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Oaklawn Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the March 22, 2026 card

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Oaklawn Park offers a nine-race Sunday card on March 22, 2026, with a typical meet mix of maiden claimers, conditioned claimers, starter allowance, and two strong allowance races anchoring the late pick sequences. The program is dirt-only as Oaklawn does not have a turf course, so all races are on the one-mile dirt oval with its well-known short stretch at a mile and fair, but pace-sensitive, configuration in sprints and routes.

The overall meet profile continues to show large competitive fields, especially at six furlongs and one mile, which enhances exotic wagering opportunities but increases the importance of identifying pace setups and trip potential. Recent “at a glance” reporting and meet previews emphasize that front-runners and pace-pressers have an edge in both sprints and routes, while deep closers are at a relative disadvantage unless race shape collapses. With strong barns like Steven Asmussen, Ron Moquett, Chris Hartman, Mark Casse, Norm Casse, Greg Compton, and others active at the meet, human connections matter and should be factored heavily in today's races.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Available regional and historical data for Oaklawn in late March point to mild, dry-to-fast conditions with typical highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and meet coverage for this season has not indicated any unusual prolonged rain events disrupting the racing surface. Public bias writeups and track guides describe Oaklawn's dirt as generally fair but often playing kind to speed when dry and “normal,” which is the expected baseline for a Sunday card in late March.

No specific, race-day official track maintenance bulletins or sealed/wet track notes were located for March 22, 2026, beyond the general meet commentary, so the working assumption must remain a standard, fast track absent last-minute local weather changes. Because sprint and route performance profiles are sensitive to moisture at Oaklawn, it is still important to monitor pre-race visuals and intra-day bias if rain were to develop, but nothing in the available data suggests a pre-existing off track for this card.

Track Bias and Post Position Bias

Recent quantitative analysis of the 2024–2025 Oaklawn meet shows clear evidence that outside posts have become strong in sprints, with posts 7 and outward winning about 40% of the sprint races, compared with 30% for inside posts 1–3 and 30% for middle posts 4–6. This supports the prevailing impression that outside paths and outside draws can be advantageous in six-furlong races, especially when combined with tactical speed.

Running style data confirm that early speed and pace-pressers remain preferred: speed horses on or near the lead won about 40% of sprints, with stalkers winning roughly 38%, leaving late closers at only about 22% of sprint wins, which is a significant disadvantage. At one mile, inside posts 1–3 captured about 40% of races, middle posts 4–6 about 36%, and outside 7+ just 24%, so for today's two one-mile allowance races, inside and mid gates are a mild positive while outside routes can be overcome but are somewhat less efficient. Because of the short stretch at a mile and the alternate finish line, front-end and tactical pace are again favored at this distance, with front-runners and pace-pressers winning about 42% of races compared to only 21% for closers.​

1st Race – Oaklawn Park – Sunday, March 22, 2026

Maiden claiming, 6 furlongs, older horses, 40000 tag on a fair but speed-favoring sprint profile.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 12:30 PM local.​

Pace Analysis

The main projected speeds are Speedstorm (6) and Hard Circle (4), with Mckinsense (7) and Nyquist Frequency (1) capable of attending just behind. The race does not project as a meltdown; there is some contention, but not a suicidal duel, and tactical speed in outside lanes should be effective given meet trends.​

From the rail, Nyquist Frequency (1) risks getting shuffled if not asked early, but the horse has enough tactical pace to hold position if the rider commits. Capital Connection (3) and Historic (5) are likely to sit off the top group and hope to grind into the exotics if the leaders weaken late.

Key Contenders

Speedstorm (6) for Ron Moquett fits the ideal Oaklawn sprint profile: a four-year-old colt with speed, drawn outside most pace, trained by a barn that has been winning at a high percentage at the meet. Moquett's recent Oaklawn seasons show mid-teens to high-teens win rates, and pairing that with a strong, aggressive local rider in Ramon Vazquez is a positive signal. If Speedstorm (6) breaks cleanly, he is the most likely horse to control or press the pace in a comfortable lane and finish strongly.​

Hard Circle (4) for Michael Maker and Cristian Torres has enough speed to be in the first flight and comes from a high-percentage barn with a good record placing horses realistically. Maker's Oaklawn stats show strong win and in-the-money percentages, especially when shipping in fit claimers and maidens. Hard Circle (4) projects to sit either on the lead or just off Speedstorm (6), ideally stalking and using Maker's conditioning edge late.

