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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Welcome to Charles Town for an exciting evening of racing under the lights featuring a mix of claiming, maiden, and allowance events. The abbreviated stretch means horses must be in high gear coming off the final turn, placing a heavy premium on course experience and early tactical speed. Early scratches have already altered the pace dynamics in several races, requiring careful adjustments to early pace projections.
Weather and Track Conditions
Currently in Charles Town, it is sunny with a temperature of 37°F and southwest winds at 8 mph, while the daily forecast predicts cloudy conditions, a high of 56°F, and a 10% chance of rain.
The dirt surface heavily favors early speed and inside posts in the abbreviated sprints. Route races require navigating three tight turns, making it essential to save ground on the rail and severely penalizing horses caught wide.
Race 1
Post Time
07:00PM
Pace Analysis
With multiple scratches reducing the field, Head Lad and Centavo are left in a strict match race scenario where Head Lad should dictate the early terms.
Consensus Picks
Handicappers are aligned on Head Lad as the overwhelming choice to control the race from start to finish, with Centavo universally viewed as the only remaining alternative.
Key Contenders
Head Lad stands out as the primary threat, possessing the tactical advantage and class relief to control the tempo.
Secondary Choices
Centavo is the only other runner in the field and will need to press the pace early, hoping the leader tires in the stretch.
Longshots
None applicable in this two horse field.
Race 2
Post Time
07:32PM
Pace Analysis
Early speed will be heavily contested from the break with S S Runs for Fun and Fifth of June looking quick enough to set a blistering opening quarter mile.
Consensus Picks
The consensus centers on Fifth of June as the top play, utilizing Sperry Chalet and Fleetness as the primary backups in a contested sprint.
Key Contenders
Fifth of June should be perfectly positioned just off the dueling speed, while Sperry Chalet has the vital tactical speed to clear inside traffic from her outside draw.
Secondary Choices
Fleetness breaks from the rail and must be sent hard to avoid getting swallowed up by the pack, making her dangerous if she clears.
Longshots
Cruzin Van Nuys could pick up the pieces in the stretch if the early leaders duel themselves into submission.
Race 3
Post Time
08:02PM
Pace Analysis
Take Your Time will look to wire the field from the rail, while Grandy applies pressure from the jump to ensure an honest pace.
Consensus Picks
Handicappers firmly favor Take Your Time due to his favorable rail draw, with Grandy and Hardly Ever Better identified as the logical alternatives.
Key Contenders
Take Your Time benefits immensely from the inside draw and early speed bias, while Grandy is a consistent performer who will keep the favorite honest.
Secondary Choices
Hardly Ever Better has back class and could awaken dropping into this spot, while Pops Harper offers tactical versatility to sit mid pack.
Longshots
Bid On Blue has been rounding into better form recently and could hit the board at a respectable price.
Race 4
Post Time
08:32PM
Pace Analysis
Stretching out to six and a half furlongs will result in a more moderate pace, allowing Hidden Favor and Dudes Blue Collar to dictate the opening fractions without severe pressure.
Consensus Picks
Expert analysis heavily leans toward a combination of Dudes Blue Collar and Hidden Favor as the dominant forces in this field.
Key Contenders
Dudes Blue Collar has the pedigree to handle the distance and is spotted well by his connections, while Hidden Favor draws beautifully for a perfect stalking trip.
Secondary Choices
Hamdoun is a distinct danger if he can cross over from the outside without expending too much energy, and Mustwinagenda should get a ground saving trip on the inside.
Longshots
Spinemjohnny could sneak into the bottom half of the results if the pace collapses unexpectedly.
Race 5
Post Time
09:02PM
Pace Analysis
Well Spotted and Piquant should duel early from the inside posts, creating a fast and contested pace scenario following the scratch of Shea D World.
Consensus Picks
Mo Joke is widely regarded by handicappers as the premier choice to capitalize on the likely speed duel, with Masterwork viewed as the best late running alternative.
Key Contenders
Mo Joke will benefit tremendously from a stalking trip behind the early duel, and Masterwork is another closer who should appreciate a fast early tempo.
Secondary Choices
Well Spotted is dangerous if he gets loose on the lead without being pressured, while Piquant adds value breaking from the rail but must avoid getting trapped.
Longshots
Mr Sandman might be entirely overlooked but has the late kick to clunk up for a minor award.
Race 6
Post Time
09:32PM
Pace Analysis
This maiden special weight sprint typically favors the sharpest breaker, and Miss Nine One O could flash significant early speed with her notable weight allowance.
Consensus Picks
Stolen Secrets receives strong consensus backing as the top contender, with Changes and Lino’s Legacy recognized as the primary secondary options.
Key Contenders
Stolen Secrets is a remarkably strong contender with top connections, while Changes also figures prominently and should be right in the mix.
Secondary Choices
Lino’s Legacy completely avoids inside congestion from her outside draw, and Peppa’s Pride can factor heavily if she breaks cleanly from the gate.
Longshots
Belle Cause draws the rail but must overcome a historically low percentage trainer angle to find the winner’s circle.
Race 7
Post Time
10:02PM
Pace Analysis
This allowance race looks like a battle between stablemates, with Sunset House expected to easily clear the field early from post two and set comfortable fractions.
Consensus Picks
Sunset House is the unanimous standout pick among handicappers, leaving Johanna as the clear cut second choice in the field.
Key Contenders
Sunset House has blinding speed and top connections, while Johanna carries a very light weight and will stalk her stablemate.
Secondary Choices
Truth and Justice drops in class slightly today and has the proven ability to rally late into the money.
Longshots
Can’t Deny This is the true wild card of the race, hoping for a complete pace meltdown that is highly unlikely to occur.
Race 8
Post Time
10:32PM
Pace Analysis
The early pace should be sluggish in this marathon distance, favoring horses that can get out, clear the field, and save ground on the rail.
Consensus Picks
The consensus strongly favors the uncoupled entry of Solomons Gold and Don Tequilas to dominate the marathon distance.
Key Contenders
Solomons Gold has the supreme tactical speed to sit the perfect trip right behind the pacesetter, forming a powerful entry with Don Tequilas.
Secondary Choices
Badlands Ruler gets a highly coveted inside draw and carries a light weight, while Swift Tap also carries a feathery weight and is handled by a capable barn.
Longshots
Doctor Pardo could find the extended distance to his liking at a very juicy price.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Arnaldo Bocachica is the dominant force in the local jockey colony with an unparalleled ability to secure early position on the tight turns. J D Acosta and Moises Santaella are also highly effective riders, with Acosta known for aggressive gate breaks and Santaella adept at timing late runs.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Jeff Runco and Ronney Brown are the absolute dominant barns, with Runco excelling with first time starters and Brown lethal with claimers. Anthony Farrior is another powerhouse, particularly when shipping horses in or wheeling them back quickly.
