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Mahoning Valley opens its fall meet today with a solid eight-race card featuring Ohio-bred competition and claiming races that showcase the region’s racing talent. The track begins its October through April season with varied competition levels from maiden special weights to allowance races.
Weather and Track Conditions
Current conditions show patchy rain with temperatures around 47°F and humidity at 97%, creating potentially challenging racing conditions. The forecast indicates continued cool, damp weather with temperatures reaching approximately 60°F by afternoon. Track maintenance crews will monitor surface conditions closely throughout the day, as recent rainfall patterns have produced over 20 rainy days this month across Ohio.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight (12:15 PM)
6 Furlongs Dirt – $31,800 Purse – 2-Year-Old Fillies
Key Contenders: Holiday Betty enters as the morning line favorite for trainer Susan Anderson, who specializes in Ohio-bred development and has produced multiple stakes winners. The filly draws the rail and gets the experienced Victor Lebron aboard.
Secondary Choices: Striking Lady represents trainer Ricardo Bailey and has shown promise in previous outings, while Divine Silence from the Ivan Vazquez barn could offer value at longer odds.
Pace Analysis: The short field suggests a moderate pace setup with Holiday Betty likely setting the early fractions from post one.
Wagering Angles: Holiday Betty is the consensus pick among experts and offers solid win potential, though exacta combinations with Striking Lady and Divine Silence provide better payoff opportunities.
Race 2 – Claiming ($10,000) (12:43 PM)
The four-year-old Gormley filly enters with recent form line 631522 and an Official Rating of 60. Trainer James Jackson maintains solid credentials with a career 18% win rate and 46% in-the-money percentage, though his Mahoning Valley record shows just one win from 14 starts this meet. Jackson’s lifetime earnings exceed $19.6 million, indicating consistent competence at this level. Miss Springsteen finished fifth in her last start, 3¾ lengths behind Mizzen the Point at Thistledown, but has shown competitive form in similar claiming company. The outside post position could prove challenging in the short sprint, but Houghton’s familiarity with the filly provides tactical advantages.
Hello Sweets (Post 5) – Ivan Calderon/Erik Barbaran
The five-year-old mare by Unified represents the most compelling value proposition in this field. Calderon maintains excellent statistics with a 12% win rate and 38% in-the-money percentage, demonstrating consistent stable management. Hello Sweets captured her last start at Thistledown, defeating Mission Girl by 1¾ lengths in a similar claiming race. This recent victory suggests the mare has found her optimal class level and could repeat against similar competition. Barbaran’s aggressive riding style suits the distance, and the inside post position allows tactical flexibility in the early running.
Highly Explosive (Post 1) – Oscar Romero/Miguel Martinez
The eight-year-old Medal Count mare brings veteran experience to this claiming event. Trainer Romero shows respectable 2025 statistics with 4 wins from 33 starts (12% win rate) and 18 total placing finishes (55% in-the-money rate). At age eight, Highly Explosive has extensive racing experience and has competed effectively at this claiming level throughout her career. The rail post position provides early positioning advantages, though the mare’s advancing age raises questions about sustained speed in the stretch drive.
Secondary Contenders
Mizzen the Point (Post 2) – Paul Overholt/Jose Bracho
The six-year-old Mizzen Mast mare demonstrated clear superiority over Miss Springsteen in their most recent encounter, winning by 3¾ lengths. Bracho brings proven experience in Ohio racing circuits and has successfully piloted winners at both Thistledown and Mahoning Valley. The mare’s recent form suggests competitive ability at this claiming level, making her a legitimate threat despite limited public information about her current condition.
Line Dancer (Post 4) – Oscar Romero/Yan Aviles
The seven-year-old Firing Line mare represents Romero’s second entry in the race. While specific recent form information remains limited, the trainer’s decision to enter two horses suggests confidence in both runners’ current condition. Aviles has shown competence aboard Romero trainees in recent starts.
Cause of Love (Post 3) – Nestor Rivera/Alexander Chavez
The nine-year-old Giant Oak mare brings veteran experience but faces the challenge of advancing age in competitive claiming company. Limited recent form information makes assessment difficult, though the mare’s longevity suggests durability at this level.
