Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Mahoning Valley presents a competitive 10-race card on Wednesday, December 17, 2025, featuring a diverse mix of allowance, claiming, and maiden races. The afternoon program begins at 12:15 PM EST and concludes at 4:27 PM EST with a total purse distribution exceeding $180,000 across all races. The card showcases Ohio-bred competitions in several races, highlighting the strength of regional breeding programs while also including open company events that attract broader competition.
The racing surface at Mahoning Valley remains in excellent condition during this mid-December meet. Track management has maintained consistent racing conditions despite the seasonal challenges, with today’s card expected to be contested over a fast or good main track. The one-mile oval configuration at Mahoning Valley features relatively tight turns with a 1,000-foot stretch, creating a layout that historically rewards tactical speed and favorable post positions. The track’s 3 percent banking in the stretches and 6 percent banking in the turns naturally favors horses with early speed and the ability to save ground through the turns.
Several notable scratches have occurred in the lead-up to today’s card. Sheltowees Bling was withdrawn from Race 1 by the veterinarian after previous cancellations. Memphis Cash Queen, originally entered in Race 3, was scratched by the stewards. Multiple other horses have been removed from various races due to veterinary concerns or stewards’ decisions, tightening several competitive fields and potentially creating value opportunities for astute handicappers.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather forecast for Youngstown, Ohio, and the Mahoning Valley racing facility calls for temperatures in the low 40s during the afternoon racing program. After experiencing temperatures near freezing earlier in the week, the region is trending toward milder conditions for December. Today’s conditions feature mostly cloudy skies with more clouds than sun expected during the afternoon hours, creating comfortable racing conditions for both horses and spectators.
The winter sealed surface at Mahoning Valley plays particularly fast during cold weather conditions. The track maintenance crews have been vigilant throughout the December meet, ensuring consistent racing surfaces despite occasional weather challenges. Cold temperatures tend to make the sealed surface more compact and faster, which historically amplifies the existing speed bias at the track.
No precipitation is expected during racing hours today, with the track anticipated to be listed as fast or good for the afternoon card. The stable weather pattern and lack of moisture should provide consistent racing conditions throughout the program. Wind conditions are expected to be moderate from the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph, which should not significantly impact racing conditions on the dirt oval.
The track’s winter configuration and current weather conditions favor horses with tactical speed who can establish favorable early positions without excessive energy expenditure. The sealed surface tends to play more kindly to speed horses during cold weather, making early positioning even more critical than during warmer months. Horses shipping in from warmer climates may face adjustment challenges to the colder conditions and faster winter surface.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Mahoning Valley exhibits one of the most pronounced inside post biases in North American racing, particularly in sprint races where posts one through four produce notably higher win percentages compared to outside posts. The one-mile oval configuration features relatively tight turns that limit closing opportunities and make early positioning crucial for success. Historical data consistently demonstrates that horses drawn in the first four post positions enjoy significant advantages, especially at sprint distances of six furlongs.
In six-furlong sprint races, inside posts allow horses to save ground through the turn while maintaining forward positioning for stretch drives. The track’s configuration means that horses breaking from outside posts must cover additional ground to secure favorable position before the first turn, often requiring excessive early energy expenditure. Posts one through three historically demonstrate the strongest winning percentages at sprint distances, with the bias diminishing gradually as the distance increases.
For route races at one mile and beyond, the inside bias remains relevant though somewhat diminished compared to sprint races. The longer run to the first turn in route races allows horses more time for positional adjustments, reducing but not eliminating the advantage of inside posts. However, tactical speed remains valuable even in routes, as horses that can secure forward positions without excessive early pressure hold distinct advantages on this configuration.
The sealed winter surface amplifies the existing speed bias at Mahoning Valley. The combination of cold temperatures and the track’s banking creates conditions that particularly favor early speed and tactical versatility. Horses with tactical speed who can secure forward positions and rate kindly hold significant advantages throughout today’s afternoon program. The 1,000-foot stretch limits the effectiveness of deep closers, making it essential for horses to be within striking distance by the quarter pole.
Track handicappers should weight inside post positions heavily when analyzing sprint races on today’s card. In claiming and allowance sprints, horses drawn in posts one through four deserve serious consideration, particularly when combined with early speed or stalking running styles. The post position bias becomes less pronounced but still relevant in route races, where tactical speed and the ability to secure favorable early position remain important factors for success.
Race 1
Post Time: 12:15 PM EST
Allowance for registered Ohio-bred two-year-olds that have never won two races. Six furlongs on the dirt with a purse of $33,700. This race restricted to Ohio-breds creates a competitive environment among regional juveniles still seeking their second career victory. The allowance conditions and weight allowances for non-winners since November 17 set up an intriguing contest among developing young horses.
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong sprint distance creates a pace scenario where early positioning proves critical. With a small field of six runners, the pace should be moderate rather than contested, allowing tactical types to settle into comfortable positions. Uno Noir from post two shows tactical speed and could establish an early advantage alongside Rico Suave from the advantageous post four position. The abbreviated field size reduces pace pressure, potentially setting up well for horses that can secure forward positions economically.
