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Oaklawn Park presents a competitive 10-race card for Sunday, December 21, 2025, with the featured Poinsettia Stakes highlighting the afternoon’s action. The Holiday Meet at Oaklawn continues to deliver quality racing with strong fields and solid betting opportunities across claiming, allowance, and stakes conditions. Track officials report fast track conditions for the dirt surface as the meet progresses through its opening weeks.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather forecast for Hot Springs, Arkansas calls for mostly cloudy skies with a high near 59 degrees Fahrenheit. East winds of 10-15 mph are expected throughout the racing day, which should not significantly impact the racing surface. The overnight low near 51 degrees and lack of precipitation means the dirt track will remain fast, favoring horses with tactical speed.
Track conditions have been consistently fast throughout the early portion of the meet, allowing trainers to establish patterns with their runners. The relatively mild December temperatures represent warmer than average conditions for this time of year, running approximately 15 degrees above historical norms.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Oaklawn Park has demonstrated a notable shift in recent meets regarding post position advantages, particularly in sprint races. Analysis of the 2024-25 meet revealed that outside posts seven and beyond won 40 percent of sprint races at six furlongs, a significant advantage over inside and middle posts which each won 30 percent. This outside bias represents a departure from traditional Oaklawn patterns where inside posts held more favoritism.
The track configuration at one mile utilizes an auxiliary finish line that creates a longer run to the first turn, mitigating inside post bias while potentially favoring the short stretch for horses positioned near the pace. Route races at 1 1/16 miles show more balanced post distribution, with inside posts one through three winning 39 percent of races, middle posts four through six at 33 percent, and outside posts seven and beyond at 27 percent.
Running style analysis indicates no dominant pattern, with early runners, stalkers, and closers all winning between 30-38 percent of races depending on distance. The short stretch run from both the main and auxiliary finish lines tends to favor front-runners and stalkers who can maintain position throughout, while deep closers face challenges making up significant ground in the final furlong.
Race 1: Arkansas-Bred Fillies and Mares Claiming
Post Time
12:30 PM CST
This six-furlong claiming sprint for Arkansas-bred fillies and mares features nine runners competing for a $31,000 purse. The race represents a competitive bottom-level claiming event where class and current form will determine the outcome.
Key Contenders
Summer Shoes emerges as the morning line favorite at 5-2 and draws considerable support from handicappers. The seven-year-old mare trained by Thomas Swearingen brings strong Arkansas-bred credentials with three wins from three starts against state-breds, including front-running victories that showcase her tactical speed. Despite carrying only 114 pounds due to the apprentice allowance for jockey Ronnie Huckaby, Summer Shoes possesses the early speed to establish position from post five and control the pace. Her recent form shows consistency, though she faces a challenging field where several rivals possess similar running styles.
Kitiara rates as a legitimate threat at 7-2 on the morning line. The five-year-old mare for trainer Kevin Martin has demonstrated adaptability in her running style and shows recent competitive efforts. Ramon Vazquez, who maintains an 11 percent win rate and 33 percent in-the-money percentage at the current meet, takes the mount. Kitiara’s mid-pack closing style could prove effective if the early pace becomes contentious.
The Girl in Red offers value at 9-2 for trainer W. Bret Calhoun, who wins at a 22 percent clip with strong in-the-money percentages. The five-year-old mare ships in from Delaware Park showing mixed recent form but possesses the tactical versatility to work out different trip scenarios. David Cabrera rides for a barn that excels at placing horses in favorable spots.
Secondary Choices
Wildwood Queen brings experience with trainer John Haran, showing tactical stalking ability from post four. The four-year-old filly won recently at Hawthorne and possesses enough early speed to stay within striking distance. Walter De La Cruz, who has compiled strong statistics at the meet with a 17 percent win rate, guides the filly.
Ngala for trainer Ron Moquett represents another mid-tier option. The five-year-old mare brings experience but faces challenges with outside post positioning and questionable recent form.
