Oaklawn Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the February 19, 2026 card

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Oaklawn Park presents a competitive nine-race card on Thursday, February 19, 2026, as the Hot Springs oval continues its march through the heart of the Classic Meet. First post is set for 12:30 PM CST. The card features a blend of maiden claimers, a maiden special weight for three-year-olds in the third race, a starter allowance going a mile in the fifth, a maiden optional claiming test for fillies in the sixth, and a featured N1X allowance sprint in the eighth. The closer is a $32,000 N2L claiming route at 1 1/16 miles.

Oaklawn has shifted to a Thursday-through-Sunday race week for much of the remainder of the season. The card presents several intriguing wagering opportunities, with a Late Pick 5 beginning in Race 5 that should be the focal point for multi-race exotic players. Field sizes are healthy throughout the card, with 8 to 11 runners in each race, providing depth and competitive value.​

The scratch watch flags a number of horses with recent scratches or trainer changes. Closdatgate (PP8, Race 1) and Moneta (PP2, Race 1) are listed as also-eligibles. Cutting Class (PP11, Race 4) and Our Flat Out (PP8, Race 4) are also also-eligibles. In Race 5, Hess (PP9) and Italian Symphony (PP2) have also-eligible designations, and Speightster Red (PP4) has a veterinarian scratch watch. In Race 9, Giant Moon (PP6) is an also-eligible. Players should monitor the late scratch board closely before finalizing wagers.

Weather and Track Conditions

Thursday looks to be the nicest day of the week in Hot Springs. AccuWeather forecasts a high of 77 degrees with an overnight low of 56 degrees. Afternoon temperatures could approach 80 degrees, making for a warm mid-February day at the track. The most recent weather station report from Hot Springs (as of Monday, February 16) showed clear skies and a temperature of 64 degrees with winds at roughly 9 mph.

No precipitation is expected during the racing hours. Given the dry conditions and warming temperatures, the dirt surface should be listed as fast by post time. The warm, dry weather should create a firm, speed-favoring surface, which plays directly into the track bias profile that has developed throughout the meet. Players should anticipate a legitimate fast track and adjust their wagering accordingly, paying particular attention to horses with early speed in sprints and tactical positioning in routes.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

The 2025-26 Oaklawn meet has produced some clear and exploitable biases that are critical to handicapping today's card.

In dirt sprints at six furlongs, early speed has reasserted its dominance. Roughly 30% of six-furlong races are being won wire-to-wire, with inside-to-middle post positions showing a distinct advantage. Over the most recent two-week sample, early runners went 23-for-44 in dirt sprints. Stalkers had been gaining ground for a time, but early speed has reclaimed the lead in the overall profile, now controlling sprints at a slightly higher rate. Posts 4-6 have been the strongest group in dirt sprints, winning 41% of races overall, with 85 total wins versus 66 for posts 1-3. However, inside runners have been competitive, particularly in smaller fields, and posts 1-3 have continued to chip away at the outside advantage.

In dirt routes at 1 1/16 miles, the picture is different. Stalkers and closers are the preferred running styles, as the long run to the first turn allows outside draws to find position without excessive effort. Posts 1-3 and 7+ each have 26 wins in routes, while posts 4-6 have 25, making the route races much fairer from a positional standpoint. The preference for tactical stalkers and pressers in routes means that horses with two-turn experience who can settle into a comfortable trip and make a sustained move through the lane should be favored in Races 5, 7, and 9.

The key takeaway for today: respect early speed in the six-furlong races (Races 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 8), and look for tactical runners in the two-turn events (Races 5, 7, and 9).

Race 1 — Maiden Claiming — 6 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $46,000

Post Time: 12:30 PM CST

Arkansas-bred maiden claiming for fillies and mares, three years old and upward. Claiming price $40,000.

Pace Analysis

This race lacks a confirmed front-runner, making pace projections somewhat speculative. Moneta (PP2) showed some early interest in her most recent start before being pinched back, and she could attempt to wire this field if given an uncontested lead. Bossoftheblock (PP9) rallied from off the pace in her debut, suggesting she is more of a tactical runner. With no confirmed speed horse, the fractions should be moderate, which could set up for a horse with tactical versatility.

