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Today’s card at Mountaineer features an eight-race program beginning at 7:00 PM EST. The sequence includes a mix of claiming, starter allowance, and maiden claiming events, primarily on the dirt. The feature races include a Starter Allowance for fillies and mares going a mile in the opener and a 5 1/2-furlong Starter Allowance in Race 6. With a large field size in several races, bettors can expect competitive payouts.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast for Chester, WV:
The forecast for Sunday evening calls for overcast skies and cold conditions. Temperatures will hover around the freezing mark, with a high of 36°F (2°C) and dropping to 30°F (-1°C) by the later races. Winds will be light, around 5-10 mph from the Southwest.
Track Surface:
Given the sustained cold and overcast conditions, expect the dirt track to be Fast but potentially “tight” due to the low temperatures. There is a slight chance of a frozen mix earlier in the day, so monitor the track condition updates; if moisture hits, the track could be sealed.
Track Bias
Dirt Sprints (4.5F – 6F):
Mountaineer generally features a strong early speed bias in dirt sprints. Horses that can clear the field early or sit just off the lead in the “garden spot” tend to perform best. The rail and inside posts (1-6) are statistically advantageous, particularly in 4.5-furlong dashes where the run to the turn is short.
Dirt Routes (1 Mile):
The one-mile distance is fairer but still favors horses with tactical speed. Deep closers often struggle to make up ground unless the pace is exceptionally hot. The short stretch at Mountaineer rewards horses who make their move on the far turn.
Race 1 Analysis
Post Time: 7:00 PM EST
Distance: 1 Mile Dirt
Class: Starter Allowance
Pace Analysis
In this one-mile route for fillies and mares, the pace should be moderate. Curt’s Angel (1) has shown speed in the past and draws the rail, which dictates an aggressive send. Mrs. Macomber (6) also possesses tactical speed and should be involved early from the outside.
Key Contenders
Mrs. Macomber (6): Trained by Eric Reed and ridden by top jockey Charle Oliveros, this mare fits well at this level. Her tactical running style is suited for the one-mile trip at Mountaineer, and Oliveros is excellent at gauging pace in these routes.
Bank Buster (5): A consistent runner who should appreciate the distance. While she can be one-paced, she grinds out efforts and fits on class figures.
Secondary Choices
Curt’s Angel (1): The rail draw is a major advantage here. If she can control the fractions without too much pressure, she could steal this on the front end.
Princess Halime (4): A logical player for the exotics, likely to stalk the pace and make a run late.
Betting Strategy
Focus on the speed/tactical horses. A small Win bet on Mrs. Macomber and an Exacta box using the 1 and 6 looks viable.
Selections
Win: Mrs. Macomber (6)
Place: Curt’s Angel (1)
Show: Bank Buster (5)
Race 2 Analysis
Post Time: 7:25 PM EST
Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Claiming $20,000
Pace Analysis
A competitive sprint with several horses capable of showing early foot. Waterworks (1) from the inside and Maci’s World (5) look to be the primary speed. Dreaming of Hope (9) on the outside may have to rush to get position.
Key Contenders
Dreaming of Hope (9): The combination of trainer Jay Bernardini and jockey Luis Negron is one of the most potent at Mountaineer (often striking at 25%+). Despite the wide post, this mare drops into a realistic spot and has the back class to handle this field.
Maci’s World (5): Ridden by Hall of Famer Deshawn Parker, she should get a perfect stalking trip. Parker is a master at saving ground and timing his move in these sprints.
Secondary Choices
Waterworks (1): Drawn the rail, this mare must go. If the track is playing specifically to inside speed, she becomes a major threat to wire the field.
Kozem (8): Note the “Scratch Watch” history mentioning a recent vet scratch. Proceed with caution, but on best efforts, she fits.
Betting Strategy
The outside post is the only knock on the 9, but the connections are too strong to ignore. Bet #9 to Win.
Selections
Win: Dreaming of Hope (9)
Place: Maci’s World (5)
Show: Waterworks (1)
Race 3 Analysis
Post Time: 7:50 PM EST
Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Allowance Optional Claiming (WV Bred)
Pace Analysis
Flying to Neptune (2) projects as the controlling speed or sitting just off it. In these WV-bred races, class often dictates pace, and the better horses naturally find the front.
Key Contenders
Flying to Neptune (2): Trainer Anthony Farrior is a dominant force in the Mid-Atlantic region. When he ships to Mountaineer or runs his string here, they are meant to win. With Erik Barbaran aboard, this 3-year-old filly looks formidable and should be the one to beat.
Holly Roller (4): A veteran mare with ample experience over this strip. She is consistent and usually finds her way into the trifecta.
Secondary Choices
Pour Me a Drink (3): Has had some recent steward issues (per scratch notes), but if she runs her race, she has the speed figures to compete.
Shotgun Margaret (1): The rail horse could be a factor if she breaks sharply, but she faces tougher speed to her outside.
Betting Strategy
Flying to Neptune looks like a potential single in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: Flying to Neptune (2)
Place: Holly Roller (4)
Show: Pour Me a Drink (3)
Race 4 Analysis
Post Time: 8:15 PM EST
Distance: 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Maiden Claiming $4,000
Pace Analysis
At this ultra-short distance, the break is everything. Smoove Over (1) has the rail and Deshawn Parker—a combination that often results in a wire-to-wire effort in maiden claimers.
Key Contenders
Smoove Over (1): Dropping to the bottom level and getting the top jockey. The 4.5-furlong distance rewards the inside post heavily. She is the clear top pick.
Rosie Ann Rules (3): Trained by Juan Pablo Silva and ridden by Luis Negron. The Silva barn is aggressive, and this mare should show improvement in this spot.