Pace Analysis
The race projects as moderately paced with Summer Shoes and Golden Edge likely showing early speed from the inside. The Girl in Red may apply additional pressure depending on rider tactics. This setup could favor stalkers like Wildwood Queen and closers like Kitiara if the pace becomes too demanding for the leaders. The outside post bias at Oaklawn in sprint races works against several contenders, particularly those drawn inside who lack tactical speed.
Selections
Win: Summer Shoes (#5)
Place: Kitiara (#9)
Show: The Girl in Red (#3)
Race 2: Starter Optional Claiming
Post Time
12:58 PM CST
Eight fillies and mares stretch out to one mile in this $44,000 starter optional claiming event. The race attracts runners with claiming history below $20,000 or those entered for a $30,000 tag, creating an intriguing mix of class levels.
Key Contenders
Windy Walk commands favoritism at 9-5 on the morning line for trainer Christopher Davis and owner Richard Perkins. The four-year-old filly by Munnings upset Grade 1 winners in the Rampart Stakes at Gulfstream Park, demonstrating high-class ability. Her gate-to-wire victory in that stakes event showed tactical speed and determination under pressure. Luis Saez, who maintains a 21 percent win rate at Oaklawn historically, takes the mount. The filly’s breeding suggests she handles one mile effectively, and her tactical speed should allow her to control the pace from post seven.
Our Liberty Belle rates as a legitimate threat despite 2-1 morning line odds. The five-year-old mare for trainer Wayne Potts brings extensive experience with 12 wins from 39 starts and nearly $854,000 in earnings. Francisco Arrieta, the meet’s leading rider with an 18 percent win rate, rides. However, recent form on turf and questions about her best distance create some uncertainty.
Cervaro Della Sala (GB) offers value as a fast-breaking import trained by Anna Meah. The four-year-old filly shows strong recent efforts and tactical speed that could pressure Windy Walk early. Rafael Bejarano, winning at 19 percent during the meet, provides riding strength. The filly drops in class from recent allowance competition and could benefit from the one-mile distance.
Secondary Choices
Up On the Edge for trainer David Jacobson represents a mid-level threat. The four-year-old filly shows tactical versatility with mid-pack stalking ability. Ricardo Santana Jr’s presence adds confidence, though recent form raises questions.
Miranda’s Rocky brings experience but questionable current form. The five-year-old mare shows front-running tendencies that could complement or clash with Windy Walk’s tactical approach.
Pace Analysis
Windy Walk and Cervaro Della Sala likely establish the early fractions, with Miranda’s Rocky potentially applying additional pressure. The one-mile distance uses Oaklawn’s auxiliary finish line, creating a longer run to the first turn that favors outside posts and reduces early speed advantages. The projected honest pace should set up stalkers and closers, though Windy Walk’s class and tactical speed make her difficult to catch if she establishes comfortable fractions.
Betting Strategy
Windy Walk represents solid value despite short odds given her class advantage and recent stakes success. The race sets up favorably for an exacta with Our Liberty Belle and Cervaro Della Sala underneath. Trifecta combinations should include Up On the Edge as a value option in the third position.
Selections
Win: Windy Walk (#7)
Place: Our Liberty Belle (#6)
Show: Cervaro Della Sala (#2)
Race 3: Three-Year-Olds and Up Claiming
Post Time
1:25 PM CST
Ten runners contest this six-furlong claiming sprint for three-year-olds and up who have never won two races. The $33,000 purse attracts a competitive field with varying levels of experience and recent form.
Key Contenders
Solevo emerges as the morning line favorite at 3-1 for Hall of Fame trainer Steven Asmussen. The five-year-old gelding shows tactical closing ability and recent competitive efforts. Erik Asmussen, the trainer’s son and regular rider who maintains a 10 percent win rate at the meet, takes the mount. Solevo’s experience and barn connections suggest readiness for this spot, though he faces challenges making up ground in Oaklawn’s short stretch.
Tapwrits Temper rates as a strong contender at 7-2. The three-year-old colt for trainer Wayne Potts draws favorably in post four and brings tactical versatility. Francisco Arrieta rides, adding significant jockey strength to the equation.
