Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Welcome to a cold Monday afternoon at Parx Racing. We have a 10-race card on tap to kick off the week, headlined by a competitive Allowance Optional Claiming event in Race 9 with a purse of $52,000. The card is heavy on claiming action, providing plenty of betting opportunities for those looking to find value in the lower-level ranks. The “Scratch Watch” indicates several horses are returning from recent vet or steward scratches, so pay close attention to the tote board for late movement.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast: Bensalem, PA is expecting a cold winter day. Temperatures are hovering in the high 30s to low 40s. Track Condition: Fast. Surface Analysis: The Parx dirt surface in the winter months often tightens up, favoring speed, especially on the inside. However, with the freeze-thaw cycle common in February, the track can sometimes play deeper than expected. Watch the early races; if the rail is dead, outside closers will become the play of the day.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
- 6 Furlongs: The inside three posts historically have a higher win percentage, but if the rail is heavy, the “Parx 2-path” (running just off the rail) becomes the golden highway.
- 1 Mile 70 Yards: The short run to the first turn makes inside position crucial. Horses drawing posts 8 or wider often get hung out to dry unless they have exceptional early speed to clear the field.
- 6 1/2 Furlongs: A specialized distance at Parx. The chute allows for a fairer run, but outside posts (6-9) can actually have a tactical advantage, allowing riders to see the pace develop before committing.
1st Race
Post Time: 12:05 PM Distance: 6 Furlongs Class: Maiden Claiming $10,000
Pace Analysis
In this bottom-level maiden claimer, pace is often erratic. Pop Neigh (2) and Stinger Bee (3) have shown flashes of early foot. Pastero (1) from the rail will likely be sent hard by Haddock to avoid getting shuffled back. Expect a contested early pace which might set it up for a stalker.
Key Contenders
Stinger Bee (3): This 5-year-old gelding gets the services of top rider Mychel Sanchez for the Robert Mosco barn. In a field of inconsistent maidens, the jockey upgrade is significant. He should sit just off the pace and pounce. Pastero (1): Training under the Scott Lake banner, this runner draws the rail. Lake is a master at getting these lower-level claimers to fire, and Dexter Haddock is an aggressive gate rider. If he breaks clean, he’s the one to catch.
Secondary Choices
El Tamalero (12): Drawing the far outside in a field of this size can be tough, but Francisco Martinez stays aboard. If the inside gets cluttered, he can swoop late. Week’s Strong (10): Trained by J. Tyler Servis, this one adds blinkers or changes tactics frequently. Look for improvement today.
Longshots
Alphadini (11): A price play from the Daniel Velazquez barn. Often overlooked, but at this level, any horse with a pulse has a shot.
Betting Strategy
The rail horse (1) and the Sanchez mount (3) look like the class of the race.
Selections
Win: Stinger Bee (3) – 35% confidence Place: Pastero (1) – 25% confidence Show: El Tamalero (12) – 15% confidence Alternative: Week’s Strong (10) – 10% confidence
2nd Race
Post Time: 12:32 PM Distance: 7 Furlongs Class: Claiming $7,500 (N2L)
Pace Analysis
Joyful Joyce (4) and Sister Marjorie (7) look to be the primary speed. At 7 furlongs, stamina comes into play late. If they duel too hard, it opens the door for a closer like To Be Loved by You (1).
Key Contenders
Sister Marjorie (7): Mychel Sanchez rides for Michael Pino. This is a high-percentage trainer/jockey combination. She has the tactical speed to clear the inside traffic and dictate terms. Saint Grace (8): Miguel Rodriguez sends this filly out. She fits well at this restricted $7,500 level.
Secondary Choices
To Be Loved by You (1): Drawing the rail at 7 furlongs is tricky, but she saves ground. If the rail is good, she’s a major threat. Joyful Joyce (4): Likely to be part of the early pace scenario.
Longshots
Purple Lu Lu (2): Ruben Silvera takes the mount. A dangerous jockey for a longshot.
Betting Strategy
7 furlongs is a specialist distance. Stick with the Pino/Sanchez duo.
- Win: 7
- Double: 7 with 1, 6 (Race 3)
Selections
Win: Sister Marjorie (7) – 40% confidence Place: Saint Grace (8) – 20% confidence Show: To Be Loved by You (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: Joyful Joyce (4) – 10% confidence
3rd Race
Post Time: 12:59 PM Distance: 6 Furlongs Class: Starter Optional Claiming $25,000
Pace Analysis
Huggy (6) and Possum (2) are the speed. Cap Steak Robbery (1) has speed from the rail but might get pinned. Expect a fast pace.
