Penn National – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for December 12, 2025


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Penn National Race Course hosts a competitive nine-race card tonight featuring a mix of starter optional claiming, claiming, and maiden claiming events on the main dirt track. First post is scheduled for 5:45 PM ET with the final race going off at approximately 9:37 PM ET. The card features purses ranging from $11,000 to $28,000.

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for Grantville, Pennsylvania on December 12, 2025 shows temperatures ranging from a high of 37 degrees Fahrenheit during the day to a low of 26 degrees overnight. Conditions should be cloudy with minimal precipitation expected and winds around 7-9 mph. The main dirt track is expected to be listed as fast, providing typical racing conditions for this time of year at Penn National.​

Penn National operates year-round with live racing 150+ days per year, and the track crew maintains consistent racing surfaces even during winter conditions. Bettors should monitor any late scratches or changes to track conditions, as several horses on the scratch watch list could alter field sizes and betting strategies.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Penn National’s one-mile dirt configuration features a relatively short run to the first turn, which historically favors horses with early speed in sprint races. The track tends to play fairly in route races, though tactical speed remains an advantage.​

Post position statistics from Penn National show that in sprint races, stalls three through seven produce the most winners, with stall four yielding 18.7 percent winners and stall five producing 17.1 percent. Inside posts one and two show slightly lower returns at around 12 percent. In route races, the results are more evenly distributed, though stall five maintains strong production at 17.2 percent.​

The track typically favors early pace in sprints due to the configuration, while route races tend to be more forgiving for closers if the pace is honest. Bettors should consider tactical speed and favorable post positions when handicapping tonight’s card.

Race 1 – Starter Optional Claiming (5:45 PM)

6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $20,000 for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and upward

Post Time

5:45 PM ET

Pace Analysis

This race features multiple horses with tactical speed, particularly Quercus and Wicklow Pooka, who both possess early liveness. Rozzyroo has shown mid-pack speed that could position her for a forward trip. The pace setup appears moderate, which should favor horses that can secure good position without expending too much energy in the opening quarter.​

Key Contenders

Eleni enters with consistent form showing three top-five finishes in her last five starts at Penn National. The Paulina Sinnefia trainee has experience at the distance and track, with a third-place finish in November at six furlongs. Her mid-pack stalking style suits the expected pace scenario, and jockey Silvestre Gonzalez provides capable handling.​

Quercus represents trainer Erin McClellan, who wins at an impressive 27 percent at Penn National. The filly drops slightly in class after facing tougher competition at Parx and Penn National. Her mid-pack running style and the strong McClellan-Ramos combination make her a serious contender at morning line odds of 5-2.​

Rozzyroo ships in for trainer Andrew Simoff and draws the services of leading rider Julio Hernandez, who wins at 21 percent at Penn National. Her recent runner-up effort at Penn National demonstrates fitness, and the drop back to six furlongs after facing longer distances could benefit her tactical speed.​

Secondary Choices

Regal Miss Lily brings closing speed and fitness from recent turf efforts at Laurel Park. The class relief dropping from turf routes to this dirt sprint could unlock improvement. Trainer Flint Stites has over 2,000 career wins and knows how to place horses effectively.​

Lady Ahava has shown consistency with three exacta finishes in 2025, though she faces another tough field. The experience factor and familiarity with Penn National conditions keep her in the conversation for minor awards.​

Selections

Win: Eleni
Place: Quercus
Show: Rozzyroo

Race 2 – Claiming $5,000 (6:14 PM)

5 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $12,000 for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and upward

Post Time

6:14 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Red Head Italian figures to control the early pace from the rail with her fastest leader designation. Diamond Essence possesses tactical speed from post six that should position her within striking distance. The short five-furlong distance and speed-favoring bias at Penn National suggest the pace could be honest, potentially setting up closers if the early runners duel.​

