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Oaklawn Park returns to action on Friday, December 26, 2025, with a competitive 10-race card highlighted by the $150,000 Pippin Stakes for fillies and mares. First post is 12:30 PM CST. The day-after-Christmas card arrives with ideal racing conditions as the track continues its holiday meet, showcasing competitive fields across claiming, allowance, and stakes competition.
The racing surface has been consistently fast during the early weeks of the meet, with recent results showing the track playing true to form without significant maintenance-related biases. Oaklawn stewards have been diligent with scratches, removing horses for various reasons including veterinary concerns and trainer decisions, ensuring competitive and fair racing[scratch list provided].
Weather and Track Conditions
Perfect weather conditions are forecast for Hot Springs, Arkansas, on December 26. Temperatures will reach a high near 76 degrees Fahrenheit under partly sunny skies, with southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph. These unseasonably warm conditions are running approximately 15 degrees above historical averages for late December, providing ideal racing weather with no precipitation expected.
The main dirt track is expected to be listed as fast. Recent results from December 19-21 confirmed fast track conditions with no weather-related biases. The temperate conditions and dry forecast ensure the racing surface will provide consistent footing throughout the afternoon, allowing horses to show their true ability without weather-related variables affecting outcomes.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Oaklawn Park has demonstrated distinct patterns during the 2024-25 meet that handicappers should consider when evaluating races on December 26. The track configuration features a one-mile dirt oval with an auxiliary finish line at the sixteenth pole that accommodates mile races with a fair run to the first turn.
Sprint Races (6 Furlongs)
Outside post positions have dominated six-furlong races during the current meet. Horses breaking from posts seven and beyond won approximately 40% of sprint races, while inside posts 1-3 captured 30% and middle posts 4-6 also won 30%. This represents a significant shift from traditional inside speed advantages and reflects the sweeping turns and long stretch that allow outside runners to avoid early congestion.
Running style preferences in sprints favor early speed and stalkers nearly equally. Speedsters on or close to the lead won 40% of sprint races, while stalkers won 38%. Closers coming from four or more lengths off the pace face significant disadvantages, winning only 22% of sprints. The short stretch run to the finish line at Oaklawn limits the effectiveness of deep closers in sprint distances.
Route Races (1 Mile and 1 1/16 Miles)
Route races present a more balanced post position profile. At the commonly run distance of 1 1/16 miles, posts 1-3 won 39% of races (60 of 153), middle posts 4-6 won 33% (51 races), and outside posts captured 28% (42 races). The longer distance allows horses to establish position without the immediate pressure that exists in sprints.
Mile races utilizing the auxiliary finish line show a stronger inside bias. Posts 1-3 won 40% of mile races, middle posts 4-6 won 36%, and outside posts won only 24%. The configuration creates a shorter run to the finish, making positioning crucial and favoring horses that can secure early tactical advantage.
Stalkers excel in route races, winning approximately 40% of races at both one mile and 1 1/16 miles. Early speed remains effective with a 36-42% win rate, while closers face challenges with success rates around 20-25%.
Field Size Considerations
In smaller fields of seven or fewer runners, early speed becomes even more potent. Front-runners won 45% of sprints and 40% of routes with reduced field sizes. Favorites paradoxically underperformed in small-field routes, winning only 23-26% despite often being heavily bet. This creates potential value opportunities when backing against chalk in abbreviated route fields.
Race 1 – Claiming
Post Time: 12:30 PM CST
6 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $45,000
Fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won three races. Claiming price $30,000, with $25,000 entries allowed 2 pounds.
Pace Analysis
This appears to be a moderate pace scenario with several fillies possessing early speed. Taker Back, Sweet Music, and potentially Tartaria will contest the early lead, which should set up an honest but not suicidal pace. The outside post positions (8-10) have statistical advantages in Oaklawn sprints, favoring Well Aware and My Bossy Lady from their draws.
Key Contenders
My Bossy Lady (Post 10) emerges as the top selection based on multiple factors. The three-year-old filly has won two of her last three starts and draws the far outside post, which aligns perfectly with the 40% win rate for posts seven and beyond in Oaklawn sprints. Trainer John Ortiz has been making steady progress with claiming stock, and jockey Johan Rosado provides competent handling. The class level appears suitable, and the weight allowance to 118 pounds provides additional advantage.
