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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today’s racing at Laurel Park presents a competitive nine-race card featuring a blend of claiming and allowance events. Significant scratches, particularly in the early portion of the program, have reduced field sizes and shifted the competitive landscape. With a mix of route and sprint distances on the dirt, the afternoon promises to be a tactical challenge for both horsemen and handicappers.
The weather forecast indicates a high of 38 degrees with light rain expected throughout the day, likely transitioning to snow showers as evening approaches. Given the high humidity and significant chance of precipitation, the dirt surface is expected to be downgraded to muddy or sloppy. This shift in track condition necessitates a focus on runners with proven wet-track pedigree and those capable of handling the kickback associated with an off-track.
Recent trends at Laurel Park have shown a fair racing surface, but the introduction of moisture typically favors early speed and those able to secure inside paths. In route races, avoiding wide trips around the turns will be critical, while sprinters with the ability to clear the field early will likely find a significant advantage if the track is sealed and playing fast.
Race 1
Pace Analysis The scratch of Minister leaves a compact field where Summer Vibes (5) and Tuff Luck (6) are expected to dictate the early fractions. The Count Is On (4) is positioned to sit a tracking trip just behind the leaders.
Key Contenders Mugatu (2) is a primary threat coming off a wide trip where a lack of pace compromised his closing kick. The Count Is On (4) is a highly consistent runner dropping slightly in class into a favorable spot.
Secondary Choices Tuff Luck (6) possesses the early speed to potentially lead from start to finish. Armed N Dangerous (1) should benefit from a ground-saving trip along the rail.
Longshots Dats My Pharaoh (3) could see an improvement in form if the track condition becomes sloppy, as his pedigree suggests an affinity for wet dirt.
Race 2
Pace Analysis Significant scratches have reduced this to a four-horse field. Skip Thru Da Fire (4) and Golden Charm (5) should provide the early pressure in what will likely be a tactical affair.
Key Contenders Baby Sox (1) is the standout in this small field, especially after a wide move in her last outing; an inside trip today makes her very formidable. Golden Charm (5) is the main danger following a game effort in her previous start.
Secondary Choices Skip Thru Da Fire (4) has enough early foot to attempt to steal the race if left unchallenged on the lead.
Longshots Watch Your Tone (3) brings back class to the field but must reverse a trend of uninspiring recent performances.
Race 3
Pace Analysis A contested pace is anticipated with Peaceful Union (1) and Floyness (4) likely to duel early. Barbados Bulldog (5) will apply pressure from the outside, potentially setting the race up for a mid-pack closer.
Key Contenders Kuaga (2) returns following a hard-fought runner-up finish and appears primed for another strong effort. Floyness (4) brings consistent speed figures and a favorable running style for this six-furlong sprint.
Secondary Choices Barbados Bulldog (5) and Song to Remember (7) both have the tactical speed to remain competitive throughout and could capitalize if the front-runners falter.
Race 4
Pace Analysis Zio Lino (4) and Enzo (3) are the likely pace-setters in this five-and-a-half-furlong sprint. The tempo is expected to be brisk but should allow for various running styles to compete.
Key Contenders Nantucket (6) is a high-upside runner coming off a dominant victory and is well-suited by the outside draw. Enzo (3) is the primary threat, bringing strong recent form and reliable gate speed.
Secondary Choices El Junior (2) and Tethered Soul (5) both possess enough tactical speed to stay within striking distance and pick up pieces of the exotics.
Race 5
Pace Analysis Private Peyton (1) and Flirty Bajan (6) are the expected speed of the race. A fast early tempo is likely, which may favor those sitting just off the lead.
Key Contenders Flirty Bajan (6) benefits from a class drop and a favorable outside post. Fayes Heart (2) showed immense grit in her last start and is expected to be a major factor in the closing stages.
Secondary Choices Private Peyton (1) will attempt to use the rail to her advantage. Greyline Station (7) has shown enough late interest in her races to be considered a threat from the outside.
Race 6
Pace Analysis In this one-mile route, Right of Rush (1) and Return Fire (9) are the anticipated leaders. A moderate tempo is expected, which may disadvantage those coming from the back of the pack.
Key Contenders Doomed (3) makes a barn change and should appreciate the cutback to a mile. Maupansant (2) showed life in his last outing despite a poor pace setup and is a major player here.
Secondary Choices Task Force (4) and Shot for the Moon (7) both have the ability to hit the board if they can overcome recent trip troubles.
Race 7
Pace Analysis A swift pace is expected with Bourbon N Lace (5) and Nobody’s Girl (2) likely to engage early. This should set the table for a runner capable of sustaining a move around the far turn.
Key Contenders Cruz Ramirez (3) impressed in her debut victory and looks capable of handling the step up to allowance company. Phlying Phyllis (6) finished a strong second recently and has the perfect stalking style for this matchup.
Secondary Choices Star Blessing (1) and Ashes and Diamonds (8) both possess the talent to contend if the pace becomes overly aggressive.
Race 8
Pace Analysis A significant pace meltdown is possible with Tap Dancin Cowgirl (1) and Itsamonstamash (4) expected to duel through fast early fractions.
Key Contenders Grayson’s Girl (3) is a powerful closer who is perfectly positioned to capitalize on a contested lead. Itsamonstamash (4) is a versatile runner who can win from on or just off the pace.
Secondary Choices Tap Dancin Cowgirl (1) and Kilo Road (2) offer different styles that could play well depending on how the track surface is favoring speed.
Race 9
Pace Analysis In the finale, Fastfeld (4) and I’m a Lil Wicked (1) should lead the field through relatively slow maiden-route fractions.
Key Contenders Quality Swag (3) finds a much easier spot today and should appreciate the class relief. Bella Mente (6) has been consistent at this level and is a primary contender from the outside.
Secondary Choices I’m a Lil Wicked (1) and Kittyup (2) should both be prominent early and have the opportunity to stay for a share of the purse.
