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Mahoning Valley Race Course in Youngstown, Ohio, presents a nine-race card on Monday, February 23, 2026, with a first post time of 12:15 PM ET. The card features a well-balanced mix of class levels, including two maiden claiming races (Races 1 and 4), three claiming events (Races 2, 5, and 6), one allowance optional claiming (Race 3), one open claiming race (Race 7), and two allowance races (Races 8 and 9). Purses range from $10,500 in the opener to $27,500 in Race 3, reflecting the mid-winter Ohio circuit.
Several notable scratches could reshape key races on the card. In Race 2, Run Pancita (PP1) is on the scratch watch due to a veterinarian issue. Race 3 could lose Eddie M (PP5), the 5/2 morning line favorite, to a veterinarian scratch. Race 4 has Classic Look (PP1) flagged by the stewards. In Race 5, both Watchoutforweaver (PP4) and Zakaria (PP6) face potential scratches. Race 7 may lose two runners in Atkins (PP5) and Time the Avenger (PP4) due to stewards’ actions. Race 9’s Fracture (PP7) is listed as also-eligible. All scratch decisions should be monitored before committing to wagers.
The card features a competitive jockey colony led by Jose A. Bracho, who has five mounts spread across Races 2, 3, 4, 8, and 9. Erik Barbaran has four rides, including mounts in Races 1, 2, 5, and 8. Brandon Tapara also has multiple engagements.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather forecast for Youngstown, Ohio, on February 23 calls for cloudy skies with a daytime high of approximately 33-37 degrees Fahrenheit and an overnight low near 17-21 degrees. Winds will be light at approximately 4 mph, with a 25% chance of precipitation. These temperatures are below normal for late February, which can contribute to a firmer-than-usual racing surface if the ground has frozen overnight and not fully thawed by first post.
Mahoning Valley’s dirt surface has been subject to significant freeze-thaw cycling throughout the winter meet. On January 7, 2026, racing was cancelled after the seventh race due to deteriorating track conditions caused by rapid temperature swings between freezing and above-freezing. Trainer Jay Bernardini, a member of the track’s safety committee, noted that the combination of warm daytime temperatures and freezing nights complicates efforts to maintain optimal conditions.
With today’s temperatures hovering in the low-to-mid 30s, the surface should be on the firmer side of its winter range by the time racing begins at 12:15 PM ET. However, the ground may have frozen overnight and could be softening as the card progresses into the afternoon hours. Expect the track to play somewhere between fast and good through the early races, with potential for slight loosening later in the day as temperatures approach the mid-30s.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Mahoning Valley typically features a speed-favoring profile, especially at the standard six-furlong sprint distance. Horses that secure the lead or race within a length or two of the front through the turn often hold a significant advantage on this surface.
In sprints, inside to middle post positions carry a mild advantage, allowing runners to save ground into the single turn while maintaining options to either press or sit off the pace. Wide-drawn speed can win, but it generally must work harder to clear, which can be costly when fractions are contested.
During the deeper winter months, the rail can become dead due to freeze-thaw cycling, creating an “outside flow” bias that forces horses to rally three to four paths off the fence. With today’s cold but dry conditions, this rail-deadening effect may be somewhat reduced, but monitoring the early races for inside-versus-outside tendencies is essential before committing to late-card wagers.
At the one-mile distance (Races 3 and 4 on today’s card), the short run to the first turn places a premium on inside post positions and tactical speed. Horses drawn wide in mile events at Mahoning Valley often use extra energy to secure position, which can compromise their late-race stamina.
Race 1 — Maiden Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $10,500
Post Time: 12:15 PM ET
Maiden claiming for fillies and mares aged three through six. Claiming price $5,000. Field of seven.
| PP | Horse | ML Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hero Panther | 20/1 | Paucar Edgar | Loudin-Smith Lori |
| 2 | Hero Queen | 8/1 | Skerrett Jefferson | Loudin-Smith Lori |
| 3 | Honor and Obay | 2/1 | Bermudez Samuel E. | West Aaron M. |
| 4 | Bizy Dreamin | 5/2 | Bracho Jose A. | Tomlinson Michael A. |
| 5 | Stoptalkingsarah | 15/1 | Crispin Alexander | Crumley Jevon D. |
| 6 | Justtakethecannoli | 3/1 | Barbaran Erik | Ccamaque Marco |
| 7 | Jaganna | 5/1 | Vanek Helen Marie | Mileni, Jr. Nick Guy |
Pace Analysis
At 5 1/2 furlongs, early positioning is critical. Honor and Obay (PP3) and Bizy Dreamin (PP4) both possess some tactical speed and should be close to the front early. Justtakethecannoli (PP6) draws slightly wide but should have enough speed to be forwardly placed. The pace figures to be moderate to honest with three potential pressers, which could slightly favor the closer or stalker types if the front end combusts.
Key Contenders
Honor and Obay (PP3) is installed as the 2/1 morning line favorite for trainer Aaron M. West with Samuel E. Bermudez aboard. This three-year-old filly gets the weight allowance at 118 pounds and draws a favorable middle post that allows a clean trip into the turn. The West barn has been active and competitive throughout the meet, and this filly figures to be forwardly placed from the gate.