Key Contenders

Red Head Italian returns off a recent victory at Penn National where she wired the field at six furlongs. The drop back to five furlongs fits her front-running style perfectly, and the rail draw provides an inside path to control. Trainer Mark Salvaggio wins at 34 percent at Penn National, making this combination particularly dangerous.​

Diamond Essence finished third in her last start at Penn National and shows consistent form with four exacta finishes in 14 career starts. Her fast tactical speed allows flexibility in running position, and trainer Timothy Kreiser’s 38 percent win rate with claimers at this level adds confidence.​

Hopeforgreatness brings value at morning line odds and possesses closing speed that could be effective if the pace is demanding. The seven-pound apprentice weight allowance with Jeriel Catala provides a significant advantage in this competitive field.​

Secondary Choices

Iracebeth has hit the board in recent starts and shows mid-pack versatility. Kentucky Reign offers exotic play potential as a deep closer at generous odds, though consistency has been lacking.​

Selections

Win: Red Head Italian
Place: Diamond Essence
Show: Hopeforgreatness

Race 3 – Maiden Claiming $10,000 (6:43 PM)

5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $15,000 for maidens 3-year-olds and upward

Post Time

6:43 PM ET

Pace Analysis

This large field of 12 maiden claimers features limited early speed, with Week’s Strong and Rar showing the most tactical pace. The lack of confirmed speed horses could result in moderate fractions, favoring horses with any early liveliness who can establish position before the turn.​

Key Contenders

Week’s Strong has shown consistent improvement through multiple starts, finishing second recently at Parx. Trainer J. Tyler Servis maintains solid statistics, and the horse’s closing kick could be potent if he times his rally correctly. His two runner-up finishes demonstrate he’s knocking on the door.​

Rar finished a strong second in his last start at Penn National and shows tactical versatility. Trainer Elisha Perez has been effective with maiden claimers, and the horse’s stalking style suits the likely pace scenario.​

Lord Seabee brings experience and earnings of over $103,000 despite never breaking his maiden. The drop to this claiming level represents his lowest in recent memory, and trainer Mark Salvaggio’s strong meet continues. Jockey Jomar Torres provides veteran handling.​

Secondary Choices

Gallant Creek showed improvement last time with a third-place finish at Charles Town. The surface switch back to Penn National’s main track could unlock further progress.​

Kerner possesses mid-pack tactical speed and figures for a piece at generous odds. Alphadini offers exotic play value as a deep closer.​

Longshots

Praline Can Do It at 15-1 brings value as a deep closer trained by Flint Stites. Missileer represents George Albright, who wins at 21 percent with maiden claimers.​

Selections

Win: Week’s Strong
Place: Rar
Show: Lord Seabee

Race 4 – Maiden Claiming $25,000 (7:12 PM)

6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $21,000 for 2-year-olds

Post Time

7:12 PM ET

Pace Analysis

This juvenile maiden claiming event features several first-time starters mixed with horses showing previous experience. Designed By Smarty and Sunchill both demonstrated tactical speed in recent efforts. The six-furlong distance with limited racing experience suggests horses with any early pace advantage could control proceedings.​

Key Contenders

Sunchill brings the most established form, having finished second in his last start at Penn National in similar company. The Kathleen Demasi trainee shows consistent improvement and the experience factor provides an edge over several first-time starters.​

Designed By Smarty finished second last out before being disqualified but demonstrated competitive ability. Trainer Bruce Kravets wins at 27 percent at Penn National, and the horse’s stalking style suits this field composition.​

Cosmic Collission drops in class after facing tougher maiden special weight competition. The class relief combined with Angel Cruz’s strong 15 percent win rate makes this combination dangerous.​

Secondary Choices

Moon Tide debuts with morning workouts suggesting readiness. React and Ruby Dome represent trainer Erin McClellan, who excels with juveniles at 27 percent win rate. Both are first-time starters with solid breeding.​

Selections

Win: Sunchill
Place: Designed By Smarty
Show: Cosmic Collission

Race 5 – Claiming $25,000 (7:41 PM)