Mckinsense (7) trained by Randy Morse and ridden by Rafael Bejarano benefits from the outside draw which has been productive at six furlongs. Bejarano's Oaklawn win rate has been strong at around 19–31% depending on sample, and Morse is a high-percentage Oaklawn trainer, so the combination of connections and a stalking outside trip makes McKinsense (7) a key player if the leaders tire at all.

Secondary Choices

Nyquist Frequency (1) for Chris Hartman and Francisco Arrieta is very live on connections alone, as Hartman is among the most efficient Oaklawn trainers and Arrieta is the defending leading rider. The concern is the inside draw in a race where the best paths have skewed outward, but if Nyquist Frequency (1) can secure a pocket trip just behind Hard Circle (4), the horse could get every chance to finish strongly on the rail.​

Capital Connection (3) from the Steven Asmussen barn, with Keith Asmussen up, fits as a grinding type that can pick up pieces but may lack a decisive turn of foot. The Asmussen operation starts many horses at Oaklawn and wins plenty, but recent meet stats show a lower win percentage than his reputation, so demanding value on Capital Connection (3) is appropriate.​

Longshots

Historic (5) trained by Norm Casse and ridden by Abel Cedillo is interesting as a horse moving from a lower-level maiden claimant last time; the barn's Oaklawn stats are strong but this particular gelding's recent effort was at a cheaper level. With a mid-gate draw and a solid jockey, Historic (5) can clunk up for a minor share if the top speeds falter late.​

Nyquist Frequency (1) and Mckinsense (7) have higher floors on connections; the true outsider on paper is whichever entrant has the weakest speed figures and form, but without full PPs, the generic longshot label falls to those lacking notable human angles, which does not strongly apply to any of these, so there is no obvious complete toss solely on connections.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win bets should focus on Speedstorm (6), with backup win coverage on Hard Circle (4) if the board offers fair prices on both. An exacta key using Speedstorm (6) over Nyquist Frequency (1), Hard Circle (4), Mckinsense (7), and Historic (5) is logical. Trifectas can lean on Speedstorm (6) and Hard Circle (4) in the top two spots, using Nyquist Frequency (1), McKinsense (7), Historic (5), and Capital Connection (3) underneath.

Selections

Win Speedstorm (6)
Place Hard Circle (4)
Show Nyquist Frequency (1)

2nd Race – Oaklawn Park – Sunday, March 22, 2026

Claiming, 1 mile, fillies and mares, non-winners of two, 32000 claiming tag, with a short-stretch mile configuration that favors speed and inside/mid posts.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 1:03 PM.​

Pace Analysis

Promisemeanempire (3), Bamtwentyklater (4), Revelant (5), and Super Costly (8) provide most of the pace, with Teatotal (7) potentially attending if she leaves sharper than in prior starts. The short stretch makes it difficult for horses coming from far back, so inside to mid-gate pace-pressers are preferred.

Revelant (5) from post 5 has ideal tactical options: can sit just off the top two or take over if no one else commits. Bamtwentyklater (4) and Super Costly (8) likely keep things honest, but none look like run-off types, so expect a solid but not suicidal pace that rewards the best tactical trip.

Key Contenders

Revelant (5) is highlighted by multiple handicappers as a value spot play at an 8-1 type morning line, indicating perceived overlay potential relative to the horse's win chance. Trained by John Ortiz, a capable Oaklawn conditioner, and ridden by Danilo Grisales Rave, Revelant (5) projects to sit in the catbird seat just off the pace and get first run into the short stretch. The combination of trip and price makes this mare particularly attractive in this spot.​

Super Costly (8) for Rodolphe Brisset and Cristian Torres has strong connections but a slightly disadvantageous outside post at the mile distance, where inner gates have been better. Nonetheless, Torres is one of the top Oaklawn riders and can overcome the draw by sending enough to get position before the first turn. If Super Costly (8) clears or tucks in behind Bamtwentyklater (4), she becomes a major win threat.​

Promisemeanempire (3) with Francisco Arrieta aboard for Matt Shirer has the ideal post and rider combination for this trip. Arrieta's strength at Oaklawn, combined with an inside draw, makes Promisemeanempire (3) a key contender to either set or sit close to the pace, and she should be in the mix turning for home if her recent form is competitive.

Secondary Choices

Bamtwentyklater (4) from the Thomas Amoss barn with Rafael Bejarano up is a classic “connections” horse at this level. Amoss is a sharp placement trainer, and Bejarano is a high-percentage Oaklawn rider, so if Bamtwentyklater (4) brings forward form, she is a logical top-three finisher. The combination suggests she may take money, so she is more of a logical inclusion than a strong value.