Bizy Dreamin (PP4) at 5/2 is the co-second choice on the morning line and gets the call from one handicapping source as the top pick. Trained by Michael A. Tomlinson with leading jockey Jose A. Bracho up, this three-year-old also benefits from the 118-pound weight allowance. The Bracho factor alone makes this one dangerous, and the four-post is well-suited for saving ground into the turn.
Secondary Choices
Justtakethecannoli (PP6) at 3/1 earns the top selection from one handicapping outlet and is the consensus pick from multiple sources. Trained by Marco Ccamaque with Erik Barbaran riding, this four-year-old filly has the jockey advantage of one of the meet’s most productive riders. Drawing the six-post is the main concern at 5 1/2 furlongs, though Barbaran’s aggressive riding style should help her overcome any positional disadvantage.
Jaganna (PP7) at 5/1 is an interesting live longshot with Helen Marie Vanek aboard for trainer Nick Guy Mileni, Jr. The seven-post is the widest draw, but at this level, class differences matter less than pure ability and willingness.
Longshots
Hero Panther (PP1) and Hero Queen (PP2), both trained by Lori Loudin-Smith, are the longest prices on the board at 20/1 and 8/1 respectively. Hero Queen from the rail has a positional advantage that could keep her in the picture for exotics if she breaks alertly.
Selections
Win: 4 Bizy Dreamin
Place: 6 Justtakethecannoli
Show: 3 Honor and Obay
Betting Strategy: With three closely matched horses at the top, this race sets up well for exacta and trifecta play. Key Bizy Dreamin on top with Justtakethecannoli and Honor and Obay underneath. A trifecta key of 4 with 3,6 with 3,6,7 provides solid coverage. The Bracho-Barbaran daily double connection from Race 1 into Race 2 is worth exploring.
Race 2 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $19,500
Post Time: 12:43 PM ET
Ohio-bred claiming for three-year-olds and upward, non-winners of three races. Claiming price $10,000. Field of seven, though Run Pancita (PP1) is on the scratch watch due to veterinarian concerns.
| PP | Horse | ML Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Run Pancita | 8/1 | Tapara Brandon | Morales Saul M. |
| 2 | Dew It With Class | 12/1 | Parker Deshawn L. | Urieta Johanna |
| 3 | Magic Motown | 2/1 | Bracho Jose A. | Radosevich Justin |
| 4 | Leroyisalagniappe | 15/1 | Keiser Chelsey | Tumblin Kristina M. |
| 5 | Ol’ Nelson | 7/2 | Bowen Rocco | Huffman Candace M. |
| 6 | Couple Beers Deep | 5/2 | Salazar Becerra Fernando | Morales Saul M. |
| 7 | Willie T | 9/2 | Barbaran Erik | Gorham Robert M. |
Pace Analysis
At six furlongs, this race should produce an honest pace with Couple Beers Deep (PP6) and Magic Motown (PP3) both likely to show early speed. If Run Pancita scratches, the field thins to six runners, which could create a more controlled pace scenario. The inside-to-middle posts are slightly favored here, giving Magic Motown an edge in the run to the turn.
Key Contenders
Magic Motown (PP3) is the 2/1 morning line favorite and the consensus top pick from handicappers. Trained by Justin Radosevich with leading rider Jose A. Bracho in the irons, this is the strongest connection in the race. The Radosevich barn has been competitive throughout the meet, and Bracho’s presence elevates any horse he rides. Drawing the three-post is ideal for the six-furlong trip.
Couple Beers Deep (PP6) at 5/2 represents the main threat and is trained by Saul M. Morales with Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard. This four-year-old gelding has shown tactical speed and should be prominent early. The six-post draws slightly wide but should be manageable in a field of this size.
Secondary Choices
Ol’ Nelson (PP5) at 7/2 is trained by Candace M. Huffman with veteran rider Rocco Bowen up. Bowen is a reliable jockey who can find the right trip from midfield. This horse is a logical exotics player behind the top two.
Willie T (PP7) at 9/2 is the pick from one handicapping source and benefits from Erik Barbaran in the irons. Trained by Robert M. Gorham, this four-year-old gelding draws widest but has the jockey firepower to overcome the post.
Selections
Win: 3 Magic Motown
Place: 6 Couple Beers Deep
Show: 5 Ol’ Nelson
Betting Strategy: Magic Motown is the most logical win play on the card with the best rider-trainer connection. Consider singling Magic Motown in multi-race wagers such as the early Pick 3. In exactas, key 3 on top with 6 and 5. If looking for value, boxing 3,6,7 in the trifecta captures the most likely top-three finish.