Secondary Choices
Vanilla Cream (5): Another Bernardini entry. She fits well here and should be picking up the pieces if the speed collapses.
Sunset Vibes (2): Has been knocking on the door and draws well inside.
Betting Strategy
A Win bet on Smoove Over. Use 1 and 3 in daily doubles.
Selections
Win: Smoove Over (1)
Place: Rosie Ann Rules (3)
Show: Vanilla Cream (5)
Race 5 Analysis
Post Time: 8:40 PM EST
Distance: 1 Mile Dirt
Class: Claiming $7,500
Pace Analysis
A full field of 10 going a mile. The run to the first turn will be crucial. Round in Circles (2) and Endless Fashion (1) have the inside advantage to save ground.
Key Contenders
Co Heart (7): Trainer Juan Pablo Silva and jockey Luis Negron team up here. This 3-year-old filly likely has more upside than the older mares in the field.
All for Honor (5): Deshawn Parker rides for Alysha Robillard. This mare is a grinder who will be running late.
Secondary Choices
Handle On You (8): Juan Vazquez is a high-percentage trainer. This filly needs to overcome the post but has the talent.
Tango Zulu (10): The outside post is tough at a mile, but she drops in class and could wake up.
Betting Strategy
Box the 7, 5, and 8 in exactas.
Selections
Win: Co Heart (7)
Place: All for Honor (5)
Show: Handle On You (8)
Race 6 Analysis
Post Time: 9:05 PM EST
Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Starter Allowance
Pace Analysis
This is a race loaded with speed. Jester’s Song (9) and Boudin (10) will be pushing the pace. The winner likely sits third or fourth early and pounces.
Key Contenders
Jester’s Song (9): The Anthony Farrior/Erik Barbaran team strikes again. This gelding has back class and should enjoy the cutback or lateral move. Farrior’s win percentage at Mountaineer is historically very high.
Boudin (10): Jay Bernardini trains and Deshawn Parker is listed. If Parker rides here, it’s a huge sign of intent. He has plenty of back class.
Secondary Choices
Thirsty John (2): Draws well inside and should be part of the early pace scenario.
The Doorman (1): Rail draw for trainer Jami Poole. Could sneak into the exotics.
Betting Strategy
Jester’s Song offers the most reliability.
Selections
Win: Jester’s Song (9)
Place: Boudin (10)
Show: Thirsty John (2)
Race 7 Analysis
Post Time: 9:30 PM EST
Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Claiming $20,000
Pace Analysis
Dance Code (2) has blazing speed and will try to take them all the way. Captivated Drama (6) will likely press.
Key Contenders
Chipofftheoldblock (3): An 8-year-old veteran trained by Michael Lauer. Deshawn Parker takes the mount. This horse has seen much tougher company in the past and finds a soft spot here.
Dance Code (2): The speed of the speed. If he clears, he could be gone, but he often faces pressure.
Secondary Choices
Captivated Drama (6): A consistent runner who hits the board often.
Fivefive Six Champ (8): Another Bernardini entrant who fits the class level.
Betting Strategy
Value play on the old class horse Chipofftheoldblock to run down the speed.
Selections
Win: Chipofftheoldblock (3)
Place: Dance Code (2)
Show: Captivated Drama (6)
Race 8 Analysis
Post Time: 9:55 PM EST
Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Claiming $4,000
Pace Analysis
A low-level claiming sprint to close the card. Chaos is possible. Noble Force (1) has speed from the rail.
Key Contenders
Alpha Blue (12): Despite the terrible post (12), this is an Anthony Farrior trainee. In these bottom-level claimers, the superior trainer often overcomes the post. He will likely send hard or drop over.
Beyond the Bend (5): Trained by Eddie Clouston, a perennial leading trainer at MNR. Should get a good trip from the middle gate.
Secondary Choices
Noble Force (1): The rail is the place to be in the nightcap.
El Cardinal (3): Jami Poole trainee who fits on numbers.
Betting Strategy
If Alpha Blue stays near 2-1 or higher, he is the play despite the post. If he is scratched or takes too much money, look to Beyond the Bend.
Selections
Win: Alpha Blue (12)
Place: Beyond the Bend (5)
Show: Noble Force (1)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Deshawn Parker: The “King of Mountaineer” remains the rider to watch, especially on horses dropping in class or trained by top barns like Bernardini or Silva. He excels at saving ground.
Luis Negron: An aggressive gate rider who wins a high percentage of sprints. If he is on a speed horse, expect them to be sent hard.
Charle Oliveros: Very reliable on route horses and stalking types.
Erik Barbaran: The go-to rider for Anthony Farrior. When they team up, win percentages often exceed 30%.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Anthony Farrior: One of the winningest trainers in the country by volume. His shippers to Mountaineer are rarely off the board.
Jay Bernardini: A local powerhouse. Watch for his horses off the claim or dropping in class; they are usually well-spotted.
Juan Pablo Silva: Known for aggressive placement and speed horses. His entries in maiden claimers are particularly dangerous.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bet of the Night: Race 3, #2 Flying to Neptune. The Farrior/Barbaran combination in a restricted WV-bred race looks like the standout of the card.
Best Value Play: Race 7, #3 Chipofftheoldblock. Getting Deshawn Parker on a back-class veteran in a race full of suspect speed types offers great potential at a decent price.
The “Farrior Factor”: In Race 6 (#9 Jester’s Song) and Race 8 (#12 Alpha Blue), blindly betting the Farrior entries is often a profitable strategy at Mountaineer due to his superior stock management.
Pick 4 Ticket (Races 5-8):
Race 5: 5, 7, 8
Race 6: 9, 10
Race 7: 2, 3
Race 8: 1, 5, 12
Cost for $0.50 ticket: $18.00
