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Mahoning Valley Race Course in Youngstown, Ohio presents an eight-race card today featuring a mix of claiming, allowance, and maiden special weight events on the dirt. Purses range from $10,900 (Race 3) to $25,900 (Race 2), with the card anchored by a quality maiden special weight finale carrying a $24,300 purse that draws shippers from top-tier connections including Wesley Ward and Eddie Kenneally.
The card opens at 12:15 PM ET with a one-mile claiming event for fillies and mares, and closes with a six-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies at 3:31 PM ET. Distances range from 5 1/2 furlongs (Race 3) to one mile (Races 1, 2, and 5), providing a blend of sprint and route races that should test different running styles throughout the afternoon.
The scratch watch bears monitoring. Krissys Star (PP1, Race 2) is flagged for a potential scratch by the trainer, which would significantly reshape the heavy morning-line favorite dynamic in the allowance contest. Whats Goin On (PP3, Race 3) is on veterinarian watch, Pace (PP5, Race 5) is flagged by stewards, and Academic Freedom (PP7, Race 8) carries a veterinarian flag. Bettors should verify final entries before committing to wagers.
Weather and Track Conditions
Today’s weather in the Youngstown, Ohio area is remarkably mild for mid-February. The forecast calls for a high of 48 to 61 degrees Fahrenheit, well above the February average of 21 to 33 degrees, with overcast skies and a chance of patchy light rain. Humidity is elevated at around 85 to 90 percent, with winds from the south at approximately 17 mph. Precipitation amounts, if any, should be modest at around 2.9 mm.
For the track surface, the unusually warm temperatures over the past several days — yesterday reached 58 degrees — suggest the dirt should be in good condition, likely labeled fast or possibly good depending on any overnight moisture. The freeze-thaw cycle that can deaden the Mahoning Valley rail during typical winter conditions is less likely to be a dominant factor today given the sustained warmth. However, the elevated humidity and potential for light rain could produce a slightly moisture-laden surface as the afternoon progresses. Horseplayers should watch early race results closely for signs of how the track is playing.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Mahoning Valley typically features a speed-favoring profile, especially in six-furlong sprints where horses that secure the front or sit close to it often hold a tactical edge. Inside to middle post positions are mildly advantageous in sprints because they allow runners to save ground into the single turn while still having options to establish early position.
Seasonal factors can occasionally produce a dead rail during the heart of winter, creating what many horseplayers describe as an outside-flow bias where paths two to four off the fence become preferred lanes. With today’s above-normal temperatures and a relatively dry recent pattern, that extreme winter rail penalty is less likely to be a dominant factor. However, early-race observation remains important. If inside horses underperform with clean trips in Races 1 and 3, an outside-lane preference may still be in play.
At the one-mile distance, which uses a short run into the first turn, inside post positions become more valuable because wide-drawn runners must either use extra energy to clear or accept ground loss into the first bend. Tactical speed combined with an inside or low-middle gate remains the ideal profile for the route races on this card, notably Races 1, 2, and 5, where early positioning into that first turn can be decisive.
Race 1 — Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $20,400
Post Time: 12:15 PM ET
Fillies and mares, three years old and upward. Claiming price $10,000. Six runners.
Morning line odds: The Shoe Lady (PP2, 2/1), Redwhiteandtacos (PP3, 5/2), Goshen (PP5, 3/1), Candymonium (PP6, 4/1), Divine Fashion (PP1, 8/1), Mo Co Gold (PP4, 15/1).
Pace Analysis
This mile race on a small field should produce a moderate pace. Goshen (PP5) and The Shoe Lady (PP2) both possess some tactical speed and should be prominent early. With only six runners, there is unlikely to be a contested pace, which slightly favors horses that can establish position without burning energy. The short run to the first turn rewards inside posts, giving The Shoe Lady (PP2) and Divine Fashion (PP1) a built-in advantage in the run to the first bend.
