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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Welcome to a cold but clear Thursday night at Charles Town. The card tonight features nine races, mixing maiden claimers with allowance contests. The rail profile at Charles Town remains a critical factor, and with temperatures hovering near freezing, the track surface often tightens up, favoring speed even more than usual.
Weather and Track Conditions
Cloud cover will persist throughout the day, clearing into the evening. The temperature will reach a high of 35°F and a low of 25°F. Winds are expected from the Northwest at 15-16 mph. The track condition is fast. With low humidity and cold temperatures, expect a hard, fast surface. The frozen strip effect often amplifies the bias towards early speed and inside posts.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
For the 4 1/2 Furlong races, this is a pure speed distance. The run to the turn is short. Horses breaking from the inside posts with early foot have a distinct advantage. Outside closers struggle significantly unless the pace completely collapses. For the 6 1/2 and 7 Furlong races, the two-turn configuration allows for a bit more tactical maneuvering, but the tight turns of Charles Town still punish horses hung wide. The winning profile is typically a horse that can secure the rail or the two-path and stalk the pace. Deep closers are at a disadvantage unless the track is playing unusually deep.
Race 1
Pace Analysis
This 4 1/2 furlong dash for maidens should see a contested pace. Camp Crystal Lake 4 has shown flashes of early foot and will likely send hard from the middle. Nostrana 2 may try to go with him, but Mr Mahomes 1 has the tactical speed to sit just off the leaders and pounce.
Key Contenders
Handicappers view Mr Mahomes 1 as the horse to beat. He narrowly missed in his last effort and draws the rail, which is a massive advantage at this distance. His speed figures are superior to the rest of the field, and he should save ground every step of the way.
Secondary Choices
Camp Crystal Lake 4 is the logical alternative. He showed promise on debut and is expected to improve in his second start. Mark of Greatness 3 has been consistent and could pick up the pieces if the top two duel.
Longshots
Ekati Indian 6 is a longshot worth a look. While his form is spotty, he adds blinkers and drops in weight, which could wake him up.
Race 2
Pace Analysis
At 6 1/2 furlongs, the pace in this claiming event looks moderate. Robbielikeshim 1 has tactical speed and the rail, suggesting he will be involved early. Racing Hot Line 2 and Powered by Love 6 will likely apply pressure from the outside.
Key Contenders
Fortunate Son 3 is the consensus top pick. Despite recent disappointments, he takes a significant class drop today, which should be the catalyst for a rebound. His back class is superior to this field.
Secondary Choices
Highly Potent 4 finished a close second in his last outing and is in good form. Robbielikeshim 1 is always dangerous at Charles Town, especially from the rail.
Longshots
Racing Hot Line 2 has won at this level before and could surprise if he reverts to his best form.
Race 3
Pace Analysis
Shook Me All Night 6 possesses the best recent speed figures and likely controls the pace or sits just off it. Smooth Sailor 1 has the rail and will be forced to use it to hold position.
Key Contenders
Shook Me All Night 6 is the clear favorite in analysis. He finished a close second last time and looks poised to break his maiden. The outside post in this small field should not be a hindrance.
Secondary Choices
Smooth Sailor 1 finished just behind the top choice in their last meeting. The rail draw gives him a chance to turn the tables. Buzz Bunny 3 is a consistent placer who figures to be in the mix.
Longshots
Peace for Simon 5 has shown little so far but faces a weak group. A small improvement puts him in the picture.
Race 4
Pace Analysis
Magical Surprise 1 has strong form over this course and distance. From the rail, expect aggressive riding to secure position. Bold Desert 2 will be right there with him.
Key Contenders
Magical Surprise 1 is the one to beat. He has strong form over this track and distance and draws the favorable rail post. His recent placed efforts suggest he is sitting on a win.
Secondary Choices
Bold Desert 2 was the runner-up in his last start and is the main danger. Castle of Cork 3 is stepping up in class after a win, which is a positive sign of form.
Longshots
Grandpa Joe 5 is a veteran who could sneak into the trifecta if the pace heats up too much up front.
Race 5
Pace Analysis
This 4 1/2 furlong sprint will be fast. Swervin Mervyn 6 showed good speed last time and will be sending. Mister Woodford 3 also has early gas.
Key Contenders
Swervin Mervyn 6 looks well-placed to break his maiden today. His second-place finish last time out was a strong effort, and a repeat of that performance likely wins this.
Secondary Choices
Mister Woodford 3 poses the main threat. He has shown speed and should be involved from the bell. Warrior’s Notion 8 has enough talent to hit the board.
Longshots
Coco Sun 1 has the rail. In these low-level maiden claimers, a rail horse who just sends can sometimes steal it at a huge price.
Race 6
Pace Analysis
Wac Is Fast 1 lives up to his name and draws the rail. He should be on the lead. Bourbon and Beauty 5 won impressively last time and will likely stalk.
Key Contenders
Wac Is Fast 1 has strong claims after two consecutive close seconds. The rail draw at 7 furlongs is excellent for his running style. He is the most likely winner.
Secondary Choices
Bourbon and Beauty 5 is coming off a win and is in peak form. Any Fools Gold 6 drops in class, which is a potent angle at Charles Town.
Longshots
Makaan 7 is the wild card. If the pace collapses, he could be the one closing late.
Race 7
Pace Analysis
This is a maiden special weight for fillies. Little Value Added 2 has shown speed and ability. Newcomers like Cassy Cassy 3 are unknowns but could flash speed.
Key Contenders
Little Value Added 2 narrowly missed last time and has the experience edge. She looks like the one to beat in a field that lacks depth.
Secondary Choices
R Candy 1 showed improvement when finishing second recently and draws the rail. Cassy Cassy 3 is a first-time starter to watch for action.
Longshots
Crab Rangoon 4 takes a weight break and could improve at a price.
Race 8
Pace Analysis
Amalfi Sunset 4 comes in off a win over this track and distance. She has tactical speed. Malibu Years 5 represents a dangerous connection and will be well-bet.
Key Contenders
Amalfi Sunset 4 looks well-placed to repeat her success. She handles the track well and is in form.
Secondary Choices
Ready to Rocknroll 7 is a consistent runner who can chase the top choice home. Malibu Years 5 must be respected due to the connections.
Longshots
Unwoke 3 has some back class and could wake up in this spot.
Race 9
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a maiden special weight. Vida 9 has speed but draws wide. Bahama Village 1 has the rail and speed. This will be a scramble to the first turn.
Key Contenders
Vida 9 narrowly missed last time. Despite the wide post, he has the talent to overcome it against this group.
Secondary Choices
Bahama Village 1 showed promise on debut and now gets the rail. This is a major advantage. Flatter My Dad 4 is another consistent type to consider.
Longshots
Speedy Sammy 7 could improve with experience.
