Penn National – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for November 19, 2025

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Penn National presents a competitive nine-race card on Wednesday evening, November 19, 2025, with first post at 5:45 PM ET. The program features a mix of claiming races at various levels, two maiden claiming events, and a maiden special weight contest, offering handicappers diverse wagering opportunities across sprint and route distances. The card includes purses ranging from $11,000 to $34,000, with Pennsylvania breeding fund supplements adding up to 40 percent additional money to each race.​

Track conditions are expected to be fast on the main dirt surface, with officials monitoring weather patterns throughout the day. The scratch watch indicates several horses have been removed from entries at other tracks due to various reasons, though the Penn National card appears to have minimal disruptions.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Current weather conditions at Penn National show cloudy skies with temperatures around 45 degrees Fahrenheit and west winds at 6 mph with 43 percent humidity. Early morning reports from Central Pennsylvania indicated snow was present in the region, though track officials are working to maintain optimal racing surfaces for the evening card.​

The forecast calls for partly sunny conditions with temperatures moderating throughout the day, though there is a slight chance of precipitation. Track maintenance crews are expected to work between races to ensure consistent racing surfaces under artificial lighting for the evening program.​

Penn National historically shows minimal post position bias in route races, with middle posts performing well in sprint distances. Post four has demonstrated an 18.7 percent win rate, while post five shows 17.1 percent, making these mid-track starting positions favorable. Inside posts, particularly the one-hole, show slightly lower productivity at 11.8 percent.​

Race 1: Claiming 5000

Post Time: 5:45 PM

This mile and 70-yard claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward features seven runners who have never won two races. The $5,000 claiming price attracts a competitive field with several horses showing recent form at the distance.​

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario appears moderate with multiple horses capable of showing early speed. Canadian Bear has demonstrated tactical speed in recent efforts and can establish position from the rail-favoring outside post. Peach Tea and Maggie K both show mid-pack tendencies that could set up a contested but manageable early pace.​

Key Contenders

Canadian Bear draws the outside post seven and receives a significant weight advantage at just 115 pounds. The three-year-old filly has earnings exceeding $269,000 and shows a consistent running style as a stalker. Recent efforts at Laurel over turf routes demonstrated competitiveness against similar competition, and the return to dirt at a distance she handles could produce a forward move. Trainer Kieron Magee has a 17 percent win rate with a 50 percent in-the-money percentage at the meet.​

Tapwrit Warrior represents another contender in this field with 54 percent place probability according to handicapping models. The four-year-old filly has shown consistency with four runner-up finishes from 24 career starts. Recent races at Delaware demonstrated she handles the mile distance, though she has struggled to break through for victories. Jockey Raul Mena provides experienced handling in the irons.​

Secondary Choices

Peach Tea merits consideration as a secondary selection with a 47 percent place probability profile. The four-year-old filly has earned over $114,000 and shows mid-pack running tendencies that could prove effective if the pace develops favorably. Jockey Martin Chuan has a solid 16 percent win rate with 43 percent in-the-money finishes. Trainer Anthony Pecoraro shows exceptional statistics with a 50 percent win rate from limited starts.​

Maggie K adds depth to the contender pool with three runner-up finishes from 13 career starts. The five-year-old mare recently placed third in a similar Penn National sprint and previously ran second at this distance. The combination of jockey Maicol Inirio and trainer Jose Bobadilla provides competent connections.​

Selections

Win: Canadian Bear

Place: Tapwrit Warrior

Show: Peach Tea

Race 2: Maiden Claiming 10000

Post Time: 6:14 PM

This mile and 70-yard maiden claiming event features nine three-year-old and older geldings seeking their first career victory. The $10,000 claiming tag and $15,000 purse make this a competitive bottom-level maiden affair.​

Pace Analysis

The pace setup appears honest with several horses showing closing tendencies. Soo Handsome profiles as the likely pacesetter with his stalker style, while Magic Path and Analyst both show late-running patterns. The route distance provides ample opportunity for closers to make sustained moves if they are positioned properly entering the stretch.​