Sweet Music (Post 2) represents significant class relief after facing tougher competition. The three-year-old filly by Maclean's Music drops from allowance company where she was overmatched. She has tactical speed and should secure good position under Abel Cedillo. Trainer Joel Berndt has been patient developing this filly, and the drop in class could trigger a breakthrough effort. Her four-race win record suggests she has the ability when properly placed.
Secondary Choices
Tartaria (Post 5) brings trainer Thomas Amoss and jockey Ramon Vazquez, a potent combination at Oaklawn. Vazquez ranks fifth in the current jockey standings with 40 wins and an 11% strike rate. The filly's breeding suggests she should appreciate the sprint distance, and Amoss has been successful placing horses at appropriate levels. The 122-pound impost reflects her class, but she fits with this group on ability.
Taker Back (Post 1) from the William Martin barn offers speed from the rail, which can be effective if she avoids traffic issues. However, the inside posts have underperformed in sprints this meet at only 30% collectively.
Longshots
Well Aware (Post 9) at morning line odds of 12-1 presents intriguing value. Trainer Chris Hartman maintains a 38% win rate at Oaklawn, and jockey Tyler Bacon ranks fourth in current standings with 49 wins. The outside post position aligns with track bias, and the allowance weight of 122 pounds suggests connections believe she belongs at this level.
Betting Strategy
The outside posts dominate the contenders, which is consistent with the sprint bias at Oaklawn. Consider exacta combinations using 10-2-5 with 9-7 underneath. A trifecta box of 10-2-5-9 covers the top outside runners. For budget players, a straight win bet on My Bossy Lady offers solid value if she approaches her 3-1 morning line.
Selections
Win: My Bossy Lady (10)
Place: Sweet Music (2)
Show: Tartaria (5)
Race 2 – Claiming
Post Time: 12:58 PM CST
1 1/16 Miles Dirt – Purse $32,000
Three years old and upward which have not won two races since July 26. Claiming price $12,500.
Pace Analysis
This wide-open claiming route features 14 horses, creating a complex pace scenario. Sound of Victory, Critical Threat, and Apollo Rising appear to possess the most early speed. With the large field, positioning will be critical through the first turn. The race sets up favorably for stalkers and horses with tactical speed who can avoid the initial scramble.
Key Contenders
Critical Threat (Post 2) represents an intriguing price play in this competitive field. The seven-year-old gelding won at the $16,000 claiming level at Keeneland two starts back on a sloppy surface, demonstrating he can win at this class. While he struggles on fast tracks, his summer races at Ellis Park showed strong form that translates well to this reduced claiming level. Trainer Tanner Tracy has a 14% win rate, and Tyler Bacon (49 wins, 13%) provides strong riding. The inside post could be problematic, but Bacon's tactical skill should overcome this disadvantage.
Apollo Rising (Post 12) draws the far outside in the large field but brings Ramon Vazquez, who excels from difficult posts. The six-year-old gelding is a proven winner at this level and should benefit from the honest pace. Trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez is relatively new to Oaklawn but has this horse competitive.
Secondary Choices
Sound of Victory (Post 1) ships from Steven Asmussen's powerful barn with son Erik Asmussen aboard. The Asmussen family had a productive weekend recently, with Erik showing excellent form. Breaking from the rail in a route typically plays to a 40% win rate for posts 1-3 at this distance. However, his last race showed limited enthusiasm, which raises questions about his current form.
Winter's Ghost (Post 11) comes from trainer Wayne Potts, who is 2-for-2 at the meet with a 50% win rate. The six-year-old gelding recently won at Oaklawn at 1 1/16 miles and should appreciate returning to the same distance. Francisco Arrieta, the current leading rider with 65 wins and 18% strike rate, takes the mount.
Longshots
Bolt At Midnight (Post 6) from Chris Hartman's barn (38% win rate) offers value potential. Rafael Bejarano rides, and this combination has been effective. The gelding gets class relief and could benefit from a forward move second off the layoff.
Betting Strategy
With 14 horses, exotic wagers provide the best value opportunities. Structure trifectas using 2-12-11 over 1-6-7 in all positions. Consider a pick three beginning this race connecting to the next two races, as the sequence offers potential for solid payoffs with logical horses.
Selections
Win: Critical Threat (2)
Place: Apollo Rising (12)
Show: Winter's Ghost (11)
Race 3 – Claiming
Post Time: 1:25 PM CST
6 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $32,000
Fillies and mares three years old and upward. Claiming price $12,500.
