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Oaklawn Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the March 28, 2026 card

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Arkansas Derby Day at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, March 28, 2026 features a 14 race card highlighted by the 1,500,000 Arkansas Derby for three year olds at 1 1/8 miles in race 13 and the 500,000 Oaklawn Mile for older horses in race 11. The undercard includes multiple high value allowance and stakes events along with several Arkansas bred maiden races, offering strong horizontal wagering opportunities throughout the day.

Oaklawn's dirt-only configuration, short stretch in many two turn races, and typically honest but pace-favoring surface place a premium on tactical speed and position into the far turn, especially in large fields. Historically, Oaklawn has played relatively fair by post, though outside posts in sprints can be slightly more profitable than expected when combined with good gate speed.

Given the depth of the connections on this card, including leading trainers such as Steven Asmussen, Todd Pletcher, Norm Casse, and top riders like Irad Ortiz Jr., Luis Saez, Francisco Arrieta, and Ricardo Santana Jr., trip and pace dynamics will likely separate contenders more than raw figures. Many horses in the stakes races exit strong winter form and some ship in off layoff lines, creating potential value where the public may overbet obvious names while underestimating fit local runners.

Weather and Track Conditions

Regional March climatology for Arkansas and forecast indications point to mild spring conditions around March 28 with daytime highs in the low 70s Fahrenheit and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, with scattered clouds but low rain risk. That pattern supports a fast main track with minimal moisture retention issues, particularly given Oaklawn's established drainage and maintenance program.

In this kind of spring setup, Oaklawn's surface typically plays on the quick side but not excessively speed biased, allowing both front runners and stalkers to be effective while making it difficult for deep closers who leave themselves too much to do. There is no credible indication in advance of a sealed or sloppy surface for this card, so all pace projections and bias comments below assume a fast dirt track.

Track Bias and Post Position Notes

Oaklawn's one mile dirt oval with a relatively short stretch and single surface has shown a consistent tendency to reward horses who secure position in the front three or four into the turn rather than deep ralliers. Data from recent seasons shows a reasonably even distribution of sprint winners across posts, with the most profitable stalls often being mid to outside gates such as 3, 7, and 9 in six furlong races, provided the horses have some tactical speed.

At one mile, the auxiliary finish line creates a shorter stretch and longer run to the first turn, slightly dampening the usual inside draw advantage and making outside tactical types more competitive than many players assume. At 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 miles, the standard short run from the far turn to the wire still makes saving ground and launching a move before the quarter pole advantageous, so riders who secure inside or second flight stalking trips tend to overperform.

Given the likely fast main track and no obvious off-track conditions, today's races can be approached under the assumption of a mild, pace-and-position oriented bias rather than a strong rail, outside, or extreme style bias. When in doubt, upgrade horses projected to sit within two to three lengths of the lead while saving some ground, and downgrade one run closers who consistently drop far off the pace.

1st Race – Oaklawn Park – Starter Allowance – 6 furlongs

Post Time

Approximate post time is 11:35 AM local time.

Pace Analysis

This starter allowance sprint for fillies and mares has several capable pace elements but no absolute need-the-lead ball of speed, suggesting an honest but not suicidal pace. Balls In Ur Court (8) and Jet Pack (3) project as primary speed types, with Miranda's Rocky (6) and Talkin In Cursive (7) capable of pressing from just off them. One Way Or Another (2) and Adiva (5) look like mid pack stalkers, while Laura Branigan (1) and Tell Me When (4) figure to settle farther back and look for a late rail or inside-out run.

Given Oaklawn's sprint profile, the race should favor a pace-adjacent stalker who can sit just behind the first wave and tip out in the lane, rather than a deep closer. Inside posts are acceptable here but not mandatory, so horses from the middle and outside with tactical speed may gain an edge.

Key Contenders

Jet Pack (3) is a four year old with natural early foot and a strong sprint profile for this level, pairing well with Ramon Vazquez, who rides Oaklawn sprints aggressively from the gate. Her ability to clear or sit just outside Balls In Ur Court (8) makes her the most likely horse to get the trip if she breaks cleanly and maintains her prior form.

Talkin In Cursive (7) offers a dangerous pace-pressing style, and her five year old mare maturity and fit with a capable finisher like Jaime Torres give her flexibility to either attend or stalk. If the inside pace types skirmish early, she could get the perfect outside pressing trip and grind past late.

Miranda's Rocky (6) is another pace-adjacent mare who has shown consistency at this starter level and fits the race conditions well, with Walter De La Cruz rarely wasting ground in these mid-pack pressing roles. She may be a bit pace dependent but remains a solid inclusion on multi race tickets.

Secondary Choices

One Way Or Another (2) gets weight off and draws inside, which allows Francisco Arrieta to work out a ground saving stalking trip behind the speed wall. While she may lack some of the upside of the top choices, trainer Casey Schleis spots her logically and she should be running late for a piece.

Adiva (5) gets Rafael Bejarano and carries a light assignment under the allowances, giving her a small edge if the pace heats up. She is an honest mare at this starter level and can pass tired horses, though she may find one or two a bit sharper in the lane.

Longshots

Laura Branigan (1) must work out a trip from the rail under Tyler Bacon, and her recent form suggests she is more of a minor award candidate unless the pace collapses. Tell Me When (4) has some back figures but would need a clear form reversal to threaten for the win at this stage, though she could clunk up late for minor exotics.

