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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today’s eleven-race card at Oaklawn Park is headlined by the Grade 3 Bayakoa Stakes, featuring a talented field of older fillies and mares. The program is balanced with high-quality allowance optional claiming events and deep fields in the maiden and claiming ranks. With large field sizes throughout the afternoon, including several races with 12 to 14 entrants, the card offers competitive racing and significant depth.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast: Partly cloudy skies with a high near 52 degrees. Track Condition: Fast. Turf/Dirt: Dirt (All races).
The lack of significant precipitation in the last 48 hours suggests the dirt surface will be tight and conducive to quick times. The rail is set at 0 feet, providing a standard configuration for all main track races.
Track Bias Analysis
Oaklawn Park typically favors horses with tactical speed, particularly in six-furlong sprints. While the rail has been fair, early races should be watched closely; if the inside path appears deep, horses breaking from the rail in sprints may be at a disadvantage. In route races, specifically those at 1 1/16 miles, the run to the first turn is fair, often rewarding horses that can secure a stalking position in the second or third path just off the speed.
1st Race Analysis
Post Time: 12:00 PM CST Distance: 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis: Suncroft and Waco appear to be the primary pace factors. Suncroft drops in class and may try to clear from the middle, while Waco possesses early foot. If they engage early, it could set up a stalker.
Contender Breakdown:
- Key Contenders: Waco (6) draws well in the middle of the gate and shows consistent speed figures fitting this level. Crew Dragon (9) is a veteran closer who should be running late if the pace is honest.
- Secondary Choices: Suncroft (4) takes a significant drop in class; his back class is superior to this field if he retains his old form.
- Longshots: Frack Baby (1) is a consistent runner who rarely runs a bad race and is a candidate to hit the board.
2nd Race Analysis
Post Time: 12:31 PM CST Distance: 1 Mile
Pace Analysis: A large field where Winter’s Ghost and Red Mountain have the tactical speed to secure forward positions. The break is critical due to the short run to the first turn.
Contender Breakdown:
- Key Contenders: Winter’s Ghost (9) finds a soft spot after facing tougher company and has the tactical speed to avoid traffic. Red Mountain (8) has shown flashes of ability and fits well if he can clear early traffic.
- Secondary Choices: Wartime Hero (6) is a dropper who merits respect based on his best previous efforts.
- Longshots: Booming (1) draws the rail and could sneak up the inside for a share if the rail is playing fair.
3rd Race Analysis
Post Time: 01:01 PM CST Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Pace Analysis: Tingus Pingus stretches out and should send from the inside. Horse of the Sea also has speed, likely resulting in a moderate pace.
Contender Breakdown:
- Key Contenders: Horse of the Sea (9) fits this condition perfectly and should sit just off the leaders. Tingus Pingus (1) is the main speed threat and could be dangerous if allowed to set slow fractions.
- Secondary Choices: French Knight (2) will be coming from off the pace and should appreciate the two-turn distance.
- Longshots: Highly Connected (10) has upside and could improve in his second route attempt.
4th Race Analysis
Post Time: 01:32 PM CST Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Pace Analysis: Track Phantom is a dedicated front-runner who will likely go for the lead. Classic Car Wash and Sandman will likely stalk him.
Contender Breakdown:
- Key Contenders: Track Phantom (6) is a graded stakes performer and the class of the race; his speed is dangerous if he is ready off the layoff. Catching Freedom (3) is a deep closer who will benefit if the pace heats up.
- Secondary Choices: Sandman (1) is a consistent grinder who is a safe option for exotics.
- Longshots: Sir Greylind (9) loves Oaklawn Park and often outruns his odds at this venue.
5th Race Analysis
Post Time: 02:03 PM CST Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Pace Analysis: Overcome Adversity and Vino Tiempo have speed in this full field. The pace is expected to be honest.
Contender Breakdown:
- Key Contenders: Overcome Adversity (2) has the speed to clear and stamina to hold on. Pronghorn (9) represents the Asmussen barn and fits well against this company.
- Secondary Choices: Kerry’s Kiss (3) is a consistent type who is usually in the mix for minor awards.
- Longshots: Gin’s Beach Road (4) could improve with the added distance.
6th Race Analysis
Post Time: 02:34 PM CST Distance: 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis: Severe Clear is very fast and will likely be the one to catch. Ragtime Sizzle will try to keep up.
Contender Breakdown:
- Key Contenders: Severe Clear (1) has superior speed figures; if she breaks clean, she is the one to beat. What’s Her Number (12) drops in class and will be running late if the pace collapses.
- Secondary Choices: Chica Arma (2) is a solid check-earner.
- Longshots: Ragtime Sizzle (5) has early speed and could hang on for a piece.
7th Race Analysis
Post Time: 03:06 PM CST Distance: 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis: Time Andbeyond and Chromerunner have speed in this sprint for Arkansas-breds. Natorade adds to the pace scenario.
Contender Breakdown:
- Key Contenders: Time Andbeyond (1) is a consistent state-bred runner who should sit a perfect trip. Chromerunner (2) draws a good post to save ground.
- Secondary Choices: Battleoftheravine (4) is a closer who needs a hot pace to be effective.
- Longshots: Natorade (3) is speedy but often fades; potential for a minor share.
8th Race Analysis
Post Time: 03:38 PM CST Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Pace Analysis: Determinedly has speed and class. Yellow Brick will be forwardly placed.
Contender Breakdown:
- Key Contenders: Determinedly (3) drops in class and looks much the best with superior back class. Yellow Brick (7) is in good form and is the main threat.
- Secondary Choices: Flying Martini (4) is a consistent grinder who will be running at the end.
- Longshots: Hero’s Medal (1) draws the rail and could save ground.
9th Race Analysis (Bayakoa Stakes – G3)
Post Time: 04:13 PM CST Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Pace Analysis: Nerazurri has speed from the rail. Quietside will be close. Nitrogen will likely stalk the pace.
Contender Breakdown:
- Key Contenders: Nitrogen (7) is the heavy favorite with graded stakes class and is training well. Quietside (4) loves this track and is the main alternative.
- Secondary Choices: Nerazurri (1) could get brave on the lead if left alone.
- Longshots: Miss Authentic (5) is a deep closer who could pick up a share.
10th Race Analysis
Post Time: 04:45 PM CST Distance: 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis: Surveillance is a class act. Baxley has speed. The pace is expected to be fast.
Contender Breakdown:
- Key Contenders: Surveillance (13) is a graded stakes veteran dropping into allowance company and should close strongly. Inexorable (9) is a strong contender who has been facing tough heats.
- Secondary Choices: Baxley (3) has speed but might face pressure.
- Longshots: Ghost of Midnight (2) is consistent and could sneak into the exotics.
11th Race Analysis
Post Time: 05:17 PM CST Distance: 6 Furlongs
Pace Analysis: Buckeye Favorite and Divine Celina will take money in this maiden claiming sprint.
Contender Breakdown:
- Key Contenders: Buckeye Favorite (8) gets a top jockey and finds a soft field. Divine Celina (2) drops in class and has speed.
- Secondary Choices: Private Speaker (1) has experience and draws the rail.
- Longshots: Rose Street (10) is a lightly raced type who could surprise.