Race 3 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $27,500
Post Time: 1:11 PM ET
The best race on the card from a class perspective, this allowance optional claiming event draws horses that have never won three races beyond maiden, claiming, starter, or Ohio-bred levels. Claiming price $25,000. Field of six, though Eddie M (PP5) is on the scratch watch with a veterinarian concern.
| PP | Horse | ML Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silence | 9/2 | Skerrett Jefferson | Skerrett Jeffrey |
| 2 | Sunset Town | 5/1 | Houghton T. D. | Bailey Ricardo |
| 3 | Hidden Access | 6/1 | Bowen Rocco | Hamm Timothy E. |
| 4 | Big Lucky | 3/1 | Chavez Alexander | Rivera Nestor R. |
| 5 | Eddie M | 5/2 | Diaz Angel I. | Rivera Nestor R. |
| 6 | Ekati’s Way | 7/2 | Bracho Jose A. | Cline Robert C. |
Pace Analysis
At one mile, the short run to the first turn places a significant premium on inside post positions. Big Lucky (PP4) and Silence (PP1) both have tactical speed and should be positioned near the front early. If Eddie M scratches, this becomes a five-horse field where pace pressure eases considerably. The moderate pace scenario favors the stalking types who can sit just off the leaders and pounce turning for home.
Key Contenders
Big Lucky (PP4) at 3/1 is the most appealing runner if Eddie M scratches, and even if the favorite runs, this four-year-old gelding has the goods to compete. Trained by Nestor R. Rivera with Alexander Chavez riding, Big Lucky won at this track on January 21 over a mile, defeating Silence in the process. The mid-draw is acceptable for the distance, and Chavez has been riding effectively throughout the meet.
Eddie M (PP5) at 5/2 is the morning line favorite and the consensus selection from one handicapping outlet, but the veterinarian scratch watch creates significant risk. If Eddie M runs, this six-year-old gelding won at this track on December 1 over a mile and has strong form at the class level. However, bettors should monitor the scratch board closely.
Ekati’s Way (PP6) at 7/2 is the pick from another handicapping source and has Bracho riding. This five-year-old gelding finished second at this track on October 28 over a mile and has been competitive at this level throughout the meet. The Bracho factor elevates Ekati’s Way to prime contender status.
Secondary Choices
Silence (PP1) at 9/2 draws the rail, which is advantageous at one mile. Trained by Jeffrey Skerrett with Jefferson Skerrett (a father-son combination) aboard, this seven-year-old gelding was beaten by Big Lucky on January 21 but draws a more favorable post today. The rail can save significant ground through the first turn.
Sunset Town (PP2) at 5/1 draws the two-post, which is another favorable inside draw at one mile. Trained by Ricardo Bailey, this horse won at this track on January 5 in an impressive performance. The question is whether that form translates to this class level.
Selections
Win: 4 Big Lucky
Place: 6 Ekati’s Way
Show: 1 Silence
Betting Strategy: If Eddie M scratches, this race becomes highly playable with Big Lucky as the top selection. Key Big Lucky in exactas with Ekati’s Way and Silence. The early Pick 3 sequence (Races 1-3) or Pick 4 (Races 1-4) should use Big Lucky and Ekati’s Way as a spread.
Race 4 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $12,200
Post Time: 1:39 PM ET
Maiden claiming for three through six-year-olds at a $7,500 claiming price. Field of seven, with Classic Look (PP1) on the scratch watch due to stewards.
| PP | Horse | ML Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Classic Look | 5/2 | Bracho Jose A. | West Aaron M. |
| 2 | Life’s One | 6/1 | Parker Deshawn L. | Urieta Johanna |
| 3 | Three Moons | 2/1 | Bermudez Samuel E. | West Aaron M. |
| 4 | Maravich | 8/1 | Yaranga Yuri | Szczepanski Emily |
| 5 | Lookin Like Lucky | 10/1 | Salazar Becerra Fernando | Langley Joshua |
| 6 | Predecessor | 20/1 | Tapara Brandon | Szczepanski Emily |
| 7 | Dowhateverittakes | 3/1 | Oliveros Charle | Reed Eric R. |
Pace Analysis
At one mile with maidens, the pace should be modest. These horses lack the seasoning to aggressively establish position early. Three Moons (PP3) and Classic Look (PP1, if he runs) both figure to be near the front, while Dowhateverittakes (PP7) may sit off the pace and try to close. Inside post positions are again favored for the mile distance, which benefits Classic Look and Life’s One if they have any tactical speed.
Key Contenders
Three Moons (PP3) at 2/1 is the morning line favorite and the consensus top pick. Trained by Aaron M. West with Samuel E. Bermudez up, this three-year-old gelding steps down in class from a higher maiden claiming level. The class drop, combined with the lighter weight at 118 pounds and a favorable inside-mid post, makes Three Moons the horse to beat.
Dowhateverittakes (PP7) at 3/1 finished well when second in a similar race last time and is endorsed by form analysis as the top contender based on recent running lines. Trained by Kentucky Derby-winning conditioner Eric R. Reed with Charle Oliveros aboard, this six-year-old mare draws the seven-post, which is a disadvantage at one mile. However, the Reed barn is a classy operation, and this mare appears to have the best late-race kick in the field.
