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Oaklawn Park presents a stellar Super Bowl Sunday card highlighted by the $150,000 King Cotton Stakes. The 10-race program features competitive fields, blending allowance-quality runners with hard-knocking claimers. The King Cotton (Race 8) serves as the marquee event, bringing together some of the circuit’s top sprinters, including the formidable Roll On Big Joe, who looks to cement his status as a division leader.
The “Scratch Watch” indicators suggest several runners are returning from recent setbacks or strategic withdrawals. Notably, Durante in the King Cotton was scratched by his trainer in early January and resurfaces here, potentially fresh and ready to fire. Similarly, Sneaky Feet in Race 2 returns after a vet scratch last month, a factor bettors should weigh carefully during the post parade.
Weather and Track Conditions
After a bout of winter weather earlier in the week, conditions have stabilized in Hot Springs. The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies with a high near 54°F. The main track has been playing fast and fair following the maintenance required by the recent freeze.
Track Bias Assessment: The Oaklawn surface has shown a slight versatility in recent days. While speed is always dangerous here, especially in 6-furlong sprints, the rail has been a “golden path” for several winners this week. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. recently exploited this inside bias effectively. However, the track is not strictly a front-runner’s paradise; closers like Tejano Twist have found success when the pace is hot. Watch the early races: if the inside speed is holding, upgrade horses drawing posts 1-4. If runners are winning from the middle of the track, the bias may be neutralizing.
Jockey Notes and Insights
- Ricardo Santana Jr.: “The King of Oaklawn” recently celebrated his 800th local victory. He is riding with extreme confidence, particularly on horses that can save ground along the rail. He pilots Promises to Dance (Race 5) and Joke Maker (Race 6), both of whom benefit from his aggressive rail-skimming style.
- The Asmussen Family: Keith and Erik Asmussen are riding exceptionally well for their father, Hall of Fame trainer Steven Asmussen. The family chemistry is evident in the results. Look for Good News Rocket (Race 1) and Cognizant (Race 6) to be live mounts.
- Cristian Torres: The current meet leader continues to be a reliable force. His decision to stick with Personal Jet in the opener and Rockin Robin in the 6th suggests these mounts are sitting on big efforts.
Trainer Notes and Insights
- Steven Asmussen: The barn is heating up after a brief quiet spell. Asmussen has entries in key spots today, including Bourbon Bash in the King Cotton, a horse that thrives at Oaklawn.
- Chris Hartman: A specialist with sprinters, Hartman sends out Wendelssohn and Tejano Twist in the King Cotton. His ability to have horses peak for specific stakes targets is well-documented.
- Brad Cox: Represented by Uncle Caesar in Race 7, the Cox barn has a high strike rate with horses making their second start off a layoff or cutting back in distance.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
- Best Bet: Race 3 – She’s So Coal (8). This filly has superior speed figures and breeding (sister to a top Arkansas-bred earner) that puts her a cut above this field.
- Value Play: Race 8 – Wendelssohn (3). While Roll On Big Joe will take the money, Wendelssohn offers excellent value. He is back on his preferred surface and distance and has shown he can stalk and pounce.
- The “Asmussen Angle” Daily Double: Consider a Daily Double in Races 1 and 2 linking Good News Rocket (9) and Missing Rocks (1) or Tyler’s Turn (12).
- Exotic Strategy: In Race 8, the King Cotton, key Roll On Big Joe and Wendelssohn in Exactas, but use Tejano Twist in the third spot of Trifectas as he will be running late to pick up pieces.
1st Race
Post Time: 12:00 PM CST
Pace Analysis
The pace in this opener should be honest but not scorching. Southfork (1) and Double Down Magic (10) possess early foot, but Bolt’s Treasure (11) has the tactical speed to sit just off the leaders. Good News Rocket (9) may also show more initiative fresh off the layoff.
