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Today’s card at Mahoning Valley features 10 races, headlined by a mix of competitive claiming events and allowance contests for Ohio-breds. The program showcases the typical winter grind at the Youngstown oval, where track condition and early speed often dictate the outcomes. The feature race appears to be Race 8, a solid Starter Optional Claiming event at one mile, drawing a field of seasoned veterans including the classy Strava. With a heavy presence of top local connections like trainers Anthony Farrior, Robert Cline, and Jeffrey Radosevich, expect the usual jockey-trainer combinations to take the bulk of the money.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast for Youngstown, OH Expect typical February conditions in the Mahoning Valley. The forecast calls for cold temperatures, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 30s°F (around 1°C). Skies will likely be overcast with a chance of flurries or light snow showers, which is standard for this time of year.
Track Surface The dirt surface at Mahoning Valley during the winter months is often sealed to protect it from moisture. In these freezing temperatures, the track can play “tight” and fast if the moisture content is low, but if there is precipitation, expect a “Good” or “Sloppy” surface that can favor horses with previous off-track form.
- Surface Condition: Likely Fast or Good.
Track Bias Analysis
Sprint Races (5-6 Furlongs) Mahoning Valley generally favors early speed, especially in the winter. The stretch run is relatively short, making it difficult for deep closers to make up ground unless the pace is blistering. Inside posts (1-3) are often advantageous in 6-furlong sprints, as horses can save ground on the turn.
- Bias: Mild Speed Bias (favoring E and E/P types).
Route Races (1 Mile) The one-mile distance involves two turns. Speed still holds well, but the race often sets up for stalkers who can sit just off the pace and make a move on the far turn. The “garden spot” is sitting second or third along the rail. Avoid horses drawn very wide (posts 8+) unless they have enough tactical speed to clear the field before the first turn.
Race 1 – Claiming (5 Furlongs)
Post Time: 12:15 PM
Pace Analysis
At the short 5-furlong distance, the break is critical. Thedayofthegrey possesses ample back class and speed, likely pushing the pace from the outside. El Marro also has shown flashes of early foot. Expect a contested pace which might set up for a stalker, but in a 5-furlong dash, the horse who makes the lead first often holds it.
Key Contenders
Thedayofthegrey (6) This veteran campaigner is a standout on class. Dropping into this claiming level, he fits superior speed figures compared to the field. Trainer Robert Cline has him spotted aggressively here. If he breaks clean, he is the one to catch.
Ilikethat (7) Training under the Timothy Hamm banner, this gelding draws the outside post which is favorable for a stalking trip in a sprint. Hamm is a high-percentage trainer with Ohio-breds, and Rocco Bowen is a top-tier rider at this oval.
Secondary Choices
Into Gold (1) Drawing the rail can be a double-edged sword at 5 furlongs. If he breaks sharply, he can save all the ground. Trainer Joseph Mahan typically places his horses where they can be competitive.
Longshots
El Marro (3) A seasoned 9-year-old who knows the oval well. While his recent form may be spotty, his experience at this distance gives him a chance to hit the board at a price if the pace collapses.
Betting Strategy
Focus on Thedayofthegrey to win. A class drop of this magnitude in an Ohio-bred claiming race is a major angle.
- Wager: Win on 6. Exacta 6-7.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post Time: 12:43 PM
Pace Analysis
Maiden claiming races at the bottom level often feature erratic pace scenarios. Justtakethecannoli draws the rail and may be forced to send. Hero Panther and Hero Queen from the Loudin-Smith barn add intrigue to the pace picture.
Key Contenders
Justtakethecannoli (1) Connections are respectable, and the rail draw allows Renzo Diaz to dictate the trip. In a field void of standout speed, this filly could control the race from the bell.
Daddy’s Lil Chef (5) A 3-year-old facing older mares, which is a significant weight advantage (118 lbs vs 126 lbs). Trainer Kevin Buttigieg often ships ready-to-run types. Angel Diaz is a strong aggressive rider suited for this oval.
Secondary Choices
Ruby River (3) Alexander Chavez aboard is a positive sign. This filly should find the class relief helpful and fits well in the middle of the pack.
Betting Strategy
The weight break for the 3-year-old is compelling.
- Wager: Box 1-5 in Exactas.
Race 3 – Claiming (1 Mile)
Post Time: 01:11 PM
Pace Analysis
Hite and Orville B are likely to show initiative. In these lower-level route claimers, the pace is rarely scorching. A moderate tempo favors horses near the front.
Key Contenders
Orville B (5) Trainer Saul Morales and jockey Luis Batista team up with a horse that has shown consistency at this level. He should sit a perfect stalking trip just off the leaders.
Derby Included (6) Another Robert Cline entrant who fits well here. Brandon Tapara rides; this horse has back class and handles the two-turn distance comfortably.
Secondary Choices
Hite (2) Drawn inside, he will likely save ground. If allowed to set a loose lead, he could steal the race, though he sometimes lacks a finishing kick.
Betting Strategy
Look for Orville B to grind out a victory in the stretch.
