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Mahoning Valley Race Course presents an eight-race card on Monday afternoon featuring a mix of claiming races, allowance conditions, and maiden events. Current weather conditions show mostly cloudy skies with temperatures around 47°F and calm winds, creating favorable racing conditions. The track surface should be fast given the stable weather pattern.​

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast calls for cloudy conditions with daytime temperatures reaching 54°F and overnight lows around 36°F, with only a 25% chance of precipitation. Wind conditions are light at 4 mph, which should not significantly impact racing. These conditions favor speed horses and front-runners on the dirt surface.​

Race-by-Race Analysis

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming (6F Dirt, $19,500)

This Ohio-bred maiden claiming event for older horses presents a competitive field where class and recent form will be key factors.

Key Contenders:
Rex Spired draws the rail with Yan Aviles and shows potential stepping up from recent efforts. The Justin Radosevich trainee has been working steadily toward this debut.

Quality Kiss represents Robert Cline’s stable with Fernando Salazar Becerra riding. The three-year-old gelding has been training well and could provide value at longer odds.

Secondary Choices:
Willie T brings Erik Barbaran aboard for Robert Gorham’s barn. The combination has been effective at this level throughout the meet.

Pace Analysis:
Expected moderate early pace with several horses showing tactical speed. The winner likely comes from just off the leaders in the stretch drive.

Selections: Rex Spired to win, Quality Kiss for place value

Race 2 – Claiming ($8,000, 6F Dirt, $17,600)

This competitive claiming race features older horses with established form patterns and recent racing experience.

Key Contenders:
Valentine Bug brings extensive experience at this level with Luis Alberto Batista riding for Jay Bernardini. The eight-year-old has shown consistent ability in similar company.

Poppy’s Pride represents solid form for Caryn Vecchio’s stable with Alexander Crispin aboard. Recent efforts suggest readiness for this company.

Secondary Choices:
Doctor Wu returns to familiar claiming ranks with Erik Barbaran riding for the Bernardini barn, creating a strong stable entry scenario.

Longshots to Consider:
Colonel Vargo could provide value at longer odds with Luis Rivera aboard for Anthony Farrior’s stable.

Pace Analysis:
Moderate pace expected with multiple horses showing early speed capabilities. The stretch drive should determine the winner.

Selections: Valentine Bug to win, Poppy’s Pride to place

Race 3 – Allowance (1 Mile Dirt, $26,400)

This allowance feature for horses which have never won three races presents the most competitive betting race on the Monday afternoon card at Mahoning Valley. The one-mile distance on the main track creates tactical opportunities with pace development crucial to the outcome.​

Race Conditions and Class Analysis

The $26,400 purse attracts horses stepping up from claiming ranks alongside those established in allowance company. The condition restricts entry to horses which have never won three races, creating a competitive field where recent form and class progression become determining factors. Weight allowances for non-winners since October 3rd provide additional handicapping angles.​

Detailed Horse Analysis

Sock It to Me (Post 2, Deshawn Parker, Anthony Stephen)

The 8/5 morning line favorite brings the most compelling recent form to this allowance test. This three-year-old gelding by Violence shows impressive last-out victory that suggests readiness for the class advancement. The Stephen stable has positioned this horse perfectly for the step up from claiming ranks, and the recent win demonstrates the tactical speed necessary for the one-mile distance.​

Jockey Deshawn Parker provides experienced riding with strong tactical awareness for route races. The outside post position allows tactical flexibility while avoiding early traffic issues. Recent workouts suggest peak conditioning for this engagement.

Sticky Note (Post 3, Oscar Villarreal, William Cowans)

The 2/1 second choice adds first-time blinkers for this allowance debut, creating significant equipment angle considerations. This four-year-old gelding by Accelerate shows consistent form patterns that suggest readiness for class advancement. The blinkers addition typically improves focus and early speed, potentially creating pace pressure for the favorite.​

The Cowans stable shows confidence with the equipment change and class step-up. Villarreal brings tactical riding skills that should maximize the horse’s chances from the inside draw. The breeding suggests route capability with tactical speed development.​

Big Lucky (Post 5, Alexander Crispin, Nestor Rivera)

This 3/1 third choice represents the Rivera Racing Stables with proven route form. The three-year-old colt by Lookin At Lucky shows consistent ability across multiple surfaces and distances. Recent entries suggest the stable has targeted this spot specifically for class advancement opportunities.​

Crispin provides steady riding with good judgment in route situations. The outside post creates options for tactical positioning while maintaining clear sailing throughout. The breeding combination suggests improvement potential at longer distances.