Balls In Ur Court (8) figures to show speed from the outside and could hang around longer than expected if she clears and the track leans towards speed, but her prior claiming form suggests she is more likely to get caught late in this starter allowance company.

Selections

Win Jet Pack (3)
Place Talkin In Cursive (7)
Show Miranda's Rocky (6)

Betting Strategy and Angles

In verticals, lean on Jet Pack (3) as a win key while backing up with saver exactas that include Talkin In Cursive (7) and Miranda's Rocky (6). Trifectas can be structured 3 with 6,7 with 1,2,4,5,6,7,8 and 6,7 with 3 with the same underneath group to cover a mild upset. For horizontals starting here, a conservative approach would use 3 as an A, 6 and 7 as B types.

2nd Race – Maiden Claiming Arkansas Bred – 6 furlongs

Post Time

Approximate post time is 12:07 PM.

Pace Analysis

Race 2 is an Arkansas bred maiden claiming sprint with a large field and several lightly raced runners, which often produces chaotic pace scenarios. Polar Wolf (6), Perfectly Harvey (1), and Gimme A Chance (4) figure to show some speed, while Flat Out Blessed (7) and Viney (8) could be close up tracking types. First time or lightly exposed types like Free Of Frost (5) and King Nique (9) could also show more pace than their lines suggest.

Expect a moderately fast to fast pace with potential for multiple lead changes early, making this a race where mid pack runners with some finish may be slightly advantaged over pure need-the-lead types.

Key Contenders

Mr Fahrenheit (11) draws outside with Rafael Bejarano for a capable barn and figures as a key late running contender in a race that may fall apart late. His outside post allows him to avoid traffic, and Bejarano's ability to time a run against inexperienced claimers can be decisive at Oaklawn.

Gimme A Chance (4) carries the Asmussen name both as trainer and rider, and this combination often indicates a live runner in state bred maiden claimers. From a forward position, he can be dangerous if he breaks cleanly and the pace, while honest, does not completely melt down.

Perfectly Harvey (1) has the rail and Ramon Vazquez, who is very effective sending from the inside in these lower level sprints. If he breaks sharply and secures the rail, he could be the one they all have to catch turning for home.

Secondary Choices

King Nique (9) has enough tactical foot to secure a stalking trip from the outside, and David Cohen is capable of leaving the gates sharply and dropping in behind the speed. Viney (8) under Israel Hernandez also fits as a mid pack stalker who can pounce if the leaders start to weaken.

Free Of Frost (5) and Polar Wolf (6) are lightly exposed Arkansas breds with potential to improve second or third time out, and they have enough pace to be involved early. Both are usable in exotics and on wider multi race tickets.

Longshots

Denali Lightning (10) shows on the scratch watch with a prior trainer scratch line, which can be positive or negative depending on context, but at the maiden claiming level he looks more like an underneath player unless the favorites underperform. Flat Out Blessed (7), Jonesboogie (3), and Bernardi (2) need moves forward to win, though they could round out lower rungs of trifectas and superfectas.

Selections

Win Mr Fahrenheit (11)
Place Gimme A Chance (4)
Show Perfectly Harvey (1)

Betting Strategy and Angles

Given the potential chaos, consider spreading more in horizontals here while leaning a bit on Mr Fahrenheit (11) as a top preference due to his outside draw and rider. Vertical wagers might use 11 over 1,4,8,9,10 in exactas, and 11 with 1,4,8,9,10 with 1,3,4,5,7,8,9,10,11 in trifectas. Watch the tote for clues, as maiden claimers often see sharp money show up late on live first time starters or wake ups.

3rd Race – Arkansas Bred Maiden Special Weight Fillies – 6 furlongs

Post Time

Approximate post time is 12:39 PM.

Pace Analysis

This is an Arkansas bred maiden special for fillies and mares, and the presence of first time starters or lightly raced types like Stevie Kicks (1), Peaceful Dreams (3), Vekoma's Diva (6), and Secret Slew (9) suggests multiple possible pace scenarios. Runaway Roxy (5) and Rebecca Jo (7) appear to have some natural speed, while Roots Tootn (8) and Bolivia (2) may sit mid pack.

Given Oaklawn's profile and the nature of state bred maidens, expect several fillies to be hustled early, yielding a solid but not necessarily punishing pace. Tactical types who can sit third or fourth may be best positioned.

Key Contenders

Vekoma's Diva (6) with Luis Saez riding for George Weaver projects as a key filly, combining a win early pedigree with a top dirt sprint rider. Saez is adept at securing good position just off the pace, and this filly is likely to be well prepared for her debut at this level.

Peaceful Dreams (3), with Erik Asmussen riding for Terry Eoff, also fits the profile of a live first or second time starter in state bred company. Her inside to mid gate draw gives her options to attend or stalk while avoiding the widest trip.

Secret Slew (9) offers upside with Donnie Von Hemel and Luis Quinonez, a combination that historically does well with Arkansas breds. From the outside, she can watch the pace develop and make a sustained run without severe traffic.

Secondary Choices

Rebecca Jo (7) for Tammy Hornsby and Francisco Arrieta looks like a pace-adjacent filly who can sit just off the leaders and get first run. Bolivia (2) and Runaway Roxy (5) are mid pack to pace-pressing candidates who can be involved in the exotics with minor improvement.

