Parx Racing – Pick Pony Daily Horse Racing Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for September 16, 2025

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Parx Racing presents a full card of thoroughbred action on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, with first post scheduled for 12:40 PM ET. The Bensalem, Pennsylvania facility continues its fall racing meet with a competitive slate of claiming and optional claiming events. Racing conditions appear favorable despite some weather concerns in the Philadelphia metropolitan area.

Weather Forecast and Track Surface Conditions

Current weather conditions in the Philadelphia area show mostly cloudy skies with temperatures reaching a high of 75°F. Northeast winds are present at 14 mph with gusts up to 26 mph, while humidity levels stand at 76 percent. The forecast indicates a chance of showers and thunderstorms developing throughout the day, with the possibility of precipitation at 50 percent.

Track conditions are currently listed as Fast for the dirt surface. However, racing officials will monitor conditions closely given the potential for afternoon showers. The track surface has maintained consistent ratings throughout the current meet, providing reliable footing for the horses and connections.

Wind conditions may play a factor in race outcomes, particularly for horses racing on the lead or those making wide moves around the turns. The northeast wind direction could favor inside post positions on a track that typically shows minimal bias under normal conditions.

Race-by-Race Analysis

Race 2

Racing Dudes selections show Bottles at 5-2 morning line odds trained by M L Catalano Jr. and ridden by M Gonzalez.

Race 3

The third race features Mystic Lute at 5-2 odds for trainer M V Pino with D Haddock aboard.

Race 4

Expect to Be Ready draws attention at 3-1 odds for trainer A Velazquez with jockey B L Torres. The moderate odds indicate respect from handicappers while offering potential value.

Race 5

Coach Knight appears as the morning line favorite at 2-1 for trainer J Solis with F Pennington riding.

Race 6 Detailed Analysis

Race 6 at Parx Racing is a $26,000 claiming event for three-year-old and up fillies and mares scheduled for 2:59 PM ET. The race covers six and one-half furlongs on the dirt surface, presenting a competitive field of seven runners in what appears to be a highly contested claiming affair.

Key Contenders Analysis

Denali Rae (Post 6)

The morning line favorite at 3-1 odds, Denali Rae brings strong recent form to this claiming event. Trained by M V Pino and ridden by R Silvera, this Pennsylvania-bred chestnut mare by Danza has shown consistent ability in recent starts. Her connections represent a solid trainer-jockey combination that has found success at the Parx meet. Denali Rae won at Parx on July 16, 2025, demonstrating her affinity for the track surface and distance. The mare’s breeding suggests stamina for the six and one-half furlong distance, and her tactical speed should allow Silvera to secure a favorable position early.

Popover Gal (Post 3)

Listed at 3.5-1 morning line odds, Popover Gal represents strong value in this competitive field. Trainer Jorge Diaz conditions the mare for owner Mayra G. Martinez, with regular rider Kendry Rivera maintaining the mount. Multiple handicapping services favor Popover Gal, including Racing Dudes at 7-2 and Ultimate Capper as their top selection. This consensus support suggests hidden form or recent improvement that may not be reflected in her morning line price. Rivera’s consistent booking on the mare indicates confidence from connections in her current condition.

Sheza Bernardini (Post 4)

Drawing consideration at 4-1 morning line odds, Sheza Bernardini brings tactical versatility to this claiming event. Regular rider Anthony Salgado takes the assignment, representing a stable jockey-horse combination. The mare showed competitive effort when finishing third at Parx on September 1, 2025, earning a $12.60 trifecta payout. Her recent form suggests she remains competitive at this claiming level, though she faces a challenging field with multiple speed types.

Secondary Choices Analysis

Sweet Mischief (Post 7)

At 5-1 morning line odds, Sweet Mischief offers intriguing value as a secondary choice. The mare’s connections have maintained her in competitive claiming company, suggesting confidence in her current form. Her outside post position could prove advantageous if early pace develops, allowing her to settle off the speed and make a late rally.

Mo’s Vino Mesa (Post 5) and Five Star Fran (Post 1)

Both longshots at 8-1 morning line odds present interesting angles for exotic wagering. Mo’s Vino Mesa brings experience at this claiming level, while Five Star Fran’s inside post could provide early positioning advantages if she shows early speed.

