Penn National – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for December 4, 2025


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Penn National Race Course hosts a nine-race card tonight featuring a competitive mix of starter optional claiming, claiming, and maiden claiming events on the main dirt track. First post is scheduled for 5:45 PM ET with the final race going off at approximately 9:37 PM ET. The card features purses ranging from $11,000 to $22,000, attracting a solid contingent of the local circuit’s regulars.​

The scratch watch indicates potential changes in Race 1 (Charlie’s Express and Kaladin listed as veterinarian scratches), Race 2 (Garden Leave and Hope’s Alive as also-eligibles, Notturno as veterinarian scratch), Race 6 (Ollie Boy and Zihuatanejo), Race 7 (Lieutenant Stan), and Race 9 (Lucky Lucky Luke and Maybe It’s Time). Bettors should confirm the final entries before wagering.

Weather and Track Conditions

Weather for Grantville, Pennsylvania on December 4, 2025 calls for cold conditions with a high temperature of 38°F and a low dropping to 15°F overnight. The cold temperatures are typical for early December racing at Penn National, and the main dirt track is expected to be labeled Fast for the evening card. The lack of precipitation in the forecast suggests the surface should maintain consistent footing throughout the racing program.​

Track maintenance at Penn National has earned praise from local horsemen for keeping the racing surface in excellent condition even during challenging winter weather. The sealed dirt track typically plays fair to slightly favoring early speed, particularly in sprint events where the short run to the first turn rewards horses who establish position early.​

Penn National’s dirt track historically shows a mild bias toward front-runners and stalkers in sprint races. The short trip to the first bend gives early speed types an advantage, making it difficult for pure closers to overcome lost ground. In route races, the bias moderates somewhat with stalls 5 and 7 producing the highest winning percentages. Inside post positions (particularly post 1) have shown slightly below-average winning rates, while posts 3, 4, and 5 tend to be most productive in sprints.​


Race 1 – Starter Optional Claiming

Post Time: 5:45 PM ET

6 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse $21,000 for 3-year-olds and up, Starter Optional Claiming $16,000

Pace Analysis

This sprint shapes up with moderate early pressure. Charlie’s Express projects as the main speed, having shown a Fast Leader running style in his recent efforts. Sharon’s Prince and Cappetta both employ Fastest Deep styles, suggesting they will settle early before making their moves. Breezing Up comes in off consecutive wire-to-wire victories at Laurel but is classified as a Slowest Closer, indicating he may prefer to rate and come with a late run. The pace scenario favors horses who can secure early position without expending excessive energy, with Charlie’s Express likely setting honest fractions.​

Key Contenders

Sharon’s Prince won his most recent start impressively at Penn National going six furlongs and fits well in this spot. Trained by Brandon Kulp, who maintains a 30% win rate at the meet, and ridden by Angel R. Rodriguez (25% win rate), this gelding brings the winning connections combination that dominates the local colony. His 62% in-the-money rate over 32 career starts demonstrates remarkable consistency, and the step up from his last claiming victory positions him as the horse to beat.​

Charlie’s Express drops in class after facing tougher company at Finger Lakes and Monmouth. Trainer Mark Salvaggio wins at an excellent 34% clip, and the horse’s Fast Leader style is well-suited to Penn National’s sprint-favoring configuration. While listed on the scratch watch for veterinary reasons, if he runs, his early speed makes him dangerous.​

Breezing Up arrives on a two-race winning streak from Laurel, both gate-to-wire victories at 5.5 furlongs. The stretch to 6 furlongs should not be problematic, and his recent form is the sharpest in the field. However, his Slowest Closer style designation suggests those wins may have come on tracks that played differently than Penn National’s speed-favoring surface.​

Secondary Choices

Cappetta has been ultra-consistent with a 60% in-the-money rate from 15 career starts, including recent placed efforts at Penn National. Inoel Beato gets the mount, and while trainer Kevin Fields wins at only 13%, this horse’s Fastest Deep running style could benefit if the pace gets contentious up front.​