Key Contenders

Bossoftheblock (PP9) is the 6/5 morning line favorite after a strong debut effort. She ran third, beaten less than a length for everything, in a chaotic race where a horse dumped its rider at the break and caused interference. She made an eye-catching run on the outside before idling late. Handicappers universally identify her as a top contender, and her debut Beyer figure supports a winning effort here against this group. The concern is that she is a three-year-old facing older runners early in the season, and many horses at this maiden claiming level fail to back up a big debut. The outside post (9) is not ideal in a sprint, but the lack of early speed may allow her to settle into position without burning energy.

Kava (PP4) is the top choice from one handicapper who notes she is appealing for her racing experience and may be sitting on a peak effort in the third start of her current form cycle. She is a five-year-old mare with the most starts in this field, and at 12-1 on the morning line, she offers significant value if she takes a forward step. The inside-middle post draw is favorable given current biases.​

Secondary Choices

Moneta (PP2) is an intriguing selection. She finished second in her debut on a sloppy course and is dropping from maiden special weight company to maiden claiming. The class relief is significant, and she draws a favorable inside post. If she can break cleanly, she could take this field gate-to-wire given the lack of early speed. Her last race, where she was pinched back and had to steady, can be excused.​

Sweet Baby D (PP6) was second against open foes last out and now gets the benefit of facing Arkansas-breds. She has a reasonable post draw and enough early speed to be forwardly placed.​

Longshots

Menu (PP1) at 15-1 draws the rail, which is favorable in sprints. She has the tactical speed to be involved early, and the rail draw could save her significant ground if she breaks well.

Selections

Win: Moneta (PP2)

Place: Bossoftheblock (PP9)

Show: Kava (PP4)

Betting Strategy

Use Moneta (PP2) and Bossoftheblock (PP9) as the A-level horses in exacta boxes. Key both in the Daily Double with top selections in Race 2. Bossoftheblock will likely be overbet given her visual debut impression, so Moneta at a price represents better wagering value. Single Moneta on top in trifectas and spread underneath with Bossoftheblock, Kava, and Sweet Baby D.

Race 2 — Claiming — 6 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $31,000

Post Time: 1:02 PM CST

Claiming race for four-year-olds and upward. Claiming price $10,000.

Pace Analysis

This race features legitimate early speed. Cape Trafalgar (PP9) is a confirmed front-runner who profiles as Fast Leads. Premium (PP3) also wants the lead and has run his best races on the engine. The presence of two speed horses should create an honest pace, which may set up for a stalker type.​

Key Contenders

Hap Hot (PP7) is the consensus top pick across multiple handicapping sources. He profiles as a Fastest Stalker and can sit just off the pace and pounce. With Cape Trafalgar and Premium likely to duel for the early lead, Hap Hot should get the ideal setup. Ramon Vazquez, who has 40 wins at the meet (11% strike rate), takes the mount. The 5/2 morning line may underestimate him slightly, as the pace scenario sets up perfectly for his running style.

Cape Trafalgar (PP9) is the 2/1 morning line favorite and delivered as the chalk in his local debut, winning a beaten $10K claimer. He is trained by Steven Asmussen and ridden by Erik Asmussen. His front-running style is potent, but the outside post (9) means he will need to use energy to establish position. With Premium also wanting the lead, the pace duel could compromise both.​

Secondary Choices

Premium (PP3) exits a key race at Fair Grounds where subsequent runners from that field came back to win. He was unable to get the lead in starter allowance company last out, but the class drop back to $10K claiming should serve him well. Post 3 gives him inside position to establish the lead, which could be the tactical key if Cape Trafalgar gets away slowly from post 9.​

Ceepeegee (PP4) drops in class after facing tougher fields. He was sharp in four races at Oaklawn last season, winning his final two starts. This is his third start off a layoff, and the Dan Ward barn (12% win rate at the meet) is capable.​

Longshots

Prayforpeace (PP8) at 8-1 has some appeal as a deep closer who could pick up the pieces if the pace duel between Cape Trafalgar and Premium gets hot. Optimal Courage (PP5) has a 38% career win rate and 77% in-the-money rate, though he is 20-1 here against this group.​

Selections

Win: Hap Hot (PP7)

Place: Premium (PP3)

Show: Cape Trafalgar (PP9)

Betting Strategy

Hap Hot is the clear play given the pace scenario. Key him on top in exactas with Premium and Cape Trafalgar underneath. In the trifecta, use Hap Hot and Premium on top with Cape Trafalgar, Ceepeegee, and Prayforpeace filling out the bottom. Use Hap Hot in Pick 3 and Daily Double sequences.

