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Parx Racing in Bensalem, Pennsylvania hosts a ten-race card today with first post at 12:05 PM EST. The card is composed entirely of dirt races across a range of claiming and starter optional claiming conditions, with purses from $18,000 to $32,000 (plus up to 40% Pennsylvania-bred fund bonuses). Distances range from six furlongs to one mile and seventy yards, offering a blend of sprint and route opportunities. The feature race on the card is Race 9, a starter optional claiming event at six furlongs with a $32,000 purse and the deepest field of the day in terms of quality.
Several horses appear on the scratch watch. In Race 1, Fully Committed (PP7) and Real Talented (PP5) are listed as also-eligibles, while Three Point Strut (PP4) is on the stewards list. In Race 2, Mia Counting (PP6) is an also-eligible. Race 4 shows Beyond a Million (PP1) as an also-eligible and Miss Chamita (PP3) on the stewards list. Amazing Woo (PP5) in Race 5 has a veterinarian scratch watch. Everheart (PP8) in Race 6 is on the stewards list. God Is Life (PP7) in Race 7 carries a veterinarian flag from his prior two entries. In Race 10, Augustine Red (PP2) has a veterinarian watch, Fighter Kite (PP1) is on the stewards list, and Hatch (PP10) was an also-eligible previously. Bettors should monitor these scratches closely before committing to wagers.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Bensalem calls for overcast skies throughout the racing program with intermittent sprinkles and light rain. A Dense Fog Advisory was in effect overnight into Wednesday morning until 10:00 AM, which may create visibility issues for the earliest races. Temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper 30s at first post, rising to a high near 42-45 degrees Fahrenheit by mid-afternoon. Humidity will be extremely high, ranging from 81% to 91% through the card. Winds will be light and variable, generally 1-3 mph through the early and middle parts of the card.
Given the overnight fog and chance of rain (60% at morning, tapering to 25-40% by afternoon), the main dirt track is expected to carry significant moisture. The surface will likely be listed as “fast” but could be upgraded to “good” or “sloppy” if heavier rain materializes during the card. The high humidity and persistent dampness suggest a track that will play a tick slower than a sealed fast surface, which could benefit horses with tactical speed who can avoid deep closers grinding through heavy going. Horses with proven wet-track form should receive an upgrade today.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Parx Racing is historically regarded as a speed-favoring surface. Front-runners and pace-pressers enjoy a strong tactical advantage, and wire-to-wire winners are commonplace when a horse can clear the field early and control moderate fractions. This is particularly true in sprint races at six and six-and-a-half furlongs, where early speed is at a premium.
Post position data supports a strong inside bias at this track. In main-track sprints, post 1 has produced roughly 17% of winners, and posts 1 through 4 collectively account for more than 40% of victories. Post 9 is a slight outlier that also performs above expectation, while posts 5 and 8 underperform relative to their opportunity. In route races, post 1 has been particularly strong, producing approximately 20% of winners, whereas post 4 and the far outside posts have been notably weak.
On a day with moisture on the track, the rail and inside paths tend to carry even more advantage at Parx, as the surface nearer the rail often dries first or stays more compacted. Speed on the rail today will be the most dangerous combination across the entire card.
Race 1 — Claiming $7,500, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt, Purse $21,000
Post Time: 12:05 PM EST
Pace Analysis
This route race at 1 1/16 miles should feature a moderate early pace. Three Point Strut (PP4) is profiled as the fastest lead type and should establish early position if he draws in off the stewards list. Coalville (PP8) is a fast stalker who can press the pace from just off the leader. With only one confirmed pure speed horse, the pace is likely to be comfortable, which benefits stalking types and gives the frontrunner a strong chance to control the tempo throughout.
Key Contenders
Coalville (PP8) is the 5/2 morning line favorite and the consensus top selection for this opener. This six-year-old gelding has earned $223,535 in career purses with a 2-9-13 record from 23 starts, giving him a 57% in-the-money rate. He ran second last out going a mile at Parx and has a prior win at 6.5 furlongs at this track. His fast-stalking style is ideal for the expected pace scenario, and he should sit comfortably behind whatever speed establishes itself before making his move on the turn. The concern with Coalville is that he has only two career wins from 23 starts, indicating he is more of a horse-for-course type who hits the board rather than wins outright. Jockey Joezer Rangel has been riding at a 29% win clip recently and is a positive.
Three Point Strut (PP4) at 3/1 is listed on the stewards scratch watch, so his availability is uncertain. If he runs, he gets the significant advantage of apprentice jockey Yan Rodriguez’s five-pound weight break, bringing his impost down to 117 pounds — the lightest in the field. He is the confirmed speed of the race and could control the tempo gate-to-wire on a track that favors front-runners. His career numbers show 2-3-8 from 22 starts, including form over the Parx surface. The drop to the $7,500 level with a jockey who can save weight makes him a genuine threat.
