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Welcome to a tremendous Saturday of racing at Oaklawn Park. The eleven-race card is highlighted by the Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes featuring a talented field of older fillies and mares going one mile and one-sixteenth. The card also features competitive allowance optional claiming events and full fields in the maiden and claiming ranks. With large fields throughout the day, including several races with 12 to 14 entrants, the potential for lucrative payouts is high. The rail is out at 0 feet, ensuring a standard configuration for all main track races.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Hot Springs today calls for partly cloudy skies with a high near 52 degrees. Humidity is expected to be moderate with a light breeze from the northwest. There has been no significant precipitation in the last 48 hours. Consequently, the dirt track is listed as Fast. The surface should be tight and conducive to quick times, typical of Oaklawn in February when the moisture content is low.
Track Bias Analysis
Oaklawn Park often favors horses with tactical speed, especially in six-furlong sprints. The rail has been fair recently, but pay close attention to the early races. If the inside path appears deep, horses breaking from the rail in sprints may struggle to hold their position. In route races, the short stretch run at the first wire finish line for mile races can favor speed, but today’s routes are primarily 1 1/16 miles, which allows for a fairer run to the first turn. Watch for horses who can secure a position in the second or third path just off the speed, as they often get the best trip on this surface.
1st Race Analysis
Post Time
12:00 PM CST
Pace Analysis
The day begins with a six-furlong sprint for claimers. Suncroft and Waco appear to be the primary pace factors. Suncroft drops in class and may try to clear from the middle. Waco also possesses early foot. If they engage early, it could set up a stalker.
Key Contenders
Waco draws well in the middle of the gate. Trainer Peter Miller has this gelding spotted competitively for the $40,000 tag. He shows consistent speed figures that fit this level well.
Crew Dragon is a veteran who knows his way around the track. He likely will not be on the lead but should be running late. The distance suits his closing style if the pace is honest.
Secondary Choices
Suncroft takes a significant drop in class. While the drop is sometimes a concern, his back class is superior to this field. If he retains his old form, he is a major threat.
Longshots
Frack Baby is a consistent runner who rarely runs a bad race. He may lack the winning punch of the top contenders but is a must-use in vertical exotics like trifectas and superfectas.
Betting Strategy
Focus on Waco to win. A small exacta box with Crew Dragon and Suncroft is a solid play.
Selections
Win: WACO (6) – 30% confidence Place: CREW DRAGON (9) – 25% confidence Show: SUNCROFT (4) – 20% confidence Alternative: FRACK BABY (1) – 10% confidence
2nd Race Analysis
Post Time
12:31 PM CST
Pace Analysis
This one-mile claiming event features a large field. Winter’s Ghost and Red Mountain have the tactical speed to secure forward positions. With a short run to the first turn at the mile distance, the break is critical.
Key Contenders
Winter’s Ghost is the one to beat. He has been facing tougher company and finds a very soft spot here. His tactical speed should allow him to avoid traffic trouble in this crowded field.
Red Mountain has shown flashes of ability and fits well with these. If he can clear the inside traffic early, he has a strong chance to hold on.
Secondary Choices
Wartime Hero is another dropper who merits respect. His recent form is spotty, but his best race destroys this field.
Longshots
Booming draws the rail. If the rail is good, he could sneak up the inside for a share of the purse at a big price.
Betting Strategy
Winter’s Ghost looks like a potential single in early multi-race wagers. Win bet on Winter’s Ghost.
Selections
Win: WINTER’S GHOST (9) – 35% confidence Place: RED MOUNTAIN (8) – 20% confidence Show: WARTIME HERO (6) – 15% confidence Alternative: BOOMING (1) – 10% confidence
3rd Race Analysis
Post Time
01:01 PM CST
Pace Analysis
A starter allowance at 1 1/16 miles. Tingus Pingus stretches out and should send from the inside. Horse of the Sea also has speed. Expect a moderate pace.
Key Contenders
Horse of the Sea represents the Brad Cox barn. He has been working steadily and fits this condition perfectly. He should sit just off the leaders and pounce on the far turn.
Tingus Pingus is the main speed threat. If he is allowed to set slow fractions, he could wire the field.
Secondary Choices
French Knight will be coming from off the pace. The McPeek trainee should appreciate the two-turn distance.
Longshots
Highly Connected has upside and could improve in his second route attempt.
Betting Strategy
An exacta box featuring Horse of the Sea and Tingus Pingus is the logical play.
Selections
Win: HORSE OF THE SEA (9) – 32% confidence Place: TINGUS PINGUS (1) – 28% confidence Show: FRENCH KNIGHT (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: HIGHLY CONNECTED (10) – 10% confidence
4th Race Analysis
Post Time
01:32 PM CST
Pace Analysis
This is a high-quality allowance race. Track Phantom is a dedicated front-runner. He will go. Classic Car Wash and Sandman will likely stalk him.