Key Contenders
Bolt’s Treasure (11): This 5-year-old gelding is the one to beat. He drops into a comfortable spot after a solid third-place effort against tougher competition. This is his third start of the current form cycle, a statistical peak for many runners. If he can overcome the wide post, he should be right there at the wire.
Good News Rocket (9): The Asmussen/Asmussen combination is deadly at Oaklawn. Although he has been away since July, his work tab is steady. Trainer Steve Asmussen is excellent at bringing horses back ready to fire, and this class level is appropriate for his return.
Secondary Choices
Personal Jet (6): With Cristian Torres aboard, this runner demands respect. He has been inconsistent, but his best effort puts him in the mix for the exotics.
Amentum (14): If he draws into the field from the Also-Eligible list, he is a major player. He has been working towards a win and fits well here.
Longshots
Southfork (1): The rail draw is a significant advantage. If he breaks sharp, he could steal a march on the field and hold on for a share of the purse at a price.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on Bolt’s Treasure. Exacta box: Good News Rocket and Bolt’s Treasure.
Selections
Win: Bolt’s Treasure (11) – 35% confidence Place: Good News Rocket (9) – 25% confidence Show: Personal Jet (6) – 15% confidence Alternative: Amentum (14) – 10% confidence
2nd Race
Post Time: 12:30 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Brilliant Man (7) has shown speed in the past and, with blinkers coming off, may be more relaxed but still forwardly placed. Promissione (2) and Woodspoint (5) will likely push the tempo early.
Key Contenders
Brilliant Man (7): The equipment change (blinkers off) is a key angle here. His maiden win came without the hood, suggesting he prefers a wider field of vision. His speed figures consistently top this field, and he finds a soft group of claimers to beat.
Tyler’s Turn (12): Trained by Kenny McPeek, this runner returns to the dirt, the surface of his lone victory. The outside post is a hurdle at this distance, but he has the class to overcome it.
Secondary Choices
Stoke the Fire (13): Stuck on the AE list, but if he gets in, he is a dangerous contender. He has been facing tougher company and would be a standout in this main body field.
Missing Rocks (1): Another Asmussen runner who gets the rail. He has been disappointing lately but could wake up with the ground-saving trip.
Longshots
Sneaky Feet (14): Returns from a vet scratch on Jan 12. If he is physically right, his best races are competitive here. A risky but potentially rewarding play if the odds float up.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on Brilliant Man. Exacta Key: Brilliant Man over Tyler’s Turn and Missing Rocks.
Selections
Win: Brilliant Man (7) – 30% confidence Place: Tyler’s Turn (12) – 25% confidence Show: Stoke the Fire (13) – 20% confidence Alternative: Missing Rocks (1) – 10% confidence
3rd Race
Post Time: 12:59 PM CST
Pace Analysis
She’s So Coal (8) has speed but cuts back from a two-turn attempt. Tiz in Sight (3) and Big Red Machine (7) also have gas. Expect a contested pace which could set up well for a stalker, but She’s So Coal might just be faster than these.
Key Contenders
She’s So Coal (8): A full sister to Arkansas-bred star Haulin Ice, she has the pedigree and the talent. The cutback to one turn is a potent angle; she showed speed going long and should be able to dominate this group sprinting.
Big Red Machine (7): impressive debut winner who looks to have a bright future. She will likely be the main danger to the favorite, pressing the action from the start.
Secondary Choices
Tiz in Sight (3): A two-time winner in a field of mostly one-race winners. That experience edge counts for a lot at this time of year.
Longshots
Amazing Amanda (9): Mark Casse trainee who has shown flashes of ability. Cristian Torres takes the mount, which is always a positive sign.
Betting Strategy
She’s So Coal is a likely single in multi-race wagers. Try a straight Trifecta: 8 over 3, 7 over 3, 7, 9.
Selections
Win: She’s So Coal (8) – 45% confidence Place: Big Red Machine (7) – 25% confidence Show: Tiz in Sight (3) – 15% confidence Alternative: Amazing Amanda (9) – 10% confidence
4th Race
Post Time: 01:28 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Time for Music (7) and Clocker Special (4) project to be the primary speed. Gaming Wizard (1) should enjoy a ground-saving trip from the rail.