Key Contenders
Huggy (6): Butch Reid Jr. is a patient trainer who places his horses well. With Sanchez aboard, this horse is a prime candidate to sit second and take over at the top of the lane. Possum (2): Julio Hernandez rides for Guadalupe Preciado. Has early zip and the inside draw to utilize it.
Secondary Choices
Big Z Og (7): Kathleen Demasi’s entry. Look for this one to be closing if the pace melts down. Mo Says (4): Ricardo Chiappe rides for Bruce Kravets. Consistent check earner.
Betting Strategy
Huggy (6) looks solid here.
- Win: 6
Selections
Win: Huggy (6) – 45% confidence Place: Possum (2) – 25% confidence Show: Big Z Og (7) – 15% confidence Alternative: Cap Steak Robbery (1) – 10% confidence
4th Race
Post Time: 01:26 PM Distance: 1 Mile 70 Yards Class: Starter Optional Claiming $16,000
Pace Analysis
The two-turn mile at Parx favors inside speed. El Cordobes (1) and Light My Way (2) have the best draws. Morethanafeeling (8) will have to work hard from the outside to clear.
Key Contenders
Light My Way (2): Trained by Alfredo Velazquez. This horse has the tactical speed and the post position to control the race. Morethanafeeling (8): Frankie Pennington and Tyler Servis are a potent team, but the post is a major hurdle. If he clears, he wins; if he gets hung wide, he fades.
Secondary Choices
Encrypt (3): Philip Aristone puts Sanchez on. A ground-saving trip is likely. Tested (4): Stablemate to Encrypt, ridden by Vargas. Aristone has a strong hand here.
Betting Strategy
Box the Aristone runners with the Velazquez speed.
- Exacta Box: 2-3-8
Selections
Win: Light My Way (2) – 30% confidence Place: Morethanafeeling (8) – 25% confidence Show: Encrypt (3) – 20% confidence Alternative: Tested (4) – 10% confidence
5th Race
Post Time: 01:53 PM Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Class: Maiden Claiming $15,000 (PA Bred)
Pace Analysis
Young fillies going 6.5 furlongs. Craving Carbs (1) and Samantha’s Capo (7) should show interest.
Key Contenders
Samantha’s Capo (7): Michael Pino is excellent with young claimers. Ajhari Williams gets the call. Catrina Zar (2): Luis Ocasio rides. An inside draw helps in a field that might lack direction.
Secondary Choices
Just Fancy Free (9): Trained by Melecio Saldana Guerrero. The outside post is a plus at this distance. Turn On Twiss (6): Coming off a steward’s scratch recently, so check the physical condition.
Betting Strategy
Tread lightly in low-level maiden races.
- Win/Place: 7
Selections
Win: Samantha’s Capo (7) – 30% confidence Place: Just Fancy Free (9) – 20% confidence Show: Catrina Zar (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: Turn On Twiss (6) – 10% confidence
6th Race
Post Time: 02:20 PM Distance: 6 Furlongs Class: Claiming $5,000
Pace Analysis
A large field of 16 (expect scratches to get down to 12). Sheza Bernardini (1) and Mexican Sugar (2) will likely go. This race will be chaotic.
Key Contenders
Sheza Bernardini (1): Sanchez and Pino again. From the rail, she has to go. If she breaks, she’s the one to beat. La Grotte (6): Tyler Servis/Adorno. Dropping to a competitive level.
Secondary Choices
Bon Fire Diva (15): If she draws in from the AE list, she’s a contender. Hot Fudge Warrior (13): Another wide draw, but fits on class.
Longshots
Awesome Annmarie (4): A 9-year-old veteran. She knows the game better than anyone else in the field.
Betting Strategy
Sheza Bernardini (1) is the logical favorite but offers low value. Look to the outside for price horses if they draw in.
Selections
Win: Sheza Bernardini (1) – 35% confidence Place: La Grotte (6) – 20% confidence Show: Awesome Annmarie (4) – 15% confidence Alternative: Mexican Sugar (2) – 10% confidence
7th Race
Post Time: 02:47 PM Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Class: Claiming $10,000
Pace Analysis
Mac Daddy Too (9) and Backside Buzz (10) are aggressive speed horses drawn outside. They will have to send hard, potentially burning each other out. Easy Action (3) sits the trip.
Key Contenders
Easy Action (3): Tyler Servis/Abner Adorno. Draws perfectly inside the speed. Should sit third and attack the leaders turning for home. Mac Daddy Too (9): J.G. Guerrero/Haddock. A fast horse, but the post is tricky.
Secondary Choices
Backside Buzz (10): The Jamie Ness factor. You cannot ignore Ness in a claiming race at Parx. Diamond Heist (8): Michael Pino/Jeriel Catala.