Longshot Considerations

Mended We Stand (Post 2)

Also at 8-1 odds, Mended We Stand represents the most intriguing longshot in the field. Her connections may have found the right spot for improvement, and the claiming ranks often produce surprising results when horses drop to their proper level or benefit from equipment changes.

Pace Analysis

The race appears to set up with moderate early pace, as several runners show tactical speed without being pure front-runners. Denali Rae and Popover Gal both possess the ability to secure forward positions without being committed to the early lead. This scenario could favor horses with late kick, particularly if the early fractions become contested.

Sweet Mischief from the outside post could benefit from a pace meltdown scenario, while Sheza Bernardini’s tactical speed allows for multiple trip scenarios. The six and one-half furlong distance provides enough ground for pace dynamics to develop while rewarding horses with stamina for the final sixteenth.

Key Angles to Consider

The claiming level presents opportunities for recent dropdowns or horses returning to their preferred company. Several runners have demonstrated form at Parx specifically, which provides a significant home track advantage. The filly and mare division often produces competitive claiming events where minor form improvements can yield significant results.

Trainer M V Pino’s dual representation with Denali Rae suggests confidence in his string’s current condition. The claiming ranks reward trainers who can spot horses in the proper company, making barn confidence a key handicapping factor.

Wagering Angles and Picks

For win betting, Popover Gal offers the strongest value proposition at her projected odds. The multiple handicapping endorsements combined with modest morning line pricing creates an overlay situation. Denali Rae represents the safest choice but offers limited value at short odds.

In exacta wagering, keying Popover Gal over Denali Rae and Sheza Bernardini provides strong coverage while maintaining reasonable cost. The reverse exacta of Denali Rae over Popover Gal covers the scenario where the favorite validates her short price.

Trifecta combinations should include Sweet Mischief as a potential third-place finisher, as her closing style suits the likely pace scenario. Boxing the top four choices provides comprehensive coverage while maintaining manageable cost.

Suggested Selections

Win: Popover Gal
Place: Popover Gal, Denali Rae
Show: Popover Gal, Denali Rae, Sheza Bernardini

Exacta: Popover Gal over Denali Rae, Sheza Bernardini, Sweet Mischief
Trifecta: Box Popover Gal, Denali Rae, Sheza Bernardini, Sweet Mischief

The competitive nature of this claiming event creates multiple scenarios for exotic wagering success. Popover Gal’s value proposition combined with the tactical advantages of her connections makes her the recommended top selection in Race 6 at Parx Racing.

Race 7 Detailed Analysis

Race 7 at Parx Racing is a $28,000 claiming event for three-year-old and up geldings scheduled for approximately 3:26 PM ET. The race covers six furlongs on the dirt surface, featuring a competitive field of seven geldings in what promises to be one of the more intriguing claiming events on the card. The purse level represents a step up from the earlier claiming races, attracting a solid field of experienced campaigners.

Key Contenders Analysis

Mr. Roundtree (Post 7)

Listed as the morning line favorite at 3-1 odds, Mr. Roundtree brings strong credentials to this claiming affair. Trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Ruben Silvera, this gelding has compiled earnings of $280,680 over 27 career starts with a record of 4-10-21. His running style is characterized as “Slowest Leader,” indicating he prefers to control the early pace without excessive speed. The gelding won his most recent start at Parx over six and one-half furlongs on dirt, demonstrating his affinity for the track surface and approximate distance. However, his modest win percentage of 15 percent suggests he may be vulnerable in competitive spots, despite his tactical advantages from the outside post position.

Nuedorf (Post 2)

Drawing significant attention at 7-2 morning line odds, Nuedorf represents the selection of Racing Dudes handicappers. Trained by Michael V Pino and ridden by Mychel J Sanchez, this gelding has earned $221,300 over 32 career starts with a record of 9-14-18. His 28 percent win rate stands as the highest in the field, indicating consistent competitive ability. Nuedorf’s running style as “Fastest Stalker” positions him perfectly for the likely pace scenario, allowing him to track early leaders while maintaining striking position. The gelding’s recent victory at Parx over six furlongs demonstrates current form, while his inside post position provides tactical flexibility for Sanchez.

Float On (Post 6)

At 4-1 morning line odds, Float On brings solid credentials to this claiming event. Trained by Michelle Castillo and ridden by Abner Adorno, this gelding has compiled earnings of $250,610 over 32 starts with a record of 5-10-19. His running style as “Fastest Stalker” mirrors that of Nuedorf, creating potential early positioning battles. Float On’s recent form includes a fifth-place finish at Penn National over six furlongs, suggesting he may need improvement to compete with this field. However, his 16 percent win rate and 59 percent in-the-money percentage indicate consistent competitiveness at this claiming level.

