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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Oaklawn Park offers a 10-race Saturday card featuring a mix of maiden, claiming, and stakes events, all on the main dirt track at sprint and route distances. The highlight is the $150,000 Nodouble Breeders’ Stakes (Race 8), a six-furlong sprint for accredited Arkansas-breds and a rubber match between Bohemian Bo and Navy Seal, who have split the last two editions of this race. Field sizes are solid throughout, generally ranging from 8 to 13 runners, which supports competitive racing and deep exotic pools.
The undercard includes multiple maiden claimers and time-restricted claimers that draw large, evenly matched fields. Several entrants appear on recent scratch lists, including Special Ops in Race 1, Engagement and Silvertown in Race 5, Bohemian Bo in Race 8, and Excel Calculator in Race 10, though they are expected to compete today.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Hot Springs calls for a high around 60 to 61 degrees this afternoon with partly cloudy skies and north winds near 10 to 15 mph. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the low to mid 30s under clear skies, following a warmer day on Friday when the high reached approximately 73 degrees. There has been no meaningful recent precipitation and humidity is moderate, pointing strongly toward a fast main track throughout the card.
Given the dry conditions and modest breeze, the surface should play consistently firm and fast, traditionally favoring horses with speed or tactical positioning, especially in sprints.
Track and Post Position Bias
Recent meet data at Oaklawn show a clear pattern by distance and configuration. In dirt sprints, posts 4 to 6 have been the most productive, winning about 41 percent of races with 85 total wins compared to 66 wins for posts 1 to 3. Early speed has been effective, but stalking types drawn in the middle of the gate have been particularly successful.
In two-turn routes at 1 1/16 miles, the distribution is much more even by post, with posts 1 to 3 and 7 and outward each winning 26 races and posts 4 to 6 winning 25, creating a largely neutral post profile. These races tend to favor stalkers and closers due to the long run to the first turn, which allows outside runners to secure position without excessive cost.
At one mile, which uses the auxiliary finish line, inside posts have been more advantageous. Data from the prior meet show posts 1 to 3 winning about 40 percent of mile races, posts 4 to 6 winning 36 percent, and outside posts 7 and outward winning only 24 percent. One-mile events favor speed and tactical runners due to the shorter stretch and configuration.
Race-by-Race Summary of Key Horses
Race 1 – Maiden Optional Claiming – 6 Furlongs
The pace projects to be controlled by Halo Music from an outside draw, with Special Ops and Feral sitting just off the lead. Feral is a strong contender off Saratoga form and a class edge for a high-percentage barn. General Graham is an important first-time starter, a Triple Crown-nominated colt for Eddie Kenneally with strong works and the leading rider aboard, suggesting significant upside. Special Ops, turning back to a sprint from routes, and Camino, who has run well locally, form the main secondary group, while Fatguyinlittlecoat and Rochester offer longshot upside with class and rider upgrades.
Race 2 – Claiming N2L – 1 1/16 Miles
Pace appears modest, likely controlled by Classically on or near the lead. Wind Rider is a key horse, dropping in class, recently gelded, and stretching back out to two turns for a strong claiming barn. Promissione is a consensus contender from the rail with solid recent efforts at this level. The coupled Asmussen entry Classically and Tis Charming adds depth, with one likely forward and the other closing. Heavenly Deacon provides secondary or longshot appeal in exotics off improved recent form.
Race 3 – Arkansas-bred Claiming N2L – 6 Furlongs
Several have speed, including Texas Sequoia, Not for Everyone, and Very Cosmopolitan, creating an honest pace. Not for Everyone drops to a more realistic spot after facing tougher and owns a sharp win off the layoff, making her a leading contender. Texas Sequoia is a reliable state-bred mare whose figures consistently stack up favorably, especially in her third start off the layoff. Very Cosmopolitan, for a strong local barn, fits well as a secondary player despite a wide draw. Maximum to Excel is an improving longshot who may take a step forward in her third start this form cycle.
Race 4 – Claiming $8,000 – 1 Mile
The inside bias at one mile is important here. Khozy My Boy draws the rail after several wide trips and drops into time-restricted company, making him a major factor. Hoodlum is the primary class horse, a recent best-bet type with strong open-company form now dropping into this condition, though his outside post is a minor concern at a mile. Global Empire has competitive recent races at slightly higher levels and projects a stalking trip from an outside draw. Horses like Taishan and Lea Me Be (if in) offer secondary depth but require improvement.
