Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet for Fair Grounds Race Course – Racing News and Analysis for March 21, 2026


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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

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Louisiana Derby day at Fair Grounds offers a 14-race card anchored by the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (Race 12), the Fair Grounds Oaks (Race 11), the Muniz Memorial Classic on turf (Race 10), and the New Orleans Classic on dirt (Race 9), supported by multiple stakes for older horses and Louisiana-breds.

The card has large, competitive fields with a mix of local runners and high-profile shippers from top barns such as Brad Cox, Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, Doug O'Neill, Bob Baffert, and others, particularly concentrated in the stakes in Races 9 through 12.

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecasts for New Orleans on March 21 call for a sunny to partly sunny afternoon, with temperatures in the low to mid-70s, light southeast to southwest winds around 5 to 10 mph, and a very low chance of precipitation. These conditions strongly support a fast main track and firm to good turf, removing the uncertainty associated with off tracks or yielding turf and favoring horses who have previously performed well on dry, conventional surfaces.

Track Bias and Post Position Notes

Historical profiles show that Fair Grounds' main track routes (one mile and beyond) have a relatively fair distribution by post, with posts 1 and 2 slightly above average but no overwhelming inside or outside dominance, though the short run into the first turn can be tricky for wide-drawn speed.

In main-track sprints, inside draws have historically done very well, with posts 1 and 2 providing an advantage and deeper outside gates generally underperforming; early speed and forwardly placed runners have also had an edge in recent meet samples.

On turf, inside and mid-pack posts tend to be a bit more productive than far outside slots, and the deep, unique Fair Grounds turf course often rewards horses with prior success over the local lawn and runners capable of a strong, sustained late kick off honest fractions.

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight – 1 1/16 Miles Turf

Early pace looks moderate to honest with Road Trippin (1) and Fast Connection (6) forwardly placed. Royal Causeway (9) brings top connections with Tyler Gaffalione and Dallas Stewart. Mount Vernon (2) and Prepped (5), both from Cherie DeVaux's barn, form a strong entry-like pairing. Taterpie (8) is a key tactical contender with Luis Saez. Tranquillo (7) and Classic Tap (3) are secondary closers, though Classic Tap has main-track-only scratch history. Swerve (4) could be a late-developing longshot.

Race 2: Fasig-Tipton Crescent City Oaks – 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt

Several fillies have tactical or outright early speed, including Thrill Seeker (1), Braken Poppa (2), Fade To Gold (4), and What's Love (6). BRAKEN POPPA (2) for Steve Asmussen with Jose Ortiz looks like a major player. FADE TO GOLD (4) for Tom Amoss is another key contender. THRILL SEEKER (1) benefits from an inside post. Miss Amber Q (5) and Play On Player (7) are secondary choices, while Chicka Chick (3) is a longshot.

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight – 1 1/16 Miles Dirt

Direct Strike (4), Marauder (5), and Paul's Recovery (1) show speed or tactical pace. DIRECT STRIKE (4) from Brad Cox with Flavien Prat is the logical key horse. MARAUDER (5) for Steve Asmussen has high-upside connections. Tiernanogue (8) for Brendan Walsh is a major late threat. Double Entendre (6) from DeVaux with Ortiz is dangerous. Get Them Roses (3) and PAUL'S RECOVERY (1) are secondary stalkers. Regal Star (2) and Royal Seal (7) are longshots.

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight – 6 Furlongs Dirt

Fast and contested pace likely with Mouqeer (5), Hot Days Ahead (7), Rock Music (8), Arabian Power (9), and Exhilaration (1). ROCK MUSIC (8) for Brad Cox with Flavien Prat brings top connections. MOUQEER (5) for Steve Asmussen is a huge pace player. This Is Your Time (6) for Greg Foley should get a stalking trip. Great Moment (3) and ARABIAN POWER (9) are secondary finishers. El Maximo (4), HOT DAYS AHEAD (7), and Tamino (10) are longshots.

Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt

Strong early pace with Autie (1), Conejo Chapin (2), Dapper Moon (4), Free Scrim (6), and Mister Banderas (10). MISTER BANDERAS (10) for Tom Amoss with Jose Ortiz looks like a major player. AUTIE (1) for Steve Asmussen should have rail speed. FREE SCRIM (6) for Albert Stall Jr. can sit just off the pace. Bandido Deal (11), CONEJO CHAPIN (2), and Prodigy Paradise (3) are secondary choices. G'wildcat (7), Lauri's Wish (8), Hi Yah (9), and Achromedoutcat (5) are longshots, with Achromedoutcat off a veterinarian scratch.