Key Contenders
The Shoe Lady (PP2) is installed as the 2/1 morning-line favorite and draws a favorable inside post for the mile distance. Jockey Luis Raul Rivera, one of the top riders at this meet, has the leg up, and trainer Jeffrey Radosevich has been competitive throughout the current meeting. The five-year-old mare should be forwardly placed from the start and has the rail-saving advantage of the two-post at one mile.
Redwhiteandtacos (PP3) is the 5/2 second choice and also benefits from a mid-inside draw. Trained by Jay Bernardini, who holds multiple training titles at Mahoning Valley, this seven-year-old mare has the consistency and class to be in the mix throughout. Jockey Brandon Tapara keeps the mount.
Goshen (PP5) at 3/1 is the only runner without Lasix, which is notable at this level. Trained by Nestor Rivera and ridden by David Haldar, this six-year-old mare has tactical speed and should be positioned close to the pace. The wide post is a slight negative at one mile, but the small field mitigates the draw disadvantage.
Secondary Choices
Candymonium (PP6) at 4/1 received attention from handicappers as a top selection in this spot. Trained by Jeffrey Skerrett with his apprentice Jefferson Skerrett aboard at a reduced weight of 119 pounds, the five-pound weight concession could be meaningful over a mile. She draws widest in this small field, which is a concern, but the lighter impost is a factor.
Longshots
Divine Fashion (PP1) at 8/1 draws the rail, which is the premium post at one mile. If the rail is playing fairly today, this seven-year-old trained by Ricardo Bailey could outrun her odds simply by saving ground throughout. Mo Co Gold (PP4) at 15/1 seems overmatched on recent form.
Selections
Win: The Shoe Lady (PP2)
Place: Candymonium (PP6)
Show: Redwhiteandtacos (PP3)
Wagering angle: The small field limits exotic payoffs, but an exacta box of PP2 with PP3 and PP6 makes sense. If Candymonium can take advantage of the five-pound weight break and sit a patient trip, she could reward bettors at decent odds.
Race 2 — Allowance, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $25,900
Post Time: 12:43 PM ET
Fillies and mares, three years old and upward, non-winners of two races. Six runners.
Morning line odds: Krissys Star (PP1, 1/1), Supersonic Agenda (PP6, 7/2), Total Luna Eclipse (PP5, 9/2), Nixon’s Time (PP3, 6/1), Tiz Mia (PP4, 8/1), Unchained Spirit (PP2, 10/1).
NOTE: Krissys Star (PP1) is on the scratch watch (trainer). If scratched, this race is entirely reshaped.
Pace Analysis
If Krissys Star runs, this race revolves around her. The even-money favorite projects to be forwardly placed from the rail, and with the short run to the first turn, the one-post is ideal for establishing position with minimal effort. The pace should be moderate to slow with Krissys Star likely controlling tempo on the lead or pressing. If she scratches, the race opens up dramatically, and pace dynamics shift toward a more contested early battle between Total Luna Eclipse (PP5) and Supersonic Agenda (PP6).
Key Contenders
Krissys Star (PP1) is an overwhelming 1/1 favorite who shipped from Turfway Park and carries Deshawn Parker. Trained by William Morey, this three-year-old filly drew the ideal rail post for the one-mile trip. If she runs, she is the one to beat.
Supersonic Agenda (PP6) at 7/2 is trained by Ricardo Bailey and ridden by Victor Fernandez. This three-year-old is making her second career start after Bailey elected to bring her here. At this price, she offers fair value if Krissys Star scratches.
Secondary Choices
Total Luna Eclipse (PP5) at 9/2, trained by Devarus Douglass with Jose Bracho riding, is a four-year-old who has some back class and could be the main beneficiary if the favorite is withdrawn.
Nixon’s Time (PP3) at 6/1 is a four-year-old trained by Robert Gorham with Luis Alberto Batista in the irons. Batista is a former meet-leading rider at Mahoning Valley and knows the track well.
Longshots
Tiz Mia (PP4) at 8/1 and Unchained Spirit (PP2) at 10/1 appear to be class-challenged in this spot, though Unchained Spirit gets Rocco Bowen up.
