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Mahoning Valley Race Course presents an eight-race card today featuring a mix of claiming, allowance, and allowance optional claiming races. The card runs from 12:15 PM through 3:31 PM EST, offering a full afternoon of competitive racing on the one-mile dirt oval in Youngstown, Ohio. The feature race is the seventh, a $39,300 allowance optional claiming event for registered Ohio-bred fillies and mares at six furlongs.
Today's races include several competitive fields with horses looking to close out the year strong heading into the winter meet. The claiming races range from $4,000 to $10,000, while the allowance races carry purses up to $39,300. Several horses on the scratch watch may be removed from competition, including Luna Llena (Race 1), El Rosillo and Powerful Moon (Race 2), Miss Shady and Wedontbelieveher (Race 3), and Highly Explosive (Race 4).
Weather and Track Conditions
Current weather conditions at Mahoning Valley show cloudy skies with windy conditions, with winds from the WSW at approximately 23 mph. The temperature is hovering around 32°F with 69% humidity. Today's high is forecast at 34°F with a low of 22°F, representing typical early December conditions for northeastern Ohio.
Snow has been reported in the Youngstown area this morning, with conditions improving through mid-morning. The current dirt track condition should be labeled as fast or good by post time, though horseplayers should monitor updates for any changes. The track surface at Mahoning Valley drains well due to the drainage stone beneath the track, allowing conditions to improve quickly after precipitation.
Track Surface Characteristics: Mahoning Valley features a one-mile, 80-foot-wide oval with a 1,000-foot stretch. The track is banked at 3 percent in the stretches and 6 percent in the turns. This configuration tends to favor early speed and tactical versatility.
Track Bias and Post Position Tendencies: Mahoning Valley exhibits a moderate inside post bias, particularly pronounced in sprint races where posts one through four produce notably higher win percentages. In six-furlong sprints, inside posts allow ground-saving trips through the turn while maintaining forward positioning for stretch drives. Posts one through three historically demonstrate the strongest winning percentages at sprint distances. The tight turns and short stretches limit closing opportunities, making early speed and tactical positioning crucial for success. For route races at one mile, the inside bias remains relevant though somewhat diminished due to the longer run to the first turn allowing better positional adjustments.
Race 1 – Claiming $5,000
Post Time: 12:15 PM EST
Six furlongs, dirt, purse $12,200. For fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won three races.
Pace Analysis
This opening race features a moderate pace scenario with several horses possessing tactical speed. Kate Wins and Chapter and Verse should be prominent early, while Style in Time and Marmara have shown the ability to stalk the pace. Royal Itch could also show early foot from post six. The pace scenario favors horses with tactical versatility who can secure position without expending excessive energy through the opening fractions.
Key Contenders
Style in Time draws significant handicapper support as the morning line favorite at 3-1. Trained by Nicole Higham with Alexander Chavez aboard, this three-year-old filly has shown consistent form in recent outings. Her recent effort on November 17 resulted in a second-place finish at this track, running behind Crackle while finishing ahead of Geegee's Story and Marmara. The post three draw is advantageous given the track's inside bias, and she should be able to secure a favorable stalking position early.
Kate Wins represents the Manuel Vlaun stable and has shown ability in recent starts. This filly has earned $20,265 and should appreciate the class level here. With Alejandro Gomez in the saddle, she will likely be forwardly placed from the outset.
Secondary Choices
Chapter and Verse comes from the barn of Michael Rone, a conditioner maintaining a 20% win rate with horses that have won over $1 million in several recent years. Erik Barbaran picks up the mount, and his presence in the irons always warrants attention given his recent strong form at the meeting.
Marmara is the second Manuel Vlaun entrant and offers a degree of trainer intent in this spot. Angel Diaz rides, and she finished fourth in the November 17 race that included Style in Time.
Longshots
Geegee's Story finished fifth in that same November 17 race behind Style in Time and merits consideration at a price. Luna Llena is on the scratch watch and may not start.
Selections
Win: Style in Time
Place: Kate Wins
Show: Chapter and Verse
Race 2 – Claiming $10,000
Post Time: 12:43 PM EST
Five and a half furlongs, dirt, purse $20,400. For three year olds and upward.
Pace Analysis
This sprint should see a contested early pace with multiple speed horses engaged. Tonight, Streets of War, and El Rosillo all possess early tactical speed. The short stretch run at this distance places a premium on early positioning, and horses drawn inside hold an advantage.
Key Contenders
Aye Aye Sir emerges as the selection from handicappers at 3-1 morning line odds. Trained by Nestor Rivera with Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard, this eight-year-old gelding has experience at the meeting. His October effort saw him finish third from post five. The inside post four draw is favorable, and the Rivera barn has been productive with jockey Angel Diaz showing a 22% win rate for trainer Nestor Rivera.