Key Contenders
Time for Music (7): Drops out of stakes company into a realistic allowance spot. The Asmussen trainee has speed and class. If he clears the field early, he could be gone.
Honey’s to Blame (6): McPeek runner stretching back out to two turns, where he has been most effective. He should be running late when the others tire.
Secondary Choices
Our Magical Moon (8): A solid maiden winner at this distance in December. He has proven he handles the track and the trip.
Longshots
Gaming Wizard (1): Gets the rail and could work out a perfect trip sitting just behind the speed. At a price, he is worth including in vertical wagers.
Betting Strategy
Box Time for Music and Honey’s to Blame in the Exacta.
Selections
Win: Time for Music (7) – 30% confidence Place: Honey’s to Blame (6) – 25% confidence Show: Our Magical Moon (8) – 20% confidence Alternative: Gaming Wizard (1) – 10% confidence
5th Race
Post Time: 01:57 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Promises to Dance (6) is very fast and should vie for the lead with Miss Arlington (4). This 6-furlong sprint will likely be run at a rapid clip.
Key Contenders
Promises to Dance (6): Drops in class and possesses the best early speed. Ricardo Santana Jr. stays aboard, which signals intent. She should be on the engine from the bell.
Miss Arlington (4): Ran a huge race off the bench last time. Second off the layoff, she has every right to move forward and could turn the tables on the favorite if the pace duel heats up.
Secondary Choices
Demi (12): Drawn wide, but fits well with this group on speed figures. Ramon Vazquez will need to be aggressive early to avoid getting hung out to dry.
Longshots
Lite It Up Louie (7): Was an also-eligible/scratch on Jan 4. If she runs back to her old form, she is a player at a big price.
Betting Strategy
Win on Promises to Dance. Daily Double wheeling Promises to Dance to Rockin Robin in the next race.
Selections
Win: Promises to Dance (6) – 35% confidence Place: Miss Arlington (4) – 25% confidence Show: Demi (12) – 15% confidence Alternative: Lite It Up Louie (7) – 10% confidence
6th Race
Post Time: 02:26 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Rockin Robin (4) and Dare Greatly (1) look to be the main speed influences. Joke Maker (5) stretches out and could also be forwardly placed.
Key Contenders
Rockin Robin (4): Finished second last out to a very high-quality filly (Search Party). That form line is the strongest in the race. Cristian Torres rides for Mark Casse; this is the day’s “most likely winner” outside of the stakes race.
Dare Greatly (1): Ran into a buzzsaw in Florida named Mythical. Now at Oaklawn with the rail, she is the main threat to the top choice.
Secondary Choices
Joke Maker (5): Stretching out to two turns for the first time. She has a solid foundation of sprints and is bred to handle the added ground.
Longshots
Cognizant (2): Asmussen entry who could improve drastically with the addition of distance. Watch the tote board for signals.
Betting Strategy
Exacta: Rockin Robin over Dare Greatly.
Selections
Win: Rockin Robin (4) – 40% confidence Place: Dare Greatly (1) – 30% confidence Show: Joke Maker (5) – 15% confidence Alternative: Cognizant (2) – 10% confidence
7th Race
Post Time: 02:55 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Hern (5) has tactical speed, as does Uncle Caesar (7). Pappy’s Revenge (12) might have to send from the outside.
Key Contenders
Hern (5): Ran a career-best figure finishing second off the bench last time. He is sitting on a peak performance and finds a winnable spot here.
Uncle Caesar (7): Brad Cox trainee who is always dangerous. He has been consistent and fits the class profile perfectly.
Secondary Choices
Black Powder (1): Draws the rail for Mike Maker. He has faced steeper competition and should appreciate the class relief and ground-saving trip.