Key Contenders

Soo Handsome tops the handicapping models with 50 percent place probability and 73 percent show probability. The three-year-old gelding ran second in his most recent Penn National start and has shown consistent improvement with three placed finishes from eight career starts. His stalker running style suits the distance, and he demonstrates tactical speed that could prove decisive.​

Emirates Honor brings relevant winning experience to this maiden field, having broken through for his first victory at Monmouth Park. The three-year-old gelding has compiled four runner-up finishes and eight third-place efforts from 14 career starts, showing consistency if not dominance. The combination of jockey Angel Rodriguez (25 percent win rate, 61 percent in-the-money) and trainer Brandon Kulp (30 percent win rate, 67 percent in-the-money) represents one of the strongest connections on the card.​

Secondary Choices

Magic Path presents an intriguing secondary option despite never winning in 19 career starts. The four-year-old gelding has earned over $123,000 through five runner-up finishes and five third-place efforts. Recent Penn National routes show consistent efforts, including a second-place finish and a fourth-place effort. Jockey Jomar Torres maintains a strong 21 percent win rate with 58 percent in-the-money finishes.​

Analyst adds another closing dimension with David Cora (19 percent win rate, 54 percent in-the-money) in the saddle. The three-year-old gelding shows one in-the-money finish from eight career starts, with trainer Kevin Fields bringing horses to form at the right time.​

Selections

Win: Soo Handsome

Place: Emirates Honor

Show: Magic Path

Race 3: Maiden Claiming 25000

Post Time: 6:43 PM

This 5.5-furlong sprint for two-year-olds at the $25,000 claiming level features ten juvenile runners seeking their first career victory. The elevated claiming price reflects the higher quality of this maiden field.​

Pace Analysis

With ten two-year-olds breaking from the gate in a sprint distance, expect a contested early pace as multiple runners show speed. The 5.5-furlong distance requires sharp breaks and quick establishment of position. First-time starters add unpredictability to the pace scenario, though horses with previous experience should have advantages in understanding the racing environment.​

Key Contenders

Racetrack Romance stands out as the top selection with 60 percent place probability and 88 percent show probability according to analytical models. The two-year-old colt debuted at Parx Racing in a similar maiden claiming sprint, gaining valuable experience. Jockey Inoel Beato brings an 17 percent win rate with 41 percent in-the-money finishes, while trainer Erin McClellan shows an 8 percent win rate with 36 percent in-the-money percentage from recent starts.​

Whisper Roar represents a first-time starter from the powerful Brandon Kulp barn, which maintains a 32 percent win rate with 66 percent in-the-money finishes. Jockey Angel Rodriguez (25 percent win rate, 62 percent in-the-money) provides top-tier handling. The Kulp-Rodriguez combination has proven highly effective throughout the meet and merits respect even with unraced horses.​

Secondary Choices

Constantine brings the most experience to this field with 12 career starts, including one victory, three runner-up finishes, and four third-place efforts. The gelding has earned over $51,000 and recently ran third at Penn National in a similar maiden claiming sprint. The experience factor could prove valuable in a field dominated by lightly raced juveniles.​

Torotoro adds another dimension as a lightly raced runner making his second career start. The gelding debuted with a sixth-place finish at Penn National in late October and should benefit from that initial racing experience.​

Selections

Win: Whisper Roar

Place: Racetrack Romance

Show: Constantine

Race 4: Claiming 10000

Post Time: 7:12 PM

This six-furlong sprint for three-year-olds and upward at the $10,000 claiming level features six runners with varying experience levels. The conditions restrict entries to horses that have not won since August 19 or have never won four races.​

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario points to early speed from multiple runners. Aquitania Arrival and Great Kisser both profile as pace-pressing types who can establish position early. The six-furlong distance favors horses with tactical speed who can rate just off the leaders before making their moves.​

Key Contenders

Aquitania Arrival represents the class of this field with career earnings exceeding $458,000. The six-year-old gelding shows fastest leader running style and benefits from the powerful Brandon Kulp training (30 percent win rate, 64 percent in-the-money) and Angel Rodriguez riding combination (25 percent win rate, 61 percent in-the-money). This duo has proven highly effective throughout the meet and represents the strongest connections in the race.​