Secondary Choices
Real Talented (PP5) at 4/1 morning line is also an also-eligible and may not draw in. If he does, he brings a mid-pack running style and the best career win rate in the field at 19% (4-7-7 from 21 starts), including a win going a mile at Laurel. Trainer Silvino Ramirez has been hitting at 17% with a 61% in-the-money rate, making this barn one of the more reliable on the card. Jockey Luis M. Ocasio would need to find a ground-saving trip from the middle of the pack.
Fully Committed (PP7) at 6/1 has the highest algorithmic win probability (29%) among the confirmed runners per one model, despite also being listed as an also-eligible. He is a fast stalker type with 28 career starts and consistent form, running in the money 39% of the time. Jockey Andrew Wolfsont has been riding at a 9% win rate but has a 27% in-the-money rate.
Longshots
Sheer Dominance (PP3) at 8/1 has a win over this 1 1/16-mile distance at Parx in his most recent start, which is a significant form line. He carries top weight at 125 pounds and has a slow-closing running style that typically does not benefit on the speed-favoring Parx surface. However, if the track plays wet and deep, closers could get more of a chance.
Exclusive Dancer (PP2) at 8/1 is profiled as the fastest closer in the field and has hit the board in 41% of his 29 career starts. He is winless in his last several outings at Parx and would need a pace collapse to factor.
Selections
Win: 8 Coalville
Place: 4 Three Point Strut (if draws in)
Show: 7 Fully Committed (if draws in)
Betting strategy: The scratch watch makes this race tricky. If the field stays at eight, play Coalville in straight win bets. If the field is reduced, exacta boxes with Coalville on top of whichever speed is left (Three Point Strut or Real Talented) offer value. A small trifecta box of 8-4-7 or 8-5-7 depending on who draws in is the play.
Race 2 — Maiden Claiming $16,000/$20,000, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $22,000
Post Time: 12:32 PM EST
Pace Analysis
The pace setup is favorable for Candothis (PP7), who is the fastest leader in the field, and Act of Faith (PP8), who is a fast-leads type. These two should establish position early from their outside posts. Zen Dreams (PP5) is profiled as the fastest closer and will need to stalk from mid-pack and make a sustained move through the turn. With two confirmed speed types, the pace should be honest but not destructive.
Key Contenders
Zen Dreams (PP5) is the 3/2 morning line favorite and rightfully so. She is trained by Jamie Ness, the perennial leading trainer at Parx who maintains a 23-27% win rate at the track. Ness combined with jockey Frankie Pennington (15% win rate, 41% ITM) gives this filly a powerful connections edge. Zen Dreams has compiled a 0-4-6 record from 15 maiden starts with $163,270 in earnings, indicating she has been knocking on the door consistently without breaking through. Her two most recent starts were runner-up finishes going 1 1/16 miles at Laurel, and the step back to maiden claiming at Parx could be the class relief she needs to graduate. The one concern is a 0-for-15 maiden record; she has been the bridesmaid too many times.
Candothis (PP7) at 5/2 has Mychel Sanchez in the saddle, the leading rider at Parx with a 25% win rate and 66% in-the-money clip. This five-year-old mare has a 0-4-4 record from eight starts with 50% in the money. She is the fastest leader in the field and could dictate terms throughout on the speed-favoring Parx surface. The Scott Lake barn is not having its best season (6% win rate recently), but the jockey upgrade to Sanchez is significant.
Secondary Choices
Act of Faith (PP8) at 3/1 morning line has finished in the money in four of her six career starts (67%), the best ITM rate in the field. She is a fast-leads type trained by Jacinto Solis with jockey Dexter Haddock. Her third-place finish in her most recent start at 6.5 furlongs at Parx was a solid effort, and the stretch to one mile could benefit her stalking style.
Longshots
Refined Elaine (PP2) at 15/1 has been running second and third at this one-mile distance at Parx in recent starts. At a generous price, she could complete an exacta or trifecta underneath the main contenders. The Howard R. Brown Jr. barn, while small, has historically produced overlay winners at Parx.
Selections
Win: 5 Zen Dreams
Place: 7 Candothis
Show: 8 Act of Faith
Betting strategy: Zen Dreams should be used as a single in the first leg of any multi-race wagers. The exacta with 5 over 7 and 8 is the primary play. If you want longshot value in the trifecta, add Refined Elaine (PP2) in the third slot.