El Rosillo appears on the scratch watch due to trainer-related issues and may not start. If he does run, he represents the Michelle Elliott barn and possesses tactical speed that would make him dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Tonight represents Jeffrey Radosevich, a legendary Ohio conditioner with over 3,000 career wins. The three-year-old gelding won on November 12 at this track, and T.D. Houghton retains the mount from the rail draw. This represents a significant advantage given the track's inside bias.
Morethanreadyeddie ships in from the Ricardo Gonzalez barn with Jason Simpson aboard. This five-year-old gelding offers value at expected double-digit odds.
Longshots
Powerful Moon is on the scratch watch for veterinarian-related reasons and may not start. If cleared, the Kevin Ray trainee would add intrigue to the race.
Selections
Win: Aye Aye Sir
Place: Tonight
Show: Morethanreadyeddie
Race 3 – Claiming $4,000
Post Time: 1:11 PM EST
Five and a half furlongs, dirt, purse $10,900. For fillies and mares three years old and upward which have not won a race since December 2.
Pace Analysis
This bottom-level claiming race features a full field with several horses showing early speed capabilities. Gamble On Love and Miss Shady could contest the early lead, while the pace scenario should be honest. The short distance favors tactical speed types.
Key Contenders
Vitaemi receives top handicapper selection at 9-5 morning line. The ten-year-old mare from Ivan Calderon's barn has Victor Fernandez riding. Her November 17 effort at this track produced a third-place finish. Calderon and jockey Angel Diaz maintain a 22% win rate together, demonstrating strong stable chemistry.
Miss Shady appears on the scratch watch for stewards-related reasons and may not run. If she does start, Jose Bracho picks up the mount for Stephen Trevino.
Secondary Choices
Oaxaca represents Jeffrey Skerrett, who has been active at the meeting. Chelsey Keiser rides from post three, and the inside draw is advantageous. Skerrett's runners have shown consistent form, including a fifth-place finish for Oaxaca on November 17.
Botox Katie ships in for Tianna Richardville with Deshawn Parker in the irons. Parker is a capable journeyman who can deliver a solid tactical ride.
Longshots
Wedontbelieveher appears on the scratch watch for stewards-related reasons. Blazing Zenna and Elika offer longshot possibilities if the scratches create a smaller field.
Selections
Win: Vitaemi
Place: Oaxaca
Show: Botox Katie
Race 4 – Ohio Bred Claiming $5,000
Post Time: 1:39 PM EST
Six furlongs, dirt, purse $18,400. For registered Ohio-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward.
Pace Analysis
The state-bred claiming race features several horses with tactical speed. Hello Sweets and Tale of the Lyon should be prominent early, while Beautiful Charade and Line Dancer can stalk the pace. The six-furlong configuration at Mahoning Valley rewards horses that can secure position through the single turn.
Key Contenders
Hello Sweets gets the nod from handicappers at 9-5 morning line odds. Trained by Ivan Calderon with Angel Diaz aboard, this five-year-old mare has demonstrated strong recent form. Her June victory at Thistledown came in impressive fashion, taking over from pace-setting rivals to win convincingly. The Calderon-Diaz combination has proven highly effective, and the draw from post three is favorable.
Beautiful Charade represents Tim Hamm, a top regional conditioner whose Blazing Meadows Farm operation dominates Ohio-bred racing. Rocco Bowen picks up the mount, bringing stakes-winning experience to the saddle. The four-year-old filly carries top weight of 126 pounds, reflecting her class edge.
Secondary Choices
Tale of the Lyon comes from Joseph Poole's barn with Jose Bracho riding. Drawn in post four, she should be forwardly placed and competitive.
Cause of Love represents the Nestor Rivera stable, which has been productive throughout the meeting. Alexander Chavez rides from the rail, a significant advantage given track tendencies.
Longshots
Highly Explosive appears on the scratch watch for stewards-related reasons and may not start. Line Dancer offers value at double-digit odds for Oscar Romero.
Selections
Win: Hello Sweets
Place: Beautiful Charade
Show: Cause of Love
Race 5 – Ohio Bred Claiming $10,000
Post Time: 2:07 PM EST
One mile, dirt, purse $19,400. For registered Ohio-bred three year olds and upward which have never won two races.
Pace Analysis
The route race features a more complex pace dynamic with the longer distance. Gray Tormentor and Weekend Retreat should show early, while Blue Blood Cowboy from the Jason DaCosta barn possesses tactical speed. The extended distance rewards patient tactics and late acceleration.
Key Contenders
Gray Tormentor tops handicapper selections at 9-5 morning line odds. Trained by Ivan Vazquez with Victor Fernandez aboard, this Ohio-bred four-year-old gelding has recent form at the track. His November 18 effort resulted in a fourth-place finish, though he ran a competitive race. The rail draw is advantageous for the route distance.