Picaro (Post 1, Victor Fernandez, Rey Juarez-Mendoza)

At 8/1 morning line odds, this three-year-old ridgling offers potential value in the competitive allowance field. The Maclean’s Music breeding provides tactical speed with route capability. The rail post position creates both opportunities and challenges for pace positioning.​

Fernandez brings experienced tactical riding that maximizes opportunities from inside draws. Recent training patterns suggest readiness for the class step-up despite longer odds.

Admiral Nelson (Post 4, Fernando Salazar Becerra, Raquel Castro)

The 12/1 longshot represents value potential with Castro stable entry. This three-year-old gelding shows breeding that suggests route improvement possibilities. The middle post position provides tactical options without early pace pressure.​

Gut Instinct (Post 6, Erik Barbaran, Jeffrey Skerrett)

At 10/1 odds, this five-year-old gelding brings veteran experience to the competitive allowance field. The outside post position allows pace observation while maintaining tactical flexibility.​

Pace Analysis

The mile distance creates natural pace development with early positioning crucial for success. Sock It to Me brings proven tactical speed that should secure favorable early position. Sticky Note with first-time blinkers may press the early pace, creating honest fractions throughout.

The rail horse Picaro must break alertly to secure position, while the outside horses can rate off the pace and make late moves. Big Lucky shows tactical speed that allows mid-pack positioning with late acceleration capability.

Expected early fractions should develop moderately with acceleration through the final three furlongs determining the outcome. The stretch drive likely features multiple horses with winning chances.

Key Handicapping Angles

The class step-up creates opportunities for horses showing improvement patterns. Sock It to Me’s recent victory suggests peak form timing for the advancement. Sticky Note’s first-time equipment change provides significant angle consideration.

The distance favors horses with proven route experience over pure speed types. Recent workout patterns indicate which horses show training progression toward peak efforts.

Trainer patterns suggest stable confidence levels with class advancements. The Stephen stable entry with Sock It to Me shows careful placement after the recent victory.

Wagering Analysis and Strategy

Race 4 – Ohio-Bred Fillies/Mares Claiming (1 Mile, $19,400)

This restricted event for Ohio-bred females creates opportunities for form analysis based on local breeding.

Key Contenders:
Kingdom Trails shows promising recent form for David Wolochuk with Angel Diaz aboard. The three-year-old filly has been improving with each start.

Total Smokeshow brings proven ability for Stephani Norris with Brandon Tapara riding. The five-year-old mare has tactical speed for the distance.

Secondary Choices:
Cowgirls Humor could provide value despite equipment changes, with Noel Vigil aboard for Robin Schuster’s stable.

Longshots to Consider:
Watch Me Daddy represents Robert Cline’s barn with Luis Rivera riding, potentially offering value at longer odds.

Pace Analysis:
The distance favors tactical speed with positioning key throughout. Expect a moderate pace with acceleration in the stretch.

Selections: Kingdom Trails to win, Total Smokeshow to place

Race 5 – Claiming ($7,500, 1 Mile, $14,900)

This lower-level claiming event features a large field of ten horses seeking class relief.

Key Contenders:
Egyptian King carries top weight with Oscar Villarreal aboard for Karyn Wittek’s stable. Recent form suggests readiness for this level.

Finistere represents Caryn Vecchio’s barn with Fernando Salazar Becerra riding. The five-year-old gelding has shown consistency at this claiming level.

Secondary Choices:
Royally Flushed could bounce back for Amy Sondej with Alexander Crispin aboard, seeking return to winning form.

Longshots to Consider:
Mighty Mo offers value potential with Angel Diaz riding for Larry Smith’s stable at longer odds.

Pace Analysis:
Large field creates pace pressure with multiple speed horses likely pressing early. Value may come from closers.