My Trooper from post three brings trainer Larry Smith’s expertise with tactical types and should factor into the early pace dynamics. The inside posts one through three hold distinct advantages in this sprint configuration, allowing ground-saving trips through the turn. The moderate pace scenario should allow multiple horses to remain competitive throughout, with the race likely decided in the final furlong based on class and finishing ability rather than pace dynamics.
Key Contenders
Rico Suave emerges as a primary contender from the Richard Zielinski barn with Victor Fernandez riding. The post four position provides tactical flexibility while remaining inside enough to save ground. This Ohio-bred gelding shows developing ability and benefits from the allowance conditions designed for horses still seeking their second victory. Zielinski’s skill with Ohio-bred juveniles and the favorable draw make Rico Suave dangerous in this spot.
Uno Noir trained by Joseph Poole draws post two with Jose Bracho aboard. Poole maintains a strong 20.76 percent strike rate at Mahoning Valley with 93 wins from 448 starts, demonstrating consistent success at this track. Bracho has been riding exceptionally well during the current meet with multiple victories in recent days. The combination of an inside post, hot jockey, and successful trainer creates a formidable package in this competitive allowance race.
My Trooper represents trainer Larry Smith with Angel Diaz riding from post three. Smith’s experience with tactical speed types makes this Ohio-bred gelding a legitimate threat. The rail-skimming post three position allows Diaz to employ flexible tactics while maintaining a ground-saving journey. Diaz’s experience at Mahoning Valley and understanding of the track configuration enhance this runner’s prospects in the competitive allowance field.
Secondary Choices
Estoico from trainer Marco Ibarra draws the outside post six with David Haldar riding. While the outside post presents challenges in sprint races at Mahoning Valley, Ibarra’s expertise and Haldar’s competence keep this Ohio-bred gelding in contention. Class and ability can overcome post position disadvantages, particularly in smaller fields where post position biases become less pronounced.
Ringthatbell from the Robert Cline barn draws post one with Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard. Cline maintains a 14 percent win rate at Mahoning Valley with 134 wins from 949 starts, demonstrating consistent competitiveness. The rail post provides maximum ground-saving opportunities, though it requires a clean break to avoid being shuffled back. Salazar Becerra’s regular presence at the track gives him familiarity with the configuration.
Sheltowees Bling has been scratched from this race by the veterinarian after previous cancellations, reducing the field to five runners and slightly altering pace dynamics.
Selections
Win: Rico Suave
Place: Uno Noir
Show: My Trooper
Race 2
Post Time: 12:43 PM EST
Claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward at the $5,000 claiming level. One mile and 70 yards on the dirt with a purse of $15,400. Non-winners of a race since November 17 receive a two-pound weight allowance. This claiming level attracts competitive fillies and mares seeking victory at the entry-level claiming ranks.
Pace Analysis
The extended distance of one mile and 70 yards allows more time for pace development compared to sprint races. Sacred Connection shows tactical speed and should establish early position from post two, while Beautiful Mandate from post four brings tactical versatility. The route distance reduces the importance of the post position bias slightly, as horses have more time to secure favorable position before the first turn.
Shieldmewithprayer from post six brings closing ability and should settle off the early pace. The projected moderate pace should allow stalkers and closers to remain within striking distance throughout the race. The extended distance favors horses with stamina and the ability to sustain their runs through the long stretch. Pace pressure appears moderate, setting up well for horses that can rate kindly while maintaining position.
Key Contenders
Shieldmewithprayer emerges as the top selection despite the outside post six assignment. This filly won her last start on December 4 by a commanding margin, demonstrating current sharp form. Trainer Saul Morales has this runner primed for another strong effort, and jockey Noel Vigil understands how to handle closers on this configuration. The recent victory provides crucial confidence, and the extended distance suits this filly’s running style. Morning line odds of 5/2 offer fair value for a horse in winning form.
Sacred Connection represents Lion Palm Racing Stable with Elijah Greenidge riding from post two. This filly has been placed in two of her last three starts, demonstrating consistent competitiveness at this level. The favorable inside post allows tactical flexibility, and Greenidge can secure early position from the good draw. Morning line favoritism at 2/1 reflects handicapper respect for this filly’s recent consistency and advantageous post position.
Beautiful Mandate trained by John Erdel draws post four with Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard. This mare finished second in a similar race last time, indicating she is knocking on the door for victory. The middle post provides tactical flexibility, and Salazar Becerra’s experience helps in route races where pace judgment proves crucial. The recent runner-up effort suggests improvement is imminent.
Secondary Choices
She’s So Bearrish from the Jami Poole barn draws post five with Agustin Bracho riding. This mare shows competitive form and benefits from the Poole training touch. The post five position, while outside, remains manageable in route races. Morning line odds of 3/1 suggest handicapper respect.
Heart Light represents trainer Oscar Romero with Yan Aviles aboard from post one. While the rail post provides ground-saving opportunities, this mare must overcome recent inconsistency. Aviles brings competence, but this runner faces a challenging task against sharper rivals.
Pasta Salad Rhonda has been scratched by the veterinarian, tightening the field to six runners and slightly altering pace dynamics.
Selections
Win: Shieldmewithprayer
Place: Sacred Connection
Show: Beautiful Mandate
Race 3
Post Time: 1:11 PM EST
Claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward that have not won two races since June 17. One mile on the dirt with a purse of $13,000 at the $5,000 claiming level. This race features an eight-horse field of competitive claiming fillies and mares seeking their second victory in the past six months.