Springtown for Steven Asmussen represents another stable threat at 9-2. The four-year-old colt ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr combines barn power with jockey talent. Recent form suggests competitiveness at this level, though the inside post two draw in a contentious sprint creates tactical challenges.
Secondary Choices
Wind Rider ships in for trainer Chris Hartman with Rafael Bejarano aboard. The four-year-old colt draws the far outside post ten but brings tactical speed and recent competitive form. The outside post bias at Oaklawn in sprints works in his favor.
He Is Heaven Sent shows early speed at 4-1 morning line odds. Ramon Vazquez rides for trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez in a barn showing positive statistics.
Pace Analysis
Multiple horses show early speed intentions, including He Is Heaven Sent, Springtown, and Matt’s Luck. This projects as a contentious early pace that could set up closers like Solevo and Wind Rider. The six-furlong distance favors horses who can maintain position throughout rather than those making late moves given Oaklawn’s short stretch run.
Longshots
Mamoot at 12-1 shows improving form for trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci. The three-year-old gelding demonstrates tactical speed and recent competitive efforts that warrant attention at a price.
Selections
Win: Solevo (#5)
Place: Tapwrits Temper (#4)
Show: Springtown (#2)
Race 4: Claiming Sprint
Post Time
1:55 PM CST
Eleven runners compete in this six-furlong claiming event for three-year-olds and upward. The $31,000 purse attracts horses at the $10,000 claiming level seeking to improve recent form.
Key Contenders
Born Flawless commands favoritism at 5-2 for trainer Jason Cook. The five-year-old gelding brings Luis Saez into the saddle, a significant jockey upgrade that suggests serious intentions from connections. Saez maintains a 21 percent win rate at Oaklawn and adds tactical expertise. Born Flawless shows mid-pack pressing ability and recent competitive efforts at Churchill Downs. The gelding’s tactical versatility allows him to adapt to various pace scenarios.
Rabbit Hound rates as a serious threat at 7-2 on the morning line. The five-year-old gelding for trainer Dan Ward carries only 112 pounds with apprentice Amir Mendoza aboard. Despite the weight advantage, Rabbit Hound possesses mid-pack closing ability that could prove effective if the pace becomes demanding. Recent form suggests competitiveness at this claiming level.
Knicks Story offers value at 5-1. The five-year-old horse for trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez shows tactical speed and recent competitive form. Cristian Torres, who has compiled 62 wins during the meet with a 15 percent strike rate, provides riding strength.
Secondary Choices
J J’s Joker brings experience and trainer Chris Hartman’s strong meet statistics. Rafael Bejarano rides the five-year-old gelding showing mid-pack stalking ability. Recent form at Churchill Downs suggests readiness for this assignment.
Golden Hornet for trainer Genaro Garcia represents another option. The six-year-old gelding with Christopher Elliott aboard shows front-running tendencies that could prove effective if allowed comfortable fractions.
Pace Analysis
Multiple horses possess early speed, including Steel Link, Knicks Story, and Golden Hornet. This projects as a contentious early pace that should favor stalkers and closers. Born Flawless’ tactical versatility allows positioning flexibility, while Rabbit Hound benefits from a demanding pace that sets up his closing kick. The outside post bias in Oaklawn sprints slightly favors those drawn seven and beyond.
Betting Strategy
Born Flawless represents solid value despite favoritism given the jockey upgrade and tactical versatility. The race sets up well for exacta and trifecta combinations using Rabbit Hound and Knicks Story. Longshot inclusion of City of Clouds or Golden Hornet in exotic wagers offers value potential.
Selections
Win: Born Flawless (#6)
Place: Rabbit Hound (#7)
Show: Knicks Story (#9)
Race 5: Maiden Claiming
Post Time
2:24 PM CST
Eleven runners seek maiden graduation in this six-furlong sprint with a $44,000 purse. The claiming price of $40,000 attracts a competitive field of three-year-olds and upward still seeking their first career victory.