Pace Analysis
The field composition suggests a moderate pace scenario with multiple horses possessing early speed capabilities. Highly Explosive from the rail could establish early positioning, while Hello Sweets possesses the tactical speed to track the leaders from her favorable post position. Miss Springsteen has shown ability to rate behind pace horses, which could prove advantageous if the early fractions become contested. The 6-furlong distance typically favors horses with tactical speed rather than pure early pace setters, particularly on Mahoning Valley’s configuration.
Trainer and Jockey Angles
James Jackson’s modest 2025 success rate at Mahoning Valley (1-for-14) suggests caution with Miss Springsteen despite her reasonable form figures. Conversely, Ivan Calderon’s consistent statistical performance (12% win rate, 38% ITM) provides confidence in Hello Sweets’ preparation. Oscar Romero’s dual entry strategy with Highly Explosive and Line Dancer indicates stable confidence, supported by his solid 2025 numbers.
Wagering Recommendations
Win Play: Hello Sweets offers the best combination of current form, trainer statistics, and class placement. Her recent victory demonstrates peak current condition.
Place/Show Value: Miss Springsteen could offer place value despite trainer concerns, while Highly Explosive provides show potential based on veteran consistency.
Exacta Strategy: Key Hello Sweets on top over Miss Springsteen and Mizzen the Point for maximum value potential.
Upset Special: At longer odds, Mizzen the Point could provide exacta value underneath if Hello Sweets wins, based on her proven superiority over Miss Springsteen.
Final Assessment
Hello Sweets emerges as the logical choice based on current form, trainer statistics, and favorable pace dynamics.
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming ($7,500) (1:11 PM)
5½ Furlongs Dirt – $12,200 Purse – 3-6 Year Olds
Key Contenders: Rufus gets strong expert backing from handicapper Reggie Garrett despite facing older competition. The three-year-old has shown steady improvement in recent starts.
Secondary Choices: Valid Connection represents the consistent Ivan Calderon stable and could offer value from the inside post.
Pace Analysis: The short distance favors early speed, making post position crucial in this competitive maiden claimer.
Race 4 – Claiming ($4,000) (1:39 PM)
6 Furlongs Dirt – $11,100 Purse – 3+ Non-Winners of Two
Key Contenders: Stay Thirsty Amigo receives expert endorsement and brings proven class to this level. The eight-year-old veteran has tactical speed that suits this distance.
Secondary Choices: Star Shopping and C J All the Way both possess early speed that could factor in the finish.
Pace Analysis: Multiple front-running types suggest a fast early pace that may favor late-running horses.
Race 5 – Claiming ($5,000) (2:07 PM)
1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt – $12,800 Purse – 3+ Non-Winners Since April
Key Contenders: Harvard draws professional support and the class relief suggests improvement potential. The seven-year-old has shown versatility in his racing style.
Secondary Choices: Supply Chain and H C Holiday both bring consistent form to this competitive field.
Pace Analysis: The longer distance should favor horses with proven stamina, making pace dynamics crucial for handicapping success.
Race 6 – Starter Allowance (2:35 PM)
6 Furlongs Dirt – $18,400 Purse – Previous $7,500 Claimers
Key Contenders: Trikitraki earns expert backing and has shown consistent form in similar company. The six-year-old’s recent efforts suggest readiness for this spot.
Secondary Choices: Minister for Magic under Angel Diaz provides value potential, while Rhumjar brings proven ability at this level.
Pace Analysis: The quality of this field suggests a competitive pace setup that could favor horses with tactical speed.
Race 7 – Allowance (3:03 PM)
The seven-year-old Field Commission mare represents the strongest statistical trainer in this field with Jeffrey Radosevich posting exceptional 2025 numbers: 88 wins from 417 starts (21% win rate) and 56% in-the-money percentage. The veteran trainer has earned over $2 million in 2025 and ranks among the leading conditioners nationally. Dreaming of Audrey enters with solid recent form, finishing second by 2¾ lengths behind Lubu at Thistledown in her last start, demonstrating competitive ability at this level. The mare’s consistent form line of 532242 indicates reliable performance, and her breeding by Field Commission suggests stamina for the mile distance. Barbaran has developed strong chemistry with Radosevich trainees, and their partnership has produced multiple winners in 2025.
