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Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet for Fair Grounds Race Course – Racing News and Analysis for March 22, 2026

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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

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Closing day at Fair Grounds offers a classic Louisiana-bred–heavy card with four stakes (Crescent City Derby, Shantel Lanerie Memorial, Ova Charged, Star Guitar) anchoring a 13-race program split between dirt and turf. The stakes races feature some of the most accomplished statebreds on the grounds, including undefeated sprint star Synthetic (5) in the Ova Charged Stakes (race 11) and last year's Crescent City Derby winner Sippin On Gin (7) now favored in the Star Guitar Stakes (race 12). With mild spring conditions and no significant rain expected, both main track and turf course are projected to play on the fast/firm side, which should favor horses with tactical speed and proven Fair Grounds form. The overall profile of the meet has leaned slightly toward forwardly-placed runners on dirt, while turf has rewarded both speed in sprints and more balanced style distributions in routes.

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecasts for New Orleans on March 22 call for daytime highs in the low to mid 70s Fahrenheit with lows near 60, under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and minimal precipitation. Historical climate data for late March in New Orleans shows average highs around 70–73 degrees and relatively modest rainfall, consistent with a fast main track and firm to good turf when no recent storms intervene. A detailed point forecast for March 22 indicates dry conditions, light winds around 5–10 mph, and no significant rain events, all of which support firm footing and fair conditions for both dirt and turf runners. Today should be handicapped as a standard dry-track card, with no built-in expectation of off tracks or soft turf.

Track Bias and Post Position Profile

Recent Fair Grounds stats through March 16 show the dirt track slightly tilted toward horses with at least tactical speed, particularly in sprints, while routes have been more neutral but still not strongly favoring deep closers. Turf sprints at this meet have shown a relatively high wire-to-wire percentage (about one-third) with inside and rail trips performing well, whereas turf routes have produced fewer wire jobs and more success for outside-drawn stalkers and pace-pressers. Longer-term post position data also indicates a mild advantage to inside posts in dirt sprints, with stalls 1–2 historically winning a larger share, while route races show a more even spread but still a small inside lean; on turf, inside and mid-pack posts have been most productive, with some decline in wide outside gates. The track's long Fair Grounds stretch means sustained late kick remains a weapon, but on a fast, honest surface the most reliable profile tends to be pressing or stalking trips just off the early leaders rather than deep closer styles.

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt (LA-bred fillies and mares)

Pace: Moderate pace with several capable of securing forward position. Dewey's Soldier (1) and Krafts Palace (2) should be prominent early from inside draws, while Mojane Metal (8) figures forwardly placed from outside. Sweet Aurora G (9) can sit just behind that group.

Key Contenders: Dewey's Soldier (1) gets the rail and projects to secure the pocket behind or on the lead, with the one-mile configuration putting a premium on saving ground. Mojane Metal (8) brings a live barn and can track the rail speed, avoid traffic, and get first run turning for home. Sweet Aurora G (9) fits the condition well with tactical speed to sit just off the pace in the clear.

Secondary Choices: Krafts Palace (2) sits inside and should be in the first flight but looks more grinding than accelerating. Kylie's Knight (4) fits the level though may lack the turn of foot to take advantage of a moderate pace. Cause We Can (6) shows some ability with blinkers added.

Longshots: Kisses For Cooper (3) and Mo Vista (7) appear more exposed and need both a pace meltdown and improvement. Coach's Memory (5) looks like another using the spot for experience.

Race 2 – Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt (LA-bred)

Pace: Several here are capable of showing early foot: Azteca Storm (1), Humor Me Boy (3), Greatizlove (4), and Hustlin' Man (9) all have sprint speed potential. This looks like a legitimate to strong pace, making a pace-pressing trip ideal.

Key Contenders: Closing Agent (5) drops into a softer maiden-claiming spot and should get a stalking trip just outside the early speed. Hustlin' Man (9) has had multiple vet scratches but returns in a spot that suits his speed profile, with the outside post giving his rider options. Azteca Storm (1) from the rail is almost compelled to go, and that inside speed could carry him a long way.