Selections
Win: Krissys Star (PP1)
Place: Supersonic Agenda (PP6)
Show: Total Luna Eclipse (PP5)
Wagering angle: If Krissys Star runs, there is little value betting her at even money. Consider keying her in exactas on top of PP6 and PP5. If she scratches, Supersonic Agenda and Total Luna Eclipse become strong plays at much better odds. Monitor the scratch watch carefully.
Race 3 — Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $10,900
Post Time: 1:11 PM ET
Fillies and mares, three years old and upward. Claiming price $4,000. Seven runners.
Morning line odds: A Kiss for Khozan (PP7, 1/1), Vitaemi (PP5, 4/1), Special Beach (PP6, 9/2), Opulent Ways (PP2, 6/1), Extra Crafty (PP4, 10/1), Danzing Chick (PP1, 12/1), Whats Goin On (PP3, 15/1).
NOTE: Whats Goin On (PP3) is on the scratch watch (veterinarian).
Pace Analysis
At 5 1/2 furlongs, early speed is king at Mahoning Valley. This is a short sprint where horses that secure position quickly tend to hold their advantage. A Kiss for Khozan (PP7) has been installed as the heavy even-money favorite and should have enough speed to be prominent despite the outside draw. Danzing Chick (PP1) and Opulent Ways (PP2) may look to establish early position from their inside draws. The pace could be honest if multiple runners push for the lead, which could set up for horses sitting just off the pace.
Key Contenders
A Kiss for Khozan (PP7) is the dominant 1/1 morning-line choice, trained by Jeff Fletcher with Yuri Yaranga in the irons. This six-year-old mare appears to be a significant class drop into the $4,000 claiming level and towers over this field on ability. The outside post at 5 1/2 furlongs is the only concern, but at this rock-bottom level, superior talent should overcome the draw.
Secondary Choices
Vitaemi (PP5) at 4/1 is an 11-year-old veteran trained by Ivan Calderon with Laureano Sosa riding. Her experience at this distance and level gives her a shot to pick up the minor awards.
Special Beach (PP6) at 9/2 was a top selection among handicappers for this race. Trained by Joseph Mahan with Alejandro Gomez aboard, this nine-year-old mare may be sitting just off the pace and could benefit if the speed types tire.
Longshots
Opulent Ways (PP2) at 6/1 draws well inside for the sprint distance and gets Rocco Bowen up, which is a rider upgrade at this level. Extra Crafty (PP4) at 10/1 and Danzing Chick (PP1) at 12/1 are hard to recommend against the overwhelming favorite.
Selections
Win: A Kiss for Khozan (PP7)
Place: Special Beach (PP6)
Show: Vitaemi (PP5)
Wagering angle: This is not a betting race at the win level — the favorite is too short. If you must play, consider a small exacta or trifecta keying PP7 on top of PP5, PP6, and PP2 for modest returns. The better play may be to pass this race and save your bankroll.
Race 4 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $20,400
Post Time: 1:39 PM ET
Fillies and mares, three years old and upward. Claiming price $10,000. Seven runners.
Morning line odds: Honey Bella (PP2, 9/5), Miss Fussy Pants (PP5, 5/2), Big Ginger (PP7, 3/1), Ashlee’s Ring (PP1, 5/1), Sheisthehero (PP6, 12/1), Comida Comida (PP3, 15/1), Ceviche (PP4, 15/1).
Pace Analysis
At six furlongs, inside-to-middle posts have a mild edge at Mahoning Valley. This race shapes up with some early speed from Honey Bella (PP2) and Miss Fussy Pants (PP5), both of whom like to be positioned near the front. Ashlee’s Ring (PP1) from the rail may also show speed. With three potential pace players, the early fractions could be contested, which might set up for a closer like Big Ginger (PP7) if the speed types burn each other out.
Key Contenders
Honey Bella (PP2) is the 9/5 morning-line favorite, trained by Jay Bernardini and ridden by Brandon Tapara. This seven-year-old mare draws well in the two-hole for a six-furlong sprint and has the Bernardini training title pedigree behind her. She was 9/2 in a race on February 3 at a similar level, suggesting connections believe she is ready to fire a big effort here.
