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Hollywood Gaming at Mahoning Valley Race Course in Youngstown, Ohio, presents an eight-race card today with a first post time of 12:15 PM EST. The card features a balanced mix of conditions ranging from bottom-level $5,000 claiming races to a $31,800 maiden special weight for Ohio-bred three-year-old fillies. Four of the eight races are restricted to Ohio-registered foals, which is standard for this meet and reflects the heavy reliance on state-bred incentive programs at Mahoning Valley during the winter meet.
The card includes two one-mile route races (Races 4 and 7), one 5.5-furlong sprint (Race 1), and five six-furlong sprints (Races 2, 3, 5, 6, and 8). Field sizes range from seven to ten runners, providing decent wagering pools for an Ohio winter card. The feature race is the eighth, a maiden special weight for Ohio-bred three-year-old fillies at six furlongs with a $31,800 purse.
Several scratches have been flagged on today’s scratch watch that affect multiple races. Whiskey Diamond (PP6) in Race 2 is listed as a trainer scratch. Mr Loooch (PP4) in Race 3 is a stewards scratch. In Race 4, Interval (PP1) is a stewards scratch from a cancelled race condition, and Mondrich (PP8) is scratched by the private veterinarian due to illness. Pretty Prizes (PP5) in Race 8 was scratched by the veterinarian. Players should confirm final fields before wagering.
Weather and Track Conditions
The Youngstown, Ohio, area is experiencing unseasonably warm temperatures for February 20, with a forecast high near 57 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of approximately 35 degrees. This is well above the average February high of 41 degrees for the region. Winds are expected to be strong from the southwest at 19-23 mph with gusts possible, making this a breezy day at the track.
Rain is in the forecast with a 90% probability of precipitation and approximately 0.40 inches of rainfall expected through the afternoon. The morning period calls for overcast skies transitioning to rain, which means the racing surface is likely to be wet by the time the middle races are run. Yesterday’s conditions were overcast with a high of 62 degrees and a low of 46 degrees, so the ground was already soft heading into today.
Given the expected rainfall and the warm temperatures, the track surface is likely to be labeled sloppy or muddy by mid-card. The warm temperatures will prevent any freezing, but the accumulated moisture should soften the racing strip considerably. Horseplayers should monitor the track condition designation closely, as surface-preferencing horses that have demonstrated an ability to handle an off track will gain an edge today. Recent racing at Mahoning Valley has frequently been conducted over sloppy surfaces during this meet, so most horses in these fields have some wet-track experience in their form.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Mahoning Valley typically features a speed-favoring profile, especially in six-furlong sprints where horses that secure the front or sit close to it often hold a tactical edge. Inside to middle post positions tend to be mildly advantageous in these sprints because they allow runners to save ground into the single turn while maintaining options to establish early position.
Seasonal factors can occasionally produce a dead rail during the heart of winter, creating what horseplayers describe as an outside-flow bias where paths two to four off the fence become the preferred lanes. With today’s above-normal temperatures, this extreme winter rail penalty is less likely to be a dominant factor, but the rain could create a different dynamic. Heavy moisture can sometimes make the inside path deeper, especially in the stretch.
For the one-mile races on this card (Races 4 and 7), the short run to the first turn places a premium on inside post positions and tactical speed. Horses drawn wide in one-mile events at Mahoning Valley often use extra energy to secure position, which can compromise their late-race efforts. Early-race observation remains important today. If rail-drawn horses underperform with clean trips in Races 1 and 2, a move toward outside lanes may be developing.
Race 1 — Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $13,000
Post Time: 12:15 PM EST
This is a $5,000 claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward which have not won two races since August 20. The short 5.5-furlong distance with a seven-horse field opens the card.
Pace Analysis
This race shapes up with moderate early speed. Thirsty Accountant (PP5) is the clear pace presence in the field, having led or pressed in the vast majority of her starts. Quick Recovery (PP1) also shows some tactical speed from the rail. Scoot Along (PP3) and Princessofthenorth (PP6) have shown mid-pack running styles. The pace should be honest but not suicidal, which generally favors the horse setting it at this short distance on a speed-favoring surface.
