Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. The report is prepared by one of our Pick Pony analysts, so selections may differ from , which are based on the consensus of all analysts.
Penn National presents nine competitive races on Thursday, October 30, 2025, with challenging weather conditions and a solid field of local runners competing across various claiming and allowance levels. The evening card features purses ranging from $14,000 to $39,000, with post times beginning at 5:45 PM Eastern.
Track Conditions and Weather
Current conditions at Penn National show light rain with temperatures at 49°F and east-northeast winds at 16 mph. The forecast calls for continued rain throughout the day with cloudy skies, highs near 59°F, and a 90% chance of precipitation. The dirt track was listed as fast as of the most recent update. Wet conditions typically favor horses with proven mud or off-track experience at Penn National.
Race 1 – PA-Bred Fillies and Mares Allowance (5:45 PM)
This six-furlong allowance for Pennsylvania-bred fillies and mares carries a $39,000 purse and features horses that have never won a PA-restricted race other than maiden, claiming, or starter events.
Key Contenders: Caprice draws attention as the 5-2 morning line favorite with Angel Cruz aboard for trainer Cathal Lynch. The combination of Cruz, who has 116 wins from 756 starts in 2025, and Lynch, who maintains a 25% win rate at Penn National, provides strong connections. Night Quest, also trained by Lynch with Daniel Centeno riding, offers value at longer odds and represents a viable upset candidate.
Pace Analysis: The six-furlong distance should set up as a speed duel between the early runners, with tactical speed becoming crucial in the stretch. Rain conditions may favor horses with proven wet-track experience.
Selection: Caprice represents the class of the field with solid connections and should handle the surface conditions.
Race 2 – Starter Optional Claiming (6:14 PM)
This $23,000 starter optional claiming event for three-year-olds and upward at six furlongs features horses that have started for $5,000 or less since October 30, 2024, or can be claimed for $12,500.
Key Contenders: Neon Sign emerges as the 3-1 morning line choice with David Cora aboard for trainer Timothy Kreiser. The gelding brings consistent form and tactical speed that could prove decisive. Commingling offers value with Jomar Torres riding for trainer Cody Beattie, though recent scratches suggest some underlying issues to monitor.
Secondary Choices: Ellie’s Boyfriend with Angel Rodriguez provides depth in the field and could hit the board at generous odds.
Selection: Neon Sign appears best suited for the conditions and class level.
Race 3 – Claiming $10,000 (6:43 PM)
The one mile and 70-yard claiming race carries a $16,000 purse for three-year-olds and upward that have never won two races.
Key Contenders: Rocket Night stands out as the 7-2 choice with Andy Hernandez aboard for trainer Hugo Padilla. The four-year-old gelding brings tactical speed and should appreciate the added distance. The Man to See offers experience in similar conditions, while Brady provides value despite recent scratches suggesting potential issues.
Pace Analysis: The longer distance should allow for pace development, with horses saving ground and making late runs likely to benefit in wet conditions.
Selection: Rocket Night appears best positioned for success at this level.
Race 4 – Two-Year-Old Allowance (7:12 PM)
This $35,000 allowance for two-year-olds at six furlongs represents one of the evening’s most competitive events, featuring horses that have never won races other than maiden, claiming, starter, or Pennsylvania-bred events.
Key Contenders Analysis
Red Zone Runner emerges as the standout choice based on recent form and proven class. The Erin McClellan-trained colt scored an impressive victory at Parx Racing on September 19, 2025, defeating several runners in today’s field including Guitar Money by just 0.3 lengths. With Jomar Torres returning to the irons after their successful partnership, this combination brings winning momentum into today’s allowance company.
Guitar Money provides the primary threat after finishing a strong second to Red Zone Runner in their most recent encounter. The T. Bernard Houghton-trained gelding showed he belongs at this level by staying within striking distance throughout that race and may appreciate the slight cutback in distance. David Cora takes the mount for a trainer who recently scored a 1-2 finish in stakes company.