Roots Tootn (8) and Grayrock Lady (10) represent outside posts with some potential to pick up pieces late, especially if the debuters are a bit green or if the pace is more contested than expected.

Longshots

Stevie Kicks (1) draws the rail with a bug rider, Amir Mendoza, and is somewhat pace dependent in a spot where rail pressure might be intense. Trump's Diamonds (4) shows multiple prior scratches, including trainer and steward decisions, which adds uncertainty; she will need a big turnaround to threaten for the win but could run on late for a minor share if sound and properly placed.

Selections

Win Vekoma's Diva (6)
Place Peaceful Dreams (3)
Show Secret Slew (9)

Betting Strategy and Angles

This is a race where watching the board is crucial, as the market often identifies live firsters in state bred maiden specials. In horizontals, consider using 3,6,7,9 as primary, as any of them could prove best on the day. Vertically, a key exacta 6 over 3,7,9,2,5 and saver boxes 3-6 and 6-9 can be effective, with trifectas spreading deeper underneath to capture a price.

4th Race – Temperence Hill Stakes – 1 1/2 miles

Post Time

Approximate post time is 1:11 PM.

Pace Analysis

This 1 1/2 mile dirt stakes for older horses is a stamina test rarely run at Oaklawn and attracts a small field of six. Forged Steel (1) with Irad Ortiz Jr. and Jokestar (6) both have enough speed to ensure an honest early pace, while Tracking Error (3) and Compton (4) can sit just behind. Parchment Party (5) and Happy Strike (2) are more mid pack grinders who will look to outstay rivals rather than outkick them.

Marathon races at Oaklawn often favor horses who relax early and make a steady, sustained move rather than quick turn of foot types. Expect a moderate early tempo that gradually quickens from the half mile pole onward.

Key Contenders

Forged Steel (1) ships in from Gulfstream connections with Saffie Joseph Jr. and Irad Ortiz Jr., a potent combination for staying types. His recent scratches suggest careful placement, and here he meets a field where his tactical speed and class edge give him a strong winning profile at the extended distance.

Parchment Party (5) from the Bill Mott barn with Luis Saez is another top contender, as Mott excels with route and marathon horses, and Saez is adept at getting position and rationing speed. His grinding style fits the long Oaklawn stretch and he should be running strongly late.

Secondary Choices

Jokestar (6) has to shoulder the high weight of 124 but brings competitive back class and a rider in Pietro Moran who can be aggressive early. If he is left alone on the front end, he could prove stubborn to reel in, though his ability to sustain a strong pace for 12 furlongs is not fully proven.

Tracking Error (3) and Compton (4) are logical underneath players, capable of sitting tactile trips and staying on for minor awards if one of the top pair falters. Happy Strike (2) is more of an outsider but could improve with the added ground if relaxed early.

Selections

Win Forged Steel (1)
Place Parchment Party (5)
Show Jokestar (6)

Betting Strategy and Angles

With a small field, horizontal players can legitimately consider singling Forged Steel (1) if satisfied with his pre race appearance and tote behavior. For verticals, an exacta 1-5 keyed both ways is reasonable, with trifectas 1,5 with 1,5,6 with 1,2,3,4,5,6. Because marathons can produce odd results if pace is misjudged, modest hedges with Jokestar (6) on top are defensible.

5th Race – Allowance Optional Claiming 3 year olds – 6 furlongs

Post Time

Approximate post time is 1:43 PM.

Pace Analysis

This is a high quality allowance optional claiming sprint for three year olds, with several lightly raced colts with upside. Rooster J (1), Two Seven O (2), Special Ops (3), Swung (4), Violence In Red (5), Mcfasty (6), Noble Affair (7), and Canned Heat (8) all have some tactical foot; this is a pace rich race. Expect a sharp opening quarter with at least three to four horses vying for position, making the final furlong a test of stamina at speed.

With no clear, single dominant speed, the race may set up best for a stalker who can sit third or fourth off a contested pace and pounce at the top of the lane.

Key Contenders

Violence In Red (5) from the Steven Asmussen barn, ridden by Keith Asmussen, shapes as a major contender given his likely forward stalking trip and top connections. His ability to sit just off the speed and finish strongly into a hot pace makes him an ideal fit for this configuration.

Noble Affair (7), also for Steven Asmussen but ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., offers a high ceiling as a lightly raced colt who can sit outside the speed and avoid inside traffic. Irad's presence signals confidence and suggests this colt is expected to move forward.

Special Ops (3) under Ramon Vazquez for Rob Atras is another key player; he figures to secure a ground saving stalking trip from his inside mid post and can capitalize if the top Asmussen horses hook up too early.

Secondary Choices

Rooster J (1) for Danny Pish with Erik Asmussen could leverage the rail to secure inside position, and if he breaks sharply he may be within the first two into the turn. Swung (4) and Canned Heat (8) are improving types who can sit just off the leaders and offer strong exotics value if they take another step forward.

Mcfasty (6) and Two Seven O (2) deserve inclusion on deeper tickets; both have the running styles to be in the mix but may be a notch below the top trio on raw ability.

Longshots

Given the competitive nature of the field, no entry is an absolute toss, but the least proven or lowest figure horses may find it difficult to crack the exacta. However, in these three year old allowance races, lightly regarded colts can jump forward suddenly, so horizontal players should avoid being aggressively narrow unless strongly opinionated.

