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Mahoning Valley Race Course in Youngstown, Ohio, presents a nine-race card on Tuesday, February 24, 2026, with a first post time of 12:15 PM Eastern. The card features a blend of claiming, allowance, starter optional claiming, maiden claiming, and maiden special weight events contested at distances ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to one mile, all on the dirt.
Significant scratches have reshaped several races on this card. Race 3 loses Golden Degree (PP5). Race 4 loses two entrants: Sobieski (PP1) and Tie Breaker Lennie (PP7). Race 5 sees the morning-line favorite Quality Kiss (PP2) scratched. Race 7 has been decimated, with Compute This (PP1), Bella Flora (PP6), and Echo Valley (PP7) all withdrawn, leaving just four runners. Race 9 has been particularly hard hit, losing H F S Memories (PP1), Red Ohio Bred (PP2), El Canelo One (PP5), Rivers of Wealth (PP6), and Rascal Flash (PP8, scratched by stewards), leaving approximately six horses remaining.
Hot trainers entering the card include Nestor Rivera (7 wins from 36 starts over the last 21 days), Jay Bernardini (7 from 33), and Anthony Farrior (7 from 34). All three have multiple runners scattered throughout the card and deserve strong consideration in all multi-race exotics.
Weather and Track Conditions
As of the 8:24 AM weather observation at Youngstown-Warren Regional Airport, the temperature is 16 degrees Fahrenheit with mostly cloudy skies and a light breeze at 5.8 mph. The high temperature is expected to reach only 33 degrees, with an overnight low of 22 degrees. There is a 74% probability of precipitation during the day.
The track surface is listed as Muddy to Sloppy. This is consistent with the pattern seen in recent weeks at Mahoning Valley, where the surface has frequently been rated sloppy throughout February due to freeze-thaw cycles and intermittent precipitation. Cold morning temperatures freezing the surface followed by slight afternoon warming will likely keep the track in a challenging, moisture-laden state throughout the card.
Horseplayers should factor the off track heavily into pace analysis and horse selection. Horses with demonstrated ability on wet surfaces gain a significant edge in these conditions.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Mahoning Valley generally plays as a speed-favoring dirt course, particularly at the standard six-furlong sprint distance. Horses on or near the lead entering the turn hold a measurable advantage in most races.
In sprints, inside to middle post positions carry a mild advantage, allowing runners to save ground into the single turn while maintaining tactical options. Horses drawn wide must work harder to secure position, which can be costly when pace pressure develops.
However, the winter months introduce a complicating factor. Freeze-thaw cycles can produce a dead rail, creating what handicappers describe as an “outside flow” bias where paths two to four off the fence become the preferred running lanes. With the sloppy/muddy conditions in play today, the inside portion of the track may be less reliable than on fast surfaces. Early-race observation is critical: if inside horses underperform with clean trips in Races 1 and 2, an outside-lane preference is likely in play for the remainder of the card.
For the one-mile races (Races 1 and 4 today), the short run to the first turn places a premium on inside post positions and tactical speed. Horses drawn wide in one-mile events often use extra energy to secure position into the first bend, which compromises late-race stamina.
Race 1 — Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $10,900
Post Time: 12:15 PM ET
Claiming $4,000 for three-year-olds and upward which have not won a race since February 24. Eight entered, all expected to run. Note that Agnello’s Dream (PP4) has a weight adjustment down to 120 lbs.
Pace Analysis
At one mile with the short run to the first turn, early position is critical. Indian Fever (PP1) and Will E Sutton (PP3) both have tactical speed and draw favorable inside-to-middle gates. Not Yet Charlie (PP5) may also show some early intent. The pace should be moderate to honest, with no confirmed gate-to-wire type in the field. This sets up as a race where a horse with tactical speed from an inside draw can control the tempo and hold off closers in the lane.