Secondary Choices: Greatizlove (4) and Humor Me Boy (3), stablemates, both can show speed but may not finish strongly if fractions are honest. Ocean Voyager (2) has experience and should save ground, dangerous for minor awards. Fruit Basket (8) is lightly raced with an improving pattern possible.

Longshots: Mr. Brad's Cowboy (6) could improve second off a layoff. Taurean (7) is a seven-year-old maiden who can be forward but tends to fade late.

Race 3 – Starter Optional Claiming, 5.5 Furlongs Dirt

Pace: Disco Ball (3) retains enough speed to be a pace factor, with Loudermilk (4) and Briterdayzahead (5) both capable of showing early speed. The early fractions should be honest, setting up well for a stalker who can sit third to fifth and pounce.

Key Contenders: Disco Ball (3) comes from a high-percentage barn that excels with sprinters at this level, and even as a nine-year-old, he has retained competitive speed figures. Charco (7) has had main-track-only scratches recently but finds a dirt sprint where his pace-pressing style fits ideally. We Miss Arlington (1) draws the rail and could be closer early than his prior running style suggests.

Secondary Choices: Briterdayzahead (5) and Loudermilk (4) are both viable pace players who could take advantage if Disco Ball (3) underperforms. Double Edge Sword (2) and Peso In My Pocket (6) are midpack grinders who depend on a hot pace.

Longshots: Solidify (8) is a ten-year-old who has made a living at this level and can pass tired horses late to get into the superfecta.

Race 4 – Starter Optional Claiming, 7.5 Furlongs Turf (F&M)

Pace: Several here with tactical speed: Hittin My Stride (1), Gypsan (3), Slam Diego (4), and Roar Of Silence (6) all can be involved early. Pace appears honest but not extreme, which should favor a press/stalk type capable of finishing strongly.

Key Contenders: Gypsan (3) gets a high-profile turf rider from a barn that points aggressively at these starter optional turf spots, with tactical speed to secure a spot in the first flight. Roar Of Silence (6) looks like an ideal pace-pressing type drawn toward the outside. Hittin My Stride (1) has had recent vet scratches but the inside draw and tactical speed make her dangerous if ready.

Secondary Choices: Slam Diego (4) is a seasoned mare who often knocks heads in these mid-level turf claimers and should be close to the front. Madison Rae (9) and April's Gem (5) are midpack closers who will appreciate any scenario where the leaders overdo it early.

Longshots: Im Singled Up (2) was previously entered in a main-track-only spot and may be more effective routing on dirt. Cheyenne Moon (8), Start Singing (7), and Foreign Tourist (10) need a step forward or perfect trip.

Race 5 – Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt (LA-bred F&M NW2L)

Pace: Star Of Astrology (1), La Palabra (2), Vanna G (7), Rose Hill Rocket (9), and Mom's Hands (11) all have enough speed to be prominent, projecting a strong and contested early pace. With multiple speed types, a meltdown is possible, giving stalkers a real chance.

Key Contenders: Vanna G (7) is favored by public handicappers with strong expected ranking, combining tactical speed and finishing ability at this class. That's The Deal (6) is another top-rated contender whose running style is suited to this pace scenario. Sweet Thirteen (8) has prior vet scratches but remains well-regarded as one of the most likely win candidates if sound.

Secondary Choices: La Palabra (2) and Rose Hill Rocket (9) show up as legitimate underneath threats. Mom's Hands (11) is a wide-drawn speed type who might be forced to use energy early. Star Of Astrology (1), Our Indian Girl (3), and Micheline Gail (4) are more experienced but seem a notch below the top-rated trio.

Longshots: Insipid (10) and Wickey Bibby (5) offer upside as lightly-raced or weight-advantaged types but need improvement to beat the well-established favorites.

Race 6 – Maiden Optional Claiming, 5.5 Furlongs Turf

Pace: Iceberg Slim (5), Turbo Launch (6), Bad Joke (8), and Ain't Dere No Mo (9) all have the profiles of quick turf sprinters. With several speedsters, the pace should be strong, and tactical speed just off the lead is ideal.

