Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet for Aqueduct – Racing News and Analysis for February 20, 2026


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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Aqueduct runs an eight-race all-dirt card today, Friday, February 20, 2026, with first post at 1:10 PM EST. The program features a Maiden Special Weight opener for fillies and mares at one mile, a Maiden Claiming mile, two 1 1/8 mile claiming routes, a six-furlong Maiden Optional Claiming for three-year-olds, a one-mile claiming race for older fillies and mares, and two New York-bred starter allowance events at six furlongs and one mile to close the card.

Purses range from 28000 dollars in the 10000 dollar claimer (Race 4) up to 80000 dollars in the opening Maiden Special Weight. Several horses appear on a scratch watch list for recent illness, notably Antietam in Race 2, Apalta and Fever Night in Race 3, Commandperformance in Race 4, Final Joke in Race 5, and My First Love in Race 6, which could significantly reduce field sizes and alter race dynamics in those events.​

Linda Rice, who set a NYRA single-season record with 165 wins in 2025, comes into the day leading the Aqueduct winter meet with 32 wins from 126 starters, a 25.4 percent win rate. She has runners in most races and exerts a strong influence on the card.

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecasts call for cold winter conditions at Aqueduct, with temperatures in the mid 30s Fahrenheit and a wintry mix likely during racing hours. Cloudy skies, intermittent rain or wet snow, and east winds around 15 to 20 miles per hour are expected, and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect with potential snow accumulation by evening.

The main track has been playing fast recently, but moisture from rain or snow could shift it to good or muddy as the card progresses. The combination of cold temperatures and precipitation can produce heavier kickback, which tends to disadvantage deep closers who must run through traffic, while still favoring horses able to secure forward, ground-saving trips.​

Track Bias and Post Position Notes

Recent Aqueduct cards have shown a pronounced inside and speed bias on the main track. Track trend reports for early to mid February describe the rail as a strong or even extreme advantage on multiple days, with inside paths and ground-saving trips being a consistent key to success. Speed and pace-pressing types breaking from inside posts have wired or controlled many races, especially in sprints and one-turn miles.​

In one-mile races, which are one-turn events at Aqueduct, inside draws are particularly valuable because horses outside must travel extra ground to obtain position; this comes into play in Races 1, 2, and 6. At 1 1/8 miles around two turns (Races 3 and 4), post position is somewhat more neutral, but the rail path has still provided an edge when the bias is present.​

If the track becomes wet or sealed later in the day, the strength of the inside bias could change. Observing early races for any shift in winning profiles and paths is essential for real-time adjustments.

Race 1 Overview

Maiden Special Weight, one mile for fillies and mares, five-horse field.

Key contenders:
Inefficiency (post 3) debuts for Chad Brown, whose first-time starters on this circuit win at a high rate; her placement as a short-priced option and top ranking from multiple handicappers signals strong expectations. Raghba (post 5) for Todd Pletcher and Manuel Franco is a consistent late-running type with multiple runner-up finishes at the condition and distance, but her reliance on a closing style is slightly at odds with the current bias.

Secondary choices:
Dimensionality (post 2) has considerable experience and often runs on or near the pace; with Flavien Prat aboard and an inside draw, she fits the profile of a bias-aided tactical runner. Trango Tower (post 1) for Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano draws the rail, which is a positive in this environment, and her late-running style could be mitigated by the ability to save ground throughout.

Longshot:
Pay the Bills (post 4) is a five-year-old mare with no in-the-money finishes from multiple recent Aqueduct starts and appears significantly overmatched on form and connections.​

Race 2 Overview

Maiden Claiming 40000 dollars, one mile, older maidens.

Key contenders:
Antietam (post 4) is the morning-line favorite trained by Linda Rice with Jose Lezcano named, but he appears on a vet illness scratch list, creating uncertainty about participation. Ice Shot (post 5) carries a short price and comes from a solid barn; ratings and expert lists consistently place him among the key players. Restless Renegade (post 3) debuts for Linda Rice with Kendrick Carmouche and has strong connections and a favorable inside draw.

Secondary choices:
Shellac (post 2) has early experience and the important inside post; several handicappers list him on top or near the top for this race, suggesting he is a primary alternative if the favorite comes out.​

Longshots:
Mr R T (post 1) benefits from the rail and a weight allowance but has limited proven ability; Klimt Master (post 6) shows little on paper and remains a true outsider.​

Race 3 Overview

Claiming 20000 dollars, non-winners of two, 1 1/8 miles.

Key contenders:
Apalta (post 2) is a Linda Rice and Flavien Prat runner installed as a strong favorite and consensus top choice, but is also on the vet illness scratch watch, which could remove the apparent standout from the equation. Come to Papa (post 5) for Rob Atras and Kendrick Carmouche rates as a main contender if the Rice duo does not go, with a tactical running style suited to a small-field route.

Secondary choices:
Maldini (post 6) has drawn favorable attention from at least one NYRA handicapper as a potential top pick and offers a late-running profile that could prove effective if the pace is not overly soft. Whitby (post 1), trained by Mark Hennig and ridden by Jaime Rodriguez, enjoys the inside draw and has connections that have been competitive at the meet, making him a logical in-the-money type.

Longshot:
Carlin Contention (post 4) is a double-digit morning-line runner with limited form indications and projects as a minor exotic possibility at best.​

Race 4 Overview

Claiming 10000 dollars, 1 1/8 miles.