- Wager: Win on 5.
Race 4 – Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post Time: 01:39 PM
Pace Analysis
A sprint for fillies and mares. Siofra looks to be one of the primary speed elements. Complexity Girl carrying light weight (119 lbs) might also show early foot.
Key Contenders
Siofra (2) Handicappers have marked this filly as a strong contender. Trainer David Wolochuk is efficient in these spots, and Mauro Cedillo rides. She has the tactical speed to secure a good position early.
Credit Check (8) Trainer Robert Gorham is excellent with Ohio-breds. Drawing the outside post allows jockey Salazar Becerra to watch the break and slide into a stalking position without getting trapped.
Secondary Choices
Razzberry Ripple (5) Consistent type for Saul Morales. Usually in the mix for the exotics (Place/Show) but sometimes finds one or two better.
Betting Strategy
Siofra looks poised to rebound or improve here.
- Wager: Win on 2. Trifecta Key 2 over 5,8.
Race 5 – Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post Time: 02:07 PM
Pace Analysis
A large field of 12 (if no scratches) suggests a chaotic start. J J Valentin has ample speed and draws the middle. Spice Bag on the rail will need to hustle.
Key Contenders
J J Valentin (6) Trained by the powerhouse Jeffrey Radosevich and ridden by Luis Rivera. This is the “deadly duo” of Mahoning Valley. When these connections team up in a claiming race, the horse is almost automatically the one to beat.
Gucci Vision (2) Deshawn Parker is a Hall of Fame caliber rider who excels at saving ground. If the pace heats up, expect him to be closing late.
Secondary Choices
Parade of Fears (5) Trainer Jay Bernardini is another high-percentage conditioner. Erik Barbaran aboard adds confidence. This horse fits the class structure well.
Longshots
Quarantino (11) Drawn wide with an apprentice allowance (119 lbs). If the track is playing to outside closers, he could blow up the tote board.
Betting Strategy
Trust the Radosevich/Rivera combination.
- Wager: Win on 6.
Race 6 – Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post Time: 02:35 PM
Pace Analysis
She’s So Sexy is a naturally quick mare who will likely vie for the lead. Shipshewana also has early foot. The pace should be honest.
Key Contenders
She’s So Sexy (2) The consensus top pick among handicappers for this race. Another Jeffrey Radosevich trainee, she has been in good form and finds a soft spot here. Jose Bracho takes the mount. She looks “well placed” to bounce back.
Fiveminutsofpasion (7) Trainer Eric Reed ships in capable runners. Charle Oliveros is a steady rider. This mare has shown the ability to close and could pick up the pieces if the favorite falters.
Secondary Choices
Shipshewana (1) The rail horse for Robert Gorham. If she breaks well, she is a threat to wire the field, though pressure from the 2 horse is likely.
Lil Sweezey (4) From the Anthony Farrior barn (top trainer). You simply cannot ignore Farrior entries at Mahoning Valley, regardless of recent form.
Betting Strategy
A potential duel between the 1 and 2 could set it up, but She’s So Sexy is the class of the speed.
- Wager: Exacta Box 2-7.
Race 7 – Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post Time: 03:03 PM
Pace Analysis
Stormed Out has speed and the rail. Ghost of Londyn is also quick. This race features experienced Ohio-breds who know how to lean on each other.
Key Contenders
Stormed Out (1) Robert Cline/Salazar Becerra. Drawing the rail gives them the shortest path. If he holds his rail position, he is the primary contender.
Man’s Choice (4) Trainer Richard Zielinski is having a solid meet. This horse is a grinder who often hits the board.
Secondary Choices
Tahlequah Joe (6) A consistent check-earner. Look for him to be running late to fill out the trifecta or superfecta.
Betting Strategy
Stormed Out is the logical play from the inside.
- Wager: Win on 1.
Race 8 – Starter Optional Claiming (1 Mile)
Post Time: 03:31 PM
Pace Analysis
A high-quality field. Strava has tactical speed. Colonel Poppy and Sunset Town can also move early. Expect a strategic pace where position going into the far turn is everything.
Key Contenders
Strava (7) The clear class of the field. Trained by Anthony Farrior, this gelding has competed in significantly tougher company (was once on the Derby trail years ago). He is currently in sharp form and is the consensus favorite. Farrior places him perfectly here.
Sunset Town (6) Listed as a strong contender (7/2 morning line estimate). He has been consistent and fits the speed figures required to challenge the favorite.
Atkins (4) A consistent sort who rarely runs a bad race. A must-use in exotics.
Betting Strategy
Strava is likely the “single” of the day for multi-race wagers.
- Wager: Win on 7. Trifecta 7 over 4,6 over All.
Race 9 – Allowance (1 Mile)
Post Time: 03:59 PM
Pace Analysis
Allowance runners often respect pace more than claimers. Jus Too Fly and The Chalk look like the main protagonists.
Key Contenders
Jus Too Fly (4) Trainer Nestor Rivera and jockey Angel Diaz. This horse has been knocking on the door and the one-mile distance suits his running style.