Catching Heat (6) for Steven Asmussen and Keith Asmussen is in the second tier of contenders: barn power is undeniable, but win percentage at this meet has been lower than some other top outfits, so taking shorter odds may not be optimal. From post 6, Catching Heat (6) can stalk the pace in a good lane and pick up pieces late.​

Longshots

Quibble (2) for Michael Lauer and Jane Elliott is an inside-drawn filly that could benefit from ground-saving tactics behind the leaders. While Lauer does not have the same profile as the highest-percentage Oaklawn barns, this is the right kind of spot for a rail trip to sneak into the exotics if the race falls apart a bit late.

Teatotal (7) has a prior scratch noted in a similar race at this meet, which raises minor concern but also indicates the trainer has been trying to find the right level. With a low-weight rider Tyler Bacon and a mid-outside draw, Teatotal (7) profiles as a longshot capable of outrunning odds if she breaks alertly and sits mid-pack.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Given the value appeal and consensus support, Revelant (5) is the primary win bet if the price holds near or above her likely morning line. Use exacta boxes and keys with Revelant (5) and Promisemeanempire (3), including Super Costly (8) and Bamtwentyklater (4). In trifectas, key Revelant (5) and Promisemeanempire (3) in top spots and spread underneath with Super Costly (8), Bamtwentyklater (4), Catching Heat (6), Quibble (2), and Teatotal (7).​

Selections

Win Revelant (5)
Place Promisemeanempire (3)
Show Super Costly (8)

3rd Race – Oaklawn Park – Sunday, March 22, 2026

Starter allowance, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, one-other-than starter condition, with several recent scratches in this division noted in prior races.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 1:34 PM.​

Pace Analysis

Well Aware (1) and Baytown Butterfly (4) project as primary pace factors, with True Passion (5) and Moon Over Choctaw (7) adding pressure from outside. Up The Creek (2) and Shanett (3) should settle mid-pack, while Tizntshelovely (6) likely sits off the main speed.

Given the meet's sprint profile, a horse in the first flight or stalking just behind is preferred. With several solid speed types but not an abundance of true need-the-lead runners, a controlled but honest pace is expected.​

Key Contenders

Well Aware (1), trained by Chris Hartman and ridden by Keith Asmussen, has already scratched once from a higher-level allowance at this meet, suggesting this starter allowance spot may be a better fit. Hartman's Oaklawn stats are excellent, and the rail draw is less of a concern when the horse has speed to leave and maintain position. Well Aware (1) is a major win candidate if she breaks sharply and controls the inside.

Baytown Butterfly (4) for Peter Miller and Ramon Vazquez brings serious connection power, as Miller has one of the best win rates at Oaklawn and Vazquez is a proven local. She has tactical speed and a mid-gate draw, which should let her sit in the clear outside Well Aware (1) and apply pressure or pounce turning for home.​

Moon Over Choctaw (7) from the Philip D'Amato barn with Rafael Bejarano is a dangerous stalker type breaking outside. D'Amato is a high-quality trainer reloading at Oaklawn, and the combination with Bejarano in an outside post fits the meet's outside-friendly sprint story.​

Secondary Choices

Shanett (3) with Francisco Arrieta aboard for S Jade Cunningham is an inside-mid stalker that could enjoy a perfect trip behind Well Aware (1) and Baytown Butterfly (4). Arrieta's presence suggests the barn has confidence, and Shanett (3) can pick up pieces if the top two tangle.

Tizntshelovely (6) for Dallas Stewart and Cristian Torres is the classic “midprice” contender: honest, likely to run her race, and reasonably placed, but more often in the frame than on top. Stewart's Oaklawn strike rate is modest but he frequently hits the board in these allowance and starter spots.

Longshots

Up The Creek (2) with Tyler Bacon and True Passion (5) with Joseph Bealmear represent longshot possibilities. Up the Creek (2) should save ground and hope the leaders back up into her, while True Passion (5) could get brave if allowed to clear or sit comfortably near the pace without being pressed hard.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Focus win bets on Well Aware (1) and Baytown Butterfly (4) depending on which offers better price. Use exacta combinations 1–4–7, keying Well Aware (1) on top and including Moon Over Choctaw (7) underneath for value. Trifectas can be structured around 1 and 4 in first and second, with 3, 6, and 7 underneath.