Key Contenders
Track Phantom is a graded stakes performer. If he is ready off the layoff, his speed is dangerous. He is the class of the race.
Catching Freedom is a deep closer who will need a pace meltdown. If Track Phantom and the pressers go too fast, he will be the beneficiary.
Secondary Choices
Sandman is consistent and grinds out checks. He is a safe use in horizontal wagers.
Longshots
Sir Greylind loves Oaklawn Park. He often outruns his odds at this track and could split the favorites.
Betting Strategy
This is a key race. A win bet on Track Phantom is warranted, but hedge with an exacta saver on Catching Freedom.
Selections
Win: TRACK PHANTOM (6) – 30% confidence Place: CATCHING FREEDOM (3) – 25% confidence Show: SANDMAN (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: SIR GREYLIND (9) – 10% confidence
5th Race Analysis
Post Time
02:03 PM CST
Pace Analysis
A full field of fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. Overcome Adversity has speed, as does Vino Tiempo. The pace should be honest.
Key Contenders
Overcome Adversity looks poised to strike. She has the speed to clear and the stamina to hold on. The jockey upgrade is a positive sign.
Pronghorn is a threat from the Asmussen barn. She has been running against decent company and fits here.
Secondary Choices
Kerry’s Kiss is a consistent type who usually is in the mix. She is a must-use in trifectas.
Longshots
Gin’s Beach Road could improve with the added distance and is worth a look at a price.
Betting Strategy
Overcome Adversity is a strong win candidate. Play her to win and box her in exactas with Pronghorn.
Selections
Win: OVERCOME ADVERSITY (2) – 28% confidence Place: PRONGHORN (9) – 22% confidence Show: KERRY’S KISS (3) – 15% confidence Alternative: GIN’S BEACH ROAD (4) – 10% confidence
6th Race Analysis
Post Time
02:34 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Sprint for fillies. Severe Clear is very fast. She will likely be the one to catch. Ragtime Sizzle will try to keep up.
Key Contenders
Severe Clear is the one to beat. Her speed figures are superior to this group. If she breaks clean, she is gone.
What’s Her Number drops in class and should be running late. She is the main danger if the pace collapses.
Secondary Choices
Chica Arma is a solid check-earner who picks up the pieces.
Longshots
Ragtime Sizzle has early speed and could hang on for a piece if the favorite falters.
Betting Strategy
Severe Clear is a potential single in the Pick 5 sequences.
Selections
Win: SEVERE CLEAR (1) – 40% confidence Place: WHAT’S HER NUMBER (12) – 20% confidence Show: CHICA ARMA (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: RAGTIME SIZZLE (5) – 10% confidence
7th Race Analysis
Post Time
03:06 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Arkansas-breds sprinting six furlongs. Time Andbeyond and Chromerunner have speed. Natorade adds to the pace scenario.
Key Contenders
Time Andbeyond is a consistent state-bred runner. He should sit a perfect trip just off the speed.
Chromerunner has been running well and draws a good post to save ground.
Secondary Choices
Battleoftheravine is a closer who needs a hot pace. He will be flying late.
Longshots
Natorade is speedy but often fades. He could hold on for third or fourth at a price.
Betting Strategy
Box the top three in exactas. This is a contentious race, so spread in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: TIME ANDBEYOND (1) – 25% confidence Place: CHROMERUNNER (2) – 22% confidence Show: BATTLEOFTHERAVINE (4) – 18% confidence Alternative: NATORADE (3) – 10% confidence
8th Race Analysis
Post Time
03:38 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Route claiming race. Determinedly has speed and class. Yellow Brick will be forward.
Key Contenders
Determinedly drops in class and looks much the best. He has back class that the others lack.
Yellow Brick is in good form and should be the main threat to the top choice.
Secondary Choices
Flying Martini is a consistent grinder who will be running at the end.
Longshots
Hero’s Medal draws the rail and could save ground for a minor award.
Betting Strategy
Determinedly is a standout. Win bet and key him in exactas over Yellow Brick and Flying Martini.
Selections
Win: DETERMINEDLY (3) – 45% confidence Place: YELLOW BRICK (7) – 20% confidence Show: FLYING MARTINI (4) – 15% confidence Alternative: HERO’S MEDAL (1) – 10% confidence
9th Race Analysis
Post Time
04:13 PM CST
Pace Analysis
The Bayakoa Stakes. Nerazurri has speed from the rail. Quietside will be close. Nitrogen will likely stalk.