Pace Analysis
The one-mile distance creates a pace scenario with moderate early pressure as multiple runners show tactical speed. Amazingness from post two and Magic Palace from post six both possess early speed and could contest the early lead. A New Peace from post seven brings veteran savvy and tactical flexibility. The pace appears honest but not suicidal, setting up well for horses that can secure forward positions while rating kindly.
Wicca Wisdom from post five shows stalking ability and should track the early pace from a favorable position. The projected moderate fractions allow multiple running styles to remain competitive throughout. The extended distance rewards horses with stamina and tactical speed, making early positioning crucial while leaving room for stretch runs from horses positioned close enough to strike.
Key Contenders
Amazingness stands out as the top selection from the Anthony Granitz barn with Jose Bracho riding from post two. Handicapping consensus identifies this mare as having strong claims based on recent form. The favorable inside post allows tactical flexibility, and Bracho’s hot hand during the current meet enhances this runner’s prospects. The combination of form, jockey, and post position creates a formidable package. Morning line odds of 2/1 reflect well-deserved favoritism.
A New Peace trained by Larry Smith draws post seven with Angel Diaz aboard. This veteran mare brings experience and tactical versatility to the competitive claiming field. While the outside post presents challenges, Smith’s expertise with tactical types and Diaz’s understanding of pace dynamics make this mare dangerous. The nine-year-old mare’s experience proves valuable in navigating competitive claiming company, and morning line odds of 7/2 offer reasonable value.
Wicca Wisdom from the Johanna Urieta barn draws post five with Deshawn Parker riding. This mare shows consistent form and benefits from the middle post position that allows tactical flexibility. The stalking running style suits the projected pace scenario, and Parker’s competence helps in route races requiring pace judgment. Morning line odds of 6/1 provide potential value.
Secondary Choices
Magic Palace trained by Raquel Castro draws post six with Luis Raul Rivera aboard. This mare brings tactical speed and could secure favorable early position. The outside post requires good early speed to establish position, but this mare possesses the necessary early pace.
Special Beach represents trainer Joseph Mahan with Edgar Paucar riding from post eight. While the outside post presents challenges, this mare’s ability and Mahan’s training touch keep her in contention. Morning line odds of 8/1 reflect the post position disadvantage.
Memphis Cash Queen has been scratched by the stewards, reducing the field to eight runners from the original nine entries.
Selections
Win: Amazingness
Place: A New Peace
Show: Wicca Wisdom
Race 4
Post Time: 1:39 PM EST
Claiming race for three-year-olds and upward that have not won a race since December 17, 2024. One mile on the dirt with a purse of $10,900 at the $4,000 claiming level. This competitive claiming event attracts horses seeking to break through at the entry-level claiming ranks.
Pace Analysis
The one-mile distance creates pace dynamics with moderate early pressure as several runners show tactical speed. Firewater Jake from post six and Mr Laoban from post five both possess early speed and could establish forward positions. Will E Sutton from post one brings tactical speed from the rail position. The pace appears competitive but not suicidal, allowing stalkers to remain within striking distance.
Agnello’s Dream from post eight shows closing ability and should settle off the early pace from the outside post. The projected honest fractions set up well for horses with tactical speed that can secure favorable positions economically. The distance rewards horses with both speed and stamina, making early positioning important while leaving opportunities for well-timed stretch runs.
Key Contenders
Firewater Jake emerges as the top selection from the Rey Juarez-Mendoza barn with Victor Fernandez riding. This gelding finished a strong runner-up in his last start over course and distance, demonstrating current sharp form. The post six position, while outside, remains manageable for horses with tactical speed. Juarez-Mendoza’s skill with claimers and Fernandez’s competence make this gelding the horse to beat. Morning line odds of 5/2 reflect justified favoritism.
Agnello’s Dream trained by Jeffrey Skerrett draws the outside post eight with David Haldar aboard. While the outside post presents challenges, this gelding shows competitive form and closing ability. The extended distance suits horses that can make late runs, and Haldar’s experience helps in route races. Morning line odds of 3/1 provide reasonable value for a horse with tactical versatility.
Will E Sutton from the Manuel Vlaun barn draws post one with Alejandro Gomez riding. This gelding won impressively on November 12 at this track, demonstrating current form. The rail position provides maximum ground-saving opportunities, and Gomez’s competence helps navigate rail trips. Morning line odds of 7/2 offer value for a recent winner from the inside post.
Secondary Choices
Mr Laoban trained by Joseph Mahan draws post five with Yan Aviles aboard. This gelding shows consistent form and benefits from the middle post position. Mahan’s training touch and Aviles’ competence keep this runner competitive. Morning line odds of 4/1 reflect handicapper respect.
Parker from trainer Agustin Gonzalez Jr draws post three with Brandon Tapara riding. This gelding was re-entered after a previous scratch and brings tactical speed to the competitive field. The inside post position provides advantages in route races.
Gold Buckle and Forever Lasting round out the field as longer shots, with both needing career-best efforts to factor prominently.
Selections
Win: Firewater Jake
Place: Will E Sutton
Show: Agnello’s Dream
Race 5
Post Time: 2:07 PM EST
Maiden special weight for fillies and mares three, four, five, and six years old. One mile on the dirt with a purse of $24,300. This maiden race features older fillies and mares still seeking their first career victory, creating a competitive environment among horses facing various levels of experience.