Kaladin brings class from higher-level races at Parx, including a win at Delaware in a 1-mile turf event. The question is whether he can translate that form to a shorter dirt sprint at Penn National. Bruce Kravets conditions this one, and the Mid Pack Stalker style should allow him to find a favorable trip.​

Selections

Win: Sharon’s Prince

Place: Charlie’s Express

Show: Breezing Up


Race 2 – Starter Optional Claiming

Post Time: 6:14 PM ET

1 Mile, Dirt, Purse $21,000 for 3-year-olds and up, Starter Optional Claiming $16,000

Pace Analysis

The route distance changes the dynamics considerably. Good Friday Man and Notturno both show Leads-type running styles, potentially creating some early competition for the front. Hope’s Alive employs a Mid Pack Leads approach, suggesting he will be forwardly placed without necessarily challenging for the early lead. The one-mile distance on Penn National’s oval rewards horses who can establish position through the first turn and maintain stamina through the stretch.​

Key Contenders

Hope’s Alive has the experience edge at this distance with competitive efforts in recent starts. Trained by Bruce Kravets and ridden by David Cora (19% win rate), this 3-year-old colt carries the top weight of 124 pounds but has shown the ability to handle route distances. His Mid Pack Leads style positions him to stalk the pace and make a move turning for home.​

Notturno enters off a third-place finish at Penn National going one mile on dirt. The 30% career win rate (3 wins from 10 starts) indicates a horse capable of winning when the conditions align. Listed on the scratch watch for veterinary reasons, but if he runs, his recent form at the track and distance makes him a serious contender.​

Good Friday Man won his last race at Penn National going one mile and has shown flashes of ability throughout his career. The Slower Leads style may work well if he can secure an uncontested front, but competition for the early lead could compromise his chances.​

Secondary Choices

Mo Money Mo Money has tactical speed and could benefit from a pace meltdown scenario. The 3-year-old colt trained by Corby Caiazzo shows a Slowest Stalker style that could be effective if the frontrunners set hot fractions. Arctic Outbreak and Garden Leave offer value at longer odds but face questions about their current form.

Longshots

Where’s My Chew at double-digit odds could offer value as a mid-pack runner who might capitalize on a contested pace. The Bruce Kravets trainee has been competitive without threatening to win recently but could fill out exotic tickets.

Selections

Win: Hope’s Alive

Place: Notturno

Show: Good Friday Man


Race 3 – Claiming

Post Time: 6:43 PM ET

1 Mile, Dirt, Purse $12,000 for 3-year-olds and up, Claiming $4,000

Pace Analysis

This low-level claiming event features several horses with early speed tendencies. Here’s Waldo shows as Fastest Leads, Roadtriptonowhere as Fast Leads, and Cobble Road as Mid Pack Leads. The abundance of speed types suggests fractions could be hot, potentially setting up a scenario for closers like Bird King and Spinning Musician to rally from off the pace.​

Key Contenders

Here’s Waldo brings a Fastest Leads style and should have every chance to control the pace from post 5. Trained by Carlos M. Johnson (100% win rate in limited starts) and ridden by Inoel Beato (18% win rate), this 7-year-old gelding has experience at the distance and should appreciate the undemanding class level. His 33% win rate at this course makes him dangerous.​

Porch Swing has shown strong recent form with a close second-place finish last time out. The Irish Racing analysis identified this horse as the one to beat based on consistency and improving trajectory. From post 10, he’ll need to work through traffic, but his closing style could benefit from a fast early pace.​

Bird King offers significant value at 8-1 morning line odds. The 8-year-old gelding employs a Fast Closer running style perfectly suited to capitalize on a pace meltdown. Trained by Karin Wagner and ridden by Angel Cruz, this veteran has won at Penn National and knows the track well. Handicappers have identified him as a prime longshot play.​