Selections

Win Well Aware (1)
Place Baytown Butterfly (4)
Show Moon Over Choctaw (7)

4th Race – Oaklawn Park – Sunday, March 22, 2026

Claiming, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, non-winners of three or non-winners since November, 12500 tag, with an entry of Collected Glory (3) and Riobella (4).​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 2:05 PM.​

Pace Analysis

Rodeo Star (6) and Tartaria (7) provide primary speed, with St. Albans Raid (8) potentially flashing early foot and Abitibi (9) stalking from the outside. First Hill (1) and Smart With Heart (2) are likely to sit off the early duel and hope to close late.

This appears to be one of the more contentious pace races on the card, with multiple fillies who prefer to be forward and several turning back or dropping in class. Given Oaklawn's sprint bias, a collapse is never guaranteed, but the chance of a pace-softened front is higher here than in some earlier races.​

Key Contenders

Rodeo Star (6) from the Ilkay Kantarmaci barn with David Cohen up has a recent scratch noted from a similar claiming event, which can indicate minor issues or just a change in placement strategy. When right, Rodeo Star (6) has the speed to take command and the connections to maintain the lead, but she must avoid getting embroiled in an extended duel with Tartaria (7) and St. Albans Raid (8).​

Tartaria (7) for Steven Asmussen and Erik Asmussen is dangerous on the front end at this level. The Asmussen barn often sends horses aggressively in these mid-level claimers, and with a lightish weight and a good outside draw, Tartaria (7) is poised to either press or sit just off the leaders and pounce.​

Abitibi (9) with Ramon Vazquez riding for Peter Miller stands out on pure connections: Miller's Oaklawn stats are elite and Vazquez is fully capable of working out a three-wide stalking trip. Abitibi (9) may get the best of both worlds: avoiding the intense inside speed battle while having clear run down the lane.​

Secondary Choices

First Hill (1) for John Haran and Walter De La Cruz is a rail-saving closer type in this setup. If the pace melts down, First Hill (1) can slip through inside and rally into the exotics. Smart With Heart (2) for Wayne Potts and Emmanuel Esquivel is another stalker with a chance to pick up pieces if the speed weakens.

The entry Collected Glory (3) and Riobella (4) offers two shots for the price of one. Collected Glory (3) under Cristian Torres for William Martin and Riobella (4) under Israel Hernandez for Kim Puhl together provide midpack and late-running profiles, and either could hit the board if the pace scenario plays to their strengths.

Longshots

Highly Creative (5) with apprentice Amir Mendoza and St. Albans Raid (8) with low-weight rider Ronnie Huckaby represent the more speculative longshots. Highly Creative (5) carries less weight and could improve with that break, while St. Albans Raid (8) may be sent and try to wire them at a price.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race sets up for some coverage in multi-race wagers. In horizontals, use Abitibi (9), Tartaria (7), and Rodeo Star (6) as A-levels, with First Hill (1) and the entry Collected Glory (3)/Riobella (4) as backups. Win bets can target Abitibi (9) or Tartaria (7) depending on which one offers better value. Exactas using Abitibi (9) on top over 6, 7, 1, 3, 4 are logical, and trifectas can key 9 and 7 with deeper spread underneath.

Selections

Win Abitibi (9)
Place Tartaria (7)
Show Rodeo Star (6)

5th Race – Oaklawn Park – Sunday, March 22, 2026

Maiden claiming, 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 40000 tag.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 2:36 PM.​

Pace Analysis

Raging Current (3) and With Kindness (4) project as the main pace, with Nyad (2) and She's Honed In (7) in the second flight. Suitefourfourthree (1) and Ye Ole Joker (5) may settle just off them, and Lovely Words (6) likely stalks midpack.

Pace pressure is moderate to strong here, with multiple lightly raced maidens potentially stepping forward. Given the sprint bias, a forward trip still is advantageous, but a stalker with first run could capitalize if the tempo is honest.​

Key Contenders

Nyad (2) for Cameron Milligan and Francisco Arrieta stands out on connections and projected trip. Arrieta is one of the top riders at the meet and excels in placing horses just behind the speed, an ideal profile in this race. From post 2, Nyad (2) can break, hold the rail behind the top two, and angle out into the clear turning for home.​

She's Honed In (7) trained by Steve Manley with Cristian Torres up offers an attractive outside-drawn maiden in a sprint at a meet where outer gates have been effective. Torres is among the leading riders and is adept at timing moves from outside stalk positions, making She's Honed In (7) a major win candidate if she shows any improvement.​

With Kindness (4) from the Aaron Shorter barn with Ramon Vazquez is another key player: Vazquez's Oaklawn record is strong and Shorter, while lower-percentage overall, has had some meaningful winners at this meet. With Kindness (4) has enough speed to be in the first wave and could be tough if allowed to dictate terms.​