Pace Analysis
The one-mile distance allows for pace development among the nine-horse maiden field. Dark Thirty from post nine shows tactical speed and could establish early position despite the outside draw. Fromthewonderland from post one brings early speed from the rail position. The pace appears moderate with several runners showing tactical speed, creating honest but not suicidal early fractions.
Nachthexen from post eight shows closing ability and should settle off the early pace. The projected moderate pace allows multiple running styles to remain competitive throughout. The maiden special weight conditions attract fillies and mares with varying levels of experience, making pace judgment crucial for connections and jockeys navigating this competitive field.
Key Contenders
Dark Thirty stands out as the top selection from the Kelli Martinez barn with David Haldar riding. This filly steps down in class after a close third-place finish in her last start, suggesting she is ready to break through against easier competition. The class drop from previous competition makes this filly dangerous in the maiden special weight ranks. Morning line odds of 2/1 reflect justified favoritism for a horse dropping in class.
Fromthewonderland trained by Kevin Buttigieg draws post one with Angel Diaz aboard. This filly has been consistently placed in recent runs, demonstrating steady improvement. The rail position provides ground-saving opportunities, and Diaz’s experience helps navigate inside trips. Morning line odds of 4/1 offer reasonable value for a consistent performer from the inside post.
Nachthexen from the Timothy Hamm barn draws post eight with Rocco Bowen riding. Hamm’s strong performance during the current meet makes any runner from his stable worthy of respect. This mare could improve on the easier assignment after facing tougher competition previously. Bowen’s recent improvement and Hamm’s hot hand combine to make this mare dangerous. Morning line odds of 7/2 provide value.
Secondary Choices
Jammersnextattack trained by Eric Reed draws post three with Bailey Weatherly aboard. Reed’s national reputation and success with maidens make this filly worth considering. The inside post provides tactical advantages, and Weatherly brings competence.
Clearly Inish has been scratched twice previously by the stewards, indicating potential issues. Betty Who, Gamay, Resort Fee, and Dremscomtrubcseofu round out the field as longer shots seeking their first career victories.
Selections
Win: Dark Thirty
Place: Nachthexen
Show: Fromthewonderland
Race 6
Post Time: 2:35 PM EST
Claiming race for registered Ohio-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward that have not won a race since December 17, 2024. Five and one-half furlongs on the dirt with a purse of $15,800 at the $5,000 claiming level. The Ohio-bred restriction and short sprint distance create an intriguing contest among regional distaff sprinters.
Pace Analysis
The short five-and-a-half-furlong distance heavily favors early speed and inside post positions. Box Step from post three and Extra Crafty from post eight both possess tactical speed and should secure forward positions. The abbreviated distance leaves minimal margin for error, making the break from the gate crucial. Tactical speed from inside posts historically dominates at this short sprint distance.
Spooky Little Girl from post four shows early speed and should factor into the pace dynamics from the favorable middle draw. The projected competitive early pace creates honest fractions, though the short distance limits opportunities for horses lacking early speed. Post positions one through four hold pronounced advantages at this distance, making inside draws particularly valuable in this Ohio-bred sprint.
Key Contenders
Box Step emerges as the top selection from the Susan Yoder barn with Elijah Greenidge riding from post three. This mare shows competitive form and benefits from the inside post position that proves crucial at the short sprint distance. Yoder’s expertise with Ohio-bred sprinters and the favorable draw create a formidable package. Morning line odds of 2/1 reflect justified favoritism for an inside-drawn runner with tactical speed.
Spooky Little Girl trained by Tina Ramgeet draws post four with Andrew Ramgeet aboard. The trainer-jockey combination brings familiarity with this mare’s running style, which proves advantageous in competitive claiming races. The post four position remains inside enough to secure favorable position while providing tactical flexibility. Morning line odds of 5/2 offer reasonable value.
Extra Crafty from the Robert Guciardo barn draws the outside post eight with Chelsey Keiser riding. While the outside post presents challenges at the short distance, this mare possesses tactical speed that can overcome the post disadvantage. Keiser’s competence and the mare’s ability keep her competitive despite the unfavorable draw. Morning line odds of 7/2 provide potential value for a horse overcoming post position.
Secondary Choices
Dance Drama trained by Christian Flores draws post one with Alejandro Gomez aboard. The rail position provides maximum ground-saving opportunities, though this mare must break sharply to avoid traffic. Morning line odds of 15/1 suggest a challenging task against sharper rivals.
Chloes Angel, Danza Magic, Highly Explosive, and Rainbow Ship complete the field as longer shots. The short sprint distance and competitive nature of the race make inside speed the dominant factor.
Selections
Win: Box Step
Place: Spooky Little Girl
Show: Extra Crafty
Race 7
Post Time: 3:03 PM EST
Claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward that have not won a race since December 17, 2024. Six furlongs on the dirt with a purse of $10,900 at the $4,000 claiming level. Ohio-registered foals receive preference in this competitive sprint for entry-level claimers.