Key Contenders
Dawn At Normandy emerges as the morning line favorite at 5-2 for trainer Robert Medina. The four-year-old gelding brings experience with competitive efforts showing improvement. Jane Elliott, who maintains a 12 percent win rate at the meet, takes the mount. Dawn At Normandy’s tactical closing style could prove effective if the pace becomes demanding, though making up ground in Oaklawn’s short stretch presents challenges.
Secret Legend rates as a legitimate threat at 3-1. The three-year-old colt for trainer Robert Cline shows tactical stalking ability with Kelsi Harr aboard. Recent form suggests readiness for this maiden assignment, and the barn’s 4 percent win rate indicates selective placement of runners.
Gun Fire offers value at 5-1 for trainer David Jacobson. The three-year-old gelding draws Ricardo Santana Jr, a significant jockey addition. Jacobson maintains solid statistics at the meet, and Gun Fire’s breeding suggests ability at this level. The tactical speed shown in recent efforts allows positioning flexibility.
Secondary Choices
World Fair for trainer Ron Moquett represents another option. The four-year-old gelding with Evin Roman aboard shows front-running tendencies. Moquett wins at 13 percent during the meet with strong in-the-money percentages.
A Long Time at 8-1 shows potential for trainer H. Ray Ashford Jr, who wins at an impressive 38 percent clip though with limited starts. Alfredo Triana Jr provides riding strength.
Pace Analysis
Several horses show early speed intentions, including World Fair and potentially La Lengua. This projects as a moderately contested pace that could favor stalkers like Secret Legend or closers like Dawn At Normandy. The six-furlong distance demands tactical positioning from the start given Oaklawn’s configuration.
Selections
Win: Dawn At Normandy (#10)
Place: Secret Legend (#2)
Show: Gun Fire (#6)
Race 6: Claiming Sprint
Post Time
2:53 PM CST
Nine runners compete in this six-furlong claiming event for three-year-olds and upward. The $40,000 purse at the $20,000 claiming level attracts experienced runners seeking form improvement.
Key Contenders
I Got No Munny commands favoritism at 7-2 for trainer Tanner Tracy. The eight-year-old gelding brings Tyler Bacon into the saddle, combining a hot rider (13 percent win rate at meet) with a consistent runner. I Got No Munny shows front-running ability that should prove effective from post four. Recent victories at Keeneland demonstrate current form, and the gelding’s experience allows tactical adjustments. Tracy’s 15 percent win rate indicates competent training.
Stage Left rates as a serious threat at 4-1. The nine-year-old gelding for trainer Scott Young brings extensive experience with over $1.1 million in career earnings. Cristian Torres rides, adding jockey strength. Recent form at Remington Park shows competitiveness, and the gelding’s tactical stalking ability works well in contested sprints.
Sir Sterling offers value at 7-2. The five-year-old gelding for trainer Tony Rengstorf shows mid-pack pressing ability with Israel Hernandez aboard. Recent form suggests readiness for this assignment, and the tactical positioning from post nine allows trip flexibility.
Secondary Choices
Aaron for trainer Ingrid Mason represents another option at 5-1. The five-year-old gelding with Ramon Vazquez aboard shows mid-pack stalking tendencies. Recent efforts at Remington Park indicate competitiveness at this level.
Fifty Cent Dollars at 6-1 shows tactical stalking ability for trainer Timothy Martin. Alfredo Triana Jr rides, adding jockey competence.
Pace Analysis
I Got No Munny likely establishes early fractions with potential pressure from Little Steven. The projected honest pace should set up stalkers like Stage Left and closers like Sir Sterling. The six-furlong distance demands early positioning, particularly given Oaklawn’s short stretch run that limits closing opportunities.
Betting Strategy
I Got No Munny represents solid value as the favorite given current form and tactical speed. The race sets up well for exacta combinations with Stage Left and Sir Sterling. Trifecta wagers should include Aaron and Fifty Cent Dollars as value options.