Miss Fussy Pants (PP5) at 5/2 is trained by Nestor Rivera and ridden by Luis Raul Rivera, who ran well in an allowance event just yesterday (February 17) at Mahoning Valley. This six-year-old mare has tactical speed and class, and the jockey-trainer combination is among the strongest on the grounds. Handicappers flagged Miss Fussy Pants as a top pick in this race.
Secondary Choices
Big Ginger (PP7) at 3/1, trained by Ivan Calderon with Laureano Sosa aboard, is an eight-year-old veteran who may sit off what could be a contested pace. If the speed falters, she has the closing ability to pick up the pieces. The outside draw is a slight negative but manageable in a seven-horse field.
Ashlee’s Ring (PP1) at 5/1 draws the rail for the Bernardini stable (Luis Tapara up). The rail is the prime spot in a six-furlong sprint if the inside is playing fairly. This represents a stablemate entry with Honey Bella, and Bernardini splitting runners across two posts is notable.
Longshots
Sheisthehero (PP6) at 12/1 is another runner from the Loudin-Smith barn. Comida Comida (PP3) at 15/1 and Ceviche (PP4) at 15/1 appear outclassed.
Selections
Win: Miss Fussy Pants (PP5)
Place: Honey Bella (PP2)
Show: Big Ginger (PP7)
Wagering angle: This is a competitive race with legitimate contenders at fair prices. An exacta box of PP5, PP2, and PP7 could produce a solid payout. For trifecta players, consider PP5 and PP2 on top, with PP7 and PP1 in the second and third slots.
Race 5 — Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $14,900
Post Time: 2:07 PM ET
Three years old and upward, non-winners of four races. Claiming price $7,500. Eleven entries (10 plus an also-eligible).
Morning line odds: Tetched (PP9, 5/2), Pittsburgh (PP1, 7/2), Pace (PP5, 9/2), Valid Connection (PP4, 6/1), Z Boss (PP6, 8/1), Kykeon (PP2, 10/1), All My Life (PP8, 10/1), Citizen (PP10, 12/1), Succession Gold (PP7, 20/1), Cowboy Justice (PP3, 20/1).
NOTE: Pace (PP5) is on the scratch watch (stewards). Also-eligible Finistere (PP99) would draw in if a scratch occurs.
Pace Analysis
This is the most complex race on the card with a full field at one mile. The short run to the first turn at Mahoning Valley places a premium on inside draws, which works in favor of Pittsburgh (PP1) and Kykeon (PP2). The pace should be moderate with several runners capable of pressing — Pittsburgh, Valid Connection (PP4), and Pace (PP5, if he runs) all show some early foot. Tetched (PP9) drew wide, which is a genuine concern at this distance at Mahoning Valley. He will need to either burn energy to get position or accept racing from behind.
Key Contenders
Tetched (PP9) is the 5/2 morning-line favorite. Handicappers noted that he narrowly missed out in his last start and looks primed for a big run. However, post nine at one mile at Mahoning Valley is a significant negative. Rider Luis Raul Rivera will need to manage the break carefully. Despite the draw, his form is the best in this field, with a winning effort at the one-mile and 70-yard distance in December.
Pittsburgh (PP1) at 7/2 draws the coveted rail post for the mile trip. Trained by Robert Cline with Victor Fernandez aboard, this seven-year-old gelding has been consistent in this class. The rail draw alone could be worth a length or more at this distance, making him a serious threat to the favorite.
Secondary Choices
Valid Connection (PP4) at 6/1 comes off a winning effort on February 1 and merits respect. Jose Bracho’s two-win February adds confidence. The four-post is a solid draw for the mile.
Z Boss (PP6) at 8/1 won at Mahoning Valley on December 22 and has competitive form throughout the meet. David Haldar has been competitive in the irons this season.
Longshots
Citizen (PP10) at 12/1 won on January 12 at Mahoning Valley over one mile and 70 yards and could outrun his odds from a wide post if the pace is honest enough to come back to him. Kykeon (PP2) at 10/1 draws well inside and could stalk from a forward position. All My Life (PP8) at 10/1 is a lightly raced four-year-old making a claiming debut for Caryn Vecchio.
