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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Aqueduct Racetrack hosts a 10-race dirt card highlighted by three major stakes and one listed stakes event for Saturday, February 28, 2026. The feature is the Grade 3, $300,000 Gotham Stakes at one mile, a key Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier awarding 50 points to the winner and points down to fifth place. The supporting stakes are the $200,000 Busher Stakes for three-year-old fillies (Kentucky Oaks prep) at one mile, the Grade 3, $175,000 Tom Fool Stakes at six furlongs for older sprinters, and the $150,000 Stymie Stakes at one mile for older horses. All 10 races are scheduled on the main dirt track.

Several pre-race scratches impact the shape of the card. Nowucme Nowudont has been withdrawn from Race 1. In Race 3, Howling Wind and Rare Society are out with illness, significantly altering that allowance field. J J’s Ranger is scratched from Race 5. Komorebino Omoide (JPN) is scratched from the Stymie in Race 8, and Brigadier General is out of Race 9 with an injury. In the Gotham, Balboa and Dirty Rich are confirmed scratches, and Creole Chrome is cross-entered elsewhere and may not run, tightening the field but not diminishing its overall quality.

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for Queens, New York, calls for mostly cloudy conditions with some early morning fog, improving to partly cloudy by afternoon, with highs in the mid-40s and light south winds. No precipitation is expected, a change from recent winter weather that produced multiple wet-track days. Given overnight lows near freezing and a recently moist surface, the track may start on the slightly softer side but should continue to dry and tighten as the day progresses. Observers should still check the official carded track condition near first post, but expectations favor a fair to slightly moisture-retentive dirt surface that improves through the card.

Track Bias and Post Position Notes

Throughout the 2025–2026 winter meet, Aqueduct’s main track has shown a persistent inside/rail bias. At six furlongs, over half of winners have employed a wire-to-wire running style, and posts 1 through 4 have significantly outperformed wider draws. At seven furlongs, more than one-third of winners have gone gate to wire, again with early speed and inside paths strongly favored. Prior to this weekend’s forecast improvement, several race days exhibited an extreme gold rail, where horses saving ground along the inside were heavily advantaged.

With the track drying out after a Winter Storm, there is a possibility that the bias profile moderates, but until the surface clearly proves otherwise, handicappers should assume that forwardly placed runners who can secure inside position remain advantaged. Mid-pack stalkers drawn in the two- to five-post range are particularly well-suited. Deep closers dependent on wide, late runs remain at a tactical disadvantage unless the pace collapses.

Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (NY-bred 3yo)

This is a maiden sprint for New York-bred three-year-old colts and geldings, reduced by the scratch of Nowucme Nowudont.

Key contenders include Bounty Banker (post 5), who owns the best established figures in the field and has run well despite unfavorable bias conditions, giving him a strong form edge. First-time starter Sfumato (post 6) debuts for a high-percentage barn with solid works and an attractive pedigree for this level. Bargain Purchase (post 7) is another notable debut runner from a top outfit that excels with first timers. Illmatic (post 2) is a secondary player benefitting from an inside draw in a meet favoring inside speed, while Central Spirit (post 1) is an inside-rail longshot who could outrun his odds if he shows early foot.

Race 2 – Busher Stakes, 1 Mile (3yo Fillies)

The Busher is a Kentucky Oaks points race for three-year-old fillies at the one-turn mile.

Paradise (post 3) stands out as a key contender, having already proven herself at the one-turn mile and defeating a subsequent winner while showing both speed and versatility. Interstatelovesong (post 5) exits a strong runner-up finish in the Ruthless Stakes and projects to be on or near the pace as she stretches out from a sprint; her main question is stamina at the mile. Nycon (post 1) is a major inside threat, returning to her preferred distance with a rail draw that fits the prevailing bias and a stalking style that should allow her to sit just behind the pace. Current Yield (post 2) is an improving filly from a top barn, stepping up from an impressive debut win and stretching out in distance. Blazing Brat (post 4) appears to be a cut below the main quartet and profiles as a longshot whose best chance is to pick up pieces if others underperform.

Race 3 – Allowance, 6 Furlongs (NY-bred F&M)

Scratches of Rare Society and Howling Wind remove two of the original leading players, creating an open feel.

Redwineandwhiskey (post 6) becomes a primary contender; her recent efforts came against pronounced track biases and can be forgiven, and she has back races that fit this level. Queens Over Threes (post 1) gains importance with the rail draw and projects to be forwardly placed, a plus under the meet’s bias pattern. I’m Kidding (post 3) is a logical secondary contender, with solid form and a favorable inside draw. Sunshine Lily (post 4) is another pace-adjacent type with some upside but less proven class. Carol T (post 8) offers longshot appeal; while drawn outside, she has occasional races that make her competitive and carries a light impost that can help her finish into the exotics.

Race 4 – Tom Fool Stakes (G3), 6 Furlongs

The Tom Fool features a compact but talented group of older sprinters.

One Nine Hundred (post 2) is the clear Standout on paper, coming off a Powerful local win at this distance with a triple-digit speed figure and demonstrating front-running brilliance. The chief caveat is his need to reproduce that effort Without Lasix, which did coincide with his only poor race. Full Moon Madness (post 5), last year’s Tom Fool winner, is a key rival; he is a proven stakes sprinter at Aqueduct with a trainer enjoying a high-percentage meet, and he projects to stalk from the outside. Acoustic Ave (post 4) is highly consistent and thrives for a top local stable; cutting back from seven furlongs to six may sharpen his finishing kick. Breslau (post 1) is a versatile speed horse with an excellent six-furlong record who gains the rail and can either press or stalk, making him a dangerous longshot to outrun his odds. Bold Journey (post 3) is more of a secondary contender, having failed to fire against similar late last year and in need of a rebound.