Great Kisser provides a formidable challenge with career earnings of $198,338 and demonstrated speed. The four-year-old gelding shows a fastest leads running style and pairs with David Cora (19 percent win rate, 54 percent in-the-money) for trainer Mark Salvaggio (33 percent win rate, 67 percent in-the-money). The Cora-Salvaggio combination has been productive at the current meet.​

Secondary Choices

Kaz Creed merits secondary consideration with four victories and six runner-up finishes from 14 career starts. The four-year-old gelding recently won at Penn National over this exact six-furlong distance and shows a mid-pack closer running style. Jockey Ricardo Chiappe maintains a 14 percent win rate with 55 percent in-the-money finishes.​

Hatch brings experience and earnings of over $376,000 to this claiming sprint. The six-year-old gelding shows a deep closer running style and benefits from the Jamie Ness training (21 percent win rate, 57 percent in-the-money).​

Selections

Win: Aquitania Arrival

Place: Great Kisser

Show: Kaz Creed

Race 5: Claiming 5000

Post Time: 7:41 PM

This mile and 70-yard claiming race for three-year-olds and upward at the $5,000 level features eight runners seeking victories at the bottom claiming tier. The route distance provides opportunities for closers and horses with stamina advantages.​

Pace Analysis

Route races at bottom claiming levels typically produce moderate to slow early paces as horses lack the class to establish and maintain aggressive fractions. Multiple horses show stalking and closing tendencies, suggesting the pace will be manageable for runners positioned within striking distance entering the stretch.​

Key Contenders

Home Invasion emerges as the top selection based on handicapping models showing 52 percent place probability and 86 percent show probability. The three-year-old colt brings tactical versatility and benefits from trainer James Lawrence handling. Recent form suggests readiness for a forward move at this distance.​

Kaz Ice Changer adds appeal at potentially generous odds as a three-year-old gelding with upside. The runner carries 124 pounds, indicating connections view him favorably compared to lighter-weighted rivals. Jockey David Cora (19 percent win rate, 54 percent in-the-money) provides experienced handling.​

Secondary Choices

Work From Home represents a secondary option with earnings exceeding $90,000 from 26 career starts. The four-year-old gelding shows a fast leads running style and recently ran second at Penn National over a mile dirt course. Jockey Jomar Torres brings a strong 21 percent win rate with 58 percent in-the-money finishes to the mount.​

Mycroft provides another dimension with four runner-up finishes from 12 career starts. The three-year-old colt earned over $36,000 and shows fastest leads running style. Trainer Erin McClellan has developed a reputation for bringing horses to peak form at opportune moments.​

Selections

Win: Home Invasion

Place: Kaz Ice Changer

Show: Work From Home

Race 6: Claiming 5000

Post Time: 8:10 PM

This mile and 70-yard claiming race for three-year-olds and upward who have never won three races features six runners at the $5,000 claiming level. The conditions create a competitive field of limited winners seeking to improve their records.​

Pace Analysis

Chill Boss profiles as the likely pacesetter with his fast leader running style. Wild Jaime shows fastest closer tendencies, setting up a pace scenario where early speed could be challenged by late-running types. The route distance provides ample time for pace scenarios to develop and closing moves to materialize.​

Key Contenders

Wild Jaime tops the analytical models with 58 percent place probability and 83 percent show probability. The four-year-old gelding has earned over $88,000 with two victories, four runner-up finishes, and six third-place efforts from 16 career starts. His fastest closer running style could prove effective if the pace develops favorably. Jockey Christopher Elliott maintains a 17 percent win rate with 32 percent in-the-money finishes.​

Chill Boss provides a contrasting pace dimension with his fast leader running style. The three-year-old gelding won impressively when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles recently and shows tactical speed that could prove decisive. The drop back to the mile distance might actually benefit his pace-pressing style.​

Secondary Choices

Spurs Up merits consideration as a secondary option despite limited recent success. The five-year-old gelding has earned over $240,000 with two victories and consistent efforts in similar claiming races. His slower closer running style gives him a different tactical approach.​

Rays Blue Wagon adds another dimension with his recent victory at Delaware Park over the exact mile distance. The three-year-old colt has compiled two victories and four runner-up finishes from nine career starts, showing a 22 percent win rate. His slower closer style could prove effective if positioned properly.​