Pace Analysis
This nine-horse sprint should develop moderate early fractions. Collected Glory and Dixie Penny figure to contest the early lead, with several other fillies in close attendance. The pace scenario favors fillies that can stalk the early leaders and make a sustained bid in the stretch.
Key Contenders
Iuka Miss (Post 4) represents the most logical choice in this competitive claiming sprint. Trainer Ingrid Mason has demonstrated skill with new acquisitions and currently maintains a 17% win rate with 45% in-the-money percentage. Ramon Vazquez provides the riding, and this jockey-trainer combination has been productive. The filly showed improvement in recent starts and gets class relief after struggling at higher levels. Mason's patient approach suggests this filly is ready for a winning effort.
Collected Glory (Post 6) ships from Prairie Meadows where she found success. The five-year-old mare has tactical speed and should secure good position from the middle of the field. Cristian Torres rides, and while he ranks second in the current standings with 62 wins, his 15% strike rate suggests he doesn't match the elite riders on the grounds. The mare's recent form shows consistency if not brilliance.
Secondary Choices
Dixie Penny (Post 9) brings Francisco Arrieta, the meet's leading rider, from the far outside post. At 3-1 morning line odds, she figures prominently if the pace collapses. The seven-year-old mare has compiled solid earnings of over $300,000 and knows how to win. Her running style suits the likely pace scenario.
First Hill (Post 5) gets apprentice Ronnie Huckaby's weight allowance, reducing her impost to 112 pounds. She represents class relief after a distant finish in opening weekend allowance company. Trainer John Haran maintains a solid stable and could have this mare ready for a forward move.
Betting Strategy
This race offers value opportunities given the competitive nature of the field. Box the top four selections in exactas and trifectas, emphasizing 4-6-9. Consider daily double wheels using these three into multiple horses in Race 4, where the maiden special weight appears more predictable.
Selections
Win: Iuka Miss (4)
Place: Collected Glory (6)
Show: Dixie Penny (9)
Race 4 – Maiden Special Weight
Post Time: 1:55 PM CST
1 Mile Dirt – Purse $100,000
Maidens three years old and upward.
Pace Analysis
This represents one of the more intriguing maiden races on the card, featuring several well-bred horses with pedigrees suggesting improvement at classic distances. Nu What's New and Publisher appear most likely to contest the early pace, though neither is a confirmed front-runner. The mile distance with the auxiliary finish line creates a shorter stretch run, favoring horses that can secure tactical position entering the final turn.
Key Contenders
Publisher (Post 5) stands out as the most likely winner based on recent performance and connections. The American Pharoah colt from Steven Asmussen's barn finished a game second in a stronger maiden special weight at 1 1/16 miles in his most recent start. That effort demonstrated his ability to handle two turns and showed improvement from earlier sprint efforts. Erik Asmussen takes the mount, continuing the hot streak for the father-son combination. The colt cost $750,000 as a yearling and possesses the pedigree to excel at this distance. While his overall record shows three runner-up finishes without a victory, the step up to a mile should suit his running style.
Nu What's New (Post 2) brings elite rider Luis Saez from James DiVito's barn. The Munnings colt has been knocking on the door with multiple placings in maiden races. DiVito maintains excellent form, and Saez ranks among the nation's leading riders with exceptional winning percentages. The inside post could prove problematic in the 10-horse field, but Saez's tactical skill should overcome this obstacle. The colt's recent workouts suggest he's ready for a breakthrough performance.
Secondary Choices
Magical Wish (Post 1) represents Kenneth McPeek, who sports a remarkable 31% win rate at Oaklawn. The Broken Vow colt draws the rail, which historically produces 40% of winners in mile races at Oaklawn. Emmanuel Esquivel rides for the powerful McPeek barn, which won both the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks in 2024. Any McPeek runner deserves respect given the trainer's ability to have horses ready for peak performances.
Globalist (Post 3) returns from a stewards' scratch on December 10 for Steven Asmussen. The Global Campaign colt finished second in his most recent start and shows steady improvement. Johan Rosado takes the mount for the powerful Asmussen operation.
Longshots
Barker (Post 8) from trainer Christopher Davis offers value at 12-1 morning line odds. Ramon Vazquez rides, and the gelding's pedigree by Blame suggests he should appreciate the route distance. First-time starters from established trainers can surprise in maiden races when properly prepared.
Betting Strategy
This race provides an excellent foundation for pick three and pick four sequences. Use Publisher and Nu What's New as singles or short keys. Consider exacta boxes with these two horses combined with Magical Wish and Globalist. For budget players, a win bet on Publisher offers solid value given his demonstrated class and connections.
