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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today’s card at Mahoning Valley features 10 races, headlined by a mix of competitive claiming events and allowance contests for Ohio-breds. The program showcases the typical winter grind at the Youngstown oval, where track condition and early speed often dictate the outcomes. The feature race appears to be Race 8, a solid Starter Optional Claiming event at one mile, drawing a field of seasoned veterans including the classy Strava. With a heavy presence of top local connections like trainers Anthony Farrior, Robert Cline, and Jeffrey Radosevich, expect the usual jockey-trainer combinations to dominate the proceedings.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast for Youngstown, OH Expect typical February conditions in the Mahoning Valley. The forecast calls for cold temperatures, likely hovering in the low-to-mid 30s°F. Skies will likely be overcast with a chance of flurries or light snow showers, which is standard for this time of year.
Track Surface The dirt surface at Mahoning Valley during the winter months is often sealed to protect it from moisture. In these freezing temperatures, the track can play “tight” and fast if the moisture content is low, but if there is precipitation, expect a “Good” or “Sloppy” surface that can favor horses with previous off-track form. The likely condition is Fast or Good.
Track Bias Analysis
Sprint Races (5-6 Furlongs) Mahoning Valley generally favors early speed, especially in the winter. The stretch run is relatively short, making it difficult for deep closers to make up ground unless the pace is blistering. Inside posts (1-3) are often advantageous in 6-furlong sprints, as horses can save ground on the turn. Expect a mild speed bias favoring Early and Early/Presser types.
Route Races (1 Mile) The one-mile distance involves two turns. Speed still holds well, but the race often sets up for stalkers who can sit just off the pace and make a move on the far turn. The “garden spot” is sitting second or third along the rail. Avoid horses drawn very wide (posts 8+) unless they have enough tactical speed to clear the field before the first turn.
Race 1 – Claiming (5 Furlongs)
Post Time: 12:15 PM
Pace Analysis
At the short 5-furlong distance, the break is critical. Thedayofthegrey possesses ample back class and speed, likely pushing the pace from the outside. El Marro also has shown flashes of early foot. Expect a contested pace which might set up for a stalker, but in a 5-furlong dash, the horse who makes the lead first often holds it.
Analysis of Contenders
Thedayofthegrey is a standout on class. Dropping into this claiming level, he fits superior speed figures compared to the field. Trainer Robert Cline has him spotted aggressively here. If he breaks clean, he is the one to catch. Ilikethat trains under the Timothy Hamm banner and draws the outside post which is favorable for a stalking trip in a sprint. Into Gold draws the rail, which can be a double-edged sword at 5 furlongs, but if he breaks sharply, he can save all the ground.
Longshots
El Marro is a seasoned 9-year-old who knows the oval well. While his recent form may be spotty, his experience at this distance gives him a chance to hit the board if the pace collapses.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post Time: 12:43 PM
Pace Analysis
Maiden claiming races at the bottom level often feature erratic pace scenarios. Justtakethecannoli draws the rail and may be forced to send. Hero Panther and Hero Queen from the Loudin-Smith barn add intrigue to the pace picture.
Analysis of Contenders
Justtakethecannoli has respectable connections, and the rail draw allows Renzo Diaz to dictate the trip. In a field void of standout speed, this filly could control the race. Daddy’s Lil Chef is a 3-year-old facing older mares, which provides a significant weight advantage. Trainer Kevin Buttigieg often ships ready-to-run types, and Angel Diaz is a strong aggressive rider suited for this oval. Ruby River should find the class relief helpful and fits well in the middle of the pack.
Race 3 – Claiming (1 Mile)
Post Time: 01:11 PM
Pace Analysis
Hite and Orville B are likely to show initiative. In these lower-level route claimers, the pace is rarely scorching. A moderate tempo favors horses near the front.
Analysis of Contenders
Orville B teams up with trainer Saul Morales and jockey Luis Batista. This horse has shown consistency at this level and should sit a perfect stalking trip just off the leaders. Derby Included is another entrant who fits well here, possessing back class and handling the two-turn distance comfortably. Hite draws inside and will likely save ground; if allowed to set a loose lead, he could steal the race.
Race 4 – Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post Time: 01:39 PM
Pace Analysis
A sprint for fillies and mares where Siofra looks to be one of the primary speed elements. Complexity Girl carrying light weight might also show early foot.
Analysis of Contenders
Siofra is a strong contender with the tactical speed to secure a good position early. Trainer David Wolochuk is efficient in these spots. Credit Check comes from the Robert Gorham barn; drawing the outside post allows jockey Salazar Becerra to watch the break and slide into a stalking position without getting trapped. Razzberry Ripple is a consistent type for Saul Morales who is usually in the mix for the exotics.