Secondary Choices

Roadtriptonowhere brings $415,270 in career earnings, far exceeding his rivals. The class drop into this $4,000 claiming race is dramatic, and trainer Bruce Kravets may be looking for an easy spot. The Fast Leads style fits the track, though the step down in class often signals declining form.​

Spinning Musician at 10-1 odds represents another closer who could benefit from pace pressure. Trainer Cody Beattie wins at 20% with horses in this barn, and the Slower Leads designation may be misleading based on recent races.​

Longshots

Musical Heart and Bold Hoppertunity offer extreme value at 8-1 and 15-1 respectively. Musical Heart has won 8 of 41 career starts, including a recent victory at Parx. Bold Hoppertunity’s 24% career win rate suggests he remains competitive despite longer odds.

Selections

Win: Here’s Waldo

Place: Porch Swing

Show: Bird King


Race 4 – Starter Optional Claiming

Post Time: 7:12 PM ET

1 Mile 70 Yards, Dirt, Purse $20,000 for 3-year-olds and up, Starter Optional Claiming $16,000

Pace Analysis

War Code stands out as the Fastest Leader in this field, projecting to establish early control. Solar Glare shows a Fast Deep style, suggesting he’ll rate early before making his move. The two-turn configuration at one mile and 70 yards typically rewards horses who can rate kindly through the clubhouse turn before accelerating through the lane.​

Key Contenders

Solar Glare gets the call as the top selection based on superior recent form. The 3-year-old gelding finished second in his last start at Penn National going 1 1/16 miles, demonstrating he handles route distances effectively. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia (33% win rate) and jockey Julio A. Hernandez (22% win rate on the circuit) provide winning connections.​

War Code fits the profile of a Penn National sprint-to-route horse who can control the pace. His Fastest Leader style should allow him to establish early position, and trainer Mark Salvaggio has been hot at the meet. The concern is whether he can maintain stamina through the extended distance, but his recent third-place finish going 6 furlongs at Penn National showed competitiveness.​

Awesome Harry has shown remarkable consistency with a 58% in-the-money rate from 19 career starts. The Mid Pack Closer running style means he’ll need pace help, but his recent efforts suggest he’s rounding into form. Jockey Yabriel O. Ramos has experience with this horse.​

Secondary Choices

Max Barley at 6-1 offers value as a horse who has been competitive at Penn National without threatening to win. The Mid Pack Closer style could benefit if War Code sets aggressive fractions. Birravino Blvd trained by Bruce Kravets has route experience but his Slowest Closer style makes him pace-dependent.

Selections

Win: Solar Glare

Place: War Code

Show: Awesome Harry


Race 5 – Maiden Claiming

Post Time: 7:41 PM ET

1 Mile, Dirt, Purse $17,000 for Maiden Fillies, 2-year-olds, Claiming $16,000

Pace Analysis

Op Overlord shows the Fastest Leader running style and should vie for the early lead. Ambessa employs a Mid Pack Leader approach, suggesting she’ll be forwardly placed without necessarily challenging for the front. The limited racing experience of most entrants makes pace projections speculative, but the route distance should reward horses with stamina and tactical speed.​

Key Contenders

Ambessa towers over this field based on recent form and connections. The Brandon Kulp trainee finished third at Parx going one mile, demonstrating she can handle the distance. With Angel R. Rodriguez in the irons (29% win rate), this filly has the jockey-trainer combination that dominates Penn National. Her 50% in-the-money rate from two career starts indicates she’s always competitive.​

Op Overlord brings the most experience with four career starts, including a third-place finish going one mile on turf. The Fastest Leader style should translate well to dirt, and trainer Michael Miceli (22% win rate) knows how to prepare first-time route runners. The 9-5 morning line makes her the co-favorite, and she merits serious consideration.​

Run Out The Clock debuts for trainer Erin McClellan, who wins at 25% overall. The filly shows strong winning profile percentages (38% win, 70% place, 95% show) based on statistical modeling, suggesting she fits well in this maiden event. The lack of racing experience is the primary concern.​

Secondary Choices

Rosie Outlook is the stablemate to Run Out The Clock, also trained by Erin McClellan. The Mid Pack Closer style might work if the pace gets contentious, but her 0-for-2 record and poor finishes in those starts raise concerns. Kool Kay and Dancing Deanna have limited experience and face uphill battles.