Key Contenders
Thirsty Accountant (PP5) is the 5/2 morning line favorite and the only horse in the field carrying 126 pounds, indicating she has won within the required conditions. She won her most recent start at Mahoning Valley on February 9 over six furlongs on a sloppy track, demonstrating both current form and an ability to handle wet conditions. Trainer Larry Smith has campaigned her effectively at this level, and jockey Angel Diaz, one of the more accomplished riders on the grounds, takes the mount. The 5.5-furlong distance is a touch short for her typical six-furlong races, but her speed should allow her to control the tempo from the outset.
Scoot Along (PP3) is listed at 3/1 and represents trainer Jami Poole with jockey Luis Alberto Batista aboard. Batista is a historically productive rider at this meet. Scoot Along has been competitive at this level, and the inside-to-middle post draw is favorable for the sprint distance. She profiles as a stalker who could be positioned just off the pace.
Quick Recovery (PP1) at 7/2 draws the rail, which is an advantage in a short sprint. She won at Mahoning Valley on February 4 at this same $5,000 claiming level. The concern is that her recent form suggests she may need six furlongs to be at her best, but the rail draw should save ground and keep her in contention. Jockey Jose Bracho takes the mount.
Secondary Choices
Princessofthenorth (PP6) at 4/1 is trained by Johanna Urieta, who is in form during the current meet. This seven-year-old mare won at this track in December of 2024 and has been competitive at this level. She profiles as a mid-pack runner who can make a late bid if the pace collapses.
Datttsafancyfox (PP2) at 8/1 and Remember Me (PP4) at 8/1 are secondary options. Datttsafancyfox is also trained by Urieta and showed ability earlier in the meet but has been inconsistent.
Longshots
Grace and Glory (PP7) at 12/1 is the outsider in this field. Recent form suggests she is overmatched against the top contenders, but at double-digit odds in a short sprint, she cannot be completely dismissed if the track develops an outside-lane preference.
Betting Strategy
Thirsty Accountant should be used as a single in horizontal exotics. In the exacta, keying her on top over Quick Recovery and Scoot Along offers a solid structure. The trifecta can be expanded to include Princessofthenorth in the third slot.
Selections
Win: Thirsty Accountant (PP5)
Place: Quick Recovery (PP1)
Show: Scoot Along (PP3)
Race 2 — Starter Allowance, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $25,900
Post Time: 12:43 PM EST
This is a starter allowance for Ohio-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward which have started for a claiming price of $10,000 or less in 2025-2026. With the likely scratch of Whiskey Diamond (PP6), the field reduces to six runners.
Pace Analysis
The pace setup here is contested. Reasons We Drink (PP2) and Shanghai Delight (PP1) both show early speed, while Instigation (PP3) can be positioned near the front. With multiple pace players, the early fractions could be relatively quick, which might set up for a horse with more of a stalking style like Miesha (PP5) or Mizzen the Point (PP7) to rally late.
Key Contenders
Instigation (PP3) is the 3/1 morning line favorite with jockey Rocco Bowen aboard for trainer Julie Pappada. Pappada has shown a solid win rate during this meet, and Bowen is a reliable rider who has historically been among the leading jockeys at Mahoning Valley. Instigation has shown good form in recent starts and the mid-post draw should allow tactical options.
Miesha (PP5) at 7/2 is trained by Penny Rone and ridden by Luis Raul Rivera. This five-year-old mare has shown consistency at this level and the stalking running style could be ideally suited if the pace is contested up front. Rone is a capable trainer who does well with Ohio-breds.
Secondary Choices
Whiskey Diamond (PP6) is listed as a scratch watch candidate (trainer scratch), so players should confirm. If she runs, the 4/1 odds offer some interest given trainer Jay Bernardini’s strong history at this meet, including a past leading trainer title. However, the scratch appears likely.