Secondary Choices
Classic Look (PP1) at 5/2 draws the rail, which would be a huge positional advantage at one mile, but the stewards’ scratch watch creates uncertainty. If Classic Look runs, the rail draw combined with Bracho riding and the West training connection makes this one very dangerous. Monitor the scratch board.
Life’s One (PP2) at 6/1 draws the two-post, another favorable inside position for the mile. Trained by Johanna Urieta with Deshawn L. Parker up, this four-year-old colt has some back form that suggests competitiveness at this level.
Longshots
Maravich (PP4) at 8/1 and Lookin Like Lucky (PP5) at 10/1 round out the field as secondary exotics candidates. Lookin Like Lucky has placed at this level previously, giving him a claim on the minor awards.
Selections
Win: 3 Three Moons
Place: 7 Dowhateverittakes
Show: 1 Classic Look (if runs)
Betting Strategy: Three Moons is the most reliable play with the class drop and favorable post. If Classic Look scratches, the field weakens, and Three Moons becomes a strong single for multi-race sequences. Key Three Moons on top of exactas with Dowhateverittakes and Life’s One underneath.
Race 5 — Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $18,800
Post Time: 2:07 PM ET
Ohio-bred claiming for three-year-olds and upward. Claiming price $7,500. The largest field of the day with ten entered, plus two also-eligibles (Mor Crafty and Goldstriker). Watchoutforweaver (PP4) and Zakaria (PP6) are on the scratch watch.
| PP | Horse | ML Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Pink Z | 3/1 | Bowen Rocco | Pappada Julie A. |
| 2 | Private Drive | 10/1 | Chavez Alexander | Winters Michelle |
| 3 | Midnight Warship | 5/2 | Gonzalez Luis Antonio | Ibarra Marco |
| 4 | Watchoutforweaver | 12/1 | Diaz Angel I. | Juarez Lorenzo |
| 5 | Ray’s Empire | 15/1 | Barbaran Erik | Szczepanski Emily |
| 6 | Zakaria | 7/2 | Batista Luis Alberto | Yoder Susan D. |
| 7 | Midnight Voyage | 20/1 | Skerrett Jefferson | Yoder Susan D. |
| 8 | Weekend Buzz | 8/1 | Sosa Laureano | Calderon Ivan |
| 9 | Mails Here | 20/1 | Weatherly Bailey | Fletcher Jeff |
| 10 | Wildcat Bill | 10/1 | Rivera Luis Raul | Radosevich Jeffrey A. |
Pace Analysis
This is a full, contentious field at 5 1/2 furlongs where speed will be at a premium. Multiple runners have early speed, including Midnight Warship (PP3), The Pink Z (PP1), and potentially Weekend Buzz (PP8). With so many potential pace players, the fractions could be hot, which would set up closers for a late rally. However, at Mahoning Valley’s speed-favoring track, pressing speed still holds an edge if the pace does not become suicidal.
Key Contenders
Midnight Warship (PP3) at 5/2 is the morning line favorite and the consensus pick across multiple handicapping sources. Trained by Marco Ibarra with Luis Antonio Gonzalez up, this eight-year-old gelding draws a favorable inside-mid post and should be forwardly placed. The three-post allows him to save ground and dictate terms.
The Pink Z (PP1) at 3/1 draws the rail, which is a tactical advantage in a large-field sprint. Trained by Julie A. Pappada with Rocco Bowen riding, this seven-year-old gelding should break alertly from the inside and be in a stalking position. Bowen is an experienced rider who knows how to use the rail to his advantage.
Secondary Choices
Zakaria (PP6) at 7/2 is the third choice on the morning line, but the stewards’ scratch watch casts doubt on his participation. If Zakaria runs, trained by Susan D. Yoder, he brings competitive form and a running style that should keep him in contention.
Weekend Buzz (PP8) at 8/1 offers value as an experienced campaigner for trainer Ivan Calderon. Drawing wide is a concern at 5 1/2 furlongs, but in a field with a contested pace, a stalking trip from midfield could prove advantageous.
Wildcat Bill (PP10) at 10/1 draws the far outside, which is a significant disadvantage, but trainer Jeffrey A. Radosevich has been among the most successful conditioners at the meet. Luis Raul Rivera has an aggressive riding style that could overcome the wide draw if the pace is contested.
Longshots
Ray’s Empire (PP5) at 15/1 has Erik Barbaran in the irons, which always warrants attention. The price is generous for a horse with a live jockey in a wide-open race.
Selections
Win: 3 Midnight Warship
Place: 1 The Pink Z
Show: 8 Weekend Buzz
Betting Strategy: This large field at a short sprint distance is a prime spot for exotic wagering. The Pick 5 begins in Race 5, making this an important gateway race. Spread in the first leg of the Pick 5 using Midnight Warship and The Pink Z on top, with Weekend Buzz and Ray’s Empire as value adds. Trifecta keys of 3 with 1,8,10 with all provide opportunities for a nice score.