Selections
Win: I Got No Munny (#4)
Place: Stage Left (#1)
Show: Sir Sterling (#9)
Race 7: Three-Year-Olds and Up Claiming
Post Time
3:22 PM CST
Ten runners compete in this six-furlong claiming sprint at the $75,000 level for three-year-olds and upward who have never won two races. The elevated claiming price attracts higher-quality horses still seeking consistency.
Key Contenders
Rowdy Riot emerges as the morning line favorite at 3-1 for trainer Randy Morse. The four-year-old gelding draws Luis Saez, an elite jockey addition that signals serious intentions from connections. Rowdy Riot shows tactical closing ability that could prove effective if the pace becomes demanding. Recent efforts at Churchill Downs indicate competitiveness at this claiming level, though the gelding faces challenges making up ground in Oaklawn’s short stretch.
Camp Evans rates as a serious threat at 7-2. The three-year-old colt for trainer Robert Young shows tactical closing ability with Alfredo Triana Jr aboard. Recent Florida form at Gulfstream Park demonstrates class, and the colt’s breeding suggests ability at this level.
Bob’s Carrot offers value at 4-1 for trainer Eric Foster. The three-year-old colt shows tactical stalking ability that works well in contested sprints. Jaime Torres rides for a barn maintaining 25 percent win statistics. Recent Churchill Downs form shows competitiveness with consistent placing efforts.
Secondary Choices
Ripped for Hall of Fame trainer Steven Asmussen represents another option at 9-2. The three-year-old colt with Erik Asmussen aboard shows tactical speed. The Asmussen barn’s strong meet statistics add confidence despite the gelding’s inconsistent recent form.
Thunderhawk at 6-1 shows closing ability for trainer Peter Eurton. Rafael Bejarano rides, adding jockey strength. Recent efforts suggest competitiveness at this claiming level.
Pace Analysis
Multiple horses show early speed intentions, creating a potentially contentious pace scenario. This setup favors closers like Rowdy Riot and Camp Evans who can capitalize on pace pressure. The six-furlong distance demands tactical positioning from the start, and the outside post bias at Oaklawn in sprints slightly favors those drawn seven and beyond.
Betting Strategy
Rowdy Riot represents value despite favoritism given the elite jockey and tactical closing ability. The race sets up well for exacta combinations with Camp Evans and Bob’s Carrot. Trifecta wagers should include Ripped and Thunderhawk as value options from strong barns.
Selections
Win: Rowdy Riot (#1)
Place: Camp Evans (#9)
Show: Bob’s Carrot (#2)
Race 8: Poinsettia Stakes
Post Time
3:52 PM CST
Six fillies and mares contest the $150,000 Poinsettia Stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt. This featured event of the day showcases established sprinters competing for graded earnings and recognition.
Key Contenders
Hillerito commands favoritism at 6-5 for trainer David Jacobson. The five-year-old mare brings tactical speed that allows her to control the pace from the front. Her recent stakes victory demonstrated high-class ability under pressure, and Ricardo Santana Jr’s presence adds tactical expertise. Hillerito’s consistency and proven stakes credentials make her the horse to beat, though the short 5 1/2-furlong distance demands quick acceleration that could favor pure sprinters.
Benedetta rates as a serious threat at 5-2 for Hall of Fame trainer Steven Asmussen. The four-year-old filly by City of Light brings a four-race winning streak including two recent stakes victories. Erik Asmussen rides, maintaining continuity with the barn’s approach. Benedetta’s tactical versatility and current form suggest she can press or stalk the pace depending on early fractions. The filly’s recent American Beauty Stakes victory demonstrated class, and the slight distance cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs suits her tactical speed.
Jersey Pearl offers value at 7-2 for trainer Darrin Miller. The five-year-old mare with Francisco Arrieta aboard brings the meet’s leading rider and tactical speed that works well in sprint stakes. Recent form suggests competitiveness at this level, and Arrieta’s 18 percent win rate adds confidence.
Secondary Choices
Tapit Quick for trainer Dallas Stewart represents another option at 4-1. The four-year-old filly draws Luis Saez, combining elite jockey talent with tactical ability. Recent stakes placings demonstrate class, though consistency remains a question.