Key Contenders: Iceberg Slim (5) comes from a barn that is extremely dangerous with turf sprinters, and he should be able to break sharply and either clear or sit just off the initial speed. Turbo Launch (6) represents a high-percentage turf barn effective with lightly-raced types cutting back to sprints. Ain't Dere No Mo (9) has gate issues in his past but his raw early speed is undeniable if he breaks cleanly.

Secondary Choices: Razorcat (1) with a rail draw may be able to save all the ground and let the outside speeds do the work. Got Stripes (2) and Blue Chair Bay (3) both come from barns capable of moving a horse up on turf.

Longshots: Joe's Candy (4) is an older maiden with strong connections whose late-running style might be compromised. Gazar (7) has vet scratch history which raises caution. Bad Joke (8) has speed but will have to work from his post.

Race 7 – Crescent City Derby, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt (LA-bred 3yo stakes)

Pace: Our Moneyman (5) has tactical speed and a high likelihood of being sent to secure position near the front, with Bubby (2) and Lafitte's Legacy (3) likely in close attendance. With a compact six-horse field, the pace could be honest but controlled, making it difficult for deep closers.

Key Contenders: Our Moneyman (5) is rated as a strong favorite by multiple public handicappers from a top barn with an excellent record in Fair Grounds Louisiana-bred stakes. Bubby (2) is clearly the second choice in expert rankings whose pace-pressing style fits today's race flow. Wherethehitsare (4) looks to sit just behind the main pace duo and could capitalize if those two hook up in a duel.

Secondary Choices: Lafitte's Legacy (3) figures to be in the second flight just off the leaders and is very usable underneath. Vitruvius (6) may benefit if the race falls apart late, with an outside draw to avoid traffic. Mogumbeaux (1) has the rail but may be overmatched against the top trio.

Race 8 – Shantel Lanerie Memorial Stakes, 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt (LA-bred F&M stakes)

Pace: Blue Fire (1) and Canal Street (5) both possess tactical speed and could vie for the lead or sit right off each other. Margie's Intention (2) can be placed just behind them. With a five-horse field, the pace will likely be moderate and controlled.

Key Contenders: Margie's Intention (2) has been installed as the top pick by several handicappers, reflecting her class and consistency from a powerhouse barn. Blue Fire (1) is very close to Margie's Intention (2) in public rankings with the rail to dictate terms. Rising Inflation (4) has been scratched from a prior stakes but returns here with proven stakes class.

Secondary Choices: Canal Street (5) could offer some value if overlooked in the betting. Clearly A Test (3) is ranked as the outsider and will be last early, needing help from the pace scenario.

Race 9 – Allowance, 5.5 Furlongs Turf (N1X/N2L)

Pace: Murdock (5), John The Beer Man (6), Tussling Charlie (8), Ketchum (9), Spamalot (11), Wagner (12), and The Boss Soss (14) all have early or tactical speed, suggesting a very hot and contested pace in this large 14-horse field.

Key Contenders: Murdock (5) stands out as an early speedster from a high-percentage turf sprint barn. John The Beer Man (6) has scratch history in off-turf spots but returns to the grass where his speed and class make him a prime factor. Restore (4) with a top jockey looks like an ideal stalker from a mid-gate post who can sit behind the speed cluster and launch his run.

Secondary Choices: Unleash The Power (7) and To The Chief (1) both have prior scratch history due to off-turf designations. Ketchum (9) is a lightly-raced three-year-old with upside. Wagner (12), Marcus Gift (2), Orleans Tourist (10), Spamalot (11), Glacial Power (13), and The Boss Soss (14) are all talented enough on their best day.

Longshots: Magic Brew (3) faces traffic challenges from inside while The Boss Soss (14) must overcome ground loss from far outside.

Race 10 – Allowance, 6 Furlongs Dirt (LA-bred NW2L)

Pace: I Got The Hint (2), Remi (4), Who Is Chief (6), Luna C (7), Seizethedaydude (8), Hesper (9), and Classical Knight (10) all have varying degrees of sprint speed. With so many horses wanting position, this could become a demanding 6-furlong race.