Race 6 — Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $11,100
Post Time: 2:35 PM ET
Claiming for fillies and mares aged three and upward, non-winners of two races since February 23. Claiming price $4,000. Field of eight.
| PP | Horse | ML Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Light Hearted | 20/1 | Weatherly Bailey | Ccamaque Marco |
| 2 | Lucky Phoenix | 12/1 | Yaranga Yuri | Spiess Shane M. |
| 3 | Blazing Zenna | 5/1 | Gomez Alejandro | Mahan Joseph P. |
| 4 | Maureenlovesfrank | 8/1 | Gonzalez Kevin | Poole Jami C. |
| 5 | She’s So Bearrish | 6/1 | Haldar David J. | Poole Jami C. |
| 6 | Tall Girl | 8/5 | Sosa Laureano | Calderon Ivan |
| 7 | Full Time Strutin | 15/1 | Diaz Angel I. | Gonzalez Donaciano |
| 8 | Right Trappe | 5/2 | Rivera Luis Raul | Rone Penny |
Pace Analysis
At 5 1/2 furlongs with fillies and mares, the pace should be moderate. Tall Girl (PP6) and Right Trappe (PP8) both have enough speed to be prominent, but neither is a pure front-runner. Blazing Zenna (PP3) may also show some early foot from the three-post. With a moderate pace likely, the speed-favoring surface should benefit the stalking types who can close from just off the leaders.
Key Contenders
Tall Girl (PP6) at 8/5 is the solid morning line favorite and the consensus pick. Trained by Ivan Calderon with Laureano Sosa aboard, this six-year-old mare is the class of the field at this $4,000 claiming level. The inside-mid post is acceptable, though not ideal for a six-post in a sprint. Calderon has been active at the meet, and this mare should be difficult to deny.
Right Trappe (PP8) at 5/2 is the principal rival and the top pick from one handicapping source. Trained by Penny Rone with Luis Raul Rivera up, this eight-year-old mare draws the widest stall, which is a legitimate concern at 5 1/2 furlongs. However, Rivera is an aggressive rider who can position horses effectively even from wide draws.
Secondary Choices
Blazing Zenna (PP3) at 5/1 draws a favorable inside-mid post and has some competitive back form. Trained by Joseph P. Mahan, this eight-year-old mare is the type that could sit a nice trip behind the speed and rally for a piece.
She’s So Bearrish (PP5) at 6/1 is one of two Jami C. Poole runners in the field (along with Maureenlovesfrank at PP4). The Poole barn has been active at the meet, and David J. Haldar is a capable rider. At 6/1, there is some value for the exotics.
Selections
Win: 6 Tall Girl
Place: 8 Right Trappe
Show: 3 Blazing Zenna
Betting Strategy: Tall Girl is the class of the field and a logical single in multi-race wagers. In exactas, key 6 on top with 8 and 3. For trifecta value, box 6,8,3 with Maureenlovesfrank as a fourth horse for a trifecta key of 6 with 3,4,8 with all.
Race 7 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $22,000
Post Time: 3:03 PM ET
Claiming for three-year-olds and upward at a $15,000 claiming price. Field of eight, though both Atkins (PP5) and Time the Avenger (PP4) are on the scratch watch.
| PP | Horse | ML Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High Strike | 2/1 | Bermudez Samuel E. | West Aaron M. |
| 2 | John’s Rock | 8/1 | Barbaran Erik | Farrior Anthony |
| 3 | Colonel Vargo | 10/1 | Houghton T. D. | Bailey Ricardo |
| 4 | Time the Avenger | 6/1 | Chavez Alexander | Rivera Nestor R. |
| 5 | Atkins | 4/1 | Salazar Becerra Fernando | Vecchio Caryn |
| 6 | Star Entertainer | 15/1 | Weatherly Bailey | Johnson Gary L. |
| 7 | Zaddy | 20/1 | Tapara Brandon | Lopez Jose A. |
| 8 | Trigger Point | 5/2 | Batista Luis Alberto | Bernardini Jay P. |
Pace Analysis
At six furlongs, this is the highest-class claiming race on the card and should produce a competitive pace. High Strike (PP1) and Trigger Point (PP8) both have tactical speed, and Atkins (PP5), if he runs, adds another potential pace player. If both Atkins and Time the Avenger scratch, the field drops to six runners, and the pace could ease, which benefits the front-running types.
Key Contenders
High Strike (PP1) at 2/1 is the morning line favorite and the pick from one handicapping source. Trained by Aaron M. West with Samuel E. Bermudez aboard, this six-year-old gelding draws the rail, which is a strong position at six furlongs on Mahoning Valley’s speed-favoring surface. West has had multiple entries throughout the card, suggesting the barn is in good form.
Trigger Point (PP8) at 5/2 is trained by Jay P. Bernardini with Luis Alberto Batista up. The Bernardini barn is among the most respected at Mahoning Valley, as evidenced by Bernardini’s role on the safety committee. Drawing the eight-post is a concern, but in a race that could lose two runners, the field dynamics may shift to make the wide draw less of an issue.