Selections
Win: Publisher (5)
Place: Nu What's New (2)
Show: Magical Wish (1)
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming
Post Time: 2:24 PM CST
6 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $55,000
Arkansas-bred maidens, two years old. Claiming price $50,000.
Pace Analysis
This Arkansas-bred juvenile maiden claimer features 12 two-year-olds making their Oaklawn debuts or returning after earlier efforts. Igniting Embers and Midnight Whirl appear to possess the most natural speed. The claiming price of $50,000 is relatively high for this condition, suggesting these are better-bred Arkansas juveniles. The race should develop honest early fractions with several speed horses ensuring legitimate pace.
Key Contenders
Igniting Embers (Post 4) emerges as the most logical selection based on the morning line and connections. Trainer Tony Rengstorf has this gelding positioned appropriately, and jockey Kelsi Harr provides capable handling. The post position in the middle of the large field allows tactical flexibility, and the gelding's recent workouts suggest readiness. At 6-1 morning line odds, he offers value if his training indicates improvement.
Midnight Whirl (Post 8) represents trainer Randy Morse with Rafael Bejarano aboard. Bejarano ranks third in current standings with 54 wins and a strong 19% win rate. The outside post position aligns with the sprint bias favoring posts 7 and beyond. The gelding has been working steadily for his debut, and Morse's patience suggests the juvenile is ready.
Secondary Choices
Arkansas Dave (Post 6) brings trainer John Haran and jockey Alfredo Triana Jr. The gelding was scratched as an also-eligible from an earlier race, suggesting connections are confident he belongs at this level. The breeding and workouts indicate ability, and the middle post position provides options.
Huckaby (Post 10) runs for Ron Moquett, a respected Arkansas-based trainer. Evin Roman rides, and the outside post could prove advantageous. Moquett has limited starts at the current meet (1 win from 18) but remains a dangerous trainer when he finds the right spot.
Betting Strategy
Arkansas-bred races can produce surprising results as local connections understand the state-bred population better than national handicappers. Consider spreading in exotic wagers using the top four selections. Daily double and pick three wagers using multiple horses offer better value than straight win bets in this unpredictable event.
Selections
Win: Igniting Embers (4)
Place: Midnight Whirl (8)
Show: Arkansas Dave (6)
Race 6 – Starter Allowance
Post Time: 2:53 PM CST
6 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $38,000
Three years old and upward which have started for claiming price $12,500 or less in 2023-2025.
Pace Analysis
This starter allowance sprint features several proven speedsters. Raymond dominated at this distance throughout the 2024-25 Oaklawn meet, winning four straight races from January through April at six furlongs before trying stakes company. Turn Up the Trees also possesses tactical speed and should be forwardly placed. The pace figures to be contested but honest, setting up potential for a presser to strike in deep stretch.
Key Contenders
Raymond (Post 9) represents the class of this field based on his remarkable record at Oaklawn. The six-year-old gelding ripped off four consecutive victories on this oval at exactly this distance from January to April, dominating the starter allowance ranks. Trainer Tim Martin has him returning after a brief freshening, and Tyler Bacon provides the riding. Bacon ranks fourth among current riders with 49 wins and should have Raymond positioned perfectly from the outside post. The gelding's local dominance makes him extremely difficult to oppose despite coming off a layoff.
Turn Up the Trees (Post 6) brings elite jockey Luis Saez, one of the nation's leading riders. Trainer David Jacobson maintains solid statistics, and this four-year-old gelding won impressively two starts back before a defeat last time. Saez's presence suggests strong confidence from connections. The gelding's tactical speed allows him to be close throughout, and Saez excels at timing his moves in allowance sprints.
Secondary Choices
Caramel Chip (Post 2) represents seven-year-old consistency from Mertkan Kantarmaci's barn. While his recent form doesn't match his earlier years when he won 10 of 34 starts, he finished in the back half against tougher competition at Churchill Downs last out. The class relief could trigger renewed effort, and Cristian Torres provides capable handling from the inside post.
Wind of Change (Post 3) is an 11-year-old Brazilian-bred gelding who won this race previously. Ramon Vazquez rides for trainer Michael Hewitt. While age is a concern, his experience at Oaklawn and proven ability at this level keep him competitive.