1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt, Purse $28,000 for 3-year-olds and upward

Post Time

7:41 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Omar Comin figures as the likeliest pacesetter with his slowest leader designation, though Just Call Ray and My Redemption both possess mid-pack tactical speed. The route distance should allow for pace relaxation through the first half-mile before acceleration into the stretch.​

Key Contenders

Styner has shown remarkable consistency at this level, finishing in the exacta in multiple recent starts. Trainer Bruce Kravets maintains strong statistics with route claimers, and the horse’s closing kick could be decisive in the stretch drive. His competitive speed figures match up well with this field.​

Omar Comin steps up in class after an impressive victory but possesses tactical speed and improving form. Trainer Timothy Kreiser wins at 38 percent with claimers, making this class rise less concerning. The Angel Rodriguez riding assignment adds confidence.​

Just Call Ray drops significantly in class after facing much tougher competition. The six-length victory three starts back at Penn National demonstrates his ability at this track and distance. Julio Hernandez’s 21 percent win rate provides capable handling.​

Secondary Choices

My Redemption brings versatility and experience with strong earnings. Dreaming of Gerry represents the potent Jamie Ness-Martin Chuan combination that wins at high percentages.​

Selections

Win: Styner
Place: Omar Comin
Show: Just Call Ray

Race 6 – Claiming $10,000 (8:10 PM)

1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt, Purse $16,000 for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and upward

Post Time

8:10 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Maggie K brings early speed from post six, while Golden Dancer and the other fillies show mid-pack tendencies. The route distance typically allows pace to settle, favoring horses that can rate kindly before making their moves into the lane.​

Key Contenders

Golden Dancer won her last start impressively at Penn National and shows improving form with trainer Brandon Kulp, who wins at 29 percent. The Angel Rodriguez assignment provides elite handling, and the filly’s mid-pack stalking style suits the expected pace flow.​

Eazy Whirled brings tactical speed and versatility, having competed effectively on both dirt and turf. The return to Penn National’s dirt track could unlock improvement, and the David Cora-Chuck Spina combination has been effective.​

Peach Tea represents the Martin Chuan-Anthony Pecoraro duo and possesses mid-pack tactical speed. Her recent form shows consistency with multiple exacta finishes, making her a solid place/show contender.​

Secondary Choices

Margo’s Margarita has extensive experience and trainer Kevin Fields provides competent handling. Strong Decision won two starts back at this distance.​

Selections

Win: Golden Dancer
Place: Eazy Whirled
Show: Peach Tea

Race 7 – Maiden Claiming $25,000 (8:39 PM)

1 1/16 Miles Dirt, Purse $21,000 for maidens 3-year-olds and upward

Post Time

8:39 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Lion in the Sun and Happy Offering both show early speed designations, suggesting they will contest the pace through the opening stages. The distance provides opportunity for pace relaxation, potentially favoring horses that can rate off the leaders before striking in the stretch.​

Key Contenders

St Pete’s Passion brings the most established route experience with multiple placings at Delaware Park and Penn National. The Jomar Torres riding assignment provides veteran handling, and trainer Clyde Martin Jr. has prepared the horse for this spot.​

Lion in the Sun possesses early speed and drops down after facing tougher maiden special weight competition. The seven-pound apprentice weight allowance with Kendry Rivera could prove decisive in a competitive field.​

Vigneron shows promise with a strong second-place finish in his last start. Trainer Flint Stites excels at placing horses effectively, and the horse’s mid-pack running style suits this distance.​

Secondary Choices

Happy Offering brings turf experience and tactical speed. Katischuo has shown flashes of ability with a second-place finish two starts back.​

Selections

Win: St Pete’s Passion
Place: Lion in the Sun
Show: Vigneron

Race 8 – Claiming $4,000 (9:08 PM)

6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $12,000 for 3-year-olds and upward