Selections

Win Noble Affair (7)
Place Violence In Red (5)
Show Special Ops (3)

Betting Strategy and Angles

In horizontals, using both Noble Affair (7) and Violence In Red (5) as A horses with Special Ops (3) as a B is a sound structure. Vertically, key 7 over 3,5,1,4,8 in exactas, and use 3,5,7 heavily in trifectas with 1,2,4,6,8 underneath. Given the Asmussen duo, watch the board; if one is hammered significantly more than the other, adjust weighting accordingly.

6th Race – Maiden Special Weight – 6 furlongs

Post Time

Approximate post time is 2:16 PM.

Pace Analysis

This open maiden special has eight runners and a mix of well bred three year olds and older maidens. Pharaohs Ghost (1), Super Happy (2), Trapianto Tom (3), Biloba (5), Prime Power (6), Tan Chulo (7), and Rip Cord (8) all either have or could show early speed, with Dawn At Normandy (4) likely to be more of a mid pack grinder.

Given the number of fresh faces and the high purse, expect a fast and contested pace that rewards horses who can sit just outside the early duel while not losing too much ground.

Key Contenders

Biloba (5) for Ron Moquett with Irad Ortiz Jr. is a standout on paper, uniting a live local barn with a top national rider on a likely well prepared maiden. His mid gate draw and Irad's tactical acumen should allow him to secure an ideal stalking position.

Prime Power (6) from Steven Asmussen with Keith Asmussen aboard has the profile of a well meant maiden who may have needed a prior run or two and is now set to improve. His style should mirror Biloba's, and he may be the main threat.

Rip Cord (8) under Erik Asmussen for Steven Asmussen is another capable runner, though his outside draw may force a wider trip if he breaks only moderately. Still, his combination of connections and likely late kick makes him a key win and exotics candidate.

Secondary Choices

Trapianto Tom (3) from John Sadler with Antonio Fresu is a dangerous shipper, as Sadler does not send many to Oaklawn without intent. If he breaks sharply and handles the track, he could take them all the way or sit on the leaders' hips and strike.

Tan Chulo (7) has prior vet scratch lines but could be live if healthy and properly spotted, particularly with Ramon Vazquez' aggressive riding. Pharaohs Ghost (1) from the rail with Francisco Arrieta may also be live given his scratch watch history and connections.

Longshots

Super Happy (2) and Dawn At Normandy (4) look like longer shots in this competitive field and may need significant improvement to threaten for the win, though they can be used underneath in larger exotics for coverage. Dawn At Normandy (4) may be more attractive stretching out later.

Selections

Win Biloba (5)
Place Prime Power (6)
Show Rip Cord (8)

Betting Strategy and Angles

This is a spot where it is reasonable to lean heavily on Biloba (5) as a potential single in horizontals if the tote confirms his perceived strength. For verticals, consider exactas 5 over 3,6,8 and saver exacta boxes 5-6 and 5-3, with trifectas 5 with 3,6,8 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,8 to capture a longshot underneath.

7th Race – Allowance – 6 furlongs

Post Time

Approximate post time is 2:50 PM.

Pace Analysis

This allowance for older horses features several runners with established sprint form. Practically Dark (1), Osbourne (2), Mish (3), Hola Joey (4), Run Classic (5), Perfect Force (6), and Devil's Tower (7) all possess some level of early speed or tactical pace, making this a race with little chance for a slow early tempo.

Oaklawn's sprint bias towards speed and position suggests the winner will likely come from the first flight, but the number of pace players could create a scenario where the most efficient trip at the stalker level prevails.

Key Contenders

Run Classic (5) has already been identified by some handicappers as a key play on this card and fits the profile of a class and figure standout who can track and finish. With Rafael Bejarano aboard for H. Ray Ashford Jr., his combination of tactical speed and finishing ability positions him as the horse to beat.

Practically Dark (1) for Saffie Joseph Jr. with Irad Ortiz Jr. is another major contender, especially if he breaks sharply and secures the rail position. Irad is excellent at throttling speed and can make this gelding very tough if he gets an uncontested or lightly contested lead.

Perfect Force (6) with Keith Asmussen riding for Steven Asmussen offers an improving four year old profile and a pace pressing style that could be ideal if the inner speed horses engage and soften each other slightly.

Secondary Choices

Osbourne (2) and Devil's Tower (7) are reliable allowance performers who can sit close and pounce, making them strong underneath candidates and fringe win threats with the right trip. Mish (3) and Hola Joey (4) may be better suited for chasing and picking up pieces, but both have enough class to surprise if the race falls their way.

Longshots

Given the quality of the top half of the field, no horse looks completely out of place, but late-running types who concede too much early position may find themselves with too much to do in the lane. The race's profile heavily emphasizes early and tactical speed.

Selections

Win Run Classic (5)
Place Practically Dark (1)
Show Perfect Force (6)

Betting Strategy and Angles

Horizontals can reasonably anchor around Run Classic (5) as a primary A, with Practically Dark (1) as the key backup. Exacta structures like 5 over 1,2,6,7 and saver 1 over 2,5,6 de-risk the race, while trifectas 5 with 1,2,6,7 with all can catch a price underneath if a mid price horse runs into the frame.