Race 3 — Maiden Special Weight — 6 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $110,000

Post Time: 1:32 PM CST

Three-year-old maiden special weight sprint. This is the highest-purse maiden race on the card and should attract strong wagering interest.

Pace Analysis

Violence In Red (PP2) flashed early speed in his debut. Coming Soon (PP4) showed some tactical speed as well. The pace should be moderate-to-honest, and the configuration favors horses who can be forwardly placed from inside-middle draws.

Key Contenders

Unauthorized (PP1) is backed by multiple handicappers and has the rail draw, which is powerful in Oaklawn sprints. He is a February foal cutting back to one turn, where his best finishes have come. The addition of blinkers is a high-percentage move for Rodolphe Brisset. At 4-1 on the morning line, he offers fair value as a horse who should be forwardly placed from the rail.

Coming Soon (PP4) trained by Ron Moquett (16% win rate at the meet) is another turnback candidate. The last time he sprinted on the main track, he was third to a winner who popped a Beyer of 99. Moquett is the second-leading trainer at the meet, and Luis Saez, a nationally prominent rider, takes the mount.

Violence In Red (PP2) is the top selection from one algorithmic model. He debuted as the lukewarm 7-2 favorite and flashed early speed before checking hard in the final sixteenth, which likely depressed his final figure. He makes sense as a horse to improve in his second start. The Asmussen barn (Steven) has him drawn inside, which is favorable.

Secondary Choices

Circle Me (PP8) is a sneaky contender at 10-1. He ran fourth in his debut at Keeneland at 93-1 odds, clearly outrunning his odds against a respectable field. He bobbled and lost his rider at Churchill in his second start, and his third start on synthetic at Turfway can be excused. The outside draw is a concern, but the field is not overwhelming.​

Hovland (PP3) is a first-time starter for Christopher Davis, whose starters at Oaklawn have performed well. His sire Connect gets 10% debut winners in dirt sprints.​

Longshots

Super Happy (PP6) shows nice works for his debut and is the first foal from an unraced mare. At 15-1 on the morning line, he would need a significant debut effort, but the Briley barn is capable of readying one.​

Selections

Win: Unauthorized (PP1)

Place: Coming Soon (PP4)

Show: Violence In Red (PP2)

Betting Strategy

This is a contentious race with multiple legitimate contenders. Spread in exactas using Unauthorized, Coming Soon, and Violence in Red on top and underneath each other. In the trifecta, use those three on top with Circle Me and Hovland filling out the bottom slots. This race is a spread spot in multi-race sequences.

Race 4 — Maiden Claiming — 6 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $30,000

Post Time: 2:03 PM CST

Maiden claiming for three-year-olds and upward. Claiming price $12,500 (Arkansas-breds at $20,000).

Pace Analysis

Several horses in this field have shown early speed. Joewilly (PP9) typically runs the same race every time, pressing the pace. Into Battle (PP7), shipping in from the Norm Casse barn, could be forwardly placed. The pace should be honest, and the sprint distance favors horses with tactical speed and inside-middle post draws.​

Key Contenders

Capital Connection (PP3) is the consensus pick. He returned from a layoff last out and ran a credible third against steeper company. He is appealing for his consistent nature and should move forward in his second start since June 2024. At 4-1 on the morning line, the price is fair. Post 3 is a strong draw given the sprint bias profile.​

Arky Road (PP2) ran at this level 11 days ago and finished fifth, about a half-length behind Joewilly, making his second start off a layoff. He took a big step forward from his first start back, and the inside post draw is advantageous. He has the look of a horse ready to graduate.​

Joewilly (PP9) was third against similar last out and is a logical choice to repeat that effort. However, he typically runs the same race every time, and his outside post is not ideal. He is useful underneath in vertical exotics but tough to trust on top.​