Race 5 – Claiming $10,000, 1 Mile

This lower-level route features a large field with modest class profiles.

Hours In A Day (post 4) is a key contender, dropping in class for the meet’s dominant trainer and making his third start off a layoff, a strong form cycle angle. Skylander (post 9) is his primary rival, coming off a good trip over a favorable rail and now trying to build on that form for a new barn with solid meet stats. Knox (post 2) is a secondary player who benefits from an inside draw and a trainer having a good meet at this level. Mister Holden (post 5) is another logical secondary option with tactical speed and a trainer-rider combination that has been productive. Deeper longshots such as Pot Of Gold (post 6) and Midnight Trouble (post 7) are more speculative and would need substantial improvement to win but can be used defensively in deeper exotics.

Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs (NY-bred 3yo Fillies)

A big, complex maiden filly sprint with numerous unknowns.

Atira (post 5) is an especially interesting first-time starter, bred for speed and trained by a barn that has success with debut runners, making her a key contender despite the lack of race experience. Daylight Dreamer (post 4) is another well-touted firster with strong works and a solid purchase price, debuting for a capable barn with a top local rider. Kaz Farm Girl (post 10) is the most appealing of the experienced fillies; she has run competitively behind a subsequent stakes winner and was compromised by both distance and bias in her most recent start. Punchoutandgohome (post 2) is a secondary contender with some early speed and a favorable inside draw, while Sugartown Sweetie (post 12) has displayed pace and can factor early despite a wide post. Find Your Path (post 13) and Barbour County (post 6) are longer-priced firsters from capable connections who could jump forward and offer value if they handle the conditions and trip.

Race 7 – Allowance, 6.5 Furlongs (NY-bred)

With Calling Card removed, the pace complexion shifts.

Sir Kartrite (post 9) rates as a Major Contender; he has run well despite poor bias setups and now returns for a trainer having an excellent meet, with a rider who has been consistently productive locally. Mozambique (post 8) is another key runner, offering a solid stalking style, good overall consistency, and a live trainer-rider combination. Fireballin (post 2) becomes the likely pace leader and primary speed; his talent is evident, but his tendency to fade raises reliability concerns. Liberty Rising (post 1) is a secondary inside-speed option whose form has been somewhat inconsistent. Sanzio (post 4) is the Standout longshot, turning back from routes after showing he can compete at this class level and exiting a trip badly compromised by a strong bias; his prior figure suggests he fits here at a price.

Race 8 – Stymie Stakes, 1 Mile

The scratch of Komorebino Omoide leaves a small but competitive field.

Phileas Fogg (post 3) is a central contender, with class lines that tower over most rivals and a projected front-running or pace-controlling trip enhanced by blinkers coming off. His prior attempts with different tactics can be forgiven, and a freshening should help him return to his best form. Full Screen (post 2) is in excellent recent form, coming off consecutive wins at nine furlongs around two turns; his question is the cutback to a one-turn mile, but his current confidence and a top trainer support his candidacy. Yo Daddy (post 4) is the trip horse and value-oriented contender, possessing tactical speed and proven one-turn mile form at Aqueduct, and hailing from the meet’s leading barn. Ridgewood Runner (post 1) is a longshot with early speed and an advantageous rail draw, whose chances improve significantly if the inside bias is still in effect. Counterspy (post 5) rounds out the field as a deeper longshot with less obvious upside but a clean outside draw.

Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile

This is one of the deepest and most competitive races on the card, with many plausible outcomes.

Donegal Surges (post 4) is a leading contender, dropping into an appropriate spot after a wide, bias-compromised effort and owning back form that would win this race. V Cruizer (post 9) is another key player; he has already wired a similar field at this distance and figures to control or strongly influence the pace in a race lacking early speed. Dreamlike (post 3) is a dangerous closer, having outfinished Donegal Surges despite a wide trip last time, though he may be compromised if the pace is soft. Castle Chaos (post 5) is a hard-knocking veteran with enough class to be considered a secondary contender at mid-range odds. Top Gun Rocket (post 1) is a noteworthy longshot; he draws the rail, was against the bias in his last two starts, and is capable of significantly better with a cleaner inside trip. Bramito (post 8) and others can be included underneath based on their occasional competitive efforts.

Race 10 – Gotham Stakes (G3), 1 Mile

The feature Gotham Stakes offers a high-quality though reduced field, with a mix of proven class and promising lightly raced runners.

Iron Honor (post 6) is the clear talent on figures, off a debut win that produced a Standout speed number over this track at a sprint distance, and he now stretches to the mile under a leading trainer and top local rider. Concerns revolve around his relative inexperience, the possibility that his debut figure was buoyed by a particularly fast track, and some statistical data that suggests second-time starters facing winners from this barn can be overbet. Right To Party (post 5) is a key alternative, boasting the strongest late-pace profile, having run well against both a speed bias and troubled trips, and showing improvement when stretched to a mile in his second start. Hammond (post 2) is another major player, with steadily rising figures, a strong effort in stakes company at shorter distances, and a pedigree that offers at least a chance to handle the mile, though stamina remains a mild question. Crown The Buckeye (post 3) returns to a one-turn configuration where he has run some of his best races and brings early speed and a significant rider vote of confidence. Fourth And One (post 4) is a price horse who endured a disastrous trip on a day with a severe inside bias and can move forward under better circumstances. Exhibition Only (post 7) has lesser overall credentials but enters in form and can factor in the early mix or for minor awards.