Selections

Win: Wild Jaime

Place: Chill Boss

Show: Rays Blue Wagon

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight

Post Time: 8:39 PM

This six-furlong maiden special weight event features nine three-year-olds and older seeking their first career victories without restrictions. The $34,000 purse represents the richest race on the card and attracts quality maiden runners.​

Pace Analysis

Multiple horses in this maiden field show pace-pressing capabilities. Sams After Party profiles as the fastest stalker, while Secret Journey and Muntage both demonstrate tactical speed from their pace figures. The competitive early fractions should set up well for horses that can rate off the pace and make sustained closing moves in the stretch.​

Key Contenders

Sams After Party stands out as the top selection based on 45 percent place probability and 68 percent show probability. The three-year-old gelding has earned over $87,000 despite never winning, with four runner-up finishes and eight third-place efforts from 14 career starts. His fastest stalker running style positions him perfectly for the pace scenario. Jockey Eliseo Ruiz maintains a 15 percent win rate with 49 percent in-the-money finishes.​

Muntage represents another strong contender with career earnings of nearly $70,000 from seven career starts. The three-year-old colt shows a fast closer running style and recently ran second at Penn National over this exact six-furlong distance. Jockey Jomar Torres (17 percent win rate, 45 percent in-the-money) provides experienced handling for trainer Todd Beattie (17 percent win rate, 58 percent in-the-money).​

Secondary Choices

Secret Journey adds appeal as a four-year-old filly competing against males with career earnings exceeding $41,000. She has compiled one runner-up finish and two third-place efforts from four career starts, showing consistency if not dominance. Jockey David Cora (19 percent win rate, 54 percent in-the-money) represents one of the stronger riders on the circuit.​

Explosive Love provides another dimension with nine career starts producing three runner-up finishes and three third-place efforts. The three-year-old gelding recently ran fourth at Penn National over this six-furlong distance and shows improvement.​

Selections

Win: Sams After Party

Place: Muntage

Show: Secret Journey

Race 8: Claiming 10000

Post Time: 9:08 PM

This six-furlong claiming sprint for three-year-old fillies or four-year-old and older fillies and mares features six runners at the $10,000 claiming level. The conditions restrict entries to horses that have never won three races.​

Pace Analysis

Multiple runners in this filly and mare sprint show early speed capabilities. Diamond Essence and Bugged Out both profile as fast leaders who can establish position early. The six-furlong distance requires quick breaks and tactical positioning through the early stages. The presence of multiple speed types could set up closing moves from runners positioned just off the pace.​

Key Contenders

Diamond Essence emerges as the top selection with 55 percent place probability and 83 percent show probability according to analytical models. The three-year-old filly shows a fast leader running style and has compiled two victories and four runner-up finishes from 12 career starts. Recent Penn National efforts demonstrate consistency over this exact six-furlong distance. The combination of jockey Angel Cruz (14 percent win rate, 36 percent in-the-money) and trainer Timothy Kreiser (20 percent win rate, 60 percent in-the-money) provides strong connections.​

Bugged Out represents another contender with three victories and four runner-up finishes from 17 career starts. The three-year-old filly earned over $122,000 and shows a fast leads running style. She won impressively at Delaware Park over six furlongs and brings tactical speed that could prove effective.​

Secondary Choices

Tempting Lady merits consideration as a secondary selection with career earnings exceeding $211,000. The four-year-old filly shows a fastest closer running style and recently ran second at Penn National over this six-furlong distance. She previously won twice at Churchill Downs and Delaware, demonstrating quality. Jockey Yabriel Ramos (16 percent win rate, 48 percent in-the-money) and trainer Bruce Kravets (16 percent win rate, 45 percent in-the-money) form a productive combination.​

Sparkling Ruby adds depth with four victories from 15 career starts. The three-year-old filly earned over $70,000 and shows a fastest closer running style. Recent efforts over route distances suggest she may prefer longer trips, though her closing kick could prove effective if the pace is honest.​

Selections

Win: Diamond Essence

Place: Bugged Out

Show: Tempting Lady

Race 9: Claiming 4000

Post Time: 9:37 PM

This six-furlong claiming sprint for three-year-old fillies and four-year-old and older fillies and mares at the $4,000 claiming level closes the evening card. The conditions restrict entries to horses that have not won since May 19.​