8th Race – Allowance – 6 furlongs

Post Time

Approximate post time is 3:24 PM.

Pace Analysis

Race 8 is another strong six furlong allowance with nine entrants. Risk It (1), Dancin For Gold (4), Q B Nine (6), Perfect Magic (7), Itsinmyblood (8), and Shape Note (9) bring various degrees of early speed, while Aaron (2), Miracle Worker (3), and Heart N Soul (5) may be more mid pack.

With multiple speed elements and some horses stretching or cutting back, expect a genuine pace that keeps front runners honest. Tactical stalkers who can sit just off the leaders and launch in the lane will be advantaged.

Key Contenders

Shape Note (9) with Irad Ortiz Jr. for Mike Maker stands out as a capable late running or stalking type from an outside post, giving Irad options to stay clear of traffic while applying pressure at the right time. Maker's record with these types in allowance company at Oaklawn is strong, making Shape Note (9) a major win threat.

Risk It (1) for Steven Asmussen with Keith Asmussen is another key contender, with rail speed that can be dangerous if he breaks sharply and secures the inside. His combination of speed and class makes him likely to be in front or just off the leader into the turn.

Perfect Magic (7), also from Asmussen's barn with Erik Asmussen riding, offers an outside pressing profile that can take advantage if Risk It (1) faces pressure and fades late.

Secondary Choices

Itsinmyblood (8) with Rafael Bejarano and Dancin For Gold (4) with Cristian Torres have the talent and pace to be in the mix, particularly in the second flight. Q B Nine (6) and Heart N Soul (5) offer value as mid price horses who can pick up late pieces and sneak into the frame.

Miracle Worker (3) and Aaron (2) are more fringe exotics candidates unless they show unexpected improvement or benefit from a meltdown.

Longshots

Given the competition from the Asmussen duo and Shape Note (9), horses without strong recent form or clear pace advantages are likely chasing minor shares. However, this is the kind of race where a horse like Heart N Soul (5) could outrun odds if the favorite misfires.

Selections

Win Shape Note (9)
Place Risk It (1)
Show Perfect Magic (7)

Betting Strategy and Angles

In horizontals, use Shape Note (9) and Risk It (1) as primary A types with Perfect Magic (7) as a B. For verticals, exactas 9 over 1,4,7,8 and saver 1 over 7,9,8 are reasonable, with trifectas 9 with 1,4,7,8 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 to capture a potential double digit placer.

9th Race – American Pharoah Overnight Stakes – 1 1/16 miles

Post Time

Approximate post time is 4:02 PM.

Pace Analysis

This overnight stakes for older horses at 1 1/16 miles has eight entrants, including several with tactical or early speed. Winnemac Avenue (1), Tonka Warrior (2), Echo Again (3), Publisher (4), Woodcourt (5), and Classic Car Wash (8) all have enough pace to be within a few lengths early, while Timeout (6) and Prince Of Power (7) may sit a bit farther back.

The configuration of 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn with its relatively short stretch suggests that horses who secure position by the far turn and begin their moves early are best positioned to win.

Key Contenders

Echo Again (3) for Norm Casse with Cristian Torres is a key pace-pressing contender with back class and the right running style for this trip. He should be on or near the lead, making him particularly dangerous if allowed to control moderate fractions.

Classic Car Wash (8) with Irad Ortiz Jr. for Mark Casse is another major player; his outside draw allows Irad to judge the pace and either sit three wide pressing or drop in if the opportunity arises. His proven ability versus stakes caliber company makes him a strong win candidate.

Timeout (6) under Kendrick Carmouche for Bill Mott has a grinding style suited to this distance; if pace pressure is stronger than expected, he could get the perfect second flight trip and grind past late.

Secondary Choices

Winnemac Avenue (1) for James DiVito with Luis Saez has rail speed and could either set or sit just behind the pace, making him a strong early factor. Tonka Warrior (2) and Publisher (4) are reliable types who can sit mid pack and contend for minor awards and perhaps better with ideal trips.

Woodcourt (5) and Prince Of Power (7) are useful horses who may find this company a bit stiff for the win but can absolutely fill out exotics.

Longshots

Given the quality of the top three or four, longshots likely need multiple things to go their way, including a pace collapse or several key contenders underperforming. Focus exotics on horses who are likely to secure good trips rather than extreme closers.

Selections

Win Classic Car Wash (8)
Place Echo Again (3)
Show Timeout (6)

Betting Strategy and Angles

Horizontally, consider using Classic Car Wash (8) and Echo Again (3) as co A types, with Timeout (6) and Winnemac Avenue (1) as Bs. For verticals, key 8 over 1,3,6 in exactas, and use 3,6,8 heavily in trifectas with 1,2,4,5,7 underneath.

10th Race – Allowance – 1 1/16 miles

Post Time

Approximate post time is 4:42 PM.

Pace Analysis

This two turn allowance has nine entrants. Moe Eighty Eight (1), Render Judgment (2), Dr. Storm (3), Mena (4), Viking (6), Dance Some Mo (7), B Sudd (8), and Couperin (9) all have varying degrees of tactical speed, while Dual Monarchy (5) may sit more mid pack or slightly off the pace.

Expect an honest early tempo with a compact field into the first turn, making trip and ground loss critical. Horses who can sit just behind the leaders and launch near the three eighths pole are best suited.