Secondary Choices

Suitefourfourthree (1) under Abel Cedillo for Greg Compton is a logical underneath type with upside; Compton's Oaklawn record is good and he often moves horses forward second time over the track. From the rail in a sprint, the trip could be tricky, but if Suitefourfourthree (1) breaks cleanly, she can save ground and possibly slip through late.​

Ye Ole Joker (5) for McLean Robertson and David Cohen and Lovely Words (6) for John Ortiz and Danilo Grisales Rave both have enough profile to hit the board with modest improvement. Ortiz in particular has been a capable Oaklawn trainer, and Lovely Words (6) may be better than initial form suggests.

Longshots

Raging Current (3) under Jaime Torres and With Kindness (4) also could be overlooked if bettors gravitate to the more obvious rider/trainer combinations, so keep an eye on the board. Any maiden with speed here is dangerous given the track profile, even at longer odds.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win bets can focus on Nyad (2) and She's Honed In (7), pivoting to With Kindness (4) if either of the first two gets hammered at the windows. Exactas can use 2 and 7 over 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, with a saver box of 2–7. Trifectas should key Nyad (2) and She's Honed In (7) in first and second, spreading underneath.

Selections

Win Nyad (2)
Place She's Honed In (7)
Show With Kindness (4)

6th Race – Oaklawn Park – Sunday, March 22, 2026

Claiming, 6 furlongs, older horses, 16000 tag for those winless since November 22, 2025.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 3:07 PM.​

Pace Analysis

Got Thunder (2), Plausible Denile (4), and I'm Wide Awake (5) provide most of the speed, with Sir Sterling (1) and Sara's Shaman (3) likely tracking just behind. Healing Waters (6) and Go West (7) will probably be midpack or closing types.

This is another race where the sprint bias favors horses in the first flight, but there is enough speed to create at least mild pressure. A pace-pressing stalker from an inside or mid-gate may get the best of it.​

Key Contenders

Got Thunder (2) with Francisco Arrieta for Trisha Vance Duncan has the right combination of tactical speed, strong rider, and favorable post. Arrieta has shown the ability to put horses in winning position early, and Got Thunder (2) can either clear or sit just off Plausible Denile (4).​

Plausible Denile (4) trained by Greg Compton and ridden by Ramon Vazquez is another leading win candidate. Compton has a strong Oaklawn record, and Vazquez rides this track very well, especially on forwardly placed sprinters. Plausible Denile (4) profiles as a horse that can either control or sit comfortably near the lead and kick on.​

Sara's Shaman (3) for Lane Johnston and Joseph Bealmear offers a stalking profile that might benefit from the inside speed softening late. From post 3, Sara's Shaman (3) can save ground and make one run into a pace that could be just hot enough.

Secondary Choices

Sir Sterling (1) with Israel Hernandez for Tony Rengstorf is an inside speed/stalker that could rail-ride behind the top two and look for an opening turning in. Healing Waters (6) with Javier Padron-Barcenas for John Haran and Go West (7) with Walter De La Cruz for Kim Puhl are more likely to be late-developing threats if the race collapses.

I'm Wide Awake (5) for Timothy Martin and Tyler Bacon may be the speed-of-the-speed, but he risks being softened by multiple challengers. He is still a secondary contender because if he breaks best and gets comfortable, he could prove difficult to reel in.

Longshots

Go West (7) and Sir Sterling (1) can both outrun long odds if the race flow favors their particular trips. Go West (7) may enjoy outside lanes that have been kind in sprints, even if his closing style is not ideal in general.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win bets focus on Got Thunder (2) and Plausible Denile (4). Exactas using 2–4 over 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 seem appropriate, with a saver box 2–4. In trifectas, key 2 and 4 up top, use 1, 3, 5, 6, 7 underneath.

Selections

Win Got Thunder (2)
Place Plausible Denile (4)
Show Sara's Shaman (3)

7th Race – Oaklawn Park – Sunday, March 22, 2026

Arkansas-bred allowance, 1 mile, fillies and mares, non-winners of three or not won since November 22, 2025.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 3:38 PM.​

Pace Analysis

Caliente Star (2), She's A Dreamer (4), Lady Woopig (7), and Arr Piratetreasure (9) provide the main speed, with Lassie My Girl (5) and Gold Strategy (8) pressing just behind. Courtney Fay (1), Lady Astrid (3), and Principal Anita (6) are likely to stalk or close from midpack.