Key Contenders
Agnello’s Dream (PP4) is installed as the 8/5 morning-line favorite and was the top selection from multiple handicapping sources before today. The six-year-old gelding, trained by Jeffrey Skerrett and ridden by Jefferson Skerrett, showed strong recent form with a runner-up effort that puts him squarely at the top of this field. The weight reduction to 120 lbs is a bonus. The four-post is a solid draw for the mile distance, giving him a clean trip into the first turn. He is the one to beat.
Indian Fever (PP1) at 7/2 on the morning line draws the rail, which is advantageous at one mile for saving ground into the first turn. Trained by Timothy Hamm and ridden by Laureano Sosa, this 11-year-old gelding has extensive experience at Mahoning Valley. The inside draw and tactical speed profile make him a dangerous contender, especially if the rail holds up in the early races.
Secondary Choices
Will E Sutton (PP3) at 4/1 was the selection from handicappers who favored his recent form. Trained by Manuel Vlaun and ridden by Chelsey Keiser, this eight-year-old gelding has the mid-post position that is ideal at the mile distance. He should sit a nice stalking trip and has the class to be competitive in the stretch.
Not Yet Charlie (PP5) at 6/1 is trained by Robert Cline and ridden by Brandon Tapara. He has the tactical speed to be involved early from the five-post and merits inclusion in multi-race wagers.
Longshots
Broadway Sky (PP7) at 12/1 is an interesting longshot for trainer Michelle Winters with Alexander Chavez aboard. He has been competitive at this level and could rally from off the pace if the speed types tire in the stretch. Gold Buckle (PP8) at 8/1 for trainer Shane Spiess is another to watch for underneath spots.
Betting Strategy
Agnello’s Dream is a solid top choice but at short odds, the best play is to use him on top in exactas and trifectas keyed to Will E Sutton, Indian Fever, and Not Yet Charlie. Broadway Sky at 12/1 provides value as a trifecta and superfecta inclusion.
Selections
Win: 4 Agnello’s Dream
Place: 1 Indian Fever
Show: 3 Will E Sutton
Race 2 — Starter Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $25,000
Post Time: 12:43 PM ET
For fillies and mares three years old and upward which have started for a claiming price of $15,000 or less in 2025-2026. Seven entered, no scratches.
Pace Analysis
At six furlongs on a sloppy surface, early speed is at a premium. Lucky Cougar (PP1) and Socialbutterflytam (PP6) both have forwardly placed running styles. Loaded Once More (PP5) may also show some early intent. The pace is unlikely to be suicidal with only seven runners, which benefits the speed horses. Inside to middle posts carry a mild edge in sprints here.
Key Contenders
Lucky Cougar (PP1) is the 8/5 morning-line favorite and the top pick from major handicapping sources. Trained by Nestor Rivera, who is one of the hottest trainers at the current meet with 7 wins from 36 starts in the last three weeks, and ridden by Fernando Salazar Becerra. The five-year-old mare draws the rail, which is a solid spot in a sprint with a moderate pace. Rivera’s current form gives this runner significant trainer intent.
Socialbutterflytam (PP6) at 5/2 was favored by other handicapping analysts as their top pick in this race. Trained by William Cowans and ridden by Dylan Machado, this five-year-old mare has recent competitive form and the tactical ability to sit just off the pace and close. The six-post is a bit wide but manageable in a seven-horse field.
Secondary Choices
Larimar (PP2) at 5/1 is trained by Jami Poole and ridden by Luis Alberto Batista. The nine-year-old mare has experience at this level and the inside-to-middle draw is favorable. She is a solid exacta and trifecta candidate.
Loaded Once More (PP5) at 6/1 is trained by Jay Bernardini, another of the top trainers at the meet, and ridden by Erik Barbaran. The Bernardini-Barbaran connection has been productive, and this mare could prove the value play if overlooked.
Longshots
Hartful Hope (PP4) at 8/1 for trainer Richard Zielinski with Brandon Tapara aboard merits a look at a price. Lady Wellington (PP7) at 12/1 is the longest shot but could surprise if the pace falls apart.