Race 3 — Claiming $12,500, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $23,000
Post Time: 12:59 PM EST
Pace Analysis
This is a seven-horse sprint field where no single horse shows dominant early speed. Byebyejealouseye (PP4) and Rozzyroo (PP1) are both profiled as slower leaders, while Calisa (PP2) is the fastest deep closer. The pace is projected to be slow to moderate, which should set up a wire-to-wire scenario for whichever horse breaks alertly from the gate. On the speed-favoring Parx surface, the early leader should have a tactical advantage throughout.
Key Contenders
Byebyejealouseye (PP4) is the 2/1 morning line favorite from the Scott Lake barn with apprentice Yan Rodriguez saving five pounds down to 117. She has a 1-2-4 record from 11 starts with her best effort a third last out at 6.5 furlongs at Parx. The Lake/Rodriguez combination is price-conscious, and the weight break is real at this claiming level. If she can secure the lead from her mid-draw, the speed-favoring surface should do the rest.
Rozzyroo (PP1) at 5/2 draws the rail, which is a significant advantage in Parx sprints where post 1 produces 17% of winners. Jockey Julio Hernandez rides at a 20% win rate and 54% ITM. She showed a runner-up effort at Penn National and has a win at 6 furlongs. The rail draw with a speed-pressing style is an ideal combination today.
Secondary Choices
Sweet Distraction (PP7) at 9/2 has the most earnings in the field ($241,615) but is a slowest closer type, which works against her on the Parx surface. She stretches back to six furlongs after a pair of efforts at longer distances.
Calisa (PP2) at 5/1 is the fastest deep closer in the field and showed a runner-up effort at Parx previously. Jockey Angel Castillo has been riding at an 11% win rate with a solid 48% ITM.
Longshots
Laughing Lady (PP6) at 6/1 has the highest algorithmic win probability (26%) per one model despite her relatively thin form. She has a win at 5.5 furlongs at Finger Lakes and the stretch to six furlongs at Parx is within range.
Selections
Win: 1 Rozzyroo
Place: 4 Byebyejealouseye
Show: 2 Calisa
Betting strategy: The rail draw gives Rozzyroo a genuine edge over the favorite. Play Rozzyroo on top of the exacta over Byebyejealouseye and Calisa. A small win bet on Rozzyroo at what should be a fair price is warranted.
Race 4 — Claiming $5,000, 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt, Purse $18,000
Post Time: 1:26 PM EST
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario in this low-level claiming route for fillies and mares is fairly straightforward. Hi Heeled Warrior (PP7) is the fast leader, and Thegoddessofsnakes (PP6) is profiled as the fastest closer. Beyond a Million (PP1) and Miss Chamita (PP3) are both fast stalkers, though both are on the scratch watch. If the field is reduced, the pace could be quite soft, benefiting the speed types.
Key Contenders
Thegoddessofsnakes (PP6) is the 3/2 morning line favorite and the consensus top pick across handicapper sources. This eight-year-old mare has lifetime earnings of $457,380 with a 3-12-20 record from 48 starts and a 42% ITM rate. She is the class of the field but has only a 6% career win rate, meaning she is more reliable for underneath positions than on top. Jockey Abner Adorno rides at a 10% win rate but has been in the money at 55%. The concern is that she ran fifth of five last out at one mile at Parx.
Hi Heeled Warrior (PP7) at 5/2 is the second choice and has the highest career win percentage in the field at 21% (8-11-19 from 38 starts). She is the confirmed early speed and has shown third in her last two starts going a mile at Parx. Jockey Angel Castillo aboard gives her a capable rider, and the fast-leader profile is ideal for the Parx main track.
Secondary Choices
Miss Chamita (PP3) at 7/2 is on the stewards scratch watch. If she runs, her 6-20-26 record from 51 starts shows a mare who hits the board often (51% ITM). She ran second last out going a mile here and has consistent form at this level.
Longshots
Obstinate (PP2) at 15/1 has the highest algorithmic model score (24/51/80) and won going a mile at Parx in her third-most-recent start. She has six career wins from 35 starts and has earned $223,430. The 15/1 morning line is extremely generous for a horse who has won at this exact distance and surface. She could be the play to beat at this price.
Selections
Win: 7 Hi Heeled Warrior
Place: 6 Thegoddessofsnakes
Show: 2 Obstinate
Betting strategy: Hi Heeled Warrior as the speed in a race where the pace should be soft offers the best win opportunity. Use Thegoddessofsnakes underneath in exactas. The overlay play is Obstinate at 15/1 in trifecta and superfecta positions.
Race 5 — Claiming $5,000, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $18,000
Post Time: 1:53 PM EST
Pace Analysis
This nine-horse sprint has a contested pace scenario. Yo Yo Candy (PP6) is the fastest leader, and Magicnthemoonlight (PP9) is a fast leader as well. With two confirmed speed types, the pace should be honest and could set up for a stalking type like Dither (PP2) or Amazing Woo (PP5) to run at them late. However, on the Parx speed track, a duel between two leaders often results in one of them holding on rather than both collapsing.