Secondary Choices

Into Battle (PP7) ships in from the Norm Casse barn, which boasts an 18% win rate at the meet. He is first-time Lasix, which is a notable positive angle. At 12-1 on the morning line, he offers value if the Casse outfit has him ready.​

Good News Rocket (PP4) had notable trouble last out in his first start off the bench. If he can get a clean trip, he has the talent to contend at this level. The Asmussen barn (Steven) is the winningest at the meet by volume.​

Longshots

Irish Guard (PP5) showed speed in his career debut before backing away. He is a three-year-old taking on older horses, but with more experience, the class difference matters less. At 6-1 on the morning line, he is not a true longshot but offers a price.​

Selections

Win: Arky Road (PP2)

Place: Capital Connection (PP3)

Show: Into Battle (PP7)

Betting Strategy

This is a competitive maiden claimer where the favorite may be vulnerable. Use Arky Road and Capital Connection as A-level horses in exacta boxes. Spread trifectas using those two on top with Joewilly, Into Battle, and Good News Rocket underneath. This race closes the Early Pick 5.

Race 5 — Starter Allowance — 1 Mile Dirt — Purse $36,000

Post Time: 2:34 PM CST

Starter allowance for four-year-olds and upward who have started for a claiming price of $10,000 or less. This race opens the Late Pick 5.

Pace Analysis

This route race should see a moderate early pace. Drum Roll Please (PP1) has the tactical speed to be near the front, and Underdressed (PP8) will likely be forwardly placed as well. The one-mile distance with a long run to the first turn means outside draws are not as disadvantaged. Expect the pace to be fair, setting up for stalkers and tactical runners.

Key Contenders

Swiss Guard (PP6) is the top selection from one leading handicapper, who notes he draws a much-improved post over his last start, when he broke from post 12 going a mile and was just edged at this level. The improved post draw is a significant positive, and he has the tactical ability to sit just off the pace and close. The Manley barn and Jaime Torres combination is live.​

Drum Roll Please (PP1) is the 5/2 morning line favorite, but his return to the states after racing at Woodbine raises questions about his current form. He was once a stakes-quality runner (winner of the Jerome in 2024), but injuries derailed his career and he has never come close to recapturing that form. The rail draw is an asset in route races, but he is a risky favorite.​

Secondary Choices

Underdressed (PP8) is back on dirt, the site of his best career Beyer Speed Figure. He makes sense as a runner who can improve surface-to-surface. The Asmussen (Steven) barn and Erik Asmussen in the irons provide reliable connections.​

Speightster Red (PP4) is an eight-year-old gelding making his second local start for Dan Ward. He was shuffled back in his debut here but does his best work when closer to the front end. The post 4 draw should allow him to get a better position early.​

Longshots

Sound Of Victory (PP5) was sharp in his last two races at Remington and is dropping significantly in class. He faced an impossible spot in his last start against N1X allowance runners. This is serious class relief, and Ike Green knows how to place a horse.​

Hess (PP9), if he runs, drew the outside post for his third start of the meet. He struggled at six furlongs last out but is clearly a better two-turn horse. The question is whether this mile distance is long enough for him.​

Selections

Win: Swiss Guard (PP6)

Place: Speightster Red (PP4)

Show: Sound Of Victory (PP5)

Betting Strategy

This is the opening leg of the Late Pick 5 and a critical spot for exotic players. Swiss Guard, Speightster Red, and Sound of Victory all represent value alternatives to the vulnerable favorite Drum Roll Please. Spread in the Pick 5 opener using Swiss Guard, Speightster Red, Sound of Victory, and Underdressed. In standalone exactas, key Swiss Guard on top with Speightster Red, Sound of Victory, Drum Roll Please, and Underdressed underneath.

Race 6 — Maiden Optional Claiming — 6 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $65,000

Post Time: 3:04 PM CST

Three-year-old fillies sprint six furlongs in a maiden optional claiming test. Auction maidens who sold for $75,000 or less, or claiming price $75,000.

Pace Analysis

This field does not have a confirmed front-runner, making the pace scenario somewhat unpredictable. Army's Marauder (PP8) showed early interest in her debut, and Fresh Out (PP1) from the McPeek barn could be forwardly placed. The pace is likely to be moderate, potentially setting up for a horse who can make a tactical move in the stretch.