Given the mile distance and short stretch, tactical speed near the front is important, but there are multiple pace elements, so an outright wire job may be harder to achieve. A horse sitting just off the pace in a good lane should have an edge.​

Key Contenders

Arr Piratetreasure (9) for Steven Asmussen with Keith Asmussen aboard looks to be one of the key win candidates on connections and profile. While post 9 is somewhat outside for the mile, the horse's tactical speed should allow Keith Asmussen to secure a good stalking position before the turn, and the barn has made this division a target.​

Caliente Star (2) for Ron Moquett and Rafael Bejarano offers a strong inside speed/pressing option. She can either lead or sit just off She's A Dreamer (4) and Lady Woopig (7), and with Moquett's positive Oaklawn record, this filly is a major contender.​

Lady Woopig (7) under Alexander Castillo for Allen Milligan appears on the scratch watch list for a previous allowance in this division, implying she was aiming at this level for some time. From post 7, Lady Woopig (7) has the speed and position to be in the first wave and could prove tough if she gets her preferred trip.​

Secondary Choices

Principal Anita (6) with Francisco Arrieta for Tammy Hornsby is a solid stalker type that may get an ideal mid-gate trip behind the speed. Arrieta's presence significantly boosts her chances. Gold Strategy (8), trained by Dan Ward and ridden by Abel Cedillo, fits the same general mold as a stalking type from just outside the main speed.​

Courtney Fay (1) for Danele Durham and apprentice Amir Mendoza, and Lady Astrid (3) for Robert Cline and Kelsi Harr are rail-drawn longshot types that could benefit if the pace turns hot and horses tire late.

Longshots

Lassie My Girl (5) with David Cohen and Gold Strategy (8) with Abel Cedillo might both be overlooked in the wagering but have the right stalk-and-pounce profiles in a field with plenty of speed. If the main favorites hook up early, these two can capitalize in the lane.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win bets can go to Arr Piratetreasure (9) and Caliente Star (2), with some coverage on Lady Woopig (7) if her price floats above expectations. Exactas key 2 and 9 on top over 6, 7, 8, and trifectas focus on 2, 7, 9 in top two slots with 1, 3, 5, 6, 8 underneath.

Selections

Win Arr Piratetreasure (9)
Place Caliente Star (2)
Show Lady Woopig (7)

8th Race – Oaklawn Park – Sunday, March 22, 2026

Allowance, 1 mile, non-winners of two, fillies and mares.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 4:10 PM.​

Pace Analysis

Mckinzie's Glory (1), Ensorcell (3), and Bundle (4) are likely pace factors, with Untamed Moment (7) also capable of showing speed from outside. Gin's Beach Road (2), Chaching Chaching (5), and Crimsonite (6) can stalk or close depending on how the pace develops.

The mile configuration again rewards tactical speed and inside to mid posts. There are enough pace elements to prevent an uncontested lead, but no obvious blazing front-runner, so a well-positioned stalker should be advantaged.​

Key Contenders

Ensorcell (3) for Ron Moquett with Rafael Bejarano is a key player at this level and appears on the scratch watch list from an earlier similar allowance race, indicating the barn has been targeting this condition. From post 3 with a top jockey, Ensorcell (3) should secure an ideal stalking or pressing trip and has the right connections to finish strongly.​

Bundle (4) from the Steven Asmussen barn with Keith Asmussen is another primary win candidate. The mid-gate draw is ideal, and she can either press Ensorcell (3) or sit just off the leaders and attack at the quarter pole. Given Asmussen's volume at the meet, this is a realistic winning spot.​

Untamed Moment (7) trained by David Fawkes and ridden by Ramon Vazquez may be the best outside-drawn threat. She has enough speed to get decent position despite the outside post, and Vazquez excels at nursing speed over a route.​

Secondary Choices

Gin's Beach Road (2) from Mark Casse with Cristian Torres fits well as a mid-price contender, with a prior scratch log from a similar allowance. Casse's Oaklawn stats are excellent, and Torres is a strong local rider, making Gin's Beach Road (2) a horse that must be considered seriously.​

Chaching Chaching (5) trained by Norm Casse with Francisco Arrieta is another second-tier win candidate. The Casse family's Oaklawn presence has been productive, and Arrieta's riding gives this mare every chance from a fair post.​

Crimsonite (6) with Erik Asmussen for Steven Asmussen is a stablemate to Bundle (4), and while she may not have the same upside, she represents another live entry from an elite barn and could outrun odds.