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong sprint distance creates pace dynamics with moderate early pressure. Vitaemi from post one brings rail speed, while Miss Shady from post two shows tactical versatility. The small five-horse field reduces pace pressure, potentially allowing tactical types to settle into comfortable positions. Blazing Zenna from post three possesses early speed and should factor into early positioning from the inside draw.
Needed from post four and Opulent Ways from post five round out the competitive field. The abbreviated field size creates more racing room, reducing the importance of post position slightly while still favoring inside draws. The projected moderate pace should allow multiple horses to remain competitive throughout, with the race likely decided in the final furlong based on class and finishing ability.
Key Contenders
Miss Shady stands out from the Stephen Trevino barn with Jose Bracho riding from post two. Bracho’s exceptional form during the current meet with multiple recent victories makes any mount worthy of serious consideration. The favorable inside post provides tactical flexibility, and Trevino’s competence with claimers enhances this mare’s prospects. The combination of hot jockey, inside post, and competitive form creates a strong package.
Blazing Zenna trained by Joseph Mahan draws post three with Edgar Paucar aboard. This mare brings tactical speed from an inside post position, creating advantages in the six-furlong sprint. Mahan’s consistent training and the favorable draw make this mare dangerous in the small competitive field.
Needed from the Brendan Gilmartin barn draws post four with Angel Diaz riding. This filly shows developing ability and benefits from Diaz’s experience at Mahoning Valley. The middle post provides tactical flexibility in the small field, and Gilmartin’s training touch keeps this runner competitive.
Secondary Choices
Vitaemi from trainer Ivan Calderon draws post one with David Haldar aboard. While this ten-year-old mare brings experience, age and recent form create questions against sharper younger rivals. The rail position provides ground-saving opportunities.
Opulent Ways trained by Mikhail Carmichael draws post five with Rocco Bowen riding. This mare must overcome the outside post in the five-horse field. Bowen’s recent improvement provides optimism.
Two horses are listed as also-eligible: Princessofthenorth and Chipotle Pepper, either of which could draw in if scratches occur.
Selections
Win: Miss Shady
Place: Blazing Zenna
Show: Needed
Race 8
Post Time: 3:31 PM EST
Claiming race for registered Ohio-bred three-year-olds and upward. Six furlongs on the dirt with a purse of $21,500 at the $8,000 claiming level. Non-winners of a race since November 17 receive a two-pound weight allowance. This Ohio-bred sprint features competitive regional runners at the moderate claiming level.
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong sprint distance creates honest early fractions with multiple runners possessing tactical speed. Dark Vader from post three shows early speed from the inside draw, while Gapper from post five brings tactical versatility. Matthews Patriot from post two possesses experience and should factor into early pace dynamics.
Spirit of Akron from post one brings rail speed, while Ilikethat from post four shows tactical flexibility. The projected competitive pace creates honest fractions without being suicidal, allowing stalkers to remain within striking distance. The eight-horse field provides competitive balance, with inside post positions holding advantages in the six-furlong sprint configuration.
Key Contenders
Dark Vader emerges as the top selection from the Richard Zielinski barn with Jose Bracho riding from post three. Bracho’s exceptional recent form with multiple victories makes this pairing particularly dangerous. Zielinski’s expertise with Ohio-breds and the favorable inside post create a formidable package. This gelding shows competitive form and benefits from the ideal combination of jockey, trainer, and post position.
Matthews Patriot trained by Rey Juarez-Mendoza draws post two with Erik Barbaran aboard. This veteran gelding brings experience and tactical speed from the inside draw. Juarez-Mendoza’s skill with claimers and Barbaran’s solid meet performance make this runner competitive. The favorable post two position provides tactical flexibility.
Gapper from the Joseph Poole barn draws post five with Yan Aviles riding. Poole’s strong 20.76 percent strike rate at Mahoning Valley demonstrates consistent success at this track. This gelding benefits from the successful trainer and competent jockey. The middle post provides tactical options in the competitive Ohio-bred sprint.
Secondary Choices
Spirit of Akron trained by Juan Pablo Silva draws post one with Deshawn Parker aboard. The rail position provides ground-saving opportunities, though tactical speed proves necessary from the inside post. Silva’s competence and Parker’s ability keep this runner competitive.
Ilikethat from the Timothy Hamm barn draws post four with Rocco Bowen riding. Hamm’s strong current meet performance makes runners from his stable worthy of respect. The combination of hot trainer and improving jockey creates betting interest.
Mo Dont No, Midnight Warship, and Condemnation complete the field as longer shots requiring career-best efforts to factor prominently.
Selections
Win: Dark Vader
Place: Matthews Patriot
Show: Gapper
Race 9
Post Time: 3:59 PM EST
Allowance for three-year-olds and upward that have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter, or Ohio-bred or that have never won two races. Six furlongs on the dirt with a purse of $25,900. Non-winners of a race since November 17 receive a two-pound weight allowance. This allowance sprint attracts competitive horses seeking to establish credentials beyond maiden and claiming ranks.
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong sprint distance creates competitive early fractions with several runners possessing tactical speed. Bohemian Style from post four and Sunset Town from post nine show tactical versatility, while Reckless LJ from post eight brings closing ability. The pace appears honest with multiple speed types, creating fractions that should set up well for horses securing favorable early positions.