Longshots

No Argument at 14-1 offers a live longshot option for exotic players. The filly has three career starts and shows improvement from each race. The Slowest Stalker style could benefit if frontrunners tire late.

Selections

Win: Ambessa

Place: Op Overlord

Show: Run Out The Clock


Race 6 – Claiming

Post Time: 8:10 PM ET

6 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse $11,000 for 3-year-olds and up, Claiming $5,000

Pace Analysis

Letsgetluckytonite brings a Fastest Leader running style and should fire for the lead from the rail. Ole Authority shows a Slower Leads profile, suggesting he’ll rate early before making a move. The 6-furlong sprint distance and low claiming level typically produce unpredictable results, but early speed should have an edge on Penn National’s configuration.​

Key Contenders

Ole Authority steps down dramatically in class for trainer Brandon Kulp and jockey Angel R. Rodriguez. This winning combination has dominated Penn National racing, and the class drop suggests they’re looking for an easy spot. The Slower Leads style should allow him to stalk the pace and pounce turning for home.​

Letsgetluckytonite possesses the Fastest Leader style ideally suited to Penn National sprints. The rail draw could be problematic, but his tactical speed gives him every chance to establish position early. Trainer Alisa Brooke Sarson has been competitive at the meet despite modest percentages.​

Bearing Down comes off a third-place finish at Penn National going 5.5 furlongs. The class drop from $287,761 in career earnings to a $5,000 claiming race is significant. David Cora gets the mount for trainer Bruce Kravets, bringing winning connections despite the declining form.​

Secondary Choices

Bells Run and Ollie Boy (on scratch watch) offer secondary options but face questions about their current ability at this level. Zihuatanejo (also on scratch watch) has shown some ability but draws outside and may have difficulty reaching contention.

Longshots

Uncle Georgy at 8-1 offers a live longshot with his Slower Stalker running style. The 5-year-old gelding has struggled recently but could benefit if the pace collapses.

Selections

Win: Ole Authority

Place: Letsgetluckytonite

Show: Bearing Down


Race 7 – Claiming

Post Time: 8:39 PM ET

6 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse $22,000 for 3-year-olds and up, Claiming $16,000

Pace Analysis

In Sky We Trust shows the Fastest Stalker designation, suggesting he’ll be forwardly placed early. Mask Patrol brings a Fast Stalker style, and Great Kisser is classified as Fast Leads. The presence of multiple speed horses suggests honest early fractions, potentially setting up for closers like Commingling and Nazareno.​

Key Contenders

Ellie’s Boyfriend gets the top call based on the powerful Brandon Kulp and Angel R. Rodriguez connection. This 4-year-old gelding shows a Mid Pack Leader style that should position him perfectly to stalk the speed and drive to the wire. The 3-1 morning line reflects his chances, and his 60% in-the-money rate demonstrates consistency.​

Mask Patrol has been knocking on the door with a second and third in his last two Penn National starts at six furlongs. Jomar Torres gets the mount for trainer Kathleen Demasi, and the Fast Stalker style fits the track profile. At 5-2 morning line odds, he offers fair value as the co-favorite.​

In Sky We Trust brings strong form from Finger Lakes with a second-place finish in his most recent start. The 30% career win rate (8 wins from 27 starts) indicates a horse capable of winning when conditions align. Christopher Elliott rides for trainer Jeffrey Englehart.​

Secondary Choices

Great Kisser won his last race at Penn National going six furlongs and returns to the same conditions. The Fast Leads style gives him early position, but he faces stiffer competition today. Trainer Bruce Kravets and jockey Yabriel O. Ramos bring solid connections.​

Commingling at 6-1 offers value as a horse who can close from off the pace. His 28% career win rate and Mid Pack Stalker style could produce a big effort if the pace proves demanding.