Mizzen the Point (PP7) at 9/2 has veteran jockey David Haldar aboard and represents trainer Paul Overholt. This seven-year-old mare has experience over the track and the distance, and could benefit from a pace meltdown scenario.
Reasons We Drink (PP2) at 5/1 brings early speed from the number two post for trainer Justin Radosevich. Jose Bracho rides. The Radosevich barn has been active and competitive at this meet.
Longshots
National Diamond (PP4) at 6/1 and Shanghai Delight (PP1) at 10/1 are the longer-priced options. Shanghai Delight draws the rail, which is helpful in a six-furlong race, but 10/1 suggests she may be a notch below.
Betting Strategy
This is a competitive race without a clear standout. A multi-horse exacta box using Instigation, Miesha, and Mizzen the Point offers coverage. In the trifecta, expanding to include Reasons We Drink provides additional protection at a modest cost.
Selections
Win: Instigation (PP3)
Place: Miesha (PP5)
Show: Mizzen the Point (PP7)
Race 3 — Starter Allowance, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $25,900
Post Time: 1:11 PM EST
This starter allowance is open to Ohio-bred runners three years old and upward that have started for a claiming price of $10,000 or less. With Mr Loooch (PP4) likely scratched by the stewards, the field drops to six.
Pace Analysis
Coastland (PP7) has demonstrated early speed in recent starts and is likely to be forwardly placed from the outside draw. Thedayofthegrey (PP6) won on February 5 when setting the pace over five furlongs on a sloppy track, suggesting he has some tactical speed. Roll On Big O (PP3) won last time and can stalk. The pace should be moderate, favoring the frontrunner.
Key Contenders
Coastland (PP7) is the 8/5 morning line favorite and has reportedly won his last three races, including two at this course and distance. Trainer Marco Ibarra also has Roll On Big O in this race, giving the barn a strong two-pronged attack. Jockey Luis Antonio Gonzalez has the mount. The only concern is the outside post position in a six-furlong race, which forces a wide trip into the turn. However, Coastland’s current form is the best in the field by a clear margin.
Roll On Big O (PP3) at 3/1 is the stablemate, also trained by Ibarra, with Luis Alberto Batista in the irons. He won last time out and draws a favorable middle post. If the barn opts to use this horse as the speed setup for Coastland, his chances as a standalone win bet diminish, but his own form warrants respect.
Secondary Choices
Red Head Kid (PP5) at 6/1 is trained by Jeffrey Radosevich and ridden by Erik Barbaran. This seven-year-old gelding won at Mahoning Valley in February 2025 and has shown competence at this level, though his recent form is a step below Coastland.
Thedayofthegrey (PP6) at 8/1 won on February 5 over five furlongs on a sloppy track and is the only horse in the field carrying 126 pounds, which indicates recent success. The cutback from five to six furlongs should not be an issue, and if the track is indeed sloppy today, his wet-track form could prove valuable. Jockey Victor Fernandez takes the mount for trainer Robert Cline.
Longshots
Lust for Life (PP2) at 10/1 and Paint the Town (PP1) at 12/1 are longshots. Paint the Town has some back form at this level but has struggled recently.
Betting Strategy
Coastland is a strong single in this race. In the exacta, keying Coastland on top over Roll On Big O and Red Head Kid makes sense. The trifecta can include Thedayofthegrey in the lower slots for some value. This race is also a good spot for an all-button wager with Coastland in the win position.
Selections
Win: Coastland (PP7)
Place: Roll On Big O (PP3)
Show: Thedayofthegrey (PP6)
Race 4 — Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $12,100
Post Time: 1:39 PM EST
A $5,000 claiming event for three-year-olds and upward that have never won two races. With the likely scratches of Interval (PP1) and Mondrich (PP8), the field could drop to as few as six runners. The one-mile distance on a wet surface will test stamina.