Fatih from post three shows early speed from the inside draw, while Just Like Rambo from post two possesses tactical flexibility. The projected competitive pace creates honest fractions without being suicidal, allowing both stalkers and closers positioned appropriately to remain competitive throughout. The nine-horse field provides depth, with inside post positions holding advantages in sprint configuration.
Key Contenders
Bohemian Style stands out as the top selection from the Nestor Rivera barn with Alexander Chavez riding from post four. This gelding narrowly missed victory last time, finishing nose behind the winner. The near-miss suggests improvement is imminent, and the favorable middle post provides tactical flexibility. Rivera’s skill placing horses in winnable spots and Chavez’s competence combine to make this gelding the horse to beat. Morning line odds of 2/1 reflect justified favoritism.
Reckless LJ trained by Jeffrey Radosevich draws post eight with Luis Raul Rivera riding. This gelding won well over course and distance recently, demonstrating current sharp form. While the outside post presents challenges, this runner’s closing ability allows tactical flexibility. The recent victory provides confidence, and closing ability suits the projected pace scenario. Morning line odds of 7/2 offer reasonable value.
Sunset Town from the Ricardo Bailey barn draws the outside post nine with Alexander Crispin aboard. This gelding finished strongly for third in his last outing, suggesting developing form. While the far outside post presents challenges, tactical speed can overcome post disadvantages. Morning line odds of 4/1 provide potential value for a horse showing improvement.
Secondary Choices
Fatih trained by Stephen Trevino draws post three with Luis Batista riding. This horse shows competitive form and benefits from the inside post position. Trevino’s competence and the favorable draw keep this runner in contention. Morning line odds of 6/1 suggest value opportunity.
Hoylake, Air Show, Oklahoma Joe, Just Like Rambo, and Ramsey complete the competitive allowance field. Each brings varying levels of form and tactical approaches to the sprint distance.
Selections
Win: Bohemian Style
Place: Reckless LJ
Show: Sunset Town
Race 10
Post Time: 4:27 PM EST
Maiden special weight for two-year-olds. Six furlongs on the dirt with a purse of $24,300. This juvenile maiden sprint features horses making their debuts or seeking their first career victory. The two-year-old maiden ranks often produce future stakes horses, making this race particularly intriguing for handicappers seeking developing talent.
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong sprint distance for two-year-old maidens creates pace dynamics with moderate early pressure. Mr Cardenas from post four shows tactical speed, while Top Frost from post two brings early pace from the inside draw. The projected moderate fractions allow multiple running styles to remain competitive throughout, with the race likely featuring honest but not suicidal early pace.
Paramount’s Pick from post six makes his career debut with trainer Israel Acevedo. First-time starters often show surprising ability in maiden races, particularly when backed by solid morning workouts. The distance proves standard for juvenile sprint debuts, allowing horses to display both speed and stamina capabilities.
Key Contenders
Mr Cardenas emerges as the top selection from the Juan Pablo Silva barn with Luis Negron riding from post four. This colt finished a strong runner-up in his last start, demonstrating readiness to break through against maiden competition. The near-miss suggests improvement is imminent, and the favorable middle post provides tactical flexibility. Silva’s competence with juveniles and Negron’s ability make this colt the horse to beat. Morning line odds of 2/1 reflect justified favoritism.
Top Frost trained by Jason DaCosta draws post two with Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard. This gelding has been knocking on the door for victory, showing consistent improvement in recent starts. The favorable inside post allows tactical flexibility, and Salazar Becerra’s experience helps with pace judgment in maiden races. Morning line odds of 3/1 offer reasonable value.
Paramount’s Pick from the Israel Acevedo barn draws post six with Deshawn Parker riding in his career debut. First-time starters can prove dangerous in maiden races, particularly when connections show confidence with favorable assignments. The middle-outside post provides tactical options, and Parker’s competence helps navigate debut races. Morning line odds of 7/2 suggest handicapper respect for debut potential.
Secondary Choices
Now Teddy trained by Shane Meyers draws post three with Alexander Crispin aboard. This gelding brings experience and benefits from the inside post position. Meyers’ competence and the favorable draw keep this runner competitive. Morning line odds of 4/1 reflect handicapper interest.
Abundant Energy from the Jay Bernardini barn draws post seven with Erik Barbaran riding in his debut. Bernardini’s strong reputation makes debut runners from his stable worthy of consideration. Morning line odds of 8/1 suggest value opportunity for a first-time starter from a quality barn.
Stepnoski and Runningonhighlevel complete the field. Runningonhighlevel was scratched previously by the veterinarian, indicating potential issues.
Selections
Win: Mr Cardenas
Place: Top Frost
Show: Paramount’s Pick
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jose Bracho has been riding exceptionally well at Mahoning Valley during the current meet, recording multiple victories between December 8 and December 16. His recent form shows first-place finishes on December 16 with Onirico at 6/1 and December 9 with Timeisgolden at 4/1. The Puerto Rican jockey demonstrates proficiency with both tactical speed types and closers, showing versatility across various running styles. Bracho’s hot hand makes any mount worthy of serious consideration, particularly when combined with favorable post positions in sprint races. His understanding of the Mahoning Valley configuration and ability to judge pace dynamics enhance his effectiveness during this successful stretch.
