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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Welcome to Aqueduct Racetrack for a Wednesday card featuring nine races, highlighted by the 8th race, an Allowance Optional Claiming event for fillies and mares. The forecast for Queens, New York, calls for cold winter temperatures in the high 20s to low 40s with partly cloudy skies. The main track is listed as Fast, and freezing overnight temperatures suggest a tight surface.

Historically, the winter track at Aqueduct favors inside speed, particularly in one turn mile races where the chute allows inside horses to secure position. While recent trends show a fairer surface, horses with tactical speed in posts 1 through 4 often hold an advantage in routes. In sprints, the rail horse typically has the shortest path to victory if they break well.

1st Race – Starter Optional Claiming

Tuskegee Airmen projects to be the primary speed in this field and fits the conditions perfectly as he drops slightly in class. Forgiving Spirit has tactical speed and should sit just off the leader, ready to pounce. Twenty Four Mamba will likely be closing from mid pack, dependent on a pace collapse which seems unlikely given the moderate projection.

Key Contenders: Tuskegee Airmen (2), Forgiving Spirit (1)

Secondary Choices: Twenty Four Mamba (4), Breslau (3)

Longshots: Big Hat Willie (5)

2nd Race – Maiden Claiming

This route features a field lacking confirmed early speed, which may leave Kat Stormy on the lead by default. She takes a massive class drop from special weight company and is the clear standout on figures. Rogue Justice draws the rail and has shown tactical speed, making her a logical threat in a race expected to have a slow pace.

Key Contenders: Kat Stormy (4), Rogue Justice (1)

Secondary Choices: Yolo (3), A. P. Slingshot (7)

Longshots: Tizallmine (2)

3rd Race – Allowance Optional Claiming

Igniter is a confirmed front runner who will likely send hard, while Hedge Ratio has tactical speed and should sit a perfect trip just off the pace. Hedge Ratio is the class of the field, facing tougher company recently, and is well positioned to take over in the lane. Blue Forty Two adds speed to the mix but may be outclassed early.

Key Contenders: Hedge Ratio (1), Igniter (4)

Secondary Choices: Chummers (6), Raging Sea Captain (7)

Longshots: Hong Kong Phooey (5)

4th Race – Allowance Optional Claiming

Tall Paul and Willintoriskitall both possess early speed, ensuring a contested pace that sets up perfectly for a closer. Shadow Dragon, who has faced graded stakes company, finds a much softer spot here and should benefit from the fast fractions. Tall Paul is the speed of the speed but faces distance questions with the expected pressure.

Key Contenders: Shadow Dragon (4), Tall Paul (2)

Secondary Choices: Three B’s (6), Cut the Cord (5)

Longshots: Hagrid’s Flame (1)

5th Race – Maiden Claiming

This sprint for maidens likely features a chaotic pace with Mach Schnell and Pilot Knob showing early speed. Anyway draws the rail and will be forced to send, making him a major player. Mach Schnell has shown speed in the morning and is a threat to wire the field.

Key Contenders: Anyway (1), Mach Schnell (3)

Secondary Choices: Pilot Knob (6), Broken Record (4)

Longshots: Hoity Moroni (2)

6th Race – Claiming

Market Maven and Aggregation are both forwardly placed runners who will likely hook up early. Market Maven controls the rail and drops in class, giving him the advantage if he can secure the lead. Shipsational is a class dropper who could wake up in this spot, while Jackson Heights needs the leaders to duel into submission.

Key Contenders: Market Maven (1), Aggregation (3)

Secondary Choices: Shipsational (10), Jackson Heights (6)

Longshots: Suerte (4)

7th Race – Maiden Special Weight

Complex Charlie has the benefit of experience and the rail in this sprint. Felonious is a dangerous first time starter for a powerhouse barn with sharp works. The rail advantage often plays a significant role in these sprints, favoring Complex Charlie if he breaks clean.

Key Contenders: Complex Charlie (1), Felonious (3)

Secondary Choices: Pretty Boy Miah (4), Into the Light (5)

Longshots: Irish Craic (2)

8th Race – Allowance Optional Claiming

Khali Magic has speed but draws the outside, forcing her to be used hard to clear. Mursal is in peak form and loves this track; the pace setup favors her stalking style perfectly. Danzit will save ground from the rail and is consistent.

Key Contenders: Mursal (2), Khali Magic (8)

Secondary Choices: Danzit (1), Sailaway (5)

Longshots: Walk With Me (6)

9th Race – Maiden Claiming

The finale is a scramble with Reign It In showing speed from the rail and The Fridge dropping into a claimer for the first time—a strong angle. Introubleagain adds blinkers and drops in class, suggesting improvement. The pace will likely be fast.

Key Contenders: The Fridge (7), Introubleagain (6)

Secondary Choices: Reign It In (1), Kid Rich (8)

Longshots: Winston D (14)