Selections: Egyptian King to win, Finistere to place

Race 6 – Ohio-Bred Allowance (1 Mile, $35,100)

This feature allowance event represents the highest purse on Monday’s card at Mahoning Valley, attracting quality Ohio-bred horses which have never won three races. The one-mile distance creates tactical opportunities with established form patterns crucial for success.​

Race Conditions and Class Analysis

The $35,100 purse with Ohio Thoroughbred Fund supplements makes this the premier event on the afternoon program. Restricted to registered Ohio-bred horses aged three and upward which have never won three races, the condition creates competitive balance between improving younger horses and established veterans. Weight allowances for non-winners since October 3rd provide additional handicapping considerations for recent form evaluation.​

Detailed Horse Analysis

Runaway Power (Post 3, Fernando Salazar Becerra, Robert Cline)

The 5/2 morning line favorite brings consistent recent form to this allowance feature. This three-year-old gelding by Higher Power shows steady progression through claiming and allowance ranks at Mahoning Valley. The most recent effort on October 21st resulted in a third-place finish, beaten 8.75 lengths, which suggests room for improvement in this spot.​

Salazar Becerra provides experienced riding with tactical awareness for route races. The Cline stable has positioned this horse carefully for the class advancement, and recent training patterns suggest peak conditioning. The inside post position creates both opportunities and potential traffic concerns early in the race.

Finally Friday (Post 4, Ricardo Feliciano, Jevon Crumley)

At 3/1 odds, this three-year-old gelding represents strong value consideration with recent allowance experience. The most recent start came in an allowance race at Thistledown on October 13th, which provides relevant form for today’s engagement. The cross-track form from Thistledown to Mahoning Valley creates angles for class evaluation.​

Feliciano brings tactical riding skills that maximize opportunities from the favorable post position. The Crumley stable shows confidence with the placement in this competitive allowance field. Breeding and distance capability suggest improvement potential at the one-mile trip.

Blazing Tony (Post 2, Angel Diaz, Larry Smith)

The 7/2 third choice represents the accomplished Smith stable with proven success rates. Smith’s 2025 statistics show 13% win rate with 46% in-the-money performance, indicating effective stable management. This three-year-old gelding by Tonalist brings promising breeding for the route distance.​

Diaz provides consistent riding with strong tactical awareness for allowance competition. The rail-adjacent post position allows early positioning flexibility while maintaining clear sailing throughout. Recent stable form suggests readiness for class advancement opportunities.

A Van On the Run (Post 1, Joam Toledo, Candace Huffman)

At 9/2 odds, this four-year-old gelding offers value potential from the rail post. The veteran status provides experience advantages in competitive allowance fields. Toledo brings tactical riding that maximizes opportunities from inside draws.​

The Huffman stable entry suggests confidence in current form cycle. Rail post position creates both pace advantages and potential traffic issues depending on early race development.

Swayback Mobil (Post 6, Erik Barbaran, Rey Juarez-Mendoza)

The 5/1 choice brings consistent recent form with a third-place finish last start at Thistledown. Form analysis shows six placings from nine recent starts, indicating reliability in competitive spots. The four-year-old gelding provides veteran experience for the allowance conditions.​

Barbaran offers experienced riding with good judgment in route situations. The outside post position allows pace observation while maintaining tactical flexibility throughout the race development.

Dixie’s Memory (Post 5, Jose Bracho, Justin Radosevich)

At 6/1 morning line odds, this three-year-old gelding completes the competitive field. The middle post position provides tactical options without early pace pressure. Recent form patterns suggest improvement potential in this allowance spot.​

Pace Analysis

The mile distance favors tactical positioning with pace development crucial for success. Runaway Power brings proven early speed that should secure favorable positioning from the inside draw. A Van On the Run from the rail must break alertly to avoid early traffic issues.

Expected pace development should be moderate with gradual acceleration through the middle stages. The stretch drive likely features multiple horses with winning chances as the route distance allows closing opportunities.

Finally Friday and Blazing Tony possess tactical speed that allows mid-pack positioning with late acceleration capability. Swayback Mobil’s outside post creates options for rating off the pace.