Post Time

9:08 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Multiple horses possess early speed, including Kaz Sweet Heist and Sunday Gilt, suggesting a contested pace through the opening quarter. The low claiming level typically produces unpredictable results, though early speed should maintain an edge at Penn National’s configuration.​

Key Contenders

Heaven Street brings experience and solid earnings despite the low claiming level. Trainer Timothy Kreiser wins at 21 percent with bottom-level claimers, and the horse’s mid-pack tactical speed provides versatility. Angel Cruz’s 15 percent win rate adds confidence.​

Sunday Gilt possesses the fastest stalking designation and shows competitive form with four exacta finishes in eight recent starts. The Timothy Kreiser barn doubles down with two live runners, suggesting confidence in the spot.​

Mighty Minion could provide pace pressure early while attempting to wire the field. The Bobadilla-Inirio combination has shown effectiveness at this level.​

Secondary Choices

Pentatonic brings experience but faces a tough field. Boss Holiday offers exotic play value as a deep closer.​

Selections

Win: Heaven Street
Place: Sunday Gilt
Show: Mighty Minion

Race 9 – Claiming $5,000 (9:37 PM)

5 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $11,000 for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and upward

Post Time

9:37 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Vivid Artiste possesses the fastest stalking designation and figures to press any early pace. The short five-furlong distance and speed-favoring configuration at Penn National suggest tactical speed will be paramount. Multiple horses show mid-pack tendencies, potentially allowing Vivid Artiste to control proceedings.​

Key Contenders

Vivid Artiste dominated her last start at Penn National, winning by clear margins. The Kevin Fields trainee shows improving form with five exacta finishes in recent starts. David Cora provides capable handling, and the horse’s tactical speed suits the distance perfectly. She represents the standout in this nightcap event.​

Esther’s Salad brings consistency from Florida racing and shows tactical versatility. The class relief dropping to this level could unlock improvement, though she faces a tough assignment against the top choice.​

Perfect Pink offers value at morning line odds with a recent runner-up finish at Penn National. The seven-pound weight allowance provides a significant advantage in this competitive field.​

Secondary Choices

Red Betty brings experience but faces tough competition. Savannah Georgia offers closing speed that could factor if the pace is demanding.​

Selections

Win: Vivid Artiste
Place: Esther’s Salad
Show: Perfect Pink

Jockey Notes and Insights

Julio Hernandez continues his dominant form at Penn National with a 21 percent win rate and 52 percent in-the-money percentage. The veteran rider excels in both sprints and routes and maintains strong partnerships with multiple trainers on the circuit. Hernandez rides Rozzyroo in Race 1, Just Call Ray in Race 5, and has multiple mounts throughout the card.​

Ricardo Chiappe provides experienced handling with a 13 percent win rate and 54 percent in-the-money percentage at Penn National. The journeyman rider excels at rating horses properly and times his moves effectively. Chiappe rides Regal Miss Lily in Race 1 and Treasure Our Time in Race 4.​

Angel Rodriguez maintains elite statistics with a 29 percent win rate and 65 percent in-the-money percentage at Penn National. Rodriguez forms a potent combination with trainer Brandon Kulp, and this partnership should be respected throughout the card. He rides Golden Dancer in Race 6, a major win contender.​

Inoel Beato wins at 8 percent but shows solid consistency with a 49 percent in-the-money rate. The rider excels with mid-level claimers and maiden claimers, providing value on longshots. Beato rides Quivira Crane in Race 1 and Margo’s Margarita in Race 6.​

David Cora maintains strong form with a 22 percent win rate and 49 percent in-the-money percentage. Cora forms effective partnerships with multiple trainers and shows versatility across all claiming levels. He rides Indini in Race 2, Eazy Whirled in Race 6, and Vivid Artiste in Race 9.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Erin McClellan recently surpassed 500 career wins and maintains an impressive 27 percent win rate at Penn National. The Pennsylvania native excels with juvenile maidens and mid-level claimers, consistently finding spots where her horses can compete effectively. McClellan sends out Quercus and Quivira Crane in Race 1, React and Ruby Dome in Race 4, providing multiple win opportunities.​