Angel Diaz brings extensive experience to Mahoning Valley, having ridden consistently at the track throughout 2025. His familiarity with the one-mile oval configuration and understanding of pace dynamics make him particularly effective in route races requiring tactical judgment. Diaz excels with tactical speed types that can secure forward positions while rating kindly. His experience navigating traffic and ability to find racing room through the tight turns prove valuable assets. Handicappers should note Diaz’s effectiveness when paired with inside post positions that allow him to employ ground-saving tactics while maintaining position throughout races.
Rocco Bowen has shown marked improvement in recent weeks at Mahoning Valley. The jockey demonstrates particular effectiveness with speed horses, understanding how to judge pace dynamics and secure forward positions without excessive early exertion. Bowen’s improvement coincides with strong mounts from the Timothy Hamm barn, creating a potent trainer-jockey combination during the current meet. His ability to rate speed horses effectively proves valuable on the sealed winter surface that favors early positioning. Handicappers should give Bowen serious consideration when he combines with quality trainers and favorable post positions.
Fernando Salazar Becerra maintains a regular presence at Mahoning Valley, bringing consistency and familiarity with the track configuration. His experience proves particularly valuable in competitive claiming races where knowledge of horses’ quirks matters significantly. Salazar Becerra demonstrates competence across various distances and running styles, showing tactical flexibility based on pace scenarios and post positions. His steady approach and understanding of track biases make him a reliable option in competitive fields.
Victor Fernandez brings steady performance to Mahoning Valley throughout the current meet. His competence with tactical speed types and ability to judge pace dynamics make him effective in both sprint and route races. Fernandez demonstrates patience when needed and aggressiveness when opportunities arise, showing good tactical judgment based on race flow. His experience at claiming levels makes him particularly effective in competitive claiming company where positioning and timing prove crucial.
Luis Negron provides solid performance across various race types at Mahoning Valley. His competence with both maidens and experienced horses demonstrates versatility. Negron shows particular effectiveness when combined with inside post positions that allow tactical flexibility. His steady approach and reliable riding style make him a dependable option in competitive fields requiring sound tactical decisions.
Erik Barbaran has shown solid meet performance, demonstrating particular effectiveness with tactical speed types. His ability to secure forward positions from favorable draws and judge pace dynamics makes him valuable in sprint races where early positioning proves crucial. Barbaran’s experience and tactical flexibility allow him to adapt to various pace scenarios based on field composition and running styles.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Robert Cline maintains a 14 percent win rate at Mahoning Valley with 134 wins from 949 starts over his training career at the track. His statistics demonstrate consistent competitiveness at this venue, particularly with Ohio-bred runners competing at claiming levels. Cline shows particular strength in dirt races, with his 6.5-furlong to 7-furlong statistics showing a 19 percent win rate. The trainer’s familiarity with Mahoning Valley and understanding of what type succeeds at the track make his runners worthy of consideration, particularly when combined with favorable conditions including inside post positions and competitive jockeys. Cline’s horses typically show honest efforts and consistent form cycles.
Joseph Poole represents one of the most successful trainers at Mahoning Valley, maintaining an impressive 20.76 percent strike rate with 93 wins from 448 starts at the track. His success rate substantially exceeds track averages, demonstrating particular effectiveness with the Mahoning Valley configuration and racing surface. Poole shows versatility across race types and claiming levels, consistently placing horses in winnable spots with honest efforts expected from his stable. His runners typically demonstrate tactical speed and the ability to secure forward positions, traits that suit the track’s configuration and bias. Handicappers should give serious consideration to Poole runners, particularly when combined with favorable post positions and quality jockeys.
Timothy Hamm has been performing exceptionally well during the current Mahoning Valley meet, with multiple winners in recent days including Toastmaster on December 16. Hamm’s strong current form makes any runner from his stable worthy of respect, particularly in competitive allowance and claiming company. His expertise with tactical speed types and understanding of pace dynamics enhance his effectiveness at Mahoning Valley. Hamm demonstrates skill in placing horses at appropriate levels where they can compete effectively, and his current hot hand suggests trainers’ confidence with the stable’s condition. The combination of strong recent performance and tactical acumen makes Hamm’s runners particularly dangerous during this successful stretch.
Jay Bernardini maintains a quality stable with consistent performance at Mahoning Valley throughout 2025. His expertise spans various race types, showing particular effectiveness with maiden special weight runners and developing horses. Bernardini’s morning work patterns typically reflect his runners’ readiness, with debut horses from his barn showing competitive efforts. His understanding of pace dynamics and ability to place horses at appropriate levels create consistent success. Handicappers should note Bernardini’s effectiveness with tactical speed types that can secure forward positions from favorable draws.
Larry Smith brings extensive experience to Mahoning Valley, demonstrating particular expertise with tactical speed types and Ohio-bred runners. His understanding of pace dynamics and track configuration enhance his effectiveness, particularly in route races requiring tactical judgment. Smith’s horses typically show improvement with racing fitness, making his runners worth noting in second or third starts after layoffs. His patient approach and willingness to drop horses to appropriate levels create opportunities for successful wagering.
Eric Reed brings national prominence to any Mahoning Valley appearance, though his presence at this track remains limited compared to his Churchill Downs and Keeneland base. Reed’s career includes more than 1,400 victories and the historic 80-1 Kentucky Derby upset with Rich Strike in 2022. When Reed sends runners to Mahoning Valley, handicappers should note the significance of the trainer selecting this venue. His expertise with maidens and developing horses makes his two-year-olds particularly interesting in maiden special weight company.