Key Contenders
Nitrogen is the heavy favorite for a reason. She has graded stakes class and is training well. She is the most likely winner on the card.
Quietside loves this track and is the main alternative if the favorite fails to fire.
Secondary Choices
Nerazurri could get brave on the lead if left alone.
Longshots
Miss Authentic is a deep closer who could clunk up for third.
Betting Strategy
Singling Nitrogen in all multi-race wagers is the recommended strategy.
Selections
Win: NITROGEN (7) – 55% confidence Place: QUIETSIDE (4) – 20% confidence Show: NERAZURRI (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: MISS AUTHENTIC (5) – 5% confidence
10th Race Analysis
Post Time
04:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Allowance sprint. Surveillance is a class act. Baxley has speed. The pace will be fast.
Key Contenders
Surveillance is a graded stakes veteran dropping into allowance company. He should mow them down late.
Inexorable is a strong contender who has been facing tough heads.
Secondary Choices
Baxley has speed but might get cooked in a duel.
Longshots
Ghost of Midnight is consistent and could sneak into the exotics.
Betting Strategy
Key Surveillance in exactas and trifectas.
Selections
Win: SURVEILLANCE (13) – 35% confidence Place: INEXORABLE (9) – 25% confidence Show: BAXLEY (3) – 15% confidence Alternative: GHOST OF MIDNIGHT (2) – 10% confidence
11th Race Analysis
Post Time
05:17 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Maiden claiming sprint. Buckeye Favorite and Divine Celina will take money.
Key Contenders
Buckeye Favorite gets a top jockey and finds a soft field.
Divine Celina drops in class and has speed.
Secondary Choices
Private Speaker has experience and draws the rail.
Longshots
Rose Street is a first-time starter or lightly raced type who could surprise.
Betting Strategy
Spread in the final leg of the Pick 5.
Selections
Win: BUCKEYE FAVORITE (8) – 25% confidence Place: DIVINE CELINA (2) – 20% confidence Show: PRIVATE SPEAKER (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: ROSE STREET (10) – 10% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Cristian Torres continues to be the rider to watch at Oaklawn. He has mounts in almost every race and is particularly dangerous on horses trained by Robertino Diodoro and Karl Broberg, though today he has key mounts for other top barns like David Jacobson in the 10th. When he is on a speed horse, he is very hard to pass.
Francisco Arrieta is riding aggressively and is a good bet on horses that need to be sent from the gate. Look for him to be aggressive on Overcome Adversity in the 5th race.
Luis Saez is a world-class rider who ships in for big days. He is aboard several live runners, including Peignoir in the stakes. His presence often improves a horse’s performance significantly.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Steve Asmussen has a massive entry today. He starts horses in multiple races. His horses often improve in their second start over the track. Watch for his entrants in the maiden and allowance races.
Mark Casse sends out Nitrogen in the Bayakoa. His barn has been firing with stakes horses. When he ships a horse in for a specific race, they are usually ready to run.
Brad Cox is excellent with young horses stretching out. His entrant in the 3rd race, Horse of the Sea, fits this profile perfectly.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Oaklawn card offers excellent opportunities for exotic wagering. The pools are deep, allowing for larger investments in vertical and horizontal wagers.
Value Play of the Day: In Race 6, Severe Clear appears to be a standout speed horse dropping to a level where she can dominate. She will likely be a short price but serves as a key to unlock the Pick 5.
The Late Pick 5 Strategy (Races 7-11): The Late Pick 5 is the premier wager on the card. Here is a recommended structure to take down the pool, focusing on leverage in the 8th and 9th races.
Leg 1 (Race 7): This is the chaos leg. Use 1, 2, 4. These three seem to be the most consistent in a scramble of Arkansas-breds. Leg 2 (Race 8): Determinedly (3) looks like a standout. We will use him as a single to reduce ticket cost. He has the class edge. Leg 3 (Race 9): Nitrogen (7) is the most likely winner on the card. We will single her as well. If she loses, the payout will be massive, but she is the most probable winner. Leg 4 (Race 10): Surveillance (13) is the class, but the post is tricky. We will spread here. Use 3, 9, 13. Leg 5 (Race 11): Maiden claimers are tough. We need coverage. Use 1, 2, 8, 10.
Suggested Ticket Structure ($0.50 Base): Race 7: 1, 2, 4 Race 8: 3 Race 9: 7 Race 10: 3, 9, 13 Race 11: 1, 2, 8, 10 Total Cost: $18.00
This ticket relies on the two strongest opinions on the card (Determinedly and Nitrogen) winning, allowing us to spread in the more difficult legs. If you want to play a backup ticket, consider using Quietside (4) in Race 9 and spreading deeper in Race 7.