Longshots
Slip Mahoney (11): (Note: Check late scratches as he was listed as AE elsewhere). If he runs, he is a back-classer who can pick up pieces late.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on Hern. Trifecta Box: 1, 5, 7.
Selections
Win: Hern (5) – 30% confidence Place: Uncle Caesar (7) – 25% confidence Show: Black Powder (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: Slip Mahoney (11) – 10% confidence
8th Race – King Cotton Stakes
Post Time: 03:27 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Roll On Big Joe (5) has natural speed but doesn’t need the lead. Frost Free (7) and Durante (9) are very fast and will likely ensure a hot pace. Wendelssohn (3) will stalk, while Tejano Twist (6) will be far back early, hoping for a meltdown.
Key Contenders
Roll On Big Joe (5): The class of the field. He won stakes across the country last year and loves this track. He can sit off the speed of Durante and pounce on the turn. He is the rightful favorite.
Wendelssohn (3): The value play. He returns to dirt and 6 furlongs—conditions under which he won the Thanksgiving Classic. He will likely get the jump on the deep closers and could upset the favorite if Joe isn’t fully cranked for his seasonal debut.
Secondary Choices
Tejano Twist (6): A deep closer who never runs a bad race. He needs a pace collapse, which is possible here. He will be flying late.
Bourbon Bash (4): Ran a huge race off the bench for Asmussen. He could sit the perfect trip just behind the speed.
Longshots
Durante (9): If he clears early, he is dangerous. However, the presence of other speed makes his task difficult. The scratch in early Jan is a slight concern, but his best day is good enough.
Betting Strategy
Win bet on Roll On Big Joe. Small win/place bet on Wendelssohn as a saver. Exacta: 5 over 3, 6.
Selections
Win: Roll On Big Joe (5) – 40% confidence Place: Wendelssohn (3) – 25% confidence Show: Tejano Twist (6) – 20% confidence Alternative: Bourbon Bash (4) – 10% confidence
9th Race
Post Time: 03:58 PM CST
Pace Analysis
R Pretty Kitty (2) and Ginger Zip (9) have speed. You’ll Be Back (8) will likely stalk from mid-pack.
Key Contenders
You’ll Be Back (8): Consistent mare who ran well off the layoff. She should move forward here and has the versatility to handle any pace scenario.
Untamed Moment (7): Earned a strong speed figure breaking her maiden. Facing winners is tough, but she looks up to the task.
Secondary Choices
Filly Crystal (12): The wide draw hurts, but she has back class. Cristian Torres aboard is a major plus.
Longshots
One Way Or Another (3): Was AE in a tougher spot recently. Fits better here.
Betting Strategy
Win on You’ll Be Back. Exacta Box: 7, 8.
Selections
Win: You’ll Be Back (8) – 30% confidence Place: Untamed Moment (7) – 25% confidence Show: Filly Crystal (12) – 20% confidence Alternative: One Way Or Another (3) – 10% confidence
10th Race
Post Time: 04:27 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Secret Slew (5) and Miss Chocolatte (12) have speed. In a maiden race for state-breds, expect a chaotic scramble early.
Key Contenders
Secret Slew (5): Faced the talented She’s So Coal (Race 3 favorite) last time. That is the key race on the card. If she runs back to that effort, she wins this.
Miss Chocolatte (12): Also comes out of the She’s So Coal race. The outside post is tricky, but she has speed.
Secondary Choices
Paroli (10): Earned the best last-race speed figure of the group. Must be respected on that number alone.
Longshots
Praise Paulina (1): First-time starter with the rail. In a field of maidens, the inside draw can be a massive advantage if she breaks well.
Betting Strategy
Win on Secret Slew. Daily Double: You’ll Be Back (R9) into Secret Slew (R10).
Selections
Win: Secret Slew (5) – 35% confidence Place: Miss Chocolatte (12) – 25% confidence Show: Paroli (10) – 20% confidence Alternative: Praise Paulina (1) – 10% confidence
