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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Welcome to a fantastic Saturday of racing at the Great Race Place on February 14, 2026. The winter meet features a competitive nine-race card, highlighted by the Grade 3 San Marcos Stakes. The fields offer a balanced mix of dirt sprints, middle-distance turf routes, and exhilarating downhill turf sprints.
Weather and Track Conditions
Weather for Arcadia: Currently 48°F and clear with periodic clouds, with 4 mph winds from the northeast. The daily forecast for Saturday, February 14, 2026 (today) anticipates a high of 65°F, a low of 49°F, and cloudy conditions with a 10% chance of rain.
Track and Post Bias Analysis
During the winter meet, the main dirt track strongly favors early speed, especially in sprints, with horses on or near the lead holding a massive advantage. Inside post positions one through three also show a statistical edge on the dirt. On the turf, flat sprints play fairly but tactical speed helps. The unique downhill turf course typically disadvantages inside posts due to the early right-hand turn, favoring outside speed horses. Turf routes generally favor stalkers breaking from middle posts.
Race 1
Pace Analysis
A 6.5-furlong turf sprint for maiden fillies featuring a lively expected pace with early duels.
Key Contenders
Troisieme Etoile (1) has strong connections and early foot. Maggles McGee (9) shows significant morning improvement and tactical speed.
Secondary Choices
Marla Hooch (6) will stalk and close. Conquest Sue (3) has the pedigree to pick up pieces.
Longshots
Good Golly Dolly (2) will rate back and could close if the pace collapses.
Race 2
Pace Analysis
A 1-mile dirt claiming event with a subdued pace scenario.
Key Contenders
Love Our Family (5) is the controlling speed and a wire-to-wire threat. Northern Rose (1) is a seasoned veteran drawing the rail.
Secondary Choices
Unbridled Scholar (6) can close from mid-pack. Lady Laoban (2) has tactical speed for an inside-out trip.
Longshots
Misty Dancer (4) steps up but has a grinding style suited for the distance.
Race 3
Pace Analysis
A 6-furlong turf sprint promising a rapid early tempo.
Key Contenders
Corporal Violette (IRE) (8) has a late kick perfectly suited for a fast pace. Shangrilama (IRE) (2) possesses excellent tactical speed.
Secondary Choices
Tam’s Little Angel (3) is a hard-hitting stalker. Invincible Molly (GB) (5) brings good turf form.
Longshots
Issa Court (4) has back class and closing ability if the leaders stop.
Race 4
Pace Analysis
A 1-mile dirt allowance optional claiming race with a clear speed duel expected.
Key Contenders
Dorie Miller (2) is the class of the field with towering speed figures. Stay in Line (3) is the logical alternative who can sit off the duel.
Secondary Choices
Theresasilverlinin (4) provides an off-the-pace option. Buds N Suds (1) is a deep closer needing a pace meltdown.
Longshots
Sexy Blue (5) tries a new configuration today.
Race 5
Pace Analysis
A 6.5-furlong downhill turf allowance race ensuring a fast opening quarter.
Key Contenders
Infinitum (1) has pure speed from the rail. Check’s On the Way (9) is drawn perfectly outside to stalk and pounce.
Secondary Choices
Bro Bro (8) possesses a strong late kick. Stylishlyacclaimed (7) has tactical speed to sit in the second flight.
Longshots
Billy Joe Shaver (3) has back class and closing ability.
Race 6
Pace Analysis
A 6-furlong dirt maiden claiming sprint.
Key Contenders
Rocky Colavito (2) showed brief speed in his debut and should move forward. One Step Beyond (3) can stalk the leaders and has encouraging workouts.
Secondary Choices
Cotton Mouth (1) will be sent hard from the rail. Allequin Summer (5) could improve with a class drop.
Longshots
I’malwaysthirsty (4) needs a complete form reversal to factor.
Race 7
Pace Analysis
The Grade 3 San Marcos Stakes at 1.25 miles on the downhill turf with a measured early pace.
Key Contenders
Gold Phoenix (IRE) (9) is a seasoned graded stakes veteran with a devastating late turn of foot. Truly Quality (4) gets a major rider upgrade and will sit closer to the pace.
Secondary Choices
Stay Hot (7) has tactical speed and trains sharply. Endlessly (1) is a class act who needs a good trip from the inside.
Longshots
Mondego (GB) (5) offers value underneath with a mid-pack grinding style.
Race 8
Pace Analysis
A 5.5-furlong dirt maiden sprint with a furious expected pace.
Key Contenders
Video Review (9) shows blazing morning speed. Go Trigger Cut (8) has an outside tactical advantage to track the speed.
Secondary Choices
Pop Paul (2) will be closing late. Wild King (5) is an off-the-pace type.
Longshots
Treximo (11) draws the far outside but could surprise with a sharp break.
Race 9
Pace Analysis
A 6.5-furlong turf maiden sprint for fillies and mares.
Key Contenders
Miss Kitty Boom (9) is ultra-consistent with great tactical speed. Sandy Street (3) has high-profile connections and finishes strongly.
Secondary Choices
Emmy Blue (5) will be part of the early pace. Mancuso (8) could provide a good late run.
Longshots
Convo (2) is lightly raced and open to improvement.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Juan Hernandez continues to ride at an elite level and is the go-to rider for top barns, especially on turf favorites. Kazushi Kimura excels at saving ground and finding late gaps on the grass. Veteran Mike Smith remains exceptionally dangerous in graded stakes routes with his unmatched pacing and timing.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Philip D’Amato is a turf powerhouse in Southern California with live runners throughout the card. Doug O’Neill has his barn firing in both dirt sprints and turf events. Steve Knapp is highly effective with claimers on the main track, frequently exploiting the early speed bias.