Late Nite Lizzie (Post 2) – Rey Juarez-Mendoza/Jose Bracho
The four-year-old Palace Malice filly brings winning momentum from her September 9 victory at Thistledown, where she captured a starter optional claiming event. Trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza has developed this filly carefully, and she represents one of his stable stars with career earnings of $36,724. Late Nite Lizzie’s Palace Malice breeding provides the stamina and class necessary for allowance competition, and her recent victory demonstrates peak current condition. The filly has shown consistent improvement throughout her career, and the step up to allowance company appears logical based on her recent performance. Bracho adds tactical expertise and has proven effective aboard Juarez-Mendoza trainees.
Sacred Connection (Post 5) – Ricardo Bailey/T.D. Houghton
The four-year-old Connect filly represents trainer Ricardo Bailey, who maintains multiple runners on today’s card at Mahoning Valley. Bailey has demonstrated competence at this venue with previous allowance winners, and Sacred Connection’s breeding by Connect suggests quality bloodlines suitable for this level. The trainer’s presence with multiple horses today indicates stable confidence and preparation, while Houghton provides experienced race-riding tactics. Connect as a sire has produced multiple stakes winners, giving this filly solid genetic potential for allowance success.
Secondary Contenders
Fiveclocksomewhere (Post 1) – Pedro Nazario/Alexander Crispin
The three-year-old Quality Road filly receives a two-pound weight allowance and represents promising breeding for allowance competition. Quality Road has sired multiple graded stakes winners, and this filly’s youth combined with the breeding suggests upside potential. The rail post position provides tactical advantages for early positioning in the mile route.
Elika (Post 3) – Ricardo Bailey/Deshawn Parker
The five-year-old Bandbox mare provides Bailey with a second entry in this competitive field. The trainer’s decision to run two horses suggests confidence in stable preparation, and Parker brings proven experience at Mahoning Valley.
Derby Day Kiss (Post 6) – Robert Cline/Victor Fernandez
The four-year-old Klimt filly represents outside posting but brings breeding credentials from her sire’s European success. The wide post creates tactical challenges in the mile route, limiting upset potential.
Pace Analysis
The field composition suggests a moderate pace setup with multiple horses possessing stalking ability rather than pure speed. Dreaming of Audrey has shown tactical versatility in recent starts, while Late Nite Lizzie demonstrated closing ability in her recent victory. Sacred Connection’s Connect breeding typically favors horses that can rate behind pace and finish strongly. The mile distance favors horses with proven stamina and tactical positioning ability, making post position crucial for optimal trip development.
Trainer and Jockey Analysis
Jeffrey Radosevich leads all connections with his outstanding 2025 performance statistics. His 21% win rate represents elite-level training, and the stable’s $2.057 million in earnings demonstrates consistent quality. The Radosevich/Barbaran combination has proven highly effective throughout 2025.
Rey Juarez-Mendoza has developed Late Nite Lizzie carefully and shows expertise with Palace Malice offspring. His patient approach with this filly has produced steady improvement and recent success.
Ricardo Bailey demonstrates confidence by entering two horses, suggesting optimal stable preparation. His familiarity with Mahoning Valley conditions provides tactical advantages.
Class and Distance Considerations
The allowance conditions favor horses with proven ability beyond maiden and claiming levels. Dreaming of Audrey’s extensive racing experience at age seven provides class advantages, while Late Nite Lizzie’s recent victory suggests she has found her optimal level. The mile distance requires proven stamina, favoring the Field Commission and Palace Malice breeding represented by the top contenders.
Wagering Recommendations
Win Play: Dreaming of Audrey offers the strongest combination of trainer statistics, recent form, and class credentials. Radosevich’s 21% win rate provides exceptional confidence.
Value Play: Late Nite Lizzie presents solid value potential based on recent victory and improving form pattern.
Exacta Strategy: Key Dreaming of Audrey over Late Nite Lizzie and Sacred Connection for optimal risk-reward balance.