Blue Blood Cowboy represents Jason DaCosta, who wins at a stellar 41% rate with first-time starters and maintains strong overall numbers. Erik Barbaran picks up the mount, and his current form has been exceptional, including a 10-win week earlier in the season.
Secondary Choices
Take Dictation comes off a victory on November 18 under Fernando Salazar Becerra. Trainer Israel Flores has the three-year-old gelding in good form, and he should be competitive carrying 125 pounds from post ten.
Wandalou's Pride represents Manuel Vlaun and has earned $16,779 lifetime. Alejandro Gomez rides, and the gelding brings route experience to this assignment.
Longshots
Turkodancer from Joshua Langley's barn offers value at expected odds. The four-year-old gelding has shown flashes of ability and could impact the exotics.
Selections
Win: Gray Tormentor
Place: Blue Blood Cowboy
Show: Take Dictation
Race 6 – Claiming $7,500
Post Time: 2:35 PM EST
Five and a half furlongs, dirt, purse $14,800. For three year olds and upward which have never won three races.
Pace Analysis
The short sprint features competitive speed horses who should create an honest pace. Picaro and Cool Couple possess tactical speed, while Improbable First can be forwardly placed. The 5.5-furlong distance rewards early positioning and tactical quickness.
Key Contenders
Improbable First receives strong handicapper support at 8-5 morning line odds. Trained by Michael Rone with Luis Raul Rivera aboard, this three-year-old colt has shown significant improvement. His recent form includes multiple seconds at Thistledown, and his maiden victory came in May. The Rone stable maintains a 20% win rate, and Rivera is a capable veteran.
Cool Couple represents Jason DaCosta, whose strong training statistics command respect. Rocco Bowen picks up the mount, bringing significant talent to a competitive spot. The three-year-old gelding from post three benefits from the inside bias.
Secondary Choices
Canavero comes from Joseph Poole's barn with Jose Bracho riding. The four-year-old colt has shown tactical speed and should be competitive.
Breeze the Bayou represents Jeffrey Skerrett, an active conditioner at the meeting. Erik Barbaran rides, and his presence always warrants respect given his current form.
Longshots
Spelled Well offers value for Manuel Vlaun at expected odds. Alejandro Gomez rides the five-year-old gelding, who has shown flashes of ability.
Selections
Win: Improbable First
Place: Cool Couple
Show: Breeze the Bayou
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming $50,000
Post Time: 3:03 PM EST
Six furlongs, dirt, purse $39,300. For registered Ohio-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward.
Pace Analysis
The feature race brings together the best Ohio-bred fillies and mares on the card. Nublada and Banana Pudding should be forwardly placed, while Lionistic and She's Crafty possess tactical speed. The quality of this field suggests a competitive pace scenario that could set up for horses with late acceleration.
Key Contenders
Lionistic receives top handicapper support at 7-2 morning line odds. Trained by Jeffrey Radosevich with Erik Barbaran aboard, this six-year-old mare has proven ability at the meeting. Her impressive November 6 victory saw her rally from off the pace to win impressively. Radosevich is a legendary Ohio conditioner with over 3,000 career wins and multiple training titles.
Nublada comes off a November 12 victory under Fernando Salazar Becerra for Robert Gorham. The four-year-old filly has demonstrated class at this level, including a stakes victory in the First Lady Stakes where she split rivals and drew clear impressively. Gorham has achieved over 1,000 career wins and knows this Ohio-bred division well.
Secondary Choices
Banana Pudding represents Julie Pappada with Jose Bracho riding. This four-year-old filly has run competitively in this class and warrants respect.
Express Fashion ships in for Shane Meyers with Luis Raul Rivera aboard. The five-year-old mare brings competitive speed figures and stakes experience.
Longshots
Kichi Kitsu represents Jeffrey Skerrett and offers value at expected odds. The veteran mare has experience at the meeting and could impact the exotics.
Selections
Win: Lionistic
Place: Nublada
Show: Banana Pudding
Race 8 – Allowance
Post Time: 3:31 PM EST
Five and a half furlongs, dirt, purse $25,900. For three year olds and upward which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter, or Ohio bred.
Pace Analysis
The closing race features quality allowance runners in a competitive sprint. Bohemian Style and Blazing Burroughs possess tactical speed, while Kinderhook and Air Show can stalk. The short distance and quality field suggest an honest pace that could favor closers.
Key Contenders
Bohemian Style receives handicapper support at 4-1 morning line odds. Trained by Nestor Rivera with Alexander Chavez aboard, this three-year-old gelding has been in excellent form. His back-to-back victories in September at Thistledown demonstrated his current ability. Rivera Racing Stables has been highly productive, and Chavez has proven capable in recent starts.