Secondary Choices
Colonel Vargo (PP3) at 10/1 is the value play of this race and is the top pick from two handicapping outlets, including a Brisnet spot play. Trained by Ricardo Bailey with T. D. Houghton aboard, this six-year-old gelding has been competitive at higher levels and could be sitting on a big effort. At double-digit odds, the risk-reward profile is excellent.
John’s Rock (PP2) at 8/1 has the advantage of Erik Barbaran riding for trainer Anthony Farrior. Barbaran is one of the leading riders at the meet, and the two-post is a favorable draw for the six-furlong distance. This veteran nine-year-old has been around the track many times and knows how to compete.
Selections
Win: 3 Colonel Vargo
Place: 1 High Strike
Show: 8 Trigger Point
Betting Strategy: Colonel Vargo at 10/1 is the value play of the card and the best win bet on the card from a price perspective. Key Colonel Vargo in exactas on top of High Strike and Trigger Point. For those who prefer safer plays, High Strike from the rail is the class of the field at a shorter price. In the Pick 3 (Races 7-9), spreading with Colonel Vargo and High Strike in the first leg creates value throughout.
Race 8 — Allowance, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $26,400
Post Time: 3:31 PM ET
Allowance for fillies and mares aged three and upward, non-winners of three races. Ohio-registered foals preferred. Field of eight.
| PP | Horse | ML Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canadian Bear | 10/1 | Tapara Luis | Bernardini Jay P. |
| 2 | No No No Never (IRE) | 3/1 | Oliveros Charle | Reed Eric R. |
| 3 | Queen in the Deck | 5/2 | Bracho Jose A. | Radosevich Justin |
| 4 | J Rivers | 7/2 | Rivera Luis Raul | Radosevich Jeffrey A. |
| 5 | Khali J | 4/1 | Barbaran Erik | Gorham Robert M. |
| 6 | As Lucky | 8/1 | Weatherly Bailey | Reed Eric R. |
| 7 | Star Ella | 15/1 | Haldar David J. | Rivera Nestor R. |
| 8 | Miss Serafina | 15/1 | Tapara Brandon | Bernardini Jay P. |
Pace Analysis
At six furlongs, this allowance race for fillies and mares should produce a contested pace. Queen in the Deck (PP3) and Khali J (PP5) both figure to be forwardly placed. No No No Never (PP2) can also show early speed from the inside. With at least three horses likely pressing, the fractions could be honest, which might set up for a closer or a stalker to rally in the stretch.
Key Contenders
Queen in the Deck (PP3) at 5/2 is the morning line favorite, trained by Justin Radosevich with leading rider Jose A. Bracho aboard. This is the most potent rider-trainer combination at the meet. The three-year-old filly draws a favorable mid-post and should be forwardly placed. Bracho’s tactical awareness and the Radosevich barn’s high win percentage make this the horse to beat.
No No No Never (PP2) at 3/1 adds an international dimension as an Irish-bred, trained by Kentucky Derby-winning conditioner Eric R. Reed with Charle Oliveros up. Reed’s presence at any level demands respect, and this six-year-old mare draws a favorable inside post. The quality of the Reed operation could be the difference.
Secondary Choices
J Rivers (PP4) at 7/2 is the consensus pick from one handicapping source and is trained by Jeffrey A. Radosevich with Luis Raul Rivera riding. The father of Justin Radosevich, Jeffrey A. Radosevich is arguably the top trainer at the meet. This is a Radosevich-dominated race with two runners from the family barn (Queen in the Deck from Justin, J Rivers from Jeffrey), and bettors should consider a Radosevich exacta of 3 over 4 or 4 over 3.
Khali J (PP5) at 4/1 is the pick from another handicapping source and has Erik Barbaran riding for trainer Robert M. Gorham. Barbaran is always dangerous, and at 4/1, there is value if the Radosevich runners underperform.
Selections
Win: 3 Queen in the Deck
Place: 2 No No No Never
Show: 4 J Rivers
Betting Strategy: The Radosevich-Bracho connection makes Queen in the Deck the top play. Consider a Radosevich exacta of 3 with 4 and reverse. Key Queen in the Deck in trifectas with No No No Never, J Rivers, and Khali J underneath. In the Pick 3 finishing leg, Queen in the Deck is a strong single.
Race 9 — Allowance, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $25,900
Post Time: 3:59 PM ET
Allowance for three-year-olds and upward, non-winners of two races. Field of eight, with Fracture (PP7) listed as also-eligible.
| PP | Horse | ML Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunner | 15/1 | Weatherly Bailey | Reed Eric R. |
| 2 | All About Croge | 20/1 | Haldar David J. | Brown, Jr. Paul H. |
| 3 | Fielding | 2/1 | Rivera Luis Raul | Radosevich Jeffrey A. |
| 4 | Abundant Energy | 10/1 | Barbaran Erik | Bernardini Jay P. |
| 5 | Just Deal | 9/5 | Bracho Jose A. | O’Neill Doug F. |
| 6 | A Ok | 6/1 | Tapara Brandon | Bernardini Jay P. |
| 7 | Fracture | 9/2 | Parker Deshawn L. | Leitch Daniel |
| 8 | Nastinate | 20/1 | Batista Luis Alberto | Lopez Jose A. |
Pace Analysis
This is a deep, quality allowance race to close the card. At six furlongs, the pace should be contested with Just Deal (PP5), Fielding (PP3), and A Ok (PP6) all capable of pressing. The inside posts favor Fielding, while Just Deal from the five-post is well positioned to sit just off the speed. If the pace is honest, closers like Fracture (if he draws in) could benefit.