Trifecta Approach: Use Dreaming of Audrey and Late Nite Lizzie in the top two positions over Sacred Connection and Fiveclocksomewhere in third.
Final Assessment
Dreaming of Audrey represents the logical choice based on Jeffrey Radosevich’s exceptional training statistics and the mare’s consistent recent form. The combination of elite trainer performance, proven class ability, and tactical jockey expertise creates the strongest winning scenario in this competitive allowance field. Late Nite Lizzie provides the primary challenge based on recent victory and natural progression to this level.
Race 8 – Ohio-Bred Allowance (3:31 PM)
The three-year-old Omaha Beach colt represents the premier Ohio-bred trainer in Susan Anderson, whose career statistics showcase remarkable consistency with 794 wins from 6,378 starts (12% win rate) and over $12.2 million earned. Anderson’s 2025 campaign shows 3 wins from 24 starts with 46% in-the-money percentage, demonstrating maintained quality at age 79. More importantly, Anderson bred and developed Kentucky Derby contender Jonathan’s Way, establishing her credentials at the highest levels. Wasabi Beach enters in peak form following his October 2 victory at Belterra Park, where he dominated a similar field under Victor Lebron. The Omaha Beach breeding provides both speed and stamina necessary for allowance competition, and his recent 19-length margin of victory suggests significant improvement. Anderson’s expertise with Ohio-breds makes this colt the logical choice in his home-bred conditions.
Double Agent (Post 2) – Timothy Hamm/Rocco Bowen
The four-year-old Algorithms gelding represents trainer Timothy Hamm, whose distinguished career includes Grade 1 success with Dayoutoftheoffice in the 2020 Frizette Stakes. Hamm’s 2025 statistics show exceptional performance with 111 wins from 525 starts (21% win rate) and over $2.9 million earned, ranking among the nation’s leading trainers. The Hamm/Bowen combination has proven highly effective throughout 2025 with 48 combined winners. Double Agent captured his maiden victory at Mahoning Valley in October 2024 under Bowen, demonstrating familiarity with both track and rider. His recent form line shows consistent effort in allowance company, and the class relief to Ohio-bred conditions suggests competitive potential.
Fourdatesforhoco (Post 1) – Craig Sweeting/Luis Batista
The three-year-old Tale of Ekati colt draws the rail position and represents trainer Craig Sweeting’s family operation. The colt’s breeding by Tale of Ekati provides proven stamina for the 6-furlong distance, and his three-year-old status allows for natural improvement. Sweeting’s training approach focuses on patient development, and this colt has shown steady progress throughout his career. The rail post position provides tactical advantages for early positioning, particularly important in the competitive allowance field.
Secondary Contenders
Kozy K (Post 3) – Larry Smith/Jose Bracho
The three-year-old colt represents trainer Larry Smith, who also conditions Blazing Tony in this field. Smith’s decision to enter two horses suggests stable confidence in current condition. Bracho brings proven experience with a solid 2025 record, though specific statistics remain limited. The colt’s recent form shows competitive efforts in similar company, making him a potential factor at longer odds.
A Van On the Run (Post 4) – Candace Huffman/Joam Toledo
The four-year-old Get Stormy gelding has shown consistent form throughout 2025 with multiple placings in allowance company. Trainer Huffman maintains steady performance with this gelding, and his recent second-place finishes at Thistledown demonstrate competitive ability. Toledo has developed strong chemistry with Huffman trainees, and the gelding’s proven versatility makes him a threat at this level.
Blazing Tony (Post 7) – Larry Smith/Angel Diaz
Smith’s second entry provides tactical options and suggests training confidence. The three-year-old status allows for natural improvement, and Diaz brings proven experience at Mahoning Valley with multiple winners throughout 2025.
Long-Range Possibilities
Leroyisalagniappe (Post 8) – Robert Bennett/Jann Hernandez
The seven-year-old veteran brings extensive racing experience but faces challenges from advancing age against younger competition. His consistency over the years suggests potential for minor awards.
Runaway Power (Post 5) and Kickstart (Post 9) represent additional three-year-old entries with room for improvement in Ohio-bred company.