Betting Strategy
This race offers potential for solid payouts if Raymond's layoff creates doubt in the betting public's mind. If he drifts beyond 7-2, a win bet provides excellent value. Structure exactas using 9 and 6 on top of each other with 2-3 underneath. Consider this race as the middle leg of pick three sequences, as both Raymond and Turn Up the Trees offer legitimate winning chances.
Selections
Win: Raymond (9)
Place: Turn Up the Trees (6)
Show: Caramel Chip (2)
Race 7 – Claiming
Post Time: 3:22 PM CST
1 Mile Dirt – Purse $62,000
Three years old and upward. Claiming price $40,000.
Pace Analysis
This competitive claiming route features 13 horses, creating a complex pace scenario. Sara's Shaman and Onthestage from Steven Asmussen's barn figure to press the early pace, while several other horses will be forwardly placed. The large field and claiming price level suggest this will be a genuine test of class and stamina. The mile distance with the shorter stretch run favors horses positioned within striking distance entering the final turn.
Key Contenders
Sara's Shaman (Post 6) emerges as a strong selection in this contentious race. The five-year-old horse by Shaman Ghost has compiled solid form and finished in the exacta as the beaten favorite last time. Trainer Robert Young Jr. has been patient developing this runner, and Alfredo Triana Jr. takes the mount. The middle post position provides tactical options, and the horse's running style suits the expected pace scenario. His consistency makes him a logical choice in a race where several horses have question marks.
Creative Minister (Post 2) represents trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez with Ramon Vazquez aboard. The six-year-old gelding shows strong course and distance form, with multiple wins at Oaklawn at this exact configuration. Vazquez ranks fifth in current standings and excels with older claiming stock. The inside post could be problematic in the 13-horse field, but the gelding's tactical speed should secure good position. The morning line of 4-1 offers value if he runs to his best form.
Secondary Choices
Underhill's Tab (Post 1) ships from Chris Hartman's barn, which maintains an excellent 38% win rate at Oaklawn. Tyler Bacon rides, and this jockey-trainer combination has been effective throughout the meet. Drawing the rail is less concerning in routes where it produces 40% of winners.
Hern (Post 4) from Cipriano Contreras' barn with Emmanuel Esquivel riding offers value at 5-1 morning line. The gelding has shown ability at this level and could benefit from the expected pace scenario.
Longshots
Unload (Post 7) brings Luis Saez from Michael Maker's powerful barn. Saez's presence alone warrants attention, and Maker maintains a 17% win rate. At 8-1 morning line odds, this represents potential value if the pace sets up favorably for his closing kick.
Betting Strategy
The large field creates opportunity for lucrative exotic payoffs. Box Creative Minister, Sara's Shaman, and Underhill's Tab in exactas and trifectas, adding Unload and Hern for wider coverage. Consider pick three and pick four wagers using multiple horses in this contentious race while singling stronger horses in the Pippin Stakes.
Selections
Win: Sara's Shaman (6)
Place: Creative Minister (2)
Show: Underhill's Tab (1)
Race 8 – Pippin Stakes
Post Time: 3:52 PM CST
1 1/16 Miles Dirt – Purse $150,000
Fillies and mares three years old and upward.
Pace Analysis
The feature Pippin Stakes drew a compact field of six fillies and mares, ensuring a quality contest. Standoutsensation likely will be forwardly placed from her rail draw, while Queen Azteca may show early speed from post 2. The pace should be moderate and controlled, which typically favors the higher-class fillies who can sustain their runs through the stretch.
Key Contenders
Standoutsensation (Post 6) rates as the morning line favorite at 9-5 based on her recent scratching from the Falls City Stakes at Churchill Downs. The four-year-old filly trained by Thomas Amoss with Luis Saez aboard represents the highest class in this field. Amoss ranks as one of the nation's leading trainers, and Saez is among the elite riders in North America. The decision to bypass the graded stakes at Churchill to wait for this spot suggests strong confidence from connections. Saez's presence indicates this filly is meant to win, not just collect a check.
Corningstone (Post 3) seeks to become an Indiana-bred millionaire by winning this race for the second consecutive year. The five-year-old mare won this event in January 2025 and returns with jockey Joseph Bealmear seeking to make Indiana-bred history. Trainer Kenneth McPeek's 31% win rate at Oaklawn demands respect. The mare's experience in this race and proven ability at the distance make her dangerous. McPeek's remarkable 2024 campaign, which included sweeping the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks, demonstrates his ability to have horses peaking for major targets.