Key Contenders
Yo Yo Candy (PP6) is the 5/2 morning line favorite with a 21% career win rate (4-7-9 from 19 starts). He is the fastest leader and benefits from Daniel Velazquez as trainer, one of the historically hottest conditioners at Parx. Jockey Ramon Moya has a modest 9% win rate but a strong 47% ITM rate. This horse ran second last out at 6 furlongs at Parx and third before that at Penn National, showing current form.
Amazing Woo (PP5) at 7/2 is on the veterinarian scratch watch, so his availability is uncertain. If he runs, he is a fastest stalker type with 16% career win rate and an exceptional 68% ITM rate (4-9-17 from 25 starts). The Scott Lake barn sends him out with Jean Aguilar, and this horse should sit the perfect trip just behind the speed duel.
Secondary Choices
Dither (PP2) at 4/1 is a fast stalker type with jockey Andrew Wolfsont, who has been riding at a 17% win rate recently. Dither has placed second in two of his last three starts and has four wins from 25 career starts. The Jorge Diaz barn has been solid at an 11% win rate.
Magicnthemoonlight (PP9) at 5/1 is the other speed type with a strong career resume of 7-17-21 from 35 starts and $476,136 in career earnings, the highest in the field. He gets the five-pound apprentice weight break with Yan Rodriguez. The Scott Lake barn has two entries in this race (Amazing Woo and Magicnthemoonlight), which could mean one is more intended than the other.
Longshots
Persistent Danger (PP4) at 6/1 has the steadiest career form with 6-12-18 from 34 starts and $261,620 earned. He gets the lightest weight in the field at 115 pounds with apprentice Bryan Torres. He is a slower leads type who could grind along the rail and outlast the main speed if the pace gets contentious.
Selections
Win: 6 Yo Yo Candy
Place: 2 Dither
Show: 9 Magicnthemoonlight
Betting strategy: Play Yo Yo Candy to win if he is 5/2 or better. Key him in exactas over Dither and Magicnthemoonlight. If Amazing Woo draws in off the vet list, he becomes a serious contender in second or third position of trifectas.
Race 6 — Claiming $7,500, 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt, Purse $21,000
Post Time: 2:20 PM EST
Pace Analysis
This eight-horse route for fillies and mares should see moderate early fractions. Don’t Post It (PP2) is a slower leader type, and Battling Time (PP5) is the fastest stalker. La Grotte (PP3) is the fastest closer. Without a confirmed pure speed type, the pace should be soft, setting up for a gate-to-wire scenario from whoever breaks sharpest.
Key Contenders
Lino and Me (PP7) is the 3/1 morning line favorite and top-ranked in one algorithmic model. She is trained by Hugo Padilla (24% win rate) with jockey Andy Hernandez, who has been riding at a 31% win rate — the highest clip among any rider with key mounts today. Lino and Me has a 3-5-9 record from 21 starts with $112,412 earned. She won her second-most-recent start going a mile at Parx and ran second before that, showing strong current form at the distance.
Battling Time (PP5) at 4/1 has the highest career win percentage in the field at 24% (4-7-10 from 17 starts) with a 59% ITM rate. She is the fastest stalker and benefits from jockey Angel Rodriguez, who has been firing at a 27% win rate with a 66% ITM clip. The Juan Carlos Guerrero barn has been cold at 9% wins, which tempers enthusiasm slightly.
Secondary Choices
La Grotte (PP3) at 5/1 is trained by J. Tyler Servis (16% win rate, 53% ITM) with Abner Adorno riding. She is the fastest closer in the field and won at 6 furlongs at Finger Lakes in her third-most-recent start. The stretch to one mile and seventy yards could be a question, but her connections inspire confidence.
Faytastic (PP4) at 6/1 has three career wins from 19 starts and has shown form at this level. She got a third last out going 6 furlongs at Parx and is stepping back up in distance. Jockey Francisco Martinez has been steady at 15% wins.
Longshots
Everheart (PP8) at 6/1 is on the stewards scratch watch. If she runs, she gets a five-pound apprentice break with Kendry Rivera down to 117 pounds. She placed second and third in her last two starts going a mile at Parx, showing consistent form at the distance.
Selections
Win: 7 Lino and Me
Place: 5 Battling Time
Show: 3 La Grotte
Betting strategy: The Hernandez/Padilla combination is very live here. Play Lino and Me to win and key her in exactas over Battling Time and La Grotte. A trifecta box of 7-5-3 is a solid play.