Key Handicapping Angles

Recent cross-track form from Thistledown provides relevant class evaluation for several contenders. Finally Friday’s allowance experience at Thistledown creates positive angle consideration. Swayback Mobil’s consistent recent form suggests reliability in competitive spots.

The Larry Smith stable entry with Blazing Tony shows careful placement based on stable statistics and success patterns. Trainer form cycles indicate which horses show progression toward peak efforts.

Ohio-bred restrictions create opportunities for horses with local breeding advantages and track familiarity. Distance preferences become crucial as the one-mile trip separates speed types from genuine route horses.

Wagering Analysis and Strategy

Race 7 – Allowance (5F Dirt, $26,400)

This sprint allowance race favors pure speed horses with tactical ability over the shorter distance.

Key Contenders:
Golden Flag brings early speed for Timothy Hamm with Rocco Bowen riding. The four-year-old has shown consistent sprint ability.

Excitement represents proven form for Timothy Hamm’s stable with Laureano Sosa aboard, creating a strong barn entry scenario.

Secondary Choices:
Holiday House could provide value with Alexander Crispin riding for Genaro Garcia’s stable at longer odds.

Pace Analysis:
Sprint distance creates immediate pressure with early positioning crucial. Speed horses hold advantages.

Selections: Golden Flag to win, Excitement to place

Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight Fillies (6F Dirt, $31,800)

This closing maiden special weight event for two-year-old Ohio-bred fillies represents the richest maiden race on Monday’s card at Mahoning Valley. The six-furlong sprint distance creates opportunities for early speed horses while the competitive field features several fillies with recent racing experience.​

Race Conditions and Class Analysis

The $31,800 purse with Ohio Thoroughbred Fund supplements attracts quality two-year-old fillies making early career starts. Restricted to accredited Ohio-bred maidens, the condition ensures competitive balance among locally-bred juveniles. The six-furlong distance favors precocious speed types with tactical ability for the sprint trip.​

Detailed Horse Analysis

Castle Queen (Post 6, Rocco Bowen, Timothy Hamm)

The 5/2 morning line favorite brings proven form and strong connections to this maiden test. This two-year-old chestnut filly by National Flag from Palace Malice Girl represents the accomplished Hamm stable. Trainer Timothy Hamm shows impressive career statistics with 794 wins from 6,378 starts and 12% lifetime win rate.​

The most recent start came at Thistledown on October 14th where she encountered traffic problems at the start but showed competitive ability. The experience gained from that maiden effort should benefit her development for today’s engagement. Bowen provides experienced riding with tactical awareness for juvenile races.​

Truest Air (Post 1, Luis Rivera, Michael Rone)

At 3/1 odds, this Air Strike filly offers solid value consideration with recent racing experience. Bred and owned by Michael Rone, she represents stable confidence in her debut potential. The most recent effort at Thistledown on October 14th resulted in a fifth-place finish, providing valuable experience for this maiden assignment.​

The breeding combination of Air Strike over True Cinder suggests early speed potential with tactical ability. Rivera brings consistent riding that maximizes opportunities from the rail post position. The inside draw creates both pace advantages and potential traffic concerns.

Forever Flowing (Post 8, Victor Fernandez, Richard Zielinski)

The 7/2 third choice represents the Zielinski stable with consistent recent form. This Rivers Run Deep filly from Perpetuity has been active at Thistledown with multiple starts providing racing foundation. The breeding suggests tactical speed with route potential as she develops.​

Fernandez provides experienced riding with good judgment for juvenile races. The outside post position allows pace observation while maintaining clear sailing throughout. Recent training patterns suggest readiness for competitive maiden company.

Stacy Ellen (Post 9, Mauro Cedillo, Richard Zielinski)

At 10/1 odds, this stable companion to Forever Flowing creates entry scenario considerations. The Zielinski stable shows confidence with dual entries in this competitive maiden field. Cedillo brings tactical riding skills that could surprise at favorable odds.​

The outside post position provides tactical flexibility while avoiding early pace pressure. Stable entry dynamics suggest one filly may be preferred while the other provides value backup.