Secondary Choices
Peignoir (Post 4) represents Rodolphe Brisset with Cristian Torres riding. The four-year-old filly has been competitive in allowance company and could benefit from the honest pace. Torres ranks second in current standings, though his 15% win rate trails the elite riders.
In Just My Heels (Post 1) runs for Ron Moquett, an accomplished Arkansas-based trainer. However, she cannot use Lasix in this stakes race, which significantly impacts her chances based on her historical form with and without the medication. Her non-Lasix races show considerably diminished performance, making her difficult to support despite drawing the advantageous rail position.
Betting Strategy
This race provides an excellent opportunity for exotic wagers given the short field and clear class distinctions. Use Standoutsensation and Corningstone in exacta boxes, adding Peignoir for trifecta coverage. For win bettors, Standoutsensation offers solid value if she approaches 2-1. Consider using this race as a single in pick three and pick four wagers, as the class edge appears significant.
Selections
Win: Standoutsensation (6)
Place: Corningstone (3)
Show: Peignoir (4)
Race 9 – Allowance
Post Time: 4:20 PM CST
6 Furlongs Dirt – Purse $116,000
Three years old and upward which have never won three races.
Pace Analysis
This competitive allowance sprint features 11 horses with various running styles. Speed King from Ron Moquett's barn possesses tactical speed and should be forwardly placed. Coach Jimi D also shows early pace, while several others will be positioned close to the early leaders. The pace scenario appears honest, which should set up a competitive stretch drive.
Key Contenders
Speed King (Post 3) represents Ron Moquett with Luis Saez riding, a combination that signals serious intent. The three-year-old colt won the Southwest Stakes impressively but disappointed in subsequent graded stakes, including the Arkansas Derby. Dropping back to allowance company after facing the best of his generation provides significant class relief. Saez's presence indicates Moquett believes the colt is ready to return to winning form. The inside post in a sprint can be problematic, but Saez's tactical brilliance should overcome this disadvantage. Morning line favoritism reflects his obvious class edge.
Coach Jimi D (Post 7) brings James DiVito, who maintains strong form at the meet. The four-year-old colt won an allowance at Oaklawn in April, defeating quality competition. Johan Rosado takes the mount, and the outside post position aligns with the sprint bias favoring posts 7 and beyond. DiVito's success rate and the colt's proven ability at Oaklawn make him a serious threat to the favorite.
Secondary Choices
Suncroft (Post 6) represents David Jacobson with Rafael Bejarano aboard. Bejarano ranks third in current standings with 54 wins and 19% strike rate. The five-year-old horse shows tactical speed and could benefit if the pace collapses. He was an also-eligible last time, suggesting connections are confident he belongs against this group.
Hailstorm (Post 8) from David Jacobson's barn with Ramon Vazquez riding offers value potential. The four-year-old colt was scratched as a trainer scratch from December 13, indicating connections are being selective about placement. The breeding and recent workouts suggest he's ready for a competitive effort.
Longshots
Max Got Excited (Post 10) from Brett Creighton's barn offers value at 4-1 morning line. Francisco Arrieta, the leading rider, takes the mount from the far outside post. Arrieta's 18% win rate and outside post position create a reasonable longshot play.
Betting Strategy
Use Speed King as a single in multi-race wagers if confident in his class edge. For single-race wagers, box Speed King and Coach Jimi D in exactas, adding Suncroft and Hailstorm for trifecta coverage. The allowance level and competitive field suggest spreading in exotics provides better value than straight win betting on the favorite.
Selections
Win: Speed King (3)
Place: Coach Jimi D (7)
Show: Suncroft (6)
Race 10 – Starter Allowance
Post Time: 4:47 PM CST
1 Mile Dirt – Purse $36,000
Three years old and upward which have started for claiming price $10,000 or less in 2023-2025.
Pace Analysis
This closing starter allowance route features 14 horses, creating a complex pace scenario similar to Race 2. Multiple horses will contest the early lead, ensuring honest fractions. The mile distance with the auxiliary finish line creates a shorter stretch run, favoring horses positioned close to the pace entering the final turn.
Key Contenders
Curlin's Malibu (Post 14) draws the far outside but brings elite jockey Luis Saez from Joe Sharp's barn. The six-year-old gelding recently won the Kent Stirling Memorial Iron Horse at the Claiming Crown, defeating quality competition. Sharp has been highly successful at the Claiming Crown, and this gelding represents his best starter allowance stock. Saez's presence indicates strong confidence, and the gelding's recent form suggests he's peaking. While the outside post is challenging, Saez excels at overcoming difficult draws.