Race 7 — Claiming $7,500, 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt, Purse $21,000
Post Time: 2:47 PM EST
Pace Analysis
This ten-horse route for four-year-olds and upward has a wide-open pace scenario. Rocket Night (PP3) is the fastest leader, and Saucy Ham (PP10) is the fastest stalker. Lookin Wild (PP9) is a mid-pack leads type. Multiple horses want to press from off the pace, which could create a contested middle of the race. The pace should be honest, and the horse with the best late kick should benefit from a distance that favors grinders.
Key Contenders
Rocket Night (PP3) is the 5/2 morning line favorite with the highest model probability (20/41/62). He is the fastest leader in the field and benefits from the jockey/trainer combination of Andy Hernandez (31% win rate) and Hugo Padilla (24% win rate), the same power duo backing Lino and Me in Race 6. Rocket Night has a 1-10-16 record from 29 starts with $314,184 earned, giving him by far the most earnings in the field. His 55% ITM rate demonstrates extreme consistency. He ran fourth last out at 1 1/16 miles and second before that at one mile — solid route form at Parx.
Lookin Wild (PP9) at 7/2 won going a mile at Parx in his second-most-recent start and ran third at 1 1/16 miles last out. He is a mid-pack leads type with a 1-4-6 record from 14 starts. Jockey Jean Aguilar has a low win rate (7%) but has been in the money with this horse in recent starts.
Secondary Choices
Saucy Ham (PP10) at 5/1 is the fastest stalker and has a 1-5-6 record from 12 starts with a 50% ITM rate. He placed second in each of his last two starts at 6 furlongs at Parx and steps up in distance today. The Ilias Tapsas barn has been steady. He also ran in the money in a 1-mile route at Parx previously.
God Is Life (PP7) at 6/1 has a veterinarian scratch watch from multiple prior entries, making his status questionable. If he runs, he showed second last out going a mile at Parx and has the Julio Rodriguez barn (25% win rate, 62% ITM).
Longshots
Marchin Into April (PP5) at 6/1 ran second at 1 1/16 miles at Parx last out and gets the five-pound apprentice break with Yedsit Hazlewood. The Josue Arce barn is steady, and the recent form at the distance is a strong indicator.
Selections
Win: 3 Rocket Night
Place: 9 Lookin Wild
Show: 10 Saucy Ham
Betting strategy: Rocket Night with Hernandez/Padilla should be used as a key horse in multi-race wagers. In this race, key him in exactas over Lookin Wild and Saucy Ham. In a ten-horse route, trifecta value is available with a 3-9-10-5 key box.
Race 8 — Starter Optional Claiming $16,000, 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt, Purse $26,000
Post Time: 3:14 PM EST
Pace Analysis
This is the best race on the early half of the card in terms of quality. Atrocious (PP2) is profiled as the fastest leads type and should establish early position. Gotta Guy (PP1) is a fast stalker who can press from the rail. Light My Way (PP6) is a mid-pack leader who won last out. The pace should be honest with Atrocious on the lead and Gotta Guy pressing, which could set up for a closer like Morethanafeeling (PP3) or Light My Way.
Key Contenders
Gotta Guy (PP1) at 5/2 morning line has the highest algorithmic win probability at 21% and draws the rail, the strongest post position in Parx routes (20% win rate from post 1). He is trained by Hugo Padilla (24% win rate) with Andy Hernandez (31% win rate) aboard. His career record of 3-5-6 from 13 starts includes a win going a mile at Parx and he ran fourth and sixth in his last two at this track and distance. The rail draw on a wet day with these connections makes him extremely dangerous.
Light My Way (PP6) at 7/2 has the highest career win percentage in the field at 29% (2-4-5 from 7 starts) with a remarkable 71% ITM rate. He won last out going a mile at Parx and ran second before that. Trainer Alfredo Velazquez has been one of the most profitable trainers at Parx historically, and jockey Silvestre Gonzalez rides at a 20% win rate. This horse is lightly raced at just seven starts and could have significant upside.
Secondary Choices
Atrocious (PP2) at 3/1 is the confirmed speed and has the highest career earnings in the field at $311,895. He won last out at Parx going a mile and has placed in the money at a 57% clip from 21 career starts. Jockey Angel Rodriguez (27% win rate) is a strong booking. The concern is that he went from a win to a sixth-place finish to a fourth in his recent sequence, suggesting inconsistency.
Morethanafeeling (PP3) at 9/2 has Frankie Pennington up for trainer J. Tyler Servis, a reliable combination at Parx. He ran second last out going a mile here and has an 11% win rate but 53% ITM from 19 starts. He is a mid-pack stalker who should benefit if the speed types tire late.