Shane Meyers maintains steady performance at Mahoning Valley with consistent competitiveness across race types. His runners typically show tactical speed and honest efforts, making them reliable options in competitive fields. Meyers demonstrates skill placing horses at appropriate levels where they can compete effectively. His understanding of track configuration and surface conditions enhances his effectiveness during the winter meet.
Rey Juarez-Mendoza shows consistent success with claiming horses at Mahoning Valley. His expertise with tactical speed types and understanding of appropriate placement levels create regular success. Juarez-Mendoza’s runners typically show improvement when properly placed, making his horses worth noting when dropping in class or returning from freshening. His morning work patterns typically reflect horses’ readiness for competitive efforts.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The pronounced inside post bias at Mahoning Valley creates significant wagering opportunities throughout today’s card, particularly in sprint races where posts one through four historically produce higher win percentages. Handicappers should weight post position heavily when constructing wagers, especially in six-furlong sprints where the bias proves most pronounced. Horses drawn in posts one through four with tactical speed deserve serious consideration for win, place, and exacta wagering, particularly when combined with quality jockeys understanding the track’s configuration.
The winter sealed surface amplifies the existing speed bias, making early positioning even more crucial during cold weather conditions. Focus wagering strategies on horses with tactical speed who can secure forward positions economically without excessive early energy expenditure. The combination of cold temperatures and sealed surface creates faster racing conditions that favor horses able to establish position and maintain it through the stretch. Closers face increased difficulty on this configuration, particularly in sprint races where the abbreviated stretch limits opportunities for late runs.
Race 2 presents strong wagering opportunities with Shieldmewithprayer offering value as a recent winner stepping back at reasonable morning line odds of 5/2. The filly’s recent victory provides confidence, and the extended route distance suits her closing running style. Consider exacta and trifecta combinations using Shieldmewithprayer with Sacred Connection and Beautiful Mandate, both of whom show consistent form from favorable post positions. A trifecta box including these three fillies provides coverage of the most likely winners while offering potential for solid payoffs.
Race 3 features Amazingness as a deserving favorite from the favorable post two position with hot jockey Jose Bracho aboard. The consensus handicapper selection and strong recent form justify backing this mare for win wagering. Consider exacta and trifecta combinations using Amazingness with A New Peace and Wicca Wisdom, creating coverage of the most likely outcomes. A daily double connecting Race 2 (Shieldmewithprayer) with Race 3 (Amazingness) offers value potential with two horses demonstrating current form.
Race 4 presents Firewater Jake as a strong win candidate coming off a runner-up effort. Consider exacta combinations using Firewater Jake with Will E Sutton, who benefits from the rail post position and recent victory. A Pick 3 spanning Races 3, 4, and 5 using Amazingness, Firewater Jake, and Dark Thirty as singles provides confident wagering on three horses demonstrating class advantages in their respective races.
Race 8’s Ohio-bred sprint features Dark Vader as a strong selection with hot jockey Jose Bracho from the favorable post three position. Consider exacta and trifecta combinations using Dark Vader with Matthews Patriot and Gapper, both showing competitive form from inside post positions. The combination of Bracho’s hot hand and favorable post position creates confidence for single wagering while maintaining coverage through exacta combinations.
Race 9’s allowance sprint presents Bohemian Style as a deserving favorite after narrowly missing last time. Consider exacta and trifecta wagering using Bohemian Style with Reckless LJ and Sunset Town. A Pick 3 spanning Races 8, 9, and 10 using Dark Vader, Bohemian Style, and Mr Cardenas as singles provides confident wagering on three horses showing form advantages and favorable conditions.
For aggressive bettors seeking larger payoffs, consider Pick 4 wagers spanning the final four races using multiple horses in competitive races. Structure Pick 4 tickets using singles in races featuring clear favorites with tactical advantages while spreading in competitive races offering multiple legitimate contenders. Focus on races where inside post positions combine with tactical speed and quality jockeys, creating high-percentage plays that anchor multi-race wagers.
Daily double opportunities exist throughout the card, particularly connecting races featuring deserving favorites with tactical advantages. The Race 8-9 daily double using Dark Vader with Bohemian Style creates a strong two-race combination featuring horses with favorable posts, hot connections, and recent form suggesting readiness. Consider investing more heavily in daily doubles featuring horses with multiple positive factors compared to speculative plays lacking clear advantages.
For value seekers, Race 10’s maiden special weight features Paramount’s Pick making his debut from a quality barn at morning line odds of 7/2. First-time starters from successful barns often outperform expectations in maiden races, particularly when connections show confidence with favorable assignments. Consider place and show wagering on Paramount’s Pick while using Mr Cardenas and Top Frost for win wagering, creating coverage of multiple likely outcomes while seeking value from the debut runner.
The track’s configuration and pronounced biases create opportunities for handicappers willing to weight post position appropriately. Focus on horses combining favorable posts with tactical speed and quality connections, avoiding horses facing significant post position disadvantages unless compensating factors including superior class or current form justify the risk. The sealed winter surface and cold weather conditions amplify existing biases, making these factors even more important than during warmer racing conditions.