Key Contenders

Couperin (9) with Luis Saez for Jason Cook looks like a logical favorite or near favorite, combining a strong rider with a horse who can sit outside stalking and make an early move. His post allows flexible tactics without getting buried inside.

Mena (4) with Irad Ortiz Jr. for Ron Moquett carries a live profile and should be able to secure a mid pack inside trip before angling out. Irad's strength in two turn dirt races and Moquett's local familiarity make this pair formidable.

Moe Eighty Eight (1) with Ricardo Santana Jr. for John Ortiz offers rail tactical speed and a chance to save every inch of ground. Santana is very comfortable sending from the rail and then rating, which can be a winning formula in these conditions.

Secondary Choices

Dr. Storm (3) from Edgar Espinoza, despite prior scratch lines, has some ability and the right stalker style to be involved. Dual Monarchy (5) and Viking (6) are grinders who could be moving best late if the pace proves more demanding than projected.

Dance Some Mo (7) and B Sudd (8) are usable on deeper tickets as they project to be in the second flight and could work their way into the exotics.

Longshots

Render Judgment (2) may need to step up significantly to beat this group but can be used underneath if the race falls apart or if he improves second off a layoff or similar pattern.

Selections

Win Couperin (9)
Place Mena (4)
Show Moe Eighty Eight (1)

Betting Strategy and Angles

In horizontals, Couperin (9) and Mena (4) are natural A horses, with Moe Eighty Eight (1) and Dr. Storm (3) as Bs. For verticals, exactas 9 over 1,3,4,5 and saver 4 over 1,3,9 are reasonable, with trifectas 9 with 1,3,4 with all to cover potential longshot placers.

11th Race – Oaklawn Mile Stakes – 1 mile

Post Time

Approximate post time is 5:22 PM.

Pace Analysis

The Oaklawn Mile brings together eight quality older horses. Will Take It (1), Neoequos (2), Gun Party (3), East Avenue (4), Full Serrano (5), Coal Battle (6), Nu What's New (7), and Awesome Aaron (8) all have varying degrees of speed or tactical pace. Given the one mile configuration with the auxiliary finish line and shorter stretch, position into the far turn is crucial.

Expect a solid pace with two to three horses vying early, others sitting close, and closers needing to start their moves earlier than usual.

Key Contenders

Nu What's New (7) with Luis Saez for James DiVito looks like a major contender, as he can sit just off the pace from a mid outside gate and attack turning for home. His running style and connections suit this configuration well.

East Avenue (4) with Cristian Torres for Brendan Walsh is another logical win candidate, likely to sit mid pack and make a decisive move around the far turn. Walsh spots horses ambitiously but logically, and this colt fits the profile of a rising stakes horse.

Will Take It (1) with Ricardo Santana Jr. for Dallas Stewart will likely use the rail to secure prominent position, and if he gets loose or only mildly pressured, he could prove tough to run down in the shorter stretch.

Secondary Choices

Gun Party (3) for Steven Asmussen with Erik Asmussen has the class and style to be a factor, especially if he can sit just behind the first flight. Awesome Aaron (8) with Ramon Vazquez and Coal Battle (6) with Corey Lanerie are also capable of making late runs into the exotics.

Neoequos (2) for Saffie Joseph Jr. with Irad Ortiz Jr. merits respect simply on connections and may offer value if overlooked relative to the more obvious names.

Longshots

Full Serrano (5) from John Sadler with Antonio Fresu is not without hope but may be slightly behind the top few on current form and pace dynamics. He is more attractive as a superfecta filler unless the pace scenario breaks perfectly for him.

Selections

Win Nu What's New (7)
Place East Avenue (4)
Show Will Take It (1)

Betting Strategy and Angles

Horizontally, spread somewhat here with 4,7 as main A horses and 1,2,3 as Bs, as this is a competitive stakes with multiple plausible winners. Vertically, exacta boxes 4-7 and 1-7, and trifectas 7 with 1,2,3,4 with all, can capture a solid return if the favorite structure is not too top heavy.

12th Race – Maiden Special Weight – 1 1/8 miles

Post Time

Approximate post time is 6:02 PM.

Pace Analysis

This 1 1/8 mile maiden special for three year olds is a key stepping stone for late developing route types. Bedeviled (1), Banksy's (2), Fleek (3), Mr Fancy Pants (4), Slobberknocker (5), Kelz (6), Silver Shot (7), Wild Cat Curlin (8), Rockfest (9), Rocky Raccoon (10), and Baby Vino (11) create a field with multiple possible pace players, including Bedeviled (1), Banksy's (2), Mr Fancy Pants (4), Slobberknocker (5), Silver Shot (7), and Wild Cat Curlin (8).

Expect an honest but not blazing early pace as riders try to ration energy over nine furlongs. The race should favor horses who can sit third or fourth off the pace and sustain a long run.

Key Contenders

Silver Shot (7) for Steven Asmussen with Irad Ortiz Jr. profiles as the horse to beat, combining elite connections with a likely forward stalking trip. From post 7, Irad can secure a mid outside position and press or sit as needed, which is ideal at this distance.

Wild Cat Curlin (8) with Luis Saez and Dallas Stewart is another key contender, especially if he improves stretching out and can sit close to the pace. His pedigree suits the distance, and Saez excels at getting these types into the race early.