Longshots

Lieutenant Stan (on scratch watch) and Nazareno at 20-1 offer longshot appeal for exotic players. Both have shown some ability at the meet but face significant challenges against the top contenders.

Selections

Win: Ellie’s Boyfriend

Place: Mask Patrol

Show: In Sky We Trust


Race 8 – Claiming

Post Time: 9:08 PM ET

6 Furlongs, Dirt, Purse $13,000 for Fillies and Mares, 3-year-olds and up, Claiming $5,000

Pace Analysis

Me Darlin Kathleen brings a Fastest Leader running style and should control the early pace. Braccesca and Combat Hoofs both show Fast Leads designations, suggesting competition for the front. Time of Our Lives employs a Fast Stalker approach, positioning her to capitalize if the pace becomes contentious.​

Key Contenders

Time of Our Lives projects as the top selection based on strong recent form and winning connections. Trained by Brandon Kulp and ridden by Angel R. Rodriguez, this 4-year-old filly has the dominant jockey-trainer combination at Penn National. Her Fast Stalker style should allow her to track the speed and close convincingly.​

Me Darlin Kathleen draws attention as the likely pacesetter. Trained by Cody Beattie (14% win rate) and ridden by Leonardo Corujo, this mare has shown the ability to wire fields when left alone on the front. The key question is whether she can handle the early pressure from multiple speed types.​

Combat Hoofs enters for trainer Erin McClellan, who has been effective at the meet. The Fast Leads style positions her to be competitive early, and jockey Manuel Aguilar can help her secure position from the rail. The 3-2 suggested odds indicate handicappers view her as a serious contender.​

Secondary Choices

Braccesca at 5-2 offers value as another speed horse who might benefit if Me Darlin Kathleen falters. The Fast Leads style and trainer Franklin Rodriguez provide a competitive combination. Prussian Blue at 11-1 could offer a late rally if the pace proves demanding.

Longshots

Pretty Lily at 20-1 and Happybirthdaycorey at 12-1 offer exotic play appeal. Both have competitive form in their backgrounds but face uphill battles against the top selections.

Selections

Win: Time of Our Lives

Place: Me Darlin Kathleen

Show: Combat Hoofs


Race 9 – Claiming

Post Time: 9:37 PM ET

1 Mile, Dirt, Purse $12,000 for 3-year-olds and up, Claiming $5,000

Pace Analysis

The nightcap features a competitive field at the claiming level. Tony O shows a Slowest Deep running style, while Max’s Glory employs a Mid Pack Stalker approach. Spurs Up and Donnelly’s Hollow both have tactical speed that should position them for competitive efforts through the one-mile configuration.​

Key Contenders

Donnelly’s Hollow brings the powerful Kulp-Rodriguez connection to the finale. The 3-year-old gelding has shown a 100% in-the-money rate in limited recent action, demonstrating he’s competitive when the conditions align. The Slower Stalker style should work well in this field.​

Spurs Up gets the nod from multiple handicapping sources based on recent form and trainer Phil Schoenthal’s effectiveness. Angel Cruz picks up the mount, bringing a capable jockey to a horse with room for improvement.​

Max’s Glory at 2-1 morning line is well-respected by the market but may offer less value than alternatives. The Mid Pack Stalker style positions him to track the pace, and trainer Chuck Spina has had success with this horse. Jomar Torres gets the call.​

Secondary Choices

Auden at 8-1 offers value as a horse who has been competitive at higher levels. The weight break (114 lbs) could help, and the Slower Stalker style might benefit from a contested pace. Stifling Heat at 12-1 has shown flashes of ability but faces questions about route stamina.

Longshots

Tony O at 11-1 and Lucky Lucky Luke (on scratch watch) at 12-1 offer exotic appeal. Both have significant earnings in their backgrounds but have struggled to find the winner’s circle recently.