Betting Strategy
Lucky Cougar looks legitimate at the top, but Socialbutterflytam at 5/2 offers a competitive alternative. A rolling daily double from Race 1 into Race 2 using Agnello’s Dream with Lucky Cougar and Socialbutterflytam is an efficient play. In the exacta, box Lucky Cougar and Socialbutterflytam, then add Larimar and Loaded Once More underneath for trifecta depth.
Selections
Win: 1 Lucky Cougar
Place: 6 Socialbutterflytam
Show: 2 Larimar
Race 3 — Allowance, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $26,400
Post Time: 1:11 PM ET
For fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won two races other than maiden, claiming, starter, or Ohio bred. Seven entered originally, Golden Degree (PP5) is scratched, leaving six runners. Shez Shacked Up (PP2) is on the scratch watch as well.
Pace Analysis
With six runners going six furlongs on a wet track, the pace should be manageable. A Little Canela (PP6) and Az We Speak (PP3) both have some tactical speed. Bellofthebluegrass (PP4) may also press the early pace. This shapes up as a moderate pace scenario that favors horses with tactical speed who can save ground.
Key Contenders
A Little Canela (PP6) at 3/1 is the consensus top pick from multiple handicapping sources and the Brisnet Staff selection. Trained by Jay Bernardini, who is in outstanding form with 7 wins from 33 starts recently, and ridden by Luis Tapara. This five-year-old mare has the tactical versatility to adapt to whatever pace develops and benefits from one of the most productive trainer-jockey combinations on the grounds.
My Girl Kew (PP7) at 7/2 is trained by Michael J. Maker, who ranks among the top trainers in North America, and ridden by Luis Raul Rivera. Maker’s national reach gives this filly the credibility of a top-tier barn, and Rivera is among the most reliable riders at the meet. She is the primary threat to A Little Canela.
Secondary Choices
Az We Speak (PP3) at 5/1 is trained by Robert Gorham and ridden by Fernando Salazar Becerra. She has shown competitive form and draws a favorable inside post for the sprint distance.
Bellofthebluegrass (PP4) was the top pick from one handicapping source. Trained by Anthony Farrior, another of the leading trainers at the meet, and ridden by Erik Barbaran. She has the class to compete and the Farrior barn’s recent form demands respect.
Longshots
Banana Pudding (PP1) at 15/1 has the rail advantage and could hang around at a big price if the speed types tire. She is worth a small exotic ticket inclusion.
Betting Strategy
A Little Canela at 3/1 is fair value for a horse with a leading trainer and strong form. Use her as a single in the daily double sequence. In the trifecta, key A Little Canela and My Girl Kew on top with Az We Speak, Bellofthebluegrass, and Banana Pudding underneath.
Selections
Win: 6 A Little Canela
Place: 7 My Girl Kew
Show: 3 Az We Speak
Race 4 — Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $12,200
Post Time: 1:39 PM ET
Claiming $5,000 for three-year-olds and upward which have never won three races. Eight entered originally, with Sobieski (PP1) and Tie Breaker Lennie (PP7) scratched, leaving six runners.
Pace Analysis
At one mile with the first-turn premium, the inside draws are critical. With Sobieski out, the field dynamics shift. Charlieslitldevil (PP4) and Greewhiz (PP8) both have tactical speed. Action Man (PP3) may also show early intent from the three-post. The pace should be moderate with only six runners, favoring horses who can control the tempo and save ground through the turns.
Key Contenders
Charlieslitldevil (PP4) at 3/1 on the morning line is the new favorite with Sobieski’s scratch. Trained by Marco Ccamaque and ridden by Deshawn Parker, this five-year-old gelding has won at this level and draws a mid-post position that is workable at one mile.