The Chalk (5) Jeffrey Radosevich/Luis Rivera again. In an allowance race, these connections usually mean business. The horse likely has the best recent speed figures.
Secondary Choices
Handsome Pants (1) Rail draw for Caryn Vecchio. Could save ground and sneak a share.
Betting Strategy
The 4 and 5 standout.
- Wager: Exacta Box 4-5.
Race 10 – Allowance (1 Mile)
Post Time: 04:27 PM
Pace Analysis
Ohio-bred allowance to close the card. Cowgirlsluvme (3yo) gets a huge weight break (116 lbs). Heidi N Seek is a veteran mare who might try to slow it down.
Key Contenders
Cowgirlsluvme (1) The only 3-year-old in the field facing older mares. The 8-10 pound weight advantage is massive at a mile in the winter mud. If she can handle the distance, she could upset the older horses.
Heidi N Seek (4) Experienced mare who has faced tougher company. If she is healthy (note the scratch in Jan), she is a major player on class.
Secondary Choices
Lucky’s Prize (7) Manuel Vlaun trains; Angel Diaz rides. A consistent type who figures to be in the mix for the placings.
Betting Strategy
Take a shot with the young legs of Cowgirlsluvme on the weight spread.
- Wager: Win on 1.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Luis Rivera: The dominant rider at Mahoning Valley. When he rides for Farrior or Radosevich, it is a high-percentage move. He excels at getting horses out of the gate and securing position. Rocco Bowen: A very strong finisher. Watch him on closers or horses that need a strong hand in the stretch. He rides particularly well for Tim Hamm. Fernando Salazar Becerra: Excellent gate rider. Often aggressive early, making him a good choice for sprint races on the rail. Angel Diaz: Known for aggressive rides. He is not afraid to send a horse to the lead and play “catch me if you can.”
Trainer Notes and Insights
Anthony Farrior: The top dog. He wins at a roughly 25-30% clip. His horses are usually spotted perfectly in classes where they can win. If a Farrior horse is dropping in class, it is usually a winning move, not a negative sign. Jeffrey Radosevich: The “King of Ohio” claiming ranks. He has a massive stable and wins in bunches. Be wary of his entries off a claim; they often improve immediately. Robert Cline: A specialist with Ohio-breds. His horses often outrun their odds, especially in state-bred allowance or claiming races. Robert Gorham: Very dangerous with speed horses and 2-year-olds/3-year-olds.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bet of the Day: Race 8: Strava (7). The class advantage is too significant to ignore. He represents the most likely winner on the card.
Best Value Play: Race 10: Cowgirlsluvme (1). The weight allowance for a 3-year-old going a route distance against older mares is a potent angle that is often overlooked by the betting public.
Suggested Pick 4 (Races 5-8):
- Race 5: 6, 2
- Race 6: 2, 7
- Race 7: 1, 4, 6
- Race 8: 7
Selections
Race 1 Win: Thedayofthegrey (6) – 65% confidence Place: Ilikethat (7) – 60% confidence Show: Into Gold (1) – 55% confidence Alternative: El Marro (3) – 30% confidence
Race 2 Win: Justtakethecannoli (1) – 50% confidence Place: Daddy’s Lil Chef (5) – 45% confidence Show: Ruby River (3) – 40% confidence Alternative: Hero Panther (4) – 30% confidence
Race 3 Win: Orville B (5) – 55% confidence Place: Derby Included (6) – 50% confidence Show: Hite (2) – 45% confidence Alternative: Raven Moon (4) – 30% confidence
Race 4 Win: Siofra (2) – 60% confidence Place: Credit Check (8) – 55% confidence Show: Razzberry Ripple (5) – 50% confidence Alternative: Complexity Girl (7) – 35% confidence
Race 5 Win: J J Valentin (6) – 70% confidence Place: Gucci Vision (2) – 60% confidence Show: Parade of Fears (5) – 50% confidence Alternative: Spice Bag (1) – 30% confidence
Race 6 Win: She’s So Sexy (2) – 65% confidence Place: Fiveminutsofpasion (7) – 55% confidence Show: Shipshewana (1) – 50% confidence Alternative: Lil Sweezey (4) – 40% confidence
Race 7 Win: Stormed Out (1) – 55% confidence Place: Man’s Choice (4) – 50% confidence Show: Tahlequah Joe (6) – 45% confidence Alternative: Ghost of Londyn (2) – 35% confidence
Race 8 Win: Strava (7) – 80% confidence Place: Sunset Town (6) – 60% confidence Show: Atkins (4) – 55% confidence Alternative: Colonel Poppy (5) – 40% confidence
Race 9 Win: Jus Too Fly (4) – 55% confidence Place: The Chalk (5) – 50% confidence Show: Handsome Pants (1) – 45% confidence Alternative: Globetrotting (6) – 35% confidence
Race 10 Win: Cowgirlsluvme (1) – 45% confidence Place: Heidi N Seek (4) – 45% confidence Show: Lucky’s Prize (7) – 40% confidence Alternative: Duo (2) – 30% confidence