Key contenders:
Flat On (post 3) for Linda Rice with Manuel Franco is a short-priced runner favored by multiple analyst lists, combining high-percentage trainer and leading rider with an inside-ish draw in a route. Laughing Boy (post 5) for Michael Miceli and Jose Lezcano is an experienced eight-year-old with strong records at the distance and class level; his stalking style and class edge support his favoritism.

Secondary choices:
Six Kings (post 6) is a forwardly-placed type with a positive win and in-the-money record who has received a top selection from at least one respected handicapper, marking him as a serious player despite the outside post. Eric From Miami (post 2) has some back class but a running style more dependent on closing, which may be less suited to the prevailing profile unless conditions change.

Longshot:
Nobodyridesforfree (post 1) draws the rail, which is a plus, but overall ability and form suggest he is more likely to compete for minor slices than for the win.​

Race 5 Overview

Maiden Optional Claiming 75000 dollars, six furlongs, three-year-olds.

Key contenders:
Frankie Coffeecake (post 5) is a well-regarded debut runner with favorable rankings from several algorithmic and human handicappers and occupies a logical favorite position from a mid-gate draw. Mitolegayne (post 1) for Chris Englehart and Manuel Franco gains the rail in a sprint, a notable advantage under this bias and with the meet’s leading rider aboard.

Secondary choices:
Two Ducks (post 2) sits just outside the rail and may enjoy a stalking trip behind the main speeds while saving ground; his 4 to 1 morning line reflects solid respect. Waitin’onasunnyday (post 4) with Ricardo Santana Jr. is another plausible runner in the second tier, especially if the leaders engage early.

Longshots:
Bold Love (post 7) from the Summers barn and Trapping Hands (post 6) from a small but high-percentage outfit offer price appeal if the race shape turns chaotic, though both start from less favorable outside posts. Final Joke (post 3) carries a scratch risk due to recent illness and cannot be confidently assessed until entry status is confirmed.

Race 6 Overview

Claiming 16000 dollars, one mile, fillies and mares.

Key contenders:
Coquito (post 3) for Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano is a short-priced favorite and frequent top pick on external lists; her likely forward placement and mid-inside draw are well suited to the one-turn mile profile. Curlin’s Magic (post 4), another Rice runner with Flavien Prat aboard, forms the second half of a powerful entry-like pairing and is preferred by at least one major analyst.

Secondary choices:
Patty Cakes (post 2) for Gustavo Rodriguez and Kendrick Carmouche benefits from an inside draw and competent connections and tends to be used as a logical underneath or upset candidate.

Longshots:
Floge (post 6) for a small but successful barn and Brooklyn Dantz (post 7) at a long price have minor chances if the favorites fail to fire. Troubled Luck (post 5) appears to be in deeper water and is difficult to endorse on current form. My First Love (post 1) is on the vet illness list, making her participation and form questionable.

Race 7 Overview

Starter Allowance, six furlongs, New York-bred fillies and mares.

Key contenders:
Undergrad (post 4) for Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano is the morning-line favorite and consensus top choice in many rankings; her tactical speed and mid-gate draw give her a strong chance if she can secure the right lane early. Cloudy Chance (post 2) for Chris Englehart and Manuel Franco sits inside and may possess enough speed to take advantage of the rail bias, earning top billing from at least one NYRA handicapper.

Secondary choices:
Graceful Rose (post 1) draws the pure rail for trainer Michael Gorham with Jaime Rodriguez and could ride the inside pathway to a share despite potentially lacking the fastest early foot. I’m Kidding (post 7) for Rudy Rodriguez and Ruben Silvera is favored by some off-track handicappers as a top choice but must overcome a wide draw in a bias-prone sprint.

Longshots:
Twirling Lulu (post 5) with Bruce Levine and Kendrick Carmouche is a mid-priced, mid-gate option who could factor with a stalking trip. Sabby Sunset (post 3) and Fifi La Fume (post 6) rank lower on most depth charts and would need substantial improvement or race-shape help to threaten for the win.​

Race 8 Overview

Starter Allowance, one mile, New York-bred colts and geldings.

Key contenders:
Forgone (post 6) for Chad Summers is a narrow morning-line favorite and high algorithmic rating horse, though the outside draw at a one-turn mile is a tactical negative relative to inside rivals. Toga Dan (post 4) for Domenick Schettino with Manuel Franco receives top-pick status from at least one NYRA analyst and enjoys a more favorable mid-gate draw with a top jockey aboard.

Secondary choices:
Romeo Void (post 7) for hot-trending trainer Amelia Green and Reylu Gutierrez draws widest but benefits from a barn winning at a high percentage this meet, which keeps him prominent in many rankings despite the post. E Z Bourbon (post 2) for Mark Hennig and Jose Lezcano is an inside-drawn contender that one NYRA handicapper tabs as top pick at a generous 8 to 1 morning line. Mo Kreesa (post 5), also from the Hennig barn and ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr., appears as a top choice for several external handicapping sources, suggesting stable confidence in both entries.

Longshots:
Oath of Omerta (post 1) for Jena Antonucci and Eric Cancel draws the rail, giving him a bias-related edge despite relatively longer odds; some ranking models place him among the top three in the field. Senegal (post 3) for Thomas Morley and Jaime Rodriguez holds a reasonable 4 to 1 morning line and a favorable inside post, making him a solid mid-range contender even if not strictly a longshot.

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