Secondary Choices Analysis

Ninja Prize (Post 1)

Listed at 9-2 morning line odds, Ninja Prize offers potential value as a secondary choice. Trained by John T Kirby and ridden by Paco Lopez, this gelding has earned $297,690 over 31 starts with a record of 6-13-15. His running style as “Fastest Closer” could prove advantageous if early pace develops, though his recent sixth-place finishes at Parx suggest current form concerns. The rail post position may complicate his preferred closing style, requiring Lopez to navigate traffic in the stretch.

Lucky Dude (Post 4)

At 5-1 morning line odds, Lucky Dude brings extensive experience to this claiming event. Trained by E Padilla-Preciado and ridden by Jorge A Vargas Jr, this gelding has compiled 51 career starts with earnings of $265,043. His running style as “Fast Closer” suggests late-race improvement potential, while his recent ninth-place finish over six furlongs at Parx indicates he may need significant improvement to compete with this field.

Amazing Woo (Post 3)

SportsBetting3 handicappers favor Amazing Woo as their top selection at 5-1 morning line odds. Trained by J Santaella-Calderon and ridden by Ajhari Williams, this gelding has earned $126,700 over 19 starts with a record of 4-9-15. His running style as “Fastest Leads” indicates early speed, though his recent fifth-place finish at Parx over six and one-half furlongs suggests he faces challenges in this competitive field.

Longshot Considerations

Cantaro (Post 5)

At 8-1 morning line odds, Cantaro represents the longest shot in the field. Trained by Silvino Ramirez and ridden by Luis M Ocasio, this gelding brings earnings of $269,820 over 22 starts. His recent victory at Monmouth Park over six furlongs on dirt demonstrates current form, though the class and competition level differences create uncertainty about his chances in this field.

Pace Analysis

The race sets up with Mr. Roundtree likely to establish early position as the “Slowest Leader,” while Amazing Woo provides additional early speed as “Fastest Leads”. This moderate early pace should favor the stalkers, with Nuedorf and Float On positioned to track the leaders and make their moves in the stretch. Ninja Prize and Lucky Dude as closers will depend on pace development to set up their preferred late rallies.

The six-furlong distance provides sufficient ground for pace dynamics to develop while favoring horses with tactical speed over pure closers. The claiming level suggests most runners possess adequate early speed to secure reasonable positions, making trip and jockey tactics crucial factors.

Key Angles to Consider

Trainer Michael V Pino’s success rate of 33 percent win and 66 percent in-the-money with Nuedorf represents the strongest statistical angle in the race. Jockey Paco Lopez’s 24 percent win rate and 61 percent in-the-money percentage aboard Ninja Prize provides another positive connection angle.

The claiming level allows for recent form improvements or equipment changes that may not be reflected in past performances. Several runners have demonstrated recent form at Parx specifically, providing valuable track-specific advantages.

Wagering Angles and Picks

For win betting, Nuedorf offers the strongest combination of recent form, trainer success, and tactical advantages at attractive 7-2 odds. His stalking style and proven ability at Parx make him the logical top choice despite not being the morning line favorite.

Mr. Roundtree deserves respect as the favorite but offers limited value at short odds. His controlling early pace style could prove effective if he can maintain his advantage through the stretch.

In exacta wagering, keying Nuedorf over Mr. Roundtree, Float On, and Ninja Prize provides strong coverage of the most likely scenarios. The reverse combination of Mr. Roundtree over the field covers the favorite’s victory while maintaining reasonable cost.

Trifecta combinations should include Amazing Woo and Lucky Dude as potential third-place finishers, particularly if pace dynamics favor their running styles. Cantaro’s recent victory makes him worth including in deeper exotic combinations at generous odds.

Suggested Selections

Win: Nuedorf
Place: Nuedorf, Mr. Roundtree
Show: Nuedorf, Mr. Roundtree, Float On

Exacta: Nuedorf over Mr. Roundtree, Float On, Ninja Prize, Amazing Woo
Trifecta: Box Nuedorf, Mr. Roundtree, Float On, Ninja Prize

The competitive nature of this $28,000 claiming event creates multiple scenarios for upset potential. Nuedorf’s combination of current form, tactical advantages, and proven Parx Racing success makes him the recommended top selection in Race 7, while the competitive field depth offers strong exotic wagering opportunities across multiple combinations.