Greewhiz (PP8) at 4/1 was the selection from handicappers and is trained by Rey Juarez-Mendoza with Victor Fernandez in the irons. The wide post is a disadvantage at one mile given the short run to the first turn, but in a reduced field of six, it becomes less of a concern.
Secondary Choices
Action Man (PP3) at 6/1 is trained by Jason DaCosta and ridden by Luis Alberto Batista. The three-post is a strong draw at one mile, and DaCosta is a respected conditioner who could have this gelding ready for a top effort.
Breeze the Bayou (PP5) at 8/1 is the Skerrett-Skerrett (trainer-jockey) team entry. Jefferson Skerrett’s claim of 5 lbs off the assigned weight provides a meaningful advantage at this level.
Longshots
Photo Hop (PP6) at 10/1 has some competitive form and could improve with the Weatherly-Schuster combination. He merits exotic ticket inclusion at his price.
Betting Strategy
With Sobieski out, this race is more open. Charlieslitldevil at 3/1 and Greewhiz at 4/1 are the logical top two. Action Man at 6/1 from the advantageous three-post offers value. A trifecta box of Charlieslitldevil, Greewhiz, and Action Man, with Breeze the Bayou added underneath for a key trifecta, is a sound approach.
Selections
Win: 4 Charlieslitldevil
Place: 8 Greewhiz
Show: 3 Action Man
Race 5 — Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $16,100
Post Time: 2:07 PM ET
For registered Ohio bred maidens, three through six years old. Claiming $7,500. Ten entered originally, with Quality Kiss (PP2) scratched, leaving nine runners. Bold Windsor (PP6) and Lucky Kater (PP7) are on the scratch watch. Note that Cricklewood (PP3) is getting first-time blinkers today.
Pace Analysis
With nine runners going six furlongs, there is enough early speed in the field to create a contested pace. Indy’s Hope (PP5), Donald’s Nation (PP10), and Skiptheguilttrip (PP1) all have some tactical speed. The large field and contested pace could set up for closers, but at Mahoning Valley’s speed-favoring surface, pressing speed still holds an edge if the pace is not suicidal.
Key Contenders
Indy’s Hope (PP5) at 9/2 becomes the key contender with Quality Kiss scratched. Ridden by Chelsey Keiser and trained by Ivan Vazquez, this five-year-old gelding has shown flashes of ability and draws a middle post that is ideal in sprints. He was the consensus second choice behind Quality Kiss and now inherits the top spot.
Donald’s Nation (PP10) at 5/1 is trained by Manuel Vlaun and ridden by Angel Diaz. The wide post is a concern in a field of this size, but the gelding has shown enough ability to contend if he avoids traffic trouble.
Secondary Choices
Formyboys (PP4) at 6/1 is trained by Emily Szczepanski and ridden by Yuri Yaranga. The four-post is favorable and he has shown competitive form in recent starts.
Skiptheguilttrip (PP1) at 8/1 draws the rail and could benefit from saving ground in a large field. Trained by Paul Overholt and ridden by Brandon Tapara, he could spring a mild upset if the pace unfolds favorably.
Longshots
Cricklewood (PP3) at 10/1 is the most interesting longshot. This three-year-old for trainer Craig Sweeting gets first-time blinkers, which is a significant equipment change that can produce improvement. Ridden by German Terraza, the three-post is a strong draw. If the blinkers work, he could outrun his odds.
Triangulo Rojo (PP8) at 15/1 is another three-year-old with the weight advantage at 118 lbs. Trained by Rey Juarez-Mendoza and ridden by Alejandro Gomez, he could provide a surprise at a big price.
Betting Strategy
With the favorite scratched, this maiden claiming race becomes wide open and ripe for exotic value. Use Indy’s Hope and Donald’s Nation on top, and spread underneath to Formyboys, Skiptheguilttrip, and Cricklewood. A first-time blinker play on Cricklewood at 10/1 makes him worth a small win/place bet as well.
