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Today’s card at Oaklawn Park features a 10-race program for Sunday, December 14, 2025, highlighted by the $135,000 Astral Spa Overnight Stakes for two-year-old fillies in Race 9. The racing surface is expected to be fast despite cold temperatures, and field sizes are robust, offering excellent betting value.
The “Holiday Meet” is in full swing, and trends from the opening days suggest the track is playing fair but rewarding tactical speed. Horsemen like Steve Asmussen and Cristian Torres are off to quick starts, continuing their dominance from the previous season.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast:
Sunday’s weather in Hot Springs will be clear but unseasonably cold. High temperatures are expected to hover around 37°F to 40°F, with lows dipping near 20°F. Riders and horses will be dealing with brisk winds, making the “real feel” temperature significantly lower.
Track Condition:
Dirt: Fast.
Despite the cold, the lack of recent precipitation means the dirt surface will be tight and fast.
Track Bias:
- Sprints (6 Furlongs): Early speed is consistently dangerous, but the track has not been rail-biased. Winners have been winning from outside paths (3-4 wide) just as often as the rail. Tactical speed—sitting 1-2 lengths off the lead—is the preferred trip.
- Routes (1 Mile): Inside posts (1-3) have a statistical advantage due to the short run to the first turn at the mile distance. Stalkers who can save ground early and tip out for a run on the far turn generally outperform deep closers.
Race 1
Post Time: 12:30 PM CST
Maiden Claiming $12,500 – 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis:
In this lower-level maiden claimer, Major League and Conway show the most consistent early foot. Expect a moderate pace where the lead is contested early, potentially setting it up for a stalker.
Key Contenders
Dawson James (11-1): A value play who takes a significant drop in class. Trainer Thomas Vance has him spotted aggressively, and the addition of blinkers could wake him up.
Gimme a Chance (13-1): Draws the rail and gets top rider Cristian Torres. His speed figures fit well with this group, and the inside draw forces him to be sent early.
Big Bourbon River (13-1): Offers consistency in a field that lacks it. He has shown the ability to pass horses late, which may be a decisive factor if the pace heats up.
Secondary Choices
Conway (4-1): Ron Moquett’s entry has flashed speed but failed to sustain it. The cutback or change in tactics might help, but he is often overbet.
Endue (18-1): A deep closer who would benefit from a pace collapse.
Longshots
Major League (15-1): If he clears the field alone, he could steal it at a price, though he tends to fade in the final furlong.
Betting Strategy
This is a chaotic scramble to start the day. Focus on price horses dropping in class.
Selections
Win: Dawson James
Place: Gimme a Chance
Show: Big Bourbon River
Race 2
Post Time: 12:58 PM CST
Claiming $12,500 – 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis:
Forty Love and Wind Rider project to be the primary speed. Army Hero should sit the perfect stalking trip just behind the first flight.
Key Contenders
Forty Love (9-5): The horse to beat. Dropping to a competitive level and possesses the highest recent speed figures. Ramon Vazquez fits this horse’s running style perfectly.
Army Hero (9-1): A consistent grinder who rarely runs a bad race. He sits a good trip and has strong late pace figures relative to this field.
Secondary Choices
Wind Rider (9-1): Will likely be sent hard from the gate. If he can clear without using too much energy, he is a threat to wire the field.
Mackville (15-1): A solid exotics filler who picks up checks but rarely wins.
Longshots
El Sargento (15-1): Capable of a big effort on his best day, but current form is inconsistent.
Betting Strategy
Forty Love is a likely single in multi-race wagers, but Army Hero offers excellent value for Exacta combinations.
Selections
Win: Forty Love
Place: Army Hero
Show: Wind Rider
Race 3
Post Time: 01:25 PM CST
Maiden Claiming $50,000 – 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis:
A field of two-year-old fillies often results in erratic pace scenarios. Bet the Gray and Rambunctious Rylie have shown the most gate speed in workouts and prior starts.
Key Contenders
Bet the Gray (7-5): The standout. Luis Saez riding for Tom Amoss is a high-percentage angle. She has faced tougher company and lands in a soft spot here.
Amazing Amanda (9-5): Mark Casse trains this filly who gets Cristian Torres. She has been working well and looks ready to fire a big effort off the bench.
Secondary Choices
On Ramp (10-1): Provides value underneath. Has shown flashes of ability that would be competitive here if she can put it all together.
Rambunctious Rylie (10-1): Speed threat who could hang around for a share if left alone on the lead.