Dual Monarchy (Post 9) offers value from the middle of the field with Kelsi Harr riding. Trainer Robert Cline has limited success at Oaklawn (2-3% win rates), but this gelding shows consistent form and could benefit from the expected pace scenario.
Secondary Choices
Words of Wisdom (Post 3) from Tony Rengstorf's barn with Israel Hernandez aboard represents solid value. The six-year-old gelding draws a favorable inside post for the mile distance, where posts 1-3 produce 40% of winners. His running style suits the expected pace, and Rengstorf has been patient placing this gelding appropriately.
Speightster Red (Post 2) ships from Dan Ward's barn with Abel Cedillo riding. The seven-year-old gelding shows early speed and should secure good position from the inside draw. Ward has been successful with claiming and starter stock.
Longshots
Ben Franklin (Post 7) from F. Dewaine Loy's barn with Francisco Arrieta aboard offers longshot value. Arrieta leads all riders with 65 wins and 18%, and his presence on a 4.50-1 horse suggests hidden ability.
Betting Strategy
The 14-horse field creates opportunity for substantial exotic payoffs. Use Curlin's Malibu and Dual Monarchy in exactas and trifectas, adding Words of Wisdom and Ben Franklin for broader coverage. Consider this race for pick three sequences from earlier races, as the complexity creates value opportunities for handicappers who successfully navigate the contentious finale.
Selections
Win: Curlin's Malibu (14)
Place: Dual Monarchy (9)
Show: Words of Wisdom (3)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Francisco Arrieta continues his dominance of the Oaklawn riding colony, leading with 65 wins and an 18% strike rate through the early weeks of the 2024-25 meet. Arrieta parlayed a scorching final 1.5 months of the previous season into the riding title and has maintained that momentum. He recently piloted Jersey Pearl to a stunning 5-1 upset in the Poinsettia Stakes, showcasing his ability to time his moves perfectly in stakes competition. Handicappers should pay particular attention when Arrieta rides for top trainers or receives choice mounts, as his agent is securing quality opportunities.
Cristian Torres ranks second with 62 wins but trails Arrieta in win percentage at 15%. Torres captured the riding title twice in recent years (2022-23 and 2023-24) and knows Oaklawn's configuration intimately. He excels on horses with tactical speed that can position close to the pace, though his success rate has declined slightly from previous campaigns.
Rafael Bejarano sits third with 54 wins and a strong 19% strike rate. Bejarano's experience and tactical skills make him particularly dangerous on horses that fit the track's profile. He performs exceptionally well when paired with established trainers and horses dropping in class or cutting back in distance.
Tyler Bacon occupies fourth place with 49 wins and 13% strike rate. Bacon has developed into a reliable rider who excels with horses that require patient handling and can make sustained late runs. His partnership with Chris Hartman's barn (38% win rate) has been particularly productive.
Luis Saez brings elite national credentials to his Oaklawn rides. While not based full-time at the Arkansas track, Saez ranks among the nation's leading riders with exceptional winning percentages nationwide. When Saez accepts a mount at Oaklawn, it typically signals strong confidence from major trainers. His tactical brilliance and finishing punch make him dangerous in any race, and bettors should respect his presence regardless of the horse's form.
Ramon Vazquez rounds out the top five with 40 wins and 11% strike rate. Vazquez provides consistency and works well with both veteran trainers and horses that require tactical precision. His success rate improves significantly when riding for trainers with established Oaklawn success.
Erik and Keith Asmussen continue their successful association with father Steven Asmussen's powerful stable. Erik Asmussen has been riding with exceptional confidence following a productive meet at Remington Park. The family combination has been particularly effective in recent weeks, making any Asmussen runner worthy of consideration.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Steven Asmussen operates the dominant stable at Oaklawn with 198 wins from 1,232 starts for a 16% win rate. After a slow opening weekend, Asmussen's operation improved dramatically, finishing in the winner's circle five times during the third weekend of racing. His string includes Publisher in Race 4 and multiple other quality runners throughout the card. Asmussen's horses typically show improvement in second and third starts, making his runners particularly dangerous when returning at appropriate intervals.
Kenneth McPeek maintains a remarkable 31% win rate at Oaklawn and 45% in-the-money percentage. McPeek's 2024 campaign included sweeping the Kentucky Derby with Mystik Dan and Kentucky Oaks with Thorpedo Anna, making him only the third trainer in 150 years to achieve this feat. His success comes from identifying talent at bargain prices and developing young horses patiently. When McPeek enters a horse at Oaklawn, especially in maiden or allowance races, bettors should expect competitive efforts.