Key Contenders

Army's Marauder (PP8) ran a promising second in her debut, losing to a runaway winner. The third-place finisher from that race came back to win, providing a strong form reference. Cristian Torres, the second-leading rider at the meet with 62 wins (15%), retains the mount for Christopher Davis. She has come back and worked a sharp half-mile since.

Sissy Sox (PP4) is the only runner entered for the $75K claiming tag, which sometimes signals confidence from the connections. Luis Saez takes the mount for Michael Maker (13% win rate at the meet). She cuts back to one turn after showing speed around two, which can be an effective move. Post 4 is a favorable draw in Oaklawn sprints.

Secondary Choices

Mighty Nora (PP9) was sent off at 7-2 in her last start at Churchill before clipping heels and losing the rider. She has been sidelined since, but her morning workouts for Dallas Stewart are respectable. If she can avoid trouble, she has the talent to win this race. Keith Asmussen, with 31 wins at the meet, takes the mount.​

Intangible (PP2) gets the nod from one handicapper at 5-1 on the morning line. The inside post draw is favorable, and Ron Moquett (16% win rate) is the trainer. Rafael Bejarano, the third-leading rider at the meet with a 19% strike rate, is in the irons.

Longshots

Blondie'sincharge (PP5) is a debut runner for Lindsay Schultz. Her dam was a debut winner, and the three horses she has foaled that made it to the races have all won. Global Campaign gets 12% debut winners in dirt sprints. At 15-1 on the morning line, she is a live longshot if the works translate to the afternoon.​

Selections

Win: Army's Marauder (PP8)

Place: Sissy Sox (PP4)

Show: Intangible (PP2)

Betting Strategy

Army's Marauder is the horse to beat based on her debut form reference. Key her on top in exactas with Sissy Sox, Intangible, and Mighty Nora underneath. Use Blondie'sincharge as a saver in trifectas at a price. In the Late Pick 5, this is a race to use two or three horses maximum.

Race 7 — Maiden Claiming — 1 1/16 Miles Dirt — Purse $40,000

Post Time: 3:35 PM CST

Maiden claiming for three-year-olds and upward at 1 1/16 miles. Claiming price $35,000.

Pace Analysis

This route race should see a moderate pace. Backside (PP6) ships from a sprint to a route, suggesting his connections want him to settle early. Empire Ranch (PP4) has tactical speed. The long run to the first turn at 1 1/16 miles should allow runners to find comfortable positions. Expect a pace that favors stalkers and mid-pack runners, consistent with the route bias at Oaklawn.

Key Contenders

Backside (PP6) goes sprint-to-route, which is a high-percentage move for Brad Cox (21% win rate at the meet, the highest among major trainers). His debut in a $100K maiden claimer at Churchill was unimpressive, but the top two finishers from that race proved they had quality. He is by Union Rags out of a Tiznow mare, suggesting the two-turn trip will suit. Cristian Torres takes the mount.

Empire Ranch (PP4) was roughed up at the start in his last race at Churchill and never got going. His effort two back with $50K maiden claimers going a one-turn mile was much stronger. The class drop to $35K and the stretch to two turns should help. Post 4 is favorable in routes.​

Hard Circle (PP8) makes a rare appearance on dirt after working over the surface at Oaklawn. Luis Saez rides for Michael Maker. At 4-1 on the morning line, he represents a solid contender if his dirt works translate.​

Secondary Choices

Magical Wish (PP5) has lost all three career starts by double-digit lengths, but his opposition was extremely formidable — Gunmetal, Hypnus, and Nu What's New are all stakes-quality runners. The class relief here is enormous. If he improves even moderately, he can contend.​

Bagg O Time (PP2) is well-versed at the 1 1/16-mile distance. He draws an inside post, which is favorable in routes, and at 12-1 on the morning line, he offers a price.​

Longshots

Eleven Bravo (PP9) at 15-1 gets one handicapper's nod. He has been working steadily for the Robert Young barn, and Ronnie Huckaby takes the mount.​

Selections

Win: Empire Ranch (PP4)

Place: Backside (PP6)

Show: Magical Wish (PP5)

Betting Strategy

This is a competitive maiden claiming route where the top four on the morning line are tightly bunched. Spread in exactas using Empire Ranch, Backside, and Hard Circle on top with Magical Wish and Bagg O Time underneath. In the Late Pick 5, use two or three horses.