Longshots
Famous Pharoah (13-1): Bred to be better than she has shown. A wake-up call at a price is possible.
Betting Strategy
A heavy lean on the top two choices. An Exacta Box of 2-5 is the prudent play.
Selections
Win: Bet the Gray
Place: Amazing Amanda
Show: On Ramp
Race 4
Post Time: 01:55 PM CST
Maiden Special Weight – 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis:
Tiz Authority and Reclamation are the likely pacesetters. This race is loaded with well-bred potential, meaning a fast pace is almost guaranteed.
Key Contenders
D’code (3-1): Cristian Torres aboard. He has been training swiftly and appears to be the most “live” runner in the group based on AM workouts.
Reclamation (3-1): Has shown high cruising speed in the mornings. Vazquez is aggressive and will likely put him in the race early.
Tiz Authority (4-1): Chris Hartman is excellent with debut runners. Expect this one to be well-schooled and professional.
Secondary Choices
Spike the Punch (6-1): A solid alternative if the pace falls apart.
Coming Soon (5-1): Brad Cox / Luis Saez connection demands respect, though the horse may need a race.
Longshots
Mr Fancy Pants (11-1): Norm Casse trainees often improve significantly from start to start. Could crash the exotics at a price.
Betting Strategy
This is a competitive Maiden Special Weight. Spread deep in Pick 4/5 tickets.
Selections
Win: D’code
Place: Reclamation
Show: Tiz Authority
Race 5
Post Time: 02:24 PM CST
Claiming $20,000 – 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis:
Call Sadie and Very Cosmopolitan have ample speed. The pace should be honest, setting up well for a horse that can sit mid-pack.
Key Contenders
Cosmic Chic (12-1): The value play of the race. She has been running against better and finds a group she can handle.
Very Cosmopolitan (5-2): Ron Moquett trainee who fits class-wise. Evin Roman is a strong pilot for this barn.
Tactical Express (23-1): A massive longshot who has numbers that are surprisingly competitive with this field.
Secondary Choices
Mucho Vapor (23-1): Another price horse who could wake up in this spot.
Sassy Lass (4-1): Logical contender on paper but often settles for minor awards.
Longshots
Exquisite Candy (8-1): Has a late kick that could pick up pieces if the leaders tire.
Betting Strategy
A race to take a swing at a price. Cosmic Chic offers great value to Win/Place.
Selections
Win: Cosmic Chic
Place: Very Cosmopolitan
Show: Tactical Express
Race 6
Post Time: 02:53 PM CST
Claiming $10,000 – 1 Mile
Pace Analysis:
Bright Spark is the controlling speed. In a field void of deep talent, the one who makes the lead often keeps it.
Key Contenders
Bright Spark (2-1): The likely winner. Has the best speed figures and pace advantage. If he breaks clean, he may never be headed.
K P Kwest (5-1): The main danger. Francisco Arrieta is excellent at judging pace in routes and will be the one moving first to challenge the leader.
Secondary Choices
Prince Rama (13-1): A veteran who knows how to win. He will be grinding away late.
Texas Holdem (13-1): Check status (Scratch Watch indicated possible change). If he runs, he fits.
Big Commerce (13-1): Consistent check-getter at this level.
Longshots
Campfire Creed (13-1): Has back class that could resurface against this soft company.
Betting Strategy
Bright Spark is a potential single, but K P Kwest is a must-use in horizontal wagers.
Selections
Win: Bright Spark
Place: K P Kwest
Show: Prince Rama
Race 7
Post Time: 03:22 PM CST
Claiming $30,000 – 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis:
Frolic in the Park has serious gas and draws the rail. Wreaking Havoc will likely press from the outside.
Key Contenders
Frolic in the Park (3-1): The speed of the speed. Francisco Arrieta knows how to nurse a lead at Oaklawn. If she breaks, catch her if you can.
Wreaking Havoc (6-1): The primary stalker. Ramon Vazquez will likely sit in the catbird seat and pounce if the favorite falters.
Secondary Choices
Flat Out Rose (8-1): A closer who needs a pace meltdown.
Argan (4-1): Luis Saez is a significant jockey upgrade. Don’t ignore.
Longshots
Delacina (26-1): Massive longshot who would need a complete collapse of the top runners to win, but could fill out a superfecta.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on Frolic in the Park. Exacta box 1-8.
Selections
Win: Frolic in the Park
Place: Wreaking Havoc
Show: Flat Out Rose
Race 8
Post Time: 03:52 PM CST
Starter Allowance – 1 Mile
Pace Analysis:
Alternate Reality and Papa Yo should vie for command. The pace should be moderate, favoring horses near the front.