Blazing Burroughs has been identified as a strong recent form horse who looks well-placed to improve on his last effort. The Larry Smith trainee draws post three, advantageous given track tendencies.
Secondary Choices
Air Show ran second in his most recent start and merits consideration. The seven-year-old gelding is on the scratch watch for veterinarian-related reasons and may not start.
Kinderhook represents Robert Gorham with Erik Barbaran riding. The combination warrants respect given both the trainer's and jockey's current form.
Longshots
Coastertothemoon could bounce back from a disappointing recent effort for Johanna Urieta. Deshawn Parker picks up the mount.
Selections
Win: Bohemian Style
Place: Blazing Burroughs
Show: Kinderhook
Jockey Notes and Insights
Erik Barbaran leads the jockey standings at Mahoning Valley for the current meet and has demonstrated exceptional form. His 10-win week earlier in the season at 55% strike rate showcased his dominance at the track. He holds several key mounts today, including Chapter and Verse (Race 1), Blue Blood Cowboy (Race 5), Breeze the Bayou (Race 6), Lionistic (Race 7), and Kinderhook (Race 8). His presence in the feature race aboard Lionistic is particularly noteworthy.
Fernando Salazar Becerra has been riding well with multiple recent victories, including Take Dictation on November 18 and Nublada on November 12. His key mounts today include Aye Aye Sir (Race 2), Lady Giuliana (Race 4), and Nublada (Race 7).
Alexander Chavez has shown strong recent form with victories at the meeting. His combination with trainer Nestor Rivera is productive, and he holds the mount on Style in Time (Race 1) and Bohemian Style (Race 8).
Angel Diaz maintains a strong partnership with trainer Ivan Calderon, posting a 22% win rate together. His key mounts include Hello Sweets (Race 4), where this combination has proven highly effective.
Luis Raul Rivera brings significant experience with over 1,050 career wins and a 20% lifetime win rate. He picks up the mount on Improbable First (Race 6) for Michael Rone.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Jeffrey Radosevich is a legendary Ohio conditioner who became the 36th trainer in North America to reach 3,000 career wins. A former jockey with 1,141 wins in the saddle, he began training in 1993 and has won multiple training titles in northeast Ohio. His runner Lionistic in Race 7 represents a strong opportunity in the feature.
Ivan Calderon has emerged as a productive conditioner at Ohio circuits with strong partnerships with jockeys Angel Diaz and Fernando Salazar Becerra. His horses Vitaemi (Race 3) and Hello Sweets (Race 4) both receive top handicapper support.
Nestor Rivera operates Rivera Racing Stables and has been highly productive with Angel Diaz showing a 21% win rate from 729 rides for the barn. His runner Bohemian Style in Race 8 has demonstrated excellent form with back-to-back wins.
Michael Rone maintains a 20% win rate and still gallops every horse in his barn daily. His runner Improbable First in Race 6 receives strong handicapper support.
Jason DaCosta wins at a stellar 41% rate with first-time starters and maintains strong overall statistics. His runner Blue Blood Cowboy in Race 5 and Cool Couple in Race 6 warrant attention.
Robert Gorham achieved his 1,000th career win and has been active at Mahoning Valley. His runner Nublada in the feature Race 7 is a stakes winner with proven class.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The inside post bias at Mahoning Valley creates tangible wagering opportunities, particularly in sprint races. Posts one through three at six furlongs and 5.5 furlongs have shown significantly higher win percentages. Consider weighting exotic wagers toward horses drawn inside while using tactical speed types who can secure favorable position.
Daily Double Strategy: The first daily double connects Races 1 and 2. Style in Time (Race 1) into Aye Aye Sir and Tonight (Race 2) offers a logical combination with favorable post positions for all three horses.
Pick 3 Strategy: Races 6-7-8 offer an attractive late Pick 3 opportunity. Improbable First singles in Race 6, spreading to Lionistic and Nublada in Race 7, and using Bohemian Style and Blazing Burroughs in Race 8 creates a manageable yet productive ticket.
Exacta Value: Race 7 offers significant exacta value with Lionistic and Nublada as the key horses. Boxing these two with Banana Pudding underneath provides coverage at reasonable cost.
Best Bet of the Card: Hello Sweets in Race 4 represents the strongest combination of trainer form, jockey chemistry, and favorable post position. The Ivan Calderon-Angel Diaz partnership has proven highly effective, and the mare's recent form is excellent.
Value Play: Blue Blood Cowboy in Race 5 offers value at expected odds given the Jason DaCosta training statistics and Erik Barbaran in the saddle. The 41% first-out win rate for DaCosta commands respect.
Longshot Value: Kinderhook in Race 8 represents potential value with Robert Gorham training and Erik Barbaran riding. The combination has been productive, and the gelding could offer price value against the favorites.