Pace Analysis
This race lacks a clear speed horse, which could result in slow early fractions. Frame Up (PP2) has shown tactical speed in his recent route races and is likely to be near the front from the two-post. Shukran (PP3) is a three-year-old with limited experience, and his running style is not fully established. The lack of confirmed speed suggests the race will be won by whoever can sit just off a slow pace and kick in the stretch.
Key Contenders
Frame Up (PP2) is the overwhelming 1/1 morning line favorite, and with good reason. He has finished second in three consecutive starts at Mahoning Valley, beaten narrowly each time. Jockey Angel Diaz has the mount for trainer Justine Eder. The consistent runner-up form suggests he is the class of the field, and the inside post at one mile is a significant tactical advantage. The concern is whether he can finally convert near-misses into a win, but at this level and in a reduced field, he should have every chance.
Star Quality (PP7) at 4/1 represents trainer Mary Hurley with jockey David Haldar aboard. This gelding has shown some ability and offers the best alternative to the heavy favorite. The wider post is a slight negative at one mile, but if Frame Up has an off day, Star Quality could capitalize.
Secondary Choices
Klimtster (PP4) at 10/1 has been around the Mahoning Valley circuit for a while and has shown occasional flashes. Jockey Charle Oliveros takes the mount for trainer Robert Inman. He is best used in exotic wagers underneath the top two.
Starship d’Oro (PP6) at 10/1 is trained by Jami Poole with Luis Alberto Batista riding. The Poole-Batista combination is effective, and at 10/1 this runner offers some value in the trifecta and superfecta.
Longshots
Shukran (PP3) at 20/1 is a three-year-old colt carrying only 116 pounds, a significant weight advantage. However, his maiden victory came in modest company, and the step up to a mile against more experienced runners is a question mark. Apprentice jockey Bailey Weatherly takes the mount. If you believe in youth and a light weight, this is a live longshot, but the risk is significant.
Aves Makin’ Waves (PP5) at 20/1 has not shown the form to compete at this level.
Betting Strategy
Frame Up at even money is not a value play on the win end, but he can anchor exotic wagers. In the exacta, keying Frame Up on top over Star Quality and Klimtster provides structure. The trifecta can include Starship d’Oro and Shukran for some price expansion. This is not a race to chase large payoffs, but rather a race to use Frame Up as a bank in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: Frame Up (PP2)
Place: Star Quality (PP7)
Show: Klimtster (PP4)
Race 5 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $19,500
Post Time: 2:07 PM EST
Ohio-bred fillies and mares at the $10,000 claiming level that have never won three races. This is the largest field on the card with ten runners.
Pace Analysis
Lady Loves Money (PP4) and Rollin Freedom (PP5) both have shown some early speed. S’mor Crafty (PP1) draws the rail and could use that to establish a forward position. With a ten-horse field and multiple speed types, the early fractions could be quick, potentially setting up for a closer to rally. Complexity Girl (PP6) and Here Comes Dolly (PP9) are deeper closers who would benefit from a fast pace scenario.
Key Contenders
Lady Loves Money (PP4) is the 5/2 morning line favorite. Trainer Lorenzo Juarez has this filly in good form, and jockey Luis Raul Rivera has been riding well during the current meet. The four-post is a solid draw in a ten-horse sprint field, allowing tactical flexibility.
S’mor Crafty (PP1) at 7/2 draws the rail with apprentice jockey Chelsey Keiser aboard for trainer Robert Guciardo. She finished second on February 5 and has shown steady improvement. The rail draw can be an advantage if she breaks sharply and establishes position early.
Siofra (PP10) at 4/1 is trained by David Wolochuk, who has been in form with a 2-for-10 record over the last 21 days. Jockey Mauro Cedillo rides. The outside post in a ten-horse field is a clear negative, but if she has enough talent to overcome the trip, the form figures support her.
Secondary Choices
Rollin Freedom (PP5) at 5/1 has trainer Saul Morales, who leads the trainers in form with a 4-for-20 record in the last 21 days. Luis Alberto Batista rides. This five-year-old mare has shown competence at the level and the mid-field draw is acceptable.