Race 5 – Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post Time: 02:07 PM
Pace Analysis
A large field suggests a chaotic start. J J Valentin has ample speed and draws the middle. Spice Bag on the rail will need to hustle.
Analysis of Contenders
J J Valentin is trained by Jeffrey Radosevich and ridden by Luis Rivera. When these connections team up in a claiming race, the horse is often the one to beat. Gucci Vision will be ridden by Deshawn Parker, who excels at saving ground; expect him to be closing late if the pace heats up. Parade of Fears fits the class structure well and has high-percentage trainer Jay Bernardini in his corner.
Longshots
Quarantino is drawn wide with an apprentice allowance. If the track is playing to outside closers, he could affect the payouts.
Race 6 – Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post Time: 02:35 PM
Pace Analysis
She’s So Sexy is a naturally quick mare who will likely vie for the lead. Shipshewana also has early foot. The pace should be honest.
Analysis of Contenders
She’s So Sexy is the consensus top pick. Another Jeffrey Radosevich trainee, she has been in good form and finds a soft spot here to bounce back. Fiveminutsofpasion has shown the ability to close and could pick up the pieces if the favorite falters. Shipshewana is the rail horse for Robert Gorham; if she breaks well, she is a threat to wire the field. Lil Sweezey hails from the Anthony Farrior barn, making her a dangerous entry regardless of recent form.
Race 7 – Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Post Time: 03:03 PM
Pace Analysis
Stormed Out has speed and the rail. Ghost of Londyn is also quick. This race features experienced Ohio-breds who know how to lean on each other.
Analysis of Contenders
Stormed Out draws the rail, giving him the shortest path. If he holds his rail position, he is the primary contender. Man’s Choice is a grinder from the Richard Zielinski barn who often hits the board. Tahlequah Joe is a consistent check-earner who should be running late.
Race 8 – Starter Optional Claiming (1 Mile)
Post Time: 03:31 PM
Pace Analysis
A high-quality field where Strava has tactical speed. Colonel Poppy and Sunset Town can also move early. Expect a strategic pace where position going into the far turn is pivotal.
Analysis of Contenders
Strava is the clear class of the field. Trained by Anthony Farrior, this gelding has competed in significantly tougher company and is currently in sharp form. Sunset Town has been consistent and fits the speed figures required to challenge the favorite. Atkins is a consistent sort who rarely runs a bad race and figures in the mix.
Race 9 – Allowance (1 Mile)
Post Time: 03:59 PM
Pace Analysis
Allowance runners often respect pace more than claimers. Jus Too Fly and The Chalk look like the main protagonists.
Analysis of Contenders
Jus Too Fly has been knocking on the door and the one-mile distance suits his running style. The Chalk represents the Radosevich/Rivera combination again; in an allowance race, these connections usually mean business, and the horse likely has the best recent speed figures. Handsome Pants draws the rail and could save ground to sneak a share.
Race 10 – Allowance (1 Mile)
Post Time: 04:27 PM
Pace Analysis
Ohio-bred allowance to close the card. Cowgirlsluvme gets a huge weight break. Heidi N Seek is a veteran mare who might try to slow it down.
Analysis of Contenders
Cowgirlsluvme is the only 3-year-old in the field facing older mares. The weight advantage is massive at a mile in the winter mud; if she can handle the distance, she could upset the older horses. Heidi N Seek is an experienced mare who has faced tougher company and is a major player on class if healthy. Lucky’s Prize is a consistent type who figures to be in the mix for the placings.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Luis Rivera is the dominant rider at Mahoning Valley. When he rides for Farrior or Radosevich, it is a high-percentage move. He excels at getting horses out of the gate and securing position. Rocco Bowen is a very strong finisher to watch on closers or horses that need a strong hand in the stretch. Fernando Salazar Becerra is an excellent gate rider and often aggressive early, making him a good choice for sprint races on the rail. Angel Diaz is known for aggressive rides and is not afraid to send a horse to the lead.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Anthony Farrior is the leading trainer who wins at a high percentage. His horses are usually spotted perfectly in classes where they can win. Jeffrey Radosevich is the dominant force in the claiming ranks with a massive stable; entries off a claim often improve immediately. Robert Cline is a specialist with Ohio-breds, and his horses often outrun their odds in state-bred events. Robert Gorham is particularly dangerous with speed horses and younger runners.