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming $24,000 (Fillies) – 6 Furlongs
This is a large, chaotic maiden-claiming sprint. Pace should be honest with several unknowns and some outside speed. Engagement gets major class relief dropping out of maiden special weight company for a new barn that excels with this move, and she picks up the leading rider. Justice Addition is a logical favorite and consensus choice for a productive meet barn, with a good draw and competitive figures. What’s the Tea, dropping and adding blinkers, is a key secondary filly for a high-percentage trainer with class-droppers. Gwen to Win and Divine Celina offer value as exotics types, with the latter likely to improve if she handles her equipment and the gate better in her second local try.
Race 6 – Claiming N3L $24,000 – 1 Mile
The pace should be fair with Tejas and Shepherd forward and Brilliant Man tracking. Brilliant Man is a leading contender stepping up in class off a strong win and a solid effort against better; he fits well for the Asmussen barn. Barricade is a key closer and morning-line favorite for a high-percentage barn, coming off a strong run against tougher and projecting a good trip if he repeats that effort. Calycanthus is an unknown on dirt but has competitive form on turf and synthetic and could move up significantly if he handles the new surface. Shepherd is a supporting player for a strong barn, and Lear is a live longshot from a good inside post at a distance where inside gates have been productive.
Race 7 – Claiming $20,000 – 6 Furlongs
With several speed and pressers signed on, including Austrian Navy, Progeny, First Hill, and Little Sister Sue, this race could set up for off-the-pace types. Austrian Navy is a primary contender dropping from starter allowance company and returning to a more suitable level, with local experience and an advantageous inside draw. Bolt on the Rocks is the main closer and morning-line favorite, well drawn outside and dropping in class, though six furlongs may not be her absolute best distance. Icy River is an important secondary mare for a barn that excels with claims, off a bullet work and with a good local rider. Miranda’s Rocky and Abitibi add depth as mid-priced or longshot exotics types.
Race 8 – Nodouble Breeders’ Stakes – 6 Furlongs
Bohemian Bo is the likely lone speed and key pace horse, having been on the lead early in most of his career starts and owning strong course affinity. Navy Seal, last year’s winner, is the main closer and defending champion who narrowly missed to Bohemian Bo in a December state-bred allowance and benefits from being allowed to settle and make one run. Touchdown Arkansas is an important tactical threat drawn outside, capable of applying pressure to Bohemian Bo and turning the race into a more favorable scenario for Navy Seal. One Ten Stadium and Willow Creek Road are closing or stalking types with stakes credentials and Arkansas-bred stakes form who project as solid underneath contenders at likely higher odds.
Race 9 – Ratings Handicap (Fillies and Mares) – 6 Furlongs
Pace should be honest but not suicidal, with Spring Dancer, Miss Arlington, and Pistol all capable of contesting the lead. Titled Lady is a major contender and likely favorite when racing with Lasix, having won four of her last four starts under that condition and running far better when allowed the medication. Swiftwind is a key secondary mare with five wins in her last six sprints, tactical speed, and a favorable outside post. Liuzza is a strong closing type returning to a surface and track she has handled well, with her last turf start offering a built-in excuse. Pistol and Spring Dancer add pace and depth, with the former carrying top weight but owning dangerous front-running ability at a price.
Race 10 – Claiming $10,000 – 1 1/16 Miles
This is a wide-open closing route with several pace players, including Patch O’Brien, Camp Daddy, Wartime Hero, and Texas Red Hot. Excel Calculator is a principal contender dropping in class and drawing better after a series of wide posts versus tougher; he now gets a leading local rider and fits well on prior form. Eastside Cool is a proven horse-for-course with multiple local wins who drops back to claiming company and returns to a successful level and distance. Little Steven is an overlay-type closer who has already beaten several of today’s rivals and has shown a past ability to string together wins when in form. Wartime Hero, from a favorable mid-gate draw, and Manfredi, with a top visiting rider in a cheap claimer, round out the primary and secondary group of contenders.