I Belong First (PP7) at 8/1 is trained by Megan Fadlovich with Rocco Bowen aboard. Bowen is a skilled rider, and at 8/1 this filly offers some value if the pace collapses.
Longshots
Complexity Girl (PP6) at 10/1 is trained by Johanna Urieta, who has been moderately productive during the meet. She finished third on February 5, and if the pace is contested, she could improve into the picture.
Count On Me (PP3) at 15/1 and Here Comes Dolly (PP9) at 15/1 are deep closers who need everything to go right. Most Adorable (PP2) at 20/1 and Wild Mariah (PP8) at 20/1 appear overmatched.
Betting Strategy
A large field with competitive odds makes this race ideal for trifecta and superfecta wagering. Lady Loves Money is the top choice but not a confident single. Using Lady Loves Money, S’mor Crafty, and Siofra in the top two spots of the trifecta, then expanding to include Rollin Freedom and I Belong First in the lower positions, creates a playable ticket.
Selections
Win: Lady Loves Money (PP4)
Place: S’mor Crafty (PP1)
Show: Siofra (PP10)
Race 6 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $14,900
Post Time: 2:35 PM EST
Fillies and mares at the $7,500 claiming level that have never won four races, with an eight-horse field.
Pace Analysis
This race sets up well for Pounds in Town (PP7), who showed clear front-running ability in her most recent victory. Miss Foxann (PP3) typically stalks and rallies, and Crackle (PP1) has shown some speed. With the pace likely controlled by Pounds in Town, the question is whether she can sustain it for six furlongs or if a stalker can reel her in.
Key Contenders
Pounds in Town (PP7) is the 5/2 morning line favorite and won impressively in her last start. She is trained by Rey Juarez-Mendoza with jockey Victor Fernandez in the irons. This four-year-old filly appears to be in strong current form, and the form analysis indicates she looks well-placed to follow up her recent win. The only concern is the outside post in an eight-horse field, but her tactical speed should help her establish position early.
Miss Foxann (PP3) at 3/1 finished second on February 9, behind Thirsty Accountant in a race that produced the top choice in Race 1 today. She has been consistent in this class throughout the meet. Trainer Julie Pappada has been effective with her runners, and apprentice Chelsey Keiser takes the mount. A mid-post draw helps.
Crackle (PP1) at 7/2 draws the rail for trainer Khadeem Galloway with Angel Diaz riding. This filly won at this level in November 2025 but has been inconsistent since, finishing sixth in her last start. The rail draw is favorable, and Diaz is one of the top riders on the grounds. A bounce-back is possible.
Secondary Choices
Sicilian Style Two (PP8) at 9/2 is trained by Johanna Urieta and ridden by Alexander Crispin. This seven-year-old mare has the back class to compete in this spot, having won at this level in December 2025. The outside post is a concern, but at nearly 5/1, she offers value.
Here Kitty Kitty (PP4) at 6/1 finished second in a similar field on January 15 and has been placing consistently. David Haldar rides for trainer Nestor Rivera.
Longshots
Geegee’s Story (PP6) at 12/1 has not shown the recent form to suggest a win is likely, but in a competitive field, she could sneak into the trifecta. My Fine Aquiline (PP5) at 15/1 and Grey Market (PP2) at 20/1 are true longshots.
Betting Strategy
Pounds in Town and Miss Foxann are the two most likely winners. An exacta box of those two with Crackle as a saver is the core play. In the trifecta, using Pounds in Town and Miss Foxann in the top two slots, with Sicilian Style Two and Here Kitty Kitty filling the third position, offers a reasonable ticket.
Selections
Win: Pounds in Town (PP7)
Place: Miss Foxann (PP3)
Show: Crackle (PP1)
Race 7 — Allowance, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $25,900
Post Time: 3:03 PM EST
This is the co-feature event, an allowance race at one mile for three-year-olds and upward. The field of seven (with the Also Eligible Panthera’s Fate listed as PP99) includes a fascinating class dropper from a major national barn.