Selections
Win: Pittsburgh (PP1)
Place: Tetched (PP9)
Show: Valid Connection (PP4)
Wagering angle: This is the race to attack on the card. The large field and full gate create exacta and trifecta opportunities. Pittsburgh at 7/2 from the rail offers genuine value against the wider-drawn favorite. Consider a trifecta key of PP1 and PP9 on top, using PP4, PP6, and PP10 underneath. For the Pick 5 (if it begins here), this is a spread race where multiple horses deserve inclusion.
Race 6 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $20,400
Post Time: 2:35 PM ET
Three years old and upward. Claiming price $10,000. Nine runners.
Morning line odds: Stomping Moon (PP9, 3/1), Ramsey (PP3, 7/2), Unpredictable Bay (PP4, 4/1), Morethanreadyeddie (PP2, 6/1), Doctor Wu (PP5, 8/1), More Love (PP8, 8/1), Cool Couple (PP6, 10/1), Stormin’unclejack (PP7, 10/1), Panthor (PP1, 15/1).
Pace Analysis
This is a nine-horse sprint with significant early speed. Ramsey (PP3), Unpredictable Bay (PP4), Doctor Wu (PP5), and More Love (PP8) all show varying degrees of tactical speed, suggesting the pace could be honest to fast. Stomping Moon (PP9) is the morning-line favorite but draws the outside post in a full sprint field, which is a significant concern. Closers or horses that can sit just off a contested pace should benefit if the speed burns itself out.
Key Contenders
Stomping Moon (PP9) at 3/1 is trained by Jay Bernardini with Luis Alberto Batista riding — a potent combination that previously led the jockey and trainer standings at this track. This six-year-old gelding is clearly the class of the field, but the nine-post in a nine-horse sprint at Mahoning Valley is a genuine concern. He will need racing luck.
Ramsey (PP3) at 7/2 was a top selection among handicappers for this race. Trained by Jabdiel Castillo with Jose Bracho in the irons, this six-year-old gelding draws a favorable inside post for the six-furlong distance and should be forwardly placed from the break.
Secondary Choices
Unpredictable Bay (PP4) at 4/1, trained by Nestor Rivera with Alexander Chavez up, draws a solid mid-inside post and has the tactical speed to sit a perfect stalking trip behind the leaders. If the early pace is hot, he could pick up the pieces.
Morethanreadyeddie (PP2) at 6/1 draws well inside and could press the pace from the two-post. Angel Diaz rides for trainer Ricardo Gonzalez.
Longshots
Cool Couple (PP6) at 10/1 is trained by Jason DaCosta, the Jamaican champion trainer who scored a one-two finish at Mahoning Valley on January 2. Rocco Bowen rides, and this four-year-old gelding could improve. More Love (PP8) at 8/1 gets Victor Fernandez for Ricardo Bailey and has some back form at this distance.
Selections
Win: Ramsey (PP3)
Place: Unpredictable Bay (PP4)
Show: Stomping Moon (PP9)
Wagering angle: The favorite’s outside draw creates value on the inside speed types. Ramsey at 7/2 from post 3 and Unpredictable Bay at 4/1 from post 4 both offer better value than the wide-drawn favorite. An exacta box of PP3, PP4, and PP9 is the primary play. For a trifecta, add PP2 and PP6 in the third position.
Race 7 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $14,600
Post Time: 3:03 PM ET
Fillies and mares, three years old and upward, non-winners of two races. Claiming price $7,500. Eight runners.
Morning line odds: Grand Golden Road (PP4, 5/2), Stella E Veloce (PP5, 3/1), Nun Gimel Hay Po (PP6, 7/2), Dream Life (PP8, 9/2), Fromthewonderland (PP7, 8/1), Ruby River (PP2, 10/1), Solo Surprise (PP1, 12/1), Small Town Heroine (PP3, 15/1).
Pace Analysis
This sprint should see several runners with early speed, including Grand Golden Road (PP4) and Stella E Veloce (PP5), both of whom figure to press. Nun Gimel Hay Po (PP6) can also show speed. With an eight-horse field, the pace should be honest, and the inside posts have an edge in a sprint setting. Dream Life (PP8) draws wide and may need to come from off the pace.