Longshots
War Commander (PP4) at 15/1 is trained by Julio Rodriguez (25% win rate, 62% ITM) and won going a mile at Parx in his second-most-recent start. He is the slowest deep type in the field, which typically does not win at Parx, but the Rodriguez barn is one to watch at any price.
Selections
Win: 1 Gotta Guy
Place: 6 Light My Way
Show: 2 Atrocious
Betting strategy: Gotta Guy on the rail with Hernandez/Padilla is the play. Key him in exactas over Light My Way and Atrocious. Morethanafeeling can be added as a trifecta saver. Light My Way at 7/2 also offers value as a win alternative given his strong connections and lightly raced profile.
Race 9 — Starter Optional Claiming $25,000, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $32,000
Post Time: 3:41 PM EST
Pace Analysis
This is the feature race of the card and the best race in terms of class. Shadow Surge (PP2) is profiled as slowest leads, while Liberte de Bayeux (PP1) is a fast leader from the rail. Okie Den Den (PP6) is a mid-pack leads type. The pace should be contested with multiple horses wanting early position, which could set up for a closer like Chance (PP5) or A Votre Sante (PP7). On the Parx speed surface, though, a contested pace does not always collapse — sometimes the pressers just hold form.
Key Contenders
Shadow Surge (PP2) is the 5/2 morning line favorite trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Mychel Sanchez, the top jockey-trainer combination at Parx. He has a 33% career win rate (3-4-4 from 9 starts) with $140,380 earned. His most recent start was a disappointing 11th of 12 at Aqueduct going 7 furlongs, but his prior start was a win at 6.5 furlongs at Parx. The Ness/Sanchez combination should be given the benefit of the doubt in a step back to Parx, where this horse has shown his best form.
Chance (PP5) at 3/1 is the richest horse in the field with $283,136 in career earnings and a 4-10-15 record from 26 starts (58% ITM). He won his last two starts going 1 1/16 miles at Laurel, making him sharp and fit. He is the fastest closer in the field, and his recent form at a route distance raises the question of whether the cutback to six furlongs is ideal. He has shown 7-furlong form at Laurel that suggests he can handle the sprint.
Secondary Choices
Liberte de Bayeux (PP1) at 7/2 draws the rail, which is a premium position in Parx sprints. He is also trained by Jamie Ness with Frankie Pennington up. His career record of 3-7-11 from 14 starts shows an incredible 79% ITM rate. He ran second last out at 6.5 furlongs at Parx and second before that at one mile. The rail with Ness/Pennington makes this horse a prime exacta contender.
Okie Den Den (PP6) at 6/1 won last out at 6 furlongs at Parx and gets the five-pound apprentice break with Yedsit Hazlewood. He is trained by J. Guadalupe Guerrero, who has been running at a 28% win rate with a 58% ITM clip. His mid-pack leads style should put him in the right position if the frontrunners tire.
Longshots
A Votre Sante (PP7) at 6/1 won at 6.5 furlongs at Parx in his second-most-recent start and ran third last out. He is a mid-pack stalker with Ruben Silvera aboard and could round out trifectas at a reasonable price.
Biagio (PP8) at 20/1 is trained by J. Guadalupe Guerrero (28% win rate) and won at 6 furlongs at Parx in his second-most-recent start with Dexter Haddock riding. At 20/1, he offers significant exotic value underneath.
Selections
Win: 2 Shadow Surge
Place: 1 Liberte de Bayeux
Show: 5 Chance
Betting strategy: This race has enormous exotic potential with two Ness trainees in the top three slots. Play a Shadow Surge/Liberte de Bayeux exacta box. Key Shadow Surge in trifectas over Liberte de Bayeux, Chance, and Okie Den Den. For value seekers, Biagio at 20/1 is a trifecta/superfecta bomb.
Race 10 — Claiming $7,500, 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $20,000
Post Time: 4:08 PM EST
Pace Analysis
This eleven-horse nightcap is the largest field of the day and features several speed types. Macaw (PP6) is a fast leads type, and Liberty Star (PP9) is the fastest leads type. Fast Bob (PP8) is profiled as the fastest deep type. With multiple horses wanting the front end, the pace could be contested, which benefits mid-pack types like Augustine Red (PP2) and Hatch (PP10). In a large Parx sprint field, the inside posts and stalking types have the best statistical advantage.
Key Contenders
Augustine Red (PP2) is the 3/1 morning line favorite, though he carries a veterinarian scratch watch. If he runs, he brings a 4-6-17 record from 29 starts with $292,377 earned and a 59% ITM rate. He showed third in his last two starts at 6.5 furlongs at Parx. Jockey Jorge Vargas Jr. has been riding at a 21% win rate. The post 2 draw is strong in Parx sprints, and this horse should sit a comfortable stalking trip.