Kant Believe It at 12-1 shows closing ability for trainer James DiVito. Ramon Vazquez rides, and the six-year-old mare’s experience could prove valuable if the pace becomes demanding.
Pace Analysis
Hillerito likely establishes early fractions with potential pressure from Benedetta and Jersey Pearl. The 5 1/2-furlong distance demands quick acceleration from the gate, and the short stretch run at Oaklawn limits closing opportunities. The projected honest pace should test early speed, potentially favoring stalkers who can maintain striking position throughout.
Betting Strategy
Hillerito represents solid value despite short odds given her proven stakes credentials and tactical speed. The race sets up well for exacta combinations with Benedetta and Jersey Pearl. Trifecta wagers should include Tapit Quick as a value option given the elite jockey and recent stakes placings. Longshot inclusion of Kant Believe It offers upset potential if the pace collapses.
Selections
Win: Hillerito (#2)
Place: Benedetta (#4)
Show: Jersey Pearl (#6)
Race 9: Fillies and Mares Allowance
Post Time
4:20 PM CST
Eleven fillies and mares stretch out to 1 1/16 miles in this $115,000 allowance event. The distance and class level attract developing runners seeking to establish credentials at the allowance level.
Key Contenders
L. A. Woman emerges as a strong contender at 2-1 for trainer Brad Cox. The four-year-old filly brings elite barn connections and Luis Saez in the saddle. Cox’s early meet success and Saez’s 21 percent win rate at Oaklawn create a formidable combination. L. A. Woman’s breeding and tactical ability suggest she handles the 1 1/16-mile distance effectively. Recent form indicates readiness for this allowance assignment.
Low Key rates as a serious threat at competitive odds for trainer Thomas Amoss. The three-year-old filly with Ramon Vazquez aboard brings tactical versatility and recent competitive form. The filly’s youth and developing ability suggest improvement potential, and Vazquez’s meet statistics add confidence.
Adogate offers value for Steven Asmussen. The four-year-old filly with Erik Asmussen aboard benefits from strong barn statistics and tactical stalking ability. Recent form suggests competitiveness at this allowance level, and the weight concession of 117 pounds helps positioning.
Secondary Choices
Bang Bang Fury for trainer Donnie Von Hemel represents another option. The four-year-old filly with David Cabrera aboard brings experience and tactical ability that works well in route races.
New Light (CHI) ships in for Brad Cox showing import credentials. The four-year-old filly with Christopher Elliott aboard brings tactical closing ability that could prove effective if the pace becomes demanding.
Pace Analysis
The 1 1/16-mile distance creates opportunity for various pace scenarios. Several horses show tactical versatility, suggesting a moderately paced affair that favors stalkers and closers. The longer distance uses Oaklawn’s configuration favorably, and the reduced post position bias in routes creates more balanced winning opportunities.
Selections
Win: L. A. Woman (#5)
Place: Low Key (#3)
Show: Adogate (#2)
Race 10: Fillies and Mares Allowance
Post Time
4:47 PM CST
Eleven fillies and mares contest this $115,000 allowance event at 1 1/16 miles. The conditions mirror Race 9, creating another competitive route event for developing fillies and mares.
Key Contenders
Gowells Delight commands favoritism at 6-5 for trainer Kenneth McPeek. The three-year-old filly by Practical Joke brings strong credentials and Emmanuel Esquivel in the saddle. McPeek’s 16 percent win rate at Oaklawn and strong in-the-money percentages suggest competent placement. Gowells Delight’s front-running ability allows her to control the pace, and recent form demonstrates class. The filly’s breeding suggests she handles route distances effectively.
Zaghruta rates as a serious threat at 3-1 for trainer Brad Cox. The three-year-old filly by Gun Runner draws Luis Saez, creating a powerful combination of elite barn and elite jockey. Cox’s strong early meet statistics and Saez’s tactical expertise add confidence. Zaghruta brings a three-for-four record in recent starts, demonstrating consistency and class. The filly’s mid-pack pressing style works well in route races where tactical positioning proves crucial.