Pace Analysis
The field composition suggests a moderate pace with multiple horses possessing tactical speed rather than pure early speed. Wasabi Beach has shown ability to rate behind pace and finish strongly, while Double Agent possesses tactical versatility that suits various pace scenarios. The 6-furlong distance favors horses with proven acceleration, making positioning crucial for optimal trip development. Fourdatesforhoco from the rail could establish early positioning, while the outside horses face tactical challenges in the competitive field.
Trainer and Breeding Analysis
Susan Anderson’s dominance in Ohio-bred racing provides Wasabi Beach with significant advantages. Her breeding program has produced multiple stakes winners, and her patient development approach maximizes genetic potential. Timothy Hamm’s national success record suggests Double Agent receives optimal preparation despite competing in Ohio-bred company. The trainer’s Grade 1 experience provides tactical advantages in competitive allowance fields.
Ohio-Bred Considerations
The race benefits Ohio-bred horses with enhanced purse supplements of $15,000 total, making this a highly competitive field. Anderson’s breeding expertise and regional knowledge provide distinct advantages, while Hamm’s national experience brings different perspectives to Ohio competition. The allowance conditions favor horses with proven ability beyond maiden and claiming levels, making class evaluation crucial.
Wagering Recommendations
Win Play: Wasabi Beach offers the strongest combination of trainer expertise, recent form, and breeding credentials. Anderson’s Ohio-bred success record provides exceptional confidence.
Value Play: Double Agent presents solid exacta value based on Hamm’s training excellence and proven class ability at higher levels.
Longshot Special: Fourdatesforhoco from the rail could provide upset potential if early pace develops favorably.
Exacta Strategy: Key Wasabi Beach over Double Agent and Fourdatesforhoco for optimal risk-reward balance.
Trifecta Approach: Use Wasabi Beach and Double Agent in the top two positions over A Van On the Run and Kozy K in third position.
Final Assessment
Wasabi Beach represents the logical choice based on Susan Anderson’s exceptional Ohio-bred training record and the colt’s recent dominant victory. The combination of elite breeding expertise, proven recent form, and optimal class placement creates the strongest winning scenario in this competitive allowance field. Double Agent provides the primary challenge based on Timothy Hamm’s national training success and proven allowance ability. The Ohio-bred conditions favor local expertise, making Anderson’s regional knowledge a decisive advantage in this $35,100 feature event.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Angel Diaz appears on four mounts today and has shown strong recent form at Mahoning Valley. His tactical riding style suits the varying pace scenarios expected throughout the card.
Mauro Cedillo brings proven experience and has demonstrated consistent performance in Ohio racing circuits. His two mounts today should be competitive in their respective divisions.
Erik Barbaran rides three horses and possesses the aggressive style that works well on shorter-priced horses seeking upset potential.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Susan Anderson operates one of Ohio’s most successful breeding and training operations. Her expertise with Ohio-bred horses makes Holiday Betty and Wasabi Beach strong contenders in their respective races. Anderson’s “horse first” approach has produced multiple stakes winners and her runners consistently outperform their odds.
Ivan Calderon maintains a solid stable and his horses typically show up ready to compete at appropriate class levels.
Ricardo Bailey has developed a reputation for improving horses through patient development programs.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Single Play: Holiday Betty in Race 1 offers the strongest win probability based on trainer expertise and breeding advantage.
Value Exacta: Race 6 – Trikitraki over Minister for Magic provides solid value potential with two proven performers at this level.
Longshot Special: Hello Sweets in Race 2 at morning line odds around 5-1 could provide upset potential in a competitive claiming race.
Daily Double: Races 1-2, combining Holiday Betty with Miss Springsteen offers reasonable risk-reward potential to start the day.
Pick 3 Strategy: Races 6-7-8 using Trikitraki, Dreaming of Audrey, and Wasabi Beach as singles provides a manageable approach to the day’s strongest races.
Image Credits
In-Article Image Credits
Mahoning Valley Race Course via Wikimedia Commons with usage type - Creative Commons LicenseFeatured Image Credit
Mahoning Valley Race Course via Wikimedia Commons with usage type - Creative Commons License