Pace Analysis
At one mile, early positioning is critical. The Chalk (PP3) has shown tactical speed and can press or set the pace. Dr Ruben M (PP6) has the versatility to sit off the pace or press, depending on the jockey’s instructions. Oklahoma Joe (PP4) has shown some speed in his recent starts. The pace should be moderate, which generally favors horses with the ability to sit second or third and kick past tiring speed in the stretch.
Key Contenders
Dr Ruben M (PP6) is the 8/5 morning line favorite and the most intriguing runner on the entire card. He is trained by Doug O’Neill, a two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer based in Southern California. The fact that O’Neill has shipped a horse to Mahoning Valley in February suggests strong confidence. The form analysis explicitly notes that he “steps down in class and could prove too good.” Jose Bracho has the mount. Dr Ruben M carries a rating of 88, the highest in the field, and the class drop makes him a formidable presence.
The Chalk (PP3) at 5/2 is trained by Jeffrey Radosevich with Luis Raul Rivera riding. This four-year-old gelding has placed in tougher company recently and draws a favorable inside post for the mile distance. He finished third on February 5 behind Handsome Pants and Hurricanes Ablowin in an allowance race, and followed that with a win on February 12. The consistent form and the inside draw make him a clear threat to the favorite.
Dream Knight (PP2) at 7/2 won last time out on February 3, defeating Magical Monarch and Sailor’s Chance. Trainer Caryn Vecchio has this six-year-old gelding in good form, and jockey Alexander Crispin rides. His rating of 83 matches several others in the field, and the inside post is advantageous at one mile.
Secondary Choices
The Doorman (PP1) at 5/1 draws the rail, which is a prime position at one mile. He is trained by Jami Poole and ridden by Kevin Gonzalez. His form line includes a second to Deadpan on February 4, when he rallied from off the pace to be beaten only modestly. At 5/1, he offers value in a race where the favorite may be overbet.
Oklahoma Joe (PP4) at 8/1 is trained by Nestor Rivera with Angel Diaz aboard. He has course and distance experience but has been inconsistent, and his wide post is a slight negative at the mile distance.
Longshots
Sight Unseen (PP5) at 20/1 and C V Dynamic (PP7) at 20/1 are the outsiders. Sight Unseen has some back form at this track but has not won in a long time. C V Dynamic has the lowest rating in the field at 72 and would need a significant improvement to compete.
Betting Strategy
Dr Ruben M is the clear top pick, but at 8/5, the value is moderate. The vertical exotic play is to key Dr Ruben M on top of The Chalk and Dream Knight in the exacta, then expand the trifecta to include The Doorman. For those who want to go against the chalk, The Chalk at 5/2 represents the best alternative. This race is an excellent anchor for the late Pick 4 or any horizontal sequences.
Selections
Win: Dr Ruben M (PP6)
Place: The Chalk (PP3)
Show: Dream Knight (PP2)
Race 8 — Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $31,800
Post Time: 3:31 PM EST
The finale is a maiden special weight for Ohio-bred three-year-old fillies at six furlongs. With Pretty Prizes (PP5) scratched by the veterinarian, the field drops to eight. This is a wide-open affair with first-time starters and limited-form runners making it the most unpredictable race on the card.
Pace Analysis
In maiden races, established pace dynamics are difficult to predict. Orsa Bella (PP1) draws the rail and may show early speed. Franchetti (PP4) has shown some pace in morning workouts. The overall pace is likely to be moderate to slow, as many of these fillies are still learning. Horses with professional early speed and the ability to relax should have an advantage.
Key Contenders
Mshawish’girl (PP8) is the 3/1 morning line favorite for trainer Robert Cline with jockey Victor Fernandez aboard. Cline has had success at Mahoning Valley over the years, and the sire Mshawish has produced runners who can handle various surfaces. The outside post is a concern in a maiden race where inexperience can lead to erratic early moves, but if she has the talent her odds suggest, the draw should not be insurmountable.