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario appears contested with multiple runners showing tactical speed. Warrior’s Treasure and Aruma both demonstrate stalker tendencies, while Sea Maiden shows similar pace-pressing capabilities. The competitive early fractions could set up closing moves from runners positioned mid-pack or farther back.​

Key Contenders

Warrior’s Treasure stands out as the top selection with career earnings of $132,810 and four victories from 13 career starts. The five-year-old mare maintains a 31 percent win rate with six in-the-money finishes. Her fast stalker running style suits the pace scenario perfectly. The combination of jockey Angel Rodriguez (25 percent win rate, 61 percent in-the-money) and trainer Brandon Kulp (30 percent win rate, 64 percent in-the-money) represents the strongest connections on the entire card.​

Aruma provides formidable competition with career earnings exceeding $251,000 from 33 starts. The six-year-old mare has compiled four victories, seven runner-up finishes, and nine third-place efforts. Her fastest deep running style gives her tactical flexibility to adapt to various pace scenarios.​

Secondary Choices

Sea Maiden merits consideration with career earnings over $403,000, though her recent form has been inconsistent. The five-year-old mare shows a fast stalker running style and brings class to this bottom-level claiming affair. If she recaptures her best form, she could dominate this field.​

Betcha Boots Babe adds another dimension with three victories and six runner-up finishes from 24 career starts. The four-year-old filly shows a mid-pack leader running style and recently ran seventh at Penn National. She typically runs well fresh and could offer value at generous odds.​

Selections

Win: Warrior’s Treasure

Place: Aruma

Show: Sea Maiden

Jockey Notes and Insights

Angel Rodriguez dominates the Penn National jockey colony with a 25 percent win rate and 61 percent in-the-money percentage according to recent statistics. Rodriguez has developed particularly effective partnerships with trainer Brandon Kulp, forming one of the most productive trainer-jockey combinations at the meet. He rides Whisper Roar in Race 3, Aquitania Arrival in Race 4, and Warrior’s Treasure in Race 9, giving him three strong win chances on the card.​

David Cora maintains strong statistics with a 19 percent win rate and 54 percent in-the-money finishes. Cora rides six times on the card, including mounts in Race 2 aboard Analyst, Race 5 on Kaz Ice Changer, Race 7 with Secret Journey, and Race 3 aboard Showmance. His consistency makes him a reliable choice in competitive races.​

Yabriel Ramos brings a 16 percent win rate with 48 percent in-the-money finishes to his mounts. Ramos rides five times on the card, including Sapphire Prince in Race 4, Tuxedo Knight in Race 3, and Tempting Lady in Race 8. His experience at Penn National gives him advantages in understanding track conditions and pace scenarios.​

Jomar Torres maintains an impressive 17 percent win rate with 45 percent in-the-money percentage. Torres has developed effective partnerships with multiple trainers and rides Magic Path in Race 2, Work From Home in Race 5, Muntage in Race 7, and Flinny Tin Tin in Race 9. His tactical awareness makes him particularly effective in route races.​

Ricardo Chiappe shows a 14 percent win rate with 55 percent in-the-money finishes. He rides Torotoro in Race 3, Kaz Creed in Race 4, and Vigneron in Race 7, giving him multiple opportunities throughout the card.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Brandon Kulp leads the Penn National training colony with dominant statistics showing 97 wins from 320 starts, producing a 30 percent win rate with 64 percent in-the-money finishes. Kulp has earned over $1.8 million in purse money during the current meet. He saddles Emirates Honor in Race 2, Whisper Roar in Race 3, Aquitania Arrival in Race 4, and Warrior’s Treasure in Race 9. His barn represents the strongest training operation at the meet and merits special attention when paired with top jockeys like Angel Rodriguez.​

Bruce Kravets shows impressive statistics with 52 wins from 356 starts, maintaining a 15 percent win rate and 45 percent in-the-money percentage. Kravets trains multiple horses across the card, including Designed By Smarty in Race 3, Kaz Creed and Sapphire Prince in Race 4, Lucky Lucky Luke and Rays Blue Wagon in Race 6, and Tempting Lady in Race 8. His large stable provides numerous wagering opportunities throughout the evening.​