Sweet Vivian (Post 3, Yan Aviles, Brian Waltz)

At 6/1 morning line odds, this filly represents promising value consideration. The Waltz stable entry suggests confidence in maiden debut potential. Aviles provides consistent riding with tactical awareness for sprint distances.​

The inside post position creates early positioning opportunities while maintaining tactical flexibility. Recent workout patterns indicate readiness for competitive maiden company.

Miss Lora Ann (Post 5, Oscar Villarreal, Yoni Orantes)

This 8/1 longshot adds first-time blinkers for her maiden debut. The equipment change creates significant angle consideration for handicapping purposes. Villarreal brings experienced riding that maximizes equipment advantages.​

Loco Coco (Post 4, Miguel Martinez, Tina Casalinova)

At 15/1 odds, this filly offers value potential with favorable post position. The Casalinova stable entry suggests debut readiness despite longer odds. Martinez provides tactical riding for maiden company.​

Lil Sharpie (Post 2, Joe Stokes, Ivan Vazquez)

The 15/1 longshot by Jac’s Fact represents value potential. The Vazquez stable shows consistent training methods with juvenile horses. Stokes brings experienced riding for maiden debuts.​

Divine Silence (Post 7, Angel Diaz, Ivan Vazquez)

At 20/1 odds, this filly adds first-time blinkers creating equipment angle considerations. The Vazquez stable entry with dual runners suggests confidence in training methods. Diaz provides tactical riding despite longer odds.​

Pace Analysis

The six-furlong distance creates immediate pace pressure with early positioning crucial for success. Castle Queen brings proven early speed that should secure favorable positioning from the middle post. Truest Air from the rail must break alertly to establish position.

Expected early fractions should develop honestly with multiple fillies showing debut speed potential. The stretch drive likely features tactical positioning determining the outcome as juvenile races often depend on racing experience.

Forever Flowing and Stacy Ellen from the Zielinski stable create pace dynamics with dual entries affecting early positioning. The outside posts allow tactical flexibility while maintaining clear sailing.

Key Handicapping Angles

Recent racing experience provides advantages in competitive maiden fields. Castle Queen and Truest Air both bring Thistledown form that translates to current engagement. The cross-track experience creates positive angle consideration.

First-time equipment changes with Miss Lora Ann and Divine Silence add blinkers creating focus improvements. Equipment angles typically provide value opportunities in maiden races.

Trainer statistics favor the Hamm stable entry with Castle Queen showing consistent success rates. Stable entry scenarios with the Zielinski barn create wagering dynamics with dual representatives.

Wagering Analysis and Strategy

Jockey Notes and Insights

Angel Diaz shows excellent recent form at the meet with multiple riding opportunities today across different race types. His mount Kingdom Trails in Race 4 appears well-positioned.​

Erik Barbaran brings consistent riding ability with strong connections to the Bernardini stable. Doctor Wu in Race 2 creates stable entry value.​

Fernando Salazar Becerra demonstrates tactical riding skills with multiple chances throughout the card. His versatility across different distances shows well.​

Alexander Crispin provides steady riding with good judgment in traffic situations. Multiple mounts suggest confidence from connections.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Timothy Hamm stable shows multiple entries suggesting confidence in today’s conditions. The barn’s sprint specialists deserve attention.​

Robert Cline stable entries across multiple races indicate active approach to current racing conditions. Form cycles suggest readiness.​

Jay Bernardini stable creates entry scenarios in claiming ranks with proven ability at current claiming levels.​

Caryn Vecchio stable demonstrates consistency across different class levels with tactical approaches.​

Best Wagering Strategies

Daily Double Opportunities: Consider connecting Race 1 (Rex Spired) with Race 2 (Valentine Bug) for value potential.

Pick 3 Strategy: Races 2-3-4 offer good handicapping opportunities with Valentine Bug, Sock It to Me, and Kingdom Trails creating reasonable combination costs.

Exacta Value: Race 5’s large field creates exacta opportunities with Egyptian King over multiple horses for higher payouts.

Place/Show Betting: Quality Kiss in Race 1 and Runaway Power in Race 6 offer place value at potentially favorable odds.

Late Pick 4: Races 5-6-7-8 provide challenging but rewarding multi-race wagering with competitive fields requiring skill-based selections.