Chris Hartman sports an outstanding 38% win rate at Oaklawn with 55% in-the-money percentage. His relatively small string focuses on quality over quantity, and he excels at placing horses in appropriate spots. Hartman's partnership with Tyler Bacon has been particularly effective, and his runners often represent value when overlooked by casual bettors.
Norm Casse maintains a 26% win rate with an impressive 54% in-the-money percentage. As son of Canadian Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, Norm learned from one of the sport's best and has established his own successful operation. His horses typically show tactical speed and respond well to rating tactics.
Ron Moquett operates a smaller string at the current meet with only one win from 18 starts, but he remains a dangerous trainer when finding the right spots. Moquett trained multiple Grade 1 winners including Whitmore and has deep experience with Arkansas racing. His limited starts suggest selectivity, making his entries potentially more significant when they appear. However, his Speed King in Race 9 represents a quality runner dropping back from graded stakes competition.
David Jacobson maintains solid statistics and excels with horses that possess tactical speed and can rate kindly. His multiple entries on December 26 include Turn Up the Trees in Race 6 and runners in Race 9, suggesting he has horses positioned appropriately for success.
James DiVito has been productive in recent weeks, particularly with Coach Jimi D, who won an allowance race in April. DiVito's success rate improves when paired with quality jockeys like Luis Saez, indicating his stable's better horses receive proper riding talent.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Pick 4: Races 4-5-6-7
This sequence offers excellent value potential combining a logical maiden race, an unpredictable Arkansas-bred race, a competitive starter allowance, and a wide-open claiming route. Structure the ticket as follows:
- Race 4: Publisher, Nu What's New, Magical Wish (3 horses)
- Race 5: ALL (12 horses)
- Race 6: Raymond, Turn Up the Trees (2 horses)
- Race 7: Sara's Shaman, Creative Minister, Underhill's Tab, Unload (4 horses)
Total combinations: 3 x 12 x 2 x 4 = 288 combinations at $0.50 = $144
This spread allows for the unpredictable Arkansas-bred race while singling or limiting horses in more predictable spots.
Pick 3: Races 7-8-9
The Pippin Stakes provides an excellent anchor for pick three wagers:
- Race 7: Sara's Shaman, Creative Minister, Underhill's Tab, Unload, Hern (5 horses)
- Race 8: Standoutsensation, Corningstone (2 horses)
- Race 9: Speed King (1 horse)
Total combinations: 5 x 2 x 1 = 10 combinations at $6 = $60
Using Speed King as a single in Race 9 based on his class edge creates a reasonable ticket cost while spreading in the contentious Race 7.
Rolling Exactas
Several races offer excellent exacta opportunities based on the track bias and horse quality:
Race 1: Box 10-2-5 ($12 for $2 exacta)
Race 6: 9-6 box with 2-3 ($16 for $2 exacta)
Race 8: 6-3 box with 4 ($12 for $2 exacta)
Win Bet Value Plays
Raymond in Race 6: If the layoff creates doubt and he drifts to 4-1 or higher, this represents exceptional value given his track record at Oaklawn.
Creative Minister in Race 7: At 4-1 morning line in the 13-horse field, he offers value based on his course and distance success with Ramon Vazquez.
Coach Jimi D in Race 9: Provides an alternative to the likely favorite Speed King while offering better odds with proven Oaklawn form.
Late Double: Races 9-10
The final two races create opportunity for substantial payoffs:
- Race 9: Speed King, Coach Jimi D, Suncroft (3 horses)
- Race 10: Curlin's Malibu, Dual Monarchy, Words of Wisdom, Ben Franklin (4 horses)
Total combinations: 3 x 4 = 12 combinations at $3 = $36
This allows spreading in the complex finale while limiting selections to logical horses in the allowance race.
Trifecta Value
Race 2 offers potential for a lucrative trifecta given the 14-horse field and multiple legitimate contenders. Box Critical Threat, Apollo Rising, Winter's Ghost, and Sound of Victory for $48 ($2 trifecta). The large field and competitive nature create value if one of the longer shots finishes in the money.
The December 26 card at Oaklawn Park provides excellent wagering opportunities across all races. The combination of perfect weather, fast track conditions, and competitive fields creates an ideal environment for both recreational and serious handicappers to find value throughout the afternoon.