Expresso Bay represents the most intriguing value play in the field. The Todd Beattie-trained colt demolished a maiden field at Penn National in August, winning as the 7-10 favorite by an impressive 7½ lengths in a performance that suggested genuine ability. Leonardo Corujo rides for a trainer with graded stakes experience who knows how to develop young horses.
Secondary Choices
Rudiobus provides trainer Erin McClellan with a second starter in the race. The two-year-old colt carries top weight of 120 pounds with Inoel Beato aboard and represents the trainer’s depth in juvenile talent. McClellan’s success with two-year-olds at Penn National makes this runner a logical contender despite limited public information about his recent form.
Follow the Fellow brings proven ability after capturing a race at Monmouth Park on August 15, 2025, with Chantal Sutherland aboard for trainer Chuck Spina. Anthony Salgado takes over the riding duties for this assignment, and the colt’s experience at different tracks could prove valuable in this competitive field.
Coloma rounds out the field for the potent combination of trainer Cathal Lynch and jockey Angel Cruz. Lynch maintains excellent statistics at Penn National with a 25% win rate, while Cruz continues his strong 2025 campaign with over 100 victories.
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong distance should develop into a tactical speed battle early, with Red Zone Runner and Guitar Money likely to be prominent based on their September 19 encounter. Expresso Bay showed the ability to duel early before drawing clear in his maiden victory, suggesting tactical versatility that could prove decisive. The pace scenario favors horses with proven early tactical speed who can sustain their effort through the stretch.
Key Angles
The September 19 Parx Racing form between Red Zone Runner and Guitar Money provides the most reliable recent indicator for today’s race. Both horses competed at a similar level and showed they belong in allowance company. Expresso Bay’s impressive debut victory at this same track gives him home court advantage and suggests improvement from that effort.
Trainer Erin McClellan’s double-barrel approach with Red Zone Runner and Rudiobus demonstrates confidence in her two-year-old division. The connections have proven success developing young horses at Penn National and understand the track’s unique characteristics.
Track Conditions Impact
The expected wet conditions favor horses with proven ability to handle off-track surfaces. Red Zone Runner and Guitar Money both raced successfully on a fast track at Parx, while Expresso Bay’s Penn National debut came on the main track, providing familiarity with local conditions.
Wagering Strategy
Win Consideration: Red Zone Runner offers the best combination of recent form, class, and connections at morning line odds that should provide value.
Place/Show: Expresso Bay merits strong consideration for place and show wagering based on his impressive debut and the likelihood of improvement in his second start.
Exacta Strategy: Key Red Zone Runner over Guitar Money and Expresso Bay, while using Guitar Money and Expresso Bay over each other in the second position.
Trifecta: Red Zone Runner and Guitar Money on top, with Expresso Bay, Rudiobus, and Follow the Fellow filling out the bottom of the trifecta combinations.
Race Selection
Top Pick: Red Zone Runner – Recent winning form against today’s competition and proven connections make him the logical choice.
Value Play: Expresso Bay – His dominant debut victory suggests untapped ability, and the track familiarity provides an edge at likely generous odds.
Exacta: Red Zone Runner over Guitar Money based on their head-to-head meeting where class and connections proved decisive.
The race sets up as a battle between proven recent form and untapped potential, with wet track conditions adding another variable to consider in wagering decisions.
Race 5 – Fillies and Mares Claiming $25,000 (7:41 PM)
This $28,000 claiming race for fillies and mares features horses that have not won since July 30 or have never won four races.
Key Contenders: Three Polks emerges as the 9-5 morning line choice with Angel Rodriguez aboard for trainer Brandon Kulp. Firstlady Rosalynn provides value with Angel Cruz riding for trainer Michael Trombetta, bringing proven connections to the event.
Analysis: The claiming level and recent form restrictions suggest a competitive field where pace and track conditions will play significant roles.
Selection: Three Polks offers the best value at the morning line odds.
