves valuable throughout the meeting.​

Timothy Hamm fields Beautiful Charade and Toastmaster, demonstrating strength in Ohio-bred racing. The trainer’s Blazing Meadows Farm operation dominates state-bred competitions with quality horses and consistent conditioning.​

Eddie Clouston trains Hello Sweets in Race 7, bringing competitive form to the Ohio-bred claiming division. The trainer understands state-bred conditions and prepares horses effectively for claiming competition.​

Craig Sweeting sends out Fourdatesforhoco in the featured eighth race after an impressive last-out victory. The trainer has developed this Tale of Ekati gelding progressively and appears to have him peaking at the right time.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The inside post bias at Mahoning Valley creates significant opportunities throughout the card, particularly in sprint races. Horses drawn in posts one through four historically produce higher win percentages, especially in six-furlong races. Focus wagering strategies on horses with tactical speed who can secure forward positions from favorable draws.​

The featured eighth race presents the strongest single-race betting opportunity with Fourdatesforhoco offering solid value after his dominant last-out victory. A win bet combined with exacta and trifecta coverage using Wasabi Beach and Blue Nomore provides multiple ways to cash with the top three choices. Consider using Fourdatesforhoco as a single in Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers beginning with Race 6 or Race 7.​

Daily double opportunities exist connecting races throughout the card. Making Daisys in Race 1 to Docs Legend in Race 2 provides potential value at combined odds. Similarly, Hello Sweets in Race 7 to Fourdatesforhoco in Race 8 creates an attractive daily double sequence with logical favorites.

The maiden races present challenges for traditional handicapping but offer value in multi-race wagers when using multiple horses. Spreading tickets in Races 1 and 2 while singling stronger races creates balanced Pick 3 and Pick 4 combinations. Late Pick 4 coverage beginning in Race 6 allows bettors to spread in the competitive claiming and allowance races while focusing on logical contenders.

Consider place and show wagering on key horses like Fourdatesforhoco in Race 8 and Toastmaster in Race 9 to reduce risk while maintaining solid returns on class standouts. The competitive nature of the claiming races creates opportunities for place and show betting on logical contenders at generous odds.

Exacta and trifecta boxes in competitive claiming races provide value when including logical contenders at various price points. Races 3, 4, 5, and 6 present opportunities to construct affordable boxes with horses offering tactical advantages from inside posts.

The Pick 5 beginning with Race 5 through Race 9 offers potential for significant returns when combining singles in the stronger races with spreads in competitive events. Using Golden Test and Hello Sweets as potential singles while spreading in Races 6 and 9 creates balanced ticket construction.

Vertical wagers including the Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 5 provide the best value on cards featuring competitive claiming and allowance races. The key involves identifying races where logical favorites present themselves while spreading appropriately in wide-open competitive events. Today’s card offers multiple opportunities for creative ticket construction balancing risk and reward.

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