Beachglass (PP3) at 7/2 is trained by Timothy Hamm with Rocco Bowen riding. Bowen is one of the strongest riders at the meet, and his presence aboard a second-choice in a maiden race is a positive signal. The three-post draw is ideal for a six-furlong sprint.
Weelassie (PP9) at 4/1 is trained by Christopher Davis with Erik Barbaran in the irons. At 4/1 she represents solid value if she has ability, and the connections would not enter at this level without some expectation of competitiveness.
Secondary Choices
Orsa Bella (PP1) at 9/2 draws the rail and is trained by Richard Estvanko. She does not carry the “L” (Lasix) designation, which is notable. The rail is advantageous for a six-furlong sprint, and if she breaks well, she could control the pace throughout.
Franchetti (PP4) at 5/1 is trained by Justin Radosevich with Jose Bracho riding. The Radosevich-Bracho combination has been productive during this meet, and the mid-post draw is favorable. She represents a barn that does well with first-time starters.
Longshots
Ravishing Ruby (PP6) at 20/1 is trained by Lorenzo Juarez with Mauro Cedillo riding. She carries blinkers, which can be a positive for a maiden. Sheza Candy Crush (PP2) at 20/1 and Instant Winner (PP7) at 20/1 round out the field but face long odds for a reason.
Betting Strategy
Maiden special weights with limited form are inherently unpredictable. The best approach is to spread in the exotics. A trifecta using Mshawish’girl, Beachglass, and Weelassie in the top three positions with Franchetti and Orsa Bella underneath provides reasonable coverage. This is not a race to place heavy win bets. Small trifecta and superfecta wagers with wider coverage are more appropriate.
Selections
Win: Beachglass (PP3)
Place: Mshawish’girl (PP8)
Show: Franchetti (PP4)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Angel I. Diaz has three mounts on today’s card (Races 1, 4, and 5) and is among the leading riders at the current Mahoning Valley meet. He won aboard Thirsty Accountant on February 9 and has a strong win percentage when riding for trainer Larry Smith. His mount on Frame Up (Race 4) is the heavy favorite, and he is a rider who manages pace effectively in route races.
Jose A. Bracho rides in Races 1, 6, 7, and 8 and is a versatile jockey who has been active throughout the meet. His most notable mount today is Dr Ruben M in Race 7 for Doug O’Neill. Bracho also rides Franchetti in the finale.
Rocco Bowen has two key mounts in Race 2 (Instigation) and Race 8 (Beachglass). Bowen was the leading jockey at a previous Mahoning Valley meet and is a reliable presence aboard live horses. His mount on Beachglass in the finale is particularly noteworthy as a signal of confidence from the connections.
Luis Alberto Batista rides in Races 1, 3, 4, and 5 and was the leading jockey at a previous Mahoning Valley meet. His two mounts for trainer Marco Ibarra in Race 3 (Roll On Big O) and the separate entry make the Ibarra-Batista combination one to watch.
Luis Raul Rivera has mounts in Races 2, 5, 7, and 8. His presence aboard Miesha in Race 2 and The Chalk in Race 7 gives him a solid book of business today. Rivera has consistently been among the top riders at this meet.
Victor R. Fernandez rides Thedayofthegrey (Race 3), Pounds in Town (Race 6), and Mshawish’girl (Race 8). His mount on Pounds in Town is the favorite, and the morning line choices suggest his barn connections have confidence in his abilities.
Chelsey Keiser is an apprentice jockey with mounts in Races 5 and 6. Her bug weight allowance (if applicable) could be a factor, particularly aboard S’mor Crafty in Race 5 and Miss Foxann in Race 6.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Johanna Urieta has four horses entered across the card: Datttsafancyfox and Princessofthenorth in Race 1, Complexity Girl in Race 5, and Grey Market and Sicilian Style Two in Race 6. Over the last 21 days, Urieta’s barn has posted a 2-for-16 record. She is most competitive in the lower claiming ranks and her numbers suggest she is a volume operation. Princessofthenorth in Race 1 and Sicilian Style Two in Race 6 may be her best chances today.