Key Contenders
Alternate Reality (3-1): Consistent, fast, and classy. He loves the distance and track profile.
Empire Builder (7-2): A hard-knocking veteran who always runs his race. Arrieta fits him well.
Secondary Choices
Strike Ridge (5-1): Check Status (Scratch Watch indicated possible change). If in, he is a major player.
Gewurztraminer (6-1): A steady closer who will be running on late.
Longshots
Dr. Storm (8-1): Good recent form and could sneak into the trifecta at a square price.
Betting Strategy
Exacta Box 8-12.
Selections
Win: Alternate Reality
Place: Empire Builder
Show: Strike Ridge
Race 9
Post Time: 04:20 PM CST
Astral Spa Overnight Stakes – 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis:
Counting Stars and Victory Music are the class of the field and both possess high cruising speed. This will be a fast-run race.
Key Contenders
Counting Stars (5-2): Mark Casse / Arrieta. She has shown stakes-quality ability and should handle this group.
Victory Music (3-1): Maker trainee who rarely ships without intent. Ramon Vazquez aboard is a positive sign.
Secondary Choices
Carolyncaroline (4-1): Consistent and gritty. Will be right there at the wire.
Glazin’ Fury (5-1): Check Status (Scratch Watch indicated possible change). A dangerous speed threat if she runs.
Longshots
Runadhara (15-1): Asmussen entry at a price. Always dangerous in stakes races at Oaklawn.
Betting Strategy
Trifecta Key: Counting Stars over Victory Music/Carolyncaroline/Glazin’ Fury.
Selections
Win: Counting Stars
Place: Victory Music
Show: Carolyncaroline
Race 10
Post Time: 04:47 PM CST
Allowance – 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis:
Filly Crystal and Sweet Music are the likely favorites in the finale. The scratch of #13 and #14 changes the complexion, moving outside runners in.
Key Contenders
Filly Crystal (3-1): Drops into a winnable spot. The one to beat in the nightcap.
Sweet Music (4-1): Has been knocking on the door. Today could be the day.
Secondary Choices
You’ll Be Back (9-2): Bejarano / Amoss. A strong team for the final race.
Liuzza (5-1): Check Status (Scratch Watch indicated possible change).
Longshots
Spring Dancer (12-1): Randy Morse horses often outrun their odds at Oaklawn.
Betting Strategy
Win on Filly Crystal. Daily Double 6-14 (from Race 9).
Selections
Win: Filly Crystal
Place: Sweet Music
Show: You’ll Be Back
Jockey Notes and Insights
- Cristian Torres: The defending co-champion rider is the “go-to” for aggressive rides. He is particularly dangerous on speed horses in sprints. Watch him on Gimme a Chance (R1) and D’code (R4) today.
- Francisco Arrieta: A master of the Oaklawn oval. He excels at saving ground and is deadly on route horses. His ride on Frolic in the Park (R7) and Empire Builder (R8) will be key.
- Luis Saez: A world-class rider visiting for the season. When he rides for top barns like Amoss or Cox, it is a “bet now” signal. Look for him on Bet the Gray (R3).
Trainer Notes and Insights
- Steve Asmussen: The all-time leading trainer at Oaklawn. His entries in maiden races and stakes are always live. He has Runadhara (R9) in the stakes, who could be a sleeper.
- Chris Hartman: Excellent with first-time starters and claiming sprinters. Tiz Authority (R4) is a prime example of a horse he will have ready to fire first out.
- Ron Moquett: The “local” favorite who targets this meet specifically. His horses often improve significantly at Oaklawn compared to other tracks. Watch Conway (R1) and Very Cosmopolitan (R5).
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The “Best Bet” Lock:
Race 2: #4 Forty Love (9-5)
Drops in class, has the speed figures, and gets a top rider. Looks like the safest winner on the card.
The “Value” Play:
Race 5: #6 Cosmic Chic (12-1)
Overlooked in the morning line but fits competitively with this group. A win bet here offers high ROI potential.
The “Exotics” Play:
Race 3: Exacta Box 2-5
Bet the Gray and Amazing Amanda look superior to the rest of the field. Boxing them is a safe way to build a bankroll early.
Pick 4 Ticket (Races 7-10):
Leg 1: 1, 8
Leg 2: 8, 12
Leg 3: 6, 2
Leg 4: 14, 13
Cost for $0.50 play: $8.00