Selections
Win: 5 Indy’s Hope
Place: 10 Donald’s Nation
Show: 4 Formyboys
Race 6 — Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $13,000
Post Time: 2:35 PM ET
Claiming $5,000 for three-year-olds and upward which have not won two races since August 24. Ten entered, with Bucket List (PP5) and Mexitexafornia (PP7) on the scratch watch. No confirmed scratches at time of analysis.
Pace Analysis
This is a full, contentious field at 5 1/2 furlongs where early speed will be fiercely contested. Game Boy Benny (PP1), Collectorate (PP2), Don’t Cross Jack (PP3), and Boudin (PP10) all have some tactical speed. With multiple pace players, the fractions could get hot, which theoretically sets up closers for a late rally. However, at Mahoning Valley’s speed-favoring surface, pressing speed still holds an edge if the pace is not suicidal.
Key Contenders
Boudin (PP10) at 3/1 is the consensus top pick from multiple handicapping sources. Trained by Jay Bernardini, who is among the hottest trainers at the meet, and ridden by Brandon Tapara. Despite the wide draw in a 10-horse field, Bernardini’s current win rate and the six-year-old horse’s class advantage over this field make him the one to beat. He should have enough tactical speed to work out a trip.
Collectorate (PP2) at 9/2 is trained by Jose Bracho Jr. and ridden by Jose Bracho. The father-son combination has been productive at Mahoning Valley, and the two-post is a strong draw for a sprint. He can press the pace from the inside and hold position through the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Flowerpecker (PP4) at 6/1 is trained by Brian Schling and ridden by Deshawn Parker. The ten-year-old gelding has been remarkably consistent and the mid-post draw is favorable.
Don’t Cross Jack (PP3) at 8/1 is trained by Jabdiel Castillo and ridden by German Terraza. He draws the three-post and has enough tactical speed to be involved early.
Longshots
Hagler (PP9) at 15/1 has some competitive form and could rally late if the pace collapses. The Bowen-Carmichael combination is worth respecting at a price. So Dialed In (PP6) at 12/1 gets the Skerrett-Skerrett claim weight advantage.
Betting Strategy
Boudin is the logical top choice but faces a contentious pace scenario from the widest post. Spreading in the trifecta makes sense. Key Boudin and Collectorate on top with Flowerpecker, Don’t Cross Jack, and Hagler underneath. The Pick 3 beginning in Race 4 should include Boudin as a single here if the bankroll allows.
Selections
Win: 10 Boudin
Place: 2 Collectorate
Show: 4 Flowerpecker
Race 7 — Allowance, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $35,100
Post Time: 3:03 PM ET
For registered Ohio bred fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won three races. Seven entered originally, but with Compute This (PP1), Bella Flora (PP6), and Echo Valley (PP7) all scratched, only four runners remain. This dramatically changes the complexion of the race. The morning-line favorites have all been removed.
Pace Analysis
With only four runners, the pace dynamic becomes significantly simplified. Midnight Goddess (PP5) and Lesotho (PP4) have shown some tactical speed. Mobil Ensign (PP2) could press as well. In a four-horse field on a sloppy surface, the pace should be moderate, and the race likely becomes a test of class and stamina in the stretch.
Key Contenders
Midnight Goddess (PP5) at 8/1 on the original morning line becomes the likely new favorite with the top three choices scratched. Trained by Hugo Andrade and ridden by Alexander Crispin, she has shown competitive form and now faces a dramatically reduced field. The five-post is a comfortable draw in a four-horse sprint.
Lesotho (PP4) at 12/1 on the original line is trained by Robert Cline and ridden by Brandon Tapara. She should improve significantly in a field of this size, and Tapara’s aggressive riding style could be well suited to dictating terms in a small field.
Secondary Choices
Mobil Ensign (PP2) at 15/1 on the original line is trained by Rodney Faulkner and ridden by Angel Diaz. She draws inside and could be forwardly placed from the start.