Timothy Kreiser maintains strong statistics with 53 wins from 208 starts, producing a 20 percent win rate with 60 percent in-the-money finishes. He has earned over $1 million in purse money at the current meet. Kreiser saddles Diamond Essence in Race 8, where the filly represents one of the strongest win candidates on the entire card.​

Mark Salvaggio shows a 33 percent win rate with 67 percent in-the-money finishes according to recent statistics. He trains Great Kisser in Race 4 and Magic Path in Race 2, both representing strong contenders in their respective races.​

The Beattie training operation maintains solid statistics across the barn, with Todd Beattie showing a 17 percent win rate with 58 percent in-the-money finishes. Cody Beattie demonstrates similar competence with a 13 percent win rate and 58 percent in-the-money percentage. The Beattie family saddles multiple runners, including Ten Plus Ten and E T’s Sand Man in Race 7, plus Muntage in the same race.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The strongest win candidates on the card appear in Race 4 with Aquitania Arrival, Race 7 with Sams After Party, Race 8 with Diamond Essence, and Race 9 with Warrior’s Treasure. These four horses represent the best single-race wagering opportunities based on class, connections, and pace scenarios.​

For horizontal wagers, consider building Pick 3 sequences around the strongest races. A Pick 3 covering Races 4-5-6 could begin with Aquitania Arrival in Race 4, spread moderately in Race 5 with Home Invasion, Kaz Ice Changer, and Work From Home, then land on Wild Jaime and Chill Boss in Race 6. This provides reasonable coverage while emphasizing horses with strong trainer-jockey combinations.​

A late Pick 4 covering Races 6-7-8-9 offers excellent value potential. Key Wild Jaime in Race 6, spread with Sams After Party, Muntage, and Secret Journey in Race 7, use Diamond Essence and Bugged Out in Race 8, then land on Warrior’s Treasure in Race 9. This sequence emphasizes horses from top barns paired with leading riders.​

Daily Double opportunities present themselves throughout the card. The Race 3-4 Daily Double combining Whisper Roar with Aquitania Arrival provides solid value with two horses from the dominant Kulp barn paired with Angel Rodriguez. Similarly, the Race 8-9 Daily Double linking Diamond Essence with Warrior’s Treasure combines two horses showing excellent recent form with strong connections.​

For exacta wagering, focus on races with clear pace advantages. Race 4 sets up perfectly for an exacta box including Aquitania Arrival, Great Kisser, and Kaz Creed, as these three horses show contrasting running styles that should produce separation through the stretch. Race 8 offers similar exacta value with Diamond Essence on top over Bugged Out and Tempting Lady.​

Value plays exist in several races where public perception may not align with actual win probabilities. In Race 2, Emirates Honor could offer generous odds despite being trained by Brandon Kulp, as maiden races often produce unpredictable results. Race 3 presents value with Whisper Roar as a first-time starter from the Kulp barn, though bettors may hesitate to support unraced horses. Race 6 features Wild Jaime as a potential overlay if public money gravitates toward the early speed of Chill Boss.​

Trifecta opportunities merit attention in the competitive maiden races. Race 2 allows for creative trifecta combinations using Soo Handsome, Emirates Honor, Magic Path, and Analyst in various sequences. The route distance provides opportunities for multiple horses to be involved in the finish. Race 7 offers similar trifecta value with Sams After Party, Muntage, Secret Journey, and Explosive Love all showing capabilities to hit the board.​

For conservative bettors, focus wagering dollars on the races featuring dominant trainer-jockey combinations. The Brandon Kulp and Angel Rodriguez partnership in Race 4 with Aquitania Arrival and Race 9 with Warrior’s Treasure provides the highest probability win plays on the entire card. These two horses merit serious win consideration and anchor positions in multi-race wagers.​

Penn National’s evening racing under lights can sometimes produce track conditions that seal slightly, potentially benefiting horses with tactical speed over pure closers. Monitor how early races develop to assess whether speed is holding or closers are making effective moves. Adjust wagering strategies accordingly for later races based on observed patterns.

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