Hatch (PP10) at 4/1 is trained by Jamie Ness with apprentice Yedsit Hazlewood, getting the five-pound weight break down to 117. He has a 5-15-20 record from 46 starts with $384,436 earned. His last two starts were runner-up finishes at 5.5 furlongs at Laurel, and the Ness barn switching him to Parx with a proven jockey is a positive move. The concern is the far outside post 10, which does not have strong historical win rates in Parx sprints.
Secondary Choices
Lord Winsalot (PP7) at 5/1 has Mychel Sanchez (25% win rate) for Michael Pino (30% win rate), the hottest jockey-trainer combination at Parx. Pino has been running at an absurd 40% win clip in recent months, and any horse from this barn deserves serious attention. Lord Winsalot won at 6.5 furlongs at Parx in his second-most-recent start and has a 15% career win rate from 46 starts.
Liberty Star (PP9) at 6/1 has the most career wins in the field (12 from 48 starts) with $432,781 earned. He is the fastest leads type and won going 6.5 furlongs at Parx in his third-most-recent start. Jockey Abner Adorno has been consistent, and this horse always factors in the pace at this level.
Longshots
Pogi (PP5) at 6/1 has the highest career earnings in the field at $553,646 and has shown third in his last two Parx starts. With Dexter Haddock aboard and the J. Guadalupe Guerrero barn (28% win rate), he could factor at a reasonable price.
Macaw (PP6) at 8/1 has a 42% career win rate (5 of 12 starts), far and away the highest in the field. He is a fast leads type who won his last two races at Parx and Finger Lakes. He flopped last out going 7 furlongs at Parx, but the cutback to 6.5 furlongs could produce a bounce-back effort.
Selections
Win: 7 Lord Winsalot
Place: 2 Augustine Red (if clears vet)
Show: 10 Hatch
Betting strategy: The Sanchez/Pino combination with Lord Winsalot offers the best value against a vulnerable favorite in Augustine Red who has the vet scratch cloud over him. Play Lord Winsalot to win at a fair price. Key Lord Winsalot in exactas over Augustine Red and Hatch. In this large field, the superfecta is the play: 7 over 2-10-9-6.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Andy Hernandez has three key mounts today: Gotta Guy (Race 8, PP1), Rocket Night (Race 7, PP3), and Lino and Me (Race 6, PP7). He is riding at a blistering 31% win rate with a 53% ITM clip, making him the hottest rider on the grounds. All three of his mounts are trained by Hugo Padilla, and this combination has been one of the most profitable at Parx. Any Hernandez/Padilla entry should receive automatic respect.
Mychel Sanchez is the leading rider at Parx with a 25% win rate and 66% ITM rate. He has two key mounts today: Candothis (Race 2, PP7) and Shadow Surge (Race 9, PP2). Sanchez has also been the national wins leader during certain stretches of his career. He is particularly dangerous in maiden claiming events and should be singled in Race 2 and Race 9.
Frankie Pennington rides at a 15-21% win rate and has key mounts for Jamie Ness: Zen Dreams (Race 2, PP5), Morethanafeeling (Race 8, PP3), and Liberte de Bayeux (Race 9, PP1). The Pennington/Ness connection is one of the strongest on the circuit.
Angel R. Rodriguez has been riding at a 26-27% win rate with a 66% ITM clip. He has two mounts: Atrocious (Race 8, PP2) and Battling Time (Race 6, PP5). Both are horses with early tactical speed, which suits the Parx surface.
Yan Rodriguez is an apprentice jockey whose five-pound weight break makes several horses competitive: Three Point Strut (Race 1, PP4), Byebyejealouseye (Race 3, PP4), and Magicnthemoonlight (Race 5, PP9). He has been riding at an 11-12% win rate, and the weight concession is the real asset.
Yedsit Hazlewood is another apprentice whose five-pound break applies to Marchin Into April (Race 7, PP5), Okie Den Den (Race 9, PP6), and Hatch (Race 10, PP10). He is riding at a 16-24% win rate and has been a reliable bug boy at Parx.
Abner Adorno has a full book of mounts today including Thegoddessofsnakes (Race 4, PP6), La Grotte (Race 6, PP3), El Cordobes (Race 8, PP5), and Liberty Star (Race 10, PP9). He rides at a 10-16% win rate with a strong 47-55% ITM rate, making him a reliable underneath jockey for exotics.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Jamie Ness is the dominant trainer at Parx, leading the standings with a 23-27% win rate and having won six consecutive training titles at this track. He also leads the national standings for wins most years. Today he sends out three key runners: Zen Dreams (Race 2, PP5), Shadow Surge (Race 9, PP2), and Liberte de Bayeux (Race 9, PP1), along with Hatch (Race 10, PP10). Having two runners in the feature Race 9 gives Ness a significant advantage, and at least one should factor heavily. His maiden claimers with the right jockey are especially dangerous.