Marco Ibarra trains Coastland and Roll On Big O in Race 3, giving the barn a powerful dual entry. Coastland has won three straight, including two at this course and distance, and is the most impressive horse on the card from a recent-form standpoint.
Jeffrey A. Radosevich trains Quick Recovery in Race 1, and also has connections through the Radosevich family with Reasons We Drink (Race 2, trained by Justin Radosevich) and Franchetti (Race 8, also trained by Justin). The Radosevich operation has been a consistent force at Mahoning Valley during this meet and previous meets.
Doug O’Neill trains Dr Ruben M in Race 7 and is the most accomplished trainer on the grounds today by national standards. O’Neill is a two-time Kentucky Derby winner whose primary base is Southern California. Shipping a horse to Mahoning Valley in February for an allowance race is unusual for a barn of this caliber, suggesting a high level of confidence in the horse’s ability. This is a serious angle for handicappers.
Saul M. Morales has two runners in Race 5 (Count On Me and Rollin Freedom) and leads the trainers in form with a 4-for-20 record over the last 21 days. Rollin Freedom at 5/1 is the barn’s better chance in that race.
Jami C. Poole trains Scoot Along (Race 1), Starship d’Oro (Race 4), and The Doorman (Race 7). Poole has been a consistent mid-tier operation at this meet. The Doorman at 5/1 in Race 7 may represent her best chance of hitting the board.
Jay P. Bernardini trains Whiskey Diamond in Race 2 (likely scratched). Bernardini is a former leading trainer at Mahoning Valley and historically one of the strongest barns at this circuit.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The card offers several angles for profitable wagering. The key is identifying races where the favorites are beatable and where overlays are likely in the exotic pools.
The two strongest individual plays on the card are Coastland (PP7) in Race 3 at 8/5 and Dr Ruben M (PP6) in Race 7 at 8/5. Both are deserving favorites with strong recent form and class advantages. Coastland has won three straight, and Dr Ruben M drops in class from a Doug O’Neill barn. These two horses should be used as singles or A-horses in horizontal exotic wagers.
Frame Up (PP2) in Race 4 at even money is not a value play on the win end, but his consistency as a runner-up makes him ideal for underneath positions in exactas. Bettors who key other horses on top of Frame Up in the exacta may find better prices than straight win or show wagering.
Race 5 offers the best exotics opportunity due to its large field of ten and competitive morning line. A trifecta with Lady Loves Money and S’mor Crafty in the top spots, spreading to Siofra, Rollin Freedom, and I Belong First in the third position, could produce a solid payout.
Race 8, the maiden special weight, is inherently unpredictable and presents the best opportunity for a big-ticket exotic payout. Small superfecta wagers spreading across six or seven runners can produce substantial returns in maiden races.
For multi-race wagering, a Pick 4 covering Races 5-8 is the primary target. The suggested structure is: Race 5 (Lady Loves Money, S’mor Crafty, Siofra), Race 6 (Pounds in Town, Miss Foxann), Race 7 (Dr Ruben M), Race 8 (Beachglass, Mshawish’girl, Franchetti, Weelassie). This creates a ticket with reasonable coverage (3 x 2 x 1 x 4 = 24 combinations at $1 per combination = $24 total), and using Dr Ruben M as a single in Race 7 keeps the cost manageable.
For daily double purposes, the Races 1-2 double using Thirsty Accountant with Instigation and Miesha offers a solid opening play. The Races 7-8 closing double with Dr Ruben M over four or five runners in Race 8 is another strong option.
Track condition monitoring is critical today given the expected rain. If the rail appears dead in Races 1 and 2, adjustments should be made for outside posts in subsequent races. Horses with proven sloppy-track form should be given extra credit as the card progresses and moisture accumulates on the racing surface.