Selections

Win: Spurs Up

Place: Donnelly’s Hollow

Show: Max’s Glory


Jockey Notes and Insights

Angel R. Rodriguez continues as the leading rider at Penn National with a 25% win rate and 61% in-the-money percentage. He has captured Jockey of the Week honors multiple times this season and brings experience from Puerto Rico where he began his career. Rodriguez picks up six mounts tonight, including favorites Sharon’s Prince (Race 1), Ole Authority (Race 6), Ellie’s Boyfriend (Race 7), Time of Our Lives (Race 8), and Donnelly’s Hollow (Race 9).​

Julio A. Hernandez maintains an impressive 22% win rate at Penn National and has been named Jockey of the Week several times during the 2025 campaign. He rides Solar Glare in Race 4, where his experience with route runners could prove valuable.​

Jomar Torres brings consistency with a 17% win rate and has experience at multiple mid-Atlantic tracks. He pilots Charlie’s Express in Race 1 and Mask Patrol in Race 7, both competitive live mounts.​

David Cora surpassed 2,500 career wins in 2022 and continues as a reliable option at Penn National. The 15% career win rate masks his competitiveness, and he gets live mounts with Hope’s Alive (Race 2) and Bearing Down (Race 6).​

Inoel Beato approaches 1,000 career wins and maintains strong connections at the track. His mounts include Cappetta (Race 1), Rosie Outlook (Race 5), and several others throughout the card.​


Trainer Notes and Insights

Brandon L. Kulp dominates Penn National with 103 wins from 341 starts in 2025, a remarkable 30% win rate. He has won multiple Grade 3 stakes during his career and consistently places horses in spots where they can succeed. Kulp has live runners in nearly every race tonight, including Sharon’s Prince, Ambessa, Ole Authority, Ellie’s Boyfriend, Time of Our Lives, and Donnelly’s Hollow.​

Bruce Kravets brings $33.5 million in lifetime earnings to his Penn National barn, conditioning horses across various distance and class levels. His 16% win rate understates his ability to place horses competitively, and he has multiple starters tonight including Kaladin, Where’s My Chew, Roadtriptonowhere, Bearing Down, Great Kisser, and Lucky Lucky Luke.​

Erin McClellan recently surpassed 500 career wins and maintains an 18% strike rate at Penn National. The Pennsylvania native has built a competitive operation and sends out two maidens in Race 5 with Run Out The Clock and Rosie Outlook, plus Combat Hoofs in Race 8.​

Mark Salvaggio wins at an impressive 34% clip and has multiple live runners tonight including Charlie’s Express and War Code. His operation consistently produces winners at Penn National.​


Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The dominance of Brandon Kulp and Angel R. Rodriguez creates opportunities for keying their runners in multi-race wagers. Consider using Sharon’s Prince (Race 1), Ambessa (Race 5), Ole Authority (Race 6), Ellie’s Boyfriend (Race 7), Time of Our Lives (Race 8), and Donnelly’s Hollow (Race 9) as anchors in Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 5 sequences.

Race 3 presents the best value play of the evening with Bird King at 8-1 morning line odds. His Fast Closer running style is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the abundant early speed, and handicappers have identified him as a prime upset candidate.​

For exacta players, Race 7 offers an attractive opportunity with Ellie’s Boyfriend and Mask Patrol likely to dominate the order of finish. Boxing these two with In Sky We Trust underneath provides coverage at reasonable cost.

The maiden Race 5 features limited racing experience throughout the field. Ambessa and Op Overlord tower over their rivals based on form and connections, making them strong singles in horizontal wagers.

Race 1 presents a competitive sprint where Sharon’s Prince (returning winner) squares off against Charlie’s Express (class dropper) and Breezing Up (hot streak). Consider spreading in exactas and trifectas given the competitive nature.

The late Pick 4 (Races 6-9) offers excellent potential value by keying the Kulp-Rodriguez runners Ole Authority, Ellie’s Boyfriend, Time of Our Lives, and Spurs Up/Donnelly’s Hollow. These connections have proven reliable throughout the meet.

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