Brandon Kulp dominates Penn National with a 29 percent win rate and 62 percent in-the-money percentage. The veteran conditioner maintains full barns and consistently produces winners across all claiming levels. Kulp trains Golden Dancer in Race 6, representing one of the best bets on the card.​

Flint Stites achieved his 2,000th career victory in 2020 and maintains a 14 percent win rate with solid consistency. The veteran trainer excels at placing horses properly and finds spots where class relief benefits his runners. Stites sends out Wicklow Pooka and Regal Miss Lily in Race 1, Treasure Our Time in Race 4, and Vigneron in Race 7.​

Jamie Ness leads the nation in training wins for 2025 with over 236 victories and maintains an exceptional 26 percent win rate. The Parx-based conditioner ships horses to Penn National regularly and wins at high percentages when making the trip. While Ness has limited runners on tonight’s card, any horse from his barn demands respect.​

Timothy Kreiser maintains a 38 percent win rate with claimers and shows particular effectiveness at Penn National. The conditioner excels with older horses dropping in class and finds spots where his runners possess significant class advantages. Kreiser trains Omar Comin in Race 5, Heaven Street and Sunday Gilt in Race 8.​

Kevin Fields wins at lower percentages but shows effectiveness with fillies and mares at bottom claiming levels. The trainer excels at keeping horses sound and competitive through extended campaigns. Fields sends out Margo’s Margarita in Race 6 and Vivid Artiste in Race 9, with the latter representing his best chance for a victory.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The most confident win plays on tonight’s card include Red Head Italian in Race 2, Vivid Artiste in Race 9, and Golden Dancer in Race 6. These three represent horses with significant class advantages, favorable pace scenarios, and elite trainer-jockey combinations. Straight win wagers on these runners provide the foundation for a successful evening.​

Vertical exotic strategies should focus on Race 5, where multiple contenders possess legitimate winning chances. A Pick 3 starting in Race 4 and continuing through Race 6 offers value, as each leg features competitive fields with realistic longshot threats. The sequence of Sunchill-Styner-Golden Dancer provides strong anchor points.​

Horizontal exotic plays in Race 3 offer significant value given the large 12-horse maiden claiming field. Box the top five selections (Week’s Strong, Rar, Lord Seabee, Gallant Creek, and Kerner) in exacta and trifecta wagers to capture multiple finish combinations. The competitive nature of maiden claimers suggests upsets remain possible.​

Late Pick 4 coverage beginning in Race 6 through Race 9 provides an attractive betting opportunity. Use Golden Dancer as a single in Race 6, spread in Race 7 given the competitive maiden claiming route, key Heaven Street and Sunday Gilt in Race 8, and single Vivid Artiste in the finale. This structure balances coverage with manageable costs.​

Daily Double plays connecting Race 1 to Race 2 offer value given the competitive nature of both fields. Box Eleni, Quercus, and Rozzyroo with Red Head Italian, Diamond Essence, and Hopeforgreatness to capture multiple winning combinations at reasonable prices. The Daily Double typically provides better value than straight win wagering when both legs feature competitive fields.​

Value longshot plays include Praline Can Do It in Race 3 at 15-1 morning line odds, trained by Flint Stites with tactical speed that could surprise. Perfect Pink in Race 9 offers value at 2-1 with the weight allowance providing a significant edge. Both horses fit situations where class relief and favorable conditions suggest improved performances.​

The strongest multi-race sequence appears to be Races 5 through 7, where each race features route distances that favor horses with tactical versatility. Constructing Pick 3 tickets using Styner and Omar Comin in Race 5, spreading in Race 6 across multiple contenders, and using St Pete’s Passion and Lion in the Sun in Race 7 provides solid coverage at reasonable costs.​

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