Razzberry Ripple (PP3) at 20/1 on the original line is the longest shot remaining, but in a four-horse field, anything can happen. Trained by Saul Morales and ridden by Alejandro Gomez.
Betting Strategy
In a four-horse field, the win pool will be thin and odds compressed. With all the favorites scratched, the field is essentially a scramble. Midnight Goddess and Lesotho are the two most logical contenders. An exacta box of Midnight Goddess and Lesotho with a saver exacta including Mobil Ensign is the play. This is a race to bet conservatively in isolation but is valuable as part of multi-race sequences.
Selections
Win: 5 Midnight Goddess
Place: 4 Lesotho
Show: 2 Mobil Ensign
Race 8 — Allowance, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $25,900
Post Time: 3:31 PM ET
For fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter, or Ohio bred or which have never won two races. Ten entered, with Flashy N (PP6) and Saltmakeshersweet (PP10) on the scratch watch. Popstyle (PP7) has a weight adjustment to 120 lbs but appears to still be running.
Pace Analysis
At 5 1/2 furlongs with a large field, there is significant early speed. Kingdom Trails (PP3) has shown front-running ability in recent races, including a decisive win at one mile on February 16. Queenofthebuckeye (PP1) and Flashy N (PP6) may also show speed. The pace is likely to be contested, which could set up for closers.
Key Contenders
Popstyle (PP7) at 9/2 is the consensus top selection from multiple handicapping sources. Trained by Jeff Fletcher and ridden by Yuri Yaranga, this four-year-old filly has shown consistent form and the weight reduction to 120 lbs is a positive angle. At 5 1/2 furlongs, she has the tactical versatility to sit off contested speed and close.
Wellareyouhappynow (PP8) at 5/1 is trained by Erin Thompson and ridden by Victor Fernandez. She has demonstrated competitive ability at this level and could be the main threat to Popstyle.
Secondary Choices
Alien Princess (PP9) at 6/1 is trained by Jay Bernardini, one of the hottest trainers on the grounds, and ridden by Erik Barbaran. Any Bernardini runner at this meet demands respect, and the combination with Barbaran has been productive.
Kingdom Trails (PP3) at 8/1 is trained by Nestor Rivera, another of the leading trainers, and ridden by Angel Diaz. She showed an impressive wire-to-wire win at one mile on February 16, though the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs is a question. If she can translate that form to the sprint distance, she has the class edge.
Longshots
The Devil’s Dream (PP5) at 10/1 for trainer Gary Johnson with Mauro Cedillo aboard merits an exotic ticket inclusion at her price. Don’t Listen (PP4) for trainer Jeffrey Radosevich with Luis Raul Rivera is another at a price worth considering.
Betting Strategy
Popstyle at 9/2 is the top play, with Alien Princess offering the strongest trainer angle. Use Popstyle on top in exactas with Wellareyouhappynow, Alien Princess, and Kingdom Trails underneath. In the trifecta, include The Devil’s Dream for depth at a price.
Selections
Win: 7 Popstyle
Place: 9 Alien Princess
Show: 8 Wellareyouhappynow
Race 9 — Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $31,800
Post Time: 3:59 PM ET
For accredited Ohio bred maidens, three years old. Weight 122 lbs. Twelve entered originally, but massive scratches have reduced this field significantly. H F S Memories (PP1), Red Ohio Bred (PP2), Money Magic (PP4, weight adjusted to 120 but still expected to run), El Canelo One (PP5), Rivers of Wealth (PP6), and Rascal Flash (PP8, scratched by stewards) are all out. This leaves approximately six to seven runners: Motown Flattery (PP3), Money Magic (PP4), Lowells Legacy (PP7), My Paisan (PP9), Dragon Hunter (PP10), Markaway (PP11), and Chasing Orion (PP12).