Longshots

Mckinzie's Glory (1) with Emmanuel Esquivel for Sarah Shaffer is the rail-drawn speed type, and if she breaks sharply and secures an easy lead, she could prove tough at a price; however, the presence of multiple other pace players makes that scenario less likely. Chaching Chaching (5) and Crimsonite (6) may offer value in the exotics if the market focuses too narrowly on Ensorcell (3) and Bundle (4).

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Win bets should focus on Ensorcell (3) and Bundle (4), with a saver on Gin's Beach Road (2) if the price is generous. Exactas key 3 and 4 over 2, 5, 6, 7 and trifectas use 3–4 in top spots with 1, 2, 5, 6, 7 underneath.

Selections

Win Ensorcell (3)
Place Bundle (4)
Show Gin's Beach Road (2)

9th Race – Oaklawn Park – Sunday, March 22, 2026

Maiden claiming, 6 furlongs, three-year-olds, 32000 tag (28000 option).​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 4:44 PM.​

Pace Analysis

Kingscliff (2), Miss You Mo (4), Phantom Slayer (5), and Big Fuzz (8) project as primary pace types, with Wadi Al Kouf (3) and Into Battle (6) pressing just behind. Social Climber (9) and Astro Beau (7) can stalk or close depending on pace.

There is significant speed signed on, and with several barns fielding multiple entries, the chance of a strong early pace is high. A stalker from outside or a mid-gate horse with tactical positioning is preferred under this setup, especially given the sprint bias for forward but not necessarily need-the-lead runners.​

Key Contenders

Social Climber (9) stands out as a consensus spot play by handicappers, with a likely morning line in the 7-2 range and strong expectations of a forward performance. Trained by John Henry Prather Jr. and ridden by Rafael Bejarano, Social Climber (9) draws favorably outside, which plays into Oaklawn's outside-friendly sprint bias, and projects to sit just off the leaders and make a sustained run in the lane.

Big Fuzz (8) from the Steven Asmussen barn with Keith Asmussen and Wadi Al Kouf (3) with Erik Asmussen are both significant contenders from the same operation. Big Fuzz (8) benefits from the outside draw and can either press or stalk, while Wadi Al Kouf (3) has an inside-mid gate and might need some racing luck but has solid connections and a forward-running style.​

Miss You Mo (4) for Rodolphe Brisset and Cristian Torres is a major pace player and potential wire threat if the others do not pressure him as expected. Brisset's barn is capable at this meet, and Torres is a high-percentage rider who will likely send hard from this mid-gate.​

Secondary Choices

Phantom Slayer (5) and Into Battle (6), both for Norm Casse with Jaime Torres and Abel Cedillo respectively, are strong secondary options. The Casse barn has been productive at Oaklawn, and these two are placed at a realistic maiden claiming level; either could step forward significantly in this spot.​

Kingscliff (2) for Kevin Martin with Ramon Vazquez should be part of the early mix near the rail and has the rider to maximize early speed. Astro Beau (7) for Kim Puhl with Walter De La Cruz is an outside-mid runner who may sit a nice stalking trip if the inside pace heats up.

Longshots

A Wild Posse (1) with light-weight rider Ronnie Huckaby for Ray Ashford could be an interesting rail longshot if he can secure a ground-saving trip behind the speed and tip out late. Without full speed figures, his upside is unknown, but the weight break is at least a minor positive.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Social Climber (9) is a strong win bet if the price stays near or above the likely morning line, and multiple handicappers identify him as a key play. Use exactas keying Social Climber (9) over Big Fuzz (8), Wadi Al Kouf (3), Miss You Mo (4), Phantom Slayer (5), and Into Battle (6), and include some saver exactas with those horses over Social Climber (9) in case of a near-miss. Trifectas can key 9 over 3, 4, 5, 8 with 1, 2, 6, 7 in the third slot.​

Selections

Win Social Climber (9)
Place Big Fuzz (8)
Show Wadi Al Kouf (3)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Recent meet previews emphasize the strength of Francisco Arrieta, Cristian Torres, Ramon Vazquez, Rafael Bejarano, Tyler Bacon, Emmanuel Esquivel, Keith Asmussen, and Erik Asmussen at Oaklawn Park, with Arrieta the defending leading rider and Torres narrowly behind. Arrieta's mounts such as Nyquist Frequency (1) in race 1, Promisemeanempire (3) in race 2, Shanett (3) in race 3, Nyad (2) in race 5, Got Thunder (2) in race 6, Principal Anita (6) in race 7, Chaching Chaching (5) in race 8, and Social Climber (9) in race 9 all benefit from his high-percentage riding and aggressive, tactically sound style.​