Race 8 Detailed Analysis

Race 8 at Parx Racing represents the feature event of the card, a $32,000 Starter Optional Claiming affair for three-year-old and up geldings and colts scheduled for approximately 3:53 PM ET. The race covers one mile on the dirt surface, attracting a competitive field of six seasoned campaigners in what promises to be the most competitive betting race on the card. This represents the highest purse level of the day, drawing quality horses from established connections throughout the mid-Atlantic region.

Key Contenders Analysis

Mad Banker (Post 2)

The morning line favorite at 5-2 odds, Mad Banker brings the strongest recent form to this competitive optional claiming event. Trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Ruben Silvera, this four-year-old gelding has compiled earnings of $309,773 over 25 career starts with a record of 5-8-12. His 20 percent win rate and 48 percent in-the-money percentage demonstrate consistent competitiveness at this level. Mad Banker’s running style as “Fast Leader” positions him to control the early pace from his favorable inside post. His recent form at Delaware Park shows three consecutive fourth-place finishes over one mile on dirt, indicating current fitness while suggesting he may be due for improvement. The combination of trainer Jamie Ness at 25 percent wins and 58 percent in-the-money provides strong statistical support.

Lost and Confused (Post 5)

Racing Dudes handicappers favor Lost and Confused at 3-1 odds, offering value against the morning line favorite. Trained by Philip T Aristone and ridden by Silvestre Gonzalez, this gelding has earned $305,590 over 16 starts with a record of 3-6-9. His 19 percent win rate and impressive 56 percent in-the-money percentage indicate consistent competitive ability. Lost and Confused’s running style as “Fast Stalker” positions him perfectly to track Mad Banker’s early pace while maintaining striking position. His recent form includes victory at Parx over one mile, demonstrating current sharpness and track familiarity. The gelding’s tactical speed allows for multiple trip scenarios, while his proven ability at the distance provides confidence.

Golden Ice (Post 3)

At 3-1 morning line odds, Golden Ice represents an intriguing value proposition. Trained by Benjamin J Dunn and ridden by Francisco Martinez, this three-year-old colt has compiled earnings of $192,770 over 14 career starts with a record of 3-4-8. His 21 percent win rate and exceptional 57 percent in-the-money percentage suggest consistent competitiveness. Golden Ice’s recent victory at Parx over one mile demonstrates current form, while his “Fast Stalker” running style provides tactical flexibility. The colt’s youth advantage in this field of older horses could prove significant, particularly if the pace sets up favorably for his stalking style.

Secondary Choices Analysis

Missouri River (Post 4)

Listed at 7-2 morning line odds, Missouri River brings veteran experience to this optional claiming event. Trained by Michael V Pino and ridden by Paco Lopez, this gelding has earned $151,900 over 16 starts with a record of 4-4-7. His 25 percent win rate leads the field, while his 44 percent in-the-money percentage indicates consistent competitiveness. Missouri River’s recent victory at Parx over one mile demonstrates current form and track affinity. His running style as “Slowest Closer” could prove advantageous if early pace develops, allowing Lopez to time a late rally. The combination of trainer Michael V Pino at 26 percent wins and jockey Paco Lopez at 25 percent wins provides strong statistical support.

Secured Landing (Post 6)

At 5-2 morning line odds according to Equibase, Secured Landing represents another Jamie Ness trainee in the field. Ridden by Mychel J Sanchez, this gelding has compiled earnings of $80,000 over eight starts with a record of 3-5-5. His impressive 38 percent win rate and 62 percent in-the-money percentage suggest significant ability despite limited experience. Secured Landing’s recent victory at Parx over one mile demonstrates current sharpness, while his “Slower Stalker” running style provides tactical options. The outside post position could prove advantageous if he can secure a favorable trip tracking the early pace.

Longshot Considerations

Pando (Post 1)

At 7-2 morning line odds, Pando represents the longest shot in the field despite respectable credentials. Trained by Tony Wilson and ridden by Samuel Marin, this gelding has earned $248,496 over 21 starts with a record of 3-5-7. His recent form includes mixed results at Tampa Bay Downs, suggesting he may need significant improvement to compete with this field. However, his “Fastest Deep” running style could benefit from a pace meltdown scenario, while the rail post position provides early positioning advantages.