Michael V. Pino has been the single hottest trainer at Parx in recent times, winning at a 30-40% clip. He sends out Lord Winsalot (Race 10, PP7) with Mychel Sanchez, and this entry should be given serious weight. The Pino barn has been the most profitable to follow at this meet.
Hugo O. Padilla has been winning at a 24% rate with a 48% ITM clip. He has three runners today, all with Andy Hernandez: Lino and Me (Race 6, PP7), Rocket Night (Race 7, PP3), and Gotta Guy (Race 8, PP1). This trio represents the backbone of a potential multi-race parlay that could produce a very profitable afternoon.
Scott A. Lake has been running at an 11-14% win rate but has a large stable presence at Parx. He has several entries today including Atrocious (Race 8, PP2), Byebyejealouseye (Race 3, PP4), Amazing Woo (Race 5, PP5), Magicnthemoonlight (Race 5, PP9), and This Run’s for You (Race 10, PP11). His horses often run competitively at low odds.
J. Tyler Servis has been hitting at a 16% win rate with a 53% ITM clip. He has La Grotte (Race 6, PP3) and Morethanafeeling (Race 8, PP3), both of whom figure prominently in their respective fields.
J. Guadalupe Guerrero has been one of the more profitable barns at Parx with a 28% win rate and 58% ITM. He trains Okie Den Den (Race 9, PP6) and Biagio (Race 9, PP8), along with Pogi (Race 10, PP5). His horses often outperform their morning lines.
Julio Rodriguez runs a small barn but at a potent 25% win rate with 62% ITM. He has War Commander (Race 8, PP4) and God Is Life (Race 7, PP7). Both are longshots on the morning line but carry the connections to outrun their odds.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The morning line suggests several races where the public choice is beatable, offering genuine overlay opportunities.
Race 1 presents uncertainty with three horses on the scratch watch. If the field stays at eight, Coalville at 5/2 is a fair price to win. If the field is reduced to five or six, he will likely go off much lower and loses wagering appeal. Wait for scratches before committing.
Race 2 offers the most solid single of the day in Zen Dreams (PP5) at 3/2. The Ness/Pennington combination with a filly who has hit the board in 10 of 15 career starts is difficult to beat. She should be singled in multi-race sequences.
Race 3 is a spot where Rozzyroo (PP1) on the rail at 5/2 offers value against Byebyejealouseye (PP4), who may not justify even-money or lower. The rail is a huge advantage in Parx sprints.
Race 4 features Obstinate (PP2) at 15/1 as the best longshot value play on the card. She has won at this distance at Parx and her model scores are competitive with the top choices.
Race 5 has Yo Yo Candy (PP6) as a solid favorite, but Magicnthemoonlight (PP9) at 5/1 offers more wagering value given his superior career earnings and the apprentice weight break.
Race 8 presents the best exacta opportunity of the card. Gotta Guy (PP1) on the rail with Hernandez/Padilla against Light My Way (PP6), who has won 29% of his career starts and is lightly raced. A Gotta Guy/Light My Way exacta could pay handsomely.
Race 9 is the card’s feature and the Pick 5 anchor race (Races 6-10). Shadow Surge and Liberte de Bayeux from the Ness barn should both be used. An all-Ness exacta in Race 9 is a distinct possibility.
Race 10 offers Lord Winsalot (PP7) at 5/1 with the Sanchez/Pino combination, the hottest jockey-trainer duo at Parx. If Augustine Red scratches from the vet list, Lord Winsalot could be the new favorite.
For multi-race wagering, the Late Pick 5 (Races 6-10) is the prime vehicle. Use Lino and Me (Race 6), Rocket Night (Race 7), Gotta Guy and Light My Way (Race 8), Shadow Surge and Liberte de Bayeux (Race 9), and Lord Winsalot and Hatch (Race 10). This produces a manageable ticket with strong opinions and potential for a significant payoff.
The Pick 4 (Races 7-10) can be structured similarly with Rocket Night as a single in Race 7, Gotta Guy and Light My Way in Race 8, Shadow Surge and Liberte de Bayeux in Race 9, and Lord Winsalot, Augustine Red, and Hatch in Race 10. A $1 Pick 4 ticket with this structure runs $12 and offers exposure to several races with genuine contenders.
Daily Doubles across the card should focus on Race 6/7 (Lino and Me to Rocket Night), Race 8/9 (Gotta Guy to Shadow Surge), and Race 9/10 (Shadow Surge to Lord Winsalot). The Hernandez/Padilla runners in consecutive races (6, 7, 8) offer a rare opportunity to parlay a hot combination across three straight races.