Key Contenders
Grand Golden Road (PP4) at 5/2 is the morning-line favorite, trained by Eric Reed, the 2022 Kentucky Derby-winning conditioner, with Bailey Weatherly aboard. Reed’s presence at Mahoning Valley adds credibility to any runner from his barn, and this four-year-old filly draws a solid mid-post for the sprint distance.
Stella E Veloce (PP5) at 3/1 is trained by Richard Zielinski with Brandon Tapara riding. This four-year-old filly has tactical speed and draws just outside the favorite, putting her in a prime stalking position.
Secondary Choices
Nun Gimel Hay Po (PP6) at 7/2 was selected as a top pick by handicappers. Trained by Jeff Fletcher with Yuri Yaranga in the irons, this five-year-old mare has experience at this level and could sit a perfect trip just off the leaders.
Dream Life (PP8) at 9/2 is another Eric Reed trainee, giving the Kentucky Derby winner two shots in this race. Charle Oliveros rides, and the wide draw is a concern, though her closing style could benefit if the pace is fast.
Longshots
Fromthewonderland (PP7) at 8/1 gets Angel Diaz up for trainer Kevin Buttigieg. Ruby River (PP2) at 10/1 draws well inside with Alexander Chavez and could outrun her odds if the rail is playing. Small Town Heroine (PP3) at 15/1 runs for Ricardo Bailey with Rocco Bowen, which is a solid jockey-trainer combination.
Selections
Win: Grand Golden Road (PP4)
Place: Nun Gimel Hay Po (PP6)
Show: Stella E Veloce (PP5)
Wagering angle: This is a contentious race with four legitimate contenders separated by just 3.5 points on the morning line. An exacta box of PP4, PP5, and PP6 is the base play. For a trifecta, add PP8 into the mix. Eric Reed having two runners (PP4 and PP8) is worth noting — if one scratches, the remaining runner may receive extra attention from the barn.
Race 8 — Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $24,300
Post Time: 3:31 PM ET
Maidens, fillies three years old. Weight 122 lbs. Seven runners.
Morning line odds: Making Daisys (PP2, 8/5), Allatou (PP1, 5/2), Academic Freedom (PP7, 7/2), Lady Midshipman (PP5, 6/1), Run On Candy (PP3, 8/1), Scary Jerry (PP6, 15/1), Olive On Top (PP4, 20/1).
NOTE: Academic Freedom (PP7) is on the scratch watch (veterinarian).
Pace Analysis
This maiden sprint should feature moderate early speed. Making Daisys (PP2) showed some positional ability in her Aqueduct effort and should be forwardly placed. Allatou (PP1) from the rail can save ground. Academic Freedom (PP7), if she runs, may show some early foot. With seven runners, the pace should be manageable, favoring horses with tactical speed and good post position.
Key Contenders
Making Daisys (PP2) is the 8/5 morning-line favorite and the marquee runner on the entire card. This three-year-old filly by Gun Runner, who sold for $200,000 as a weanling, is trained by the internationally renowned Wesley Ward. Ward, known for his success at Royal Ascot and with precocious juveniles, ships Making Daisys to Mahoning Valley for her third career start after a third-place finish at Aqueduct on December 27. Rocco Bowen takes the mount, and the two-post is ideal for a sprint. The combination of pedigree, connections, and improving form makes her the one to beat.
Allatou (PP1) at 5/2 is trained by Eddie Kenneally, a multiple Grade 1-winning conditioner based at Keeneland and Churchill Downs with career earnings exceeding $57 million. Shipping from Kentucky to Mahoning Valley for a maiden race suggests Kenneally sees this as a winning opportunity. Jose Bracho rides from the ideal rail post. This three-year-old filly is the main danger to the favorite. Handicappers identified Allatou as a top selection for this race.
Secondary Choices
Academic Freedom (PP7) at 7/2, if she starts, is trained by Andrew McKeever with Luis Raul Rivera aboard. She carries strong odds despite the scratch-watch flag. If she does run, her 7/2 price offers value, but the veterinarian concern is worrisome.