Key Contenders
Just Deal (PP5) at 9/5 is the morning line favorite and is rated 84 by form analysts, making him the highest-rated horse in the field along with Fielding. Trained by Doug F. O’Neill, one of the most accomplished trainers in American racing, with Bracho riding, this four-year-old gelding has strong form and drops in class. The O’Neill-Bracho connection is a potent one, and Just Deal’s form analysis indicates he is “the one to beat”.
Fielding (PP3) at 2/1 is the second choice and is rated 85 by form analysts, actually the highest rating in the field. Trained by Jeffrey A. Radosevich with Luis Raul Rivera aboard, this four-year-old gelding comes off a good run at Churchill Downs, which represents a significant form boost when dropping back to Mahoning Valley. The consensus selection from one handicapping outlet, Fielding draws a favorable three-post and should be forwardly placed.
Secondary Choices
Fracture (PP7) at 9/2 showed promise with a close second at Mahoning Valley last time. Trained by Daniel Leitch with Deshawn L. Parker up, this five-year-old gelding is listed as also-eligible and may not draw into the race. If he does, at 9/2 or higher, there is definite value. He is also a Brisnet spot play selection.
A Ok (PP6) at 6/1 is trained by Jay P. Bernardini with Brandon Tapara riding. This three-year-old gelding won his maiden at Mahoning Valley on January 6 and gets the 116-pound weight advantage as a three-year-old. The Bernardini barn has been competitive, and the lighter weight is a significant edge at this level.
Longshots
Abundant Energy (PP4) at 10/1 is another Bernardini trainee who carries just 116 pounds as a three-year-old. Erik Barbaran in the irons elevates the chances of any horse. At double-digit odds, this is a live longshot for exotics.
Selections
Win: 5 Just Deal
Place: 3 Fielding
Show: 6 A Ok
Betting Strategy: Just Deal versus Fielding is the play in the nightcap. In exactas, play both ways: 5 with 3 and 3 with 5. Key both on top with A Ok, Fracture, and Abundant Energy underneath in trifectas. This race is the final leg of the Pick 5 and the Pick 3, making it essential for horizontal exotic players.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jose A. Bracho is the leading rider at the Mahoning Valley meet and has five mounts today in Races 2 (Magic Motown), 3 (not assigned pending scratches — actually rides Ekati’s Way in R3), 4 (Classic Look), 8 (Queen in the Deck), and 9 (Just Deal). Bracho’s ability to rate horses and find the best trip makes him a valuable asset in any race. His mounts today include three morning line favorites or near-favorites, making him the most consequential jockey on the card.
Erik Barbaran has been among the top riders at the meet with approximately a 22% win rate. He rides Justtakethecannoli (PP6) in Race 1, Willie T (PP7) in Race 2, Ray’s Empire (PP5) in Race 5, Khali J (PP5) in Race 8, and Abundant Energy (PP4) in Race 9. Barbaran’s aggressive riding style suits Mahoning Valley’s speed-favoring surface. Even on longer-priced horses, his presence demands attention.
Rocco Bowen is a veteran rider with strong tactical skills, riding Hidden Access (PP3) in Race 3 and The Pink Z (PP1) in Race 5. Bowen excels on the rail and in small fields where he can dictate pace. His mount on The Pink Z from the rail in the large-field Race 5 is particularly noteworthy.
Luis Raul Rivera rides an aggressive style that makes him effective on closer types. He has mounts on Wildcat Bill (PP10) in Race 5, Right Trappe (PP8) in Race 6, J Rivers (PP4) in Race 8, and Fielding (PP3) in Race 9. His mount on Fielding in the closer is his best chance of the day.
Brandon Tapara has multiple engagements and has been a consistent presence in the jockey colony. He rides Run Pancita (PP1) in Race 2, Predecessor (PP6) in Race 4, Zaddy (PP7) in Race 7, Miss Serafina (PP8) in Race 8, and A Ok (PP6) in Race 9.
Samuel E. Bermudez picks up key mounts in Race 1 (Honor and Obay, PP3) on the 2/1 favorite and Race 7 (High Strike, PP1) on the 2/1 morning line choice. Bermudez could have a big day from the inside posts.
Alexander Chavez rides Big Lucky (PP4) in Race 3 and Private Drive (PP2) in Race 5. His best chance is Big Lucky in the best race on the card.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Aaron M. West has three entries on the card: Honor and Obay (PP3) in Race 1, Three Moons (PP3) in Race 4, and High Strike (PP1) in Race 7. West’s barn has been active and competitive throughout the meet. Having the morning line favorites or contenders in three races suggests the barn is in excellent form. Classic Look (PP1) in Race 4 would be a fourth entry if not for the scratch watch.