Pace Analysis

The race sets up with Mad Banker likely to establish early control as the “Fast Leader” from his inside post position. Golden Ice and Lost and Confused as “Fast Stalkers” should settle just off the pace, creating tactical pressure on the favorite. Secured Landing’s “Slower Stalker” style positions him slightly farther back, while Missouri River as “Slowest Closer” will depend on pace development for his late rally.

The one-mile distance provides ample opportunity for pace dynamics to develop, with the opening half-mile crucial in determining how the race unfolds. If Mad Banker can establish comfortable fractions, his tactical advantage becomes significant. However, if pressed early by the stalkers, the race could set up for Missouri River’s closing kick.

Key Angles to Consider

Trainer Jamie Ness’s dual representation with Mad Banker and Secured Landing suggests strong confidence in his string’s current condition. The trainer’s 25 percent win rate and 58 percent in-the-money percentage provide statistical support for both entries.

The distance factor favors horses with proven one-mile form, giving advantages to Lost and Confused, Golden Ice, and Missouri River based on their recent Parx Racing victories at the distance. Track familiarity becomes crucial in competitive optional claiming events where small margins determine outcomes.

The claiming eligibility aspect allows for horses dropping from higher levels or benefiting from recent condition improvements that may not be reflected in past performances.

Wagering Angles and Picks

For win betting, Lost and Confused offers the strongest value proposition combining recent Parx victory, tactical advantages, and competitive odds. Golden Ice represents solid value at 3-1 given his recent form and youth advantage in the field.

Mad Banker deserves respect as the favorite but offers limited value at short odds despite his tactical pace advantages. Missouri River’s closing style and strong statistical profile make him a viable upset candidate at generous odds.

In exacta wagering, keying Lost and Confused over Golden Ice, Mad Banker, and Missouri River provides comprehensive coverage while maintaining reasonable cost. The reverse combination covers multiple scenarios where the favorite or Golden Ice prevails.

Trifecta combinations should include Secured Landing as a potential third-place finisher given his Jamie Ness training and proven ability at the distance. Missouri River’s closing style makes him dangerous in the bottom portion of exotic wagers if pace develops favorably.

Suggested Selections

Win: Lost and Confused
Place: Lost and Confused, Golden Ice
Show: Lost and Confused, Golden Ice, Mad Banker

Exacta: Lost and Confused over Golden Ice, Mad Banker, Missouri River, Secured Landing
Trifecta: Box Lost and Confused, Golden Ice, Mad Banker, Missouri River

The competitive nature of this $32,000 optional claiming event creates multiple scenarios for exotic wagering success. Lost and Confused’s combination of recent form, tactical advantages, and value pricing makes him the recommended top selection in the feature race at Parx Racing, while the field depth offers strong opportunities for exotic wagering profits across multiple combinations.

Race 9

The closing race is a $25,000 Starter Optional Claiming event. This race features three-year-olds and up competing over six furlongs on the dirt surface. Metalhead draws attention at 3-1 odds for trainer E Padilla-Preciad with A Adorno riding.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Several riders appear prominently on Tuesday’s card. F Pennington rides the race 5 favorite Coach Knight, suggesting confidence from connections in this experienced pilot. M Gonzalez takes the mount on race 2 selection Bottles, while D Haddock partners with Mystic Lute in race 3.

B L Torres aboard Expect to Be Ready in race 4 represents another key riding assignment. The veteran colony at Parx continues to provide competitive balance across the card.

Trainer Notes and Insights

M V Pino sends out runners in multiple races, including Mystic Lute in race 3 and Nuedorf in race 7. This represents solid representation from one of the circuit’s active conditioners.

J Solis conditions race 5 favorite Coach Knight, while A Velazquez prepares Expect to Be Ready for race 4. The training ranks at Parx show typical depth for a competitive regional circuit.

Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Given the competitive nature of the claiming divisions, exacta and trifecta wagering may offer the best value opportunities. The moderate odds ranges suggest fields without overwhelming favorites, creating potential for upset scenarios.

Weather conditions merit consideration for wagering strategies. If rain develops during the racing program, late speed may become more effective as the track surface changes.

Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences could provide value given the competitive nature of most races on the card. Keying shorter-priced horses in races with clear favorites while spreading in more competitive events may prove effective.

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