Lady Midshipman (PP5) at 6/1 is trained by Jason DaCosta, the four-time Jamaican champion trainer, with Luis Alberto Batista in the irons. DaCosta has been active and successful at Mahoning Valley this winter, and Batista is a proven winner at the track.
Longshots
Run On Candy (PP3) at 8/1 is trained by Eric Reed, adding yet another top-tier shipper to this race. Charle Oliveros rides, and the three-post is a good draw. Scary Jerry (PP6) at 15/1 is also a Reed trainee with Bailey Weatherly up, giving Reed a two-pronged attack. Olive On Top (PP4) at 20/1 carries the equipment change notation (blinkers on) for trainer Justin Radosevich with David Haldar aboard.
Selections
Win: Making Daisys (PP2)
Place: Allatou (PP1)
Show: Lady Midshipman (PP5)
Wagering angle: This race features elite shipping trainers — Ward, Kenneally, DaCosta, and Reed all have runners, which is unusual for a Mahoning Valley maiden race. Making Daisys’ improving form and Ward’s decision to ship here is a powerful angle. However, Allatou at 5/2 from the rail for a trainer of Kenneally’s caliber is the value play. An exacta box of PP1 and PP2 is the primary wager, with trifecta consideration adding PP5 and PP3 underneath.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Luis Raul Rivera is the most prominent rider on the card with five mounts including The Shoe Lady (R1), Danzing Chick (R3), Miss Fussy Pants (R4), Tetched (R5), and Academic Freedom (R8). Rivera is a former meet-leading rider at Mahoning Valley by earnings and knows the track intimately. His best mounts today are The Shoe Lady and Tetched, both morning-line favorites or co-favorites in their respective races. His mounts throughout the card consistently draw competitive assignments.
Rocco Bowen has five mounts spanning all class levels: Unchained Spirit (R2), Opulent Ways (R3), Cool Couple (R6), Small Town Heroine (R7), and the marquee assignment on Making Daisys (R8) for Wesley Ward. Bowen getting the call from Ward signals confidence in his ability to deliver instructions on a high-profile runner. His making-of-the-card mount is clearly Making Daisys in the finale.
Luis Alberto Batista, the 2023 meet-leading rider at Mahoning Valley, has three mounts: Nixon’s Time (R2), Stomping Moon (R6), and Lady Midshipman (R8). His best chance to win comes aboard Stomping Moon in Race 6, where the Bernardini-Batista combination has proven successful at this meet.
Jose A. Bracho draws four mounts including Total Luna Eclipse (R2), Succession Gold (R5), Ramsey (R6), and the key assignment on Allatou (R8) for Eddie Kenneally. Bracho getting the Kenneally call is significant. His live mounts are Ramsey in Race 6 and Allatou in Race 8.
Victor Fernandez rides five times, with his key mounts being Divine Fashion (R1), Pittsburgh (R5), Supersonic Agenda (R2), and More Love (R6). Pittsburgh in Race 5 may be his best winning opportunity of the day.
Angel I. Diaz has four assignments: Tiz Mia (R2), All My Life (R5), Morethanreadyeddie (R6), and Fromthewonderland (R7). None are morning-line favorites, but Morethanreadyeddie in Race 6 at 6/1 from an inside post could offer value.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Jay Bernardini is the dominant local conditioner on this card with four runners across three races: Ashlee’s Ring (PP1, R4) and Honey Bella (PP2, R4) paired as stablemates, Doctor Wu (PP5, R6), and Stomping Moon (PP9, R6). Bernardini has won seven career training titles including multiple Mahoning Valley titles and is the standard by which Ohio-circuit trainers are measured. His strongest play today appears to be Honey Bella in Race 4, who is the morning-line favorite. The dual entry in Race 4 suggests at least one runner is live, and with Brandon Tapara on Honey Bella and Luis Tapara on Ashlee’s Ring, the stable has its bases covered.