Race 8 — Allowance — 6 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $125,000

Post Time: 4:07 PM CST

The featured race on the card. N1X allowance for four-year-olds and upward sprinting six furlongs. This is the highest-purse race on the card.

Pace Analysis

This race features some legitimate early speed that could produce a contentious pace. Pokerknightatvees (PP3) has shown speed, and several other entrants can be forwardly placed. A solid pace battle developing in the early stages could set up for a stalker or closer to run them down late. The sprint bias at Oaklawn favors early speed, but when multiple speed horses clash, the door opens for tactical runners.

Key Contenders

Ripped (PP6) is a compelling play in this spot. Once a $650K purchase who appeared to be a bust, he has turned a corner in recent starts. He broke his maiden at Churchill and then won a $75K N2L claimer handily in his local debut. Keith Asmussen should have him sit in midpack and make a run at the leaders in the final furlong. The post 6 draw is in the sweet spot (posts 4-6 win 41% of Oaklawn sprints). He co-owns the field's best last-race Beyer figure and could get an ideal stalking trip.

Classic Time (PP8) ships from Louisiana with Luis Saez in the irons for Norm Casse (18% win rate). He missed time after a tight three-horse photo in the Crescent City Derby, and his return effort was sharp. He is the top choice on one algorithmic model. At 5/2 on the morning line, he should be among the favorites.

Perfect Magic (PP2) is back at Oaklawn, where he placed in a pair of stakes last year. The Asmussen (Steven) barn has him drawn inside. At 7/2, he offers reasonable value as a proven commodity at this track.​

Secondary Choices

Run Jalen Run (PP11) is a five-time winner facing some less-experienced rivals. He draws a wide post (11), which is typically a disadvantage in sprints, but Tyler Bacon (49 wins at the meet, 13%) has the experience to navigate it. At 10-1 on the morning line, he represents value.​

Map To The Stars (PP10) at 8-1 is another price horse worth considering. Ramon Vazquez rides for the Armando Hernandez barn.

Longshots

Tom Cat Tuesday (PP1) at 20-1 draws the rail, which is a significant positive in Oaklawn sprints. He had a veterinarian illness scratch in January and needs to prove he is healthy, but the rail draw alone makes him a saver in trifectas and superfectas.

Curlin's Gesture (PP4) at 20-1 has the class-dropping angle from David Jacobson (13% win rate, 43% top-3 rate).​

Selections

Win: Ripped (PP6)

Place: Classic Time (PP8)

Show: Run Jalen Run (PP11)

Betting Strategy

Ripped represents the best wagering value in the featured race. He may go off at 4-1 or 5-1, and the pace scenario suits him ideally. Key Ripped on top in exactas with Classic Time and Perfect Magic underneath. In the trifecta, use Ripped and Classic Time on top with Perfect Magic, Run Jalen Run, and Map to the Stars filling out the third slot. Use Ripped in the Daily Double with top selections in Race 9.

Race 9 — Claiming — 1 1/16 Miles Dirt — Purse $41,000

Post Time: 4:38 PM CST

The closing race is a $32,000 N2L claiming route at 1 1/16 miles for three-year-olds and upward.

Pace Analysis

Bourbon Society (PP5) has speed and has been a consistent sort. City Of Angels (PP9) can press the pace. The route distance should moderate the pace, and the long stretch at Oaklawn gives closers a chance. However, if Bourbon Society can control the pace from a favorable inside-middle draw, he could prove difficult to catch.​

Key Contenders

Bourbon Society (PP5) is the 2/1 morning line favorite and the best bet of the day from one leading handicapper. He has speed and has been consistent throughout his career. He was flat facing N1X types at Churchill last out, but he was sharper two back at that level in Indiana. This claiming level feels right for him, and the Cipriano Contreras barn (19% win rate at the meet) excels with horses off this type of layoff. Abel Cedillo rides. Post 5 is ideal for routes.