Key Contenders: I Got The Hint (2) represents a highly respected barn with a top rider, and his tactical speed from an inside/mid post is an advantage. Remi (4) is a consistent allowance type from a barn that excels with Louisiana-breds at this level. Classical Knight (10) has the outside post but pairs with a strong rider and can sit outside the main pace in clear air.

Secondary Choices: Who Is Chief (6) has prior main-track-only scratch history, suggesting this is the target spot, with speed to be a key pace factor. Luna C (7) is a lightly-raced three-year-old from a productive barn. Seizethedaydude (8), Hesper (9), and Chariot (1) all have ability but may be compromised by trip or class.

Longshots: Catchin Drama (5) has had trainer scratches recently, indicating some uncertainty. Skenes Crews (3) might be more likely to grab a minor share than to win.

Race 11 – Ova Charged Stakes, 5.5 Furlongs Turf (LA-bred F&M stakes)

Pace: Sassi Strutter (1), Six String (2), Synthetic (5), Rue Lala (6), and Bet Towinit (7) all can show early speed. This shapes up as a very fast turf sprint, but Synthetic (5) has been so dominant that she may be able to control or sit just off any duel and still finish best.

Key Contenders: Synthetic (5) is undefeated and has been described as one of the stories of the meet, dominating her rivals and even beating open allowance company earlier. She is expected to be odds-on and is widely regarded as the most likely winner on the card. Rue Lala (6) is the main alternative, a tough older mare with proven stakes credentials. Six String (2) and Sassi Strutter (1) both bring speed and some turf aptitude.

Secondary Choices: Bet Towinit (7) is another midpriced contender with enough tactical pace to be in the early mix. Custom Design (8) is a hard-knocking mare from a smaller barn who may be overlooked. Mischievous Cindy (3) has been scratched from a prior stakes and is listed as the longest shot.

Longshots: Tommie G (4) projects as a midpack runner who can pick up a minor share if others fail.

Race 12 – Star Guitar Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt (LA-bred older stakes)

Pace: Benoit (1), Cosmic Train (3), He's Late Again (4), Mangum (5), and Sippin On Gin (7) all have tactical to early speed. Given the class and competitiveness of this group, expect an honest pace that rewards proven route stamina.

Key Contenders: Sippin On Gin (7) is the morning-line favorite and last year's Crescent City Derby winner, returning to dirt after a turf experiment. Benoit (1) has been scratched out of a prior stakes but now draws the rail for a trainer who spots aggressively. Cosmic Train (3) is another major player combining strong dirt form with a top jockey.

Secondary Choices: He's Late Again (4) is rated midpack in expert rankings but has a tactical style that could be dangerous. Mangum (5) can be forwardly placed and may try to steal it if allowed comfortable fractions. Kenmore West (6) has been a main-track-only entrant in prior spots, indicating this is a desired condition.

Longshots: Highland Creek (8) is a veteran with the talent to pick up a piece. Tdzshininluckystar (2) and Letmikefigureitout (9) look more like longshot exotics candidates.

Race 13 – Claiming, 1 1/8 Miles Turf

Pace: Super Wise (1), Bizzee Channel (2), Gorilla Trek (3), Western Run (4), Masqueparade (5), and Sendero (10) all can show some early or tactical speed. On firm turf at 9 furlongs, the pace is likely to be honest but not scorching.

Key Contenders: Western Run (4) gets a top-tier turf rider from a barn that has enjoyed success in these longer turf claimers, with tactical speed to secure a prime stalking position. Bizzee Channel (2) is a veteran turf specialist who fits this level, with a prior off-turf scratch indicating connections have been waiting for firm grass. Masqueparade (5) is a notable class dropper with strong back class.

Secondary Choices: Super Wise (1) can save ground and perhaps set or press the pace from the rail. Gorilla Trek (3) has weight assigned that reflects his prior performances. Ben Dreaming (6) and Moment Of Stardom (9) are more likely late-running types who need a legitimate pace.

Longshots: William Gustavo (8) and Sendero (10) both have needed firm turf and have been off-turf or also-eligible in prior entries. Motor City Menace (7) is a lightweight with a bug rider who could show early speed.

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