Race 6 – Starter Optional Claiming (8:10 PM)
This $21,000 starter optional claiming event at one mile and 70 yards features horses that have started for $16,000 or less and have never won three races.
Key Contenders: Notturno draws interest as the 5-1 choice with Julio Hernandez aboard for trainer Michael Matz. Max’s Glory offers value with Jomar Torres riding for trainer Chuck Spina, though recent scratches require attention.
Selection: Notturno brings class and proven connections for the distance.
Race 7 – Fillies and Mares Allowance (8:39 PM)
This $35,000 allowance for fillies and mares at six furlongs represents one of the evening’s most competitive events, featuring horses that have never won races other than maiden, claiming, starter, or Pennsylvania-bred events.
Key Contenders Analysis
Tudox Dahlia emerges as the standout selection after her impressive victory at Penn National on August 30, 2025, where she won a $39,000 race decisively. The three-year-old filly trained by Elisha Perez and ridden by Jomar Torres brings winning momentum into today’s similar allowance company. Her recent form suggests genuine improvement, and the combination with Torres, who rode her to victory in August, provides confidence in the partnership.
Dakota Springs represents the primary threat based on her consistent recent form and strong local connections. The four-year-old filly trained by Brandon Kulp scored a victory at Penn National on July 25, 2025, and followed with a creditable third-place finish in allowance company. Angel Rodriguez returns to ride for trainer Kulp, a combination that maintains a 29% win rate and 64% in-the-money percentage at Penn National. Her recent form pattern of 119311 indicates she belongs at this level.
Missy Sixtysix provides excellent value as the third choice based on her consistent placing record and trainer Michael Moore’s proven success with fillies. The four-year-old chestnut daughter of Hoppertunity finished third over 1408 meters at Parx Racing in her most recent start and appears “close to a win after a string of minor placings”. Eliseo Ruiz takes the mount for a filly with career earnings of $254,169 and a record of 21-3-5-10.
Secondary Choices
Cardinal War Cry brings tactical speed and proven class to the allowance level. The daughter of Irish War Cry shows a 27% win rate and 64% show rate in recent form, with a running style described as “Fastest Leads”. Anthony Salgado rides for trainer Michael Salvaggio Jr., and her recent form of 3-4-7 suggests she remains competitive at this level.
Lastchance Romance represents trainer Erin McClellan’s depth in the filly division. The four-year-old has shown a 25% win rate and 50% show rate in recent campaigns and brings experience in similar Penn National allowance company. Emilio Flores takes the mount for a trainer with a 31% win rate and 58% in-the-money percentage.
Normandy Life rounds out the field with George Albright training and Ricardo Chiappe riding. Her recent form of 646154 indicates she has been competitive in claiming company but faces a significant class test in today’s allowance event.
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong distance should develop into a tactical battle early, with Cardinal War Cry likely to show early speed based on her “Fastest Leads” running style. Tudox Dahlia demonstrated the ability to rate kindly before drawing clear in her August victory, suggesting tactical flexibility that could prove decisive. Dakota Springs brings proven tactical speed that allows her to be forwardly placed without excessive early effort.
Key Angles
Tudox Dahlia’s impressive August 30 victory at this same track provides the strongest recent form in the race. Her ability to win decisively in similar company suggests she has found her optimal class level and distance. The return engagement with Jomar Torres, who rode her to that victory, strengthens the selection.
Dakota Springs brings the advantage of proven success at Penn National combined with strong local connections. Her July 25 victory followed by competitive efforts demonstrates she belongs at this level and can handle the track conditions.
The class relief factor favors several runners stepping up from claiming company, particularly Missy Sixtysix, who has shown consistent ability to hit the board in tougher spots.
Track Conditions Impact
The expected wet conditions favor horses with proven ability on off-track surfaces. Tudox Dahlia’s August victory came on a fast track at Penn National, providing familiarity with local conditions. Dakota Springs has shown versatility in various track conditions throughout her career.