Crimsonite offers value at 10-1 for Steven Asmussen. The three-year-old filly with Erik Asmussen aboard benefits from strong barn statistics and recent competitive form. The Asmussen operation’s 14 leading trainer titles at Oaklawn demonstrate competence in placing horses appropriately.
Secondary Choices
Kerry’s Kiss for trainer Burl McBride represents another option at 10-1. The three-year-old filly with Ramon Vazquez aboard shows mid-pack pressing ability and recent competitive form at Remington Park.
She’s Not a Joke ships in for trainer Matt Williams with Ricardo Santana Jr aboard. The four-year-old filly brings tactical versatility and recent competitive efforts.
Pace Analysis
Gowells Delight likely establishes early fractions with potential pressure from tactical stalkers. The 1 1/16-mile distance creates opportunity for various trip scenarios, and the reduced post position bias in routes allows more tactical flexibility. The projected moderate pace should favor stalkers like Zaghruta who can maintain striking position throughout.
Betting Strategy
Gowells Delight represents solid value despite short odds given the strong barn statistics and front-running ability. The race sets up well for exacta combinations with Zaghruta, who brings elite connections and proven recent form. Trifecta wagers should include Crimsonite and Kerry’s Kiss as value options from competent barns.
Selections
Win: Gowells Delight (#9)
Place: Zaghruta (#8)
Show: Crimsonite (#11)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Francisco Arrieta leads the current Oaklawn meet with 65 victories and an 18 percent win rate from 367 starts. The journeyman rider returned with new agent Kevin Meyocks and finished the 2024-25 season with remarkable momentum, winning 41 races in the final 23 racing days. Arrieta’s positioning and tactical expertise make him particularly effective on front-running types and stalkers who benefit from accurate early pace judgment.
Cristian Torres ranks second at the meet with 62 wins and a 15 percent strike rate from 425 starts. Torres demonstrates versatility across running styles and excels at finding racing room in traffic. His 42 percent in-the-money percentage indicates consistency that bettors can rely upon throughout the card.
Rafael Bejarano brings elite credentials with 54 wins and a 19 percent win rate from 289 starts. The veteran rider’s tactical expertise and experience make him particularly effective in stakes company and allowance races where subtle positioning decisions prove crucial. Bejarano’s 47 percent in-the-money percentage reflects his ability to consistently place horses in favorable positions.
Ricardo Santana Jr returned to Oaklawn for the winter meet after competing in New York during the summer and fall. The eight-time leading rider at Oaklawn maintains 36 wins with a 12 percent strike rate from 291 starts. Santana’s familiarity with the Oaklawn surface and strong relationships with top barns like Steven Asmussen make him a significant factor when aboard live contenders. His presence often indicates serious intentions from connections.
Luis Saez brings world-class talent with a 21 percent historical win rate at Oaklawn. The 2021 Belmont Stakes winner aboard Essential Quality excels at tactical positioning and demonstrates particular strength in stakes company. Saez’s presence in Race 2 aboard Windy Walk and Race 8 aboard potential Poinsettia contenders signals serious intentions from connections. His experience at major tracks nationwide translates well to Oaklawn’s configuration.
Tyler Bacon maintains a 13 percent win rate with solid consistency throughout the meet. The rider shows particular effectiveness on front-runners and stalkers who benefit from early positioning. Bacon’s recent 200th career win at Oaklawn demonstrates growing experience at the track.
Emmanuel Esquivel compiles a 12 percent win rate with strong in-the-money percentages. The rider demonstrates tactical versatility and shows particular effectiveness for trainer Kenneth McPeek, making his mount aboard Gowells Delight in Race 10 particularly noteworthy.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Steven Asmussen enters the 2025-26 meet seeking his 15th leading trainer title at Oaklawn. The Hall of Fame conditioner has saddled multiple runners throughout today’s card including entries in Races 3, 7, 8, 9, and 10. Asmussen’s operation demonstrates depth with both established stakes horses like Benedetta and developing types in claiming and allowance company. His sons Erik and Keith Asmussen frequently ride for the barn, maintaining family continuity and tactical familiarity.