Ricardo Bailey saddles four runners: Divine Fashion (R1), Unchained Spirit (R2), Supersonic Agenda (R2), and More Love (R6), plus Small Town Heroine (R7). Bailey runs two in Race 2, with Supersonic Agenda being the stronger play at 7/2 compared to Unchained Spirit at 10/1. Bettors should note when a trainer runs two in the same race — it often indicates which horse the barn expects to fire based on rider assignments.
Eric Reed, the 2022 Kentucky Derby-winning trainer, has four runners across two races: Grand Golden Road (R7), Dream Life (R7), Run On Candy (R8), and Scary Jerry (R8). Reed running two in each of Races 7 and 8 is notable. In Race 7, Grand Golden Road is the morning-line favorite, suggesting the barn leans that direction. In Race 8, Run On Candy at 8/1 draws better than Scary Jerry at 15/1.
Wesley Ward ships Making Daisys (R8) from his Keeneland base for this maiden special weight — a Gun Runner filly who cost $200,000 as a weanling. Ward’s decision to ship to Mahoning Valley rather than run at a higher-profile venue suggests he wants a softer spot to break her maiden. This is a significant confidence indicator.
Eddie Kenneally sends Allatou (R8) from his Kentucky base, marking another high-profile shipper in the finale. Kenneally’s career earnings exceed $57 million with over 1,182 wins, and he rarely ships horses without genuine expectations of winning.
Jason DaCosta, the four-time Jamaican champion trainer, runs Cool Couple (R6) and Lady Midshipman (R8). DaCosta has been building his American operation at Mahoning Valley this winter, highlighted by a one-two finish on January 2.
Nestor Rivera runs Goshen (R1), Tiz Mia (R2), and Miss Fussy Pants (R4). Miss Fussy Pants appears to be his best chance on the card, coming off an allowance-level effort just yesterday.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The card features several prohibitive favorites (Krissys Star at 1/1 in Race 2, A Kiss for Khozan at 1/1 in Race 3) that depress win-bet value. The optimal approach is to identify spots where the morning line offers value against the chalk and to attack exotic wagering in full fields.
Race 5 is the best betting race on the card. The large field at one mile creates substantial exacta and trifecta pools. Pittsburgh (PP1) at 7/2 from the rail offers genuine value against the wide-drawn favorite Tetched (PP9) at 5/2. Post position matters enormously at one mile at Mahoning Valley, and the morning line does not fully account for the rail advantage. A win bet on Pittsburgh is the card’s best value play. The trifecta should use PP1 and PP9 in the top two spots, with PP4 (Valid Connection), PP6 (Z Boss), and PP10 (Citizen) filling the third position.
Race 6 offers similar value with the 3/1 morning-line favorite Stomping Moon drawing the outside post 9 in a nine-horse sprint. Ramsey (PP3) at 7/2 and Unpredictable Bay (PP4) at 4/1 from inside posts are arguably better bets than the chalk, given how much post position matters in Mahoning Valley sprints.
Race 8 is the card’s feature event for sheer talent and shipping connections. Making Daisys at 8/5 is fair odds for a Wesley Ward-trained Gun Runner filly showing improvement, but Allatou at 5/2 from the rail for Eddie Kenneally represents the more attractive wagering angle, especially if the rail is playing kindly. An exacta box of these two is almost mandatory.
For multi-race wagers, a Pick 4 covering Races 5 through 8 would be structured as follows: Race 5, use PP1 (Pittsburgh), PP4 (Valid Connection), and PP9 (Tetched); Race 6, use PP3 (Ramsey), PP4 (Unpredictable Bay), and PP9 (Stomping Moon); Race 7, use PP4 (Grand Golden Road), PP5 (Stella E Veloce), and PP6 (Nun Gimel Hay Po); Race 8, use PP1 (Allatou) and PP2 (Making Daisys). This gives a 3x3x3x2 = 54-combination ticket that covers the key contenders while maintaining a reasonable investment.
The early daily double (Races 1-2) is a pass if Krissys Star runs at even money. The best exotic value on the card concentrates in the second half, where larger fields and post-position dynamics create pricing inefficiencies that sharper bettors can exploit.