Tyler's Turn (PP8) is the top choice from another analyst. After uninspiring early career races, he came back with a pair of strong efforts at Keeneland and Churchill. He broke his maiden with $20K maidens and ran a credible starter allowance effort at Churchill. Either of those efforts would be good enough to score here. He needs to prove he can handle two turns and rebound from a dull synthetic try at Turfway. Ken McPeek (18% win rate) trains.​

City Of Angels (PP9) was just edged last out at Del Mar. He has the tactical speed to press the pace and could benefit from a ground-saving trip. At 3-1 on the morning line, he offers fair value.​

Secondary Choices

Scottish Storm (PP3) could be sitting on a peak race in the third start of his form cycle. The inside post draw is favorable for a route, and he is a live price at 10-1.​

Major Dax (PP4) at 6-1 has some appeal but has a stewards scratch on his recent record, which is a red flag. Thomas Amoss trains (16% win rate at the meet).​

Longshots

Weaponized (PP2) at 30-1 on the morning line seems too high. His last dirt effort at Churchill was not bad, and he covered too much ground from a wide draw in his most recent two-turn try at Keeneland. He could get a more comfortable trip from post 2, and odds around 12-1 to 15-1 at post time would make him a worthwhile play underneath.​

Devils Fork (PP1) at 12-1 draws the rail, which is valuable in routes. He is a longshot worth including on deeper tickets.

Selections

Win: Bourbon Society (PP5)

Place: Tyler's Turn (PP8)

Show: City Of Angels (PP9)

Betting Strategy

Bourbon Society is the race-day best bet. He has the pace and the connections to control this race from start to finish. Key him on top in exactas with Tyler's Turn, City of Angels, and Scottish Storm underneath. In the trifecta, use Bourbon Society on top with Tyler's Turn and City of Angels in the second slot, and spread to Scottish Storm, Weaponized, and Devils Fork in the third slot. As the final leg of the Late Pick 5, singling Bourbon Society can save significant ticket cost.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Cristian Torres has the heaviest book on the card with mounts in all nine races. He is the second-leading rider at the current meet with 62 wins and a 15% strike rate. His versatility makes him dangerous on any mount, and he has quality assignments with Lord Majesty (Race 2), Unauthorized (Race 3), Joewilly (Race 4), Drum Roll Please (Race 5), Army's Marauder (Race 6), Backside (Race 7), Pokerknightatvees (Race 8), and City Of Angels (Race 9).​

Rafael Bejarano ranks third in the jockey standings with 54 wins and a strong 19% strike rate. He has the mount on Bossoftheblock (Race 1), Intangible (Race 6), Private Show (Race 7), Hogie The Player (Race 8), and Major Dax (Race 9). His high win percentage makes him a player in every race he enters.​

Luis Saez is a nationally prominent rider who brings class to any mount. He has key assignments with Premium (Race 2), Coming Soon (Race 3), Sissy Sox (Race 6), Hard Circle (Race 7), and Classic Time (Race 8). His presence in Race 8 aboard Classic Time is particularly notable.

Ramon Vazquez ranks fifth in the standings with 40 wins (11% strike rate) and is an Oaklawn stalwart. He has solid mounts on Hap Hot (Race 2), Ky Do Declare (Race 4), Sound Of Victory (Race 5), Hallowed Hall (Race 6), and Map To The Stars (Race 8). Hap Hot may be his best chance on the card.​

Keith Asmussen has 31 wins at the meet (11%) and frequently benefits from first call on the Asmussen stable's runners. His mount on Ripped (Race 8) is the standout, and his inside knowledge of the barn's readiness makes him a reliable indicator when the Asmussen horses are live.​

Erik Asmussen, riding for his father's barn, has 27 wins (10%) and takes the mount on Cape Trafalgar (Race 2), Good News Rocket (Race 4), and Underdressed (Race 5).​

Jaime Torres has been an addition to the Oaklawn colony this season, and his mounts include Moneta (Race 1), Hovland (Race 3), Swiss Guard (Race 5), and Nabokov (Race 2). Swiss Guard may represent his best opportunity.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Steven Asmussen is the meet's leading trainer by volume with 46 wins from 500 starts, though his 9% win rate means he burns a lot of chalk. He sends out Cape Trafalgar (Race 2), Violence in Red and Gun Bolt (Race 3), Good News Rocket (Race 4), Underdressed (Race 5), Perfect Magic and Ripped (Race 8). Players should note that backing every Asmussen runner blindly is a losing proposition, but when the barn fires with live stock, the horses are typically well-meant. Ripped and Perfect Magic in Race 8 could both be live.