Cristian Torres's presence on Hard Circle (4) in race 1, Tizntshelovely (6) in race 3, Tartaria (7) in race 4, She's Honed In (7) in race 5, Gin's Beach Road (2) in race 8, and Miss You Mo (4) in race 9 is a significant positive, especially in sprint and route situations where tactical speed and early positioning are vital. Ramon Vazquez, a longtime Oaklawn stalwart, rides Speedstorm (6), Baytown Butterfly (4), Abitibi (9), With Kindness (4), Plausible Denile (4), Gold Strategy (8), Untamed Moment (7), and Kingscliff (2), all of which can be upgraded in tight races because Vazquez historically excels in putting his horses in the first flight and holding position.

Rafael Bejarano's high win rate at Oaklawn, combined with mounts like Mckinsense (7), Bamtwentyklater (4), Moon Over Choctaw (7), She's Honed In (7) as rival in another race, Ensorcell (3), and Social Climber (9), makes him one of the key riders to follow on today's card, especially on outside-drawn stalkers. Riders like Tyler Bacon, Emmanuel Esquivel, Walter De La Cruz, Kelsi Harr, and others have more modest overall meet stats but can represent value when paired with live barns and horses expected to be overlooked.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Steve Asmussen is the dominant trainer in terms of volume and historical Oaklawn titles, but recent meet data shows a more modest win rate around 9–15% depending on season, which means many favorites from the barn can be underlays. Asmussen's horses on this card include Capital Connection (3) in race 1, Catching Heat (6) in race 2, Tizntshelovely (6) in race 3, Tartaria (7) in race 4, Raging Current (3) in race 5, multiple in the late races such as Arr Piratetreasure (9), Bundle (4), Crimsonite (6), Wadi Al Kouf (3), Big Fuzz (8), and others, which collectively suggest his barn will have a strong presence but should be evaluated individually for value rather than backed blindly.​

Ron Moquett has been on an upward trajectory at Oaklawn, finishing as one of the leading trainers with a win rate in the mid-teens, and his runners Speedstorm (6), Ledbetter (2), Super Costly (8), Caliente Star (2), and Ensorcell (3) deserve serious attention. Trainers like Chris Hartman, Greg Compton, Cipriano Contreras, John Ortiz, Norm Casse, Mark Casse, and Peter Miller have shown strong Oaklawn efficiency with win rates from high teens into the 20–30% range, making their runners particularly attractive when the price is fair: examples include Nyquist Frequency (1) for Hartman, Suitefourfourthree (1) and Plausible Denile (4) for Compton, Don't Look Back (1) for Contreras, Revelant (5) and Lovely Words (6) for Ortiz, Historic (5), Chaching Chaching (5), Phantom Slayer (5), and Into Battle (6) for the Casse family, and Abitibi (9) and Baytown Butterfly (4) for Miller.

The meet preview also notes some barns that underperformed in prior seasons, including Robert Cline and Danele Durham, whose runners Lady Astrid (3) and Courtney Fay (1) may need to offer ample price to justify inclusion on top. However, these trainers can still hit the board at prices and should not be completely dismissed in large exotics.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Given the card structure, key multi-race sequences include early doubles (races 1–2), the mid-card rolling double and pick 3s (races 3–5, 4–6), and late pick sequences centered around the allowance races in races 7 and 8 and the maiden claimer in race 9. The track's sprint and mile biases suggest leaning heavily on forwardly placed horses, especially those drawn outside in sprints and inside-to-mid in routes, when constructing pick 4 and pick 5 tickets.​

Identified value plays include Revelant (5) in race 2, highlighted by handicappers as a strong spot play at an estimated 8-1 morning line, and Social Climber (9) in race 9, noted similarly for late-card value in a maiden claiming sprint. In both cases, the strategy should be to key these horses in multi-race wagers (pick 3s, pick 4s) and verticals (win, exacta, trifecta) while using logical favorites around them for coverage.​

For a late pick 4 starting in race 6, a viable structure could be: in race 6, lean on Got Thunder (2) and Plausible Denile (4), with Sara's Shaman (3) as backup; in race 7, use Arr Piratetreasure (9), Caliente Star (2), and Lady Woopig (7); in race 8, center on Ensorcell (3) and Bundle (4) with Gin's Beach Road (2) as a value backup; and in race 9, single or strongly press Social Climber (9) while backing up with Big Fuzz (8), Wadi Al Kouf (3), Miss You Mo (4), and one Casse runner. This approach emphasizes track bias, human connections, and consensus value opinions to maximize expected return.

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