Betting Strategy
Fade the pure speed if the track isn’t biased. Easy Action is the tactical play.
Selections
Win: Easy Action (3) – 30% confidence Place: Backside Buzz (10) – 25% confidence Show: Mac Daddy Too (9) – 20% confidence Alternative: Diamond Heist (8) – 10% confidence
8th Race
Post Time: 03:14 PM Distance: 1 Mile 70 Yards Class: Claiming $16,000
Pace Analysis
Bestsugardaddyever (5) has speed and class. Styner (1) from the rail will try to hold position.
Key Contenders
Bestsugardaddyever (5): Jamie Ness and Mychel Sanchez team up here. This horse has back class and usually dominates at this level. He’s Got Swagger (3): A veteran campaigner who loves the Parx route.
Secondary Choices
Epic Luck (8): Ricardo Chiappe/Kravets. A grinder who will pick up pieces. Styner (1): Rail draw helps.
Betting Strategy
Bestsugardaddyever (5) is a likely single in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: Bestsugardaddyever (5) – 50% confidence Place: He’s Got Swagger (3) – 20% confidence Show: Styner (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: Epic Luck (8) – 10% confidence
9th Race
Post Time: 03:41 PM Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Class: Allowance Optional Claiming $50,000
Pace Analysis
The feature race. Aoife’s Magic (9) and Bella Queen (2) have serious gas. Shetalkstomuch (4) is also quick. Expect a sub-22 opening quarter.
Key Contenders
Aoife’s Magic (9): A talented PA-bred who has faced stakes company. Frankie Pennington rides for David Dotolo. The outside draw is perfect for 6.5 furlongs; she can stalk the indoor speed and grind them down. Delray (6): Tyler Servis/Abner Adorno. A 4-year-old with upside compared to the older mares in here.
Secondary Choices
Doctor Abbie (10): Tim Kreiser ships in or is local. Usually closes well. Lovely Charm (11): If the pace collapses, she will be rolling late.
Betting Strategy
This is a race to bet the class. Aoife’s Magic has the best resume.
Selections
Win: Aoife’s Magic (9) – 35% confidence Place: Delray (6) – 25% confidence Show: Doctor Abbie (10) – 20% confidence Alternative: Bella Queen (2) – 10% confidence
10th Race
Post Time: 04:08 PM Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Class: Claiming $5,000 (NW1Y)
Pace Analysis
A “get out” race with a massive field. Reliability is zero. Gun Maestro (2) and Crypt (12) are contenders.
Key Contenders
Amazing Woo (9): Scott Lake trains. In a race of non-winners for a year, trust the trainer who wins the most. Crypt (12): Jack Abrams. A veteran who drops to the bottom.
Secondary Choices
Gun Maestro (2): Dexter Haddock rides. Inside draw is good. Dither (5): Diaz/Wolfsont.
Betting Strategy
Spread deep in the Pick 4/5 here. If playing win, take a shot on the Scott Lake runner.
Selections
Win: Amazing Woo (9) – 25% confidence Place: Crypt (12) – 20% confidence Show: Gun Maestro (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: Dither (5) – 10% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
- Mychel Sanchez: The dominant rider on the card. He is live in Races 1, 2, 3, 6, and 8. When he teams up with Pino or Ness, it’s an auto-bet.
- Dexter Haddock: Often provides value on speed horses. Watch him on the Scott Lake runners in Race 1 and 10.
- Frankie Pennington: Look for him in the feature (Race 9) aboard Aoife’s Magic. He rides the chute distances (6.5F and 7F) exceptionally well.
Trainer Notes and Insights
- Jamie Ness: Starts Backside Buzz (R7) and Bestsugardaddyever (R8). Both are primary win contenders. Ness’s win percentage at Parx hovers around 25-30%, and he excels with claiming veterans.
- Michael Pino: Has a very strong hand today with Sister Marjorie (R2), Samantha’s Capo (R5), and Sheza Bernardini (R6). A Pino/Sanchez double or triple is very possible.
- Scott Lake: Dangerous in the bookend races (Race 1 and Race 10). He excels at the bottom claiming levels.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
- Best Bet of the Day: Race 8, Bestsugardaddyever (5). The class of the field and fits the conditions perfectly.
- Value Play: Race 7, Easy Action (3). Should get a perfect setup behind the speed duel of the favorites.
- The “Parx Pick 4” Strategy (Races 7-10):
- Race 7: 3, 9, 10
- Race 8: 5 (Single)
- Race 9: 6, 9, 10
- Race 10: 2, 9, 12
- Cost for $0.50 ticket: $13.50. This ticket leverages the strength of the Race 8 single to spread in the difficult Race 10.