Pace Analysis
With a reduced field of first-time or lightly raced three-year-olds going six furlongs, the pace picture is uncertain. Dragon Hunter (PP10) and Lowells Legacy (PP7) may show some early speed. In maiden special weight races, the pace is often chaotic as inexperienced runners find their footing. On the sloppy surface, tactical speed and the ability to handle an off track will be paramount.
Key Contenders
Dragon Hunter (PP10) is the top selection from one major handicapping source and is trained by Penny Rone with Erik Barbaran aboard. Barbaran has been riding at a strong clip this meet, and Rone has been competitive with first-time starters at the meet.
Lowells Legacy (PP7) at 5/1 on the original morning line is trained by Jeff Fletcher and ridden by Kevin Gonzalez. Fletcher has been solid at the meet, and this gelding has shown enough to merit respect as one of the more experienced runners in the remaining field.
Secondary Choices
Motown Flattery (PP3) at 8/1 on the original line is trained by Justin Radosevich and ridden by Jose Bracho. The three-post is a favorable draw, and Bracho is a capable veteran rider at Mahoning Valley.
Chasing Orion (PP12) at 20/1 on the original line is trained by Jason DaCosta, a respected conditioner, and ridden by Victor Fernandez. DaCosta’s involvement gives this runner more credibility than the morning line suggests.
Longshots
Markaway (PP11) at 15/1 is trained by Kristina Tumblin and ridden by Jairo Hernandez. In a reduced maiden special weight field, any runner with a pulse has a chance, and the price could offer value.
My Paisan (PP9) at 20/1 for trainer Tina Casalinova with Charle Oliveros aboard is the deepest longshot remaining.
Betting Strategy
This maiden special weight race has been blown wide open by scratches. With the top two morning-line favorites (Rascal Flash and El Canelo One) both scratched, and multiple other withdrawals, the remaining field is extremely competitive and unpredictable. This is the ultimate spread race for exotic bettors. Use Dragon Hunter, Lowells Legacy, and Motown Flattery on top, and spread to Chasing Orion and Markaway underneath in the trifecta and superfecta.
Selections
Win: 10 Dragon Hunter
Place: 7 Lowells Legacy
Show: 3 Motown Flattery
Jockey Notes and Insights
Brandon Tapara has a heavy book today with mounts in Races 1 (Not Yet Charlie), 4 (no mount with Sobieski scratched — correction: on Lesotho in R7 and Boudin in R6), 6 (Boudin), and 7 (Lesotho). He has been riding competitively at the meet and his agent has clearly positioned him on live mounts throughout the card, particularly with Bernardini-trained runners.
Erik Barbaran rides in Races 3 (Bellofthebluegrass), 6 (Game Boy Benny), 8 (Alien Princess), and 9 (Dragon Hunter). He has been a productive rider at the meet and is well positioned on several contenders. His mount on Alien Princess in Race 8 and Dragon Hunter in Race 9 are noteworthy given the trainer connections.
Luis Alberto Batista has solid mounts in Race 1 (via Gold Buckle) and Race 4 (Action Man). The DaCosta-Batista connection in Race 4 with Action Man is worth monitoring.
Jefferson Skerrett continues to ride primarily for the family barn (trainer Jeffrey Skerrett), and his 5-lb apprentice claim provides a meaningful weight advantage in claiming races. He rides Shez Shacked Up in Race 3 (if she runs), Breeze the Bayou in Race 4, So Dialed In in Race 6, and Queenofthebuckeye in Race 8.
Victor Fernandez has a strong book including Greewhiz in Race 4, Wellareyouhappynow in Race 8, and Chasing Orion in Race 9. He has been riding at a competitive percentage this meet.
Chelsey Keiser rides Will E Sutton in Race 1 and Indy’s Hope in Race 5, both of which are featured contenders. Her familiarity with these horses is an asset.
Yuri Yaranga pilots Popstyle in Race 8, the top selection in that race, and Forever Lasting in Race 1. His best chance of the day comes aboard Popstyle.