Brad Cox brings elite credentials with strong early meet performance. The two-time Eclipse Award winning trainer excels at placing horses in favorable spots and demonstrates particular strength in allowance and stakes company. Cox’s entries in Races 9 and 10, including L. A. Woman and Zaghruta, represent serious threats given the barn’s strong statistics and elite jockey connections. Cox identified Oaklawn in 2009 as crucial to building momentum through claiming races and has since established himself as a perennial contender for training titles.
David Jacobson maintains active participation at the meet with solid statistics. The trainer/co-owner brings Hillerito to the featured Poinsettia Stakes after recent stakes success in the Oaklawn Mile. Jacobson’s hands-on approach and selective placement create value when his horses appear in favorable spots.
Ron Moquett compiles a 13 percent win rate with strong in-the-money percentages. The Arkansas-based trainer demonstrates particular effectiveness with state-bred runners and shows tactical versatility across various race types.
Kenneth McPeek brings national credentials with a 16 percent meet win rate and strong in-the-money statistics. The Kentucky-based trainer shows particular effectiveness with developing fillies and demonstrates skill at placing horses appropriately for progression through the allowance ranks. His entry of Gowells Delight in Race 10 represents a serious threat given the filly’s proven credentials and the barn’s strong statistics.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The outside post bias in Oaklawn sprint races creates specific value opportunities throughout the card. Races 1, 3, 4, 6, and 7 all feature six-furlong sprints where posts seven and beyond historically win 40 percent of races. Bettors should weight outside posts more heavily in exacta and trifecta wagers, particularly when those horses possess tactical speed or stalking ability.
Route races at one mile and 1 1/16 miles show more balanced post distribution, with inside posts demonstrating slight advantages. Races 2, 9, and 10 feature route distances where tactical positioning and rider skill prove more crucial than post position. These races favor exacta and trifecta combinations using multiple posts rather than emphasizing outside runners.
Elite jockey and trainer combinations warrant extra consideration throughout the card. Luis Saez aboard Windy Walk in Race 2 represents significant value given the filly’s proven stakes credentials and the rider’s 21 percent Oaklawn win rate. Brad Cox entries in Races 9 and 10 deserve serious consideration given the barn’s early meet success and elite jockey connections.
The featured Poinsettia Stakes in Race 8 offers exotic wagering opportunities beyond traditional win/place/show betting. While Hillerito commands favoritism, the competitive field creates value in exacta and trifecta combinations. Keying Hillerito over Benedetta, Jersey Pearl, and Tapit Quick in exactas provides solid value given the elite connections throughout the field.
Multi-race wagers like Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 5 sequences offer value opportunities by combining solid favorites with strategic longshots. The early Pick 3 covering Races 1-2-3 allows bettors to key strong favorites like Windy Walk in Race 2 while spreading in the surrounding races. The late Pick 4 covering Races 7-8-9-10 creates opportunities to maximize value around the featured Poinsettia Stakes.
Daily double wagers connecting Race 8 (Poinsettia Stakes) with Race 9 or 10 offer strategic value. Keying Hillerito in Race 8 with Brad Cox entries L. A. Woman and Zaghruta in the subsequent allowance races creates attractive odds combinations given the elite connections involved.
Single-race exotic wagers should emphasize horses with tactical versatility who can adapt to various pace scenarios. Oaklawn’s short stretch run limits deep-closing opportunities, making stalkers and mid-pack pressers particularly valuable in trifecta combinations. Horses showing front-running or stalking ability from outside posts represent the strongest exotic wagering propositions in sprint races.
Across the entire card, bettors should prioritize horses trained by Steven Asmussen, Brad Cox, Kenneth McPeek, and David Jacobson who demonstrate strong meet statistics and selective placement. Elite jockeys including Francisco Arrieta, Rafael Bejarano, Luis Saez, and Ricardo Santana Jr add significant value when aboard live contenders, particularly in stakes and allowance company where subtle tactical decisions prove crucial.