The Radosevich family controls multiple angles throughout the card. Justin Radosevich trains Magic Motown (PP3) in Race 2 and Queen in the Deck (PP3) in Race 8. Jeffrey A. Radosevich trains Wildcat Bill (PP10) in Race 5, J Rivers (PP4) in Race 8, and Fielding (PP3) in Race 9. Both trainers are among the leading conditioners at the meet, and their runners consistently show up ready to compete.
Jay P. Bernardini is a respected operation at Mahoning Valley and serves on the track’s safety committee. He trains Trigger Point (PP8) in Race 7, Canadian Bear (PP1) in Race 8, Miss Serafina (PP8) in Race 8, Abundant Energy (PP4) in Race 9, and A Ok (PP6) in Race 9. Two runners in each of Races 8 and 9 gives Bernardini multiple shots in the late card.
Eric R. Reed, the 2022 Kentucky Derby-winning trainer of Rich Strike, has runners in Race 4 (Dowhateverittakes, PP7), Race 8 (No No No Never, PP2; As Lucky, PP6), and Race 9 (Gunner, PP1). Reed’s presence at Mahoning Valley adds significant credibility, and his runners should not be dismissed regardless of price.
Doug F. O’Neill, a two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer, sends out Just Deal (PP5) in Race 9. O’Neill’s national-class operation shipping a runner to Mahoning Valley suggests serious intent. Just Deal is likely the best horse on the grounds today.
Nestor R. Rivera trains Big Lucky (PP4) and Eddie M (PP5, if he runs) in Race 3, Time the Avenger (PP4, scratch watch) in Race 7, and Star Ella (PP7) in Race 8. Rivera’s best opportunity is Big Lucky in the featured Race 3.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best value play on the entire card is Colonel Vargo (PP3) in Race 7 at 10/1 morning line odds. Two major handicapping outlets independently identified Colonel Vargo as their top selection in Race 7, suggesting his odds should be significantly shorter than the 10/1 line. Trained by Ricardo Bailey with T. D. Houghton aboard, Colonel Vargo has form at higher levels and draws a favorable three-post. A win bet at 10/1 or higher, combined with exacta keys over the favorites, is the best single wager of the day.
The second-best value play is Fielding (PP3) in Race 9 at 2/1 against Just Deal at 9/5. While Just Deal has the better trainer (O’Neill), Fielding has the higher form rating (85 vs. 84), a better post position (3 vs. 5), and the top rider-trainer combo at the meet in Rivera-Radosevich. Playing the exacta both ways between Just Deal and Fielding should be profitable.
Pick 5 Strategy (Races 5-9): The Pick 5 beginning in Race 5 offers the best multi-race wagering opportunity. The recommended ticket structure:
Race 5 (Leg 1): Midnight Warship (3), The Pink Z (1) — two horses.
Race 6 (Leg 2): Tall Girl (6) — single.
Race 7 (Leg 3): Colonel Vargo (3), High Strike (1), Trigger Point (8) — three horses.
Race 8 (Leg 4): Queen in the Deck (3), No No No Never (2) — two horses.
Race 9 (Leg 5): Just Deal (5), Fielding (3) — two horses.
This ticket uses 24 combinations. At $0.50 per combination, the total cost is $12.00. Singling Tall Girl in Race 6 provides the cost efficiency needed to spread in the more competitive races.
Daily Double Plays: The Race 1-2 daily double using Bizy Dreamin (4) and Justtakethecannoli (6) over Magic Motown (3) creates four combinations at $1.00 each for $4.00 total. The Race 8-9 late double using Queen in the Deck (3) over Just Deal (5) and Fielding (3) creates two combinations at $2.00 each for $4.00 total.
Best Singles for Multi-Race Wagers: Magic Motown in Race 2 and Tall Girl in Race 6 are the two most reliable singles on the card. In any Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 5 sequence that includes these races, using them as singles frees up budget to spread in more competitive legs.
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Here’s the full race day analysis for Mahoning Valley on February 23, 2026. The report covers all nine races in detail, including:
- Race day overview with scratch watch alerts for seven horses across five races
- Weather forecast (cloudy, 33-37°F) and track condition analysis
- Track bias breakdown favoring speed and inside-to-middle posts
- Race-by-race pace analysis, key contenders, secondary choices, longshots, and betting strategies
- Jockey notes highlighting Bracho’s five-mount card and Barbaran’s aggressive style
- Trainer insights on the Radosevich family dominance, plus Doug O’Neill and Eric Reed shippers
- Best value plays: Colonel Vargo at 10/1 in Race 7 and a detailed $12 Pick 5 ticket structure
Key watch items before betting: monitor the scratch board closely, especially Eddie M in Race 3, Classic Look in Race 4, and Atkins/Time the Avenger in Race 7, as those scratches significantly reshape the fields.