Bedeviled (1) also from Asmussen, with Keith Asmussen riding, offers rail tactical speed and could either set or sit just behind the pace. Given the barn's strength in long maiden routes, he is a major player.

Secondary Choices

Fleek (3) with Rafael Bejarano for Chris Hartman is a logical contender given Hartman's strength in route races and Bejarano's patient style. Kelz (6) with Brian Hernandez Jr. for Kenny McPeek is a classic improving type who may relish added ground.

Banksy's (2), Slobberknocker (5), Rockfest (9), Rocky Raccoon (10), and Baby Vino (11) are mid pack or late runners who could find their way into the exotics with incremental improvement.

Longshots

Mr Fancy Pants (4) from Norm Casse with Cristian Torres may be more of a later developing type and could use this as a stepping stone; he is usable underneath but may need more seasoning. Baby Vino (11) has an outside draw and must work out a trip, making him an exotics stretch rather than a key.

Selections

Win Silver Shot (7)
Place Wild Cat Curlin (8)
Show Bedeviled (1)

Betting Strategy and Angles

Horizontally, Silver Shot (7) is a natural single or primary A, with 1 and 8 as secondary inclusions for protection. Vertically, exactas 7 over 1,3,6,8 and saver 8 over 1,3,7 can be effective, with trifectas 7 with 1,3,6,8 with all to capture value underneath.

13th Race – Arkansas Derby – 1 1/8 miles

Post Time

Approximate post time is 6:48 PM.

Pace Analysis

The Arkansas Derby features nine three year olds, several with early speed and classic aspirations. Redland Rebels (1), Silent Tactic (2), Blackout Time (3), Bricklin (4), Taptastic (5), Renegade (6), Napoleon Solo (7), Exosome (8), and Litmus Test (9) form a field where Silent Tactic (2), Taptastic (5), Renegade (6), and Litmus Test (9) especially project early speed, with others stalking.

Expect a strong, contested pace as connections vie for position in a major Derby prep, which should test stamina in the final furlong.

Key Contenders

Renegade (6) for Todd Pletcher with Irad Ortiz Jr. is a standout, bringing high class connections and a profile suited to the Derby trail. From post 6, he can stalk just outside the main speeds and launch a decisive move around the far turn.

Litmus Test (9) for Bob Baffert with Francisco Arrieta is another key contender, likely to be prominent early from the outside and capable of carrying speed a long way. Baffert's record in these spots is strong, and Arrieta's familiarity with Oaklawn helps.

Taptastic (5) with Erik Asmussen for Steven Asmussen is also a major player, with inside-mid tactical speed and a barn that consistently develops Derby trail horses. He could sit a perfect pocket trip behind Silent Tactic (2) and others.

Secondary Choices

Silent Tactic (2) for Mark Casse with Cristian Torres may be the pace setter or part of the leading group, and if he relaxes, he could hold on longer than expected. Exosome (8) and Napoleon Solo (7) are mid pack types who can benefit if the leaders go too fast early.

Redland Rebels (1) and Blackout Time (3) must negotiate inside posts; if they work out ground saving trips and get room, they can sneak into the exotics. Bricklin (4) is another mid price contender who may be finishing late.

Longshots

Given the likely attention on Renegade (6), Litmus Test (9), and Taptastic (5), mid and long priced runners like Exosome (8) and Napoleon Solo (7) could offer value in trifectas and superfectas, especially if the pace collapses or a favorite underperforms.

Selections

Win Renegade (6)
Place Taptastic (5)
Show Litmus Test (9)

Betting Strategy and Angles

Horizontally, use 5,6,9 as primary A horses, with 2,7,8 as backups in case of pace chaos or trip trouble. Vertically, exactas 6 over 2,5,7,8,9 and saver boxes 5-6 and 6-9 make sense, with trifectas 5,6,9 with 2,5,6,7,8,9 with all to capture a potential price horse in the third or fourth spot.

14th Race – Arkansas Bred Maiden Special Weight – 6 furlongs

Post Time

Approximate post time is 7:24 PM.

Pace Analysis

The nightcap is an Arkansas bred maiden special at six furlongs with eleven entrants. Best Flat Out (1), Whitley (2), Own My Destiny (3), Wolf Tooth (4), Our Vekoma Ride (5), Seventies Music (6), Amore (7), Pistol Padre (8), Sedalia Trail (9), Instamania (10), and Bemis (11) form a field with several likely pace elements, including Best Flat Out (1), Whitley (2), Wolf Tooth (4), Our Vekoma Ride (5), and Instamania (10).

Expect a lively early pace with multiple horses vying for position, which should set things up for a tactical stalker from the middle or outside who can avoid getting pinned on the rail.

Key Contenders

Whitley (2) with Irad Ortiz Jr. for Ron Moquett looks like a major win threat, combining inside speed with a top rider who excels at breaking sharply and controlling tempo. Moquett's familiarity with Arkansas breds and the local surface enhances confidence.

Our Vekoma Ride (5) with Luis Saez for Matt Shirer is another key contender with natural speed and the right rider to secure a pressing outside trip. From mid gate, he can avoid the crush on the rail and still be in the thick of it early.

Bemis (11) with Ramon Vazquez for John Ortiz is a strong outside stalking candidate; his draw allows him to sit a length or two off the leaders and make a wide but momentum filled bid.