Ron Moquett ranks second in the trainer standings with 37 wins and a 16% strike rate. He trains Coming Soon and Biloba (Race 3) and Intangible (Race 6). Moquett's horses are always prepared, and his 16% clip makes him one of the more profitable outfits to follow.​

Ken McPeek is third with 28 wins and an 18% strike rate. He sends out Fresh Out and Nuts And Bolts (Race 6), Magical Wish (Race 7), and Tyler's Turn (Race 9). McPeek's 49% top-3 rate is the highest among the meet's leading trainers, making his runners automatic includes in multi-race exotics.​

Brad Cox has the highest win rate among major trainers at 21%. His lone runner on the card is Backside (Race 7), the sprint-to-route horse. When Cox runs one at Oaklawn, he typically means business.​

Cipriano Contreras has 19 wins at a 19% clip. He trains Bourbon Society (Race 9), the best bet of the day. His proficiency with claimers and route runners makes Bourbon Society a high-confidence play.​

Norm Casse maintains an excellent 18% win rate with 10 wins from only 55 starters. He ships Into Battle (Race 4) and Classic Time (Race 8). Both runners are live, and Casse's efficiency makes him one of the most profitable trainers to follow at the meet.​

Christopher Davis trains Hovland (Race 3) and Army's Marauder (Race 6). His runners have performed well at the current meet, and his local presence suggests his morning line horses are well-prepared.​

Dan Ward trains Ceepeegee (Race 2) and Speightster Red (Race 5). He has 10 wins from 83 starters (12%) with a 36% top-3 rate.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The Late Pick 5 (Races 5-9) is the card's primary exotic wagering opportunity. Here is the recommended ticket structure:

Race 5 (Starter Allowance, 1 Mile): Swiss Guard (PP6), Speightster Red (PP4), Sound Of Victory (PP5), Underdressed (PP8). Four horses to cover the vulnerable favorite Drum Roll Please.

Race 6 (Maiden Optional Claiming, 6F): Army's Marauder (PP8), Sissy Sox (PP4), Intangible (PP2). Three fillies who have the best form references and connections.

Race 7 (Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles): Empire Ranch (PP4), Backside (PP6), Hard Circle (PP8). Three contenders in a wide-open route maiden.

Race 8 (Allowance, 6F): Ripped (PP6), Classic Time (PP8). Two A-level runners who should fight out the finish.

Race 9 (Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles): Bourbon Society (PP5). Single the best bet of the day to save ticket cost.

Total combinations on a $0.50 Pick 5: 4 x 3 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 72 combinations = $36.

For the Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5):

Race 1: Moneta (PP2), Bossoftheblock (PP9), Kava (PP4) — three horses.

Race 2: Hap Hot (PP7), Premium (PP3) — two horses.

Race 3: Unauthorized (PP1), Coming Soon (PP4), Violence In Red (PP2) — three horses.

Race 4: Arky Road (PP2), Capital Connection (PP3), Into Battle (PP7) — three horses.

Race 5: Swiss Guard (PP6), Speightster Red (PP4) — two horses.

Total combinations on a $0.50 Pick 5: 3 x 2 x 3 x 3 x 2 = 108 combinations = $54.

Value plays for standalone wagers:

Race 2: Hap Hot (PP7) should offer fair value at 5/2 or better. The pace setup is ideal for his stalking style.

Race 5: Swiss Guard (PP6) at 3-1 on the morning line represents strong value. He was beaten a nose last out from post 12 and gets a much better draw today.

Race 8: Ripped (PP6) at 6-1 on the morning line is the card's best value proposition. He has the running style, post draw, and form to win the featured race at a price.

Race 9: Bourbon Society (PP5) at 2-1 on the morning line is the most reliable win bet on the card. His speed, consistency, and trainer-jockey combination make him the highest-confidence selection on the day.

For Daily Double players, the best value doubles are: Hap Hot (Race 2) with Unauthorized or Coming Soon (Race 3), and Ripped (Race 8) with Bourbon Society (Race 9). The 8-9 double is the best two-race parlay on the card, combining the value play in the featured race with the best bet in the closer.

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