Race 6: Tom Benson Memorial – 1 1/16 Miles Turf

Honest pace with Way To Be Marie (3), Cupids Crush (5), and Sea To Sky (6) showing tactical speed. SEA TO SKY (6) for Cherie DeVaux with Jose Ortiz is a key player. Gavea (7) for Al Stall Jr. with Flavien Prat is another prime contender. WAY TO BE MARIE (3) brings tactical speed and quality. For Love And Honor (4), Ready For Shirl (1), and CUPIDS CRUSH (5) are secondary players. Sophie's Cruiser (2) is an outsider longshot.

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight – 6 Furlongs Dirt

Loaded maiden sprint with many speed elements: Armet (3), Radar Lock (4), Range Goat (5), Saint Of War (7), Bearister (8), and Mr. All In (11). ARMET (3) for Steve Asmussen with Luis Saez is a logical key horse. Not To Worry (9) for Cherie DeVaux with Jose Ortiz is a major off-the-pace contender. Chianti Town (1) for Dallas Stewart holds the rail. RADAR LOCK (4), MR. ALL IN (11), and Mo The Merrier (10) are secondary players. Impractical (2), RANGE GOAT (5), Essence Of Knicks (6), BEARISTER (8), and SAINT OF WAR (7) are longshots, with Bearister and Mr. All In having prior scratches.

Race 8: Costa Rising Stakes – 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf

Big field with multiple speedsters: Nine Part (1), Hay Jude (3), Sassi D (4), Monsieur Candy (5), Big Chopper (7), Chad's Flashy Ways (8), and Smash It (10). MONSIEUR CANDY (5) is a major contender. Strong Promise (2) has been highlighted as a live horse with strong turf sprint record. NINE PART (1) draws the rail with Jose Ortiz. BIG CHOPPER (7), SMASH IT (10), Clear As A Bele (6), and HAY JUDE (3) are secondary choices. SASSI D (4), CHAD'S FLASHY WAYS (8), Sounds Like Power (9), Take Charge J J (11), Dr. My Eyes (12), and Buy The Rights (13) are longshots, with Sounds Like Power and Take Charge J J having prior scratches.

Race 9: New Orleans Classic – 1 1/8 Miles Dirt

Solid pace with Touchuponastar (2) and Westwood (1) showing early speed. Accelerize (3) from Todd Pletcher with John Velazquez is a key contender. Corporate Power (6) for Steve Asmussen is another major player. Life And Times (4) for Pletcher is a dangerous closer. WESTWOOD (1) ships in off a trainer scratch from Santa Anita. Not This Boy (5) and TOUCHUPONASTAR (2) are secondary choices in the small six-horse field.

Race 10: Muniz Memorial Classic – 1 1/8 Miles Turf

Controlled pace with Tom's Magic (5) and Lagynos (4) having tactical speed. Program Trading (7) for Chad Brown with Flavien Prat is a major contender. Montador (2) for Mike Stidham is a key local player. LAGYNOS (4) for Steve Asmussen is another serious threat. TOM'S MAGIC (5), Chasing The Crown (1), and Idratherbeblessed (3) are secondary contenders. Faber (6) is the longest shot.

Race 11: Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks – 1 1/16 Miles Dirt

Honest pace with Luv Your Neighbor (4) and Life Of Joy (6) having early speed. LIFE OF JOY (6) for Brad Cox with Flavien Prat has been singled out as a key filly. Bella Ballerina (5) for Brendan Walsh is another primary contender. Love And Trust (7) for Cherie DeVaux is top-class. LUV YOUR NEIGHBOR (4), Maximum Offer (3), and Newtown Pike (2) are secondary choices, with Newtown Pike a stakes scratch from a prior Honeybee entry. Miss Metoyer (1) is a longshot.

Race 12: Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby – 1 3/16 Miles Dirt

Solid, honest pace with Pavlovian (1), Autobahn (2), Chip Honcho (3), Spirit Of Royal (6), and Blacksmith (7) having tactical speed. Emerging Market (9) from Chad Brown with Flavien Prat is widely regarded as a serious contender. AUTOBAHN (2) for Brad Cox is another key contender. BLACKSMITH (7) for Bob Baffert is dangerous on pure talent but ineligible for Derby points. Golden Tempo (5), Universe (4), PAVLOVIAN (1), and CHIP HONCHO (3) are secondary choices. SPIRIT OF ROYAL (6) and Easterly (8) are longshots. The race is fairly wide-open with no true standout.