Trainer and Jockey Considerations
The combination of Brandon Kulp and Angel Rodriguez with Dakota Springs represents one of the meet’s most successful partnerships, with both showing strong statistics at Penn National. Jomar Torres brings proven success with Tudox Dahlia and maintains solid overall statistics for the meet.
Wagering Strategy
Win Consideration: Tudox Dahlia offers the best combination of recent winning form and class suitability at morning line odds that should provide value.
Place/Show: Dakota Springs merits strong consideration for place and show wagering based on her consistency and strong connections.
Exacta Strategy: Key Tudox Dahlia over Dakota Springs and Missy Sixtysix, while using Dakota Springs over Missy Sixtysix in the second position.
Trifecta: Tudox Dahlia and Dakota Springs on top, with Missy Sixtysix, Cardinal War Cry, and Lastchance Romance filling out the trifecta combinations.
Value Considerations
Missy Sixtysix appears undervalued based on her consistent placing record and the likelihood that her recent Parx Racing form translates well to Penn National. Cardinal War Cry offers potential value if she can secure an uncontested early lead.
Race Selection
Top Pick: Tudox Dahlia – Her impressive recent victory in similar company combined with proven track familiarity makes her the logical choice.
Value Play: Missy Sixtysix – Her consistent placing record and apparent readiness to win suggest she offers excellent value at likely generous odds.
Exacta: Tudox Dahlia over Dakota Springs based on recent form superiority and class considerations.
The race shapes up as a battle between proven recent winners and consistent placers, with wet track conditions potentially favoring horses with tactical speed who can adapt to changing circumstances throughout the six-furlong journey.
Race 8 – Maiden Claiming $10,000 (9:08 PM)
The $15,000 maiden claiming race at one mile provides opportunities for first-time winners among three-year-olds and upward.
Key Contenders: Emirates Honor draws attention as the 5-2 favorite with Angel Rodriguez riding for trainer Brandon Kulp. The combination provides solid connections for maiden runners. Manhattan Charlie offers value with Ricardo Chiappe aboard.
Selection: Emirates Honor brings the best connections for maiden company.
Race 9 – Claiming $7,500 (9:37 PM)
The evening concludes with a $14,000 claiming race at one mile for horses that have not won since July 30.
Key Contenders: Tactical Humor emerges as the 2-1 favorite with Angel Rodriguez aboard for trainer Brandon Kulp. The combination has proven successful throughout the meet. Rustys Gfivefifty provides value with Emilio Flores riding.
Selection: Tactical Humor offers the best value at the closing odds.
Jockey Notes
Angel Cruz continues his strong 2025 campaign with 116 wins from 756 starts, maintaining solid statistics at Penn National. His mounts in Races 1, 2, and 5 deserve attention based on his current form and local track knowledge.
Angel Rodriguez brings proven success at Penn National with a 24% win rate and 60% in-the-money percentage. His mounts in multiple races provide consistent wagering opportunities.
Jomar Torres maintains steady statistics with a 17% win rate and should be considered on his mounts throughout the card.
Trainer Notes
Cathal Lynch stands out with exceptional statistics at Penn National, showing a 25% win rate and 65% in-the-money percentage. His runners in Race 1 deserve strong consideration based on his local success.
Brandon Kulp maintains a 29% win rate and 65% in-the-money percentage, making his multiple runners attractive wagering propositions.
Erin McClellan brings multiple runners to the card and has shown consistent results at the claiming and allowance levels.
Wagering Strategy
The wet track conditions create opportunities for value plays on horses with proven off-track experience. Focus on exacta and trifecta wagers in races with competitive fields, particularly Races 3, 5, and 9 where claiming horses provide better value than allowance runners.
The Super High Five jackpot at $1,544 provides additional betting interest for the late pick five sequence. Consider keying strong favorites in the early legs while spreading in the more competitive claiming races.
Weather conditions favor patient handicappers willing to wait for horses with proven wet-track experience and strong local connections throughout the nine-race program.