Fernando Salazar Becerra has key mounts on Lucky Cougar in Race 2 (the top pick) and Kiss Me Quick in Race 8. His ride on Lucky Cougar is the prime mount of his day.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Jay Bernardini is the most prominent trainer on this card with runners in Race 2 (Loaded Once More), Race 3 (A Little Canela), Race 6 (Game Boy Benny and Boudin), and Race 8 (Alien Princess). He has posted 7 wins from 33 starts over the last 21 days, good for a 21% win rate. His runners demand respect in every race, and his Races 3 and 6 entries are both featured selections.
Nestor Rivera matches Bernardini’s 7-win total from 36 starts and has runners in Race 2 (Lucky Cougar) and Race 8 (Kingdom Trails). Lucky Cougar in Race 2 is the morning-line favorite, and Rivera’s current form strongly supports the pick.
Anthony Farrior also has 7 wins from 34 starts and sends out Bellofthebluegrass in Race 3 and Sobieski (scratched) in Race 4. His remaining representative in Race 3 is a legitimate contender.
Jeffrey Skerrett trains several runners ridden by his son Jefferson Skerrett. This family operation is always dangerous at Mahoning Valley’s lower claiming levels. Their entries include Shez Shacked Up (Race 3, scratch watch), Breeze the Bayou (Race 4), So Dialed In (Race 6), and Queenofthebuckeye (Race 8).
Michael J. Maker sends out My Girl Kew in Race 3 and ranks 7th nationally among trainers with $1.59 million in earnings and a strong 18% win rate from 152 starts in 2026. When Maker ships to a regional track like Mahoning Valley, the horse is live.
Jason DaCosta trains Action Man in Race 4 and Chasing Orion in Race 9. Both merit respect from this respected conditioner.
Robert Gorham trains Az We Speak (Race 3), Kiss Me Quick (Race 8), and Rascal Flash (Race 9, scratched). His remaining runners are viable exotics candidates.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The card presents several key angles for profitable wagering:
The Bernardini barn is the engine of this card. With A Little Canela (Race 3), Boudin (Race 6), and Alien Princess (Race 8) all being legitimate contenders, stringing together Bernardini-trained runners in multi-race sequences is a strong approach. The Pick 5, if it begins in Race 5, would allow inclusion of Boudin in Race 6, which is the most bankable Bernardini entry.
Race 7 is a gift for exotic players. With only four runners remaining after three scratches, the payoff opportunities in multi-race wagers passing through this race are excellent. A four-horse field compresses the win pool but creates manageable spread opportunities in Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences that include it.
Race 9 is the ultimate chaos race. With massive scratches removing the top morning-line choices, the remaining field is wide open. This is a mandatory spread race in any multi-race wager. Dragon Hunter, Lowells Legacy, Motown Flattery, and Chasing Orion should all be used.
The rolling Pick 3 from Race 7 through Race 9 is an attractive play: use all four runners in Race 7 (small field), key Popstyle and Alien Princess in Race 8, and spread to Dragon Hunter, Lowells Legacy, and Motown Flattery in Race 9. The total combinations are manageable and the payoff potential is significant given the uncertainty in Races 7 and 9.
Value plays for the day include Alien Princess (Race 8, PP9) at 6/1 with the Bernardini training angle, Cricklewood (Race 5, PP3) at 10/1 with first-time blinkers, and Chasing Orion (Race 9, PP12) at 20/1 with the DaCosta training edge. The morning-line odds will shift dramatically in Races 5, 7, and 9 due to scratches, so watching the tote board for overlays is essential.
For bankroll management, Races 1, 2, 3, and 6 are the most predictable races on the card, with relatively clear contenders at the top. These are suitable for win bets and exactas. Races 5, 7, 8, and 9 are more open and better suited for trifectas, superfectas, and multi-race wager inclusion with wider spreads. The sloppy track condition is the great equalizer: respect horses with demonstrated wet-track form and discount horses whose best form has come exclusively on fast surfaces.