Race 13: Maiden Special Weight – 1 Mile Turf

Honest early tempo with Determined Dancer (1), Prima Donna (3), Good Family (5), Angels Envy (4), and Al Latafah (7) forwardly placed. GOOD FAMILY (5) for Brad Cox is a major contender. DETERMINED DANCER (1) for Cherie DeVaux with Jose Ortiz is another key player. PRIMA DONNA (3) for Mike Stidham shapes up well. Not That Simple (6), the second DeVaux filly, is dangerous. AL LATAFAH (7) and More Sweeter (8) from Brendan Walsh form a strong barn pair. Heavenly Melody (9) and Federal Force (10) are secondary choices. Mighty Hankerin (11), Raspberry (12), Mothertwotheblues (13), Raging Bloom (14), Twirling Daisy (15), and Angelic Katie (2) are longshots, with Raspberry and Twirling Daisy having prior scratches.

Race 14: Maiden Special Weight – 6 Furlongs Dirt

Very fast and contested early pace with Dirty Straight Up (1), Seize The Port (2), Charlie Prime (3), Shalom (4), Hms Diamond (6), Slewssongofthenile (7), Wildly Wicked (8), Soft Hands (9), Westbrook (10), My Touch (11), and A Lotta Shance (12). MY TOUCH (11) for Keith Bourgeois with Jose Ortiz is a key contender. DIRTY STRAIGHT UP (1) for Bret Calhoun has the rail. SOFT HANDS (9) is crucial despite a prior steward scratch. HMS DIAMOND (6) and WESTBROOK (10) from Shane Wilson form a stable duo. SHALOM (4), SEIZE THE PORT (2), and SLEWSSONGOFTHENILE (7) are mid-level secondary types. CHARLIE PRIME (3), WILDLY WICKED (8), Ray Mefasolateedoe (5), and A LOTTA SHANCE (12) are deeper longshots.

Jockey Notes

Tyler Gaffalione has mounts on several key contenders, including Tiernanogue (3rd, 8), This Is Your Time (4th, 6), Chianti Town (7th, 1), Bella Ballerina (11th, 5), and Montador (10th, 2). Jose Ortiz rides strong contenders across the card, including Mount Vernon (1st, 2), Braken Poppa (2nd, 2), Double Entendre (3rd, 6), Not To Worry (7th, 9), Nine Part (8th, 1), Lagynos (10th, 4), Love And Trust (11th, 7), Golden Tempo (12th, 5), Determined Dancer (13th, 1), and My Touch (14th, 11). Flavien Prat has a powerful book that includes Direct Strike (3rd, 4), Rock Music (4th, 8), Gavea (6th, 7), Life And Times (9th, 4), Program Trading (10th, 7), Life Of Joy (11th, 6), Emerging Market (12th, 9), and Not That Simple (13th, 6). Luis Saez rides Taterpie (1st, 8), Marauder (3rd, 5), Mouqeer (4th, 5), Autie (5th, 1), Way To Be Marie (6th, 3), Armet (7th, 3), Dr. My Eyes (8th, 12), Corporate Power (9th, 6), Tom's Magic (10th, 5), Luv Your Neighbor (11th, 4), and Chip Honcho (12th, 3).

Trainer Notes

Brad Cox brings a deep string that includes Direct Strike (3rd, 4), Rock Music (4th, 8), Arabian Power (4th, 9), Life Of Joy (11th, 6), Autobahn (12th, 2), Easterly (12th, 8), and Good Family (13th, 5). Cherie DeVaux is exceptionally live across turf and dirt routes, with Mount Vernon (1st, 2), Prepped (1st, 5), Double Entendre (3rd, 6), Not To Worry (7th, 9), Sea To Sky (6th, 6), Love And Trust (11th, 7), Golden Tempo (12th, 5), Determined Dancer (13th, 1), and Not That Simple (13th, 6). Todd Pletcher ships in Accelerize (9th, 3) and Life And Times (9th, 4), while Chad Brown brings Program Trading (10th, 7) and Emerging Market (12th, 9). Steve Asmussen has Braken Poppa (2nd, 2), Marauder (3rd, 5), Armet (7th, 3), Corporate Power (9th, 6), Lagynos (10th, 4), and Chip Honcho (12th, 3). Doug O'Neill has Pavlovian (12th, 1) and Bob Baffert brings Blacksmith (12th, 7).

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