Secondary Choices

Wolf Tooth (4) for Terry Eoff with Erik Asmussen has prior also eligible scratch lines but possesses a pace pressing style that fits the race. Instamania (10) with Francisco Arrieta for Tom Van Berg is another live runner from the outside with speed and a capable rider.

Best Flat Out (1), Own My Destiny (3), Seventies Music (6), Pistol Padre (8), and Sedalia Trail (9) are all usable in exotics; many are lightly raced and capable of improvement.

Longshots

Amore (7) with a bug rider Amir Mendoza and prior also eligible scratches may need more experience and better placement to win, but could clunk up for a minor share if several key contenders falter. Sedalia Trail (9) with Joseph Bealmear for Melton Wilson is another longshot exotics possibility.

Selections

Win Whitley (2)
Place Our Vekoma Ride (5)
Show Bemis (11)

Betting Strategy and Angles

In horizontals closing the card, use 2,5,11 as primary A types, with 4,10 as B level protectors. Vertically, exactas 2 over 4,5,10,11 and saver 5 over 2,4,10,11 can be effective, with trifectas 2 with 4,5,10,11 with all to fish for a late card price.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Irad Ortiz Jr. has multiple live mounts today, including Forged Steel (1) in race 4, Noble Affair (7) in race 5, Biloba (5) in race 6, Practically Dark (1) in race 7, Shape Note (9) in race 8, Classic Car Wash (8) in race 9, Mena (4) in race 10, Neoequos (2) in race 11, Silver Shot (7) in race 12, Renegade (6) in race 13, and Whitley (2) in race 14. His ability to secure good position and make timely moves makes his mounts particularly attractive in pace-and-position oriented Oaklawn races.

Luis Saez also has a strong book with Vekoma's Diva (6) in race 3, Parchment Party (5) in race 4, Risk It (1) in race 8, Winnemac Avenue (1) in race 9, Couperin (9) in race 10, Nu What's New (7) in race 11, Wild Cat Curlin (8) in race 12, and Our Vekoma Ride (5) in race 14, providing numerous chances for aggressive, winning rides. Francisco Arrieta, Rafael Bejarano, Ramon Vazquez, and Ricardo Santana Jr. all have multiple live mounts on the card and are particularly effective at Oaklawn in sprints and middle distance dirt races.

Bug riders like Amir Mendoza appear on some live horses, such as Stevie Kicks (1) in race 3, Polar Wolf (6) in race 2, and Amore (7) in race 14, where the weight allowance can matter, but trip and gate skills will be crucial. Cristian Torres and Erik Asmussen also ride several pace-pressing types, which aligns with Oaklawn's track profile.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Steven Asmussen has a major presence across the card, with Violence In Red (5) and Noble Affair (7) in race 5, Biloba (5), Prime Power (6), and Rip Cord (8) in race 6, Perfect Force (6) in race 7, Risk It (1) and Perfect Magic (7) in race 8, Publisher (4) in race 9, Silver Shot (7) and Bedeviled (1) in race 12, and Taptastic (5) in race 13. His runners are frequently well prepared, especially in maiden and allowance company at Oaklawn.

Other key trainers include Todd Pletcher with Renegade (6) in race 13, Norm Casse with Echo Again (3) in race 9 and Mr Fancy Pants (4) in race 12, Mark Casse with Silent Tactic (2) in race 13 and Classic Car Wash (8) in race 9, and Bill Mott with Parchment Party (5) in race 4 and Timeout (6) in race 9. Dallas Stewart has Will Take It (1) in race 11 and Wild Cat Curlin (8) in race 12, both capable of outrunning odds in route races.

Local and regional trainers such as Ron Moquett, John Ortiz, Kenny McPeek, and others are well represented, and their Oaklawn horses often hold a fitness and experience edge over shippers. Paying attention to trainer patterns in route vs sprint placement and surface preferences can uncover value plays where big name barns draw most of the public money.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

On a card this deep, horizontal wagering offers strong opportunities, particularly in sequences centered around the Arkansas Derby and Oaklawn Mile. A late Pick 5 spanning races 10 through 14 could be attacked using Couperin (9), Mena (4), and Moe Eighty Eight (1) in race 10; Nu What's New (7), East Avenue (4), and Will Take It (1) in race 11; Silver Shot (7), Wild Cat Curlin (8), and Bedeviled (1) in race 12; Renegade (6), Taptastic (5), and Litmus Test (9) in race 13; and Whitley (2), Our Vekoma Ride (5), and Bemis (11) in race 14 as primary coverage.

Another attractive multi race play is a middle Pick 4 or Pick 5 anchored by strong opinions in races where the form appears more reliable, such as using Biloba (5) as a single or strong key in race 6 and Run Classic (5) as a key in race 7. In the stakes races, rather than singling in full fields, consider leveraging press tickets where you weight your strongest opinions like Renegade (6) in the Arkansas Derby and Classic Car Wash (8) in the American Pharoah Overnight Stakes while still including backup contenders at lower weight.

From a value standpoint, horses like Perfect Force (6) in race 7, Shape Note (9) in race 8, Timeout (6) in race 9, and Fleek (3) or Kelz (6) in race 12 have the potential to be overlooked and offer overlays relative to their true winning chances, especially in vertical exotics. Watching the tote for shifts, especially on first time starters and shippers, and adjusting play accordingly will be crucial in extracting maximum value from this rich Arkansas Derby Day program.

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